Talkin' Baseball (MLB Podcast) - Miami Marlins | Profile & Projection | 611

Episode Date: February 25, 2023

Use code TALKIN for $20 off your first SeatGeek order. https://seatgeek.onelink.me/RrnK/TALKINThe Miami Marlins sure can pitch and they added Luis Arraez to the squad. Will they be able to make a run in a TOUGH NL East? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Otoboodle, bo, bo, bo, da, da, da, da. Those are making the bottom feeders? Good thing. Oh, and welcome to talking baseball. It's another team profile and projection as we continue on with an episode of day, every day until opening day. We're talking about the Miami Marlins. You guys voted them the 22nd best team in MLB, if my math's right, the eighth worst team, not us.

You guys did. If you're a Marlins fan, you know more. 23rd. You know more about them than we do. So let us know what we're missing and what everyone can search of comments and see what we left out. But Jake, they did make some noise this offseason. They did make some noise.

And these TPPs are brought to you by, Seat Geek, code talking $20 off your first order with Seat Geek. They've been in the mix, and they always make some noise in the off season because they've got a lot of pitching, but they got rid of one of them this year. Pablo Lopez out, Luis Arayes in from Trevor Ploos twins, along with Gene Seguera and Johnny Quedo. So swag through the roof. J.T. Shags came over in a trade with the Reyes.

Treb knows him. that's nice. Also who they lost. They lost Miggi Roe. I don't know, man. I know who that guy is. I don't love that for the clubhouse. Elisa Hernandez, he went to Los Metz in division.

Brian Anderson, I forget if I mentioned him, but he was kind of a cornerstone piece for the fish for a little bit. He gone. A couple other bodies, but, you know, I think as Marlins' offseason goes, you know, couple guys coming in that excites you. What does it mean in the East? is it enough for that Marlin's lineup? I don't know what to say about this lineup

because if you look at the stats last year, they were not good offensively, but I'm looking at the lineup, and I, you know what I like to say this. I can dream upon this lineup just a little bit, okay? Yes, they brought in a rise for my twins. You know what he's going to do. He's going to hit for average.

He's going to put the ball in play. They brought another guy kind of similar. Gene Segura. He knows that a hit. Haley playing third base. Jazz Chisholm, who can be an all-world talent seemingly moving out to center field. He wants to win the gold glove. I'm not going to say you can't do it because Jazz is definitely an athlete. Garrett Cooper at first base. And these are two guys who I think a lot of this offense is going to be banking on them to have bounced back years and power, specifically

Avesaio Garcia and Jorge Soler. They need to do it. Brian De LaCruz on left field, Joey Wendell, our guy. He likes to step on thumb tax. That's what we've been hearing. No batting gloves. He's a shortstop right now. And then Jacob Stallings at catcher on the bench, John Bertie, Nick Fortis, Jordan, Groschons, and Hazus Sanchez. So like I said, you can dream upon it a little bit, but we're going to need some guys to really, really step up. But here, I'll let you do this, James, I think is obviously the strength of this team. Tell me about that rotation. They got some arms. They got Sandy Alcon, he won the Sai Young.

He led the league innings pitched. He's really good. They got Johnny Quato had a good year last year, helped out some teams, comes here to be a little leader and mentor, and it allowed them to trade some guys. Hey, Zeus Lazzardo, Lizard King, Edward Cabrera, Trevor Rogers.

They got Braxton Garrett. They got a lot of prospects and arms down in AAA that could come up. And then they got bullpen. They got Dick Blyer, my guy. Mm-hmm. Yep. You're always saying that. Dylan Floro.

I think I did a breakdown on Blyer, and he responded and said, like, yep, that was it. So I like him now. Oh, I meant dick. Danner, Daner, Danor got J.T. Shargwa. If you haven't been listening to us in the offseason, I do have a J theory with the Marlins. They kind of have just like so many J names. And it seems like on purpose, they traded away some non-J names, brought in some J names.

I got Gene Jazz. Jorge, Joey, Jacob, John, Jordan, Jesus, Johnny, Jesus, J.T. It's just a lot. It's in your face. There's a lot going on.

I think there's a world where this team finishes slightly above 500. Okay. I think. What's that path? That the shift rules are taken advantage of by their contact lineup.

They are trying to do bat to ball in a lot of places. You have a couple people who can hit for average and who are known to hit for average. And then you have some people who, when going well, can get up there. You have obviously a rise to get 316 last year. Gene Segorah hit 277. in last year. Garrett Cooper hit 261 last year in his limited role. He can punch the ball and find gaps.

I think you're looking for a little more from jazz. And I think you need Solar and Jazz to provide some pop. Maybe Avicel Garcia provides some pop. He didn't provide anything last year. Does he have that in his bag? Didn't he once at one point of the... He can slug a little bit. Yeah, yeah.

get a 40 homer season. He had a 490 slugging in 2021, 464 in 2019, 506 in 2017. So he's older now. I do that pop. So, yeah, everything has to go right. Like my high end ceiling is like 85 wins, I think. Okay.

Okay. But that's high, high end ceiling. I mean, that's not probably where I land if we go over under, not banking that. But I do think there's somewhat of a strategy they're trying to implement. And if these guys can punch the ball and find the holes, then you're there because they have the pitching. If you have the pitching, like the Guardians,

and then you have some momentum, some luck, some timeliness, you can see this team do a little bit version of what the Guardians did last year. Not in wins. That was... What did the Guardians even win last year? 86 games or something like that? They won 90-some games because they play in a bad division. Of course.

Well, that's what hurts this team, the division they play. Well, this is why I named them my Dark Horse World Series team last year because they have pitching, and usually that's the start of it. I think, like, the Guardians were what I thought the Marlins could be. They just didn't hit at all. And if you talked to Chris Rose, he always mentioned, he watched a lot of these games last year because of Miggie Rojas, and he said, man, like every game, they just couldn't push across runs.

And it's part of the game that you've got. got to be better at. Hopefully they can do that. They have pitching in space. Their number one prospect guys, guess who he is? A pitcher. He's 19 years old. Yuri Perez. He is 6-8. So, like, they have pitching for days. Max Meyer,

who was one of their top picks, he's hurt this year. Sixto Sanchez is hurt. Like, they have so much depth. They have to turn that depth into two things. either fucking victories or pieces that can help them finally get victories, whether that's next year or two years down the road. Not many times do teams have this much starting pitching depth? And we all know the most coveted thing in sports is starting pitching or in baseball

is starting pitching. They have to find some way to convert this depth into victories, whether it's this year or two years down the road because you, you, you, you, you're not going to get this again. I mean, do you guys ever remember? You guys are Yankees fans. When have the Yankees ever had, like, pitching debt like this? The twins surely never have had that.

And, like, they have to capitalize on this. They tried to recently sending Pablo and getting Luis Arise. I like that move. But, you know, they need to figure it out offensively. They need a hit in every aspect. And I think that's why they went out and got a guy who hits the ball every single day in our eyes. because, man, they were 28th in slugging.

I think they were 28th in the 27th in OPS. They were 28th in batting averages did not hit. And it's like the story of this team, man, and that's where Jim, what I can give to help your spin zone is Jazz Chisholm got hurt last year. He only played 60 games. So if you can get a full run of Jazz Chisholm and he can take another step up,

he's projected to be a 25 and 25 guy. Like those don't grow on trees. And he told us he's going to win the gold glove in center field. So that's huge. They added Gene. They added a rise, which is like you're saying, a lot of contact hitting that if that can lead to rallies and Jazz Chisholm can hit two and three run homers,

hey, you know, sign me up a little bit. I just think the problem is it's not enough. And that division is, brutal. The Phillies who went to the World Series, they won 87 games last year in the regular season, and they added. The Mets, like, you know, they had, we have two, two teams we picked as winners of the offseason are above them. A Marlins team that won 69 games last year. And the other team is the Atlanta Braves, who are two years removed from a World Series in this, like, depth of baseball talent that we almost don't understand.

The Marlins are such a victim of their division. I feel like if they were a central team, would we be talking about them trying to backdoor their way into a wild card or something? I think we could be. Because you're right, if everything does click, it could be fun, especially with that high end starting pitching.

I mean, if Sandy does it again, which my God, he's gonna. I mean, that dude is a freak show. And then, you know, baby Jesus came over and was fine for them. Trevor Rogers had that big rookie year. If one of them goes, you're talking about a good rotation, but man, they're just coming up against the big dogs. It seems day in, day out, but hey, balance schedule, right?

So maybe they do stumble into a couple more. But it's tough for me to see them get into five hundred. If they were in the central, what do you like about them? How would you differ them? say they were in the Central instead of... Where are we trading? The Reds and the Reds and Marlins switchbots.

How do you like the Marlins compared to the Central? Like I think Marlins and Cubs would probably be like a big debate for like a low 80 win team, something like that. Yeah, I think so. I think I have the Cubs ahead.

I think our audience got it right, but I think they're more there. I just pitching can get you places. If you give them any hitting, which they didn't last year. And that's what they're trying to. trying to do. I mean, they bring it in guys. Because, you know, average isn't a good standalone stat for much or anything at all. But I do, what I like about batting average is it tells you

that a guy is consistent. Like week in, week out, series in, series out. He's going to hit. And that's what they're trying to do because they're getting consistent pitching. So Gene Seguera arise and then you just got to get pop at some point because you got to drive him in. Maybe they just steal a ton. I don't know. Cause havoc. Get an identity. Second and steals last year, John Birdie.

John. Hmm. John Birdie. I have an affinity. John Bird is a cool name, but it's very close to Jake Bird. It's not. No. It's not.

It's a J name. Birdie and Bird? John and Jake. Birds aren't real, so it doesn't even register around my mind. Let's talk about a special. different name Trevor. I always have an affinity for guys named Trevor. And Trevor Rogers is an interesting story

because you have that rookie year where guys just didn't hit him. And he has this foreseen fastball. I got an article pulled up here from Roto Baller. In that season, batters hit 222 with a 305 Wobah and just two homers against his four-scene fastball. And then all of a sudden last year

There's a 312 with a 401 well, but an 11 homers against the four scene fastball. So whether that's an arm angle thing or whether that's a tip thing, like something has to be fixed there. Then you add him to the mix. And it's just they have the pitching, even without Rogers kind of like being who he was his rookie year,

but if he can make a mechanical adjustment, we're talking about probably one of the better rotations in all the baseball. And we, we, how we've done seven of these before, we couldn't say anything close to that. about any of those teams. Now we're here with the Marlins. I mean, you can make an argument that they have probably, you know,

in the top five starting pitching depth in all the baseball, at least the top five. That's nice. I'm being nice. So Laren and Jazz getting full seasons would be nice. They both got hurt halfway through. And I mean, hey, if we're trying to put some good fuel on the file, fire even. No, let's fuel the files.

Field of Files. Same thing. Avicale Garcia, he's been in every other year. OPS plus OPS, OPS, above and under 100. So 138, 95, 112, 78, 119 last year, 65. So maybe he's in line for his best season ever, you know? Could be. So we got Marlins' offense spins.

Does Jazz Chisholm end up a gold glove finalist in center field? He gets one vote. He'll be a finalist because MLB likes putting out the graphic that kind of doesn't matter. Yeah. When they give like seven finalists and there's only eight candidates due to qualified games. We think about center field being this like bangor of a position

but it really has been, especially offensively, but defensively there's still some fucking guys that can go out and get it. So if offense is factored into the goal glove like it used to be, then I give Jazz a better chance. but I don't think it used to be well no not like officially but that's why you know didn't Derek Jeter win gold gloves yeah but he was pretty good besides DRS which is a human that watches plays back I think if you go back and look at the gold glove uh winners a lot of them were very

offensively minded as well that's been a talk around baseball for a long time I think you had to like be a name yeah name hit 30 homers winning gold glove that's got rolling Um, jazz, for your situation, 85 or, you know, competing for a wild card, I think Jazz Chisholm would have to be an MVP candidate, which maybe he has a talent for. Um, you know, he showed it in a small sample last year, 60 games with 14 homers and 12 swipes. They'd have to get no injuries and everyone have to, like, you know. I think Jazz would have to be a legit MVP guy, which maybe he can be. Rise and Seguro would also have to be bang out as well. So Lair has an opt-out after this year.

So, like, is that motivating for him? Is he going to come in and go off? You've seen that all throughout baseball. That happens, man. You get laser-focused when you know that there's some extra incentive there for you at the end of the year. So that would be a welcome site for Marlins fans for sure. I think the slug is big for them.

Like, you got to be able to drive in runs. And what drives and runs is extra base hits. got to get better on that front for that marlins i think that's no secret do you think jake and trev do you think they're playing joey wendell at shortstop because they want to up his trade value he's a free agent after the year you know you let him play a month of shortstop get him on the books and then uh then you play him a month that third and second and then you're like look at this guy you need a utility guy you need a left a utility guy for the postseason tough as nails tough as nails brothers used to beat him up and then everyone signs him

sign him? No, we're talking about trade. Okay, I'll trade him. We'll see. Okay, we'll see. I think I think Bertie can play some shorts up. Joey Wendell, maybe they're going to have a little righty, lefty platoon in there. They'll have speed days and contact days. I don't know. I mean, I'm just

I'm sowing on the Braves, I'm sowing on the Mets, I'm sowing on the Phillies that I feel like I can only be so much in on the Marlins. So I guess I'm really not. What's their over-under? Yeah, it's just a circumstance of their environment.

Over-under looks like it is 72 and a half. Prospect Jacob Amaya. Jacob. Amaya might get the call this year. I was just about to mention him. Maybe that's a... Joy Wendell's a stopgap for him to come up, I guess. Possibly.

You guys are being... I mean... It's a J name. Joey can slip somewhere else. Versatile. What's how you spell Amaya? AMA-Y-A. Oh, too many Jacobs in MLB right now, I got to tell you.

Okay. And he was drafted by the Dodgers. So automatically gets a little bump up from us. Seven current MLB players that go by Jake? One, two, three, four, five, six, seven that go by Jacob. Holy smokes. This guy, Amaya comes up. Amaya my desire.

So they got back for Miggie. 72 and a half is the over under. Did you already answer that, Jake? He's going under. I have not. Oh, man, they got Jake Elder as a prospect, as well as Jose Salas. So J's, the Jays.

And Jordan Groshawns, I think we might have mentioned to him. That's another J. These guys. Well, they're not fooling us, James. How about that? They're not fooling us of this conspiracy. Wait, this Jake's different than one you said. This is Jacob Berry.

I think I'm going to go I think I'm going to surprise myself a little bit and do a slide over I think you know East playing less East East playing less yeast I believe in some of the stuff they're doing

not all of it I don't think it's over by a lot I think it's a 73 or 74 but I think the NL East will show their feathers a little bit and I think I might have an NL East team taking a step back wins wise. Oh, wow. But, uh, sure.

Fish, take your slide over. Take your slide over. Damn, man. I'm a J. I'll ride with them. Yeah. Well, John Mee-Media is a J-company too. Who?

People don't, don't realize that. They got so many Jakes in their system. They got, look at their minor league system. Jake Walters. Jake Eater. Jake up this. Jake up that. I'm over it.

It's a lot of concerns. conspiracy anymore if it's true. Jacob Barry, Jacob. Oh, there's tons of Jays. It's 71? 72 and a half. I'm taking the over, James. I think that I'm a believer in this pitching.

Wow. You were in a vice. Yeah, because I don't know how they're going to handle the deadline and stuff. Avi, gone. So, Lair, gone. No. Brian Reynolds to Miami, as reported by Trevor. earlier.

I did say that, didn't it? How many did they win last year? They won 68? Over. They got better. They won 69 games last year. So they have to improve by four games. I think they did it.

I think they got more offense. And if they're not injured, you have to, you know, you can't predict maybe one injury, but if Soler, Jazz, Arise, Jean can help out. They should be able to bump up from last year. So I'm taking the over. Wow, I think it's the first one we all agreed on

We all swept at the first one is the fish No way If Cole Tucker makes the roster You're all over on the Rockies Travel and Nats, that's right All under on Detroit All under on the Reds Oh, I'm an idiot

Yeah, I thought we agreed on a lot This team stink Not the Marlins Thanks for listening I think we're getting to a different tier With the Marlins and the other teams Yeah, I think this was the first like little step up. You know how some

staircases the first step is just to level out the stairs before you really ascend? It's like a half step just like find balance. It's just But the stairs begin. Yeah, the stairs have begun. Buying a little bit of Brian De LaCruz stock. Well, yeah, he played well last year. BDLC. Okay. Where are you getting that from? What stock?

Stock, stock. Come on, JJ Bladay. This is your team. We forgot to mention John Jay first baseball. Hi. Hi.