Talkin' Baseball (MLB Podcast) - Aaron Nola Stays in Philly & A's Going to Vegas | 750

Episode Date: November 20, 2023

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Hello and welcome to Talking Baseball. Aaron Nola stays in Philly. The Braves made a ton of moves. The A's are moving and Trout and Otani both to the Dodgers. Say what? Hello and welcome to Talking Baseball. It is our 750th episode. We thank you very much for joining us.

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You can use code talking as they sponsor the show and everything we do. My name's Jimmy. sitting here with Jake. BPD's in the room and company from Callie in a short sleeve hoodie, which I just found out when Trevor raised his hand. Trevor.

James, Jacob, DVD. What's up? It's really windy out here in Los Angeles. Don't love the wind. It's my least favorite element. Everybody knows that about me. Hail. Hail? Yeah, you like hail? I don't. I mean, I like it more than wind.

Okay. Although I wouldn't want to stand outside in a hail storm. I would say that. All right. Okay. Okay. But it's a pool man thing, James. You know how it is. Oh, I see.

Yeah, wind blows leaves into the pool. It's no good. I am excited to talk some ball today. We're going to hit up Nola and talk about the contract there, maybe some A's stuff. A little off-season ep. And Jake looks like he works the ski lift at like a third rate snow mountain. I think he looks like the guy who's like by the fireplace. at the lodge telling stories about, you know, the slopes,

but he hasn't gone up the slopes in like a decade. I don't ski. I don't ski. I just love the mountain. Trevor, James Davis, happy. Let me be the first to wish you a happy Thanksgiving. Thanksgiving week is here. Can you believe it?

Can you believe it? I had a pretty good weekend. I was chilling with my guy, Brunny. Oh, no, that was you. to an event called cheese giving, which, you know, the thought of it was kind of fun and American. Like, yeah, cheese. Everyone brings a different cheese type dish. Just fart on each other all night. Well, there is lactate there, which I was like, oh, that's funny. Yeah, it takes some lactate. But that prevents the cheese from coming out of you. I threw up all over myself. I threw up all over

myself. I was trying to pay. Really? I was trying to pace myself at cheesegiving. And then I, then cheese cake came out and there was drinks and I threw up all over my leg. You raise your hand, Trev. You ate so much cheese that you threw up. That's something that you actually did this weekend? Yeah, man. Was this like a circle of friends at an apartment or when I got a function? It was a circle friends at an apartment.

Okay. It wasn't like a place that had signed. Everyone you signed up. Everyone brought a different cheese dish. And yeah, I don't know. It started off tasteful and it just didn't end that way. So it's probably my last cheese giving. That sounds like such a bad idea right from the rip. You know, but it was one of those I thought there'd be some irony to it That it would like work out in the end like, oh yeah, I had a little bit of cheese. I had some drinks, I had a good time, had way too much cheese.

The cheesecake really put me in a bad spot because that's one of my weaknesses. So, I mean, I came out the next day feeling good, lost a pound. So overall I'm pretty well. Not bad. Yeah. I was taking a recovery nap when Aaron Nola signed from the cheese giving puk

Yeah, Aaron Nolan signed with the Phillies He went back I believe last episode I kind of just asked you like, You think he goes back to Philly? Because it made sense to me Like let's get the band back together Keep them going That's what Phillies doing.

They got 10,000 more fans on average a game Last year than the season before because they started getting, you know, big names, big faces, and they go on deep playoff runs, and they got a good thing going. And I feel like Nola's good. He's also not going to get hurt. He's pitched a lot over his career and has gone through the whole season.

I don't think he's ever gotten hurt. Maybe he's a stint or two, but I don't think he has any year where you're like, he missed a chunk of these starts. I would have to check the numbers. That's super valuable. But I also think that it's very valuable to just, you know, you want the baseball side and the business side to work in tandem. And this signing, I think, works in tandem really well. Obviously, the baseball side is the more important.

He's a good pitcher. He gets what he's worth. Philly needs starting pitchers. If they lose him, they have to go at someone else. But also, as a Philly fan, like, this is awesome. You just went and made two deep runs in the postseason. He's been one of your dudes. Keep all the familiar names.

on the billboards go have some fun and uh they got like five five more years of this this group and this this philly's team being real lovable wonder if it ever turns and the third party fans don't like him because right now i feel like all of america kind of loves this philly squad besides you know if your team that hate division rivalries so i was excited when i saw this i think it makes total sense too i mean knowing nola um I think him being comfortable there has a lot to do with it. You know, he's had success in Philadelphia. He understands, you know, what spring training is like, what the city is like.

He's just comfortable there. And the recent success that they've had as an organization obviously helps that out as well. If he was somewhere where he was comfortable, but they weren't winning and they didn't have a bright future ahead of him, I don't think he stays there. But everything, like you said, James, kind of lines up here. Like they've been playing great baseball. They have locked up. I think he's the sixth guy they have locked up. with a massive contracts.

Do they have that core that you're talking about? And I've said it on this show many times. It's just a good clubhouse. Like a bunch of guys that really get along together that have fun playing together on the field and off the field. They're all just good buddies. So I was reading an article about it talking about

where Nola could eventually stand with like Philly's all-time great pitchers. And he got started young enough. Like I think he got to the big leagues 22 where you start putting up these numbers like he's going to be you know like a top five philly starting pitcher in in most meaningful categories like by the end of his career if he stays healthy and continues on this pace so i think there's something to do with that too like all just kind of made sense i think most people when we talked about erinola where is you going to go

in free agency i think most people said it'll just make sense he goes back to philadelphia and in this instance it worked out so i'm i i totally agree with you i think that them and the Braves and, you know, these teams that have been locking up their players, I mean, even the Padres. It makes it easy for fans to get into the product because you know the product. Beautiful, boys. Yeah. I mean, not much to add it.

It feels like I think if you had to go deep, you know, just trying to flush out any thought process on there, the only thing negative you can go is that two of Nola's last three years haven't been great. He's had an ERA plus under 120 and 23 that, you know, he has thrown a lot of innings. And if you want to do the, you know, hey, maybe at the end of those seven years, it's not great. Who cares? If you're the Phillies and you're a Philadelphia fan, you could start the season tomorrow. Here's, you know, a lot of teams, oh, this guy's a free agent now. Who are they going to plug and play here?

I'll just do this real quick. Schwarber, Turner, Harper, Castellanos, Boe, Stott, Real Mudo, Marsh, Johann Rojas. They're all there. The rotation is currently Wheeler, Nola, Suarez, Taiwan Walker, and Christopher Sanchez. Okay? In the back end, Alvarado, Soto, Soto, Hoffman, Sir Anthony Dominguez, Strom. Like, they could roll the ball out there tomorrow, and the Phillies would be fine. I'm not going to sleep on Dumbroowski, supposedly they're entering the Yamamoto game,

because why not? It's a great time to be a Philly fan. And I think the thing that ended up being the best move here is kind of playing defense against the Braves. I think, like we said with Nola, his free agency could have brought him anywhere. He's a guy that you can pencil in for 180 innings. There's really not a lot of those guys in Major League Baseball. It felt like the value was going to be okay for what I was saying. Like his free agent year wasn't necessarily his prettiest season,

although he did show up in the postseason and he still has the armed talent to go with it. for me, him not ending up on the Braves, that would have been not a seismic shift, but kind of the gut punch the Braves are looking for for the Phillies. Because let's be honest, the Phillies, and we've done the regular season with them and the Braves before, Phillies are a game away going, it's the best team in the National League,

the Diamondbacks, from being back-to-back World Series teams. And they have everyone there. It's a beautiful thing. So I think this was a bigger shot for, every other team and fan base is free agency that's not getting a guy that they can say, wow, we're going to get 180, 200 innings of this dude. Yeah, when he comes off, the rest of the market looks different, like, in a really weird way. Because I was like, there's the five top guys.

And then Nola comes on like, oh, I don't know. Now you kind of split those guys up differently and like Yamamoto is going to, They say he wants nine years, okay? So that's, there's only, there's only one. Well, it's around 200 million two. So that's one. He's the class of his own now. In that many years,

Snell and Monty are both 31. I don't think they're going to get nine years as starting pitchers until they're 40. I would be surprised if they do, or it would be some funky money. So I think they're going to look for the same years as Nola, but I don't know if they're going to get the same A.A. maybe i don't think i don't know and then you got sonny and stroman who are older they're not

going to get seven years are you thinking this it's 24 point whatever a v here do you think that you're saying that snell and monte will get more than that no i don't think monte will get more than that uh and i don't think they'll get seven years then we'll get six years uh maybe six maybe snail gets like six years 25 mil there's just much more risk with snout than nola because nola has Pitched every year. He's a little more consistent. I said in the video I made, Snell has the higher ceiling,

but it's a real, like, kind of rickety staircase. You got to use to get up there. And some seasons it's just going to collapse and others you're going to get to the top. But I'm interested in what Snell's market and price point is. I think they'll want six years. Maybe they ask for seven now because we heard that all last off season. It was like, well, they paid this guy until his 37-year-old season.

So why don't I get paid till I'm 37? And they use that as the benchmarker. So I think Snell and Monty's agents are going to go out there and say, hey, we want our guy to get paid until he's 37. If Nola got paid to his 37. But I don't know if they're going to get the same AAB or the same years. So do you think so? Do you think Snell is going to get a very similar deal here?

I think Snell gets higher AAV. I think Nola probably could have gotten higher AAB. And I think there are some reports that maybe there was more money out there for him. I think Snell gets around 30. And long ago, our guy that's always in our social media, he was mad at me for saying that. He's saying that the going rate for a Sall Young is more than $30 million a year.

But I in. Well, you think it's more condensed then, like five years 30? Yeah, I think it's like $6.180. That's what, me and C. Rose came up with on, on baseball today. 6.180 seems like it's kind of makes sense. It could be more, dude. Honestly, you kind of never know. that I don't want to say this, but if the teams

that are talking about what they want to pay for starting pitchers, that's what they're going to pay for starting pitchers. It's just kind of how it shapes up. But yeah, I see Snow going a little higher in AV. Monti could, I think there might be a lot of similar deals. Doesn't it always end up that way? Like when you have three or four

starting pitchers and they all kind of are in the same tier, they all usually get right around like the same contract, which is always interesting to me. but I do think Snell will break that a little bit. I'll say 6.180 for Snell. Yeah, I mean, we've done the Snell conversation before, but he just won the Scy Young, and it's a second. Like, it's not, it's not like it's a fluke season necessarily.

The two Sye Young seasons do stand out than his other years. But the other years are good, and they're not like, you know, 2020, 22, 24 starts, 2021, 27 starts. So it's not like he's been out, out. Like he's gotten, you know, he's had nicks and he's going to walk the ballpark and it's a unique pitching style. I think he beats, he's definitely going to beat the AAV. I think it's going to be interesting if he beats the total money.

And we'll see how creative teams get with contracts. And where does he want to land? Like I think we are seeing a little bit of a free agency where these guys care more about East Coast, West Coast. Like, Nola in Philadelphia, there is a comfort level there. Like, he's an LSU guy. He's kind of found himself at home in Philly that I think those negotiations from everything we heard, it sounded like the Braves and maybe a couple other teams were willing to go

more. But if the Phillies were in the ballpark, he was going to go there. For Snell, I think this is great news for him. I think if Wheeler went to another team, I think that closes off an obvious. option for him. I don't know if the Phillies would have been a Snell team, but I think if you're a team like the Braves, who I don't know if they were in on Snell, why wouldn't you be? Like if you're in on Wheeler, you have the rest of the team. Like, you can add a Sigh young guy. If you're willing to pay that for Aaron Nola, who again, technically ERA-wise was below league

average, you could bring in the Sigh Young winner. I think this was, I think him returning to Philly was huge for Snell because all the teams that were potentially thinking about Wheeler, or excuse me, Nola, like could we get him? Could we add him? It's hard to ignore NL. Sy Young winner, two-time Sigh-Young winner, like Snell. I hope he breaks the bank, dude. I really do. In my mind, I'm just stuck on that 30-mill number because the guys that are getting more than him, whether it's Jacob de Grom or like the Verlanders and the Shergers, they're all like, such shorter deals.

And so if Snell wants that, he could do it, but he's going to want more year. So I think it'll bring the AAB down a little bit. I hope he, I hope he surpasses the 30 mark. I think there's teams that'll be able to convince themselves. Like Snell, I think he has 500 less career innings than Nola.

I think there's some teams that'll spin that into a positive. Yeah, what about pitches, though? Because those innings don't know. A lot of runners on bases. I think Snell's going to get paid. I think the innings is crazy. I mean, you're paying for so much less time on the mound than Nola. So if it's more total money or bigger, which I could be wrong here,

but if I'm choosing between the two, I mean, like, the innings are crazy. There's a going back to Nola, there's a great article for people that are interested. in him by Mike Petriello, talking about how he went from being one of the worst people holding runners on, which now there's a stat to measure that, which I love. And he was there with, like, Lester

and all the guys that couldn't even throw the ball to first base. He was right behind those guys. But then in the playoffs, and if we remember correctly, we're watching these games and the guys weren't stealing like we thought they should. And Nola had reintroduced a slide step and kind of corrected that, you know, so he makes this adjustment because he needs to.

I don't know why it took him so damn long, to be honest with you. I think that's kind of like on the coaching staff a little bit there. But he made the adjustment. I think that's cool, man. And you show that right before your free agency. Just another thing that Nola, it's another reason why you pay a guy like that, because he's willing to make adjustments even at, you know, 31 or whatever it is. But it's a great article.

Just to talk about the numbers and how things have all changed because we know the stolen bases are up so much. And now it's like you got to be, as a pitcher, you got to combat that as much as possible. And I think it's cool that we're rewarding guys or at least seeing now who does it the best, which is cool.

Yeah, the list of like worst was interesting. Our guy Glass now is on there. Yes. Do you better. Sendegarde. Doesn't give a fuck. I think he does give a fuck.

I think every pitcher should probably give a fuck. about giving up an extra base. Fair. All right. Monty, you think, you know, obviously his ceiling is kind of at the highest. It's been, I think, since getting traded in this split year. But he's the next guy that might be getting a six-year deal. I think the crowdsource results for fan graphs were spot on here on the AAV.

He just got seven years instead of six. for Nola. And I think they had Monty getting or a similar deal. They had him getting 5 for 105. So they had Nola 6 for 150, 5 for 105 for Monty.

How much is that, A.A.V. 21. They have Sonny and Monty at 21. They have Sonny at three years because he's older and they have Monty at five years. Yeah. I think Mondi's going to, agent's trying to push for a six year.

But I wonder what they value more of that or the AAB. Why not this? I would just say, give me the same deal as Nola. Well, they start there, but he's not going to get that. But he's a lefty. A big body lefty. Same age as Nola. Coming off a really good year.

Yankees screwed up my development. I'm dependable. Reliable. All right. Well, that's Nola. to the Phillies. Back to the Phillies. Congratulations, Philadelphia. My gosh.

It's fun. I do have, look, I have, what's his name? The fanatic right above me right now. Hate mascots, though, I do. Even you, Philly Fanatic, and Blooper and all the rest of them. Even T.C. Bear, not into it. Jake and Bluper kind of a thing.

So, I'll fight him with you. He doesn't deserve it. of my fight. Wow. Hey, where do you guys want to go next? We got the Braves doing a ton of stuff. The A's moving. Some non-tender convos.

Anything really exciting you out of those three? More than other things? I like the Aaron Bummer to the Braves talk. Yeah. It's good because there's some interesting numbers on Bomber's pitches that I just I'm very curious. I don't have the answer, so I guess I'm going to crowdsource from our people that have watched him pitch a lot. But I guess we can talk about it first before we get into that.

The Braves and the White Sox made a trade. Five players leaving Atlanta, going to Chicago. Now, a lot of them are Rule 5 eligible guys. I'm guessing where the Braves would have had that. On the 40, man. The Braves would have had the non-tender them or. DFAM at some point. Or your DFAM, so they trade them instead.

The one name on there is a Soroco, who you're going to know him. Jared Shuster, Nikki Lopez. He was in contention to get the shortstop gig, I believe, in spring training, or at least they were saying he was, and I think he had a down year in AAA. Braden Shoemaker? He was the one that was in contention for the job in spring training. Lopez, they acquired mid-season. Oh.

Taylor-Hern train. You're one bullet point. I was one, shoe make was the one. Is that you say that name? I think so. So White Sox got a bunch of players. I mean, I don't know what they're going to do with those guys. They on their 40 man.

Soroka's interesting. I don't know if he's healthy, but fresh start. And then in exchange, they get bummer. All time reliever name, Aaron Bummer. Lefty arm. And yeah, everything before this season was like, you know, kind of one of the more consistent lefty relievers in baseball. things fall apart this season.

The strikeouts are still there, which means the stuff's still there, which means the Braves believe in him enough to tap into him. And I'm sure they will. They're an organization that's shown that. And I think from the White Sox side, I guess it's funny. I mean, each of these guys,

you can convince yourself of a lotto-ticket either way, like the Soroka thing, man, it felt like when we were originally starting talking baseball, episode 750 Treff thanks uh like you know it was soroka's braids like syroca was the young ace of of the new up-and-coming braves that is like cool this canadian dude he's moaned people down awesome he's been missing uh more or less some freak injuries it's brutal he gets a fresh start sometimes that's what you need um shoemake yeah i don't know uh lefty hitting infielder he just turned 26 the White Sox in theory turned one lefty reliever into a group of lottery tickets

that if one of them can become something for them, that's a win for the White Sox. So I don't know. I guess for me, I'm more interested on the Braves kind of getting rid of all these guys and what are their next moves because let's be honest, the White Sox next moves aren't going to be that exciting. They're picking up the phone. They're basically out there publicly saying like, hey, We got guys.

Why not? You want Robert? Want him? Want him? Do you want him? Do you want him? Do you want him? Do you think they make him available?

Like, is he the only guy they don't make available? They, like, said, why not make him available? Listening on. Yeah, they were like. Why not listen? Yeah. They said, Hit us up.

How many guys, how many other guys are they going to get hit up for? Cease. Yeah. a big one. Cease to the Dodgers was the big rumor, and that makes a lot of sense. Cease to anyone makes sense. Yeah, but the Dodgers and Cease's skill set,

I feel like they, like, love that, and they probably have a little tink in mind. Okay. I think speaking of tinks. Yeah. Is it tweak or tink? Is that a thing? You said, we, I,

We both said tinks. We said tinks. I don't know why we said that. Tinkering. Tinkering. That's why we said it. 2019, the run value on Aaron Bummer Sinker was 20. Elite.

Probably the best in baseball, but I had to guess. And then it's just gone from there. And he throws that pitch a lot. But I guess, you know, and again, I didn't watch them pitch a lot this year. I didn't watch a lot of White Sox baseball unless they were playing against my twins. The location was bad. I think the defense was bad. bad the babbip was high all these things account and that's why if you look at you know the his

phip it's still kind of pretty good um it's just the you know the eRA is not there and the hard hit percentage was um high as well 54.2 percent hard hit percentage on his sinker this year as opposed to 39.7 in years past like that's just bad location so if you're the braves you're probably just you're thinking arm slot you're thinking um um Honestly, you're probably just thinking a healthy off season. Let's get some eyes on him. We'll fix him pretty easily.

And I know you can't, and I always say this, so I'm kind of going back on some of my words. I know you can't figure your bullpen out in the off season. It doesn't work that way, people. But having a guy like this who's had real good success and who you feel like is kind of just one tink or tweak away from, you know,

regaining that success makes all. I mean, this is a braze move, and I love it for them. I really, really do. They're clearing a lot of space. How many spots do they have open on their 40 men right now? Don't know where their 40 man exactly stands, but this move alone opens up four spots. And then they non-tendered like four guys as well, I thought.

A few guys, yeah. They, uh, yeah, they opened up a lot of spaces. Various vines on that 40, man. I hope the White Sox get something out of this. I think for them, between Lopez and Shoemake, they have their Tim Anderson replacement for 2024. They're comfortable giving those two guys a shot. They've seen a lot of Nicky Lopez.

I think they're comfortable rolling the ball out there with those two guys with where that team's at. Shoeake and Schuster are both former first round picks. Same with Soroka, and you know his story. So I don't know. Hey, maybe that vaunted White Sox coaching staff

has something they can tap into with those guys. And if they get anything out of one of them, that kind of matches the price of a lefty reliever. James, I have a question. I think that you'll probably be able to answer. Okay.

And I'll answer a question. 30 guys on the 40 man for the Braves. Wow. Yeah. I wonder if they have a bunch of guys they have to protect. That dead length. That's done.

It's already done? Yeah. They're protected. They're going to. Basically, they're like, you know, we got our good guys. If you're not, we had so many guys that are 100% staying around that if you're not that, you're out and we're going to, you know, bring up some rookies and put them on the 40 man or they're just going to have a big off season. I don't know.

That's crazy. Wait. They've protected all the guys that need to protect and they still only have 30 people on. The deadline was last week. Yeah. That's what I kept seeing. I'm like, what's going on here. My question to you, James,

baseball, I'm on Aaron Bombers page. This year, he was 99th percentile and barrel percentage. So he was missing barrels, right? If you're high as a pitcher in barrel percentage, you're missing the barrels, right? Yes, because Red indicates he's good at that. So he's got a low barrel percentage. But he's 11th percentile, bad, and hard hit percentage.

Well, you could hit a ball hard. but not barrel it. Hit it into the ground. Sinker guy. Yeah. But so. That's what I'm saying. He's a sinker guy, but they weren't,

they weren't hitting it hard, but they were barreling it. No, they weren't barreling it. Because I think barreling takes it. He's got, he had a 2.7% barrel rate this year, which is the lowest it's ever been. The launch angle, obviously with the sinker, takes away the barrels but they're still hitting it hard just into the ground so the defense was poor

behind him you could say good a lot of people don't like uh white socks 97 percentile ground ball percentage it all makes sense to me now thank you it's all clear in my mind

Braves their current bench is listed as uh darno which I like that uh Luke Waddle not super familiar with Cody Milligan same and Forrest Wall who I like the name I think you're going to see the Braves make some veteran moves I wonder if they make a Rule 5 move that would be kind of fun

you'd like to think they lean more veteran with how their roster set up Von Grisham is listed as their starting left field Can you give me that bench again? Luke Waddle Luke Waddle so he's not even on the 40 man so like Fangraf's kind of just guessing there Cody Milligan also not on wall he's on the 40 man yeah Cody he's not though um and then so so they don't even have enough players for fan graphs to make a

bench at a 26 man bench at of what you're gonna do braves i think that's interesting that you mention that because if you're a veteran and you're kind of you're understanding you're probably not going to get a starting role you're going to you want a bench job somewhere i mean the braves is probably one of the most appealing places to go like you have a very good chance to win Like it's a great city. Like everything works out. It's got to be one of the more appealing, like, veteran bench player destinations in the big leagues right now.

Moose? Does he want to go be on the bench for the Braves? It's so important to have good depth, too. That must be what they're thinking. We're going to sign a bunch of just get our depth as good as possible. And I have to imagine Von Grisham and left field isn't there like a plan? for that position, but maybe they're in on it. I know he's messed around out there.

So at least one starting level position, I think, is open. Otani? Ooh. You haven't talked about Otani yet? I don't know. No need. All right. That's the Braves and the White Sox.

The non-tender happened, and that's, you know, you have to pay them what they're worth via the arbitration scale. Or you can just say, nah, we're good. And a lot of players that you've heard gotten on tendered, Daniel Vogelback got non-tendered, Dakota Hudson got non-tendered, Tim Hill, Austin Nola, different phone calls home from the Nola boys. Jacob Stallings got non-tendered.

Rowdy Telez got non-tendered. The biggest one that actually, I think, shifts some teams, you know, a couple teams might all go, was Brandon Woodruff from the Brewers. He had surgery. He missed all of last year, but his ARB number was $11 million. So basically, ah,

I'd rather give him like $11 million over three years and let him rehab or come back. It's probably what teams are thinking. Even the Brewers said we might, we're not saying goodbye to him yet. We just weren't going to pay him 11 for one year when we don't even know how healthy. I think he was due for 15 this year.

Oh, really? It says on our sheet 11.6. A few different projections out there. Either way, was it a number they wanted to pay for the upcoming year where he's not going to pitch. Yes. So that's interesting. You think anyone picks him up? Thousand percent.

Yeah, they'd have to pick him up and then just automatically try to extend him. I guess I knew someone's going to pick him up. I guess who do you think is going to pick him up? any teams you know the raise who can wait a year I mean the Phillies can wait a year

right there's a lot of teams that could wait a year that you could use a pitcher in the following I mean I don't know you have to have the money to do it

but if you need starting pitching like this is a guy that what you're just giving up one year getting him healthy and then you can have

a guy that's been a front line starter in the big weeks. I think I'd be chompy at the bit if I was a team to go get him. Yeah, I just flip-flopped on myself because I was saying, you know, the value in this is going to come

in the 2025 season. He's most likely out for all of next year that I was going to say, if you're one of the medium market teams, like I guess the team's running through my head just for examples of media, like the Seattle's or someone like that that you can, you know, you're going to get really good value in 2025.

But if that's the thought process, then one of the big boys needs to do this. If you're the Boston Red Sox, like, what are you doing? I have their page up right now. It's like, the Red Sox should go get him. Then they should get Otani and then the rotation's set in 2025. Like, go. If you're the Dodgers who we constantly talk about like this, this is a big boy move. You're going to eat it for one year to have bad value on.

but if you're a big team, you can handle that easily, that you're going to get incredible value on one year of Brandon Woodruff. That's just a no-brainer. So one of the big boys needs to clean this up. He's not going to make what he was projected to make. That's not what's going to happen. He's non-tenured, so someone's going to sign him as a free agent, and they're going to give him $4 million for this year, something like that.

I don't know. There's a certain amount that he has to make, I believe. You can only go a percentage down. He's going to make that, whatever that is, the lowest that they can pay him for this year. and then kind of back up to where you'd expect a guy of his caliber to get, whether that's the 15 to 20 range, if they decide to extend him per year.

And I don't know what he wants. Like, does he want 24 and then 25, and that's it? So he can reenter free agency with a cleaner slate. It's going to be interesting to see what happens with him because he has to decide as well. But I see that happening, a team saying, okay, We'll give you $5 million for this year to rehab. And then three more years on top of that will give you a 20. So you can do like a four year 64, something like that.

That's a steal for a team. Yeah, if I'm Woodruff, I don't want that, though. Yeah, I know. That's the thing is like he has to figure out what he wants. Two-year deal for 15. I don't think you sign that. Per year or both? Both.

Whatever, if it was 10, well, I was going off like the, the 10 ARB, five for this year, 10 for next. Whatever the ARB is actually going to be, give him that in 2026 or 2025 and give him a couple mill to rehab and spread it out. It's an interesting decision. A lot of guys signed two-year deals. Dodgers did this with Tommy Canely. The Rays have done this for it. The Red So the Red Sox did it with Paxton or who did it with Paxton?

Evaldi. So, yeah, it's happened a bunch. Usually they just spread out over the two years. Luxury tax-wise, yeah. spreads out A-A-V. The Rays, obviously, they aren't considered a money-spend team, but they've done this move before when Avaldi was coming. They're into it.

Yeah. The math works for a lot of teams. A's are gone. Someone's going to make a good bet on Brandon Woodruff. That's what I'd say, Jim. Mm-hmm. And you could be one of those people. at the Draft King's Sportsbook.

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eligibility and deposit restrictions apply. Bonus bets expire 168 hours after issuance terms at sportsbook. draftrackings.com slash football terms. It is official. The A's are leaving Oakland. But it's also not even really official yet because the mayor of Oakland is like, where it's not done yet, we're going to try and save this. then they voted and they're moving.

But what's interesting is there's a three-year period where the A's are homeless. And we don't know where they're going to play yet. Most people think the AAA place in Vegas, I doubt they're going to stay in Oakland for three years. Their lease with the Coliseum is like up. So I think they literally can't unless. Unless they offer them like a. three-year, like, Leesius Oakland gets some money, but that would be weird and bad.

And there's too much bad blood for that. That's how. They're playing in Oakland in 2024. Yes. But then 25, 26, 27, they don't have a home. Now, in the history of baseball, we've had stuff like, obviously in the COVID season, we had stuff like this. When the Yankees renovated the stadium, the Yankees shared Shea Stadium with the Mets in 76 or whatever that was.

Me and Bebes were talking before the show. Like, we, I haven't been alive for a relocation in MLB. We've seen expansion team start when I was a kid, but I haven't done this. In football, they seem to happen overnight where they play. Well, do the expos to gnats? Well, location, right?

Yeah, I guess so. I was like a four. So they already have the stadium built? For who? for the Nats. No, they had to play it. They played at RFK, I think. RFK, yeah, that's right. So. Yeah, yeah, just I guess that's all re-franchising or whatever. And then Zamerman hit the first ever Homer walkoff, right? Yeah, I think that's the scariest part for, if you're an Oakland A's fan, which has been filled with scary parts.

and you're like, hey, let's do this. Let's, you know, I'll stick with the A's. For three years, we don't know where they're playing. The best option, if I'm an Oakland A's player, would be let's go to Oracle Park. That's like the biggest win you could possibly get. We get to play there. That's sick.

When I hear we're playing AAA games, that's tough, but I mean, I guess we, you know, we saw the Blue Jays fight through that. Like, you can improve the accommodations enough, But, man, that's for like, I don't know, the Oakland A's were, we're kind of proud for a while. Like, money ball to, you know, every five years we're going to have a three-year run where we've got a lot of talent and we're good and that's kind of fun. And the Vuvuizuela's in the stands.

Like, this franchise essentially has no hope until 2028. Like, Treve, you're a prospect guy. How about your guy, Zach Gala? What's he supposed to be thinking right now? It's tough. I mean, if you're a player in the organization, yeah, it's tough. The uncertainty that it's ahead of you is, it's brutal. I mean, thinking about these guys, because they do have like a nice young core that came up this year.

Our guy Lawrence Butler is one of them. You mentioned Gelloff and, you know, there's other guys there. Like, there's a, there's always a core coming, isn't there with the A's. But for them, you get this season where, you know, fans were. actively trying not to go to the games, you know, just to say F off to the ownership. Next year, I mean, what's going to be different about next year there? You're going to be playing in front of, you know, essentially nobody. And then three years after that, you didn't even know where you're going to play. You might be playing in a AAA stadium or sharing facilities.

It's like it's, it doesn't feel like the big leagues if you're in Oakland A. And maybe it hasn't felt that way for quite some time. I don't know, man. You know, you're not going to sign any free agents. Not that they do really anyway, but like who's going to want to go play for your team if you're just running around like that? Like you have to think about your family and all those things and you're playing in two different places. It's not, it's not an ideal situation whatsoever.

That's where I got even more sad thinking, oh shit. Like they're not going to care about the team until 2028. Like if they go play at a minor league stadium, they're not going to do all the stuff to try and get people out there to come come watch they might hire a marketing firm that that firm tries but like you know they're not like we got to pack the stadium we got to make a fan experience like no that's coming don't worry that's coming they might try to have a plan where they have like the young kids play and then they get to like that rebuild in the first year in the real stadium so they're just trying like they're retooling rebuilding along the way but it's not they're set up for

success really right now for that. So I was like, shit, is this just going to suck for four more years? It's already been the last two of them actively like not caring about the on product field and and having bigger things being prioritized in their brains. So that sucks. Don't you think like the best thing for them? If they're going to Vegas and then this is it's done, isn't the best thing just to go play in Vegas? Like does it like go like kick your AAA team out and have them be the nomads and put your big league team up at the facility. I think that I mean sorry. Yeah. Be in the area that you want to be and at least develop diehard fans. You can that are there. But yeah. The other thing is should they still be the A's? I know that and I know that teams move a lot. But it's uh,

been the A's every other city they've been. Yeah. But when was the last that was like we're talking. It's been 50 years. Yeah. I don't know. I feel like if you're John Fisher, like, you submit a bid to just start. A rebrand makes sense. You can hang on to the, you know,

nostalgia and the history. Where have they been? They've been Philly. They've been. Kansas City. Are they going to decorate the stadium in Las Vegas with like, you know, 70s, A stuff and like,

because you just killed all of that, man. Hey, I guess I haven't been to as many, minor league baseball games as I'd like in in the past couple years you know show guy now this Las Vegas ballpark ain't bad it's not bad like I'm sure the attendance you know were limited but that was already happening in Oakland this Vegas what's it called ballpark's pretty nice I typed into Google Las Vegas AAA baseball because that's what I've got okay but it's it's nicer than I thought I don't know I guess I've been out of the minor league stadium for a little bit Like this isn't where me and Treves, Newburgh and Rock Cats were playing.

This is nice. There's a couple of nice places in the minor leagues, a few. I think, yeah, I think that's the solution is just to get down there and set up routes as quickly as possible. Rooted in Vegas, right? Are the fences legit? That's what they've always said. No, it's the, no, the ball's going to fly. I know, because we get three years of that and just have another, like, home run champ where it's questioned.

Ryan Noda. I guess that is. That is baseball. Oh, it's called Las Vegas Ballpark. Easy fucking enough. Looks like we might have a pool out in right center field. Two pools going on in the West Coast. This is like the Arizona Coyotes playing out of Mollett,

whatever that place is called their college facility. 5,000 people, NHL team. Unlike them, unlike the A's, the Arizona Coyotes, they have no idea when they're getting, they're like trying to buy land. They're just out of, they just have no idea. No, we're just here. Looks like the capacity of Las Vegas ballpark listed on Wikipedia is 8196, 8,100.

8,000. Okay. Nice. Well, the A's, they didn't fill that a couple times last year. Only the A's organization has any issue with that number. All right. So that's the news on the A's. It's happening, but way slower than anyone thought it would happen.

some other little odds and ends to round out and keep you guys well informed the Rockies acquired Cal Quantrell Yes big moves for Jake's rocks Um sorry Cal last night I saw Scott Barlow went to the Guardians yep Guardians and Padres swap Scott Barlow and uh angel de los Santos so beaves your thoughts on that I am confused by, you know, reliever for reliever, I think similar service time left, just want new guys. Cleveland also signed outfielder Ramon Luriano, Laser Luriano, to a one-year contract and avoided arbitration.

I think the only other thing that I've got that was a surprising one. Kyle Wright to the Royals, our Braves, we talked about their other. trade. Kyle Wright, who's probably going to miss all of 2024 with shoulder surgery. You remember he was the 1998-Sai Young winner with his 20 wins a year ago. He's kind of been out of the picture. Brave saved some money. And they get back Jackson Koher, who if you are a Royals fan, you just have to be nervous

as all hell. This is a former first-round pick that had very little success with the Royals that if the Braves want him for Kyle Wright, and I know they're saving a little money, but, you know, they could have, they could probably use Kyle Wright in 2025. They see something with this guy that the Royals aren't seeing that's got to, that would make me nervous.

Maybe the Braves got rid of Kyle Wright, and they're just going to sign Woodruff. They're like, no, we only got room for one guy rehabbing. Woodruff in Atlanta, that just feels like a fit, huh? Yeah. Keep the beard. It does. I do like when you said Boston for him, being honest.

Oh, also, speaking of Boston, Luis Uriath. Reith. Is going to the Mariners because they love infielders on the outs. I don't know if Luis Eriese is on the outs. But if you got an infielder that's going to be like, you know, you get almost pencil in 80 OPS plus, Mariners are like, we want that guy. Mariners fans I saw on Twitter were joking about how they're just

just doing a whole lineup of utility guys in Julio. I mean, it's been a lot of guys like this. They've gotten the last couple years, the Mariners. Yeah. Someone comment the list. Not to pile on the Mariners, but it seems like they're out of the Otani sweepstakes. Those are the rumors?

Like, why? I am having a hard. Are you already out? Speaking on the Otani sweepstakes, I've thought I was Dodgers for the last three years. They aren't even having success trying to act like it's not. Now, there might be a surprise team in the works, but they did like one week of like, these are all the suitors. And then it was like, that's,

basically the Dodgers and the Cubs are trying. They can't even, they haven't even use the Yankees as bait yet because the Yankees aren't bait anymore. They don't do shit. But it's, I thought there would be a bigger flurry of like, everyone's in. Sounds like it's. I think we're seeing, I think we're seeing Otani's side do a very good job of keeping it very close. That's what I think. I think they've talked to many teams. And I think they're just really, really tight about it.

You saw his MVP announcement. It was him and his dog. This guy is not like... Bring me back to Kershaw days. Him and his 12 dudes behind him. Where's, uh, what's your guy, Nez saying? Nezbolello. I've purposely not asked him about anything.

I just feel like it's not the right thing to do. I did ask him about that glove situation because I was like, as we can't be given out 1.2 billion gloves. That's not right. And he corrected us on that. But other than that, I haven't asked, man. I don't know. I guess I can.

I got some other news on this trip about the Cubs bench coach role and stuff. Wow. Do you want to share those? I can't share, no. Huge. It's kind of sad news, so. Oh, my God. They're getting rid of the bench in the dugout?

Yeah, the bench is gone. Folding chairs only. Swiss balls. Gabe Kapler's, took over Swiss balls only. You have to sit on them. Yeah. No, standing desk or Swiss bowl. If you're looking to lose five to ten minutes from your day today, go check out Gabe Kapler's Instagram.

Yeah, that's good. Okay. Unreal. All right. Thank you guys for tuning in. Appreciate you very much. We will keep you informed if anything happens, I guess. It's heating up. Well, Hector Gomez says that Mike Trout and Shoahe are going to the dog.

I said that at the top of the show I never followed up. They're both going there. See ya. Jake sucks. Tani to the Cubs. I'm drinking the Kool-Aid. I think so. They're valuing secrecy.

We're at John Boy Media signing show here at Tom. That'd be sick. We should do that. We don't get that coin. That kind of coin goes to Joe's. Think about the attention we did. Chris Rose.