Talkin' Baseball (MLB Podcast) - 353 | Which Teams Already Defeated Vegas?

Episode Date: June 23, 2021

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Hello and welcome to talking baseball. It is the midweek episode, and we are going to take a look at which teams have already beaten their over, under, or lost to it. Let's do it. Hello and welcome to talking baseball, brought to you by Draft Kings. Thank you very much for stopping by

and hanging out with us for a little bit in the middle of the week. My name is Jimmy. His name is Jake Trevor in California and BPD. Producing behind the desk. And Trev, you've been kind of tiptoeing and dibling and dabbling in this for a while, but we're going to officially look and see how we are done on our preseason over-unders, which and then will take us into conversations about how teams are doing compared to what people thought they would do and why they're doing better or worse, I guess.

That's kind of the show. Jake's got some facts about each team to back up and support what's going on. Jake, how are you doing? James, Trevor Plouffe, Beattie. D, everyone tuning in. Hope you're having a good time. As we record this, Arizona Dimebacks are on a one-game heater.

So that is pretty huge. I think as we'll talk about with some of these over-unders, it's not too late to get hot. It's not too late to get hot. 90-plus baseball games left. I'm doing well. I had a coffee all day.

I just took my first sip, so I'm really excited to do that. Like, not get a headache and stuff, so I'm feeling good about that. So, yeah, Trev, Treve Yellow, cross the pond. How you doing? You're something else, man. I got to tell you that right now. Really dumb.

I'm doing good. A nice little workout this morning. I told you guys, I got the kids at Summer Camp. So I got a little bit of freedom. That fits me really well. So I got a little espresso today. I'm kind of taking my time drinking it. we've gone through the over under sheet.

I think we're doing pretty good. A little foreshadowing. I don't know. I actually didn't look at your guys. I looked at mine and I think I'm doing pretty good. So, I mean, it's just with my week last week and maybe this episode is going to be my episode. And we're just like, we're just going, baby.

You know what I'm saying? Just that way. I get it. There are, man, I'm doing, I don't know. Okay, I guess. Not great. Oh, man. He's not going to just.

He's an honest guy. I'm not going to lie. I have. With his little coffee cup, that'll make you feel better. Yeah, I haven't been able to get into a routine that I like at all. Routine guy. I got like two more weeks in this house before I move into the new house. And I'm hoping that work from home situation is better.

But the commute's going to get doubled. So then we'll have to find a new routine. We'll see. Okay. I know those type of people. Olivia is a routine oriented And when that gets thrown off You just kind of got to let him go

Find your path again Well yeah I've been working from home in the mornings and stuff But the sheds there it's annoying Trelly We're freedom guys Freedom I was laughing when Trep said that in his speech

I'm trying to make you feel better Jim I just don't know what to say I'm someone Freedom works well with me He likes his freedom I do a lot of the countries, man. I am interested in this. So, you know, last episode, we found that new baseball reference page that does projected playoffs and all that stuff.

But then they give there, with 90% accuracy, what they think is the threshold for best final record for each team and worst final record for each team. Now, obviously, this doesn't take everything into account. It doesn't take into account that one team might trade away all their good players. The Rockies may trade Trevor's story and everyone else, and then their outlook changes drastically. It doesn't take into account even, I think, like schedule, like a hardness of schedule or whatever. But it's still interesting because according to them, Trev, there are 11 teams. Let me double check. One, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, ten, eleven teams out of the 30,

that are locked into over or under that they think they can, they are set in stone. If you bet this team to hit the under, good job because there's no way they can get out from this. I'd like to know the data how much they've ran this, like in what it all consumes and whatnot. But I kind of, you know, computers.

We are going to. Yeah, you know, I'm running. I'm running hot on computers. I think we should definitely circle, we should circle these 11s. So we all, the three of us have, what was it, seven teams that we all agreed on? No, a lot more than that. More than that. One, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, ten, eleven, twelve.

So we had 12 teams we all agreed on. So we're going to circle up on those. I think we should circle the 11 that the computers have circled as already done. Because guess what? Computers coming for that ass. I guarantee you that one of those computers that's got a lock will not be locked. So here's what I'm going to do. First, I'm going to give you the teams that we didn't agree on,

but the computer says it's locked up, right? Then we'll go to the ones we did agree and we'll see. So the first one is a big one. The Boston Red Sox, Trev. Yes. The computers say the Boston Red Sox's worst case scenario would have them with an 82, win season. Their over under was 80 and a half wins. So they think that the Red Sox are hitting the over no matter what. Now, Jake, is this one that you agree with the computer on? Or do you think the Red Sox can?

It would be tough to put an argument against this. The Red Sox have looked great this year. You know, I was, my speech I said about the Red Sox from the start was wait for stay in it till sale gets back. They've done a lot more than that. And as we've started talking about, they've got some tradeability. They can make upgrades. They didn't, this offseason, they didn't just throw the bag at anyone. They kind of just made some strategic moves with flexibility, literally and figuratively, if you're talking Kike and Marwin or, you know, throwing out the one-year contract for Gary Richards. So yeah, you have to be feeling good about that. I would, if I could flip this one, I obviously would. I would throw out a caveat.

if Boston collapses, they do like to collapse hard, but it doesn't feel like it's happening this year. What's interesting here, Trev, is that they're on pace for 96 wins, and baseball references saying that their best case scenario is 97 wins. So they kind of think they will slow down a little bit, but not terribly. I think strength of schedule comes into play there, because they're saying they're not going to play better than they already have, but the best case is that they just stay consistently winning at the pace they have.

What do you think, Trev? You think they got it? I think they're going to be over the 80 and a half, 100%. I don't think that's really any question. The computer seems to agree. I think the computer looked at my notes and then checked his notes and now he had his answer. You know what I'm saying? Because I did take the over on this.

And the only reason I took the over, I'm going to be honest here. I think I probably even said this when I did it was Heim. Mm-hmm. And the pieces that he's going to bring in are going to mesh together. And, you know, it just seemed like he was up to something. And everything's kind of panned out and worked out the way they wanted. And now I'm really curious, you know, you said the computer's only given them the best case scenario of a 97 win season. And they're on pace for 96.

What does Chris Sale do for this team? We've all seen the grainy, like, bullpen footage they've been putting out on Twitter of him. It looks kind of good, man. He was on the mound at Fenway one day, throwing off the mound, feeling it a little bit. I think that's going to be, if he comes back and adds to the rotation and kind of keeps them where they've been,

because I do expect some regression from that rotation, but if he comes and can maybe push it the other way, it's a damn good team, man. Yep. All right. The next one is the Chicago Cubs. Jake, you were the only one that chose the over in preseason when we did the TPPs.

and according to the computers, they are a lock for the over. The over was 79 and a half, and baseball reference has their worst case at 80. So it's close on that end. And they have their best case at 95. They're on pace to win 88 games. So baseball reference is saying that they expect that the Cubs can pick it up in this second half and keep going even stronger. Loss Cubs.

I think you guys were thinking with your hearts instead of your brains because we all wanted the Cubbies to sell, right? They've been doing solid. That being said, like, I'm not going to go to war for the coach. Yeah, but then they signed Jock. Like, they made other moves. It sucks. It sucks that they traded you, Darvish, and they, you know,

they moved on from Schwabs and guys like that. But they brought in Jock. They also got guys back for Darvish. Like, Zach Davies has started to do some things. So I don't know. That being, like, I'm not going to war for these Cubs. Like, would it shock me if these Cubs had a, you know, a one in six week and then they're back close to 500? No, like, this NL Central is still going to be messy the rest of the way.

And even some of the team numbers I'm going through. These, the Central needs to be recircled again. Remember when we were talking Bauer-Sai Young and I saw Foolish Bailey tweeting about this the other day. that, you know, the stat has been going around about DeGroms, ERA Plus, how it's 777 or whatever, and like Bowers was one of the best evers last year at 269 or something. Bailey was saying that still wasn't adjusted to what the Central was last year. The Central couldn't hit. The team stats I've been looking over, all of these teams have some very clear weaknesses.

So I think we're going to be here in August and September saying the sloppy NL Central there's going to be a lot of highs and a lot of lows. Or will one of these GMs dig deep and do something? And I think if that's in consideration here, it's not going to be the Cubs. If the Cubs make moves at the deadline, they're going to be small. Like we already know they're cutting payroll and that kind of stuff. So I won't go to war for my Cubs, but they've been a quality team this season.

Yeah, okay. We talked about it a little bit this morning, C. Rose and I about the whole hobby bias situation, how he got pulled by Rossi. And I kind of read into it a little bit, you know, about what he said after the game. And one reporter, I forget who it was, made a good point. Like, there's a, the Cubs are doing well right now. And I'm sure everyone there wants them to keep, and maybe even add. You know, all they've ever heard was, we're going to blow this team up.

Brian's going to be gone. Who's going to stay? Who's not going to stay? Rossi knows there's a huge road trip coming up. They go to the Dodgers, they go to Milwaukee, they go to Cincinnati. I think he was trying to make a point with Bias being like, look, we need to be laser-focused, sharp as can be, so we can stick together through this. This is going to be a hell of a road trip for us.

We're doing well now, but we need to continue or maybe even get a little bit better. I think that's kind of where they're at. Like you said, Jake, to your point, they could go out here and get their butts kicked on the road trip, and now they're sitting closer to 500. That weighs on them. Then all of a sudden ownership goes, you know what? boom, like, let's go the other way. So I think this is a big, big road trip for them coming up, a big test.

See, they've been good. I mean, you're making me almost want to fade my lock. So that's where we're at. All right. Next up is a team I kind of got wrong because worst case, baseball reference has 56 wins and the over under was 56 and a half, which would put them under, but it's very close. and I actually disagree with the computer here for reasons we previously mentioned.

It's the Pittsburgh Pirates. They're on pace for the over. They're on pace for a 57 win season. Let's go Pirates. And the over under was 56 and a half. They say the best cases they win 71 games. They've been losing a lot lately, but I expect this Pirates team to trade some pieces.

And then everyone else to not be motivated to play in September and just lose. So the worst case they do have at 56, which would be the under by half a game, I think they can get worse than that. I think that they're going to trade the people that can play. And I don't know. They could get better.

But I wouldn't say this is a lock for the over like the computer is. Treves Pirates. I'm thinking like, does this bring into factor how much Cole Tucker is going to be on the roster? Because that's the only thing I'm thinking about. they do have some trade pieces, Jim, and I will say this. I know it's kind of easy to say, like, there's nothing to play for, so they'll just give up in September. I think a lot of the guys they're going to come up have a lot to play for, and they're going to be playing hard.

Are they going to be a team built to win? No, but I don't think, you know, anybody's just going to kind of roll over there. So, you know, they got out to a decent start. I know, like you said, they've been losing some games. Key Brian Hayes could carry them to a bunch of wins in a row. So I kind of like the over. Me and Jake had them over at the beginning. I don't think they land at that 71 and 91 mark.

I think that's a, I think if they can salvage and stay like 99 losses, I think that's like a perfect scenario for them. I do like that. The dodging the Hyundai fundo spot. That's a good spot. It does mean something. That's something to play for.

You and I both know that from those, the 2015 twins. Was that our? 2011. 2011 twins. I get all our ears. You, me, Dozier. Yeah, no, I think Brian Hayes piece is a big part of it. I'll be interested to see who they do trade away.

They don't have a ton of, like, pieces you circle. Like for the Colorado Rockies, you circle Trevor Story and one of the pitchers, John Gray, Hermann Marquez, and you say, yeah, if the rocks lose them, the bottom falls out significantly. they haven't had Key Brian Hayes a lot Who knows what other prospies they call up We obviously love the Cole Tucker effect Frazier is a pretty big piece

They can trade away Frazier would be a big one He is having a nice year for them Yeah So yeah I mean that that would be one You definitely circle But that opens up a spot for Cole Tucker And even Clubhouse energy wise

Chad Kool has one year left He's had some good starts of late So maybe package him or something I don't know No Stephen Brault yet Chris Rose rotation. He'll be back. Back in July. Hired up, baby.

All right. The San Francisco Giants, they are a lock for the over. They're on pace for 103 wins. Baseball reference has their best case at 104 wins. They think they can sustain it or get better. They have their worst case at 88 wins. They're over under with 75.

So they might, I mean, we all got to agree with the computer. This team's a lock to hit the over. and you guys both had the over, so good job there. This is what I need to say something about computers. We need to stop and talk about computers because the computers at the beginning of the year had these guys pegged for 75 and a half. Now they changed course.

They haven't pegged for a best case scenario of 104. They're on pace for 103. So now the computers are a believer. They got a new data, Trev. Are you? I mean, I don't allow the computer. their right to change your mind.

The algorithm. Yeah, but can we still say that this same computer sucks because with the data you had, you made a bad decision. All computers suck, yeah. I think this episode should, we'll roll this into like a two-thirds of the way through the season and then an end of the season

to see how dumb this computer is because, you know, we hate computers. Sort of sick of computers, to be honest. Ever. Tampa Bay Rays have also. secured the over, which was pretty low for them. It was 85 and a half. They're on pace to win 95.

They did lose glass now. Their best case is 102. Their worst case is 87 games, which is closer than what we just did with the Giants. But they have them as a lock for the over. I think I agree with them there. I think we all agree. Jake and I had the over. Trev, you had the under.

I didn't really have a good reason for it either. When I said that I was like, this team just wins too many games all the time with people. who you don't really think are going to win you a bunch of games. So there had to be a year where they took that off. And no, they're still rolling because that's what they do. But the Glass Now thing, James and Jake and BBD, my guys, we have to talk about that a little bit. Here we don't.

It's a big loss. Glass. Yeah. And they don't, I don't know how much that's going to get off this pace. But again, the computer doesn't factor that. And we'll see, you know, with glass. out obviously sucks and we love him Chris Rose rotation. They just called up Wander and like, hey, what if he's a really good shortstop?

That also changes the outlook of their season. So we'll see with the race. They just win. Yeah. I mean, Glass is a loss though because he was averaging going six in like two thirds. A length. He was, yeah, he was averaging. No, six and a third.

He was averaging. So he was averaging going into the seventh inning. And I don't know the rest of their start. but I would guess they don't have another guy that like on average is going that deep into games and saving the bullpen, which they love to use. But still, it's a bigger loss more than just the results of the day Glass Now pitches because more bullpen guys are going to get used. Their next best guy is Yarby and he was averaging divided by five and two thirds. So Yardby's still pretty good. But that's their next best.

I mean, a lot of teams don't get length. But when you can have one guy that's going to bring the ball to seventh every time, that's awesome. But if there's one team that doesn't get affected by that, it is the race. They'll call up a guy from AAA who also gets out. It's what they do. And they'll make some smart trade and get some guy to eat innings, Jim. And I think before, I know this is going to come out after the debut,

but let's give our Wander Franco first game in the show predictions. He's facing Eduardo Rodriguez. is. Erod. Is Wander a lefty? He's a switch hitter. Oh, cool. Apo Homer,

one for four. I'm two for three. Two for three. Nice day. It's in Tampa. Crowds be gone nuts. Red Sox crowd. I think he gets a walk.

He has more walks and strikeouts in his boring. But I think he goes. Isn't it wonderful? I think he goes one for four with a double and a walk. Five PAs. Couple Kays. We all nailed it.

Colorado Rockies is the last team that baseball reference has as a lock that we did not agree on. Jake and I went over. Trev went under. And they are a lock for the over, according to baseball reference. How about that, Trev? Which team is it? I'm sorry? Colorado Rockies.

They're on pace for 66 wins. Their best case is 75. Their worst case is 60, which would be a push because the over under was 60. Kind of surprised me. Jake, you're our local Rockies expert. Do you agree with the computer here? Are they a lock for the over? As a former representative of the Rockies.

Yeah, this one I would have circled and I would love to check in at the two-thirds point and see is Trevor's story on the team, is Hermann Marquez, is John Grigg. Of course, she's not going to be on the team. What do you mean? That's what I'm saying, Trevor. I mean, we're assuming that because we'd assume they're run like a normal organization, but they haven't been for years. So let's see.

Let's see what happens with that. If they're gone, and that's with the bad teams and really good teams on this list, I'll get this out now so I don't sound repetitive. Where the computers don't factor in baseball is the Rockies could reel off a 12-game loser pretty easily. You know, on the other end of that spectrum, Dodgers, hell the Yanks. They could reel off an 11-1 stretch, something like that. And that changes your whole projection.

So the Rockies, they have been really good at home. And actually, Jakey team stats, the Rockies grade out is the best defensive team so far this year. And that's what I said they need to do. How about that getting rid of Aeronado, just catching balls in the outfield? So, no, the number is low. Like we, Trev said, losing 100 games,

that's a big thing to do in Major League Baseball. And that's why I kind of like the Rockies. You look at their rotation and you put that on a lot of other teams and you'd say, okay, like Marquez, Gray, Freeland, some of those guys. If that was like the Cubs rotation, we'd be like, all right, not bad. What about this, Jake? They have 10 more away games left than home games. So do you think that the over is a lock still?

How gross can I look instantly? It's not a lock Disagring with the computer I'm disagreeing with the computer Okay I still believe in my picks But I'm disagreeing with the computer Okay

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All right. Now, before the season, the Arizona debacks, over under with 79 Jake's snakes. All three of us said, under. They are on pace to win 46 games. We had a good read on this. Baseball reference says they can't possibly stay this bad. They have their worst case at 51 wins in 111. losses.

So good job by us. Smart read. I don't remember this episode, but I do think we were kind of shocked by that line. Like 79 is one away from 80, math. And they were not an 80-win team. I think we all said, you know, the Diamond or the Padres and the Dodgers are really good.

Like, they have to face these teams a lot. Sorry. I, you know, this is something that's tough for me to talk about now because you have a burgeoning relationship with someone you said bad things about, and then it's, you know, you grow and evolve as a couple. The one phrase I do remember saying from that TPP was, how different is this Diamondbacks roster from the Rockies? And I kind of got chewed out for that, and now here we are,

and a couple basement teams. So snakes, and they figured out, like, hey, it's not our year. these giants are good, so they've been playing for the first pick. So that's smart. We're a smart organization. Locked it on the under. The Atlanta Braves, 91 and a half games, and we all agreed that they would hit the over. We loved what they were about.

A game away from going to the World Series, retaining that young core, bringing in Charlie Morton, hopefully getting Sorroko back. Soraco? What's his name? Soroka. Why'd you make that face? You said it like our producer on Chris Roso, Shiroko. Soroka. No. Yeah, that one's not tough.

What's his last name? Mike Soroka, right? Syroka, yeah. Yeah, but you just said it two different ways. I think your first one still is what made me make a face. I think you ended with an O. I think it ends with a no. It ends with an end. It ends in an A.

Okay. That's, yes. Well, we thought he'd be back. And they're locked in for the under. On pace to win 77, their worst case would be 73, but they say their best case right now is 89 wins. And their over under was 91. Treb, this is your team.

You not only took the over, this was your team. This was my World Series champion. and I had them versus the Astros. For all the reasons you talked about when you opened up with them, Young Corps is there. They have the ability to go get guys. I thought they were for sure going to make a move at third base. Young Thick has been pretty good.

Obviously, you get rid of Ozuna. He gone. He wasn't even playing that well anyway. And, yeah, the Soroka doesn't come back. I think they're still there, Jim. I think they still have a chance. I don't know about catching 91 and a half, but maybe making some noise, sneaking into the playoffs.

I don't know, man. I was really banking on Sroka being back and kind of having such a deep rotation that the bullpen will be rested and all that good stuff. I don't really know what to say, man. I asked if I could take another team, like about a month ago, and people on the Internet said I could, but I'm just going to stick with my pick.

I think that's the, I can't set that precedent of me changing teams during the year. Okay. Wild, to their number one player in war this year, Ronald de Cunia Jr. Sure, that adds up. Number two, Ion Anderson, a talking baseball favorite. And then Oscar Yanoa, who was a sensation for a little wit. And then he broke his hand. So it was my award the other day, like, they got to make something happen.

They had the Azuna stuff go down this year. I mean, this is a team that's not supposed to miss a playoffs in this window, and it's, we're hitting danger time. Not looking good. I agree with the computers. I don't think they can hit the over. Do you think Ashland, Braves Ashland was happy when you know, broke his hand?

No. Fuck's you, damn. No. Good video. Really good video. The Detroit. No, no, no. The Houston Astros.

They're over under. was 86 and a half. We all took the over because the team is good and that was a low over under. Nuts. They're on pace to win 98 games. They have their best case as 104. They have their

worst case at 89. Another one, the computers kind of have it here. We had it and I think they botched the initial line because the asteros just have depth everywhere you look. Treve? I just don't, yeah, I mean, I don't know where they were getting that line. I guess

they had some unproven pitchers. You know, Framber, you could say he was unproven, even though he was excellent during the postseason. You know, Garcia, I guess maybe he wasn't as proven, but he's been awesome. I don't know, man. I thought we all saw it. We understood like, hey, this is a team that's been in the ALCS.

Was it four years running now? And that's what we all, we kept going back to. This team's done it and done it and done it, and they're battle tested. That's your line, Jake. That's what Bregman used. This team is battle tested. That's what we were talking.

about and here they are man they're just doing it just another friend just another friend uh yeah the lineups crazy jim i think what i'll do because if we're going through pretty much every team i think we got this up i'll mix in some of my fun facts that i was looking up on the stats uh houston's hitting uh obviously good and you know i'll think a lot of baseball fans know that they have a team ops and a year that hitting was down 802 oh number two is a lot of baseball is the Blue Jays at 773. Like, the Milwaukee Brewers, who, okay, NL, so they've got pitcher at bats in there too, but they have a team OPS of 666.

So that is like comparing every hitter in Milwaukee's lineup, a potential playoff team, is like a light-hitting middle infielder, and basically every hitter in Houston is a, you know, a corner outfielder that you're like, oh yeah, that guy hits pretty well. So they are so stacked, and that's without mentioning our guy, Odo, who just twirled another gem the other day, their bonus six starter they got before the season. What are you doing, Angels?

I got a text from Odo. Oh, picture? I said, you're a stud. And he goes, high heaters for days. Spin rate doesn't affect me at all. It's all about that little. talked about entry angle of attack. It's true, man.

He gets in that little zone, that invisible zone. I was looking at their lineup, the Astros. Michael Brantley, I was like, what kind of deal did he get? Two years, 32 million, and this guy is leading the league batting average, just being himself,

what he always does. 923 OPS, obviously that's a little bit higher than his career, but any team could have had him for not that much money. he's so damn good man he's just and he like like otto was a bonus piece to the rotation Michael brantley a bonus piece to that lineup they're good man they are good and the computers are right all right um the minnesota twins oh oh 88 and a half over under

all of us said over why would how could they why would they possibly over over over they're on pace to win 69 games. Best case scenario, they have it at 80 games. Worst case scenario, they have it at 65 games. They've locked themselves into the under. We're all wrong here. Got to agree with the computers.

I mean, it's a deep, dark hole. They could maybe, you know, have a good second half, but they're not going to have a good enough second half to get that over. I mean, when you lose Byron Buckson came back, three days into coming back from a hip

flex or strain breaks his finger on an errant fastball. Not going to come back without that guy. I mean, this is my number one bug eat of the year, I think. I believed in them as a regular season team again. I thought they were just going to be the twins and mall. And by the way, they are hitting. Their pitching has just been so bad, so bad. You mix in with that a couple.

That's a familiar story in Minnesota. Yeah, right? Like, they're like, no, I'm not going to make that. comparison but man that that team this trade deadline is going to be very interesting because they have a lot of young guys on the cusp coming up and if there's ever a team that a lot of teams say they want to reload like the twins in theory could um so i'm so fascinated to see what they do but they're bad yeah man happer's just been giving up homers yeah yeah they're uh they're they come up on the bottom of every pitching statistic.

Pineda was having a good year. I remember saying a line that pissed off some Twins fans in the PPP in the comments because I said like, you know, they're happy that they picked up Pineda and Hap and every Yankee fan would be like miserable if they picked up Pineda and Hap. But I think Penaida's been good.

But Pineda is, having a good year. You just got to hurt now. It's been an interesting carryover because when Terry Ryan left there, he was the general manager when I played there. A lot of people said that he was a bargain shopper when it came to pitching. And new regime comes in supposed

to be different. They changed the way that people are getting developed. A lot of the stuff in the minor leagues was changed. So that's good. So you want to develop some pitching obviously. But they haven't really done they've been the exact same as far as where they're at in the free agent market with pitching. It's kind of been going

for the cheap deals, the one-year deals. They're not going after you know, whether maybe they do go after these guys, but they haven't able to land any sort of significant free agent starter. And, you know, for a team that constantly needs pitching, maybe that's something they need to change.

Number three teams in giving up homers, so the worst. Baltimore Orioles, Minnesota Twins, Arizona of Diamondbacks. Mm. It's a pretty simple formula right there. And that's a...

We're mad at computers this episode. Yeah. Yeah. I don't even know how we're recording this. Is... Treve, like you were just saying with the twins, I mean, A, think about a couple guys we've already talked about Odo,

a guy from there, and Gibby, who we always talk about, you know. And just there's a formula and mid-MLB front offices that say, hey, let's be flexible and, oh, I'm getting good value on HAP and Pineda, and then tying it into what Jimmy said before, we knew those guys weren't going to be big-time difference makers. Like when you talk about Glass Now saving bullpen and how that can affect a team, those guys

didn't have that. So they were kind of flipping a coin and like, oh, well, maybe Hap or Pineda will pan out. And it's just not a difference. They've been doing that with Rich Hill and Homer Bailey, and that's kind of what they've been doing. Give us the 30-year-olds that... Get an impact guy. Speaking of, Yankees, 95 and a half. We all had the over.

And they are on an 86-win pace. Baseball reference says their best case is 93 wins. Their worst case is 78. They have them locked in as the under. I have a feeling Jake's going to disagree. agree with this and be mad at the computers. I think it's pretty fair. And I just hope they win 13 of their next 20. It's, these numbers are fair. But Jim, part of the reason these numbers are fair is because they have played an awful brand of baseball this year. So I would circle them as a

team that I think options are still open for. Luke Void is coming back. DJ LaMahue's had an atrocious start to the season. And Gary Sanchez has gotten it going. So if you put all that in the pot, we do think they're going to make a trade of some sort. I'm very interested to see how they ride into the deadline. We've been doing it on talking Yanks. If they play like the Yankees team from the past 60 games, then I agree with the absolute under. But it's been a very bad brand of baseball, and people think we're being obnoxious Yankee fans when we say that. Like, no, check with the beat riders.

Check with everyone that watches the Yankees daily. if they could actually turn a corner and look more like the Yankees. I don't know if 95 is in play. But man, I do think this team could find a hot streak and that changes all the computer projection. So it's not a lot by any means, especially if they play like they've been. But this is a team that has the ability to do a lot more.

I remember talking about the Yankees and I, you guys kind of taught me into the over. but I thought they were going to mash this season. That's why I wanted, I said, I could see the over happening. I thought this team was going to go out there and score freaking six, seven runs a game. That just hasn't happened. And maybe it turns around, like you're saying, maybe Voight comes back and they need DJ to go. I mean, that's what, it's the guy.

DJ MVP has not been that clearly at all this year, but we knew the starting pitching was, like you guys said, it was Cole and the Mabies. calling the question marks. Question marks. And they've been question marks. Cluber looked good, gets hurt. Taya Owen. I don't know.

You guys watch more Yankee stuff than I have. I think he's kind of been up and down. I just kind of a couple good starts, a lot of bad starts. I don't know, man. I don't think they're going to hit that over just because they need serious rotation help. And for what you guys are telling me, they're not going to go out and get that. Yeah, no, they need center field help too, even more than that. Yeah.

It'll be interesting. You think they need center field help more than pitching? Yep. They don't have a center fielder. And Cash made a press conference saying we're looking for center fielders. I mean, right now, seven, Kluber are both timed up for August, early August. So that would be their trade deadline pitchers if they can get to that point. Treve, they got a hit.

They're the Bronx bombers. It's a team built on hitting and they haven't hit. So Gary's resurgent. Voight is back as we're recording today. you can put that in the pop, but it, like, you got to go. It's go time. And they had a nice week. You got to build on that.

They've got the Royals in town right now. Like, the Yankees need to put the foot down, especially on bad teams, and they just haven't been good at that. Yeah, the overall offensive statistics for them have been pretty bad. That is all the teams that baseball reference says are locked. Now, there's still teams that we all agreed on, and we can just check in there on those. We all agreed that the Toronto Blue Jays would hit the,

under. Right now they're on pace for the under. Now it says that they could, you know, best case hit the over still, worst case under. They're on pace for the under right now. They need pitching help and they need bullpen help. And we knew that going in and we know that now. For real. The last time we saw their bullpen, it was in shambles. Not our time we were together opening day, Trev. We saw Julian Meriwether and we're like, this guy. And Romano. That was a different time. He could change their season's outlook. Now, he's been out forever.

I mentioned those top three teams and giving up homers, Orioles, twins, debacks. Number four is the Toronto Blue Jays. So they need pitching in a bad way, and it's if the Yankees do get going, if the Red Sox stay hot, if the rays keep raising, we know these Blue Jays have wanted to make impact moves,

but it's been difficult to get guys to sign there. I wonder if they're going to be, if they're a 500 team or as of today they're 500, are they going to be willing to move some of their young dudes for a pitcher to go for it? They need to trade for pitchers that are under contract for a couple of years. They need to go get Gibby and then have them next year because I don't think they're going to land Gibby and free agency.

Especially if they're still playing at minor league ballparks, which shouldn't be the case next year. But even then, I think they should go trade for pitchers that have years on them. Hipparios, Gibby, Taylor. or Hearned. Do you got anything on the blue jaystrev? They're fun to watch. But yeah, I mean,

pitching is the name of the game. That's the bottom line, dude. You know, they're hitting the crap out of the ball. They have some, I mean, Vlad is having an unbelievable year, but it just doesn't, that's not how you win in the big leagues. It's very similar to having a good quarterback in the NFL.

If you don't have a good starting pitching or maybe your bullpins can bring you down just as easily. That's the one thing you have to have. Can I tell you. you two teams that need to trade? Yeah. What if I told you there's two very talented teams that you could kind of circle in for fourth place in their division, one pitches, one hits. Miami Marlins and the Blue Jays. Figure out a trade. Get a little balance going, guys. Marlins have given up the least amount of

home runs this year. Blue Jays, like I mentioned, fourth. Well, the Marlins have a place. player on a John Boy Media podcast. As with the next team we're going to talk about, the Mets. Migi Rojas, Marlin is on the Chris Rose rotation, and Trevor May from the Mets is on the Chris Rose rotation, as well as Lucas Gialito, Tyler Glassnow, Stephen Brault, Archer Bradley, and they have guests that are also players all the time. They had Joey Votto.

Recently, they had Todd Frazier recently. I just retweeted someone that said it's the best podcast, and I agree. I like this podcast a lot, but if you want to get to know players, no one's doing it like the Chris Rose rotation. So it comes out, well,

they're doing three a week right now. So it's coming out like every day, basically. And then you can find it on the JM baseball YouTube channel or any podcast app. Go check out the Chris Rose rotation. The Mets, this is a fascinating one. The Mets are playing great baseball.

They're in first in their division. We all took the under. we all took the under. It was 90 and a half and we said, we all believed in the Mets. We thought they would have a good year. We just believed that that division would bang each other up a lot, and they'd probably still have the under.

They are on pace for the under right now. And we all said the under. Now, this is one that's so up in the air. They could very easily hit the over, or they could just hit the under and still have a good season. But I thought that was wild. I thought for sure they would have been on pace for the over, but that line was 90 and a half there on pace for the under.

Barely, 89 wins on pace for it. The pitching has been so good. I mean, there's no way you could have guessed that Stroman and Walker would be as good as they are. I mean, you knew they're good pitchers. If you would have said, pencil them in for a three or a three-five, sure.

But these guys are sitting at 2-3-5, 242. Then obviously you have the guy, Jacob de Grom with a 0.5-0. Their bullpen's been good, too. They got some bats coming back. think this one, with the way the division has been playing, I think they have a chance to go on a little run here and maybe bump up and get over. Because they've been missing some bats.

They haven't hit all year. I think their lineup is better than they've showed. So this is one where I think the pitching is for real. We've seen it enough now. And the hitting, I think, is going to come around. I could see them get to like 92, 93 wins. I mean, it's a team. No problem.

Team ERA of 3-1-1. That's insane. That's insane. So good for the Mets. They're hitting on the other side really hasn't been there, but you can spin that two ways. They've been hurt that if those guys come back and hit like they can, the Mets will be right on track for that.

Another team that I would really be interested to see what they're doing around the trade deadline, because we've talked a little bit about it, but, you know, every position kind of has something going on. I wonder every team always needs. more pitching, but they are the best at it so far this year. So I don't know. It's going to be interesting to see the rumors around. And like, Trev, I think you said it yesterday. Like Uncle Steve Cohen, who's winning over this fan base, if they could do something a little

nuclear around the deadline, I mean, that would be you got to believe Miracle Mets. I think he wants to for sure. Yeah. See who's out there, though, and like, where do they have openings and all that shit? All right. Bada-da-da-da-da. Who's next? We all agreed on the Milwaukee Brewers to hit the over. They are on pace for the over,

but they say their best and worse is different. So they're 82 and a half. They're on pace for 88. We all said the over. See if they get any deadline help or what their moves are. Adamas seems to be working out for them, an early trade at a position they needed, and he's getting offensive help.

So got anything on these guys? Love the brew crew. Man, a name we hear all the time in Yankee land that doesn't seem like a fit that seems like a good brewer's fit. Maybe a David Peralta. Someone like that. They need another stick. Their hitting numbers are putrid. And you guys know I don't like to say creative words.

So that one kind of hurt me. But they are 212 batting average, 301 on base. like these are these numbers are tough man uh so but the spin zone on that is if there's something that's easy to find around the deadline i mean you can get a couple expiring contracts of guys that can slap it around a little bit and i think they're instant upgrades for for milwaukee so uh i i still like the over for them you know this we talk about this all the time with them They're just sitting in the weeds, wait, and wait and wait, and they'll go make a move.

It'll be a good move. And then come September, they'll go on a run and be there. That's what the brewers do. Now, I mean, there's seven games over 500, and they're second to last in the league in OPS Plus. Not bad. Like, they can go get bats, you know? Like, Yelly's been better this year.

He's sitting like 791 OPS or something like that. He'll get better. And the moves, man. I'm like, they're there. There's some openings. Bring a bad in. Well, another team's going to be looking for bats if they're even competing, which I don't think they will be.

But Jake mentioned him, the fish with arms. We all said that they would have the over. It's 70 and a half. We all went over. They're on 70 and a half games. They're on pace for 70.7.9. So this is the only one I kind of marked as on pace for a push. Who knows?

Do you think that they're, who knows? What would you take? Would you take the under from the here and out? You're going to get a lot of teams in the east that are bolstering up, and they might be sending away. I think I'd take the under from here and out, but shrug. Lean under. The problem for me here is, like I said before,

I mean, they can kind of pitch any day of the week. They just, they've never been able to hit. They've never been able to hit dramatic. I'd lean under because you're right. They probably sell. I mean, you know, what, Aguilar? is second in RBI this year. I think Miggi Rojas.

There's some discussion around that because jazz is originally supposed to be a shortstop. So I don't know. You just have to assume they're selling and not buying, which makes you lead in the under. I agree with that. Yep. All right.

There's some guys, they just got a trade. Starly Marte is not going to do. Starling. Hey, how about this, Treve? We all agreed the Dodgers would hit the over, even though it was a preposterous line at 101.1.5 games. Well, why wouldn't they? they got better.

They got Bauer. They got full season of Mookie. We all said over. They're on pace for the under. They're on pace for 98 games. And it feels like the Dodgers haven't even dodgered yet. And they're on pace for 98 wins. Baseball reference has their best case at 104.

So I still holding out hope. I think the over is still in play for the Dodgers. But they're on pace for the under. Muncie's back. He's coming back like tomorrow or tomorrow. day. Belly is coming back. Seeger's about to go on a rehab assignment. Put those guys in with the pitching they have. I mean, I don't know who said it earlier in the episode. They could win 15 games in a row. We wouldn't even bat an eye. Like they're by far the best team on paper

still. And Trit. I don't think it's even close around the league. So I'm, I'm over. You mentioned Rossi telling the Cubby's like, hey, big road trip coming up, like a kind of season-dependent road trip coming up. I think if you're the Dodgers and Dave Roberts, you get those three lefties back, and you tell the guys, hey, like, you know, we've got, what, 20 games to the All-Star break? Like, let's turn it on. I wouldn't be surprised of that projection, like their max goes up to 107 before the All-Star break. I think they could turn it on for a couple weeks, and we'd be saying, oh, the Dodgers are back.

Those Giants are throwing a little wrench in that. We did not expect a 90-win Giants team, so they could. they could very well be under that. It's true. All right. Going into the All-Star break, they got Washington, Miami, and then the Diamondbacks. It could be a nice little ending of the first half there. Kansas City Royals, we all agreed on the over.

It was 71 wins. They're on pace for the over. They're on pace for 74 wins. They might be trading some people. They have some people they can trade. Hands in the air. I don't really know or whatever. I have no.

Push. Push. Okay. I agree. And then the only the last team remaining is the Chicago White Sox. We all agreed on the over.

It was 91.5. They are on pace for 96 wins. I would still be betting on the over there. They're going to make some moves like you said, or Tomi told you, Trev. They're still going to bring in some people and get help, and I would have them hitting the over. I agree, especially in that division.

Cleveland's been the only other scary team there. I can't believe I chose the under on them. They continuously just have pitching everywhere. But the White Sox are maybe the second most complete team in baseball behind the Dodgers. So I'm all in on that. Top five hitting and pitching for the White Sox this year. So just to wrap up the whole thing at the end here,

I think something interesting is the difference on pace four and over under. and the biggest difference is 32 game difference between what the over-under was and what they're on pace for. And that are your snakes, Jake Snakes, 32 games under what the over-under was. The next biggest difference is the San Francisco Giants, 28 games over.

We found the games. We found the games right there. N-O-West. Yeah, both in the same division, yeah. Twins and Orioles are the biggest. Twins, Orioles, and Braves are the next four biggest differences in the way you don't want to be and in the way you do want to be, the Red Sox, the Astros, and the Indians. I think the only team that I have some questions, where did the Padres land?

They are projected for the under right now. They're projected for 92 wins. The over under was 94.5. They, you know, I was looking up some team numbers before this, and as I was ranting and raving about the Mets and how good their pitching has been 3-1-1, and that's with DeGrom and all that. Padres, number two, 3-1-2. They have pitched as well as the Mets.

And that, you know, we always hear Slam Diego, Tatees, welcome to the Crohn Zone, Machado. They pitch, man. And they're playing an electric series right now with the Dodgers. that's been a good time. So I'm really interested to see how the rest of their their season goes. All right. And to wrap up our individual picks, Trev, according to the on pace of, you have 14 out of 30 correct. I have 15 out of 30. And Jake, 19 out of 30 correct. Damn. Wow. And I will say, Jim, it should be out of 28 because there are two that are. I changed one. I had one wrong. But I have one as a,

push. Technically, we would all have the Marlins correct because 70.79 is higher than 70.5. Yeah, give it to us then. So that would be 70. That would make Jake look 20 out of 30, which is very impressive by Jake. But yeah, we'll see where we get at the end. Fuck you computers. I thought I was doing hot.

I thought I was hot. Turns out. Hmm. I don't believe in anything. What are these computers freaking know anyway? I think we should be in the front office. How many baseball games is the computer? played, Jake. Zero.

Jake and I had a good conversation at the game the other day. The Yankees were down three or four runs. Three runs. They're down three runs. And Clint Frazier was up. And the question posed by us and some people from the company they were talking like, would you rather him have a lead off solo home run

here or a lead off walk or a lead off double? And we all said we'd rather the walk or the double. But analytics would probably tell you you'd rather the solo shot. But we were like, but I'd rather a runner on base, make the pitcher go from the stretch, make him throw some more high leverage pitches, get the two-run homer in play.

And we were laughing because we all agreed that I'd rather a base runner and chaos than just a solo shot and then the pitcher starts so fresh. And now it's only a two-run game. We're saying that's an analytic we should make up. Yeah. It is. I know a lot of baseball players who would agree with you there, too. Yeah. I'm probably not one of them. Hitting coach Josh Donaldson?

I'll ask him. BPD thoughts? I'd rather the double in that case specifically. Yeah. But I don't completely disagree with the computers. Like, well, having a run's good. Run is good. I want a lot of runs, baby.

A lot of runs. All right, that's the episode. We'll do this again, I guess. Three quarters of the way through and then maybe like last week, so we were at. I like that. Good way to check in on the whole league. Those computers better get one wrong.

I'm so mad at computers right now. Well, don't mess with the sheet. I made the sheet so we can keep the June 22nd dates in and we'll see. Lock it. Yeah. I don't even want to get in there. That was so impressive that you handling that sheet during the episode is very impressive. I'm good at Google Sheets. He's put his head into Google Sheets.

You saw me bolding my. my victories and then you just took it over. Yeah. Well, that's a good idea by Trev. I'll do that real quick too. Yeah. Good stuff. All right. It's commandeered.

Goodbye, everyone. Love you guys. Love everyone. Thanks for listening, guys. Jake sucks.