Talkin' Baseball (MLB Podcast) - 83 | Pittsburgh Pirates | Profile & Projection

Episode Date: February 14, 2020

Let's talk about this Pittsburgh Pirates team. It was a busy offseason, in a way. New GM. New Manager. Some Trades. What are they up to? Who did they add? Who did they lose? What prospects do you need to know and who may be moved at the deadline? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Welcome back to another team profile and projection of TPP from TB. That's talking baseball. We appreciate you tuning in episode a day every day until opening day. And on today's episode, we are talking about the Pittsburgh Pirates. You guys voted that this team was going to be the third worst in the MLB. So we're doing them third. and I think it's fair that you guys voted him to be third. What about you, Jake?

You think it's a fair spot for the Pirates to be? I think it's fair. You and I are having some interesting thoughts right now because there's some good baseball players on this team. I think better than we expected before we initially brought up the rosters. There's talented dudes on both sides of the ball, I think more so on offense than the pitching side of things. But, I mean, there's dudes that can play on this.

this team. I think we were expecting to see a pretty barren roster, but there's, there's talent. Yeah, last year they were 69 and 93. They were kind of a mess at the end, and they've been laughed at for the Chris Archer trade for a while, and that hasn't worked. And they officially kind of like decided to change everything. They fired their GM. They fired their manager. They, uh, they traded Sterling-Marté to get prospects back. They're like in a little bit of a rebuild, but it might be quicker than we thought because, like Jake just said, there's more guys on this team than I thought that actually have been putting up good numbers. And it's probably just because, you know, baseball is so regional and I don't watch a lot of

Pirates games, so I'm not too familiar. So sorry, Pirates fans, your team's better than I initially thought, still voted as the third worst in baseball per our audience. Yeah. Where do you want to go, Jim? Who's in, who's out? Well, Ben Charrington's the new general manager and Derek Shelton, who he's the one that kind of looks like a Giambi-esque with the beard, right?

From the twins. He's a new manager. They get rid of Elias Diaz and Starlin Marte got traded for some 19-year-old prospects, so they won't make a difference this year. They also brought in a Guillermo Heredia. And that's really like majority of the changes, right, for them? Yeah, I mean, that's it. Elias Diaz.

that's when you know you're on a bad team when the guy who caught the most games for you last year, they just say, no, thanks. Yeah. We are good. Good luck finding another job. But let's do the lineup. You and I have been wondering what our rhythm is going to look like on these. But I think the lineup is where we want to start.

And there's a lot of good stuff. I mean, like one through, I mean, one through six, we're going to have MLB dudes at the worst case, which okay like that and i mean polanco and josh bell those are probably the guys you know josh bell had a monster year last year polanco's been doing it for a little while now he was out at the start of last year he'll he'll get the full season but um they had some young guys come up too brian reynolds had a really strong year and so did kevin newman adam fraser as well so they've got I just named a lot of guys that if you're outside of the NL Central, you probably don't know them,

but they're young dudes that can hit and field a little bit that Pittsburgh's going to have a lineup. Brian Reynolds got some rookie of the year votes. Yeah, and deservedly so. He had a 314 batting average, 377 on base, and 880 OPS over 134 games. So that's normally a rookie year that jumps off the map pretty good. All of his baseball savant numbers are in the good area.

Exit velocity above average, hard hit above average, all the defensive stuff. I mean, the guys. The guys above him in the rookie of the year voting were Pete Alonzo who had 53 home runs in New York, Soroka, who had a 268 ERA for the first place Braves, and then Fernando Tatis Jr., who was like an all-world type prospect that came up and then he got hurt. He was neck and neck with Alonzo.

Fourth was Brian Reynolds. So that's, you, you could look back at this rookie of the year crop and say those were, those were some dudes that year. Baseball reference has his 2020 projections higher than his 2019 season. They're projecting him to have a 868 OPS. Well, he was 880 last year. So that's not better. But we've never been a math pod.

That's not better. been accused of being a math pod. No one's ever said we are in math pod. I thought it was 808. I was a little dyslexic there. 808 Detroit Avenue. I get that. No, Brian Reynolds is a guy making up a new segment.

If there's one dude you should take away from this team, like he is a really good ball player. I think Bell's probably still the guy. Well, Bill, that Brian Reynolds is the guy you don't know that you should know. Okay. If you're listening to this baseball podcast, I'm assuming you know Josh Bell. But man, they got, you know, Josh Bell and Brian Reynolds are switch hitters,

which you can have some fun with that. Polanco's lefty, Frazier's lefty. So they could be a tough matchup against some right-handed pitch in. You might not find a righty until shortstop Kevin Newman, but they're also going to have, they could call up the shortstop Cole Tucker at some point where he's a lefty hitter. So I don't know. I'm pretty smitten with my pirate so far.

I think Polanco isn't fully healthy. I don't think he's going to start the season healthy. Gregorri. I don't know. They don't have him. Get on them there. But yeah, it's not a full rebuild. I think this is like a retool or whatever that phrase is.

A lot of hitters. I mean, did you even mention like Frazier? He had a decent year last year. Yeah. He's a solid year. And solid MLB year, 99 OPS plus, 333 on base percentage, 278, batting average. I mean, they, they're going to be able to slap it around. Colin Moran, he was a piece in the Garrett-Cold trade. And I mean, these guys shouldn't be getting worse.

They're young players. I mean, it's not like they're 22 looking for them to break out. They're all 25, 26, 27, but they shouldn't be getting worse. And I think the big one that's in their pipeline right now that everyone's expecting to get the call this year is Cabrion Hayes, who's a big-time prospect. I think he's a top 15 prospect in baseball. They've got him at third base. So it'll be interesting to see if maybe they shift the infield around or if there's injuries. I think they're going to do the service time game with him. But he's he's the real deal. And again, the more, the deeper I get into this lineup, I'm finding guys. And that's before one of the top prospects in baseball gets the call to Brian Hayes or Key Brian. Yeah. Key Brian?

Country strong Key Brian 61210 What positions he play He's listed as the third baseman And I think they want to keep him there So it'll be interesting to see I Pirates fans Come come tweet out

tweet out at me talking Jake Or we're going to be there for spring train And we'll get the gossip But yeah I think you could shuffle that infield Or just wait for the injury or whatever it is All right So their lineup's better than we thought. Good job.

Happy. And they still might sign a center fielder. They've been rumored around Pilar, Cameron Mabin, which now I'm rooting for that. Because give me a one through eight, baby. Mabin is a good fit. Looks like they're not going to have a catcher. Well, they got, they got melee and they got someone else fighting for it. Stallings.

Yeah, which. And for what I'm talking about for their lineup, I think, go sign Cameron or Pilar and give me a one through seven that like again what we just stumbled away from in the Detroit Tigers is how do you watch that baseball game

for the Pittsburgh Pirates like I can watch that one through seven okay you like the what about the rotation that's not as fun to watch right now they've got it listed as Chris Archer Joe Muskrove Stephen Bralt

Trevor Williams and Mitch Caller who's the number three prospect in their organization last year. I mean, your big thing is you're preying Chris Archer has figured it out. So you think they'd trade him? Yeah, you'd trade him. I mean, yeah, yeah. Because your best case scenario, as much as I just talked about that lineup, in the NL Central, I mean, you've got good ball clubs like through and through.

The Cardinals are good. The Cubs are good. The Milwaukee figures it out. I'm missing another good NL Central team. Reds. The Reds are great. They're like the favorites. They, they improved so much this year. So, I mean, even if net net, the lineup works out great, Archer's twirling it. Joe Musgrove takes a step up. I mean, you're still not competing. So yeah, I think, I think Archer, you want him. Is this the last year of that contract for him?

No, he's on contract for 2021. 11 mil. That's a club option. So no. Team option. It's a team option. So, which again, if he were to pitch one, well again, a team might be interested in that. And our guy Trevor Plouffe has said that, like, Archer's got the stuff. Like, he doesn't understand why he's not better. So, hey, maybe it's the right person getting in his ear. Maybe it's just putting it together for a season. But yeah, I got to think that's one of the big topics in Piratesland because they traded,

oh, my God, Glasnow and Meadows, who have been so good for the raise that at this point, what Archer's given you is bad baseball, you're hoping you can flip him and turn him into something. Ah, Archer. It's tough, man. His plofs, he's poot, he's ploofs, pick to click. He believes in him that he's got the stuff.

I mean, how old is Archer now, 30? 31.4 years old. That's what it says. Yeah. What's my point? On fan graphs, which is such a funny way, because that's obviously how fan graphs measures age. Oh, yeah. What's mine? Oh, I'm like 30.9.

Yeah. Yeah. You're coming up. Wow. 31.3 years old. What a stupid way to do things. You know, their bullpen, and bullpens are kind of hard to talk on these, about on these lesser teams because it's just a crapshoot. But, uh, Kella,

he's going to be a free agent in 2021. So he might be another potential to have a good season, and then we're going to see you later, trade you, peace. Yeah, he's got some wipeout stuff too. If he can figure it out coming from Texas, well, I guess I mean, that was in 2018. so it's not very recently. But yeah, not a lot of other names jump out in the pen.

Bertie is a guy to maybe watch out for. He was a top 30 prospect for them. Kyle Crick, if that gets your jollies off. I think the pitching is really, because I mean, Musgrove was actually solid last year. Can he take another step up? I don't know. Brault Williams Keller,

you're hoping for one of those three to be solid. And I don't know if you're going to get that. You know who they open their seat? At least this year. Do you know who they open their season against? Um, okay. It's not. Okay.

Okay. Um, think on it. The pirates and the Marlins. Wrong. Correct state. Wrong team. Ah, huge. Panthers.

Also wrong. Wrong sport that time. Yes. The rays. So we can see Archer. You love a good opening day. We can see Archer. We can see Archer face off.

against Meadows. Maybe Glass Now and Archer pair up. Oh, man. That would be the race twist in the knife. Come on, Ray's. I'm rooting for it. I'm not, because I don't think that ends well for Chris Archer and our pirates fans. Wow.

Well, then they go on to play the Cubs, the Reds, and then the Cubs a lot. Then the Orioles. Survive that. Yeah, I don't see them having a good season. I do like their lineup. Now, do you think Josh Bell will do this? the same stuff. Like that's kind of a biggest conversation. Like, do you think Bell's the real deal? Yeah, his, um, uh, I mean, if you don't know the full Josh Bell story, big time prospect,

big time dude. He had a really nice rookie, rookie year. And then he kind of had a sophomore slump, 148 games. He only had 12 home runs, uh, 768 OPS. And then last year, he hits 37, 116 RBI's, All-Star, a 936 OPS. I think the question is where, where is the power? Because I think the juice ball is going to be gone this year. If not, good news for Josh Bell. Either way, I still don't think it's his 2018 numbers because 2017 as a rookie, he hit 26. Another juice ball year.

You're hoping for a 30 spot. And either way, even in that 28 season where he didn't have power, he had a 357 OBP. So it's not like he was just lost up there. The guy's got a skill set. I know I was hinting this towards you in the off season, kind of as a greedy Yankee fan because I was like, hey, let's slip Josh Bell a nice deal. Ben Charrington took over his GM.

He's one of the best guys that deals with minor leagues in baseball. If Josh Bell does start putting together another nice season, I mean, he's not supposed to reach free agency until 2023. So you could potentially be flipping a source. switch hitting first baseman with power from both sides of the plate with what three years of control two and a half years of control if you're if you're the pirates that's the piece that can fully start this rebuilding process charrington is rooting for his number one rooting interest is that chris archer has a fantastic first half and he can trade him yeah i mean that's kind of

the next step until getting more players they have no one else Kela and Archer, if they can trade them at the deadline, everyone else is kind of young guys or not owed money. Like they have, they have what? Their payroll is, it's estimated that it's going to get to $59 million. Do you know how little that is? Crazy. How many guys do they have, wait, they have Archer, Polanco, and Felipe Vasquez. Those are the only three players that are in, like, contracts, like making not team-controlled money.

arbitration money? Maybe, yeah. Yeah. That's insane. Yeah. Only three guys are outside of the team control arbitration. Right. I mean, Polanco signed a team.

Well, we'll see if it's a team friendly extension. It's got some options in there. Yeah, I'm going to be interested to see what, like you said, I mean, if you're a Pirates fan, your fingers crossed, Archer figures it out. so you're not trading him for pennies on the dollar at some point. God, I don't know. The Bell and Polanco stuff is going to be interesting because they are not going to be in the race. There's no way.

There's four teams in the NL Central that will be better than them. So I don't know. I wonder if they get a juicy offer or if another team were to get desperate for someone like Bell or Polanco. Man, what we're seeing from this lineup, if Musgrove can be okay, it doesn't do they have any pitching prospects that are really close in the pipeline i don't think so they're rooting for keller i think prester was one of their first round picks so he's not coming for a while away and if you're the pirates i don't know you're not going to be able to buy pitching through through for agency so i guess that's what i'm watching out for this year is i'm going to enjoy this

pirate's lineup i'm going to see what happens with their pitching and when they are trading at the deadline. It's who they're trading. And I'm looking for them to get some pitching back or some some double A AAA type ready pitching because that's that's what they're clearly missing. So last last TPP the Tigers you were rooting for their pitchers. This one you're rooting for the lineup. I mean, this is a good lineup. Like I think Orioles we were telling ourselves like, listen, what we said for the Orioles was they can be good against lefties. So that means for 40 games a year, the Orioles are going to give you a game. The Pirates, like, this is a genuinely,

if this lineup was with a good pitching staff, I think we would say they could compete in the Central. Is that ridiculous? It might be ridiculous. There's still, I just learned about a lot of these guys. I just learned about a lot of these guys are good. So I have to figure that out. I apologize, Pirates fans.

I'm behind the ball on that one. I'm blown away by the payroll splits, Jake. And it's, again, another really nice ballpark. second nice ballpark in these worst three teams. If I just don't picture them being able to win a bidding more for a big time free agent pitcher. I mean, they can fill holes. But if they do ever flip Josh Bell or Polanco or someone of that ilk, I mean, it's got to be for pitching. Chris Archer, it makes up 18% of their payroll.

Isn't that nuts? So like it's supposed to be $57 million, right? Yeah. And three players make up 24 of that $59 million. So like 40% of the Pirates payroll is going to three guys. He was buying dinner, baby. Chris Archer, Gregory, Polanco, and Felipe Vasquez. Those guys are buying dinner.

Yeah, I don't think Felipe is going to be around. Don't let them buy you dinner. Don't let them, yeah, don't. Let him near you at all. Is he still getting that money? It's crazy. I don't know. He can't be, right?

It's supposed to be getting $5 million. He's supposed to be getting $5.7 million this year. It's got to be not paying it, yeah. Wow. All right, Jake, before we did this episode and we've been closing the episodes on this, the Vegas over under, we were a little surprised that, you know, we said they, wow, they do have a lineup bigger than we know, but the Vegas has it at 73. and a half wins, which means they're improving from last year when it seems their goal is to kind of like,

we don't need to improve, you know? Yeah. I'm taking the under. I've taken the under three times in a row now, so I'm just like, you know, I feel like I'm riding chalk like a fool. But that seems like high for me. That number just does seem high, especially we came from the Royals and Orioles that were in the 50s. I took the over on my O's, so I don't have that under remorse like you're having. Yeah.

But this division is just going to be too tough. And even, again, if things start panning out well for Chris Archer, like that means goodbye. Yeah. So I think the under seems like the safe bet. I'll go under to just because as much as I do like this lineup, the team's goals aren't going to be winning. And it's the other four teams in the division. and that makes up half your season. You ever been, you ever seen a game in Pittsburgh?

I've not. I always want to go. It seems like one of the best ones. Let's go. All right, let's go. We'll see you later. Thank you guys for tuning in. We appreciate you.

Bye. Oh.