Talkin' Baseball (MLB Podcast) - Blake Snell Signs with Giants & Our 2024 Prop Bets | 810

Episode Date: March 20, 2024

Use code TALKIN for $20 off your first SeatGeek order. https://seatgeek.onelink.me/RrnK/TALKIN  Go to http://shadyrays.com and use code TALKIN for 50% off 2 or more pairs of polarized sunglasses.Post your job for free at https://linkedin.com/talkinFind The Deal with Alex Rodriguez on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. https://link.chtbl.com/A2Mcr1Oc++++Timestamps:0:00 The 2024 Season Has Begun!5:50 OVERS17:45 UNDERS29:00 SPRINKLES40:15 LOCKS49:40 Blake Snell Signs 2-year, $62M Deal with the SF Giants Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Hello and welcome to talking baseball. It's everyone's favorite episode of the year, our 2024 prop bets. Let's do it. Hello and welcome to talking baseball. Thank you. My name is Jimmy. His name is Jake. Trevor's here.

BPD behind the dish. It's brought to you by Seatkeek, and we are one game into the 2024 MLB season. The Dodgers win in Korea. we're not talking about that. We're talking about our prop bets. Jake, excited. You got some good ones? You ready to make everyone some money?

Yeah, I mean, I was going to, James, Trev, Davis, I was going to take Dodgers to win today, so I'll just take that off. But, yeah, we'll put that in as 1-0. Undefeated March so far for the Dodgers, kind of piggybacking off the raise last year, so hopefully they don't slow down. I'm groovy, man.

We're heading down to spring. training in beautiful Tampa, Florida. Doing an event down there, watching the Blitzball finale. Make sure you guys watch it on Warehouse Games. Excited to get a little, a nice relaxing taste of spring training. We kind of haven't really done it in Florida in a minute. So excited for that. And baseball's here, or Korea baseball is here.

Tough to get the ball out there, Trev. I also sprinkled Will a glove malfunction on live TV. So I hit my sprinkle already. So that's good for me. I did, you know what? I wasn't sure if I was going to make it up for the game today, but I was able to see some of it. And man, what a disappointing inning for the Padres.

And Padres fans there when they had the lead. No ball hit over 100 miles an hour except for the flyout of Freddie Freeman. Dodgers seem like they're inevitable. But I'm excited for this episode. I think it's one of my favorite of the year. I got some good ones. I think I've learned a lot from you two. Typically, I'm a little bit too optimistic with my bets this year.

Going the other way. Oh, yeah. That's a mystic. Hell yeah. I like that. I like that a lot. So the deal is, the deal is each one of us has to have a bet where we're taking the over. We have to have a bet where we're taking the under.

We have to have a bet that we're saying this is. lock. Are there any odds rules on locks? It has to be like within minus 150 or a bigger return. It's got to be like close to even or better payout. Okay. You can't be given like a minus 500 law. Like Dodgers to win the NOS is minus 450.

That's too lucky. There's no return on that. We're trying to get the people, you know. Money. Okay. Yeah, that makes sense. and then a sprinkle where it needs to be, well, 500?

Is that what we're doing? What have we done before? I feel like it was always been 1,000. Do we have the last year? We have the prior ones. We don't have a hard rule, but if your sprinkle is only a plus 500, I think the sprinkle I took was less

because I went by Trev's rules. It's fine. Well, I think sprinkle, you know, I've got a reasonable sprinkle and I've got a crazy sprinkle. So different things mean different things to different people. Write that down, Trev. Write that down. Okay, hold on.

I got my pen here, pencil. But as Trev is displaying, the wrong pair of sunglasses can make you look bad. So get yourself a pair of shady rays. They are the best in the game. We've got our personal Jake and Johnboy pairs. I wear my pair every day. Oddly proud of them.

And they're kind of nice. They've got a little green hue. on them if I'm using that right. Shady Rays is independent sunglass company that has five star ratings from over 300,000 people. They also have their lost and broken

replacement guarantee. So if you lose them or break them, you're covered. You got Sunnies for life and exclusively for our listeners. Shady Rays is given their best deal of the season. Go to ShadyRays.com. Use code talking for 50% off 2 plus pairs of polarized sunglasses.

And that offer applies to the custom Jimmy and Jake collab shades. Hello. So go get yours now. There's a link in the description. Shadyrays.com. Use code talking 50% off two or more pairs of premium polarized shades. Jim, do you just have the light bulb go off? Well, the sprinkle I have written down, uh, part of me is plus 5,000. Oh, 500. Ooh. Okay. Yeah, I was looking back and I think we've, we've always been like plus 1,500. Who sexy? I'm okay with that. Mine is of that. We're just a, we're just a solid one. We're just a

establishing rules before we did the show, guys. That's it. That's fine, man. Jake, you look like someone that lives in L.A. but wants everyone to know, actually, I'm from New York. Right. Yeah. Yeah, you know, I came out for an acting thing,

but, you know, I got close with the agency, and it turned out I was pretty good at it, so I just, I've been there for six years now. I can see that. I can see that for you. Love L.A., so I'm never going home. Bye, right, right, right, bye, bye, bye, bye. It's New York, though.

New York's the best. Oh, it doesn't get better? I still had out summer, summer. Where should we start? I mean, I'm ready to go. You want me to start this bad boy off with a banger? Well, should we do them as a group? Do we want to do all our overs first, all our unders first?

I think historically we've done it, all our overs, all our unders, all our sprinkles, out our locks. We can change that. It's our world. Treve, what do you got? I think we should save our locks. Okay. I told Beavers, I'm going to do like a two-part young guy over here.

First is going to be Bobby Miller. You know him. He's a starter on the Dodgers. I think the sky's a limit for this guy. I really like him. Last year, he had 100. Let me get this up because I just went off the page. I did research on this very same one, I think.

Strikeouts? Yeah. Okay. Last year, he struck out 119 guys. and 124 and a third innings. That's good for 8.6Ks per 9. I expect him to throw more innings than that. This guy's a horse.

Like he's built. This guy looks like what we used to say, like a thoroughbred on the mound was. He looks like an innings eater, a guy that's going to approach 200 innings. Right now they have his over under K's at 143 and a half. So I'm figuring if he gets up into 160, 170 inning. mark that he's going to surpass this.

I actually think he might improve on the 8.6 Ks per 9. I think he get up there above 9. So if he does that and he kind of takes the next step like I think he will, this one's kind of a no-brainer. So I'm taking Bobby Miller over

143 and a half K's. And my other young guy over is Ellie Day of Cruz 127 and a half hits. I'm taking the over on that. He's going to either be hitting first or second in that lineup. his minor league batting record suggests he can hit for some average. He's been a 300 hitter throughout his minor league career many times.

I don't think he's going to be that at the big league level. But I just think he's going to play enough, get enough at bats for that 127 and a half hit mark is too low for me. So that's my young guy. Take it to the next level over package for you. Parlay it if you want. Take him as singles. But I like both of those. That's Bobby over 143.

and a half and Ellie over 1 27 and a half respectively. So I looked into the Bobby Miller strikeouts. I was searching for an under and I just wanted to look into that line because I was like, okay, rookie pitcher last year, are his innings going to move up that much or his games? He averaged like 5.4 strikeouts a start last year, which isn't that high. So then I did the checking of the number, 144 strikeouts. think he's going to start 30 games. That's 4.8 a game, which you should be able to do.

So it does come down to health and innings. So ultimately, I decided, no, I'm not going to take this as an under. I don't know if I'm taking it as an over because one injury or, you know, shut down month to save him or preserve him. But I agree. I agree that it's likely. No, the favor. Yes. Well, yeah, you have to.

Yeah. You have to take. Into account, healthiness and not. So a lot of like, the first year we did this, it was basically we took the under on all the dudes that always get injured. And it was, we like, it was the most impressive betting from non-betting show ever.

I think Draft Kings took our first show and was like, we need to make some. It was crazy. What they were like projecting an offering was nuts. These fools know what we're doing? What? That's not how this works. Any thoughts on that?

welcome people um i i just know i saw a lot of ellie ellie dela cruz and o'neill cruise they they get lumped together because last name cruise they're both freak athletes they're both short stops they're both nl central for me those were just no no don't touch uh because i have no clue man i i haven't seen these guys on the field enough um i i guess that's a little more o'neal cruise uh than ellie but you know ellie got got baseballed a little bit last year you He was the B's knees, and then he ended up really struggling for a little bit there. So for those guys, for me, I almost didn't want to put a betting interest in it, because I think if I did, I was going in a negative direction,

and I want to root for those guys, just because I would want to see a little more out of them. So yeah. Okay. Just to update, it was 2022 looking at the sheet here, where I went five for five. Jake went four for five. Trev went. I don't know.

There's a lot of different colors here. Two for four, three for five. But we all hit our lock. And I hit my sprinkle, which was plus 3,000. And Jake hit his sprinkle, I think. But that was the year before. Last year, we went like 500, all of us.

Jake had the best year last year. He went three for four. Treve and I both went two for four. Jake hit everything but a sprinkle. Hey now. Yeah. I didn't hit my lock last year, neither did Trev. Nice.

I don't think I hit my lock either. Damn. That was. Cole became not a strikeout guy. Robbie Ray got hurt. Right. Right. Okay.

Jake, do you want to go next? I can go next so where I'm doing my over. Yeah. Okay. Well, I'll see if. Again, these ones were tough to quantify if they qualify as an over. If you guys are against it, I have more of a peer over. The player head-to-head ones.

I have that as well, so I'm voting to qualify. I think the player head-to-head ones are hilarious, and technically you're picking a player over another player. That would hold up in court, Trev. I saw that face. I don't think that holds up. I know bird law. for me, this is fun just because the names jumped off the page for me.

And for home run hitting, I hold them in different classes. Springer versus Correa. God fucking damn it. Okay. That's my over. Okay. We have the same exact thing. Who are you taking?

Springer. Okay, yeah. Cureas never beat them once, ever. Then take it. That's funny that out of all the options, you and I gravitated to the same exact head-to-head home runs. It's a very like, just, that's almost needle in haystack, you and I finding the same. Well, the names are attractive for obvious reasons, former teammates, but I guess that was

shocking to me that Springer was minus 120 because when he's at his best, he is a home run hitter, and he took a little baby step back last year, but normally his health is the issue. But he played a chunk of games last year. Where Correa, when he's at his best, I don't think he's like a home run hitter. Like, he's got that in his bag, obviously, but he's kind of gap to gap. I think Minnesota's a bigger ballpark coming from Houston. Crawford Boxes Trev. And I don't know. This was the guy that got the injury diagnosis of like worst ankles ever.

So that was my spin there. Also Springer, top of the lineup is going to see more pitches to hit where Cray is at three. And whoever's behind him, he might get more, you know, tough pitches on the edges. So that was another logic I went. That is kind of wild that we both found. So you take that one, Bebs, give me an Astero. there. I'll go with Old Faithful for my over. Frederick Freeman on hits. What do you guys think Freddie Freeman's over under on hits would be?

182. I think that's probably higher than that. I think it's probably like 191.5. 176 and a half. Freddie Freeman last year had 211 hits. The year before that, he had 199. The year before that he had 180. 80. And the past three years, he's played 161 games, 159, 159. So they have it at that line because only 10 players had, or only eight players had more than 175 hits last year. So like they're putting in the top 10 line.

I get it. And it is low. It's crazy. I mean, Freddie Freeman has a two-week injury. All of a sudden it gets tight, but he hasn't had that since 2017. So I think he's the best pure hitter in baseball. So I know, no shame in my game, uh, going over to that one. I don't hate it. It's a good line.

I figured you were going to take that. I feel like you've done that before in years past. There's a, there's a little bit of a formula there. I think I did something kind of similar with Bo Bichette. Um, you, last year, your lock was Freddy's over on hits, one to 71 and a half. That's called investing people. You take that money, you put it back on Freddie.

Kind of believing him. invest in a Bitcoin. We'll circle back to that later in the show. It's down over the last couple weeks. You're down. So I think I stepped on your over there, Jim. Yeah, I'm there. I'm good.

Got mine. So James, George Springer over Carrey. Over Carlos Carrera. Home runs. Yeah. Marking this down. That's funny. Okay. Bebers.

Yeah, I in between two Homer-related ones, I'll just throw two out there, so maybe I'll just throw both out there? Do they coincide? Because I did young hot guys. They're both faces of franchise. Corbyn Carroll's over under on homers is 23.5. He had 25 last year.

Power usually ages better. I like a lot of what he might do this year. So I'm taking his over on 23 and a half homers. And the other one, I'll shout out. If I'm picking one is the, like, I think it's the Carroll one. but Bryce Harper over 30 and a half homers. Last year there's a lot of talk about the time missed early on and then took a while for the power to come back

and he still had 21 homers in a slightly shortened season. I think his power will be back in a bigger way. The ballpark favors him. The elbow's better. He's more familiar at first base now. I like him to hit more homers than that because he usually does. What was the line for Bryce?

What's that? What was the line for Bryce? Bryce is, I believe, 30 and a half. Corbin's, like, didn't pass the sniff test. What was the Corbyn's? Corbyn's is 23 and a half. He had 25 rookie year last year. I mean, it's obviously tight, and again, injury risk, but.

Yeah, injury with kind of any of these can get you on their own. What about Bryce Harper's spring training stats? Zero homers, a little back issue right now. Corbin Carroll with no spring training. homers either. Uh-oh, I might move it to a lock now. They're saving them.

That means it's good. It means it's good. Okay. I like the overs. Let's get a, where this, our bread and butter was made on the unders. You guys love the unders.

It's just a safer bet because of obviously injury. So I know it hurts. I know it hurts. Evil glasses on to do this. If there's one we hope to get wrong, these. Yeah, I have two here that I've been kind of going back and forth on.

It's going to be an RBI total. I think that's kind of been a staple of our, of this show for us as well. Powell Schwaber. At the top of that Philly's lineup, his over under RBI total is set at 96 and a half, which he's only eclipsed one time. It was last year. He had 104 ribby's last year with 47 dingers. I'm going to play the James card a little bit.

He played 160 games last year. Don't know if he's necessarily going to get that many games, you know, year after year after year. He is going to be 31 this year. And also there's been a lot of talk about that nine hole for the Phillies. Johann Rojas is trying to figure out his swing. They're making adjustments. He's been really bad in spring training.

Don't know if, like, necessary, there's going to be a lot of, opportunities for RBIs or a ton of them other than homers for Schwabes. Like that's what he does. And being lead off, you know, a lot of times they're going to be solo, one nothing type of guy.

So I'll take the under on that. I'm actually pretty confident in it. Like it's just he's got to play all year long. He's got to hit, you know, upper 40s homers to get there. And then the combination of Johann Rojas and, and him not really swinging the bat too well right now or ever

brings me to believe that Schwerber will be right around the 90-ish mark because that's where he's kind of lived before. I mean, he's all over the place of his RBI total. So if you go back to his page, like, you know, he's hit his little, I mean, with a full season of games, he's only played over 155 games three times in his career.

So that factors into it And when he's done that He said 92 94 and then 104 last year So I'm going to bank on under 96 and a half for Swarps Okay He's gonna be mad at you Tough guy to root against

I mean I'm not saying that this guy's not gonna hit fucking 70 RBI is 96 and a half He's only done it once in his career Yeah I like it It's a line I saw and wrote down Um A couple haters over here of my sides.

If I had to place a bed, I would be on the under there. I'm trying to see if this one makes sense. I have two unders. Same category. Stolen bases. Oh, I have one in stolen bases. So if you take mine, I get that one.

That's crazy. If we have the same one again, that's going to be insane. That means start spending money. It sounds like James is like, what? I have Acuna. No.

Under. And I have a Rosaranya. Randy under. I had Randy a Rosarana's under. For some basis? Yeah. That's what we have? Yeah.

That's so funny. Okay. Got to place both those bets. That's real weird. I mean, we got 20 different pages with 100 different things. And Jake and I have stumbled upon the same thing. Randy's never, it's 25 and a half. Randy's stolen more than 25 twice in his career.

And to be honest, he's led the league and caught stealing. twice and last year was damn close to leading league with 10. Like last year he stole 22 and got thrown out 10 times. If I'm cash in the race, like I am advising this guy to stop stealing as much as he is and like let his teammates hit him over or get score runs. I'm not advising him to go chase setting the second most he's ever gotten a season.

So I would take the under on Randy. And then Acuna's, it's just really high. So it's more, it's not like a knock on Acuna. but because where the fuck is it? There might be some been there done that. Yeah, well, it's just because he stole so many last year that they had the over under at searching, searching, searching, searching.

53 and a half is the number of us. Yes, 53 and a half. I think that's just a crazy high number to set it at for him. So I was going to take the under on that. Again, a team that doesn't need that, if they're like in the hunt too, last year, they were pretty much winning so he could just go chase all the milestones he wanted.

He stole 73 last year. But he's only gotten his next highest is 37. I understand the rules changed. But that's a high... So what's when are you taking? Well, if Jake wants Randy, I'll take Ocuna, I guess. 20 bag drop-off is a significant.

I mean, you're banking on injury. Yeah, injury. Any missed time. Any miss time. That gets you in a good spot. And like last year by the end of the year was like a point that like he's chasing a special steals number. Yeah, he was chasing a milestone last year and they were like soundly in first place. And also it was the first year of all the defensive stuff and the MLB pitchers trying to keep runners on and stuff.

And I don't know if we're going to see more people become base dealers. year or we're going to see the pitchers and the first baseman and the catchers hinder the guys that took advantage of the new rules. On the flip side, though, Estuary Ruiz, I wanted him over in this category because his is 49 and a half. He stole like 70-something last year. And what the fuck else you're going to do in Oakland if you're not running every single? Too late to take that, James.

I know. But I'm just letting people know. That is just if he can keep his on base above 300, he's going to steal 70 bags again. A couple notes on my Randy Rosarine a bet that I just placed at the Draf King's sports book. Again, the stolen bases, stealing bases game expanded last year with the new rules and the bigger bases. Randy went down from 32 to 22 in that year. He played 153 games, 151 games. So he played basically a full season.

and Randy is now 29. Father time's a real thing. He's never been great at stealing bases, and his sprint speed went down from, I think it was like 87th percentile to 78th percentile last year. So if that takes another bump down, I don't even know if Randy wants to be stealing bags,

just kind of when he wants to give the team you're playing, the F you. And he will, but yeah, I was shocked when I saw the line was, what was it, 25 and a half? Yeah. So yeah, that's mine. The only thing I'll say about Randy is, one,

Cash is not going to go up to him and tell him anything about baseball because Randy wouldn't listen to him even if he did. And two, kind of what you alluded to with Ronald de Cunia Jr., if Randy pops some more homers this year, and he's looking for like a 30-30 season, you know he's just going to steal regardless if he thinks can get thrown out.

It doesn't matter to him. He's going to go for 30-30. So I looked at the stolen base totals And I just after last year I didn't want to Didn't want to touch any of them Because it's to me still very much Up in the air like what did we do to this game

What was your under Bebs? I under sad Don't like doing this But Mike Trout under 93 and a half RBI's Prove you can stay healthy And also who are you driving in? Hmm I don't want to dwell on it

But like How many RBIs are they have it at? 93 and a half, which like if he plays the full year is attainable, but I also am like, who are you going to drive in? I haven't done it since 2019. I feel like I've chased. I've used Mike Trout, home runs, Mike Trout RBI's under a lot in my years of doing this because health concerns.

They said his lines very high and health concerns. There was a prop bet of milestones and one will Trout hit his 400th home run in the season. and that I was going to use that as my under, but it's 36 home runs. If he's healthy, he's doing that. So it's really just banking on injury and I don't want to be. 32. 32.

Yeah, 32. So I was like, it came out to like, if he plays 120 games, he's going to do that. So I didn't take it. So is there a little bit of the Mike Trout, F show hey type of thing? Like, does he want to come out and say, I'm the guy, remember me?

I mean, I know injuries don't care about that, but we're going to see a little bit added motivation, Mike Trout. I know, you know, Jolly, who believes in his sprinkle game, because we hit Coramur and Cy Young the same year. I think he's been on a whisper Mike Trout MVP campaign because I think his numbers at a crazy place that if he were to play a buck 50, Mike Trout can still put crazy numbers out there. But, yeah, it's going to be an interesting year to see in Anaheim. Like, does Trouty turn it back up or, I don't know, does that whole team sleepwalk?

There's Ron Washington, the man. and here come the halos, babe. I kind of like that, by the way. I do like that. Mickey Moniac and Mike Trout just freaking slapping hands at home plate all year long. Lappen hams.

I think I've found another under I like more. You judge your lock. Save it for your luck. I don't know if I like it that much. Okay. O'Neill Cruz is like listed amongst all these RBI hitters

as if it's the same thing. The Pirates have had one guy break 74 or whatever it is, 73 RBIs in the last couple years. Brian Reynolds and only Brian Reynolds. He might be like at the top of the lineup fast. Yeah, no, Neil Cruz, like that. So that one sticks out like a sore thumb. But I'll keep what I kept.

What are you on that? Sprinkle. It's mentioned. Let's sprinkle. Oh, no, I thought lock is. I think locks for the end. That's the, not in the past, but we can change it for this year.

Either way. I think both play. I'm ready for sprinkle. We're ready for sprinkle. I have two sprinkles. I don't actually love sprinkles in general, like on my like donut or anything like that. It might be in the minority there.

I am going to go with a manager. Oh, wow. Yes, Trekk. Yes. I love that. I just think the same. situation calls for Manager of the Year votes.

Wow. And this is the guy that's already won it three times. He's back in a very familiar place. The story is already writing itself. Bob Melvin for Manager of the Year is at plus 1,500. Like I said, three-time winner of the award. He has the story of him going to San Francisco. go back to the bay. He just got a bunch of weapons at his disposal.

If they make the playoffs this year, which isn't a far out thing to think about, I think he wins manager of the year in the National League. Like, I don't think you can give it to Dave Roberts or Snicker who have these, like, unbelievable teams. Like, I don't think that's how it usually works. If Bob Melvin gets these giants back on board and all of a sudden we're seeing,

them in the playoffs, I think there's a very good chance that he wins his fourth manager of the year award. So go Bowmel, go. You got Chappie, you got Snell there, you got the, you know, like you got a little juice right now. So I'm feeling it. I like him in the uniform, too. He says all the right things. He's a good media guy, which means something. Bob Melvin, manager of the year plus 1,500. Love it, Treve. Love it. You know I love managers. That's so gross. Such a gross thing to bet on. It is a gross thing to bet on. Because who votes for manager of the year?

I think it's the media, right? Because basically at the end of the year, they look at, okay, that team was the best, but were they supposed to be the best? Okay, this team overachieved a little bit. Does a manager have any part of it? But like what you said. If he has the formula for it, right? The media likes you a little bit.

That's an edge. He's got all the pieces to make a manager of the year pie. Like, he just got it just put together, baby. You got kind of shit on last year. It seems like undeservedly so. I love it. First year in a new place. I was having trouble finding a good sprinkle.

And I saw that one. I was like, you know, Bowmell plus 1500. I think he's got. This is the year you get your sprinkle, Trev. I love that. I think Aldi Mar Mall is above Bowmell. Which if that happens, this is like, it's a rigged thing. Like, I'm never betting that again.

Jamelope I'm interested to hear Because I also have two sprinkles So you know Might have to get the voodoo doll out Okay well One is I always do I think I've always done

A longest wing streak Okay I hit it one time Seattle Mariners plus 3,000 And I got it correct Last year I'm pretty sure I did it But I didn't get it right

Last year I did You might have shouted it out Yeah maybe it was a shout out I'm taking the Astro specifically late May to early June run. So there you go. That's going to be the longest win streak of the year by a team. That's plus 900.

So it's even more, it's not even that much of a sprinkle. My other sprinkle, that could be like my real one, I guess, because it's plus 2,200, is Mookie to be the hits leader. Leading off, going to get a ton of that bats, was up there top 10 or 15 last year.

Freddie and Otani. behind him, he's going to get pitches to hit. And if Mookie's healthy and leading off for the Dodgers every game, he might get the most pitches to hit of anyone in baseball. And he's pretty good at hitting baseballs when they're in the zone. So that's my sprinkle. Can't bet against Mookie Bats. Plus 2,200?

Yes. Nice. The Astros have had the longest winning streak a lot of years the last five or six years, but not recently. Okay, I've got the double sprinkle myself. I'll start with plus 1,200, and it's with someone I've sprinkled with before. I'm going back to Corby Burns,

but I am going with MLB Wins Leader. I think wins are a little up in the air. I think that's what we've kind of figured out through the years. But there's obviously a formula with, you know, good team, good pitcher can get you close. Corbyn Burns in the new league. I usually believe in that when it comes to a pitcher, he's coming to a more pitcher-friendly ballpark.

That left field is just insane in Baltimore. And you guys know I love that lineup, and I think they're going to score. So I don't know, could Corbyn's win 18 and have the most wins? Why not? At plus 1,200, I don't see a ton of risks there. He is, you know, he's the fifth highest odds among skies, which kind of says something,

but it's a tough category to predict, so that's why I went there. And then my sprinkle of all sprinkles, plus 7,000. That's all that Jake. That's so old Jake. Torkelson, the lead in home runs. Wrote that one down.

There's a butter knife that, you know, at one point last year, I think he homered 16 homers in the final 43 games or something like that. That's like a 53 home run pace. He's a former 1-1 pick. Again, there's a lot of guys to believe in above Spencer Torkelson between ability and ballpark and everything else.

But it plus seven bills, I don't know. I think crazier things have happened in the sport. So I'll put it into the ether. All right. I'm still searching for locks, I like. Did you give two sprinkles? We're sprinkled guys, Treve. You said you're not a sprinkled guy.

We're built on sprinkles. Spinkles are awesome because you get no credit for being wrong. And you're like, dog, it was a sprinkle. So, like, if you get one of your sprinkles right, you're genius. You don't really get full credit. You get half credit. No, you could, there's a million sprinkles to choose for it. Well, no, he's got two out there, James.

So it cuts the, it cuts the, you know. How does he? Throw another sprinkle out, Treves. I don't want to. You toss out two sprinkles. They're sprinkles. I mean, no one counts sprinkles. You just say, pour some on.

Unless you hit him. Yeah. Then I'm counting it. but Jake's praise gets cut in half. So does Jim's then, if that's your argument. So, you know, you specify. Exactly. That's why you guys are together.

That's why Jim's been looking over at your paper this whole time, stealing your shit. That's not true. Hey. Hey. What are you kids doing? Hey, let me ask you a question. Because we have given our overunders on TPPs, and there was a couple that we said we all were very adamant about.

Should we not give those for the lock? I have one of those as a lock. And we've done that in the past. We've done it. Okay. So I don't, your rule. I don't think it's illegal. I'm searching for another.

That is the one I have right now. But I'm on the same page. We still need Beaver Sprinkle, right? Still need my sprink. Yeah. I was on Torkelson homers. But Sprinkle I'll be sharing today. We just did our Cy Young draft.

This is a category that, I think we find a lot of ourselves sprinkling in every year and get some nice returns on things. One of the bigger omissions in our Sy Young draft, or not bigger, but most commented about, is Grayrod. Jason Rodriguez plus 2,000 to win the A.L. Sy Young. He learned a lot last year. It was pretty dominant down the stretch. A lot of people like him this year, I am among them.

And Terik Scoubel, who I ended up drafting over him at the end. his return was plus 900 you'd actually feel great about the draft but Grayson Rodriguez plus 2,000 is not young. I like it. I like that he went down the AAA last year and figured shit out. Although like in my mind

like do you really ever learn anything at AAA or are you just like so motivated to get back to the big leagues? Because there's such a drastic difference in the way you get treated in the way that your life is. I feel like a lot of times like maybe pitchers can do that

where they, you know, like get in front of some cameras and they do all that stupid stuff that they do. But to me, it's like you get sound on AAA, you're just very much motivated to get back to the biggest. Whether that means your focus is different or you start to work a little, you change, maybe change your routine or something like that. But I like that pick, Beers, because he's obviously he can be very dominant. Went on a great run to end the year. Good team.

Good team. Locke. Locks are brought to you by LinkedIn. I have a fun one for you that's brought to you by LinkedIn. This is a fun one brought to you by LinkedIn. That's not part of any of our categories. Stay tuned. This is huge.

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That's not in the ad rate. And I don't know if they want that. Jim, what were you saying? Dodgers first team to win 10 games is plus like 350 right now, and they already have a win and no one else does. So if you want to turn 10 bucks into 30 bucks, You can just do it. You can still bet that?

That's pretty cool. Yeah, I just did it. They got one. They got one ahead of everyone else. Might be too ahead. And do you think Majorie Baseball is going to let Yamamoto lose his first game? No, they're not. That's just smart.

No. That's just good business. If the ball is fly in the morrow. Yeah. Dude, what was that with that? I don't know. It's just dead. Any ball in the air just died.

I was kind of like mad at Kiki when he, pimp that sack fly, but then I realized that no balls were flying anywhere. Nothing to the warning track today. All right, so for my lock, I was going to go with one we've already given on talking baseball.

We had two teams that we both, or I liked a lot. It was Milwaukee Brewers over 77 and a half wins. It was the, I think James, you might be doing the other one, so I won't say it. I'm not going to go with that. I'm going to change that. I'm actually going to pull

from you earlier in the episode, James. I'm taking Sera Rui's over stolen bases. Oh, okay. I'm stealing that one for me. That's a really good. I did not like think to go there because I was trying to stay away completely from stolen bases.

But 49 and a half, you're right. What else is going on there? This guy's going to run because that's where his value is. 49 and a half just seems really low. And it's at minus 115 so it counts on our lock thing. So I don't know if that's meaning.

No, no, that's fine. I'm glad. I'm happy. That's a good pick right. I mean, he averaged like two or a stolen base every two games or something last year. Something like that. I think every two games, he average a stolen base. And all the spring training is not slowing him down.

I'll tell you that. No. What is he going to get on base. You can do whatever the fuck you want. And then he's also, all the articles are about. I'm always talking with Ricky Henderson about stealing and stuff. So that's, that's my lock. I really, when you said that, I was like, oh, I didn't even.

I think to go there, but that's nice. I'm glad. I'm happy. I still like the Milwaukee Brewers, even though Devin Williams is hurt. I guess it's going to be for like four to six weeks. They have enough in the bullpen. I still think that 77.5 win totals too low for them. They just find ways to win.

But Ruiz will be my lock. I like it. My lock, I got to find the number. I forget what it was. It's the rate. over. We all went and bet it right away. It was like 84 and a half. It was like 84 and a half wins.

Yep. So I know that's boring if you've already listened to that episode, but I mean, I honestly don't know of you can find a better lock than that. Yeah. Thought about that one too. That's the other one I didn't mention. We both, I think on our sheet it might even have been less. Did it go up? I thought it was 83 and a half on a sheet.

Definitely 84 and a half right now when we did the episode. It will be my favorite lock to lose. ever. Yes, win-win for you. So it is a win-win bet, but like, come on. I don't even understand that.

I think it's because no one talks about him anymore. No one cares about him anymore, so they're like, whatever. Hey, how about, and I don't mean to step on your shoes here, Jake. What about, is there a way to bet like over under on pitch clock violations early in the season? I have a theory.

I have a theory. I think that stadium doesn't have a clock in the pitcher's view. If you watch Wandi, he was so. searching a lot. I went back and looked at footage. So I think that's my theory of why we just... Was it was five or something? It was five.

It felt like spring training 2020. All Padres. Yeah. But Wandi's the guy who games the clock. Yeah. Like he pitches at the very end. And you could see him looking... Well, he got one, right?

Or two? Two, I think. Yeah, two. Yeah. Yeah, I like it. I think that would be the safest lock I could put out there. I'll twist some arms a little bit. bit.

Because I, the numbers don't make sense. You know, at the end of the day, you know, betting is a numbers game. And that's normally where I live, analytical guy. And I'll twist the screws and this fan base won't be happy. But I'll take Chicago Cubs to not make the playoffs minus 125. Wow. I just think the central is a crucial. crap shoot.

The Cubs, my whole thing was they, they kind of replaced. And I know they've got some youth that's coming up, and they believe in that, and they should believe in what they're doing, that maybe they'll cash in. But I don't know, Trev, like you said, the Brew crew has run that division, and they always believe in their young talent. Will the Cardinals bounce back?

Will the Reds figure it out? And I guess I was debating pulling this out, because I just knew that Cubs fans would not like that. But I think one team's coming out of the Central, and I don't know it's the Cubs. So I'm going there. Tonight, please remind you before you lock it in. Yeah.

They have counsel. Right. That actually helps. Okay, you did. By the way, he is the leading vote, or percentage-wise, to win manager of the year in the National League. Oh, my God. That's probably a lock.

Yeah. They win one more game than last year, counsel. So I don't know. I thought it was funny that they have this same over-under win total projection as the Cardinals. 84 and a half, the same as the Ray's. The Cardinals that won 71 games last year or whatever. So I don't know.

Cubs Nation, I won't be mad if it's wrong because one team will have to win the Central. and the Cubs are a proud franchise. So if everything goes right there, cool. But I'm just playing the numbers there. And I don't know. I think there's a little bit of, there's more Cubs fans than a lot of other teams in that division

that might be shaking the books a little bit more. Because the Brewers have run that division. I think the Reds have a ton of up-and-coming young talent. And the Cardinals could bounce back. And I think your wild cards are going to be filled out in the east and the west. So math guy. Wow. I don't know where I feel about that one.

I mean, the raise is the lock. I actually betted, but we can't walk over each other anymore. I think it's 50-50, like, and I don't know if I want that for my lock. Good. Okay. Beeps? Yeah, my lock has a potential for if it doesn't happen to hurt a lot. Uh-oh.

But I couldn't believe the numbers on this. There's a series of bets in the Draft Kings website app for, like, combinations of teams making the playoffs. Phillies, Astros, and Yankees to all make playoffs. Plus 160. He's giving us a pluser on the lock. Philly's Astros and Yankees? So Phillies Astros locked.

Done. They're in. So do I want to make money on the Yankees making the playoffs? I think so. They avoided the worst news possible on Cole. Judge and Soto are on the team. I beg of you not to do this. I have another one.

That's scary. What you want, Bebers? You do it. That scares me. And do Baltimore and Texas to make both make playoffs plus 125. But the other one I truly believe in more. Damn. Plus money.

Right. Lock it in, baby. I love the bet. I will tell you, I took one of those last year, and it's a complete sucker bet. It is a complete sucker bet. I think. Thayo thinks the Astros are walking. I think the one I took last year had the Yankees, Mets, and Cardinals.

Not a joke. Nice. So, I don't know. I believe. Things happen. Yeah. And we had, we didn't do well in our locks last year. So it's not like I'd be the first one to miss one.

What was my lock last? Oh, I just wanted you to jinx the Yankees. Yes. Yes. I agree with that. That's why I was, I was scared to do it. Trevor, your lock last year was Mariners make the playoffs. Jimmy's lock was Cardinals win the NL Central

and my lock was Garrett Cole's strikeouts over. It didn't work out. Jake 8. Gosh, dude. We had Cal Raleigh, like, yelling at the front office and the dugout at the end of the year. There's a bet that's minus 170 that I like, but I don't want to bet minus 170 bet.

That's boring. We have a minus 150 limit. Any team to record 23 plus, right? season wins by the end of April. And I think it's a sucker bet because of the early games and the season starts a little earlier. But that's only in the last three years, only one team has done that in the like amount of days.

Like I slid the calendar to coincide with opening day. So no is the right answer. But you don't get good odds. Is that all of them? Yeah. And I got a jet for BT. All right. We did good.

Sometimes I don't, like when I went five for five, I didn't actually place any of those And I got really mad at myself. So I'll go place the ones I truly believe in. Trev, before you jet. My sprinkles. If I don't place my sprinkles, I'll be pissed. I would love to get a quick take from you on Snell.

Again, the timing of it. And I know you guys at baseball today did do a full Snellogram. So go check out Chris Rose and Trevi live. And go check out baseball today. Every day as the season rolls around. How about that? And the only show that I think is comparable to it

is Bloomberg's The Deal. It's a new podcast and video series you're not going to want to miss, hosted by another popular third baseman, Alex Rodriguez. The deal with reporter Jason Kelly from Bloomberg, a bunch of big-time athletes and entertainers and executives, Maria Sharpova, Michael Strahan, Derek Jita. I know Trev, you were throwing your hat in the ring. We'll have our people talk to their people.

deal takes you behind the scenes in the world of sports, media, and entertainment, wins, losses, and lessons learn along the way. Hey, we're all looking for more content. You know, Rod puts himself out there, and you're going to get some entertainment from it. So from Bloomberg Podcasts and Bloomberg Originals, you can listen to the deal on Apple, Spotify, wherever you get your podcast. Find the deal with Alex Rodriguez, Apple Spotify, wherever you get your podcast. So Trev, elevator speech, the Snell contract.

I know there's a lot of moving parts, and you just, just gave Bob Melvin manager of the year. So what do you got? I think it's awesome for the giants who have sneaky had one of the better off seasons in all of baseball. You know, a month ago, we weren't saying that at all. But in the last four weeks, it's been Solair, it's been Chapman, it's been Snell, all on like very reasonable deals.

There's still money to go make improvements. That rotation by the end of the year can be very formidable. And not everybody even has to hit. You have Logan Webb and Blake Snow. you know, winner of the Sall Young, runner up in the Sall Young. Kyle Harrison, like everyone really, really believes this guy. He's shown some greatness on the big league field so far. Then, you know, if Robbie Ray comes back, if Alex Cobb shows anything, like, they have

depth there now in their starting rotation, which they necessarily kind of needed, kick kicks back to the bullpen. I think if this team makes the playoffs, like they have enough good hitters in that lineup where, like, they're not just going to give away a ton of a bat's and you have a good pitching staff. I like their bullpen too. Like I think the San Francisco Giants in the last month have gone from not even in playoff talk to like realistically like being a threat to be a wildcar team.

Like I think they're well in the fold there. So they've done a great job over the last four weeks of completely changing what their, you know, the thought process of I think their fan base and baseball in general thought process on them. Like they're a playoff team now. that's my thoughts. I like your thoughts. And Chris Rose is yelling at me and he goes, tell them to rap.

We have people waiting. Okay. This is the problem with going live. I keep telling them that. Live stinks. Trevor, you can go. For that reason, you can go. You already know my thoughts.

I'll share it with the people. My thought is, like it for the Giants. Don't like it for Snell. Don't like it for Major League Baseball. These deals like stink. Like I just love, I just love.

having, oh, he's going to be there. Bryce Harper with the Phillies. He's there for the rest of his career. He's going to be Philly. Even Manning with San Diego, he's going to be there. And it's just more fun when you have mainstays and teams and cultures and identities. And if we go into the land where we get more of these deals of just hopping around, it becomes way less sticky of a watch.

And for like the dedication that a baseball season is, 162 games over the year, you want to be like these are my guys like I love what the Braves have right now what the Phillies have right now what the Dodgers are going to have for the next couple years I just I just really enjoy that's why I liked the Bobby Witt Jr. deal so much this year because I thought that was a win for the fans win for the player win for the team win for the league so I'm not like really upset by it but just like damn I don't know whose fault it is either it just seems to be the way it fell but I wish he was somewhere for five years. Yeah, I mean, there's It's I'm a, I'm a simple, I'm a simple guy Um Simple Jake

Uh I, who's this contract good for? Not Snell. The Giants, if he pitches well this year and gets him to the post, deep postseason run. Kind of. But then they like don't have him.

Yeah. You know, This is what I said about Bellinger, but you like the Bellinger one. Well, I like the Bellinger. I, I think three years. is different and Bellinger, it's injury. They're both one-year deals. It's injury.

Yeah, but they're both one-year deals. But Belly gets two years of insurance policy. So if Belly's injuries do come back, and he's not the player he was, he got money he earned by being the ball player he was. His risk was injury. For Snell,

he's performed, but people just don't like the way it looks. And maybe there's some agent stuff involved. And I, you know, I wish Trev was here for this part because, I mean, for how the Boris kind of ship went down at the end of this free agency, I don't know. I know he's not a popular man with owners. I could see percentage points tied to that, but people are nervous about how Snell pitches. I think they overplayed their hand a little

bit. But yeah, I think it's bad for Snell. It's bad for the Giants. It's bad for Giants fans. And it's kind of bad for baseball. So that was my like head turn. I was like, Who is this really good for? And yeah, if the Giants win the World Series, Blake Snell is a hero. But outside of that, I don't know. It's when the next CBA comes up, I think there's going to be conversations on how to not have this happened. And I know they're talking free agency window and things like that again.

I don't think the owners are going to touch that. But the only problem is every time the PA. implement something they think is going to stop this. The owners find the twist. The owners just loophole it. And that's where the, you know, we talked, I think we talked a little bit about how the luxury tax kept a lot of the teams out that wanted to be in the draft pick factors for some other teams.

So, yeah. Those are all designed to help the player and they're not. It's kind of a bummer it got there. And, hey, I hope for Giants fans, it can be fun because, you know, So Cy Young winner, Robbie Ray, should come back for them at some point this season. Blake Snell is a Cy Young winner. And Kyle Harrison's the top left-handed pitching prospect in baseball. So if they can pass some knowledge to him, if they can put a season together, that can be fun.

And we've talked a lot about the Giants and missing free agents. And now they had this kind of massive off-season, a massive hodgepodge off-season that I hope it comes together. But yeah, it's just not good for the game. Because like you're saying, it would be great if any team. could be like, all right, Snell for five years. Let's fire it up, you know? Yeah. And he had the offer from the Yankees on the table for 150, 150 million for five years, right?

We think it was somewhere around there. Neighborhood of, I suppose. Which is 30 mil a year for five years. So, yeah. If that's true. If that's true. Then Boris is on a bad stretch. I guess that's what I'm interested to see because he's supposed to have a huge client list next year.

It's supposed to be Alon. There's like four big names for next year. And they were saying like, you know, if Chapman, Snell, they're out there again. They opt out. They're just back in the game again. So I don't know. If there is a boris problem,

we're going to find out in the next offseason. Well, we'll find out with Monty. Right? Still not done. I don't think he's going to want this. Like, dude, he just earned whatever he can earn. Go get you. My advice for Monty,

be go get yourself five years. of the biggest sum you can get. Because I don't know, like look at Kikel. I know he was trending down and stuff, but they have a bad year here, man. Right. They're out. Right.

They're out that big $100 million contract. So if you can go get 100 guaranteed over four years, go get that. Because once you take this and a two-year deal and you're going to get, you know, whatever, like your time as a, a player, yeah, that's the other thing. It's like your, your opportunities get shallower. And that's where, I guess that's my, when the Bellinger comparison, this was, this was

Belly's first good year since 2019. And there was some significant injury involved in that. So that's where, uh, having that extra year of an insurance policy and a little buffer if it doesn't click. But you say the same thing for Snell. The first year that he would earn big money since 2018. I mean, the 120 innings pitch seasons aren't earning you. I mean, they got Marcus Stroman a nice two-year deal, and Stroman's older and has less of a resume. And like, wait, didn't they sign similar deals? I mean, yeah, but Stroman's older and doesn't have as good of a resume.

It's much less per year. And less per year. It's a straight two-year deal. But Stroman's more consistent. I think that's the problem with Snell is he's not look at snow's stat page Snell's not consistent Jake yes he is no he's not I mean the innings and the like ERA it's it's it's it's one ERA four ERA three ERA four ERA three or ERA two ERA that's not consistent four two is your worst case that's a big difference in price point

Yeah, but that should be a great thing. That should be a win for a team. Well, I mean, what pitcher... What was Nola's ERA last year? Like, you're paying for innings in that case, but Snell's never had the crazy injury. He's never had a bad season. He's just had elite seasons,

and for some reason, that gets held against them. The one season for Snell, and there's degrees of consistency. So, like, I've been caught in this debate, both within myself and on this. On Twitter and the innings and the results are not consistent. The one season that's like a bad season, like below average was the first year on a new team, new division,

all that. And the second half of that year he was awesome. There's really just one half that was bad. Within that same year, he was awesome. Innings are huge. Nola is going to average you 180 innings floor. That means that's so valuable because you have to get, what, 14,000 innings, whatever the saying is a year?

So if Snell's more, March. You don't give you a 20, then you have to get more. We've done this before. Yeah, but Noah's also a productive pitcher. Some years. More earnings gives you more margin for error. Nola's the R.A. the past three seasons.

He's got two seasons in the high fours. Yeah. So does snow, right? No. Four twos is the worst. Four two, four two? Not in past three years. Four two is the worst.

It was the worst in the past three. Yep. Yeah, I don't know. Bad for baseball. His Reagency was always like a... This landed in a weird place even before it got super weird. He was always in a fascinating spot. And the way the market shook out was the worst it could have gone.

Very weird the whole way. He hops out and joins that crew next year, it's going to be tougher for him. Because he becomes, instead of the top starter, he becomes not. You won't have the qualifying offer. That's the only spin. That's the spin. Yeah, that is nice. So, qualifying offer, if it's a good year again.

But Freed and Burns are going to get more than him. Yeah. So, yeah. Weird. All right, still got Monty to go. See what that does. Yeah. I think Boris, his biggest points this off season,

if you were to toss some fell off allegations out there, nobody thought Jung-Hoo Lee was getting that contract. He got him that one. But same team. Same team. He just had a field day with the Giants this year. Chapman, too. Chapman, too, right?

Yeah. Jeez, that's weird. Or sad. I don't know what that is, but that's something. I definitely noticed it. I don't know. Enjoy the rest of the sole opening day series. Yamamoto.

Tomorrow, yeah.