Talkin' Baseball (MLB Podcast) - 465 | Our Favorite 2022 Prop Bets

Episode Date: March 30, 2022

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Hello and welcome to talking baseball. It is the prop bet episode brought to you by Draft Kings. We're going to tell you all the best bets in the history of betting. Hello and welcome to talking baseball. It's a fun episode. Yeah, it's prop bets, but there's also a lot of baseball to be discussed and the reasoning behind the bets we pick. My name is Jimmy.

His name is Jake. Trevor, coming here from California and BBD behind the dish. It's brought to you by Seat Geek and... Seekeek. Broughty by Seek. We're very hesitant, well, behind the scenes, very hesitant to hit start on this episode

because we're all doing more research and research and research because the different amount of prop bets that are available is very hard as there's so many. They rack your brain. And we're trying to get two bets that we like, a sprinkle,

meaning the odds are like way in your favor money-wise, not in your favor, winning-wise. And then a lock, one that we think, hey, this is pretty even bet, and it's a lock. So Jake, do you have your four? James, Trevor, B, B, BD, you guys know my problem. I just see winners. And not a lot of these will be.

But I have a lot of bets that I very much like. The lock gets tricky because baseball is a very tough sport. So the bet you want to lock in, it's a lot easier to say a player is going to do under 45 home runs because you're one injury away from being like, well, that was the easiest winner of all time. So I don't have my lock yet. I have a lot of bets I really like.

I really like. And my flyer, which, Poppy Gordo, this was my Trevor Plouffe moment last year. My flyer last year was the Corbyn-Bern-Sye-Young. I have something with similar odds to that that I really like as a flyer and one member of this panel will also really like as a flyer. So I'm doing well.

I love that this is becoming an annual episode because I think we do it the right way. I think it's fun and it leads to good conversation and that's literally the show, man. So Trev? I'm talking ball right now. I love it. The problem I'm seeing for this,

episode is all I can think about is homers and lots of them. So a lot of my bets are going to involve the home run and people going over it. I'll try to sprinkle in some other things as well, but it's really hard for me to get away from that page. I do have a lock similar to the lock I had last year that panned out. I think everyone's going to like it. I'm chalky today on my bets, which I don't love, but hey, I'm seeing the board, how I'm seeing the board. James. What's up, bro? What's up?

I usually find like one line of thinking. Like I see a bet. I'm like, oh, I think this is going to do that because of X. And then I just scour for more that fall into that because of X thing. So I had like three right away. And I just fell into a routine of looking for the same storyline. And if I'm wrong on the storyline, then I'm just. So I've had trouble.

Like I don't have a sprinkle yet. I'll find it. I don't have one. Jake got his sprinkle right last year It was very impressive You can't really There's no wrong sprinkle It's a great way to look at it

You sprinkle what you want to sprinkle on Especially if it's like you really want to have a rooting interest in something Last year As a collective we did pretty good on these If I'm remembering We all got our locks right Yes The sheet's got to still be around

I have it right here. So I said Mike Trout under 41 and a half home runs. That was plus 100, which that was weird. That that was like you earned money. I said the Yankees would win five more games than the Mets. That was my lock. That was your lock. And that was easy.

I had Trevor Storrs batting average being 280 or above. I got that wrong. And then my sprinkle and Jake and I did plus 4,000. You ended up getting yours. But that's like a real long shot. I said Zach Rankie would lead A.L. and wins did not happen. J-Cad, Vladdy Guerrero Jr.

Under 28-5 home runs. Got that wrong. First bed of the year. He got Corbin Burns to win NL. Sy Young. You had the Rays winning more than the Blue Jays. That was easy. That was easy.

It was free. It was a favorite, but it was like minus one of six. It was close. And then you had Freddie Freeman more home runs than Francisco Lindor. That was minus 112. I got my lock. I got my sprinkle.

Dad felt good last year. Trev, you had Yudan Alvarez over. Tough. 33 and a half home runs. What did he end up with? 33. 33. On the dot.

One more home run. Don't look at Joey Gallo. You also had Joey Gallo to hit over 38 and a half home runs. How many did he hit? 38. 38. I think 38. Gallo hit.

One more home run. If you were not hit one more home run, you would have got both of those. You had the Astros to make the playoffs as a lock. Nailed it. Phillies more wins than the Red Sox. You had to get that wrong, right? Yeah, that was bad.

That was a tough one. Red Sox were I missed last year. Walker Bueller to win the Cy Young was your sprinkle. Pretty good. He was up there. Yeah. And then Tatis over 168 hits. Did you get that?

No, he was close, but he also got hurt. So, no, I did not get that. And then BBD snuck his mortar lock-in of Tatis under RBI. Did that hit? Yeah. Yeah? Yeah. We're a lock pot.

Just parlay all of our locks together and make a ton of money. Easy. Easy, breezy, beautiful jakey girl. Let's do it. Okay, so we're just going to get everything. We're going to do like regular, just like, uh, so, There's two that are just kind of bets. They're not our lock.

They're not our sprinkle, right? Yeah, they're just a bet we like. All right. A bet we like. Do you want to start, Jake? No. No, Treve, you got it, right? I'll start.

I'll start. Look, I said I wanted to talk homers. Yeah. I got two guys who I think are going to, well, one's going to break out in a way that I think we've seen coming for a long time. another one's a change of scenery guy. I got Carlos Correa. He went to the twins.

I played at Target Field. I mean, they named the bullpen after me because I hit so many homers into it. I know how the ball flies there. Carlos Correa is going to hit over 25 and a half home runs. He doesn't do that often. I know he played in Houston, which is a homer dome.

But you think about the other parks he's going to play now and the pitching he's going to face now in the central. I think he's really going to enjoy hitting at home. He loves playing at Target Field. mentioned the batterer's eye being like one of the reasons he wanted to go there. He's like, I could do really well here. So I think that is a lock. I'm combining him with Luis Robert. 28 and a half homers. I think when you get this guy on the field for a full 162, the sky is the limit. He's an AL MVP candidate in my brain. I think Shohei is just going to steal it from

everybody. But over 28 and a half homer seems really, really attainable for him in that division again, it's just a good homer division. I'm taking both those guys over. Both of the odds are straight minus one-tens. Say, yes. BPD, can you open the sheet and type this all out? Because I was going to try, but that's going to be, I'm going to mess it up.

Correa is over 25 and a half. And Luis Robert is over 28 and a half. Google Doc profit. I'm counting both these guys being healthy and being in that division, it's a good homer division. Yeah, I mean, for Robbins, For Robert, I mean, the numbers are crazy from last season and the games he did play. 13 homers in 68 games, 11 and 56 the year before that.

It's a question of health. Like, I think if you get a buck 25 out of Robert, you're kind of on the way there. Interested to see. And he should. Like, he's 24. The dude's a freak of nature. That one's a fun one. It's going to be interesting.

It's going to be interesting to see him in a twins uni for so many reasons. Trev, I know this is why you got caught up on the homers. It's funny. He only has one season of over 25 and a half. And it was last year. You know, he's still crazy young. He's just, he's 27. He's just been in the public eye for so long.

And I think the only thing that would scare me away from that is the injury factor with Correa. You know, a lot of teams have been scared off by some of his back stuff. That's one of the rumors why he didn't get the big boy, big boy contract. And we'll see. And it depends where he's playing the second half of the year, right, Jim? Right. That's terrible.

Good counter. The Correa thing, real quick, I think he's going to want to maximize this one near thing he's got. So he's going to want to be in the lineup, whether that be a, more DH days or not, I think he's going to get the plate appearances. Yes, he has to stay healthy, but I think he's going to focus on being, like, trying to be as healthy as possible because he knows if I go out and do it this year, you know, the real big bag awaits. That real big bag. Okay.

The big big. You got it. I take it? I'll take it. Okay. I'll do an under. Dude, I've tried to force overs because I want to be positive, but I just like did a lot of research. I love your unders.

I love it. I wanted to do a lot of research, I wanted to force them over to be positive, but I can't do it. I'm taking, and like this is not knock on him at all, I'm taking the under on Bryce Harper's RBIs. They have it at 100.

And last year, he won the MVP. He led the league in doubles. He had 151 hits. He had 35 home run. He had 84 RBIs. Now they've switched out the people that are going to hit in front of him to slower guys who will take the extra base less.

He had, for a majority of it, he had Segorah and he had Herrera in front of him. And those guys were running. They were taking the extra base. They were faster. Now he's probably going to have Schwerber in front of him. Real Mudo, unless they like him back there. Hoskins might go in front. Castiano.

Castiano doesn't. take the extra base a lot. I looked into that. So if he was going to get 100 RBS, he would have done it last year. He's only done it twice. And one time he got 100 on the nose in 2018. So I'm going to take the under.

I just seem like that's there. What's the number at? 100. Yeah, it's interesting. The one thing that jumps out about that one, because you're right about all of it. I think the- Or 97 and a half is the, is it?

Yes, I was looking at it. But it's even across the board. It's minus 1-10 both ways, yes or no? I think the Schwabo, the Schwerbo argument can go both ways because he's a guy, if he's on and Harper hits a ding-dong, I think he could get on base more than, like Herrera did last year. So it becomes a base running versus getting on base. Seguer was above him last year and he has a better on base than Harper.

He had a 350 last year. Right. Does the 97 and a half change your mind now that you know you have? No, no, that's what I looked at and that's what I typed. I just said it wrong. The one that's interesting and I'd have to deep dive into it more is that his year in Philly in 2019, he did have 114 RBI. So I'd have to look into more what was going on that year because they did add more bats

and more talent around them, which you think could lead to more RBI. But just 100 RBI is not. No, it's really tough. It's really hard to do. And he's done it twice. screen one time it landed on 100. And he had the most doubles in the league last year with 35 bombs and still landed 13 short of what the number is here in an MVP season. Yeah.

So for me, that was good. Even money, I'll take it. What's your other one? Oh, we're giving both. I thought Trev was just grouping. I combined mine. I just combined mine. That's another under.

Two essential studs. Well, it's another under. It's Simeon under 32 and a half homers. He was playing in minor league complexes last year, where pitchers were not true. Wait, what? You think it's easier to hit Homer there? Well, the Naden was, yeah.

The Naden was pretty easy. The balls were flying out of the Niedin, and the opposing teams hated it. I mean, all the East pitchers hated it. And he's going to Arlington, where all the batters who hit there have said, it's very hard to hit home runs. so I was looking at park

I was looking at a lot of guys that moved fields and park factor the over under on this one was unless I wrote it down wrong again 32 and a half he hit 45 last year he's never hit more he hit more than 32 and a half one other time in the Coliseum

so mostly I was looking at park factor he's going to a place where guys said it was very hard to hit home runs and he was playing in a place to need in and traveling around last year where he hit a lot. I thought it was high. I don't take the under on that.

I like the reasoning. I do. It goes from very hitter-friendly parks to what many have said is very tough. Simeon was an interesting one because he's got his last two full years are big boy years. And even in that other big boy year in Oakland,

it was 33 home run. And he played 162 games. Like I remember, I was looking at his hits total line because it's really interesting. I mean, there's a huge argument for the guy plays every day and if he hits enough,

he got over what his line is. Simeon. Yeah, let's find out. I like it. So I apologize, Harper and Simeon. I think you're going to have great ears, but those kind of stood out to me. Line stood out.

Lines stood out. Returns to the A.L. West. Okay. So those are your two. Yeah, those are my two. Not a sprinkle, not a lock, but I like him. I have more of just like regular bets.

So I count my first two as one, right? Nope. I thought that's what you were doing. I was like, thank you, James. That's what I was doing. Yeah. And then Jake made me do two in a row.

I was confused. It's two bets. He said he was parlaying him. Yeah, parlayed him. Awesome, dude. So what's your second bet? Your second third bet. For some reason,

I totally knew what you were doing. Thank you. I think I said I want to do these guys together. You also on the same page? Yeah, but I mean, I didn't care either way. I didn't care. Right.

Okay. All right. I wasn't a dude Twins over Guardians minus four and a half games season win total. I'm not going to give that one if you want to put something.

Go ahead. The one I'm going to choose next. This is kind of fun. Matt Olson went to the Braves. Freddie Freeman went to the Dodgers. You guys remember that? Mm-hmm. Both really handsome.

left-handed hitting first baseman. I am going to take Matt Olson over Freddie Freeman home run total. And I'm paying a little juice on it because I think it's going to happen at minus 140. But I think Matt Olson is going to go and cement himself as like, yeah, Freddie was good. He's a legend, but I'm here. Georgia boy. Matt Olson over Freddie Freeman homers minus 140. So I had Olson over homers also considering the park factor.

If you look at all of his home hits and outs and doubles last year, if you put him in Atlanta, you get one, two, three, four, five, six, six to seven more homers than he hit last year at home. But it's still just a high line for me on the homers. So I didn't, I didn't go there. You found a way to bet on Olson hitting homers that isn't tied to a strict number so I really like what you did over what I was maybe going to do. And that is fun.

And it is fun. It's a fun bet. Some people will compare those guys for sure. What's that? What's your fourth bet? Twins over Guardians. Mine is four and a half on the season win total. I'm banking on the twins going, trying to go this way.

And the Guardians being like, where are we going? They don't know. Okay. Go twins go. Add that to the sheet, BBD. BPD, just added to the sheet. You had extra bets last year. I think it's now, it's now part of the routine of this episode.

I also have an extra bet. If you've got more bets, you'll like, get them out there. I'll go at some point. You want to go? You got your extra bet. You can go. You're the one telling us to keep going. I didn't say keep going there at all.

I did one and you were like, give your second. I mean, Jake's picks are pretty highly interesting. Because I thought we're doing two and two and two. Jake's bed is brought to you by trade calls. coffee. Trade connects customers to the freshest and best taste of coffee by partnering with the country's best craft roasters. We did a whole campaign with trade coffee on this show and to our audience guys. And trade coffee said that the return and response was absolutely great. Our audience tried trade coffee and liked it and they wanted to re-up with us. So that was cool. Always like

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and let trade find you a coffee you'll love. Drinktrade.com slash baseball for $30 off. Jake, you're up. Yes. All right, fellas. Welcome to the party. I'll give my two general bets that will win, but aren't locks or flyers.

You know, I want to go positive. and I have one positive, one negative. I'll do one that I already gave out on the TPPs. And I just, you know, good vibes. Because I think the unders are the lean here. This one is a yes or no, even odds both ways. St. Louis Cardinals to make the playoffs. I really like that team.

I think they have a shot at the division. I think, you know, are we doing expanded playoffs this year? We added one more team, right? They made it last year. They got hot at the end. They changed manager to clearly the guy that was already in-house and they wanted to be manager. Super well-run organization.

And the Albert Pooleholz effect, like they have to make the playoffs. Albert Poo-Hoss is there. Wayno is there. Yaddy is there. This team won't be selling at the deadline. And they'll have the belief, even if they're having a middling year. Like last year they turned it on at the end.

And I don't think they'll be middling to start on. So I will bring that one over here. Even odds, St. Louis Cardinals, to make the dance this year. Why not? I like it. I didn't tell you that your outfit today was good. Thank you, Trevor.

Even odds? Even odds? Cornflip? Jake, when we recorded that TPP and you read that, I immediately ran in bedside. I did too. That's where I was When I was looking at today's bets

I was like That one is still positive And I very much believe in it So Coin flip me Let's go birds Coin flip me I like it

Let's go birds Big St. Louis A lot of people are upset That we didn't draft Any Cardinals outfield I believe Do we just have Cardinals outfield or infield And Cardinals didn't get anybody Because they're the Cardinals

I stand by that They weren't They're red socks My next choice for infield would have been Cardinals, by the way. I think Cardinals infield has more of an argument than Cardinals outfield. I mean, you get Goldie and Aeronado. Goldie Aronado. Edmonds good, yachty. Both are shortstops.

I don't know which one's going to be the guy, but they're both good defenders. They pitch every year. That's why they're in it. And their team plays defense and is solid. That's why they're in it every year. Go birds. So you give me a bonus playoff spot? Are you kidding me?

Jack Flaherty? Um, and then, this one will be fun I've been talking to talk in Yankee land we do our talking Yanke stuff and this is a classic case well actually I could get hurt both ways here Isaiah Kiner Folefa

is the Yankees starting shortstop as of right now I don't think that will last throughout the season they have some prospects they really like or depending how this season goes, they could do something at the deadline. ICF over under is 167 and a half hits. Now, last year, ICF did have a good amount of hits. He had 172. He played in 158 games.

And he had 172 hits. Jake doesn't think he's playing the whole year. And I think the Yankees' plan is to have, have one of their prospects finish the year at shortstop. So if Isaiah Kynar Fleffa plays the whole year and plays to kind of his ability, like the whole year, 158 games, he's got a good shot at that number. I just, I don't think that happens with this Yankee squad. I think he ends up in more of a utility role.

And again, that's a, this one's a very easy, like, one 15-day IL stint in your home. So we don't love an under. here's the under. ICF under 167 and a half hits. 167 and a half. I mean, I like it because I like your your logic. I mean, I like your logic too. I think he's also another point in your favor,

Jake he batted most of his games in the one or two whole last year. He's going to be no higher than eight, like ever. Say that. He shouldn't be higher than that more than 10 times this year. A huge part to my argument, so thank you. Yeah. Where did he bat last year? He batted first or second in 130 games.

And that's just straight up not even a possibility. If he does more than five games. Make this your lock. He does more than five games above the seven hole. I got a lock I like. I got a lock I like. So, you know, I'm trying to get my three for four on again. That's my goal this year.

So go birds. Sorry IKF. you're not it's not that big of a deal for i kf he could have 130 hits and that would be his second best year ever and that would be 37 hits short so the logic is sound i mean he's not going to hit at the top of the lineup unless what if he goes off baby swing revolution baby that was going to be my my opener at the start of this is that if he goes over

that means he had a really good year but it could also you're also kind of not. So last time you did that, the guy I think led the big leagues and homers. So let's get ICF over 200 hits this season. If he leads the league in homers, I will love ICF. Swear on my life.

Okay. Are we at locks now? No, my third is Juan Soto, more homers than Acuna. Okay. It's, he's not the favorite. But he's got Cruz.

What? More homers. Than Acuna. Is they spot in any or just straight up more homers? I don't think it was spot. It was just odds. So, Soto's plus 100. And I mean, I don't know about this one because Akunia,

but he's coming back from injury, the knees there. Maybe it's a lighter season. Maybe there's some rest. Soto, what the fuck else is you going to do? They got Cruz behind him. They're going to be in a little competition who can hit more home runs. He's going to get more pitches with Cruz behind him. And like, he's coming into his feet.

50 year in the bigs, me 24. I think Trout had the most homers ever in his like fifth year. Kind of like, all right, well, I can walk. I can hit. Well, and I just hits for some pop now. So I got Soto getting real bored and just hitting tons of homers. And Akun, you're playing more team ball because they were playing for something and maybe taking it easier in April.

So Soto, more homers than Akun Jr. I also wanted to make Soto MVP, my like, sprinkle, but I think the odds weren't even that. And I think he's the betting favor. Yeah. Yeah, it's like plus 200. Yeah. I went to it and I was like, okay, everyone thinks that. We thrown in a third?

I got one. Yeah, we did three. Oh, man. Peter Moyland has me drinking the Kool-Aid, farm to fame. Go check them out if you like the young ballplayers of the MLB. Bobby Witt Jr. Over under on home runs is 20 and a half. You might be saying that's a big number for a rook.

there will be no reason for them to not play Bobby Witt, Jr. at a certain point this year, and guys hit home runs now. So I'm going over. Another positive over Bobby Witt Jr. over 20 and a half home runs. Rookie year? Rookie year. I mean, he's the- What are the odds? He's the top prospect.

They're like even, like, pick them. It's a lot for a rookie guy. It's a lot, and he could struggle and they can send him to AAA to, Get some seasoning. I think they're over it. Like he should have been called up last year, but they did the whole chicken dance of service time. So even if he's struggling,

I think they keep him up there. And dude, everyone swings for the fences now. I mean, look, I hope so. I want to see the guy go off, no doubt about it.

Just tough. Rookies, it's tough. Remember Kellanick last year? Like, he was supposed to come up and do everything. The big leagues are tough. So I wouldn't take that.

I like it. I'm rooting for it. I wouldn't take that bad. Come on, Bobby. Make a fan. Positive. Yeah, he's a stud. Okay.

You want to do locks or sprinkles? Sprinkles first? I think sprinkles first. Trabb, you got one? Yes. Last year, my sprinkle was Walker Buehler to win the Cy Young. I thought it was his time. Like this guy, my other Moxie King, or is that your Moxie King?

I forget. it. You like me colors. He got close. Yeah. He got close. He had a really good year. Um, my sprinkle again, because I want to give good odds. So I'm picking something that if you bet a hundred bucks on, uh, you're going to win a lot of money. I'm going, Julio Ureis for the NL. Say Young. You're getting 3,500 plus 3,500 on it. You saw what he did last year. I think the guy's 25 years old. Like he's settled in now. He's figured. some stuff out, the routine, everything like that. I think he's going to have to step up.

He had 20-something wins last year. I think if he repeats what he did last year, he'll be right up in the discussion again. So I'm down to throw a little bit. Sprinkle on Julio to do it this year. I think he gets it done. What were the odds there? Plus 3,500.

It's a big one. There were four sprinkles I liked, and that was one of them. That was one of them. Why not, right? He's still 25, I think. He went 20 and 3 with a 2-9 last year. I mean, just above a one whip. Again, yeah, he's 25 right now.

Like, he's got it all still. I know what I kind of like for him? Like, I know he ended up, and he had an amazing season as a starter last year. he was still almost like a bonus piece for the Dodgers. You know, it was like, oh, well, he was their bullpen hero. Will he do that in the playoffs again? Blah, blah, blah, blah. Like, they kind of need him to be the guy this year.

And I kind of like that. Yeah. Why not us? You got a sprinkler, Timbo? No, you go first. Okay. Like I said, I saw four sprinkles I was interested in. Feeling the Trevor Ploof pressure a little bit.

You know, I'm one for one on sprinkles, club and burns. There's one that jumps out. Similar odds to last year, if not the same odds. It's your ALMVP. And again, we're sprinkling. We're taking chances, right? Shohei is a big old favorite, and I'm drinking Halo Kool-Aid. You know, so you need, and this was my reasoning last year.

Like, it was DeGrom was the heavy favorite. After DeGrom, it became kind of an open board in the NL. After Shohei, I think the board opens up a little bit for ALMVP and a guy who got his bag, he don't have to worry about money no more. I said, good, one last thing. He's on a team that put the chips on the table. And he's a guy that racks up war. Trev, your boy, Byron Buxton, plus 4,000.

If he can somehow stay on the field for 145 games, he's got easy top 5 MVP potential. He's got MVP potential. So that was my favorite one that jumped off the board. So it's a flyer, but there's stuff. there. Oh, it's great. Again, yeah, go look at his stats last year before he went down.

Some of the injuries have been fluky. Some of it has something to do with the way he plays center field. But that's also what makes him special. I mean, you watch him play. I challenge anyone that really hasn't done it because I assume a lot of people really haven't watched a lot of Minnesota twin games. You know, just go watch a few. Go watch a series this year.

Don't watch one game. Try to watch a series and just focus on Byron. He's special. He's really, really special. So I like that one. Plus 4,000, you're getting a nice chunk of change there in a $100 bet. I like it. His power in defense is unreal.

It really is. To watch him play is a beautiful thing. The only problem is show hey. I know. I know. The plus 400 on Showhay. I wanted that to be my sprinkle, but that's not enough to be a sprinkle, and it's like a lock,

it's tough to lock that up. It's a weird bet, but man, like, that seems like, if you just wanted to take one bet this year, like maybe it's $100 on Show Hey to win the MVP. Save your lock. That's not my lock. Byron Buxton's last 100 games.

100 games 32 homers a 948 OPS while playing world class defense I mean last year he was set in the world on fire so hey be healthy dude go twins go twin up hit a couple into that Trevor Ploof Memorial Bullpen

he doesn't get enough credit for a name too Byron Buxton is just a great name great well he didn't choose it he should get zero credit Buck Daddy yeah let's go iteration Jimbo? You flying?

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or visiting App Store or Google Play. BPD, what's your sprinkle? my sprinkle another award uh Jeremy painia rookie of the year it looks like the Astros are going to it looks like he's going to get the day one shortstop job we just did their we recorded their TPPS right it's coming at the end of the week

we're talking about him a little bit and people seem to think he's the real deal and he's got like the seventh best A.L. Rookie of the year odds plus 1,200. I like that nice one beavers I like that star potential

we're all assisting each other assist trev for reminding me he existed when we recorded yesterday I just opened the chat said man John boy's salty on the twins have I said a thing something with Kareas homers I don't know

I don't think I said a thing about them today you are salty on the twins though I mean no I'm just not like a wrong statement I just like trolling them yeah more so we have the upper hand it's easy that's like you know come on no they say

signed all the big players. All you have to say is all Yang. Yank signed Karea. Everyone just says blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. What's your flyer? Go Twins go. Mariners to have the longest winning streak in baseball. Fun differential.

Plus 3,000. I just thought that was a ridiculous thing that that's a whole page as winning streaks. Longest win streak. Winning streak is two pages. Plus 3,000. And also team longest win streak. You can like choose like it over under how many it's going to be.

Like I really like an MLB Just will a team win 13 games in a row Yes or no It's pretty even odds But yeah Mariners, why not? Why not us? They crushed the A's last year Put a stretch together

Why not Mariners? Have some fun. I didn't even see this page. It's ridiculous page. I couldn't get off it because it's so silly And I was like I just need to do one of these Because it's like They're like the pirates

Over Under 4.5 wins in a row I think is what they can. gave that. Oh my gosh. They have to, right? Five. Five and a half. Five and a half. So it's like, will the Pirates win six in a row? And, and it's the no or over yes is the underdog. It's plus 140. Yeah. If they do it. I agree with that. The Brewers are going to win over. They're going to win eight games in a row at some point this season. Dude, I did it. So I looked at the Dodgers who won nine last year. And then I looked at the 2018, 19, or 2017, 18, 19, Dodgers, and they were five. Like, they didn't do it.

Yeah. So I think it is. That's what we kept saying about all these bets. It's like you think they're a lot and then you look at the stats and they don't support them. It's a crapshoot. The Pirates longest win streak last year was three games. Hey.

This is a ridiculous page. I know. I was just lost on it. And I was like, I don't believe in any of these. I was like, this has to be my sprinkle, because this doesn't, it means nothing. So Mariners, longest winchew. Longest winchew.

Let's do the locks. Let's get the door. I, uh, BPD, these don't go on the sheet, but the other ones I saw, Paschae rookie of the year, plus 5,000. He's going to get everyday run in Oakland. He's a guy that can rack up war on both sides. Machado MVP jumped out.

Don't believe it at all. But if, the Padres get involved this year, I think Machado would have to have his MVP season. So, bong. Okay. Locks. Lock a clock. Lock a clock.

I go? Sure, go. My lock is basically the same thing as last year. I locked in the Astros to make the playoffs and they were like minus 105 or something ridiculous like that after going to the ALCS, the previous five years. Like, dumb. I don't know what happened. Anyways, this year you're going to pay a little bit more for it,

and you're going to have to win the division. But I do think they're one of the teams. I think I have like three teams that I believe are clear winners of their division. And I think they're one of them. So you're going to have to pay for it. It's minus 175. It's going to hit. I know the juke's is high.

But a lock is a lock. Astros are winning the AOS. That's all I got. I mean, I agree with you. It's a lock. You got to pay for it. But yeah, I was going to do, I have two locks. I was going to do the Brewers to win their division.

It's even, it's better odds than what you're saying. I think it's minus, you have to pay less. 165. 165, but I'm not going to do that as my lock. Okay. But yeah, I think I agree completely. I don't know. Our Astros, TPP hasn't come out yet.

So I don't think we should like talk too much because it's a big conversation we have between the three of us about their division. Sure. Would you bet that, Jake? What? His lock. I don't love the numbers on it. And I, again, I don't love the odds either. I don't love the number. That's the only thing. Like, if, if I had to bet straight up,

what team wins the AOS? It's easily, um, the Astros, but I, you know, the word slog got thrown around in the TPP by myself, the only one. But. Double lock. Well, I was going to do to do it anymore. I liked what I did last year where I just said the Yankees will win five more games and the Mets win. So I went to that page again to find my lock. And can I tell everyone that listens to talking baseball something?

Yeah. If you're one of those people in the chat constantly saying the Yankees are the fourth best team in the division or that the Yankees stink or the Yankees suck, go to draft kings and bet your butt off because according to draft king, and fan graphs, the Yankees are good for some reason and have like, odds to win. So if you think the Yankees will, very nice projections. So if you disagree, go make money on your opinion,

the Yankees versus the Astros in win total, the Yankees are favored. They're spotting the Astros a win. My lock is that the Astros win more. games on the Yankees. I think they have an easier division. I think they have an easier schedule. That's, you know what that is, James? Just straight up unbiased baseball talk right there. I mean, I really don't understand. I don't understand why the Yankees are so favored. I think maybe they're playing off the public because they know so many people hate the Yankees one and think they

stink another. The Astros won 95 games last year. They won 107 and 19, 103 and 18, 101 and 17 since this group has been together. The Yankees have a much harder division than they've ever had. They're now four really good teams. They won 92 last year. In 19, they won 103. In 18, they won 100. In 17, they won 91. So I don't even understand. I don't even understand. understand why Vegas thinks that the Yankees are going to win more games in the Astros, so that's my lock. Huge. And if they tie, you win.

Are you betting the Astros are going to win more games in the Yankees, right? Yes. Okay. But if they have the same record, the Astros cover. Yankees are favored by a game. So if they both win 100, that bet still wins. Okay. I love that bet.

That's my lock. Make John Boy popular in Houston. all the data adds up there. I do, again, slog in the West, but the ALE East is so brutal that it's not a bad line at all. Go Stros go, as we always say on here. Yeah. Kit Davidson in the chat said,

Jimmy telling everyone to put their bet on draft kings, a plight way of telling everyone to kick rocks. No, no, no. I agree with those people. Like, I don't understand why the Yankees are favored. And I had about five bets. And you get a little reverse happiness there. I had about...

If the bet loses, that means the Yanks probably did pretty good. Yeah, but that part of my brain, honestly, is not even here, like, at all. Like, they have, like, all of the Yankees versus teams, like, it's like they're favored against the Red Sox. And I don't... Well, Jimmy, I think part of the problem is some of those people that comment the Yankees are the fourth place team. They don't want to put their money where their mouth is. I agree with them as well.

what I'm saying. I just didn't want all my bets to be anti-Yankees because I want to root for them over the course of the year. One of the first things I saw in the chat after you started doing the Yankees stuff here was Yankees pitching's awful and that made me laugh because carried all last year by their pitching. They actually pitch well.

Jacob, we were only ready for the finale? Mm-hmm. I think we are. Jake's lock of the century is that you will be

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Jake, what's your favorite song to make love to? Um, God. Because I'm your boyfriend. Let's see. Now I'm an idiot. What's that song going? I mean, I'm gonna take you out. It's Jimmy Fallon.

It's not that. Leave my wallet home. It's definitely not that. No justice. Let's see, I'm on a big glass animals kick. That's some vibes music. Okay. I can see that from you guys.

Mine is, since I've been loving you, Led Zeppelin. Okay. The drums. I always say, if you can't make love to that song, you can't make love.

B.D, you write that down in the notes. Roman ready. All right. Personal note. I, my lock. It is an under. It was a number that Trev

before the show you were looking at some of the home run stuff and you were shocked at how many of these guys hit crazy home runs now. Like James said for his first bet, he announced, I have an RBI number that... I don't want to say I thought was a misprint, but I thought there was a chance it was a misprint. Our Atlanta Braves, defending champs, love the Braves. Almost had their division winner pick, is one of my locks.

Plus 140, a little extra cheese. Adam Duvall. Hmm. I love me some Adam Duvall. We saw him playing center field last year. He was covering ground. Uh, won himself a gold glove last year. He did?

He did. What? Adam Duvall won a gold glove, and he led Major League Baseball in RBI in his age 32 season 113. They set his over-under for RBI. at 1.10 and a half. Adam Duval would have to play every game, essentially have a perfect season,

because he's only done that once in his career, and the bad man is coming back. The Braves Outfield, I think on their best day, would be Ronald Acuna Jr. I think we all agree on that. we love us some Eddie Rosario and Marcel Ozuna is back

Ozuna and Akuna were out last year not only are those guys going to take RBIs they're going to take playing times I think Duval could become a really good option off the bench for them like I still think he's going to play a lot D.H spot now but there's a D.H. spot now

they also signed Alex Dickerson who's slated in their D.H. Who do you have in center? If it not Duval? It would be Ronnie when he's healthy, which might take a little bit. The guy wins a gold glove. He's going to play. Right, but I think he also becomes a very good defensive replacement option later in the game or pinch hit and play defense. Like, Adam Duval is still going to play a lot. I don't think

he's in a fight for playing time. So you think you're taking the over on 110 RBI then? I'm not. I'm not. I'm saying I'm not, I'm not taking it. I can disagree with that. I think he's play all year, but I still tell me he plays 155, I'm still taking the under. Right. It's a crazy high. I like the bet, but like the reasoning, he's going to play. I don't think he's going to play as much as he did last year where he hit 113 for the first time in his career. I think it's a great lock.

Thank you. Even if he plays 162, all nine innings, I still think it's a great lock. Appreciate that. What's the juice on that? Straight up 110? Yeah. It's one of the two I wrote down as a potential lock. The only thing, like he will be behind.

like all the guys who will get on base, I don't seem getting to that number. I mean, he's slotted at seventh in the lineup right now, and that's without Ronnie in their projected lineup. So he will be up with track. I think Ozuna might take a couple RBIs away. I think Ocuna might take a couple RBI away. There's a lot of them.

We looked at that page together, and so... Prove me wrong. Austin Meadows is one, 101 and a half. those are big numbers man 100 rbis is they're it's hard to come by sure is I uh wait wait wait wait wait wait wait wait wait wait wait wait yeah Eugenio swores yeah that one jumped out 98 and a half the rbi numbers all seem off like I didn't see a single one that I

liked the over on changing my lock and our best it depends so much changing your are you officially changing your lock because you only get one one big B, BD, we'll write it down. I'm changing it because I don't like, I like my lock, but I don't like giving people that much juice. Okay, you did have a lot of juice on your lock. Yeah, so I'm going to go with the under 98 and a half.

It's minus 120. It's pretty fair juice there on a lock. Eugenio Suarez under 98.5 RBI's. How much changed it? Nice sprinkle. What were your sprinkles? What were the odds in your sprinkles? Mine was plus 3,000.

Plus 4,000. 4,000. Trez was plus 3,500. All right, all right, good. Because I found one I like at plus 1,800, but that's not enough. Mine was plus 1,200. Let it breathe. Springer to be the runs leader.

He's leading off for the Blue Jays now. He plays. He's in. Might be competing with dudes on his team. Yeah. Well, Bichette is there, but he's going to be leading off. Career 360 on base. And then you have Bichette, Vladdy.

the whole gang behind you. I like that. I just thought the, looking at the Blue Jays, and then like Trey Turner or Mookie over in the Dodgers as runs leaders. I just think they're going to score. But I think the Blue Jays more so.

So I don't know. Put it on the sheet in like parentheses. Like Jimmy also said this. Perentices. Yeah, I'm adding it to the sheet. Parentheses. Fayo in the chat. Brought up a good point.

Does Draft Kings? know something about the ball that we don't because these numbers are so offensively inflated. Do they know something about spring training and like just people are like as soon as the season starts, how much do these come down? That's my like just they're high. My lock's also part of this conversation if, if you don't mind.

Yes. You have a lock. Yeah. Similar tone to, to my Tatis pick a year ago. Juan Soto under 1-18 and a half RBI's I don't believe ever crossed that number I think he has a very good chance to win MVP but that team is if anything

probably gotten worse since the start of last season still they got Nelson Cruz is going to be behind him so yes sir he'll get more pitches to hit and it might help his homers and that that'll help some stuff Cesar Hernandez is a little more speed on the base paths ahead of him I guess 118's a tough Yeah.

It's a lot. It's such a high novel. That's a lot. Yeah. It's looking like we found a page that we all like. Last year he had. And it's minus 115. Last year he had Trey Turner ahead of him for like a lot too.

Like he's got, yeah. It's a good one. I mean, the RBI's pages. I don't get it. A lot of runs this year. That's exciting. They're supposed to be dead ating the ball. Like does draft kings know that they're not?

Or do they not know? And anyone who knows that. And there's a humidor in all 30 parks this year. Is that something? I thought that was supposed to keep the ball, like, less, like, buoyant or bouncy. I don't know. Bollient.

If you guys go to Draft Kings and look at this page, it's a fun. It is fun out there. You might have to be in L.A. and look at it. Some different locations. but yeah, it's pretty fun. Cool. That's the episode.

I like that episode. Me too. It's betting and there's trackable stuff for the whole year, but then there's also in the rationale, it's baseball talk. Yeah. Comment below if you guys see any more locks or just, you know, copy and based the whole RBI page, I guess.

The pitcher's win page was nuts. There was so many I just don't know what to do. The closest I got to a lock on pitchers wins, was Kyle Hendricks over nine and a half. Yeah, because he's the only pitcher last, I did a lot of research on that page because I wanted to find it. He's the only pitcher last year that won more than 10 on a losing team. Yeah.

On a non-playoff team. Because that's what I was, I was like, okay, all of the wins leaders were from, they were the one or two on a playoff team. Right. So that was a pretty good formula. Cubs should be better. He had like a down year last year. Yeah.

It's weird. Baseball's a weird sport. Corbyn Burns. How many wins last year, Trev? 12 12 or 11. But you want 11 and 6 or something like that. Silly game. Pretty nice.

Okay. Before we go, hold on, I want to shout out Mark Davidson. Mark Richardson, excuse me, in the chat. He's always in the chat. I met him at a high school baseball game out in L.A.

So, hell yeah. Let's go. I told him I'd say hi. Thanks for tuning in. Appreciate you. Cool. That's the show.

Let us know what you guys liked in the comments or Twitter or whatever. If you're not subscribed, that helps. I don't say that ever, but does. Place your bets in the comments. When's our next episode? I mean, all the TPPs are coming out. But Monday and Trev will be in California Monday. And then you're flying out here Monday night.

So Tuesday we'll all be together. And then Wednesday, Thursday, yeah. Last full episode before the season. We need to talk to a jeweler of our silver days that's made. Clubhouse jeweler guy, Trev? They will.