Talkin' Baseball (MLB Podcast) - Has Your Team Beaten Expectations? | 854

Episode Date: June 26, 2024

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Hello and welcome to Talking Baseball. It's a mid-season checking episode. Where are we at? How do we get here? Who's overachieving? Who are we mad at? Let's get hot. Not Croninworth.

3.01 Soto Bunt. What was that about? Hello and welcome to Talking Baseball. I'm Jake Storelli. At Talking Jake. Twitter, Insta, TikTok, I think. Trevor Plouf at T. Plouf 69. What's the handle?

Well, it depends what account you want to fall. Right. Yeah. BBD on the ones, twos, threes, and fours. Welcome. Happy June 26th. It's about to be July. What the hell, man?

How you doing, Trump? I'm doing great. This is like one of my favorite episodes to do because it reminds everybody, all the fan bases, that you kind of like, you don't know about you team. Free season, you have your roster and you're like, okay, like this guy did this last year and this guy's going to take a step forward and then the season comes and it plays out and there's injuries and there's over performances, there's underperformances. and most of the time, as you're going to see in this episode,

the lines are way off, your expectations are way off. So it's a good reminder of that. You've got to go play it on the field. How about that? You can't just do this. I can do that. You can do that. I just did it again.

What does that even mean? I don't know. At first I thought you were doing like a little critter clawing away? But was that a keyboard? Oh, that was a puppet thing? It wasn't, though. That was a keyboard, yeah. Yeah, and I think we're going to go over our over-unders we do when we do our team

profile and projections. And it's, man, not so hot currently, but I think it's also fun to do the storyline of like reliving it and like, oh yeah. Like especially this year with the late free agency. We had a couple weird notes in there. And then it's kind of funny because, you know, if you're someone who's in a, in the gambling world, you know that there's times that you just need to change your brain to do it. And some of those have led to good moments for us and some of those have led to bad moments for us.

But yeah, and also just reliving the first half of the season. Like we're there, Harry. And what has happened, Jake? And I'm excited for also the teams that, you know, a lot of these are still in the middle. There's a lot of these that are going to get decided by, and I guess it's an optimistic thing for some teams right now that some teams are going to have a great second half. Like you see it every year, players have great second halves. On the other side of the coin, there's going to be teams that have horrible second halves. Yankees, how you dawn?

Oh, my gosh. Shout out to my guy, a little mozzarella follow for follow on the gram. And yeah, Soto didn't know it was a 3-0 count. He thought it was 2-0. He forgot there was a pitch clock violation. So everyone was like, whoa, hey pal.

We need homers out of you. He did. My fingerprints are all over this league. They lost to the grimettes. Trev, let's get into it. And let's get into summer with maybe the number one thing to get into summer. It's booking.

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And all these American baseball cities, man, go check them out. You're telling me you can't have a good weekend in Cincinnati. I know I can't. I can do a lot more than that. I know you have. We're heading up to Boston in a couple weekends. I got to get my drinking shorts ready for that.

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Book it through booking.com. Trev, where do you want to kick off? Do we want to show off our pelts on the wall, a couple of our victories right now? It's a good question, Jake. Do we start out hot or do we start out cold and then bring the people up? That's called a crescendo. Because the people probably want our bad news first. And there's more bad news than good news currently.

I think we should go to where we went all together. I like doing that because a lot of these we did all agree on them. And let's start out with the ones that we did poorly on. at least that are losing right now. So we can start off right at the top. We went over on the Arizona Dianbacks. The line was 83 and a half. And currently they're on pace for 80 wins.

Now this is one obviously. We can still get there. I did watch the D-Backs play last night. Corbyn Carroll's swing looking a little bit better. Could tell Marte playing crazy. The bullpen hasn't been great for them in June, but they still have. have the guys at the back end. You still have Ryan Thompson. You still have ginkly. You still have

Seawald. They shut the twins down last night. Um, so I, this one's not decided. This one's not decided. And I actually think that we are going to be right, uh, by the end of the year here. Yeah. I mean, it feels like they're on the right track, but it is funny to relive their whole off season. They, they got a lot of work done late. Um, and yeah, I want to know something funny. Yeah, always. This is off. This is off. This is off the, a little. little bit off, a shot at the Mariners. And BPD might need to fact check me here. I was just looking up

strikeout percentages per the teams. And you know, the Mariners sent a few guys to the Diamondbacks last year in an effort to curb their strikeout percentage. I believe they still lead the league in strikeout

percentage. So they're trying to get away from that and it's just hounding them. I've seen a lot of that. I don't know if they're number one, but I I've also, I don't know, man. Something about guys getting traded to the Mariners for one year never clicks. Like it's, like your guy, Jorge Palanka.

I know he's banged up now. He's banged up. Hey. I have Mariners is still number one. Wow. Okay. Next one that we all were in agreeance on. Is that even a word?

Agreement or agreeance? I think they're both, right? The Red Sox under 80 and a half. It actually got switched to 77 and a half, but we took it at 80 and a half. And that was because, well, Lucas G. Alito got hurt. We didn't know where their pitching was going to come from.

Their starting pitching was like a bunch of question marks. Guys that either underperformed the year before or really hadn't shown it at the big league level, well, they're on pace to win 87 games right now. So you could say it's still up in the air, but I don't think so. I think the Red Sox will finish over 80 and a half wins. And that's been for a lot of different reasons,

shaking, not just their pitching. they've had some offensive outbursts from some of the young players that have come up. They look like a team that's set up to compete for years to come. Like they're athletic, they're young-ish, like they have a good mixture of veterans and young guys, and they're playing really good ball right now. Yeah, I mean, they're one good stretch from this being,

like we, I guess we're in an election year, and this is where we always take these episodes. But on election day, when it starts doing the, like, you know, with 90% of the voting in, we're giving Montana. Like, you're conceding. I'm not ready to concede yet, but the socks are like one decent stretch away, right? Like, if they have one more good stretch, and we, you know,

Dalton and John Cox were putting some time into this sheet, you know, the Red Sox can go 38 and 44 the rest of the way and they hit their over. And what they've shown up until this point between the pitching and their injuries that we moved on from pretty quickly. Like the socks are on pace and it's a credit to them and they are in the mix of the wild card. And like I kind of think their front office is going to do something because they are in the mix. So it's probably not a true rental. But like they kind of have something going now between Duran and some of their other young players that. and Boston, they've been,

it's been a little while since 2021. That they, that's a baseball city. They don't have many needs. That's the interesting thing. Can you improve your roster always? But like they don't really have glaring needs right now. That's got, that's, not many teams can say that across baseball.

So good for Boston. We can move right on to the Cubs. They were 84 and a half. We all took the over. You said 87 wins. You know, they bring it. Craig counsel. The hoopla was there. They bring Bellinger back and, you know, it's like, okay, this team is kind of like they're, they're on the up and up. We're going to, we're going to

see some good ball in Chicago. Like, we really believed that they were ready to take the next step. Well, they haven't. Offensively, they have not been there. They just haven't performed. They dealt with some injuries early on, but can't really say that now. It's a little bit of an underperformance by them. Right now they're on pace for 75 wins, 74.9 to get to the over. They'd have to play 48 and 34 ball. 14 games over 500 for the rest of the year. I'm not saying that one's cooked just yet,

but they're going to have to go on like a magical run. I think I was debating how I was going to phrase this, and I've got two things. First, I'm going to come in like boyfriend breaking up with their significant other, where it's like, you know what I love, I love Ian Hap. I love Pete Crow Armstrong. You know, Bellies my guy, Jameson Tion.

Oh, Grigley, does it get better? Dude, I'm... You didn't even say Christopher Morel, your guy. My guy guy, guy. That's because I don't want to bring him into this. But dude, I'm over the Cubs. They did this last year. I'm sorry.

I want to know where Cubs fans are at. And then the second thing that came to my mind was, um, right now the Red Sox and the Cubs are equidistant from their over-under totals. I think the Cubs are coming in seven games short. The Red Sox are seven games over. I'm much closer to declaring the Cubs done. And obviously the Red Sox have been more successful, so that makes sense.

But the Cubs are doing the same thing. And in Cubs of Paloza, they advertised Hoyer and counsel over their Hall of Fame players, and it still makes me mad. This is true. What was that? What was that? Headlining.

It's crazy. We actually were in agreeance on a lot of teams so we can kind of move through these ones quickly. Detroit is one. This one's kind of still up in the air. It was 80 and a half. We all said over.

I said 81 wins exactly. And they're on pace to win 76 games. So they're right there. They've done some things right. I don't think they're going to keep the band together throughout the season. I think they probably will end up trading Flaherty who's had a nice start to the year.

Riley Green surely is the guy that we thought he was going to be, but they just haven't done enough, Jake. Yeah, not out on them getting to 500, but it, you know, it was a reminder before the, before the season, we thought a AL central team would click outside of the twins. And I think everyone who listens to this probably knows what team has clicked up into the, well, actually two teams clicked. So, well, we'll get to that. And the next team was, and Detroit's not out of the woods for the over under at least, but

it kind of has been disappointing over there. They got to go 44 and 39 to hit that over. So not too bad. Five games over 500. Could they do it? Yes. But again, I think they might cash in on some of the one-year deals.

A couple pity wins in September. Did you see that Matt Veerling was the guy that hit into the one three-five trip of play that hadn't happened since 1920? Of course. You know how to scout him. None of us knew how to scout Kansas City, Trub, because we talked ourselves into like, hey, at least they made moves this off season, but they, what was their win total last year?

56 or something? So it was like, okay, to get to 73, all of us were like, I don't, I guess we didn't realize how bad it was last year. They've been great. They've slowed down a little bit, but 43 and 38, they're on an 86 win pace. The wheels would have to fall off to an unreal degree. they'd have to be 31 and 50 still gets them to their over on the season. So I know the last couple weeks have been edgy and Casey,

but they've played a lot of good teams. And it's a reminder, man, they are, for what they were expected to do, snaps for Kansas City. I think that was our thought process was how high can you jump from one season to next? How many games can you improve? That's crazy. and they're showing us now that they can kind of do whatever they want. Obviously, we knew Bobby Witt was going to be good.

We didn't. This is another pitching staff that we just, I mean, let's jump back to March. Was there anybody that was like, hey, man, this starting pitching staff is going to run it through the first half of the year? No. No. Like, they made improvements. We were happy for them, but they definitely exceeded expectations. and Sal Perez continues to be himself.

They got some young guys there that the future for Kansas City is looking real, real nice. So I'm happy that we're wrong on this one. Yeah, that's crazy the improvement. That is nuts because I think it was 56 games last year. Well, okay, so this next one I think is out because the angels are on there, but I think Jimmy is on the under technically. Yeah, so that one's out. Okay, so they're out.

We both have the over there and it is currently on pace for the under. They're just a team that continues to, what are we supposed to say? Yeah. You know, Angels fans will get mad at us, but they're just a team that continues to disappoint. Obviously, Mike Trout going out is. Yeah. That was kind of the end. Really?

Yeah, because there's a little Ron Washington hype train. How good is the defensive infield going to be? And that's kind of, that's kind of zigzagged a little bit this season. A couple tough Ron pressers. Well, we said, yeah, he had some tough. pressers. We said Rendon, let's see what he does with him. He's been hurt. Um, so, you know, they're, they're doing what they can. Uh, the roster just doesn't stack up against other teams, essentially. Uh, they're on pace right now for 66 and a half wins. It have to go 40 and 44 to

hit the over. So that's not like crazy. It's not out. I don't know. It's, it's not out. Like, again, if they, if they have a good young guy month where it's like, Like, hey, all the Netto and whoever else, they ball out for a month and play a couple games over 500. It's not out of the woods, but they're out of the woods this season. One, I don't think we can spend a lot of time on because it's, we need to tell the boys if there's like a too close to call column. We need to label that a little better. The Oakland Athletics, we all went under at 56 and a half. They're on pace for 57.

So that's currently a loser. That one's going to be tight all the way. And I think for whatever reason, the A's have felt better than that. Well, they started off with a 13 and 14 April. So we're like, okay, and they had a little street going there where it looked like, you know, there's young players there that have the potential to be really good. Gelloff has been a disappointment this year. Jay J.J. Blade.

Sodorstrom has been better than he was last year. That was the opposite in 2023. It was Gelloff taking off. Sotom didn't have, you know, success at the big level. It's kind of flip-flop there. In May, 9 and 19, June 6 and 17, it's kind of, the Mason-Miller train is there, although he's been a little bit more human than his first few outings.

So, yeah, this one's too close to call. I would say that. And again, I don't think we need to spend a ton of time on Oakland. San Diego is the next one. We all went under there. This is really close to call. It was an 81.5. playing to an 82 or an 80, excuse me, an 82.9, so an 83 win pace right now.

This isn't out of the woods, but it feels like it. They're getting hot right now. That's why. They traded for a rise. Hey, Tatis just got her. And I don't know. Like, I've seen this team fall down the stretch. I mean, technically last year, they were incredible down the stretch.

It was just literally too little too late. Yeah. But I don't know. There, they're one game over there. expected pace. So that's, it's felt better, but it's kind of not. They've had some crazy games as of late that I think probably, you know, gets us into this headspace. But they've, I mean, the game last night against the, against the Nationals was wild. Yeah. It was wild. It starts out with a hit by pitch to Pro Far. Next pitch, Mani

Machado goes up top. It's a lot of chirping. Like, this is the San Diego team that we want. Yeah. Loud, boisterous, you know, DGAF, you know, doing whatever they want. Obviously, ProFar has been a big part of that. Matt Waldron's been a big part of it. I expect them to hit the over here. I really do. I think everyone does.

I want to see as I wear my Jay Croninworth hat. He put you in a headlock to get that hat. The San Francisco Giants, we all ended up over, 81 and a half, them in the Padres with the same line. The Giants got a lot of work done late. We said if they signed a Sneller Monty at the time, we were all going over. They're on pace.

That hasn't worked out for them. They're on pace for 77. They haven't shown us a ton of hope, except your guy, Elliot Ramos. I wonder, is there going to be a Robbie Ray resurgence? What does this team do at the deadline? Currently feels like a loser. but they still control their own fate a little bit.

Yeah, the Snell signing has basically been a disaster. He's saying that they're trying to rush him back, that he hasn't felt himself at all this year, and he wants to take his time to make sure he's healthy, and he's basically called them out and said, all they want is for me to pitch, and I'm not ready. I can see it from both sides here. You sign the guy for a lot of money.

He definitely wanted to pitch. They've had a lot of injuries to their pitching staff, which has kind of been their problem over the last couple of years is like they just haven't been able to fulfill a full pitching staff. They've just been piecing it together for years it seemed like they had that figured out this year

and then just has kind of been that again. So this one's going to come down to the wire for sure. I think they're a better team than they've showed, especially in June. They're 9 and 13 right now. I think they could figure it out. Blake Snell was your flight buddy. I found that out over the weekend.

So what's going on over there? Do you just unplug your mic, mid-show? No, I got to plug my computer in. He carried my beer bag and was very happy to do it. And it wasn't like, hey, you got to do this thing. We just talked about it one day. The St. Louis Cardinals, 84 and a half over under. They're on pace for 84.2.

So again, chalking that one up as a consensus loser, it's insanity to me that all of us were on the Cardinals over to start the season. That's one of those TPP modes Because they were atrocious last year It felt off It felt like It felt like a one-off Like you can't be the Cardinals

Consistent type baseball And then just be the worst team To ever set foot on the field Problems in the clubhouse everything It felt just weird It felt like it was going to correct itself This one I'm confident in.

I feel like the Cardinals. Yeah, I do. I think they have the roster. I don't think they're going to sell. I think that they might min- I think they might mini-ad here. The pitching's been dang good, sunny gray.

How long is Sunny Gray going to be like a si young guy? Like for the next five years, six more years? Like he is just one of those dudes that's figured it out. And I will say this about him. Guys that pitch this long

have to have the ability to make a job and they become new pitchers, I don't know if Sunny's going to have to do that. Like, he's never relied, like, on one thing. Like, he's always a guy that's had a ton of pitches. You know, like, DeViloh's been there, it hasn't been there, whatever it is.

Like, he just knows how to pitch it. Right. He's always, like, been a pitcher. Do you remember last year there was a weird, like, Sunny Gray retirement-type deal? But it's kind of ironic. He's a dog, and like it, like you're saying, with his pitching style,

I don't know. Sunny Gray has a pitch till he's 42 vibe in him, but I love Sunny Gray. I really love Sunny Gray. Trev, the last that we're currently all incorrect on, and I'm actually feeling better right now, because we've got a couple in here. Arizona could flop. Detroit, maybe. Oakland is like actually there. San Diego, San Francisco, St. Louis. The Tampa Bay raise, we all, 84 and a half. They're back to 500.

go look at Ray's box scores. The names are different. Low. Taylor Walls back in action last night. Like the Jimmy's and the Joe's matter. And especially if like Toronto goes full send the other way here, which they're not yet. I don't know.

The rays are going to be more interesting than I would have thought if we did this two weeks ago. A lot of. of the guys that we think would be carrying the raise have just been bad. So like that kind of makes me think we're going to have some positive

regression and we're going to see some streaks from the race. Now like you know things haven't been, they haven't been great for them at the early part of the season but here we are looking at a 500 team all of a sudden I feel like that kind of crept up on us. We kind of like put the raise to bed a little bit and all of a sudden we're

sitting here at 500 so I'm liking that one. That was like our double lock. We all were like, oh my gosh, 84.5. That's ridiculous for the raise. Like, you know they're going to have their voodoo magic. At the beginning of the year, it looked pretty poor for us. But yes, they've been playing much better ball as of late.

Let me get some of these schedule results. Okay. Raise analytics here. They were 12 and 15 in April for a 444 winning percentage. Then they went 14 and 13. Okay. One game over 5. and then in June, two games over five, 12 and 10.

Uh-oh. This is the race. They're coming. They're coming. They are inevitable. So I feel good about that one. Ray's Astros. You know what's something else you feel good about, Trev?

Arrow press. And I didn't even know. I didn't even know. I thought you were going to, you know, normally when I start talking, you kind of start drifting off into the abyss. You look out to the pool, We'll see lives out there.

I didn't know you were an aeropress guy, and it's made me become an aeropress guy. You cook on it, Tray. I got it. Yeah, well, okay. For a while, I was doing the pod coffee thing. I used to have a pot, you know, a drip pot. And then I found that that was kind of like a messy cleanup,

and like maybe I even made a little bit too much coffee, so I was drinking too much. Then I went to the pod thing where you can troll the cup size, all that. I feel like that's just a lot of waste. You know, it's not good for the environment. So an aeropress, they sent that out. Basically, it's a French press, and I have the one that's like on the go. And it fits nicely into like a real small travel size.

And all you need is some water and some coffee grinds. And you got yourself some beautiful coffee with basically no like plastic or anything to harm the environment. I really actually liked that because I felt for a long time. I was being bad to the environment. You can recycle some of the pods, but it's a difficult process. All these things go on. And I think the French press is the best way to enjoy coffee. It's easy.

The cleanup is very minimal. I'm a big fan of actually I put my aeropress coffee into my baseball today mug because I'm a company man. Wow. Make sure, here's my piece of advice to you when you're doing the French press and you go grind your coffee. Like this is what I do. Okay. I go to Costco and I buy whole beans. And then you got to grind it up.

You just select like a course. You don't want fine coffee. You want a coarse grind. Four minutes. Let it steep. Press it down. It's like it's fun, dude. Pressing.

It's fun. I'm a barista. Go to Arrow Press. I don't know if they, I don't know if they just like that. I'd read it all. Go to arrowpress. Press.com slash talking. A. E.R. Press.com slash talking. promo code talking 20% off your order.

So you got all that from Trev. And my last note, the two guys that if they give their sign-off on it and John Boy Media, Trev, when it comes to coffee, at least. And behind the scenes, Bill. Yeah. BTS Bill, if he gives you a thumbs up on a product, that means it works. AeroPress.com slash talk and code talking 20% off. I mean, we just, yeah. Real quick, going back to the race. The guys that you thought were going to be the guys,

Randy Rosa Rana, got an 88 OPS plus. Jose Siri. Actually, I think, decent for him. He's coming. He's playing defense, all that good stuff. Yandi Diaz hasn't really been himself yet. And then Harold Ramirez, who was great last year, he gone.

He go. See you later. Jose Caballero. Kind of is who he is. He's a pest. But if these guys start to go, the razor coming. BBD,

do not look at Ben Roart vets numbers or tell the office. Because, God. They're still there. 120 OPS plus. And he can throw. Trev. Okay, that was actually,

we did a lot of bad there. I think what we do now, Jake, let me take this freaking episode over. Cook. You're hot. Aerobras.

I am so hot. Let's go with what we call our lone wolf, which is when we're the only ones that picked a certain thing. Let's go with our lone wolf correct. And I'll let you start. You have two. Pittsburgh and Texas. Why don't you talk about Pitt a little bit?

So Pittsburgh, for me, and there's some irony to it, they're over under was 72 and a half. They're currently on pace for 78. So there's a little bit of buffer there. And they're a little bit on the up and up, obviously Skeens Mania. Jared Jones Mania. Let's not forget him. Right.

But I'm going back to my thought process on it. And I, you know, Jared Jones hot and a stud. But I, you know, I think everyone was locked in on Skeens. And for me, I thought there was a few more options in the lineup to click. like Hank Davis, one-one pick. Like, were we going to be talking about him at mid-season? Nick Gonzalez, I can't give myself a ton of credit on that, but that guy's a real prospect, and he's been clicking for them for a while.

He's a stud. I think he's my favorite player on the Pirates. O'Neill Cruz is achieving. Like, I think there's more in there. He struggles versus lefties still, but the lineup hasn't been there. It's been a lot more pitching than I expected. That bullpen, I did think that was a part of it. it. And there's just been so much losing that Paul Skeens, if they were going to call him up this year,

which they had to. Like, Treve, you've now seen, there's people around the office saying that he's the best pitcher they've ever seen. I like a little bit of sample size. And, you know, it's hard to argue with the talent. But with what's going on in Pittsburgh, that was kind of my belief that something something was going to happen to them. What? Like, recency bias is such a real thing. The best picture we've ever seen.

I know. Like, look, this guy's a stud. I have come out and said he's like a legitimate, bonafide ace. Like, there's no doubt about it. You can't deny if this guy's a freaking animal. Best picture we've ever seen. Do people remember Justin freaking Verlander going off? Like, have they seen Garrett Cole

throw? Like, there are so many like incredible. Last night. Yeah, tough time. Last night. I didn't mean to bring it up like that. I don't give him credit. Last night, he let the grimace talk.

How about. So sick of grimace. Louise Heal, I mean, for two months. No, I'm just, I'm just saying he was as dominant as a young pitcher can be. And now, yeah. There's been so many incredible, I mean, Roy Holliday.

Like, go, just remember pitchers, please. Don't just say, like, the new guy, the moment's the best you've ever seen. Stop. be fair, the person saying that around the office is a clicky person. So, yeah, I don't think it's signed sealed delivered, but the pirates caught a little bit of juice, and I thought they might catch a little bit of juice. If the pirates don't add offensively, which they came out and said they're going to,

the owner literally said we're going to add, and we're going to do it sooner than later. I love that. Gosh, that's amazing to hear. Hope they do, because if you say that, you better do it. You better do it. this team has unlimited potential like I think they're

they have a very like good infield right now and it could get better like key Brian O'Neill Nick Gonzalez like that's those are that's a studly infield

right there that you got for a long time oh excuse me almost died right there June Brian Reynolds no joke himself That was tough. It's okay.

You saved it pretty good. I don't know. I like this team a lot, is all I'm saying. My other lone wolf that both lone wolves are on track to, they're not locks, but you can almost call them to a degree. The Texas Rangers, for me, and I should note in BPD's notes, it does say Jake already regrets this. For me, it was just the formula of,

I partially think there's a World Series hangover. We haven't seen any team repeat since those Dynasty Yankees, Trev. The other thing that didn't pass the sniff test was Corey Seger was so good last year. It's just tough to replicate that level of good, like to one dot as a lefty shortstop for 120 games. Everyone cuts to Gunner Henderson. But the other thing was,

Oh, there's Paul on the boat. There's the thighs. My God. Like, that's honestly, the first thing I thought of with this picture is look at those legs and not Livy Dunn's legs. That's a man right there. You don't care about her legs at all.

That should be an... Not at all. That should be an iconic... That's an iconic picture in Pittsburgh history. If your audio only, it's skein's and done, as I'm calling them. with the Pittsburgh Bridge in the background on a boat, beautiful day. That's everything you want.

She's absolutely smitten by him, and I'm smitten by those freaking trunks he's got. Those two should be so smitten with life right now. Are you kidding me? The Texas Rangers, the other thing that stood out to me was the two young guys in the middle of the lineup, Carter and Langford, who, I mean, the show Evan Carter put on, last postseason was just absolute loony tunes.

The show Langford put on in spring was loony tunes. But having young players carry your team is really tough. And then you had one or two injuries that they're over under was 89 and a half. They're on pace for 76 right now. So that one is almost a lock, even though the Rangers are starting to figure it out. But, yeah, I don't know. A little bit of luck, too, if we're being real.

I don't really know what I was thinking. There, 89 and a half. Obviously, coming off a World Series performance, and maybe I was banking on some of these young guys. Maybe I was buying the young guy cool. I mean, they have dealt with some injuries. Josh Jung hasn't been there pretty much all year long. We could see a resurgence year with Scherzer back.

He looked good in his first start, although he's already talking about, like, how am I going to recover? I have no idea. That's scary to hear if you're a Rangers fan. Don't love that. Don't love when you hear that. But he's being truthful.

I mean, if there's one thing Max Scherzer, he's not a bullshitter. He's just going to come on and say, what does he care? By the way, Max Scherzer also one of the best pictures I've ever seen. Right. Okay, like just relax, everybody. I'm kind of in on a late season resurgence for the Rangers, but I don't know if they're going to get to that 80 or that 90 win mark. For me, my lone wolves were Houston.

Long Wolf Corrects, excuse me, were Houston, Seattle, and Toronto will start in Houston. I had them under 92 and a half. I said they're going to be right at 91 or 92. They're on pace for 80 wins right now. But they're coming. They're coming. And I would not shock me one bit if they ended up winning the A.O. West. Right now we're kind of in a Seattle Mariners skid and a Houston

Astros rocket ship. I don't know about rocket ship. I couldn't skit. What's the opposite of skid? Climb. Climb. A little climb by the Astros. A creep.

A creep and a climb. So I had the under there. I feel pretty good about that one. I could see them being like an 86, 87 win team. Maybe 88 wins. Get some of the AOS ground. Could. So Seattle, I took the O.

over on them. And, I mean, they're like right on. It was 87 and a half. They're on pace to win 89 games. Same old song and dance in Seattle, basically. We're waiting on Julio to get going in the second half. The pitching's been otherworldly. We need some offense.

Add. Same old song and dance. Add. That pitching staff, it's the best in the big leagues. The starting pitching staff. So go, add. I don't even know, like, where are you going to get the offense? I don't know.

Go find it somewhere, please. Mariners are the first one that I've looked at, and I was like, oh, that could come off Trev's board and come over to me and Jammer. Don't say that. Then Toronto was my last one. I took the under 86 and a half, but I said, I think it's over, but that line is trap-ish.

It's a trap. So that was my gambling brain. because I thought they were could be much better like they have the potential to be that much better but it seemed trappish to me they're on pace to win 73.8 games I'll give them 74 games

I think they're gonna have a mini cell that's what I think I don't think Blad or Bo are gonna go anywhere Boba Shett they still have a year of control with him he's like all time low trade value right now he's hurt he's on the IL I don't think they're gonna trade Vladdy right now either because that was they trade Vladdy they're trading everybody

so a guy like Kakucci could go maybe some bullpen pieces he can go guys that are on one year deals I don't know if anybody would want a Kiermire to like kind of solidify their outfield defense but I feel like we see guys like that get traded quite often I think they're going to have a mini-sell and then re kind of

reconvene in the off season to see what they feel like in 2025 as they approach more of the serious deadlines with Vladi and Boba Shett so I feel pretty confident in that one If you get the package for Vlad, I think you have to punch it. Like, I don't, I guess here's what I don't know. Everything.

But what else I don't know is, like, how are those, have extension talks happened and where are we at? Because, you know, if it's in the realm and Vladdy's about it, like, okay, you know, what's that number look like? If it's not, its Toronto team hasn't done a lot. if you get a package for him and a lot of those pitchers, like you could fast track it. It's going to be a lot of money. Jake, he's only 25 years old. I know.

That's crazy. I know, but, you know, I don't know. 840 career OPS, 25 years old. Like, I know coming off, you know, 788 last year. He's like an 800 OPS guy. That's what I'm saying. He's not the one daughter that we saw. Not the one daughter we saw.

in 2021. He's a 800, maybe a low 800's OPS guy. What is that going to demand the agency? I don't know.

It's got to be, it's got to be, real money. 20? Real money. 25? Yeah. 30?

I think that could be 30. I would say 25. It's going to be real. It's going to be real money. This year, those. What am I talking about? I don't know. Age is always the important number,

and he still has that. Yeah, seems good Seattle. It's going to be more like 30 a year, Jake. Yeah. Again, whoever's paying him isn't going to be like, there's a next level there when he hits his fine.

Five for 150? I take a shower. The dark thoughts creep in. Then that shower ends with me saying, how rich is Kyle Tucker going to be? Because it is a number that is going to shock people in a couple years.

Abraham Lincoln mother effort. Jim currently has two lone wolves on the board. One looks like a lock and a half because the Chicago White Sox are on pace for 42 wins. I'll tell you what, I'm not going to re-listen to that because seeing us on the over,

I mean, it's just got to be pure, you know, young guys getting opportunities. It was 63 and a half games. It's a loan number. You can luck into some of those. I mean, we just said they're not going to be a hundred lost team. That's not crazy like we were on them to be a playoff team. Like I was in 2022, I took the over, didn't work out.

Yeah. 2023 I took the over. Didn't work out. 24 I took the over. This is like a bad relationship for me. I need to get out of it. I think I'm done. I'm finally putting that bad girl aside.

Get out of you. You're bad for me. Ooh. I'll still call you later. Will you answer? The other one that Jim has, That's currently... Don't send the text.

Don't send the text. Don't send the text. Don't send that text. No. The relationship advice. I had to send that to you this week. My phone's been on, on the rocks. What's that mean?

Your phone's just been betraying you. Yeah. Did you mean to text me or not? No, I sent to text to you. And literally right after I sent it, it didn't appear in the chat. And I was like, okay, not sure what that's about. Genuinely wanted to know if it's sent. Well, I'm just giving real relationship advice.

hey, if she doesn't respond to your text, don't send the second one. Hey, did you get that? Because she got it, obviously. What do you think, people? I'm going to counter and say, follow your heart. The Cincinnati Reds,

82 and a half is the over-under. Remember how awful of a start they got off to. They're trending somewhat the right way, but they need to start pulling off wins. They'd have to go 46 and 37, the rest of the. the way. It's in the realm. This is a team that had a hot streak last year. They kind of need that again.

They're getting some guys back. Noel V. Marte. McLean at some point. This is foolish baseball's team that's going to click in the second half? Yeah. I don't know. They've had a lot go wrong that it's made it easy to ignore. Well, again, tough day to compliment Hunter Green.

But Lidolo's been great. Hunter Green has been getting. Like, they've got the. they've gotten the pitching that you would have thought would get them over this. So we'll see. I mean, the Reds would have to cook a little bit, but they've shown some signs of life.

But Jim is sitting pretty there for now. Let's go to the ones that we were all together that we got right, because there's only four of them. So we're ending on a high note, hopefully. And it's brought to you by the Draft King Sportsbook. We've been talking a lot of over-unders. and Draft Kings is the place to go if you think you might be in it. If you had all of these nailed before the season,

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And we did our daily fantasy league every Tuesday. Go check that out. What do you got, Trev? I shot a 92 yesterday. It's been on my mind. Okay. Sorry. I wasn't fine in the fairway. All the par three is I was great. I hit my irons fine. Just couldn't find the fair with the driver. Tough. I mean, the worst feeling for me golfing is when you're making just bad contact and you're just like

Yeah. The second worst feeling is when you're just teeing it off to no man's land. So you're like, okay, so every hole I'm scrambling. Pretty much. That's where I was yesterday. And I realized, hey, I had been swinging a hockey stick for the last four days. Needed to get that out of my system a little bit. I'm just thinking about it.

It's all my counterpart shoot a 74. So that was tough for me. There's an argument I gripped the club too hard on and off the court. What's up? Trev, give our winner. here. Okay, I got them. So these are the ones we were all together on that are on pace.

Miami, this was an easy one for us. We didn't believe in them from the get-go. I thought the line was extremely high. 78 and a half. Look, we knew they were a playoff team the year before, but there were some injuries already. It just didn't look right on paper. We were all under on that. They're on

pace to win 57.4 games. That one looks like it's going to happen. They've been kind of a disaster. although I think they had a little bit of a hot streak as of late, but they sold the riser early on in the season. I expect them to continue to do that as well. So I don't know what they're going to do in Miami.

What are they going to do? What's the plan? Currently 23 games off pace. They also have seven starting pitchers on the IEL. So you can't really fault everything on just like the weird chemistry there. You know, the injuries have been a huge part of this. but yes, Jake. Trev, you know I don't like raising my hand.

I like when you raise your hand. I've never seen you raise your hand. Jacob, what's up? Get hitting. Okay? So for next year, when four out of seven of those pitchers come back and a couple guys say healthy this year,

you have some hitting. The Mariners are starting to bore us because they're the same. The Marlins have been the same. a decade? I think they kind of try, but it's been like, I think I've used this analogy on the show before, nobody knew the freak I was talking about.

Darya. Do you know the show Darya? It used to be on MTV. I do. The opening scene, she's on the volleyball court, and a ball goes by her, and then, like, three seconds afterwards, she puts her hand out like this to stop the ball.

Yes. Yes, Trev. If you haven't seen it, go check it out, that's the effort I've gotten from the Marlins. You're standing on my head. Taria. Daria had some moments.

Taria. Okay, great note, Trev. Thank you, you're welcome. That's our one under that we, I mean, that's locked. This one I'm the most proud of. Yeah. Milwaukee.

Yeah. 76 and a half. Raid Corbyn Burns. They'd graded a hater out of there. Devin Williams. I don't know if he... There it is. Wow.

Didn't think we'd have this today. That is your exact lane of humor. That's too good right there. I don't think Devin Williams was hurt at the time that we did this. I don't think he was. No. But 76 and a half games. I'm like, have you watched the Brewers play baseball in the last decade?

Like they just win. They figure out freaking ways to do it. They think they're smarter than everyone, and maybe they are. Maybe they freaking are. Counsel's out, but they got Murf dog in there. Maybe the greatest manager in baseball history. I'll say that. What about your recency by shut up?

They're on pace for 95 wins. They've just continued to figure it out. They're a need for some pitching help. Starting pitching depth is something they're going to have to go after, but they found the offense. Yelly's been a guy, a don't. Thomas has been a guy. A lot of people are saying,

no, you're going to trade a dollar not? No way. It's too important. Some of the young guys that really turned it on. Williams Contreras is the best player in baseball. I don't know. So they figured it out. They've played good defense.

They've just kind of done everything right. So I'm proud of this one. This was my lock. Yeah, if they finish 30 and 52 the rest of the way, they'll hit that over. So I'm feeling pretty good about that. Again, it's just been the fashion they've done it. Some of the offense from the Youngbloods.

I have a tweet that I said I think they are going to win. I'm more confident in them winning 90 games with this Corbyn Burns trade than I was if they didn't trade Corbyn. And when they hit 90 wins, that's going to be a banger for me. Can't wait. That's going to be awesome, dude. Speaking of awesome, I guess I can lead off with this, the New York Yankees. That coming off of a bad season, they did make some significant moves in the off season. They're over under was 88 and a half, even after a tough couple weeks.

They're on pace for a 104 burger. So you can almost call it. I mean, the Yanks are going to probably land in the 90s. I'm glad you had tilted because I didn't want to after what I've seen on Yankees' Twitter the past couple days and I've been a part of it. Yankees X.

Yes, you have. Yes, you have. 37 and 44. Don't get me started. That's only seven games under. Don't get me started. I believe in this Yankees team. You guys need to like have some confidence in your guys.

And like we said in the notes, they're two all in on 2024 to not go and make some moves. Yes. that I obviously feel good about that over-under. And though they're going to do something trade-wise. And they have the big, like the big things are kind of figured out. Like when you got Judge and Soto, when you've got the guys in their rotation, like, okay,

it's increasing on the margins. And then Trev, I mean, your fingerprints are all over this. last one. The last one that we all agreed on and we are looking real good on it is the Philadelphia Phillies. The over under was 90.5. We all took the over.

They're on pace for 106.6 wins. Pretty much like the same reason that we took the Yankees. They're just, they're all in right now. I love the collection of players they have on their roster. I believe I haven't picked to win the World Series this year. I have to go back and check that.

I think that's what I have. they've put together a very strong roster, and the starting pitching has been better than we could have imagined. Ranger Suarez and Wheeler and Christopher Sanchez, that Alien 6-6-6 dude. Spencer Turnbull is kind of back in the rotation now. He had a great start, then got bumped for Taiwan Walker,

but now Taiwan Walker's on the IL, so he's back in. Aranola's been Aranola. They have a great team. They've constructed a great roster, and I expect them to, again, make moves and improve. And they're a force. They're a force.

Good vibes, good everything. And for anyone who's not in the sports gambling world, sign up with draft kings, but also, like, I don't know if you're sitting there, because we've obviously added a lot of baseball convos to this, but if you're like, oh, okay, these guys had the Phillies being good, good stuff. 90 and a half wins, the Phillies hadn't done that since 2011. So we're talking 13 years. This Philly's team with the Braves in the division, you know, they've been the wild card guy.

So for them to get off to the start they have, and Trev, this has always been a manager's podcast, how about Rob Thompson? Like, I know we've done it, but this is a guy that kind of thought that managing a team had passed him by. Like baseball lifer, the dream bench coach, like good guy, beloved, all of that stuff. he falls in with this team, which remember where they were at with Gerardi? Like, things were sour. He's taken over, and his career record as a manager, 207 and 145. They have the best record in baseball this year.

The whole Philly story is still pretty sick, man, and good for Rob Thompson. Quickly, I want to go over the teams that we didn't talk about. There's not that many. the Atlanta Braves I don't think we talked about you and I went under is 101 and a half was the over under

we both said like 100 wins you said 101 um they're cooking a little bit they are on a 91 win pace so you and I will be right there I just felt like that the 100 whenever the line gets to 100

I'm like dang that's like just so many wins it's one really it's an injury away or a bad streak away from not getting there So that one looks good for you and I. And then the Dodgers, we didn't talk about 103 and a half. I went under. Jimmy went under.

And then you said, screw it, I'll go over. They're on pace to win a hundred games. So that's kind of right in that gray area. We don't really know how that's going to turn out. I mean, clearly we know they're a juggernaut team. But my thought process was like, well, they might like kind of coast into this thing. I've got a dumb question. They kind of have coasted a little bit.

I was going to say, have we seen them go yet? Like, have we sat down and been like the Dodgers have won 12 out of 13? It feels like no. I'm sure they've gone on a mini run, but yeah. I'm obviously forgetting one stretch, but it feels like we haven't had that yet. So I'm, I mean, 103's a ton, but I'm not chalking this up as an L just yet.

Yeah, they're an interesting team because I think that, I think they are going to make smooths. I think they do have some holes in their roster. I think they can make some improvements on an already, like, really, really good team. So kind of love that for them. They've had some injuries at pitching staff. And then my twins, 86 and a half wins. You and I went over.

Jimmy went under. You said it was going to be 87 wins. You believe in Julian and Lewis. And I said, over if they make a move, they didn't. Well, they haven't made a move yet. but they are on pace for 88 wins Julian is in the minor leagues right now and that was a guy who I thought was going to be an all-star and he struggled

he struggled with breaking pitches so I don't know when he's going to come up again dude they got this guy Brooks Lee they really like they're moving him like they might bring him up to play a second base I'd expect Julian to be back up at some point he really hasn't done great since being sent down that's going to be an interesting one. I don't think they're going to make a big move.

I think they might do the reinforcements from AAA type thing, possibly go get. I don't even know what they would get. I don't know. I don't think they're going to make a move for like a starting pitcher. I don't think they're going to make it. They don't need bullpen pieces. They have a great bullpen.

I don't know, man. So I have the over, you have the over. It's on pace, barely. And then the other team, there was one more that I was looking that we didn't talk about at all. The Mets? Did we do the Mets? We didn't do the Mets.

82 and a half, Jimmy had the over. We both had the under there. Trending up. They're on pace for 80. They're on pace for 80 games and they're going. And they've had, yeah, I mean, they've been hitting the ball. Yeah, they've been banging the ball. Not just because they hit four off a cold last night,

but over the last month, I believe they're like a top three offensive baseball. Yeah, you can go position by position in that Mets lineup and be like, okay, so wait, their catcher can hit first base can hit second short mark viento's hot boy like i think he might be in my hot boy list you're i i tried to allude to this last episode you're a viento's guy yeah he's like he's got a little pimp to his game but he's not trying to show anyone up but he's kind of just the guy yeah where's his ops right now in the nines like um yeah no i and i i think probably to to close this up a little

925 OPS from Viantos. Last team we didn't talk about. Who do you got? Baltimore Royals. And the Rockies. I don't think we talked about the Rockies, but 90-and-a-half wins. They went 101 games. You bring it down to 90-5.

My thought process was like, that's an easy over. They got a collection of talent. They haven't even called up yet. Jimmy says, under, but I don't believe in this under. I think he was playing the numbers game a little bit. convincing them. They're on pace for 100 wins. Again.

On pace for a hundo again. And that's after, what do they have, an L5 right now? First time they've done that with Adley. And they're on pace for 100 after losing five in a row. So they're going to straighten out that ship. Hey, if you're Gunner Henderson. Yeah. And, you know, it talked about everybody else except you,

like Adley, Ray. Oh, this guy Jackson holidays coming up. he's going to be incredible. And you're like, I'm Gunner Henderson, bro. Like, I'm a guy. Now it's, now I think it's Gunner Henderson and the boys. I mean, it is.

That feels good. Is he on pace? Is he on pace for the biggest contract in MLB history? He's got the highest war. I believe he's like somewhere like 5.4 baseball reference war at the midpoint of the season, bro. We haven't seen some of that. I think since Mookie Betts did it in 2018.

or something. He had a 10 more season. This guy's watching play and you know that's a ball player. That is a guy we're going to be talking about for years, dude. Like HOF type player. Like he's a fucking menace.

He'll have half a bill coming his way at some point. And so will we, when all of our current losing picks flip, Hey, thank you guys. Mid-season checking a bit. Trev? I'm on pace for 15, right.

You're on pace for 11, right? Jimmy on pace for 9, right. We suck. There'll be some flips. There's going to be a lot of flip. It's the game. We still got to play half the season. Oh, yeah.

I forgot about those. Your team's about to have a big second half. Which wins, yeah. Royce. I believe.