Talkin' Baseball (MLB Podcast) - Buying or Selling 2026 MLB Trends!

Episode Date: January 7, 2026

Use our code for 10% off your next SeatGeek order*: https://seatgeek.onelink.me/RrnK/TALKIN2026. Sponsored by SeatGeek. *Restrictions apply. Max $20 discountDownload the DraftKings Sportsbook app and ...use promo code JMBASEBALL Coach Trev and Talkin Jake discuss the popular trends from 2025 and if they'll carry over to 2026 like, strikeout percentage being down, more stolen bases by slower players, what pitch will be out in 2026 and more! 0:00 Intro4:00 Hitting trend in 20259:20 Teams are not defending well12:30 Death of MLB’s three true outcomes23:10 Prime analytics era is no more32:44 two strike approach40:40 Baserunning1:00:10 Pitching trends1:09:40 Next Free Agent to sign Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:01 Hello and welcome to Talking Baseball. We are going through some of the trends from last year. What are we going to see more of this year? Homer, strikeouts, contact hitting. And of course, happy Show Hey, Otani Day to everyone. One-seven. Oh, I had no idea what you were talking about. Brewster Gratterol.
Starting point is 00:00:22 I don't know how to do show-hays. Show-head. Hello and welcome to Talking Baseball presented to you by Seatgeek. I am Jake Storelli. That is Trevor Fluf. Rob Serocco is producing. Dalton Feely's in the lab. Getting some notes and information together.
Starting point is 00:00:42 I can't promise you there won't be a Johnboy appearance because that's what a lot of the pre-show has been between Civil War, baseball, everything under the sun. Cilibules got debated for a while this morning. And I didn't like where we landed. I'll be honest on that. So we'll see if that comes up again. Yeah, like I said, we're going to talk.
Starting point is 00:01:02 We got into some Trent. Coach Trev. kind of sparked this of, you know, baseball is an always evolving sport. And some of the stuff we saw last year, what do we think we're going to see this year, more or less of it, along with, I don't know, maybe some athletics jokes at the end because their name's copyrighted and we'll see what else comes up. Sam Fold got texted this morning. Trevor Plouffe, how are you?
Starting point is 00:01:27 Still nothing from Sam Fold. Okay. I'm doing great, coach. Yeah, this is a, I'll tell you where the idea for the episode got, sparked from. Did you say spark already? No. That's three sparks, four sparks.
Starting point is 00:01:41 Five. You can just keep going. You could. Good. Shout out group chat. The only podcast I listen to. They do a winners and losers and predictions app. I was listening to it the other day.
Starting point is 00:01:55 And so we should do that. And then it kind of turned into, all right, let's talk about what happened last year. And then what we think's going to happen in 2026. No, this will not be like our famed. episode. Oh, boy. Whoa, we got to dig that up one day. No, we don't. Yes. Yes. We need like a three episodes. That 6666 was awesome. Real special. But this one will be, I think, I think a lot of it
Starting point is 00:02:23 is going to be us just kind of not spitballing, but giving our interpretations of what we see happening on the field. And I have some things I want to talk. about, you know, Saris will be mentioned. Yes. But let's, you know, this is going to be some really talking baseball type stuff today, people. So if you're into that, buckle up. Yuckin ball, Treff. It's kind of what this show was built on. And I know, I know that gets most of the people rowdy. And Trev, the good news is, I know this will surprise you because we get lost in Bitcoin a lot. We get lost in haikus. We get lost in everything. Jamie Lee Curtis, we talked about her a lot before the program.
Starting point is 00:03:07 I think a lot of people come here for the baseball talk. I think we might have a bad read on it. Although, Trev, I do think maybe Wednesday ups this year for the final 10 minutes we start our new Jake and Trev, like life advice type show or whatever it is. Love that idea. Yeah. Right? If you made it this far, here you go.
Starting point is 00:03:26 We start sneaking that in for the people. Let's, sorry, everyone, we're going to start talking baseball. And yeah, we talked about buying or selling some trends. I don't know if we need that for a title because people love a goodbye sell segment. But yeah, we've got from hitting to base running, you know, every year there's a new pitch we hear about. Remember the kick change last spring training? Excited to see what everyone got in the lab with this year. We'll save the pitchers for a little bit because that's normally the thing that gets us the rowdiest.
Starting point is 00:04:00 Not talking to Les. Trev, let's start with the hitting, because that's what we know. And kind of the hottest topic in the sport, I don't know if it was the hottest topic in the sport last year, but with what Toronto did, hitting their way in the postseason, and a different approach and noticeably a different approach. It was also our go-root for the Milwaukee Brewers last year, which a little bit more on brand for just Milwaukee's style of play. But I didn't realize some of these league-wide.
Starting point is 00:04:31 strikeout numbers, strikeout percentages continuing to shrink. League-wide strikeout rates fell from 8.26 per team game to 8.26 per team game. The lowest since 2017. So it clearly feels like that there was a change in approach, whether it was a couple teams that changed that number. And again, I quote brother Jeff on it because I was searching for this phrase and he's the one that followed it, Jeff Passon, if you guys know him, I'll send him a text. If pitchers get rewarded for strikeouts, why have we stopped punishing hitters for strikeouts? And it was like, damn, yep. And Toronto's approach that was noticeable during the postseason. So coach, I guess where do you start with that?
Starting point is 00:05:22 Whenever you say brother Jeff, I had a guy named brother Tony who was a. a teacher at my high school. Like, you know, before you become a priest, you're a brother. And he was part of the Skoll and Bones Club. And one day he just took off. We were having a conversation, literally got a call, took off, never saw him again. I don't know what's going on. I swear to God.
Starting point is 00:05:42 That's a story for a different time, baby. Okay. Here, this is, this one's interesting to me. So the strikeout numbers, they shrunk. And obviously, they're still high from years past, from 1970 or whatever, you know, like, they're still up. but I think that's a byproduct of pitchers just being as good as they are and a little continuation of the fact that we're valuing Slug maybe more than than ever in the game.
Starting point is 00:06:07 But I think that's where baseball, like true baseball people have kind of like won a little bit against maybe some of the front office guys, I think. Because here's the thing about baseball players. To get to the big leagues, You don't get to the big leagues because you're the biggest, the strongest can manipulate your body for power. Those are pluses. And those can be top. Okay.
Starting point is 00:06:33 Those things, being able to put your body in a position to maximize your power potential can be top. That's just swing mechanics. Okay. the things the things that baseball players have specifically hitters that you can't teach is is god-given hand-eye coordination like bat-to-ball skills guys that make it to the big leagues as hitters have just incredible hand-eye coordination and so you can't teach that i don't care i mean you might be able to hone it refine it a little bit but that is something that the guys just have okay so if you're a hitter and and people start to kind of take that away from you it starts to
Starting point is 00:07:19 wear on you a little bit mentally i think we've we've gone we've gone the other way with that because pitchers now have become so good and so proficient at striking out hitters are saying well look if i if i if i'm going up there and i'm trying to hit extra base hits and i'm getting rid of a two strike approach and i'm not spreading out i'm not shortening up Like it's it becomes difficult to use my God-given ability. So let me let me do that. It doesn't have to be all the time. It doesn't have to be every single person.
Starting point is 00:07:50 I believe that we're seeing more and more, you know, teams trying to balance their lineups out with what we have our guys that we want to slug. We want doubles in the gap. We want homers. But we also have to have some quote unquote like piranhas around them, guys that are going to give the pitchers fits. Because that that's that's what it's. does too. There's a byproduct that put in the ball in play. There's so many things that happen because you put the ball in play. Pitchers, pitch count gets put up because you're
Starting point is 00:08:20 fouling balls off. Okay. You're not, you know, a strikeout on three pitches, that's nothing for a pitcher, okay? And I know I know strikeouts will add up to a pitch count as well, but I'm talking about like stressful pitches. I think that's something that we've gotten to as well. So it's just mentally frustrating for guys and talk to any pitcher. A guy that spoils a pitcher's pitch, that spoils a strikeout pitch that gets the bat on it, that fouls it off. You know, it just gets in their head. So you start to have a little bit of that mentality. And I think a lot of, you know, I'll call them life for baseball guys.
Starting point is 00:08:56 Like that's what everyone's been saying for, I don't know, how the last five years. Like, you still need to have. And I've said this many times of show, a couple clubs in the bag. You can't just have the driver out all the time. Like that does, that's not how it works. There are times where you can. And all you've got to do, you're feeling great in the bucks. You've got to step in there and just take your big hack.
Starting point is 00:09:17 But there are times where you don't have it, coach. I'm telling you right now, there are times where you do not have it. You feel like you never played the game ever. And in those times you rely and you go back on the God-given ability to just put the bat on the ball. Another thing, another reason why I think we're seeing this is, and this got exposed a little bit when you're watching the Blue Jays in the postseason. What do we always say about defenses now in the big leagues? Not as good? Not as good.
Starting point is 00:09:46 Everyone's playing out of position. Hey, this guy hits. Put him at second base. Yeah, fine, no big deal. Yeah, put him at first. Teams have not defended well. The teams that do, like they make it far in the regular season, make it far in the postseason.
Starting point is 00:10:01 But by and large, in the big leagues, I think defense has also gone down. So why aren't we trying to put more balls in play? The shift is away. You can't completely shift on batters. I think that was also why we started to see the three true outcome era because guys are like, dude, I'm hitting the ball hard, but it's right at the second baseman who's playing in right field. It's ridiculous.
Starting point is 00:10:27 So I think that sparked it as well. So all these rule changes, all these things, all these thought processes have went into this. And I think that's what we're seeing in the game. And I do think you're talking about like trends, predictions. I think I think strikeouts continue to shrink because I think teams are seeing the value in putting the ball and play. Now, if all of a sudden defenses come back and all of a sudden, that becomes more of a focal point of the game,
Starting point is 00:10:54 then maybe we see it go the other way. But I think going into 2026 will continue to see it. Yeah, I just think we wander too far away. And listeners of the show know that every now and then, you know, during the season, you and I are saying like, all right, let's go get the analytics guys. And obviously there's some joke in our tenor when we say that. In other ways, there's not.
Starting point is 00:11:16 And I think in all sports, we've seen analytics come in, which I reference this twice a year. I think I'm pretty sure it was Bruce Bochy who said, you know, he's like back in the day, we just called analytic stats. That like stats and information, you use it for the better. And you talk about your approach at the plate. If you knew that a pitcher through a pitch, you know, 40% of the table, time like you would you'd hone in on that pitch otherwise that could be tough for you um that when we got all of this data and basically what the data told all the people in the front office was
Starting point is 00:11:50 how how many times in the an article that dalton put in here that maybe you guys should go check out it's from usa today um and glaber from uh Gabe Gabe Lackes Lax I don't know how to L-A-C-U-E-S um so that's Is that French? Uh-huh. So my apologies to Gabe. Just say La Cue. La Cue.
Starting point is 00:12:13 That's not right. Gabe La Cue? There he is. Handsome. Maybe he's Locke. Glaver Torres is interviewed in this. Ryan. Put a J in front of that and you call Jock.
Starting point is 00:12:24 Jocks. Lachs. Gabe Lacks. Gabe hates us. Gabe hates us. That the pinnacle of kind of all of this was the 2019 season, strikeouts are up, three true outcomes. Also, it was a Jews ball year, which also may have set back baseball a couple more years,
Starting point is 00:12:47 if you really think about it, Glaber, who's featured in this article, who Glaber Torres has some of the best hands of a hitter. I don't know if I've ever seen, I guess, in a way, like, I don't know. That Glabors, the beauty of Glabor-Torres is, man, even when that nasty reliever comes in and they're 100 with a wipeout 91 slider, Glaber can adjust mid-pitch. And that's kind of what you're talking about, Trev. Like, your God-given abilities.
Starting point is 00:13:16 A lot of guys that end up on the field have different talents that I don't have, that a lot of people do not have. But those are your talents. When I watched you in the Joe Mauer celebrity softball home-run derby, I couldn't believe the power you had. That was nuts, Trev.
Starting point is 00:13:33 Hitting softballs into the upper deck that blew my fucking mind. I don't have that. That players need to lean into their ability that around that 2019 time, when analytics are full tilt and people are processing what works for them, basically the result came back to if you hit a home run, that's the best thing in the sport. That's the best thing you can do.
Starting point is 00:13:54 So why don't we try to do that? Well, that is so hard to do, especially without juice balls, especially with how pitchers are development, that between that and the T-cup shifts that were going on, The sport hit a really weird spot. And yes, we're coming out of it. And it's also like be who you are as a player. And I want you to roll for a little bit
Starting point is 00:14:15 because the other part of my speech coming up just has to do with common sense in baseball that we can get to in a minute. But I was rolling there. No, I mean, look, this is, I think I want to talk a little bit more about like the player hitter psyche because I do think that does get affected by strikeouts. and hitters really want to do, like, let's be honest here,
Starting point is 00:14:40 they want to do what gets them paid. Right. Like you are in this. It's a finite window. You want to help your team win. But if their team is saying, go do this, which teams were saying, go slug. And that we're paying big bucks. That's what you're going to do.
Starting point is 00:14:55 But not everyone's built for that, Jake. Right. Not everyone is built for slug. It's just it's not part of their game. I want to see more even roster construct. I do want to see the fast guy that puts the ball in play and causes havoc not only on the base pass, but like puts the defense on their toes. Again, we're just not seeing great defense being played. Sure, there are some guys out there, PCA.
Starting point is 00:15:20 How about Tommy Fam coming out of nowhere saying we need to implement wind and sunlight into our outs above average and DRS and defensive metrics? Love that for Tommy Fam. Makes a lot of sense. We're seeing some great defensive players. but overall in the game, we watch the games, Jake. Sometimes the defense is horrible. Right.
Starting point is 00:15:39 And the pressure, you know, makes that even more. Like, if you know the guy's getting to put the ball and play, it's a gotta be on my toes, got to be ready to go. And especially if the guys fast.
Starting point is 00:15:50 So, like, I think we need to see more well-balanced rosters. But again, the strikeout, if, if you're a guy that you know, it's like,
Starting point is 00:15:56 dude, I'm like, if I sell out and I'm, I'm trying to slug, I might have like 15 homers. I might like, I might hit like 25 doubles. Like that's not my game.
Starting point is 00:16:08 And like you're trying to make it your game. I mean, I guarantee that era ruined some guys that would be very, very valuable baseball players in today's game or any, any era if they were just said, if organizations just said,
Starting point is 00:16:26 yourself, this is why we draft you. Oh, you're fast. You can put the ball in play. Like go do that. I want more of that. If you're a twins fan, How many are you listening right now? Maybe a lot.
Starting point is 00:16:37 Comment below. Comment below. Shout out twins. Derek Shelton. If you listen to my broadcast, I'm always talking about like, hey, can we squeezing a bun here? And it's not because I think it's like, you know, the best play, but I think at times it's the most opportune play where you can catch a defense sleeping.
Starting point is 00:16:56 I see the third basement what he's doing. He's way back. Like these things like, like I think we've seen small ball. to come back into the game. But I think we're going to continue to see it more and more. We're going to have our sluggers. We're going to have our speed guys. We're going to have our contact guys.
Starting point is 00:17:14 It's just, it's going to happen because what we're going to get into in a few minutes is base running is totally changed because of some new rules that have been implemented. So I think the fact that you're putting the ball and play with guys on base, trying to get on base more than ever, I think that's always been a thing. Like on-base percentage and maybe the most important staff, especially in today's game.
Starting point is 00:17:37 I understand, hey, just like every single major sport, we're raining three balls down. Three balls and under the basket, easy shots in basketball. That's what it's become. The NFL obviously has become a passing league because it's easier to score that way. I understand that.
Starting point is 00:17:54 Baseball tried to do it with homers. The problem with baseball is different than those other sports, man. You got a guy who's going to win so often controlling all the variables against you. It's not like the ball's on a T and you say, okay, yeah, I'm going to try to hit this out of the park. And so it hit a single. That's just not the game. So, like, again, you just have to, I'm rambling a little bit. But you have to, you have to understand what kind of roster you have, understand what kind of roster you want to have and then go do it that way.
Starting point is 00:18:27 Because we can't have everybody as clones. It doesn't work that way. I think we keep rolling, Trev, and it's all brought to us by Seat Geek, because we're going to be in the stands again. I don't know if we're going to talk about this. One of Dalton's trends on the sheet was that the seats are getting more packed every year. Whoops. How about you, baseball? And Seat Geek, I know we're in the offseason, but baseball will come back, people.
Starting point is 00:18:51 And it's going to be here quick. It happens quick. But for now, maybe go check out some NFL. There's a couple more college football games. It's getting thin. NBA World Cup this summer. Wherever there's a seat, you'll want to go to the geeks of seats, and that is Seat Geek.
Starting point is 00:19:08 35 million downloads. I think we just pumped that number up. Hello. Number one rated ticketing app. And we have a code for you guys. Talking 2026, 10% off your next set of tickets at Seatkeek, 10% off any tickets with promo code, Talk in 2026.
Starting point is 00:19:24 Click the link in the description, download the app, have the code automatically added to your account so you can use it later. I want to continue on the contact real quick. You mentioned the article. There are some really cool quotes in there from Toro Lavelle. This one's from Craig Counsel talking about if he thinks that we've hit the bottom and we're correcting towards more contact.
Starting point is 00:19:47 And I think this is an interesting insight. He says it's in the process of swinging back. I think we've given pitchers a ton of credit for improving. It was a conversation four or five years ago that pitcher's velocity has improved. and sure it did I think hitters now have calibrated themselves to that. That's the quote. And here this is the last end of it.
Starting point is 00:20:10 And training them better, that's improved contact. And here's what I want to get into. He says, and probably stop giving it bats to people who can't make contact. So decision makers had to adjust a little bit too. This is a guy who comes from Milwaukee, David Stearns, who thinks he's the smartest guy in the game.
Starting point is 00:20:28 He's talking about we're not giving it bans the guys who strike out a ton. Like, it's, it just makes sense. Right. Like, when we, when we're in that era and we're saying, hey, man, go up there. Three true outcome, whatever it is. It didn't make sense, but we tried to make it make sense. This is baseball.
Starting point is 00:20:47 And I'm happy we're going that way. And I, I guess call me out if this is too basic. One, you went, you went all sports on me with analytics, which I was wondering if I was going to get there. And like, I, I think this is just a, opinion. Basketball is in a crazy spot. Like the turning down layups for threes and like what that brand of basketball has turned into. The Celtics can basically be good any year. Hey, shout out to Jalen Brown performing even better than anyone thought without Tatum on the court. But part of the
Starting point is 00:21:17 Celtics key is like the three-point shot. If you make threes, you're going to win the game that basketball has ended up in a really weird area that I think they need to kind of bounce back from analytics a little bit. Football, it's funny, football has always had the machissimo side to it, that, hey, we got big hogs up front, we got to run the ball. You're right.
Starting point is 00:21:39 There's a lot of passing analytics that are like, if you're good at it, do that more. But I think that's led to a good natural balance in football a little bit that's had its ebbs and flows. Baseball is coming back. And, dude, we've, baseball's been played for over 100 years, whatever the actual year is on it.
Starting point is 00:21:59 And for me, I go back to, I go back to what do you not want to see from your opponent? And I never want to see a balanced lineup on the other side. I never want to see guys with different approaches. And like, I think one of the biggest things that we saw, especially with the Blue Jays in the postseason, with the Brewers during the season, if you have runners in scoring position,
Starting point is 00:22:26 and I know like those numbers, you know, in a certain year, there's a smaller sample size that if you're an MLB guy, you might have 50 at bats with runners in scoring position. And, you know, as we know with a smaller sample size, whoever you're facing, or whenever those situations happen, good luck, bad luck, whatever it is, that those numbers might not always be there. But I'll tell you what, man. And I guess I won't point any fingers at individual players.
Starting point is 00:22:52 But if I've got, maybe I will, because I love Juncarlo Stanton. what he has done in some Yankees post seasons will always make him a legend for me. And Craig Counsel quotes this guy in the article, there's something to having Nico Horner up in that spot in Big G. Like, depending what pitcher is on the mound, depending the full situation, like those are obviously very different hitters. And I think during the prime analytic error, error, ooh, look at that. during the prime analytics era,
Starting point is 00:23:28 I think it was like, no-brainer, you want Giancarlo Stan. He might hit in a home run. He might, it might be a three-run homer, the game's over. Well, if the reliever comes in and they have a 35% strikeout rate and Stanton struggles against them, like, you know who I might want to see? Nico Horner, who's basically guaranteed to put the ball in play.
Starting point is 00:23:50 And I just think with all the numbers that we have, we've just strayed way too far from and again this sounds like meathead baseball guy like there's two guys there's a pitcher and a hitter in that at bat and in that moment and I know you can't fully plan on who's going to be in that spot but like if you have the same guy
Starting point is 00:24:14 if you have the same three true outcome guy it just makes it for the easier for the other team to play you that you need balance you need speed you need all of the attributes and I think we also highlighted in this World Series that are in the postseason, everything gets magnified, whether it's, oh, you've got a slow guy on first base, the double, the difference between having a slow guy on first base
Starting point is 00:24:38 and the double play ball might be in play compared to having a fast guy on first base and they might steal second. Think about what that does to a pitcher. A pitcher standing on the mound and is like, ooh, if I get a grounder here, we're twisting it, compared to if that guy, I steal second, they might score a run.
Starting point is 00:24:57 You can't measure it. You never will be. And it's everything. It's the whole game. If it's a pitcher's job to disrupt timing on a hitter, it's the hitter's job to elicit pressure on a defense, an offense's job to elicit pressure on a defense. You can't talk about enough of what you just said.
Starting point is 00:25:21 Like if you're in the field and you got a strike out guy up, Like you're just relaxed or a slow guy in first base. You don't have to worry about who's getting to the bag. I got a peek here to see if he's running or not. You know, the catcher sets up differently. Like so many things come into play. Probably throws different pitches. It all comes down to, yeah, like how comfortable can you be on defense
Starting point is 00:25:45 when you have the speed at the play and speed on the base? It's just non-existent. And I do, I, maybe we'll move on after this, but ask any hitter, ask any hitter. There are times you get into a two-strike approach and you feel like you're barely even swinging, you still hit the shit out of the ball. I mean, so many times in my career,
Starting point is 00:26:09 have I done this or talked to guys who said, man, I was just trying to put the barrel on the ball. And all of a sudden you hit one, 420 feet, 420 shout out, didn't mean to do that. It's true, though. Ask any hitter. there are times man you spread out choke up whatever it is whatever your two strike approach is maybe just trying to go back up the middle use a big part of the field and you're like damn i didn't
Starting point is 00:26:30 barely even swung right there and you hit you you hit the crap out of the ball i think that's another reason why we're seeing you know contact up okay a couple things we're we're so dialed in on biomechanics and like how to create power uh you know everyone using force plates understanding you know just how to generate as much power as possible now. So we already have guys doing that. And you don't, it doesn't, there are different ways to do it now than I think we had 10, 15 years ago. It doesn't have to be this big motion like people used to think it was. Big leg kick, you know, big, you know, bringing your back so much. Like there are guys now. I mean, you watch any hitting coach, you know, teacher man, judge's guy gets a lot of crap.
Starting point is 00:27:22 There are a lot of things he says that make a ton of sense. Okay. You can preset your coil. It's all about what he teaches, I'm getting a little sidebar here. What he teaches is being able to do all that while giving yourself time to make a swing decision, which is what I talk about all the time. If you give yourself a little bit extra time in your decision phase, like that means that makes all the difference in the world. The split second extra for you to decide, hey, ball or strike, swing or not, that's the
Starting point is 00:27:52 difference in feeling great in having a 330 month, 400 month, or if you don't and you're a half second too soon and you don't have that recognition phase, that's when you struggle for a month. So like guys can get smaller, give themselves more time with still create power. And I think you realize that. If you really, if guys ever really just said, hey, man, I'm going to spread out a little bit. I'm going to just try to put the ball in play. I think they'd be shocked at how hard you still hit the ball. Shocked.
Starting point is 00:28:21 Well, that's, and you have, wait, you have to do that when guys have the stuff that they have now in today's game. Pitchers are constantly, I mean, shit, creating new pitches, okay? And they have all these different, like we're going to talk about later in the show possibly how that's a pitcher trend. How their repertoires are getting larger. They want more, they want a cutter, they want a sinker, they want a four seam. They want a sweeper, they want a slider, they want a curber, possibly a splitter. like they're trying to up those pitches the amount of pitches that they throw so for a hitter it's like well i mean how do i combat that i got to get a little i got to get a little shorter the ball
Starting point is 00:29:00 because if i'm taking a big hack of that chances are it's going to miss my barrel so all these things come into play i like where the game is uh i think we've done a really good job of kind of getting back to baseball so i i had one more hitting thing before we get to some running some pitching. Because again, this is just a kind of Joe generic baseball guy, Jake generic baseball guy, if you will. Why have we gotten so far away from when there's a guy with a two-strike approach, you just notice it.
Starting point is 00:29:37 Like Cody Bellinger, who's currently a free agent, but I get to watch a ton of him on the Yankees last year. Cody Bellinger with two strikes has a very clearly different approach. I found it very enjoyable. It works for him. And again, you have to have a skill set to do that. And the way Cody can actually move his body when he swings and some of the pitches he fouls off, it's very impressive.
Starting point is 00:29:58 I guess, Trev, for me, it feels like we've wandered so far away from like, hey, 3-1, 2-0 count. Take that big old biomechanical A-swing. Sit one pitch. If you get it, run into it. And that might get you out of the slump. Or if you swing through it, you were sitting fastball, they threw a slider. Okay, it's 2-1.
Starting point is 00:30:19 You're fine. And then on the other side of that, with two strikes, you see guys that don't, that they have their approach. And again, I don't know if it's analytics. And I don't know, again, there's hand-up. Sometimes it's just easy to be on the couch and be like, oh, you couldn't file that one off, kid?
Starting point is 00:30:41 It's a really tough sport. Like, you're going to strike out a lot. I guess is how much of that is just approach and how much of that is a conversation between the team or the players or I don't know. And we can get into a really broad discussion on like hitting and where it's gone because a lot of a lot of guys now, I mean, they come up and it's similar to a lot of different sports. It's a showcase type sport in the amateur ranks where it's like, well, okay. I want to be able to have this exit velo and, you know, they understand.
Starting point is 00:31:19 that they need to put up numbers, whether it's in a freaking controlled environment like a cage or some sort of tournament that they're in. I think a lot of guys start to focus on these numbers that maybe they're getting evaluated on instead of just truly like, you know, skill baseball-wise and putting the bat to the ball. So I think that that comes into play. But again, if I'm a hitting coach, and you know, I dabble in that time of time, the internet's hitting coach. I would teach a two-strike approach not only for two strikes for like a hole of bets. There are times where I'm going to look at you and say, hey, man, you don't got it right now.
Starting point is 00:32:04 Like you don't. Your timing isn't there. Your mentals aren't there. Like, let's spread out a little bit. Let's just try to put the ball on the bat. The bat on the ball, excuse me. Even that. Like, people need to hear that, Jake.
Starting point is 00:32:18 And like if I if when I was struggling, if my coach was like, hey man, like you kind of stink right now. Like let's just shorten up and just really try to use the big part of the field. It would help me. You know, you try not to, you try not to do that in your head. You're like, I can get out of this. I can do this. But you need to hear that. If I was a hitting coach in the bigs, I promise you I would go to guys all throughout the year.
Starting point is 00:32:40 Every single person in my lineup. And I would say, hey, man, today's the day. You need a two strike approach the entire time. Can I derail you even a little more? because I guess, and this is something, the John Bino, we were talking about this before the show, he has some frustration with the Yankees shifts that he might be dealing with. I think we've asked the PR guy for a meeting with the Yankees,
Starting point is 00:33:04 which just means we've gone too far. So maybe we just need to pull the plug on this whole thing. It's been a great run. Jimmy just dunks on them. That could get ugly. Do I need to be in there? Okay. I guess the thing is
Starting point is 00:33:19 And this starts leading us to infield shifts a little bit Because teams are still shifting If you're a lefty pull The shortstop stands as close as they can A second base The third baseman comes over And that's just the adjusted lefty shift now Let's say you're in a funk to a degree
Starting point is 00:33:36 Or even if you're not Let's say the pitcher coming in Lucas Erseg is who came to mind for me first 99 sinker with a ton of run And you're a lefty Okay, this is why I'm asking it because you started shaking your head, no. Is there not a concept of just like,
Starting point is 00:33:55 hey, if I see a fastball away, why don't I just kind of flick the barrel that way? It's not that easy. Okay. Yeah, yeah, yeah. This is why I'm asking. I get the sentiment, I understand it, and there are guys that can do that.
Starting point is 00:34:10 There's no doubt. There are guys that can do it. Louisa Rice, you can do that. Joe Maurer, you can do that. There are guys that can 100% look at the shift and say, I'm going to put the ball right there, especially if they get the pitch they're looking for. I think it's too difficult to do that.
Starting point is 00:34:25 And I actually don't, I feel like if you're trying to hit the ball in a specific space, unless it's like a hit and run, whatever, in a hit and run, you're literally giving yourself up, you're trying to. I don't want that.
Starting point is 00:34:39 I think that's taking the bat out of your hands, for the most part. Now, a two-strike approach does not do that. I don't think that takes the bat out of your hands. It just makes it, more you're trying to see the ball a little bit longer and you're trying to be a little bit more direct to the ball which hey guess what if you do that every single time you're a pretty damn good hitter so i'm i'm all about that trying to place the ball and you give a bad example to be
Starting point is 00:35:02 honest with you a guy throwing 99 out on that now if we have a guy a thumber up there a guy that throws low nines uh but he elicits a lot of soft contact to your pool side so you're you're shifted that way, then maybe, okay, I'm going to back off the plate a little bit without them noticing. I'm going to keep my hands closer to my body and then maybe I'll try to shoot it. Yes. There are certain guys you can try to shoot, but the guy that you're saying, 99, no. Okay. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:35:30 Okay. Because, yeah, in my head, and again, this is where I'm trying to wrap my brain around this conversation. Like, for me, and again, this is a little bit of a unique example, but the left side of the field is much more available. Essentially, there's a third baseman over there guarding the hole. Yeah. Could be the name of this show.
Starting point is 00:35:55 That, I don't know. Like, it just feels like, again, this is where it ties back to originally. Everyone has a different skill set and all of that. But it feels like, okay, he's going to throw, I'm going to get an Erseg fastball this at bat. It's going to be running away for me. if I can get my barrel on it and stay kind of through the ball, I have a better chance over there against Lucas Urseg than I normally would.
Starting point is 00:36:22 Like, I don't know. I guess, again, that's what I'm trying to process. If you're a guy that can do it, you can do it. I think Vinny P.R. I've seen him do it. He's a shooter. Royal Spring Training, Day 1, Erseg versus Pasquantino. Also, if you hear my broadcast, me and Justin Orno,
Starting point is 00:36:38 love the use of term shooter. Like, sometimes you need to shoot the ball. And again, that's, I think that is. is what you're talking about, kind of going the other way, finding the hole. There's that Vinny P doing it. Let's see this again. Trev, okay, here's Vinny, left on left. See, I don't think he was trying to do that right there.
Starting point is 00:36:56 92 down the dick. He was just looking at the barrel. That was a good swing. Yeah, look, we said a lot, and we've kind of rambled on about this, but I kind of like it, all to say that I do believe, so, predicting trends for 2026. I think we'll continue to see contact rates rise. I think we'll I think we'll continue to see strikeout rates fall by design because I do think teams are now looking at some of the more successful teams in baseball like the Blue Jays, like the Cubs, where
Starting point is 00:37:31 more contact oriented to have a more balanced lineup have success. So I'm, we're going to see more and more of that. We're not going to see teams full of slug. It's just not, it's just, It doesn't lend itself to the game right now because how good the pitchers are. And that's, I think that's kind of the point. And you talked about player skill set and all of that stuff that, because, you know, people could point it, they're like, Dodgers were in the middle of the packing strikeouts. Well, yeah.
Starting point is 00:38:00 Because if you're Shohei or you're Mooki, you're Freddie, or you're Will Smith or you're Tay Oscar, you're an elite ball player that, yeah, we can package strikeouts however we need I think kind of what we're saying is in that, especially in that 2019 era and the bubble around it, you didn't get docked as a player if strikeouts were a weakness for you. Like it was just like, oh, strikeouts happen. Like if you're over 160, if you're going to hit 28 homers, we value that more than the guy who's going to hit 14.
Starting point is 00:38:36 But if you strike out 100 times less, we don't care. Like that's an outs and out. You can't predict where you hit it. where I think baseball's coming back on that. Well, think about Murakami and his three agency. People were like, whoa, he strikes out too much. We didn't hear that for years. All we would have heard about this guy was, he had fucking bombed.
Starting point is 00:38:56 Do you think there's some, okay, for all our Japanese fans tuning in, hello, how are you? I know Trev's getting more and more popular by the day over there, Joe's McFly with a cult following from our company. If we ask Japanese fans, hey, who should have got more money? Morikami or Okamoto, what would they say? Because Murakami was projected by some sites to get $100 million plus dollars. Okamoto kind of got his projection range.
Starting point is 00:39:29 Obviously Murakami's free agency ended differently. And, hey, again, maybe these MLB scouts are amazing at their job. And maybe we shouldn't be pulling the fans. think they would come back and say Murakami, the guy that broke their home run record, but I also don't know. If your sport is employing more and more guys that can strike hitters out, right? Don't you want to combat that with guys that don't strike out? Again, that's kind of...
Starting point is 00:40:01 Is that as simple as we can make this conversation? That's kind of the recipe. And I hope that's what's coming back. And it, again, like, and this kind of... kind of leads us into the speed conversation perfectly, because I just do feel like there is going to be a horrible irony in a couple years. And this is already happening. Like this is the conversation where, you know,
Starting point is 00:40:24 there was kind of quiet conversations in corners where it's like, hey, you know, doesn't contact still matter? Doesn't speed still matter? Oh, the tools of the game? Like, yes. Let's start talking a little bit of base running, Coach Trev. because Dalton labeled this. Base running continuing to be a factor.
Starting point is 00:40:46 I'll raise my hand now and say yes, because it always has been. There were 0.75 steals per game in 2025, the highest since 1990. Whoa, I was half a year old, age myself. Base runners caught 22.6% of the time attempting to steal a base. That was the highest since the bases were made bigger in the disengagement rules, but still the third lowest mark ever recorded.
Starting point is 00:41:17 And Trev, yeah, basically we saw these rules happen live between the disengagement. I'm going to pat myself on the back for that one because I feel like people were hesitant and I was like, no, we need to do this. Pitch clock, I was a little more hesitant, so I'll eat that one. It's just crazy to me. And I think where you get, you and I both get caught up and we don't know what to do is with Naylor and Soto and those guys. But the stolen base is back in a big way,
Starting point is 00:41:43 and I can't see the trend going down. Yeah, so the trend last year, you mentioned it, a ton of stolen base attempts per game. Now, the caught stealing was up from the last couple of years, but still not up enough to stop stealing bases. In fact, most organizations will say, yeah, we want to be somewhere between 75 and 80% successful. that's what we consider an acceptable level of caught stealing.
Starting point is 00:42:16 So 20 to 25% caught stealing. So if we're sitting at 22.6, that means we got 2.5% left to go. I think stolen base attempts are going to go way, way up. And I do think the guys that you mentioned, Josh Nader, Juan Soto, George Springer, Mani Machado, these guys that are slow. Augustine Ramirez was stealing bases last year, people. My goodness. We're going to, and it's always been a discussion in Springtram.
Starting point is 00:42:45 We're going to be the best base running team in all the baseball, and we're going to tick the extra base. I mean, every freaking organization has that. I love when you mock that speech. It's so good. It's because it hurt my soul because I'm like, we're going to run all these dumb first and third plays, blunt plays, all these things to counteract these. And then it's like, well, we run.
Starting point is 00:43:08 play one. Every single time. I'm telling you, the Dodgers, when they ran a wheelplay, that was like, oh my gosh. Whoa. What's this? Wichsraft. Meanwhile, every single high school team in the country is like, we do that. You learn that in seventh grade. Like, again, CT baseball, we don't have a lot, but I think I learned that in seven grade. People are yelling at me. I was like, that wasn't a true wheel play. All right, you guys, you guys got the wheelplay. Take whatever you want. Jeez. So we're seeing, we're seeing all these stolen base attempts. And I think we're going to continue to see more and more and more
Starting point is 00:43:40 because obviously look, if we're going to go more contact oriented, getting on base, we like the pressure that it comes that comes with stolen bases. How do you get slug back if you're going, you know, we're going for singles. Coach, you steal a base. We talked about that.
Starting point is 00:43:56 OPS plus plus. Yes. Right? Like if you hit a single and then you steal second base, isn't that like a double? Like what? Kind of feels like it. So I think we're going to continue to see that. Now, here's a thing that I like, what gets me super fired up and Jimmy
Starting point is 00:44:12 and I kind of were talking about this. The thing that I thought was going to happen with the pitch clock was that the pitchers were going to manipulate it more than they have. They haven't done that. Some guys will run the clock down to two, to one, whatever it is, but they are,
Starting point is 00:44:28 the pitchers are so dumb and so caught up and like, well, I got to make this pitch perfect. Like, gosh, they're so annoying. They don't understand that could use that pitch clock and they don't have to have their best stuff. If they're, if they're, if they're throwing the ball at eight seconds, the next time they're throwing in at one second, and then they're throwing it at 12 seconds, I guess it has to be eight seconds because I have to be
Starting point is 00:44:51 engaged by eight, whatever it is. If I'm engaged at 12 and they just go right away, like all of that would, that would mess with me way more than you having conviction on your pitch. Like, they need to do that more. I'm giving you guys the playbook pitchers. Go ahead and do it. More holds, which means they need to get on the mound. sooner. I think that's the biggest thing that, that, the biggest reason why we don't see more holds is these guys aren't on the mound in time.
Starting point is 00:45:16 Pitch clock starts, man. Get back on the mound. You don't even have to be, have the, the pitch. If I was a pitcher, because you have pitch calm, and most guys, the catchers call on the pitch, right? I'm just going to get set.
Starting point is 00:45:32 I can move my goal. I can figure the pitch out in my glove. I'm going to get set to make the base. runner have to get off and hold out there. And the batter has, you know, he can be out of the box until eight seconds, but it's going to, it's a sense of urgency happens. You just got to start manipulating the pitch clock more. Yes, Max Scherzer, he was doing that. More of this is what they need to combat stolen bases. 100%. Make these guys take their timeouts because they feel uncomfortable. The next thing I want to do, and I said this last year, and nobody did it, but I'm predicting a
Starting point is 00:46:08 trend in 2026 right here. There's how many disengagents do we get, coach? We get one, we get two. Nobody uses the third because if you don't get the guy out, they get second base. Right. But they get the next base. If they're already going to be successful stealing against you and the pitcher is you know who you are, the guys that can't hold runners on or that are slow to the plate,
Starting point is 00:46:31 or maybe your catcher can't throw guys at whatever it is, why aren't we thrown over a third time? that would stop guys from getting that extra jump they get watch watch base stealers after the guys picked over twice they are a third of the way yeah to second base already they're hopping off the bag the new hop thing they do keep doing it I will pick off a third time and if I don't get you all right well you're going to steal second on me anyway so what does it matter I thought thought that was going to come into play in the playoffs. Right.
Starting point is 00:47:07 It didn't happen. I've talked to a couple of different GMs about that, and they were like, oh, like, it's like they didn't even think about it. I don't understand that. It needs to happen. Pitchers, I'm giving you the playbook right now. More holds. Get on the mound sooner.
Starting point is 00:47:23 Get the pitch while you have your hand in the glove. You can wiggle your glove all you want. You know, do that every single time so you don't give away your pitch, whatever it is. But manipulate the clock and then also. pick over a third time. I'm telling you. I'm telling you it's going to happen, Coach. I'm in on it.
Starting point is 00:47:43 And, yeah, I want to talk some Naylor and Soto. But it's all brought to you by our friends at the Draft King Sportsbook. You can bet on stolen bases. You can also bet on the football, playoffs, big weekend. And Draft Kings, they have your back with the early exit protection. If the player in your eligible NFL prop bet goes down at any point in the first half, you still get paid in cash. Not like a bet in cash. And if you're a new customer, bet you's $5. If your bet wins, you'll get $300 in bonus bets instantly. Download
Starting point is 00:48:16 the Drafking Sportsbook app. Use code J.M. Baseball. That's code JAMB baseball to turn $5 and a $300 in bonus bets. If your bet wins. In partnership with Draftings, the crown is yours. Gambling problem. Call 1-800-Gambler. In New York, call 8778. Hope & Y or text Hope and Y 467-369. In Connecticut, Help is available for problem gambling. Call 888-7-8-9-777.7. Or visit ccpg.org. Please play responsibly. On behalf of Boothill Casino when Resort in Kansas,
Starting point is 00:48:43 pass-through of per-wager tax may apply in Illinois. 21 and over. Age and eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Void in Ontario. Restrictions apply. Bet must win to receive bonus bets which expire in seven days. Minimum odds required. Four additional terms and responsible gaming resources, see dkng.org.
Starting point is 00:48:58 Limited time offer. Yes, to all of that, Trev. I will say the after two pickoffs, it has added a nice drama to the sport because if you're thrown over twice, it's usually a speedster and they're now going that it's kind of fun to watch.
Starting point is 00:49:13 And you're right, the fact that guys didn't try to neutralize it because the leads they're getting, they're stealing the base. So it's, hey, might as well take a chance at some point. That, yeah, I'll be interested to see when it does happen, boy, will we be on it first? Because here, the two thought process in my head as I jump over to Naylor and Soto,
Starting point is 00:49:35 two, pardon my French, thick daddies, who stole a ton of bags last year at an incredible rate. Juan Soto was fourth in stolen bases last year with 38 steals and four caught stealing. That is amazing. Josh Naylor, top 20 in steals, 30 stolen bases, two caught stealing. If you're a major league baseball player and you head into the offseason and you're like,
Starting point is 00:50:10 hey, how do I get a little better next year? What can I do? Would you not study those guys if you're looking to add another party trick to the bag? And I guess my other counter to that is because, as I did label them in French thick daddies, again, I don't think the league caught on till late. I don't know if they ever did that I'm very interested to track their stolen bases over this season Nailer in a contract year,
Starting point is 00:50:42 so do not, that I'm very interested to see. Do pitchers start caring about them more? Or do they just have the cheat code at this point? It's the mentality by the pitchers. You talk to them and they'll say, well, I don't care if you're on second base. They literally will tell you that.
Starting point is 00:50:58 I don't care. Doesn't the team say we care if you're on second base? I mean, yes, position players, like, you should care, dude, because you're not that fucking good. But even going back to, like, pitching coach front office, I know pitching coach there's much more an effort on like execute the pitch and whatever. That's what they'll say. I'm going to execute my pitch and I'm going to get this guy out. And the percentages say I'm going to get him out. I'm like, all right, but you stink with runners in scoring position. Right. And you get all tight and tense when runners are in scoring position. Like you're not that guy, pal. like everybody all these pitchers think they're that guy and they're not dude they're not
Starting point is 00:51:33 can't tell a pitcher you're not that guy pal that's not a good picture i tell all of them all of you guys are not that guy you got me out a lot still don't care yeah still telling you that right now i it's it's it's guys have to buy into it essentially the reason these guys are stealing all these bases it's like a secret they don't have a secret sauce you know what they're doing they're going over it with their base running coach saying well this guy i mean you could just you could look up all this data right now. AI. Hey man. First of all, we've had this forever. Again, AI episode. AI episode. If a guy doesn't pick over, he doesn't pick over. He doesn't just change all of a sudden in one game. And if he does, so what, take advantage of it. There are guys that just literally
Starting point is 00:52:16 do not pick. Or there are guys that are consistently a one four to the plate. And they just can't do it any better. So it's just a simple math equation. Okay. But this, guy, let's call him a one three to one four to the plate. And it takes me X amount of time to get to second base. My normal lead and my speed, it's going to take me this long to get to second base. Now add that to the catcher's average pop time. If I get there before the ball gets to home, so the one four plus the average catcher's pop time, I can steal bases. That's all it is. So you start to realize, well, shoot, I have a, a ball gets to home. So the one four plus the average catchers pop time, I can steal bases. I can steal bases. That's all it is. So you start, so you start, a point three advantage between these two guys right here. I'm going. Like that's all it is.
Starting point is 00:53:06 And so Juan Soto and John Sneeler are picking these guys out very selectively. It's not like, hey, I'm going on this guy who's a one to the plate or a one one to the plate. No, they're not going on those guys or guys that have rockets and get rid of the ball behind the plate. They're picking their battles. And it's it's like almost you can't defend it because these guys for a catcher it's like well dude i mean it is i am who i am back there i can i'm not not everyone's a one seven or a one eight like certain guys pop time two one okay that's just who i am maybe i block the ball a little bit better maybe i'm an offensive minded catcher i don't have the catch and throw so that guy's kind of locked in the pitcher can make a little bit of a difference but for the
Starting point is 00:53:50 most part again those guys are locked in on making their pitches they're not going to say well i'm to start slide stepping out of nowhere or hurrying my delivery, even though they should work on that, they don't. So, like, they're very much locked in. These times don't change much. Once you have a guy's average pop time, and once you guys have a pitcher's average time to home, like, those are locked in. The only time is that you'll get something different is like, hey, man, maybe he throws a high and away fastball. It's like a perfect throwball for the catcher. Like that will increase his pop time, okay? But once you have those numbers, man,
Starting point is 00:54:27 it's literally just an arithmetic, which even you and I can do, Jake. That's it, man. A central Connecticut state man and a Stanford man. How do you combat that, though? Holds. Hold. Picking off a third time.
Starting point is 00:54:40 Like all these things come into play, but I think stolen bases, and especially attempts all the way up. It'd be a lot of fun if next year just gets crazy. If everyone did watch Soto and Naylor and is like, let's get it. Well, guys have been doing this. Auerpoole also used to steal bags all the time. Like, there are guys that will steal bags.
Starting point is 00:54:59 There's another really good example I can't think of right now. It'll come to you, I believe. Big boys stealing bags. But it's all it is, it's just preparation, man. You want to talk about victories and the margins. That's the easiest way to get it done. Yeah, and that's where I'd like to, a couple of the highlights that Bobby Golfs put on the screen there.
Starting point is 00:55:18 There was a couple two outs ones that that's funny. Like you mentioned that we have all this information and we talk about pitchers executing. I wonder how many Naylor Soto, two outs, like they don't care. But hey, if you get to third or second base, you could care a lot. You could care a lot the next pitch, especially what if Soto can see in your glove at second base?
Starting point is 00:55:37 And now Pete knows what's coming. He's an Oriole now. That there's so many layers to it that it's everything we've talked about, that it's the beauty of baseball as a. sport and it's the beauty of every sport like sorry to my basketball fans that I shot down now but there's so much that goes into playing every sport that's playing the actual sport that I'm I'm excited to see where the steals goes because how could you not if you're every player on the field being like didn't big dumper steal 14 so like okay there's bags to be had out there and
Starting point is 00:56:14 you're right it's because a chunk of it's getting the jump so So if the pitcher doesn't throw over, like, I'm just thinking right now, I think we had a Naylor stealing third. What if a pitcher never throws the second? Okay. Guess what Naylor's going to do? He's just going to get a crazy jump and you're not going to get him there. 22 steals between Naylor and Soto with two outs last year.
Starting point is 00:56:37 Okay. And according to Dalton Naylor had 30 stolen bases in 2025. And in his six years prior to that, he had 25 stolen bases. So I'll be interested to see a contract year, which, you know, why not go get them? His Seattle steal numbers are just absurd. And we saw like, you know, Shohei put up his 50-50 and then he slowed down his steals last year. Obviously an outlier for a lot of different reasons. But I'll be interested to see.
Starting point is 00:57:10 And yeah, it is going to be funny. Will teams actually care? Will teams actually care? How do you not care? I don't understand it. Look at numbers. Maybe get this Bobby or Doll if you can. Look at numbers.
Starting point is 00:57:29 OPS, runners in scoring position versus OPS runners on first. Or not in scoring position. I wonder if you can just look up not in scoring position. I like that. I'm guaranteeing OPS with running a scoring position is higher. Another prediction for 2026. Interesting.
Starting point is 00:57:46 I like that. Oh. the return of the pitch out. Oh my gosh. Modified. Modified pitch out. Because listen, listen. Another, here, this one's for free organizations.
Starting point is 00:58:03 I mean, unbelievable. There are a lot of times where we're trying to throw a fastball at the top of the zone, aren't we? And what's a pitch out? It's just a fastball at the top of the zone, maybe a little bit further outside. But you don't really need to do that. The catchers don't need it away. They don't need a ball in the other fucking batterers box. Dude, they need a fastball up.
Starting point is 00:58:27 That's what helps them throw. They get them up out of their crouch, ball here, next to their throwing release point. And that's a pitch out. That's what you need. So pitchers need to understand now how do you do a correct pitch out? It's not a full leg lift And it's not a slide step It's a little bit above
Starting point is 00:58:52 Oh God Oh God. What was that? I looked like our Ray's trying to steal home there Is that what comes up if you search pitch out? If you search pitch out outs There were four of them last year. Jake Mangum Over.
Starting point is 00:59:06 Give me the over on them. But you have to pitchers need to know how to do this Which they don't anymore. A lot of them when they get pitch out, they're like, oh shoot, I need to I need to be quick to the plate. No, base runners are taught to stop on a slide step for the most part. Are two of them against Chandler Simpson?
Starting point is 00:59:25 Love that. Is that Chan? No, that's coming here. I ask Rock O' Baldelli to his face. I said, our pitchouts dead. This was in a pregame scrum, and he basically said, yeah, we're not trying to give away a ball. I'm like, well, maybe we just, every once in a while give away a ball. I think Dalton Feeley has some OPS information for us.
Starting point is 00:59:45 So I haven't calculated the league averages from runners in scoring position to just runners on base. But looking at the trends, Treviour theory was right. Among teams OPS in runners in scoring position versus runners on base, runners in scoring position is higher. The top two teams last year, OPS and runners in scoring base are ISP. Blue Jays. Los Angeles Dodgers, Toronto Blue Jays. What do they both do last year?
Starting point is 01:00:13 Make it to the world series. That's good. they both won the World Series except IKF didn't get home. It's late in the episode. It's late in the episode. I'm sorry. Pitch outs are back.
Starting point is 01:00:23 Pitch outs are back? They're not like us. Jesus, are we at a buck? We were just yucking. We didn't even get to pitchers, should we? I gave pitchers so much information. I want to do... It makes me sick.
Starting point is 01:00:40 I want to do five or ten, because I actually, my thoughts aren't clear on it, so I just get to listen to you, Big Daddy. I guess I want to jump to just like what, not what will be the pitch of the year. By the way, ABS is going to be here this year. Yeah. Forgetting about that.
Starting point is 01:00:57 Yeah. I guess here's how I would phrase it, and if you don't have an answer, I'm sorry, but this is fake Chris Rose. This is Jimmy meets Chris Rose. What will be the in pitch this year and what will be the out pitch this year? Because this is just straight opinion.
Starting point is 01:01:13 I think we're going to see a cutter decline because I think cutters were cool for a little bit because of what you said like, hey, have a cutter, have a four seam, have a sinker, like you can mess with guys, be Sunny Gray, be Lance Lynn. Those guys are really good at doing that that I think a lot of bad cutters developed and got rocked. That I think we might see the cutter fade.
Starting point is 01:01:36 Well, here's my take on all this. It should be very, very pitcher-specific. So you have to go in and say, where's my arm angle? How's my hand placement? What can I do with my body? Because everyone's different. Yeah, what can you do with your body?
Starting point is 01:01:54 I've seen your dance moves. You can do a lot. Not going to lie. I can cover. I can cover. So I think it's pitcher-specific. Yeah, some guys can't manipulate the ball to throw a cutter. So don't throw a cutter.
Starting point is 01:02:06 But that should be like, that's all flushed out during the off-season. You should be in front of all these cameras hooked up. All your data is there. And you have to just understand. You need somebody that can read the data. I know a lot of pictures can. But if I'm a pitcher right now, I'm either going the drive line or having somebody drive line-esque with me throwing bullpens.
Starting point is 01:02:30 And they can understand the concepts of my arm angle, my release point, and what plays from that. Okay. That's where you start. What's my average release point? what's my, you know, like my depth. What do they call that when they get out in front? Release point. Why am I, where am I?
Starting point is 01:02:49 Oh, um. Oh, dang it. I mean, release point, no? No. Depth? Huh? Depth. It's not what you're looking for.
Starting point is 01:02:59 Extension. Extension. Godly. What's my extension? Never been our strength. Down the hill. Is it up? Whatever it is.
Starting point is 01:03:07 You got to have those based. baseline understanding of who you are as a pitcher and maybe you change maybe you can change you try a few things out but hey this is what works best for me and then pick your pitches from that that's that's that's that's it not everyone can throw every single pitch uh i'll go back to joe ryan all the time talking about his pitches and and he's like you know i found out that yeah i'm a i'm a i'm a low release point guy but i'm not and and back in the day people thought low release point, sankers. Right. But the way he can manipulate
Starting point is 01:03:43 the ball from that release point, he was, it was better, it was better for him to throw 14 fast balls top of the zone. Paul Seawalt. Yeah, so you just have to I think pitchers need to get on like the extremes. Like that's not, like you don't want to be like every single pitcher, especially if you're a
Starting point is 01:03:59 guy who hasn't had a ton of success and is still trying to break through, like be the guy with the most extension or be the guy with the least amount of extension or be the guy with the highest arm angle or the lowest angle. I mean, look at the look at Rogers, man. Oh. Like he wasn't going to make it as a regular pitcher.
Starting point is 01:04:15 So go be extreme. But again, I think as far as what pitch is going to be in, I think it's just going to go. My take on that is it's pitchers getting super specific with their biomechanics and I'm throwing the pitches that work for me. Deception rules. I need that. I can't be the guy that throws every single pitch if that's not me.
Starting point is 01:04:36 So same thing with hitters. I kind of like play to your strengths. You have to do that as a pitcher. I think we're seeing that. I think for the most part of the last three or four years, guys have just really honed in on that. But the basic understanding, I think it's still,
Starting point is 01:04:49 there's still room for growth there. I think guys like understand the numbers and the data points, but then what works from there, I think it still needs to be taught more to these pictures, especially, you know, young kids who just like, hey, this is where I want to be able to spin. I want to have the most spin possible my fastball. and it's like, okay, great, but like, maybe that's not you.
Starting point is 01:05:12 Maybe that's not what you should do. So that's kind of where I'm, Matt. As a hitter, I don't want to see a guy with seven pitches that he throws over 10% of time. That's just not what I like. Give me the two-pitch pitcher. I don't care if they're elite. If I can have a 50-50 guess to what pitch you're throwing and sometimes even higher than that because the count or the who's on base to give me that all day long.
Starting point is 01:05:34 Yeah, I just, and again, this is very much just opinion, I think. Like you said, because of that hitter mentality of the more pitches you have, I feel like a cutter is like mentally the easiest next pitch. It's like, oh, yeah, you know, move your fingers around, cuts a little bit. It's not, you know, your sinker goes this way. But the problem is it's usually three or four miles per hour less. So if it's over the plate and you're ready for the fastball, they can just get cranked.
Starting point is 01:06:01 But just pure opinion there. This might be a Jolly Oliver, a Foolish Bailey question. because I don't know how we'd fully research it. But the most, I don't want this to come off as rude. The most average pitcher, like 50% extension, like 50% fastball, 50% off the scene. Like which pitcher when you put all their stuff in the lab is like, the least unique pitcher.
Starting point is 01:06:29 Can I guess? I know, it gets a little rude. I can throw out a handful of names that jump to my mind. It's, no, no, it's kind of rude. okay yeah look pitchers have the advantage when he used to pitch
Starting point is 01:06:43 who Tanner Rourke Tanner Rourke when he used to be in the league just I thought we were going to get into this a little bit more so I wanted to just give a shout out to our guy Eno Seris
Starting point is 01:06:52 who's basically created the stat that like is the stat for pitchers now and stuff plus stuff plus yeah it's like the stat yeah I didn't I guess I didn't fully realize that either and then I was
Starting point is 01:07:02 yes you start reading more in baseball articles and they're like his stuff plus on his slider and you're like, oh, we're just, yeah, and then teams started to, team started to develop their own stuff plus stack because every team has proprietary statistics that they use
Starting point is 01:07:16 and like they're, whatever. It's like, okay, dude. Yeah. There's only so much math in the fucking world, okay? And it's math real. I don't know. Okay. Yeah, our number's real.
Starting point is 01:07:27 I was wondering if we want to do a math real or I wanted, you know, we were texting in the group chat. You had some commentary. You were doing the dishes last night. I was really, it was proud of you. It's proud of you. You do everything.
Starting point is 01:07:39 You do everything. I think the people should know that. In the end, Jake, we're all just ones and zeros. Binary, baby. Trev, let's send everyone out as we're doing this offseason with our Seat Geek prediction. Seat Geek free agent forecast. We keep tabs on the next move and we kind of need a next move.
Starting point is 01:08:04 We're due. I guess, Treve, what does your mind's mind see as you look at the free agents? There's been quotes from Scott Boris saying that, why am I forget the name now, Atkins up in Toronto? He's holding the market up. It's all on him because he has to make a decision on Tucker, on Bichette, on Bregman. If that's the case, if I'm Atkins, I'm like, all right, I'm not making a. fucking thing for the next month. Like, why would you? If you have that
Starting point is 01:08:38 leverage, if Scott Boris, who has a lot of these high-end guys is saying that, I just wait them out then. Scott, come to me, baby. So is that a prediction? I don't know what that was. I don't know how I'd label that. If you're Atkins,
Starting point is 01:08:54 and Scott Boris is coming and saying, you hold the keys. Yeah, hell yeah, I hold the keys. Doors locked. Okay. Good prediction. My prediction is we're going to be cold until February. Until feb. We got a lot of guys out there, bro.
Starting point is 01:09:17 I'm going to... I'll give you one. Okay. Great. Alex Bragman to the Red Sox. Okay. They figure it out. Apparently there's a six-year deal, almost $180 million.
Starting point is 01:09:28 I think it's $171, I read. Take the deal, part. Right. The Matt Chapman Plus deal. Just get it done. You're about it. Okay. I think that's good.
Starting point is 01:09:39 I guess I might be just mentally fading myself a little bit here. The Bellinger stuff's getting hot. He's getting multiple offers. I think he has to sign before Tucker for the Tucker team to happen, although maybe we'll get the Toronto prediction you just gave, even though it wasn't a prediction. I'll go belly Mets. It's gone a little quiet over there.
Starting point is 01:10:05 We forget the Mets have to do a lot of work. the Mets aren't shy to go for a Yankees seconds, if you will. And I think the Yankees have a limit on belly that they know what that is. I think as we know with the Mets, they don't. And belly, whether it's the outfield or first base or whatever it is, he solves so, so much for them that I'm worried that again, the Mets will outbid the Yankees and a Yankee outfielder. goes there. So again, maybe I'm just mentally, mentally getting that out there to get out of the way,
Starting point is 01:10:43 but also it's been a little too quiet. I wish you could Terminator to like bring this, bring that clip that you just said right there back to like, I don't know, 1998. The Mets obviously going to outspend the Yankees or outbid the Yankees. That's just, it's something, coach. You know what? We're here. We're deep in the episode. Oh, give me something. Yankees fan base is in a... Yankees fan base is spinning right now. Okay.
Starting point is 01:11:15 Judge is 34, Cole is 35. Toronto went to the World Series last year. They've already had a big offseason. Boris says they're holding up the next part of the off season. Yankee fans are in a dark spot, man. From what you just said, Coach Trout. I get it.
Starting point is 01:11:35 The Yankees, we make the playoffs almost every year, not 2023. Are they the Yankees? They're the Yankees, coach. Why aren't we talking Why aren't we talking about the Yankees? Bring back the facial hair policy. If you want to be the Yankees, be the freaking Yankees. I do, yeah, you mention it.
Starting point is 01:11:57 A little perspective will be nice. You know, us twins fans out there, we're... I get it. We're excited about the Eric Wagamon trade. It's nice. Got a lot of at-bats last year. We're like, we're stoked that we didn't trade away. Joe Ryan, like, who the hell would ever try?
Starting point is 01:12:14 tradeaway Joe Ryan. That's what we're happy about. I get it. As a sports fan, as a Knicks fan that had to wait 20 years for them to be a confident. If freaking Ryan Jeffers goes to the Phillies, I'm going to be pissed. That's my catcher. I like Ryan Jeffers.
Starting point is 01:12:29 Yeah, me too. I like Ryan Jeffers. I guess, I don't know. Here I am emotional 72 minutes. And the Yankees used to stand for something. They used to stand for something. He used to stand for something. Now it's just like a fashion statement.
Starting point is 01:12:43 That's all it is. And it's not even anymore. Grow that beer out. Disagree. So a lot of Yankee hats in Japan. Oh, that's what you mean. Yes. No, the Yankee hat merch brand?
Starting point is 01:12:56 Pretty good. But was that Jay-Z? And that's what the next hour is about. Let's talk Jay-Z. Hove! Where are they at? I had something else I was going to say, dang, man. Okay.
Starting point is 01:13:08 It was about J&B. Who's that? Oh, Jay-Z and Beyonce. Easy. I was into Beyonce for a while. She was like, she was my number one. I don't blame you. Yeah, she's very talented.
Starting point is 01:13:22 Yes. Yes. Still performing. My number one's Olivia. Shout out Liv. That's what else I'm going to say. Dang it. Okay.
Starting point is 01:13:34 I will talk very slowly as I tell the people. Thank you so much. Shout out to Rob. Shout out to Dal. Shout out to Jimmy before the show. Again, the people didn't get it, but it was electric. shout out to baseball January 7th
Starting point is 01:13:50 Otani Day I don't say Sam Fold Oh Nameless Jeff No text Whoa No text from Sam
Starting point is 01:14:02 James Loney though Oh See you at tennis Big boy Hey you know who could take Lucas Erseg the other way He could shoot it James
Starting point is 01:14:11 Oh On broadcast when a guy goes Opo I just want you to yell Shoot her I do

There aren't comments yet for this episode. Click on any sentence in the transcript to leave a comment.