Talkin' Baseball (MLB Podcast) - 391 | Which Players Change Their Season with a Strong Finish?

Episode Date: September 15, 2021

Jake breaks down which players in the league would benefit the most from a strong finish to the season Go to https://www.ToppsNFTs.com on September 9th to get in on the Topps MLB Inception NFT Collection Go to https://getroman.com/jomboy now to get $15 off your first month Presented by DraftKings Timestamps: 6:15 - Gary Sanchez 13:45 - Jared Walsh 18:15 - Trevor Story & Javy Baez 24:45 - Luis Urias 33:45 - Outfield 38:15 - Ian Happ 44:15 - Byron Buxton 54:15 - Michael Conforto 58:00 - Yusei Kikuchi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Hello and welcome to talking baseball. It's the midweek episode, and we've got some important stuff to discuss. Jake is going to walk us through some game-changing, season-changing things. Hello and welcome to talking baseball. My name is Jimmy. Sitting next to me is Jake. Trevor joining us from California, as always, and BBD in the corner producing his butt away. This episode brought to you by Draft Kings and some other special people, maybe.

Maybe. And we got a good one here. We did this. We can't remember if we did it last year during the short season or if we did it in 2019, first year of the show. But there's some players out there who have a big chance to win the season individually. We're going to get into it. Trevor, are you excited? So excited. You know, our friend talking Jake here put together this beautiful list that he shared with us. And there's some fun names to talk about. I'd love. like the topic. I've been part of two week differences. I've seen people, you know, have great seasons because of the last two weeks and also go the other way. And although it's going to be a small sample size, it plays a big part in your end of season results. And those things matter. So I'm excited to talk about them. There's some really, really interesting cases here. You did a good job, Jake. How you doing, man? Hi, Trev, James, BV. D. Everyone live, I just accidentally touched BPD's Weiner a little bit.

Crossing through doorways, everything got congested, it got crazy. But we're good. Talk to HR about it. Yeah, Trev, I'm, I got to think it's 2019 because 2020 was such a short season. That was kind of the discussion of the season. But for me, it's always been the, you know, a player, my generic example, as a player has a 775 OPS, and the people that listen to talking baseball know what that means.

You have a hot two weeks. You finish with an 800 OPS, and it's like, that guy is a real good ball player. You have a bad couple weeks, and you land at a 740 OPS. You know, people are like, yeah, he's okay. He's kind of average, and anyone in baseball can have a good three weeks

or have a bad three weeks. So, yeah, I got an interesting list of dudes here, doing generally well. I mentioned the BPD thing. Treve, do you have any examples? Like, do you have any guys you were playing with that maybe they were chasing 300 batting average or something like that or 30 home runs on the season or any of those kind of milestones that don't mean a ton,

but they also could mean the world to a player? Yeah, I mean, personally, I'm going through my game logs right now. And interestingly enough, I remember Chris Herman, Herm the Worm. September, and I think it was 2011, I had a good end of the year, and he said this exact words to me, like, you saved your season. I didn't really think much of at the time,

because I was still plugging away, but it's kind of exactly what you're talking about here, like getting hot. Not only, like, makes you feel good going into the off season, but you can raise those numbers where, like, they go from, to like, okay, like, you did it. It's the body of,

work and this is this is just going to add to the body of work for instance like we're talking we're going to talk about our guy ian hap he and hath been doing it lately right teaser teaser no hap's a great hap's a great example and i think people you know sometimes we we hype all the john boy media stuff obviously it's the company um ian hapwood he's doing his nut job right now and yeah we'll we'll just tie it into you know what that means for him kind of going forward or going to next season. Man, his, he is the best butter knife in baseball right now. Yeah.

The way you can chop up his stats are electric. Trev, 2013. Oh, boy. You had a hot last six games. In those six, that's what he was talking about. In those six games, you had an 831 OPS. You had a 391 batting average, 440 on base. Now, it's not crazy difference, but the changes you made in those six games,

mentally do play a little difference cognitively. Like your batting average was below 250. That week you ended your season batting average above 250. Mentally, that's like a check mark. Your OPS was below 700. You ended it at 701, which is you just get in those sevens. And people think a little differently. You're like, oh, yeah, it's a, you know, plus season, average season.

100%. That's a great number to look at, you know, six to seven OPS is completely different. Seven to eight OPS is completely different. So, yeah, I got hot. Can I make you a little sad? No. The last game of the year, you almost tanked.

Tanked it. Yeah, I went 0 for four. I'm looking at it right now. Yeah, because you were at 256, 311, 7.07, and you clap for that. You had beers in the dugout. You were. Last game of the year. Who got you?

That's the thing is, if I would have had an ice game. No, Trag. It was, it was, it was, it was, it was, it was, it was him and as he. Oh, oh, I, I am, I am, I was, I know, that's messed up. You should have sat out. Yeah. Should, hey, this bald guy, I don't, I don't, I don't face him well. I want to keep my numbers as they are.

Can't hit home run to end the season once he's out of the game. Ah, garden hire. What's weird is I remember him saying it in Houston. I'm, whatever, this show is not about, Jesus Christ, you guys. Sometimes it is. So the all-maker Jake team is brought to you by... Are we doing it?

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Things are going to be great for me. Get Roman. Jake, who you got? You're host of this show. You're walking us through it. I'm interested. You know Poppy's and around the horn guy. And I think where I'm going to start,

and this guy was topical for other reasons the other day. And Jim, he's like, an all-time favorite for you. Catcher, Gary Sanchez for our New York Yankees. Gary was recently highlighted for all the wrong reasons, one of the worst tags in MLB history, for lack of a better way to put it. Gary Sanchez, in an interesting twist,

has not been a conversation point for the Yankees this year, which is good and bad. Gary often gets highlighted for a lot of the wrong reasons, and we forget how good of a hit. this dude is. He's got a career 804 OPS. When Gary's dialed in, his power goes toe to toe with anyone in baseball. And he's having a really solid year. He's got a 751 OPS. And I guess he hasn't really had too many highs or too many lows. You know, he's got one war on the season. Besides that defensive gaff the other day on the tag, he's been pretty good defensively to the point that

Trev, you live on Yankees' Twitter and you haven't seen people killing Gary. You used to coach this guy, Trev. I'm not sure where you're at. He's having a nice year, a 105 OPS Plus. If Gary, and by the way, the Yanks start a three-game set with the Orioles, where he's had a lot of success, if Gary can find the stroke for these final couple weeks, get that OPS plus to like a 115, something in that area. He now jumps back into one of the better hitting.

catcher years this year. Because again, compare catchers to catchers. There's not a ton of dudes out there. And Gary is in his, what, his second year of, his third year of arbitration, where his contract next year is going to be in the 8 million range-ish, maybe a little higher, maybe a little lower, that there was talks this offseason if the Yankees would pick up his contract. If Gary finishes strong, his numbers amongst catchers are going to,

going to be, yep, Gary's coming back. Let's ride this thing out. If not, I mean, it really opens a lot of stuff. So Gary is my backstop for the all-maker break team. Okay. I like it. I mean, looking at his numbers, he had an incredible first half. Second half hasn't been so hot for Gary. He ended the first half with a 785 OPS. You're going to take that all day long from your catcher since then 676 and really it's his OBP that's gone down so I was going to say hit some homers you know get that slugging it but really it's about getting on base cuts some strikeouts down get on base hit a few homers and you're you're exactly right Jake that 105 OPS plus could turn into 110 really quickly and then you know we're talking like he's he'll be tender to contract it

for Gary it very well could go either way if he struggles mightily at the end he's a non-tender candidate. You said it, you said to yourself. He was, I don't know if they're ever really thought about non-tendering him this off-season because $6 million is nothing to pay a catcher that has the potential of Gary. When you start getting up there, eights to tens, then teams start really looking, do we have a guy, two guys maybe, that we can platoon and pay him, you know, a million bucks. That becomes a real thing, especially when, you know, the Yankees, they said this year they weren't going over.

that threshold. So it's going to be interesting to see what he does. I'm rooting big time for Gary. We haven't heard about his defensive liability besides that one play. You know, we haven't heard about the past balls, which has been a huge thing for him. Maybe you guys are more in tune with that. I haven't heard it on Yankees' Twitter. No, I mean, when one happens, it gets grouped into all of his past stuff.

And that one game and that tag is the worst. It's pretty bad. But on the whole as a season hasn't been what it once was like 2018. It was like with a runner on third. Right. All you could think about was, oh, my God, don't dirt one. Pitchers had a pitch a little different. It was like, oh, bad, bad, bad.

It has not been that. He had a really, really hot June. I mean, he had an out of his mind June. So if he just has like a decent September, that would be nice. He had game winning hit the other day. for the Yankees. Hopefully he can build on that and some Orioles pitching. Because, yeah, Trev, like you said, in his first half, 785 OPS,

and, you know, if you get that from a catcher, that's fantastic. Gary's career is in the 8th. He's an 800 OPS guy. So Gary would turn it on. That would be big for him and Los Yanks. This next one was the only one that I think the conversation isn't as clear. and it was at first base and a part of the maker break teams,

Maker Jake, excuse me, is, you know, the company you keep, because it's positional. And when I was looking at the first base position, like Vlad's season has been, you don't have to worry about that. You know who Muncie is. You know who Freddie Freeman.

Go look at his numbers on the years. He just casually had another incredible season. Goldschmidt, Gurriel, like Votto, your perception of those players isn't going to change. The one guy who stood out, and he's having a really nice year, is Jared Walsh for the Angels. Jared Walsh is having a great season, 125 games, 26 homers, 272, 333, 509 slugging.

That's his across-the-board. And that's where Jared Walsh can really take this thing to another level. If he gets to 30 homers, that's a mark that not a lot of ball players can say. And when we start talking about the angels come 2022, you say, okay, Trout's going to be back. Otani's gross. Jared Walsh is a 30 homer guy. Rendon should be back. If Jared Walsh, like we just talked about with Trev's example from a few years back,

if he drops his batting average into the 260s, 250s with a little slumperoo, his on base is at 333. That's kind of a pivot point for hitters. You start going lower than that. People start, well, he's not an on-base guy. So Jared Walsh, who's had a solid year, he was great last year. I do think the next couple weeks, when we talk about the Angels in the offseason and specifically him, he can change a lot of his narrative.

I think we're talking about with him narrative outside of Angels fans. because he's been so good. I think he has one bad month and he was battling an injury that they finally just put him on the IL and that bad month is so bad. And since recovering, I mean, he's been lights out every month. Right. So people that don't know all of that

and they just look at hard numbers if he has a bad September and it drops might not give credit for this season he should be getting credit for. But I think it's, we can, we and Angels fans should step up and be like, no, that was a good year. One bad month when he was injured and a bad September, but that should not knock how good of a year he's had. Well, he's actually had a really good September. Since that, since the intercostal strain, it's zapped him of his power. You know, I'm looking at the splits right now.

In the second half, he's got four homers compared to 22 in the first half. Now, obviously a lot more games have been played. But I agree with you. You know, there are some benchmark numbers that guys want to get to. 30 homers is a benchmark number. Maybe it doesn't mean as much as it used to, but it really still does. I don't even know why I said that. It still really means a lot to guys.

30 homers is the mark of a true power hitter. So he's sitting at 26 right now. I'd love to see him get there. He's one of the guys like you're saying, James, like Angels fans, know, they love and adore this guy. But for him to become more of a household name, I get what you're saying. And that's rooting for him to do it. That's all of it.

Like, that's the outside perspective. Angel fans are going to love Jared Walsh. He's had a nice year. But if he has a couple good weeks, you're talking about a 280 batting average, 30 home runs, 340 on base, 500 plus slugging. And if you're the outside world, you have to really check in with that. If you're the outside world and his numbers kind of fade a little bit, you point to the second half,

and people might not know about the injury or they say the league's starting to figure them out. You get those kind of phrases. So Jared Walsh, finish strong. Let's get 30. Another caveat here with a guy like Walsh. Yeah. The Angels are probably going to look to maybe extend the guy. I know it's early on this career,

but teams are willing to do that now. New Front. office, that's the mindset that these guys have. They want to get, if they believe in you, they're going to look to get you on the cheat. Now, if Jared goes and has the last two weeks, not so hot, I mean, that could potentially cost him millions in a contract offer. On the flip side, if he goes bananas and hits some homers and keeps getting on base, that could raise his price a couple million dollars. So like, that's kind of what's at stake here for these last two weeks. It's not just the numbers to look at,

but also what comes along with the numbers, money, you know, recognition, which means a lot to everybody. I mean, we play the game for the love of the game, but you also, like, worked your ass off. Like, you want to make as much money as you can in the small earning window that you have as a baseball player. It's a tight window.

It's a tight window. Ooh. And that segie segues us to a couple. middle infielders. I wasn't planning on lumping him together, but I think I will. Your second base and shortstop combination, I am going with Javi Baez and Trevor Story. And so, A, these guys are upcoming, a huge part of the shortstop free agency class. Lindor resigned, he's out. And by the way, a couple three homer days, that'll change how Lindor

season looks. But for Hobby Baez and Trevor Story, I think. think there's a couple big things to know. Havi Bias, whenever the shortstop class was mentioned, Correa, Seeger, Trevor's story. Havi was kind of the last guy mentioned, and part of that is because his 2020 was so bad. His 2020, and, you know, I think they tied it to some of the video stuff, guys using iPads and things like that. He had a 599 OPS in 2020, which when you're getting... compared to Carlos Correa and Seeger and story, those guys don't have that blip on their radar.

And, you know, he's never been an on-base guy, and, you know, teams obviously love that. Like, what Javi does is he drives the ball, he plays great defense. He's electric on the base paths, my goodness. Since Javier, he's gone to the New York Mets, 298, 360, a 9-30 OPS. if Javi has a couple more weeks, he doesn't go from the bargain bin shortstop option. He goes to the guy who plays shortstop and second base, who you might get a little bit of a deal on,

but he can also rake and drive the ball. Now Trevor's story, it ties back into the numbers, right? He is going to get paid paid. And I think what he can do with a hot couple weeks is take any excuses out of front office's mouth. He hasn't had the 900 OPS year. He's sitting at 797 right now. I think that 800 OPS definitely speaks nowadays.

He's got a career 864. If our guy, fan of the pot, Trevor Story, has a couple big weeks and brings that up to 815, 820, the numbers are not align with his career numbers, but you just say like, yeah, he had a slow start last year and then everything else came together. So those guys, like you said, Trev, money is on the line. These guys next couple weeks matter, matter.

Yeah. Hobby's been hot lately. Big time. Both him, story and Jave have been hot lately. You know, for a guy like Baez, you look at his 2020, maybe you're thinking he wasn't interested. Right? He comes over to the Mets.

it's interesting now i got that juice that life again that you know the love for the game we're playing for something i think a guy like hobby maybe needs that uh he's been obviously showing it there and as far as story goes he's been killing it too august of september he's got it on like a 920 925 ops like i think teams are willing to overlook like you know a bad july this is basically kind of what story had you know he has the track record there. But, you know, he will remove all doubt. Get that OPS in the

8th. You know, he's already basically finished strong, but he has to continue this and, you know, have it in the 8th. He'll go get his payday. Maybe he'll come to your yanks. I don't know. Leave no doubt. Make sure they remember

forever. The night they played the time. What movie's are from? I forget. How does hobby bias have a career 104 OPS plus? It's just the on base. Power. Yeah. Those are the two combination.

Yeah, I mean, that's, he's career on base 305. I mean, he's slugging 4-78. It's good. Yeah, really good. When he hits it, it goes. He just doesn't walk, obviously. Story's going to finish in the right place. He's got like a three and a half war this year.

He's been high. But yeah, you want to I want that ammunition taken away from front offices who are trying to sign Trevor Story and they're like, well, we're 797 OPS. No, let's get. 8. 8. 8. 8 1 men.

Put the snowman right there next to that period. You know what I'm saying? Excuse me? Yeah. Are we a snowman pod? Well, we've already talked about my career with snowmen, I like making snowman. Yeah.

Is that it? Is that the question? I don't like making snowmen. From California. You don't even know that life. I mean, Jimmy, we have mountains here with snow. Yeah, but you got to go to it. You don't get to make a snowman in your backyard.

I'm not making a snowman if I'm at like a ski resort. I'm making a snow in my backyard so I can watch it melt over the next two weeks. I mean, it's not like, yeah. Maybe not in my backyard, but it's pretty close. How many snowmen have you made in your life, Trev? A ton. A ton. It used to, where I grew up in, over under 20.

Over. I got doubts. That's suspect. Why? Do you, I don't understand people. Like, California has all topography and terrain. We have mountains, we have snow. Jimmy's very close to L.A.

Jimmy's counter to that is Jimmy would never leave his house to go make a snowman. Yeah. Yeah, see, we would go camping all the time in the winter. He's a winter camper. Winter camper. Yeah. As you know, I go camping smack dab in the middle of the World Series. Every year. Are you doing that this year?

No, I don't think so. I can. I have a freaking job now. It's brutal. I hate it. Hate that for you. Guys, rounding out the infield, I have a young guy who I think we haven't talked about enough. and I don't know if it's because we didn't come across him while we were there I think Willie stole all the headlines for a while the other part in the Trent Grisham trade Luis Urius who went over to the Milwaukee Brewers

guys his season is kind of going to blow your mind a little bit he's played all over the infield he's now playing shortstop while Willie Adamas is out and by the way he's been raking while he's doing it the 24 year old 24 he's got a 251 batting average

a 340 on base and a 788 OPS those are really nice numbers 20 home runs for a guy who can play all the infield positions and is 24 years old it's already a strong year

Like when the brewers are talking about next season They're like oh you know If Leritas takes the next step He's going to be a real ball player 788 OPS If he has a couple weeks And he ends up in the eights Like he goes from

Guy we talk about as a solid piece Like yeah you know he's a good piece on the Brewers So like He's a young impact player in the game Especially if he's picking at a shortstop. I don't have the defensive numbers in front of me. But with that versatility and what he's doing at the stick with the stick, excuse me, nickname on baseball reference, Wicho, my guy, Luis Uriis.

I like it. This is a good one because it could go 100% either way. If he tanks here ends up with an OPS around 750 and it's like, okay, like, this is who he is. He's a 750 dude. He's a 750 dude. He's a, going to get a little bit better, but you're right. If he gets into the eights, then there's some mystery, some intrigue. Oh, he's 24 years old right now. 800 OPS.

Now the trajectory is like this. And everyone wants to talk about, hey, he just scratched the surface of his potential. That's crazy to me to really think about that. Like, the guy is the same player, but you're going to take a small sample size of the last two weeks this season, and that could totally change the perspective on a player

you know from his front office from his fans from you know idiots talking about baseball like us so this is like a big one and i really hope he finishes strong and we start saying like okay they got adamus got urias el wicho he's a guy guy guy i want to call him a guy guy so finish strong does that mean which it's kind of mean which i'm looking it up the witch wicho is often a nickname for louis in Latino culture. That was tweeted by the Milwaukee Brewers. Oh, I think they'd know.

Doesn't mean which. What about that? He's one of those guys where his numbers are so much better when he's not at short. This season, it's pretty drastic, and then on a career, it's there as well. I don't know. I don't, Trev, does that ever, is that ever real? Like where you play affects your offense? Yeah.

I don't think so. unless you're playing catcher. I think catcher is the one position. You're like, okay, fuck. Like, we get it. Your legs are tired. So I, I'm asking genuinely,

because sometimes the splits like speak loud and other times I'm like, but is that really real? Like is, is it like if, you know, if someone was to say, you know, playing shortstop takes more of his focus off of hitting

because he's constantly thinking about shortstop and, you know, where to be here and where to be there or like harping on plays or whatever. is that real at all? I think it can be mentally if you struggle at a position.

Shortstop is very difficult to play. So if he hasn't been playing well at shortstop, which I don't know, but say you're between third base and shortstop, if you're the guy at third base, you know, you want the ball hit to you, you're making all the plays,

obviously your mindset is going to be completely different than if you're at shortstop booting balls, you know, you're knocking a few. feel very confident about yourself. And when you're at the plate, that confidence probably is the most important thing that you can have as a hitter. So in that regard, yeah.

My experience, I was always like fucking trying to be really good defensively. I never was like, had one position where I felt like, oh, I could just play this, no problem. So I was always like trying to make plays all the time. So for me, it didn't mean anything. But I could definitely see how for some guys,

like for a guy like him, his defensive numbers, I will bet you are probably better at third base and second base than they are. I like that. It's just easier positions. Yeah, I like the spin that you're saying. It's not that the worst position takes his brain off of it. It could be that the position he excels at just as a confidence builder that he makes a play. Then he goes to the plate and he's just feeling good all around.

Because he's in his offensive numbers, it looks like this year and his season, third base is where he goes off. Interesting. Looking at stack has out, it's above average over his career. It's been not crazy below the average range, but he's solidly below average defensive shortstop. And like third base, he hasn't been plus there, but it's been fine. And second base he's about a league average defensive second basements.

That might be, maybe that's his long term home. Or he's figuring out third. Still 24, too. And by the way, a little bit of a short king listed at 5'9, Wish we got to see him at field level. Well, you know he's 5-8. Yeah, it feels like a 5-8. And, yeah, his last 13 games, he's been 9-74 OPS,

and he's been playing 10 of those 13 at shortstop. So boost those shortstop numbers. Get your arb numbers up, Luis. But, yeah, and I think, Trev, like, you just kind of had the eyes open, especially when you talk about a young player that, you know, I think that's the other spin zone on this. If someone does limp to the finish line a little bit, you know, don't fully judge them on that either.

Like if that's how you view players, like, you know, if the season ended today and we had all offseason to talk about Luis Urius, we'd be like, man, that's a really strong year for a kid his age. But finish even stronger, and we'll talk about you as a cornerstone, a cornerstone piece like that. You know, usually when I type someone's name into my search engine or like the bar or whatever, baseball reference page pops up immediately.

This is the first time I've been on Luis Urius' baseball reference. That's what I'm saying. That's what I'm saying. I think if this guy was a yank, sock, Dodger, I think we would, he'd be in our mouth a little bit more. But after this Brewers's postseason, right? on. He's a reverse split guy.

So if you're looking, God, I keep freaking losing my spot here. Versus left-handed pitching. Where did I just have that? Would you just have that? Versus left-handed starters, that's where I was looking at. 640 OPS versus right-handed starters,

840 OPS. And he's a right-handed hitter. The numbers kind of average out more as you just go overall, left-handed pitchers, 767, right-handed pitcher, 794. But the starters, you must be facing,

some nasty lefties or something. Coach Treve need to talk to him about how to mash those lefties? Wade Miley? Like, who's he facing? It's the lefty that it's got to be Wade. Shout out to Wade Miley. If I'm interpreting these

sack-ass defensive metrics, right, which I might not be, would love for someone in the comments to explain. It's worse or shorts up than I originally thought. Okay. Like he, on the, like, makeable plays, he's, like, labor level.

at short. Okay. Anybody that's listening, earmuffs, Earmuffs. Shortstop is a motherfucker. It is so difficult to play shortstop.

When guys can do it and also hit the ball, that's why they get paid. It's just, it's, I don't think there's a more difficult position on the field. Me neither. There just isn't.

I like that. John, that's the infield. Let's go to the outfield. Does the outfield want to be brought to us by the Kings? The draft Kings? Ooh. Bet on Ian Hap to Homer and you'll win tons of money. Bet on Ian Hapto Homer and you'll win tons of money.

I got some bets going tonight, Trave, except I bet on the over in the game. And I think I meant I thought I bet the under and then I checked it and I have the over now. And I can't change it. You're going to win. Can't change it until I get back to New Jersey. So we'll see how it goes. They allow you to change? Yeah.

Yeah, Draft Kings allows you to change. It's really nice. I also, Jake found this bet that Draft Kings has that he loves, and I bet that as well today. So you guys, here's some little, you know, Jake thinks they're going to take it away. I think they're giving away so much free money that eventually it'll be taken away. You can bet on the starting pitcher to give up a home run and their team to lose. So you kind of just go around the league, find a really bad piece.

pitcher. So I have that tonight. I have the Yankees hitting a home run off Tyler Wells, Alexander Wells. Alexander. I have the Yankees hitting a home run off Alexander Wells. I mean, people listening, this has already happened. Yeah, we'll find out, yeah. And the Yankees winning.

And like the odds were pretty good. We're pretty good because I think that's pretty likely. Where are they? Bring him up. I can find them. They're normally like plus 180. Like, it's kind of surprising because, you know, if you do some turkey mat there,

they're probably going to hit a home run. And if it's not a great starting pitcher, they're probably going to knock it around and put up a big number, which means they got a chance to win. I like it. I think I went... This is just a bad pitcher that are not very likely to take a win themselves. Oh, wow.

So, yeah. It's the Orioles, though. It's like very likely. It's the Orioles pitching in the Yankees. Is it more than like minus 120? Yeah, it's minus 165. I'll bring a mine. There's a little bit of juice, a little bit of juice,

but it is likely. For a Yankeesies. Orioles game at this point in the season. Yeah. You know. Just so you know, the Yankees are only, what, nine and six against the Orioles? Well, that might change or might not and we'll be sad,

Treve. That's how it works. Could tie the rest of the way. You're finding another one or no. You'd finish the read and I'll find mine. Well, if you want to go have fun, check out those bets on Draft Kings. Download the Drafking Sportsbook app and use promo code John Boyd received $200

in free bets when you place a $1 bet on any football game. That's exactly what I did, Treve. I had $200 of free bets, free credits. I put them all on the two bets I was talking about the other day. I won both of those. Now I have like $300 of free credits, and I'm putting them on these bets now.

Just keep going and building. Yeah. All you got to do is put $1 on any football game and you can do the same thing. Promocode John Boy this week at Trafficking Sportsbook and official sports betting partner of the NFL. You must be 21 or older in New Jersey, Indiana, or PA. Only new customers only minimum $5 deposit,

$1 wager required, one per customer. restrictions apply see draftgings.com slash sportsbook for details gambling problem call 1-800 gambler in Indiana 1-800-9 with it. Did you find with it? Yeah, so I mean, this one blew my mind the other day. It was Rockies-Fillies, which, well, this is kind of funny now because it was the only game they won, but it was Kyle Freeland versus Zach Wheeler. So I did Kyle Freeland to give up a Homer and Rockies to lose.

It was plus 130 on Wheeler Day. There's money to be had out there. Go check them out of Draft Kings. Do you want to hear a stat that I came across? I would love this, I think. And I don't mean this in a negative way to the Giants. The Giants fans. But there are 24 games above 500 right now.

There are 20 games over 500 against Arizona and Colorado alone. Half of their, I mean, about half of their games being over 500 came from just beating the crap out of Arizona and Colorado. That's part of the formula. You just said the Yankees haven't beaten the Orioles. The Reyes dominated the Orioles this year. I know. I mean, look, they did what they're supposed to do.

And then some. I thought that was interesting, though. So who's the outfield brought to by Draft Kings? The outfield. We'll start with Happer. He got a shout out at the beginning of the show. And, you know, if you've been tracking with us and we've been trying to show out, he is our guy, go check out the compound, all that stuff. Ian's a really good do. Our playing video the other day is hilarious with him and coach ball game. Ann Hap on the season right now is 223, 309 on base, a 741 OPS. So when he's been hitting them, they've been going.

Unfortunately, that's bad when your name's Ian Hap at this point. You lost me there a little bit. What? Those aren't good numbers. And the fact that he's Ian Hap, they're even worse numbers. If Eureas was having those numbers, you'd be like, yeah, you can pick it up, but it's not terrible. But that's going to be looked at as a down year. He was having – Ian Hap, and he'll tell us this will probably have him on in the off season.

He'll tell us he was having an awful season. Jim, I think you found the cutoff date. The rock bottom was August 12th. Ian Hap was hitting 176, 283 with a 599 OPS. Yeah, it's funny because it's like he almost saw his OPS on the scoreboard and it started with a five. And the very next day, he hit like a homer, a couple homers, and then just never looked back.

The reverse Treve effect. He saw the bad numbers and was like, I'm better than that. Yeah, this ends. The Jumbotron. Jumbotron doesn't lie. God. Tells you the truth every single time you're at the place. I would love.

Good or bad. Whether it's winter meetings or whenever it happens, but you talk in Jumbotron Analytics to some analytics people would be fantastic. It's just the numbers are so big and everyone can see them. There's no hiding from that. You're naked. No. Let's talk about the good stuff with Ian Hap.

August 13th to September 13th, a month. He's played 27 games. He's hit 11 home runs. 1.178 OPS. 366, 396 OPP. 782 slugging. Okay, bonds. Hap has been going nut job to the point that his numbers,

he has a 97 OPS plus. His numbers are around in a sick way average. If Ian Hap keeps this going, which he will, John Boy Media, not a doubt. Man, a couple more of these weeks, and you're looking at like a 28 homer season, you talk about how bad it was for a little bit, but he found it. And keep it going, Happer, because it's, man, I can only imagine how those first couple months felt, but I bet it feels pretty good right now. I wonder what the formula is to, like, you know, find an end game we like

and see what he has to do by then. Because I want, you know, let's get the OPS plus to 100. You're at 97. Just like a three-digit OPS plus because he hasn't had one that's not three-digits his entire career. Got to keep that clean. So that's what we need. That's what we're fighting for.

And here's a guy in arbitration making 4-something, 4.1 this year. If he didn't get hot and his numbers were where they were at, he'd be a 4-1 guy again next year, maybe like a 4-5 guy, but because he's gotten this hot, he'll have a pretty standard raise in arbitration. If he continues to go gangbusters, he'll actually, you know, maybe outperform that. So this means a lot.

And I'll tell this to everybody that's listening. If Ian Hap gets his OPS Plus over 100, I will send him a nice ball of wine. I'll give him a ball of wine that's worth $100 or more. How about that? Make it whatever his OPS is. Say he gets it up to $1.15. You've got to get a $115 bottle of wine.

Yes. I'll just send him. I'll Venmo him $115. No, you have to pick out the wine. No, you have to send him the wine. What if he doesn't like a charade? It doesn't matter. He'll like it.

You're the power player. The wine really is second to the sentiment that it costs his OPS. I'd honestly prefer if the wine tasted like ass. I don't think he'll ever open it. I think he'll be on the shelf. Yeah, it's probably going to be a memory for him. whatever your OPS plus ends up at if it's over 100

If it's below 100 you get nothing You get chucks It's over a hundred Two buck chuck You get a nice bottle of Vino And I'll pick something You know that I think everyone will like Where the Cubs playing?

Because I mean If he keeps playing like this He's playing the Phillies, okay I mean when we do the Friday up He could be at a hundred spot The way he's swinging it So he's got to end it Right right right

Right but that's on saying Keep going half a If you look at his game log in September, he's got one game without a hit. Against the Giants, one over four, every other game, three hits, two hits, you know, he's doing it. Good job, Ian.

He's going nuts. And I think even, is he good looking? His body is nice. Ooh. Like, it's just well. Good eyes. He's kind of got to create a player body.

The height. was a little suspect, but the curves were nice. What's he listed as? Are you saying he's listed at six? Are you saying he's under six? I'm not saying anything. He might be six feet, right on the nose. I don't doubt it.

205? Yeah, six feet. Inhab, keep staying hot. So Cubs fans will be psyched about this hot stretch the rest of the way. Centerfield, maybe my other weirdest position. It's mostly because, A, I was kind of surprised he was playing again. And B, he's going to be bookends.

Trev, I know this one's a weird combo for you because you're attached to this guy. But again, it's tied to the conversation. Byron Buckson had one of the best Aprils you can kind of have as a baseball player. He just went nuts. All J.M. team. The stats are through the roof. For the past three years, if you're measuring war or however you like to measure baseball players, Buckson has been an animal, 169 games, an 876 OPS.

That's a 131 OPS plus while being one of the premier defenders in the sport at a position that is tough to find in baseball. I was telling you guys on the last all-jakey-snaky team, like appreciate what Brian Reynolds is doing. anyone playing center field appreciate what they're doing because that list gets thin quick. Byron Buxton is going to be one of the biggest names of this offseason, I think. They talked about trading him at the deadline. He's going to be demanding money for a player that does what he does on the field.

We don't have to do any of the injury stuff because I think that part of Buxton is, that conversation is out there that's not going to change no matter what. these final three weeks, he's only played 43 games this year. So that's why I wanted to add him because his numbers have the most fluctuation potential. And by the way, in those 43 games this year, 302, 344, a 978 OPS. If Young Buck finishes the year with those numbers and you tie it into the last three, man, the conversations around him this offseason are going to be wild. If he fades a little bit, I think the conversation's kind of going to be the same.

I think it's going to be like, yeah, Buxon's crazy talented, small sample size this year, we're worried about injury. If he finishes out with these numbers, I think it's like, which contender is going to take the chance on this guy? Because, man, is all the talent there. So I put a young buck on the team A little odd I like it It's hard to put like a price tag

On what an extension Or free agent contract would be He's got one more year of arbitration I believe Mm hmm Let me check that Yes he does So he'll play next year

Here in 5.1 this year Going off in 2021 We'll probably put him somewhere like close to 10, nine to 10 in arbitration, the numbers that he's put up, you know, the injuries, he didn't play a lot of games, like you said,

but I think he'll get that type of raise. The twins offered him seven years 80, I think it was this year, which I think is a slap in the place, because even if he just puts up kind of regular offensive numbers, where he brings to the table defensively is worth that. So Chris Rose poses question to me.

He said, six years 120, who says no? But, Buxner are the twins. I think both. They offered him 11 million a year essentially. Like getting up to 20 AAV is a whole different ballgame. And I think Buxon is willing to bet on himself. Like he is that talented. He's a guy that if he stays healthy,

you know, should be like a $25 million dollar player a year. Million dollars a year type player. So he has to keep. doing it. I think he's going to bet on himself. We'll see if he gets traded. If I'm the twins and he finishes hot, you probably trade him in the off season. If he kind of finishes and flames out a little bit, you got to keep him and see what happens next year. There'll be a market for him no matter what. Yeah. What are you thinking, Jimmer?

You know how many guys named Buxton have been an MLB before? Now we're talking. Last name Buxton? Two. Treve, do you have a guess? No, I mean, I'm going to say three? 200. Wow, what? Minus 198. Answers two.

Jake was correct. Nice job, Jake. I tried to cut you out right there. Math pod. Ralph. Who's the other? Ralph Buxton. Oh, of course.

Pitched in 1934, then pitched in the Pacific Coast League for 11 years before getting another shot in the majors at age 37. suspended for pine tar usage. No. Triple A. Ralph. Ralph Pynetar Buxton. That's tough. Yeah, you know, C-Rose went to high school with him.

He told me about it. Burn old jokes. Sorry. Who's the other outfielder? The other side to the Buckson argument, by the way, is wild. Career 295 on base. 245 bad. Yeah, not great.

But he had really, really tough. He had a slow start. He's going to have to bet on himself, Treve. That's where I've landed on this whole thing. Buxton's going to have to go into his free agency year take a chance and hope he balls out for $125 because if he does he will get paid paid. I just want to say this about Pirate.

For a long time. Young guy, it's already hard enough being a young guy in the big leagues. You know, he debuted at 21 in 2015. He got fucked with so much offensively. Get your foot down early, hit the ball on the ground, use your speed. these were things that were being taught to Byron. Hit the ball hard the other way. I mean, that was a twins thing for a long time,

especially, you know, if you got speed, they wanted you to do that. It's only been recently that he's said, and I remember seeing him, gosh, I don't know if he was rehabbing in AAA. I think it was in AAA at some point. We were there together. I don't know what that'll happen.

God, that's horrible. I blocked all those years from my mind. He's like, I'm done. I'm doing what makes me happy. And there was a hitting coach in AAA, and I'm forgetting his name right now, that gave him that advice. Like, this is your career. You have to do what makes you feel comfortable at the plate because if you're not comfortable, you're going to be putting up these numbers. So he's taking control of that. So if you go over the last, what, three years, 19, 827, 2844,

21, 978. It looks like, you know, he's figured out stuff that works for him. You almost got to throw like the shitty first couple years out offensively for Byron. Because he was, I mean, I know you can't do that. But like personally, I saw how much he got messed with. And he's a better, he was a better player at that time than his numbers showed. That's my Byron Bucks had ramped. It's beautiful. It's beautiful.

Go ball out. Now I've cursed twice on this episode and I don't like it. Damn. Damn. I think one of the Uber talented teams takes a chance on him. this offseason like Dodgers or Houston someone like that. Oh my gosh. Dodgers.

The Dodgers are going to have a DFA belly and you go get Bucksston. Just pick them up. What are you thinking about? I see you spinning. You think they're going to trade for him? I think they could. I don't see that happening. I would think he's got to play a full season before anyone ponies up.

Takes a chance. Takes a chance. So yeah, I think the opposite Because I think teams will be looking at it Like we can still get this guy on the chief Well then if you're the twins That's where I'm Because if he has a good three months

You can get him at a high If you're the, you can't sell low on Buxon If you're the twins Because the amount that you can sell high Next July Is might be through the roof Or if he's injured again You didn't lose out of much

Because you were going to sell low So if you had twins Please do not sell low On Byron Bucson I think it's an opportune time for them to sell. You're saying they're going to sell love. It's never been a plan. I don't think it's necessarily low right now.

I think it's about where it should be his trade value. Like people know the potential and what you can get. Like that means something still. So you're going to have to give something up. Could it be higher? 100%. Could it be lower? 100%.

Like I think it's kind of a. that area like if the twins are like hey we got a package that we like in the offseason they're just going to do it they don't want to take the chance that you know maybe he gets injured again or maybe he starts out slow he's had a really good year this year in the games that he's played so like in in their eyes hey his values here other teams could be thinking if you want to trade for a guy that bucks and you're projecting him much higher than that so you're like i can get him a little cheap right now That's where I have one of the elite elite going for it, because even if he's healthy for you for the playoffs,

if you're the Dodgers or Houston, like that's kind of what you're paying for. But your twins' points are very true. They're putting their neck out there for almost no reason if that happens. His defense is worth $10 million a year. Bang. My final outfielder. Ray's trade Keirmeyer for...

Ooh. They trade the one year of Keirmeyer and they pick up bucks in for cheaper. I kind of love that and hate it. Kearmeyer's going to make $12 million. Buxton's going to make... So they'll save a couple bucks. Bucson's going to make about $7 million. So they save $5 million.

They trade Keirmeyer. They bring in Buxton. Brett Phillips is around. Iron Buxton on the race. My final outfielder... Just a straight swap. Love it. That might happen.

That could be... They both have played in gloves. That could be Charlie Morton to the Braves, right there, people. Listen, my last outfielder, I'm keeping it in the big city. Michael Conforto for the New York Mets, he is entering free agency, I believe. Yep. And by the way, like, go check out his baseball reference. This dude's got some real nice seasons under his belt.

2017, he had a 939 OPS, 2019, 856. He raked in the short season last year. career 825 OPS guy plays a solid corner outfield. He got off to an atrocious start to this season. He was really on the struggle bus. We did our episode. We did a Yankees Mets preview episode with Jolly Olive and Jerry Blevins. Shea Station.

Go check them out if you're a Mets fan or anyone. Go check them out. They both make me laugh. Man, Jolly Olive said that Comforto was one of his most trusted hitters. in a big spot right now. And I was like, what? Because you look at the stats and they don't tell that story right now. He's hitting 226-719 OPS, which gives him an 100 OPS plus, which is kind of funny. I think the numbers are all a little lower this year going back to the sticky stuff times. He's got some big platoon numbers this year. He hasn't hit lefties at all. He had a really nice

August, 876 OPS. For me, this one was just your energy hitting free agency. Like, finish strong, get the OPS Plus over that 100 mark, you know, point to your career. You know, he's got basically 16 career war. They're a really nice corner outfielder. And just like you've emphasized, Trev, when you've worked so hard to be good at baseball, part of that that does tie in is getting that one big payday. And man, with a couple good weeks, he can take a lot of the juice out of GM.

pockets that are trying to sign him as cheap as possible. So I'm rooting for Conforto the final weeks and go get that payday kid. Yeah, this could be, I mean, he could make right now, I mean, this is just me completely guessing, by the way. He's going to command like 70 million bucks. Go off a couple really hot weeks here. Maybe that bumps up to 90, maybe a hunch. that's the difference

I mean that's that's the truth man like people remember how you finished and you get that OPS a little bit higher because yeah that's not looking too good compared to his overall numbers but I think he's already proven like he's reliable enough

and he has the track record that he's going to get a really nice payday this offseason but that's like think about that two weeks of good baseball could change it from 10 million bucks easily could change it.

That's nuts. Nuts. Go Michael Conforto. Agent Scott Boris, too. So, you know, how much love have we given Marcus Simeon for betting on himself? Like, if he's demanding that

90 and nobody's coming, now you're Michael Conforto taking a one-year tester deal, which, God, it's just crazy the... We got one more guy. It's a pitcher. It's big time discussion. It's exciting. Brought you by the Rose Rotation. One of the best

MLB interview shows you'll ever listen to because Chris Rose is amazing at talking to these guys and getting the best out of them. His co-hosts are MLB players. Trevor May, Gialito, Glassnow, Bralt, McGee Rojas, all hop on as his second host. And then they have guests on top of that. He also has a ton of guests sometimes when he can't get a co-host.

I mean, Scherzer's been on, Castellisbon, McCann, Rich Hill, Trevor Williams, Saddamas, Hendrix, Musgrove, Stel, Chishol. It's awesome. Episodes are released Mondays and Thursdays on the JM Baseball YouTube channel or wherever you listen to podcast. Chris Rose absolutely kills it. So go check out the show. And who's the pitcher, Jake? Jim, it's your guy. Mm-hmm.

You say, Kukuchi of the same. Seattle Mariners. We've already kind of started the Mariners hype train for next season. Kukuchi hits on a couple levels, Jim. You had him as your breakout, and he's got one of the funnier contracts in the sport. He's having a really solid year. He was an all-star. 27 starts, a 4-2-3 ERA. ERA is not everything, but he was an all-star, and I think it's kind of trending. the second half hasn't been as pleasant to him. He's had a 5-6-4 ERA. The Mariners are in the playoff hunt.

Still, he's going to get three or four more starts. If Yucay straightens it out for three or four more starts, if he could tuck under four ERA, that speaks to everyone that's ever watched the game of baseball. Seeing that four or that three for a starting pitcher means a world of difference. A couple bad starts if he starts heading the four-five route, which is kind of more aligned with his career,

then people are just going to point to that and say, like, I don't know, he's an arm. So, and he's got a lot of money on the table. Because, A, we think these Mariners want to make moves for the upcoming season. They'd have to opt in to his next three years of contract, which is crazy to think about. So I don't know. You say in the playoff race,

he could make a lot of fans in Seattle if he drops Dick for three days. If he doesn't have it, a really strong year for him just doesn't look as good as it should look. What if I told you I got a guy who's not going to miss a start all year and his average start, any given night, his average start's going to be five and two thirds with two and a half earned runs. Would you put that guy on your rotation? Give me him. That's 16 and a half mil. That was my follow-up.

Yes. But I don't think you're signing him for three years, 16 and a half mil. So I think he's going to be a free agent at the end of the year because you want him for three years because that's pretty stable and a good guy in the, but I don't think it's worth 16, three years in a row. So I'm very interested to see if the Mariners opt in or opt out. I'm leaning opt out and try to re-sign him like we've seen teams do. and just at a lower level, like we love it here.

We just don't think we can commit to that. But he's definitely worthwhile as a rotation piece for sure. And he's had some really good starts. He just also has had some clunkers. So, James, you're, like, in touch with this contract. I'm looking at it right now. 16 and a half team option next year, 13 million dollar player option.

So he can opt in next year and make 13. Yeah, for one year. For one year. And if the team take, If the team takes their option, they take all three, I believe. The team doesn't get to go year by year. The team, if I'm a remember, it's such a weird contract. But I think the team has to take all three, which I don't think they're going to do.

Technically, it's four, Jimmy. Oh, it is? Yeah, because it's 20. Yeah, but I feel like. It's 22 through 25. I have it up right here. 16 and a half team option, 22, 22, 23, 24, and 25. So there's no way they're picking that up

So he's going to pick up his $1,000 player option So he'll take help he'll pick up the team option Or the player option Or he'll shop himself around and see if someone gives him like Two years 25 I'd Yeah, God stuff I bet he would just do the one year at that point

Yeah I would too But his contract's always been Justin He is 31 he's early he'll be 31 next year He should be interesting interesting interesting. Yeah, it's 31, which makes me think he should go get. Right, if you could get the two or three. You can get three years from someone. Yeah. This game is not kind to people over 30, okay?

You're telling me. Rip it away from you. They rip it right out your dang hands. They're not going to take that. They're not going to give them 66 million over four years. I'm not going to pick it out. How about this? I hope Yusai pisses off the Seattle front office by absolutely dropping it in three games that mean a lot to Mariners fans that they're saying, we got, we have to. That's our guy. Mariners are cutthroat, dude.

They don't care about three starts. They're going to be like, okay, yeah, take your 13 million option. And we'll get you next year and we'll see what happens. The leverage is all with the team right now. I think he can beat that one year 13, though. If you just, just once, you know, I want to guarantee I'm on a roster for the next three years. I don't need to beat the eight. which at 31 I think is the better play.

And maybe the Mariners do that. Maybe he says, hey, guys, I'll come back at, what's his player option is 13. Say he says, I'll come back three years, give me 27. I'll take nine a year. $14 million extra on for him, guaranteed money. Even 10 a year for three years. I mean, that's half of what they're. I think the Mariners would do that.

Well, put that on a list of things. want to follow this offseason. Yeah. Yeah. Put it down. I just wrote it in the air. Jake's make or break lineup. And yeah, either way for Kukuchi, because I think we killed the contract stuff there,

his year on paper can feel a lot differently because of a couple starts upcoming. I checked it out. He's got one against the Royals and two against Oakland, there's last three starts. So go drop it. He's had, he's been pretty good against Oakland. Two games, 12 innings pitch, four in runs. But he had one poor start against Kansas City. They got lucky.

For some reason, and I know the Mariners are an AAL team, and I know he's on the Mariners. For some reason, I think of him as an NL pitcher, and I don't know why. When I saw the schedule and I was like, oh, Kansas City, oh, and then Oakland, wow, two interleague games to end it? I was like, what? And then I'm like, dude, he's in the AL, and they're the AOL.

But I've done that a couple times with him. I just, for some reason, my brain thinks he's in the N. Maybe that's his future signing. Maybe that's a premonition. Yeah, maybe I'm seeing a premonition here. Yeah. Heavy. You know what?

If he opts out, if they don't give him the, if they don't give him the blah, blah, blah, club option, Giants would just swoop them up. Oh, wow. Stay in division, stay in the north, west-ish. Definitely west. Not in division, but Yeah, he's a national league guy Not in division

Yeah, you're right West. I meant stay in the West People don't even know he actually pitches for the I meant stay in the region He's pitched three games And then be in the National League That's how I got there Nobody noticed

I was like what national league team would get him And I was like Giants would grab up The Giants will get him And turn him into a fucking superstar Now that's three times I've cursed And we gotta end the show There's so much cursing Sorry to the kids

We good Go Giants coaching staff. Want to see a picture I got? Yeah. I hope it's a happy follow-up on that episode. This might cause me to go robot mode because I'm, you know, putting my phone near. We'll narrate it if we need to. My guy, J.P. Martinez sent me this. Yeah, the Giants. A bunch of former twins. Giants clinched yesterday. That's pretty crazy. Who was it? We couldn't see the picture that. What's the earliest clinching ever in MLB? Where they pop champagne. Probably the Mariners that one year, right?

Right, they won 116 games. Didn't the Tigers one year clinch? The 1995 Indians were a juggernaut winning 100 games despite a strike-shortened 144 game season. Oh, it doesn't count. Jesus. September 8th for them. But it was a strike-shortened season, so that doesn't count.

My first year in Minnesota, we clinched September, like 12th or something. It was incredible. Never clinched again. Man. Sad. Sometimes. The Yankees clinched the A.L. East in 1998 on September 9th. Love that.

That's crazy. That's 21 games of who cares. Yeah. When we get off the air, ask me what was offered for my 2010 A.L. Central Championship hat. Everyone tweet that at Trevor Ploof. Yeah. It's not for the air. The Yankees clinched the division.

Like the Giants clinched a playoff birth. September 9th, division. That's nuts. All right. Yeah. It's nuts. It's the earliest ever in the history of MLB. It is very nuts.

That's the show. Good job, Jake. Can't wait for Friday stimulation with BVD. Oh, sexy. You can be the first.