Talkin' Baseball (MLB Podcast) - Our Favorite Picks for the 2025 MLB Season!

Episode Date: March 24, 2025

Download the DraftKings Sportsbook app and use promo code TALKINGo to http://shadyrays.com and use code TALKIN for 35% off polarized sunglassesUse code TALKIN2025 for 10% off your next SeatGeek order*: https://seatgeek.onelink.me/RrnK/TALKIN2025. Sponsored by SeatGeek. *Restrictions apply. Max $20 discountJake and Trevor are joined by Jomboy to go over some of their FAVORITE bets for the 2025 MLB season! What sort of bets are your favorite and who are you putting your money on this year?!  Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Hello and welcome to Talking Baseball. There's baseball played this week, and that means we get a Talking Baseball historic episode. It's the betting app. Get ready. John's here. Let's talk ball. Mason Miller.

I don't know. Blitzball. Yeah, nice, Treff. Nice. Hello and welcome to Talking Baseball presented to you by Seat Geek. We are here, people. March 24th? Wow.

We, you'll hear it in all of our voices. Me, Jim, Trev, and Rob Sharaka. We're just in our warehouse all weekend, yelling our faces off. So there's a little bit of that in our voices as we get ready for this first week of the baseball season. And we're coming to you with one of our fun ones. Even if you're not locked in to the gambling world, it's just this has become a fun every year episode. To kind of sneak out a couple of our opinions through betting. might as well win you some money on the way because that's what we do.

I am with ball knower numero dose. Jimmy O'Brien is in the studio. Hello. How are you? I'm good. I'm ready to make some bets. I decided to do half research. Okay.

Sometimes I put a lot of thought into these. And I didn't do great last year. And the last year was one of the times I put a lot of thought. So I said, I'm not going to do any thought. And then on the train ride, I was like, I'll do some thought. A little thought. thought. Yeah.

Little thought. Speaking of Trevor Plouffe. Speaking of what, Jake? Well thought. I actually put a lot of thought into mine, but you know, I'm such a positive guy. That's where I kind of go wrong in these. I don't know if we have the graphic up, but I, um, I did not do great last year. None of us did particularly well, but none of us did as bad as you did.

I did the worst. Oh, God. No, no, no, no, no, no, no. Oh, God. I got one right. Uh, he did get one right, but that's, yeah, I got. Yeah, this is wrong by the. Thank you.

It just wasn't. It just wasn't part of the graphic. I think over Ellie Daylor Cruz hits 127 and a half, got that right. But everything else I did miss on. Bobby Miller, no, Kyle Schwerber hit 104 RBI last year. So he went over. Esre Ruiz is the, that's like a conspiracy theory. He wore like the last dive bar bracelet.

And then they sent him out and he just like never played in the big league. So that's that wasn't on me necessarily. That's more of, uh, you know. in the Oakland A's thing. Sprinkle shouldn't be on the graphic if we're being honest. That's a bet you're not supposed to get right. I think that's a once in 10 years.

It should be like it's separate column only if you got it right like you get. Yeah. Or maybe not like a huge red X just like here's what our sprinkle was and like a little one. Wonder if we have the old sheets because we've all gotten sprinkles right. That's just the cool thing because we're so smart. That would have me, John and BBD from last year.

sitting where you'd want to be, two out of three. A sprinkle. That's crazy. I was going to go. I was calling you. And BBD. Yes, us three. I was calling you a little thought, T-H-O-T.

I'm excited to get into it. It was two out of four last year. I'm just putting that out there. Happy for you. Let's dive in. Excited yuck some balls with the fellows. We are going to be live streaming on Thursday. All the games started at 3 p.m.

I think we're. trying to go through three till eight. We'll see some of our West Coast kids. Maybe we'll keep the stream going. But we're here, people. And there's no one o'clock games? No. Why not put the Marlins and the Pirates at one

when it's Skeens Alcantara? Anyways, you can go. If you're not going to be with us, go to the stadium. Actually, you can stream at the stadium, so that's good. But get tickets with seat geek. It's here, people. The baseball season is here. Go and see the stars of the stadiums.

the game. Go and root for our bets. Go root against our bets. Um, it's time. And with code talking 2025, get 10% off any tickets with code talking 2025. Whether you've used a code or not, whether you have the app or not, you're saving 10% on tickets of something you're going to go to. So this is, this is a no-brainer, kind of like a lot of what we're about to tell you. Seat geek there, the geeks of seats. That means they know what they're doing. doing green means good red means bad boom you can fully operate the app talking 2025 10% off your next tickets at seekiekeek that's talking 2025 10% off any tickets Jim do you want to tell the trev you don't know this yet I think me and jimmy are thrown out a bonus square um that's just

you know draft kings has gotten really good with these lines they've gotten better through the years yeah they've missed one I well at first I have I want to to fluff Jake a little and I have data that look draftings used to be way worse at when they first started we were crushed we've exposed in 2020 I went five for five Jake went four for five we both got our uh lock we all got our lock in 2020 trev you went you got your lock you went two for four and you pushed on one you're giving yourself credit for pushing, I think. Last year, Jake went three for three.

Didn't get his sprinkle, but he went three for three. No, in 2020, and then last year you went two for three. So it's gotten harder, but you're still doing good. It's very little thinking. That's my approach to a lot of things that I look for the line that speaks to me. I'll tell you what, I know there's going to be some batting average conversation. It was so funny, like looking at the individual player line. and just how much we don't think about batting average.

Like I saw Bryce Harper's line for batting average and it was 280. And I was like, Bryce have that kind of batting average. And I was like, shoot, he does. And then you look at other players like jazz was 250. And I was like, in my head, jazz is a 280 batting average guy. 250 is great nowadays. Like 250 batting average. As long as you slug a little bit, that is all you need.

Give him what popped up, Jim. We didn't get our locks last year. So we need to get our locks, Trev. Okay. Raise let me down. What popped up. Let me go to my betting slips because I just bet a bunch. But this popped up.

It's, it's, Trevor, you'll see why this is, I don't want to say illegal. It's a race to 10 wins. So which team? Oh, I got this one too on my sheet.

You guys are kidding me? Oh, yeah. Because we're telling the world. Tell the whole world. Oh, you want this to count for you? I looked at this.

I looked at this. But this particular team is playing two pretty good teams to start out the year as well. Doesn't matter already. I know that. I have it on my sheet. They've already won two games. It's plus 195. Is that what it is?

Okay. Oh, I think we've already lowered the line. I got it at plus 220. Plus 220 is what I have it at. I got it at 195. Okay. Dodgers first to 10 wins is plus 220. That's ours is better.

I bad. I also bet the Dodgers to win the National League in the division. Okay. I got it at 220. Okay. That's, here's a thing. Race to 10 wins. I don't know if we've said that yet.

They've already won two. They've already up to two. They do start on Thursday, but they do start scoble and the Tigers, which you know. Right. Then they go to the, then the Braves come into town.

It's interesting. I like that one too. Plus money on a team that's already up two wins on everybody else is. No other team's odds were under a thousand. Yeah. The Dodgers plus 220, everyone else over a thousand. Also, so many teams don't play. play on Friday.

The Dodgers don't play on Sunday. Yeah, that's weird. But the Dodgers do. So they have more time and they already have a head start. Their bullpens like reset after winning two games? I don't know. That just- Ben Casperius is a thing.

They didn't need that. Yukon, baby. Okay, so that's a freebie for everyone out there. Go check that out. If you can get it on the drafting sports book, Dodgers plus 221st to 10 wins. Yes. That's a freebie. Do we want to start?

We should start positive. We should start with some overs. Uh, yeah, yeah, yeah. Please. I have an over. It's plus 275. Whoa. Yeah.

So in your faces. Okay. That is off the freaking rip, huh? Soft. Yeah. Yeah. And this is, um, pal. It's not my lock.

No. I'm playing the stadium game. You know I love it. Love it. Oh. Brandon Lough to hit 30 homers. Oh. Because you're going Tampa.

They're playing outdoors. It's hot. That ball's flying. That minor league stadium, it's got Yankee Stadium short porch. So he's got that going for him with an even bigger wind stream because there's no third deck. So when the wind is blowing that way, like in spring training, some of the home runs that go out of that's there are like they're portchier than even porches. Wow, race fans can't say like porch shit because they're going to benefit from it as well. that's awesome plus 275 is 30 homers yeah over yes 30 3 1 I think it's 30 plus right 30 plus oh yeah 30 counts

yeah yeah so the only thing I'll say to that is the Florida State League which is basically what the race we playing in is notoriously one of the worst power leagues in all the minor league baseball because it gets really humid and hot and muggy and it rains every single day. But I understand what you're saying because B-B-Low's a guy. But in the summer, or they're going elsewhere. Where are they going? They change your schedule so they avoid the rain. So they're only playing early and late there?

Is that what you're saying? I believe so. Okay. I don't mind it. They have a funky schedule. But I mean, well, you got the distance and then you got more wind to blow balls both But it does go out to right pretty easily sometimes there. And a lefty.

That's why I hunted it. That was my, I needed some logic. And that's what I am giving you guys. He's hit 24 and 24 or 21 and 21. So it's a big boost. It's a boost. But he's also 30 years old now. So he's got more muscle.

That's how that works. You should have seen me at 29. I was, I was. It's true. He was crazy. Yoked up, yeah. Yeah. Yeah, okay.

Kind of wants to get traded. Yeah. as a team option for next year. Which you're over, minus 110. Trev? I have so many overs. I kind of want to give them all. I want to parlay them.

I'll just give my favorite right now. Let me give two. Okay. Great. Because you've been hot. I'm giving two unders. That's fair. Okay.

I'll double up. I'm going Pete Alonzo over 100 RBI. It is minus 120. The reason I'm doing that is because who's he hitting behind? a guy that gets on base at a 420 clip Juan Soto Pete has hit over 100

or had over 100 runs driven in multiple times in his career he's a career 971 OPS with runners in scoring position they are going to be in scoring position a lot with Lindor and Soto in front of him I mean I would look at

I would look at Pete Alonzo again this is over 100 RBIs or 100 plus minus 120 I look at him and Nemo and Vientos and see kind of where all their numbers. Well, I think Viantos is pretty high. So I went with the guy directly behind Juan Soto. Seems like a pretty good bet for Pete to have a ton of opportunity there.

And he's trying to, I guess, reestablish value on the one-year deal. So Pete Alonzo, 100 RBI is minus 120. I like it. It feels like there's some value be found, whether it's Pete or I know Jimmy was looking for Ron Sotom. scored. Yeah, man. I mean, Pete in a follow-up contract year with Juan Soto in front of them.

And Pete plays every day, man. Yes. Aaron Judge hit 144 last year. Pete's done it. Pete's done it one, two, three times. 131 and 22, 118 and 2023. 88 last year, coach. Yeah, but no Juan Soto.

No one. I like it. Okay. Can I give my other one? Knock yourself out. Because this one's fun. You guys are going to like this one a lot. Okay.

I think you might have seen it floating around the internet a little bit. I haven't. You might have, actually, James. This is something that you would, like, be totally in on. Do you guys remember Chris Davis with the K? Yeah. Crush Davis, yes. 247.

What did he used to hit every single year? Do you guys have that? 247. That's first time ever called into a radio show, Bay Area Radio Show. Okay. 247, 247. You know who's done that? the last three years.

You guys haven't seen this on the internet? Jake Berger has hit 250 on the dot for the last three years. You can get Jake Berger over 240 at minus 1.25. It's a good one, Joe. Three years in a row on the dot 250. You're giving me 10 points wiggle room. Plus, he was doing that in what, Chicago in Miami. He is now in the range.

lineup. So more runners on base. Pitcher scared. Jake Berger over 240 minus 125 again 250 last three years in a row. He's the new Chris Davis. Wow. I mean, even his slugging went up one year, but his on base is pretty consistent, which isn't great. Very consistent. So they're not plus 275 picks, but I'm giving you some fun ones, people. Just parlay him. I have another one want me to parlay him. I mean, let's put you in timeout. for a little bit, if we're being honest. Shut up a little bit. Coming off the Ofer graphic,

when we slow you down for a second. Over, over, over, minus, minus. I love these over. We'll get right into it with Shady Rays. Get ready for the season ahead with quality shades built to last. Our friends at Shady Rays have you covered with premium polarized shades that won't break the bank. Wear them every day.

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Use Code Talking. 35% off your next pair of polarized sunglasses. That's code talking at Shadyrays.com. Get yours now. Summer's here, kind of. Bet what you know. Oh, damn. I bet the wrong.

And what do I know? It's Boston Red Sox Baseball. You're such a socks. Ben, dude, people are getting sick of it. Sox kid. We're shocked, you've left, but we're socks. Trev's obsessed.

I just keep seeing clips going out of Jake being like, I'm on these socks. I'm like, those are white socks. Guys. Those are white socks clips. Alex Bregman. Fenway Park.

Jimmy, you did a, you do deep dive sometimes. What Tyler O'Neill do last year? What Adam Duval do the year before that? The Red Sox have a lineage. of right-handed hitters coming over and getting that boost, baby. Yes. Alex Bregman over under for his batting averages, 260,

which is plus 115. So there's a little extra juice there, Trev. So again, you have the least juice. I'm taking Bregge with the over. He's got the contract, so he's set. Also, if he goes nuts, he can get like a super contract because he's got the opt-out. but Fenway Park is crazy.

I realize where he's leaving, but where he's going is even better, and he's going to be in the middle of that lineup, and I think batting average can be a little bit of a cheat code with these bets. He did. He hit 260 on the nose last year, 262 the year before that. Last year was kind of a funky year in that contract year.

He got a slow start, and then he picked it up. All that's in the rear view, baby. So give me Bregman over two. 260 batting average. I would have been interesting to look up like doubles for him. Right. Like extra base hits. Yeah, do they have?

I thought I saw a triples leader. Oh yeah, that's out there. A triples leader for Alex Bragman? No, I wouldn't do it for him. Who won it last year? It had to been Duran. Triples leader? Yeah, I can look at that right more.

And Corbyn Carroll. And Corbyn Carroll. Corbyn Carroll led the league the year before that too. You want him to lead the league. It's not enough. It's not enough for a sprinkle or any other topics that we are, categories we have. So I didn't take it.

Probably that's a great one in Kansas City. He had 11 last year. Carol and Duran at 14. Alex Bregman plus 1,600 to be the doubles leader. He did it in 2019. We got the monster now and lead a foot. It's a few months ago. If someone wanted to sprinkle that, that's fine.

Duran is the favorite. Yeah. You guys might know someone that led the league in doubles one year. I don't think I did. I was close, though. Double plays. Double plays. Double plays.

Double plays, yes. Common mistake. Trev, do you want to let your final over out? I don't know. Oh, not really.

Okay. Perfect. Perfect. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Then let's change the tone a little bit. Let's go to the under segment. Oh.

Which this is where Draft Kings has cleaned it up the most. I have one. Almost made it my lock. Yeah, they won't let you do over under. We used to kill the RBI totals. Yeah. Because they were all at 100 and something.

And we're just like, this guy gets hurt at all. Adam Dufal after his big year, it was like one of three. It's like, draft king. Jim, you've got a,

this is your semi lock then. I have two unders that I really like. Okay. Number of teams to record 100 plus regular season wins. What would you guess they have it at? Number of teams. Say it again? To win 100 games or more.

It's under two and a half, right? What? One and a half, two and a half? I would have had it at one and a half or half. It's under two and a half. Two and a half. Oh, wow. Do not think three teams are going to win 100 games.

Zero teams won 100 games last year. I think obviously the Dodgers got better, but a lot of the NL teams also got better. And the AL got like the same, but even tighter. Yeah. Like, I don't think any one team got better. Oh, I like that. You know what I mean?

Yeah. So I think. And then on the flip side, Jake, right. It's the same line for teams to lose 100 games. And I, last year we had two with the White Sox and the Rockies, I believe. No, there was, there was a third for a hundred. There was three last year. White Sox, Rockies, Marlins.

And then the Angels were 99. Okay. I am thinking that we're not going to get that many teams that lose 100 games. We're going to clean it up. We're going to get one or two. Sure, but not three. That's not cool. Because you can't do it.

It would be bad. So I took the under on both of those. Parity, baby. What three teams do they have winning 100 games? Dodgers, sure. That's it. They probably just say one of the AL team. One of the NLE's teams, but the NLEs is brutal.

There's no team that is, they have over 93. and a half wins. The rest of the league is under, 93 and a half or under. Yeah. So I believe in that one more than the under 100. So for the official graphic and, and my record keeping,

the one I, my under is the, I think less than three teams will win 100 games this season. And I thought that was kind of a loophole. So I put money on that. Like I don't, I don't think an ALS team can do it. I don't think an ALS team can do it.

Yeah. I mean, the odds are not, the odds are minus 280. No, plus 120 for under two and a half teams. No, that's wrong, Jake. Because I looked at this too. Yeah, yeah. It's plus 120 for not having three teams that lose 100. It's minus 280 for not having three teams up.

Okay, that's what I bet. I bet both of them. I'll run with them. Run with it. Minus 280 makes a lot more sense. Yeah, yeah. Gotta be careful. That's my under.

Okay. Trev? I, you know, I hate unders, man. I like this guy a lot. But, and again, we've kind of been limited to what the unders we have here on the drafting sports book. So batting average is one I'm going with right here. This is a guy who had a career year last year.

You know, he's been on the up for a couple years now, but 2024, 927, P.S. He had 293 batting average. Okay. Problem with that, guys, is that his babbip was massive last year.

Let me get that up again. Last year, the babbit for my guy, Brent Rooker, was 362. Never had one that high before, not even close. Draft King has over under 260 on his batting average.

Last year I said 293, but the year before that, 246, when his bat was back to normal. Even if you go on baseball savant, last year his expected batting average, even though he had 293, it was only 266. So there was a little bit of luck involved with that aspect of it. So I'm going to go under 260 for my guy, Brent Rooker, and that is listed at. at plus 100. Okay. Did he change his swing?

That's a crazy. He's dabbled his swing. Things have gotten a little bit quieter with him. I mean, he is playing outside in Sacramento. The ball's supposed to fly there. But again, I just think that Babbitt was really,

really high last year. And, you know, the underlying metrics do suggest that batting average is probably going to come down again. So let's go like this, Brent. Why don't you hit 50 this year? Just take the batting average down a little bit and hit some more Homer.

Slug a little bit more. You got the money already. Under 260 plus 100, Brent Rooker, batting average is my under. I mean, let's cut the nice guy routine with you. You think Brent Rooker sucks. You saw Mookie dunk on him in that MLB preview.

Fulish Bailey tried to dunk on him and then he went and hit 290. So there's also the Foolish Bailey like Jinks effect. For 2024. Okay. So as long as fucking foolish keeps his mouth shut this year. Under's a tough.

Yeah. Good pick, Trev. Maybe. I don't know. The Sacramento thing's a wild card there. I like that you had a little info. It was nice. It was nice.

For my under, I've got to be careful with my verbiage here. They shaded on Rooker a lot. So maybe the, maybe teams were shifting them terribly and that helped them out. Okay. There you go, Trev. And he's going to hit 50. He's going to hit $259. 255.

50 homers. So this one, again, is a little careful with the words, but there's head-to-head regular season wins on draft king. So, like, there's a Yankees versus Mets one. There's a lot of different teams. And there's a couple oddballs. I like when they line up just two teams you want to associate together. I would have had the lines on this reversed.

And this is how we've talked about these teams on this show, so I've got to be honest with the people. Most regular season wins. Mariners versus Brewers. Mariners is minus 150. The brewers are plus 115. So I'm taking the Mariners to have, more under their loss, under their wins.

You're taking the Mariners to have more losses than the brewers. Yes, but it's an under. Yeah. So mariners, so less wins. Mariners under brewers. Mariners under brewers. I don't,

I don't mind it because we did have to search for under this year. They took the unders like away from. Plus one 50. The brewers win every year and the Mariners have not. So, hey, I hope this season for me is my Mariners' dunking season, and they win the West, and they've done it. You don't hope that. You don't care about that.

This is so disrespectful to Milwaukee. Okay. Milwaukee plus 115. As you're over. As my own. Milwaukee over Mariners. Mariners under Milwaukee is how you phrase it, I guess. We've been searching.

We've all said it a lot of different ways. So I'm saying use it as well. both. That's how I did college. That's how I did college. I would line up my classes so I could write one thesis paper handed into two teachers. History of Egypt. History of Africa. Same semester. One 15 page paper. Both of you. Read it. History of women in America. History of education in America.

One thesis paper. Prudence Cramble. Both teachers. You got to be smart, guys. Why would you write two thesis paper a semester? Efficient. efficient do they have AI to check if you AIed something yeah now they do I mean we're literally like right after I graduated the next year uh they started making kids turn it into turn it in dot com yeah turn it yeah I didn't have that that's insane but I don't think it would have mattered for me because I was handing it at the same time right if I go in the backlog of the system it was my original writing so well yeah and you shouldn't be penal

for that. You wrote it. I wrote it. It worked for this class. It worked for that. Yeah, I don't think I'm in trouble there. If I A-Ied something to AI, the AI-catcher. Yes. You just have to go one more than the A-I. I get my mom on it right now. Like, I'll copy and paste a what, I'll go chat GTP. I see if they tell on each other. As long as you're on an odd number of AI, like rungs, you're good.

You just don't want to be on the second one. Who is Trevor? What? What is Trevor Plouf's reputation as a baseball player? I'll ask chat you. That should be interesting. Okay. Trevor Plouf had a solid but not quite standout career as a professional baseball player.

He was primarily known for his time with the Minnesota Twins and later stints with the Oakland Athletics and Philadelphia Phillies. His reputation as a player can be summarized with a few key points. One, versatility. Two, power hitting. Three, consistency. Four, defensive play. Five, injury prone. I mean, he had me there.

Then you called me injury prone. That's not me. In summary, Trevor Pooh's reputation is that of a reliable power-hitting utility infielder who could provide occasional pop in the lineup but lack the consistency and defensive excellence to be a long-term star. Fans and analysts generally viewed him as a solid, though unspectacular contributor in his career. Boom. Fucking boner jams right there.

I'm in. I mean, there's enough solid in there that I think you just disregard all the other and say, that's fucking awesome. That's how I am. You guys, yeah, I'm in for that. Thank you, AI. That was well, that was chat, GTP. Now I'm going to go to perplexly and say, can you tell me if this paragraph was written by AI? And I'll copy and paste it. This is what you were wondering, right? If AI can tell on, tell on each other. I guess. Sounds like that's what you were asking. Yeah. More on the side.

It says the paragraph you provide about turf who appears to be human written. Ho! Whoa. Whoa. Chat GBT, GBT, outsmarted perplexity. Perplexity is saying that the writing style has a nuanced, evaluative tone that is less common in AI-generated text. AI tends to be more straightforward and less likely to offer subjective assessments.

I mean, is the real root of this is that AI has been taught that snitches get stitches? Maybe. So perplexity was like, I can't tell my God. Like when that lady from Pepsi said, here's all the secrets, she offered it to Coke, and they just fired her and called Pepsi and like, you got a rat. Yeah. That's what's going on here. I get it.

All right. Anyway, shout out to Trev's career. Hey, if you haven't put it together, this whole episode is brought to you by Draft Kings. It's the best time of year. That's why we're doing this. The baseball's about to happen. college hoops. Talk about their time in the sun.

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Bonus bets expire 168 hours after issuance. Four additional terms and responsible gaming resources. See dkng.com slash audio. Who's up next? All right, let's get into the locks and the sprinkles. Now this is where things get real. The lock is a lock. You're telling the people to lock it up.

And let's do that before the sprinkle. I have an interesting one. Again, I went half thought on this one. Good. It's minus 130. That's okay. You said 200's kind of a bar. It's a lot.

Lamo. Player to record 35 plus regular season saves. Okay. And I'm going with Claise. In the last three years, it's 42, 44, 47. He doesn't seem to be slowing down. He just seems to be getting better. You can also, like, he had 44 saves with a 3-2 ERA,

and then last year he had 47 saves with a 0-6-1. So you can still get the save, even if you're not as good as he's been. Right. And I think with the Tigers getting better and the Royals in it, there's going to be a lot more closer games than they had last year because he finished like 64 games and only got 47 saves. So some of those four-run leads might become three-run leads.

I think the Guardians are, They're always trying to just stay even with the pack. And last year they were like, we're better than the pack by this much. What? Did we overspend? And they had a big budget meeting about this. So I'm doing Clause 35 plus saves.

Lock it in. What's the juice on that? Minus one. Minus one 30. That's nice. I like that. That's good one. You could have talked us in 40 saves

because he's done that the last three years. I could have, but it's a lock. It's a lock. I could have rid of this. They offer you 40 plus for just a little bit more juice or less juice. Yeah, yeah, they do. 40 plus is plus 135. I don't know if I can lock that.

I can't lock that as much. I like that. You get a two-week injury. Saves leaders plus 700. That wasn't enough for the sprinkle. See? The dilemma here, I had to just ride the odds of what I thought fit. Gotcha.

Gotcha. You did good. Thank you. God, traded for Cory Klober from Texas. Corey Kluber from Texas Yeah but that was when they went Cluber, Lance Lynn Was it Gibby?

Was it minor? Gibby was in there They had all, Andrew Heaney was there. It was then 2020 And then 2020. Those are the days.

The Rangers and the Reds were really good. I got a lock And this is one we've talked about all off season long. There's not a lot of explaining to do. I just truly believe in this team. Red Sox to make the playoffs

minus 105. I don't, you can't, name six better teams in the AL. You just can't. So I understand they play in the ALE East and it's a good division all this. It doesn't matter. The Red Sox on paper, I think have the best roster in the American League. So I'm going Red Sox minus 105. Make the playoffs. Book it, lock it up. It's going to happen. The only thing that hurts you is if the White Sox give out 11 wins a team again. It doesn't matter. They're going to win the, the Red Sox are

going to win the AL East. They have the best team. I'm not disagreeing with you. I think it's a great lock. They just, they just said Christian Campbell, you're on the team, you're playing second base.

That means Breggie's at third. Devers is going to DH, whether he likes it or not. That's still such a weird way they handled all that. But they just have everything. They have everything. They're going to make the playoffs. I agree with you.

I think it's a really good lock. I was just saying the only like caveat if you wanted to would be that the way the AL Central teams are set up. The way the divisions are set up, we've had 90 win team missed the playoffs. Years ago, did we have that? 89 missed in the NLS last year, Diamondbacks. I think they're going to, I think the Redsax will be. It's a bet.

It's a bet. It's a bet. It's a bet. I like it. As you guys know, I bet what I know. And Trebs all over my Red Sox. I'm going to the New York Yankees. What are we doing here? And I'm going batting average.

And I'm going Cody Bellinger over 260. Whoa. Whoa. That's lock? Cody Bellinger. Cody Bellinger. Coming over from the Chicago Cubs. Hit 266 last year. In a year that it was like, okay, he gets paid a lot.

We like PCA. Let's move on from them. But it was kind of a downish, well, downish from the year before where Cody Bellinger hit 307. Cody Bellinger's leaving Wrigley where we've talked to Ian Hap and they say that first month, you're hoping to just survive with like a 250 batting average. You hope to not tank your season in April. There's days you show up to the ballpark and you know it's not going to get out. Cody Bellinger's playing at a very different ballpark now.

He knows it'll get out. And diving into some of his numbers for talking Yanks this year, he has an actual approach. And like he will take balls the other way. And he plays situational baseball. It's great with runners in scoring position. He is great in high leverage. Those are when his stats were the best last year.

I just think Cody Bellinger, still gets hurt from some of the injury years where he clearly was a different baseball player that I expected the line to be at like 280, 275. I think 260's too low. I think he'll get a couple Yankee jobbers. And when you're a lefty and you're willing to slap the ball the other way, there's actually a lot of baseball field out there. So he's going to get home runs when he turns on it that might not have gotten out at Rickley

and he's going to get hits that he might not have. have gotten because there's a lot of space in left and left center in Yankee Stadium. It's a lock. What are we doing? Yeah, only thing I would say is Yankee Stadium and lefties don't really go hand-in-hand with batting average. Because they pull. You can't get hits over there.

Yes, I know. That's what I'm saying. If he's got to really get those op-hits because it's 27th, even last year, when you had Soto do what he did, it was still 27th in hits and singles for lefties. he had 400 in spring training so there's that also huge what's the juice on that uh that is minus 115 yeah okay yeah we're being on pod here i don't love it that's fine yeah it's kind of like right on the line for me you're a bad better but that's okay okay i do want to bet you that one personally done show dinner sure yep yep you're thank you

one or two behind. Yeah, if you look at his spray chart from last year, it looks like there's six balls that would have got out of the stadium. And yeah, he doesn't have a lot of turned singles because I think the outfielder's there that he slaps it the other way a lot. Are there a minimum of bats for that? I was looking for that. I don't know if there is.

That's cool if there's not. Right? Not if it turns into you rooting for injury. Once he crosses the threshold And you pray to the guys You try to smite him No, no, no, no. It is, you know,

because he is one of our guys But I think it's a good If you're doing the baseball grid, if you're still into that, Cole Tucker technically batted 500 for the Rockies one year. So it was in five games, but that's why you said technical.

If anyone's looking to grid it up with Rocky's batting average. Kotuck. And him and Cody Bellinger grew up together. Full circle. Whoa. Like that? I liked it.

Landed to playing well. Bobbin. It's time for the sprinkle. Can I throw one in just before the sprinkle? Absolutely. Because James, you had a really good one with Class A plus 700. That's the 40 plus save. I was told 700 isn't enough for a sprinkle.

I get that. I do feel that way, but you know, you can mention it to fans that say, maybe I don't want a sprinkle. I want a half a sprinkle. I've got tons of mentions when we end the show. He's got a ton of mentions. I probably roll credits and me just mention it. I got, I mean, the Dodgers are plus $2.90 to win the World Series.

Clearly, like, what you consider the worst odds or the best odds with the worst payout. I think that's what you'd say. But you can get at the 3.30 if you just bet them to win the division and the World Series. If you're breaking them to win the World Series, why would you put $2.9. get the 330, they're going to win the division. And honestly, this is the truth. Who the fuck is going to stop the Dodgers? Like, I would consider, I would, everybody should sprinkle the Dodgers.

Plus 330 with a team that's clearly better than everybody else. Graves. Yeah, maybe. But at plus 330, I think it's still like a decent bet. I get it. Only one team wins the World Series. But we're talking about this is. What's it to make the World Series?

Don't have that in front. We could look for it. Maybe Robbie Soraco can get on there. But I just think like that. This is anything in that. What's the last time we felt like this about a baseball team? When's the last time a team's one back-to-back years? Yeah.

This is to me, 330 is still has value to it. You're right. The Astros a couple years. 100 bucks to win 330 bucks. A couple years in the middle there. We knew the Astros were going to win the division and be in the World Series. I get. I get it.

Seven game series, five game series. I understand that. And the Nationals end up taking them down when you wouldn't have seen that come in the Astros in 2019. But I kind of everyone saw the Astros be in there. So I'd like the odds of if it's still like sprinkle enough, if you can push it of them making the World Series. Just making the World Series.

As a lock. But anything can happen in a five game set. I don't know. I see him in the World Series. It's also probably good for baseball if they are. And then they lose to... What's your sprinkles? The drama.

I have so many sprinkles. So I put $1 on this because I clicked the wrong button. But I, no, no, this is, that's credit stuff. That's more for the credits. My sprinkle that I'll put on paper for everyone is for Bobby Witt Jr. No, no, for Francisco Lindor to lead the league in run scored. Similar to your Alonzo that Trev, like in thought, but less likely because anything can happen. And Lindor's got to get on base.

But it's plus 2,500. Oh, wow. So, I mean, it's a sprinkle. It does not deserve a red X if I don't get it. What's the, yeah, I actually do like that as a sprinkle. Who's the, who is the best odds to Lee? He's got to be Otani, maybe. Chohay and Soto.

Soto let it last year with. judge behind him. Judge had one of the best baseball seasons in the history of the sport. It seems like it's been forgotten because he dropped a fly ball in centerfield and they lost the embarrassing fashion. But when you compare Judge's offensive season to contemporaries, they're not there. It's just bonds, Ruth. You kind of catch the fly ball above the eyes, below the eyes.

Also plays a good outfield. Yeah. In right field. In right field, yeah. But not on Foolish Bailey's top of Foolish Bayley's list of best players right now. It's a tough episode for...

Come on, foolish. Jesus. Bailey, yeah. Had Soto. They literally, Judge, had a better year. Oops. Come on. Come on.

For my sprinkle. I'm going with a guy that kind of burst onto the scene last year. I'm going for reliever of the year. Oh. Hell yes. Okay, okay.

I like that reaction, James. That's sprinkle talk, reliever of the year. Reliever of the year. That is up to the gods. I'm going in the National League here. Let me tell you he's on top of this. Plus 400 for Edwin Diaz. Look, I love.

He's out, by the way. Love the Mets. It's not, yeah. Ryan Halsley. I couldn't believe the Eidler's on a team that's said they're not really competing this year. So he probably will get traded. And then who knows? Like, that's just kind of weird for me.

Ricell Iglesias, I could see. Tanner Scott, I really like it plus 550. So not enough for a sprinkle. There is one guy on a team that I think will be in the playoffs. We'll have, you know, 90 or above wins. So you're going to get saved chances here. I'm going Justin Martinez. Plus 1,300 to be the N-O reliever of the year.

He has all the stuff to do it. Changed his pitch mix last year, started throwing a sinker. So first year throwing, he ended up throwing at 4,4. 4.8%. The split and the slider are excellent pitches. If you can figure the sinker out a little bit and make that a plus pitch. You're talking about a reliever with three plus pitches.

I mean, it is a plus pitch. Those are 100 freaking miles an hour, dude. He's going to get chances for saves. He's a young kid. He's hungry. I think he just got some sort of mini extension with them. I'm pretty sure that happened.

Maybe Robbie checked that out for me. But he's going to be leading that Diamondbacks bullpen and the stuff is just absolutely incredible. The savant page is blood red. Clean up the walks a little bit, but everything else is just, you watch him pitch and you say, that's one of the best pitchers in baseball right there.

Just agreed to a five-year, $18 million contract. Yeah. So bought out his Arb years, maybe some options. Yeah, something like that. Okay.

I mean, throws a hundred-hour sinker, guys. And why even throw it? It's got bad numbers against it. The split finger and the slider are impossible. I think the numbers on the sinkers, he doesn't control it enough, so is out of the zone a lot. It's got a, you just got to figure that out, just throw a few more strikes. Last year they batted 3.30 against the sinker and slugged 400 against the split finger, 098,

adding average, and 54 width percentage and the slider are the same. Yeah, it's secondary stuff is absolutely a field. Again, first year throwing that sinker, like located a little bit better. Plus 1,400, I'll take it. I like it. He's a special talent. Why not? He is reliever of the year.

Maybe a couple multi-inning outings, so the stats are really juicy. I got nervous. Didn't even know he was Dominican. Okay. Now I'm way more in on him. It's not a sprinkle anymore. All in.

Interesting. Okay. Trev, I was nervous. because I also went with a reliever for my sprinkle, but I went most saves. Wow, kind of like what I did. A little bit, but I went with another person because, you know, Class A for most saves was plus 700.

I sneakie just revealed I'm out on Edwin Diaz this year. You know, and then you got all the dogs around baseball. there's Devin Williams, there's Josh Hader. It's a tricky formula because you need close wins. You just need the full season. That at plus 1,400, I'm going to go with Mason Miller. Why not? He's not going to get competition for that gig.

It's his. The A's everyone's like, hey, they're a more real team this year, right? Like they got Sevy, they got springs. You know, they've got a couple guys in that lineup. I don't care where Mason Miller's pitching. So Sacramento effect doesn't really worry me at all. But I don't know. Could that be one of the storylines of this season?

Like the Mason Miller 50 save season happens? Why not? At plus 1,400. I like it for my sprinkle. You're obviously with how good class say is and a couple other factors. it's out of your hands, but also why not?

Go doing, Mason. Why are you so out on Edwin Diaz this year? His Velo is down in spring. I don't know. He is like the favorite in all of the reliever category. Yeah, interesting. Maybe Vegas knows something. I guess for me, like, if there's anything with Edwin

and you're the Mets, your goal is the end of the year. But I don't know. Go get him, Mason Miller. Is that the episode? Well, Jimmy says he's got a lot on deck Yes, I have some rollouts So why don't we have an auxiliary as well Why don't we do the

I did take Corby and Carroll To lead in triples He's done it two years in a row It was plus 475 So it felt like You throw five bucks on that Enjoy the 60 you get back Or whatever it is

No, no 10% Uh And then what else did I take? I like Is it Where is it? where is it? Holding. I'm going Boba Shet over 160 hits plus 105.

He looks like a monster in spring training and contract year. Last team to lose. I did say all of mine. Okay. I accidentally put $10 on Bobby Witt Jr. to have the most regular season RBIs because I thought I was clicking run scored. So I've got that bet out there.

That's out for the people. I'd cash it out. Yeah, let me see. I don't know. There wasn't. I put $1 on Lindora to lead the league in RBIs because that just made me laugh. $1, I went $81.

Right. Why wouldn't I do that? If I'm walking on a corner of the street and the guy says, you give me $1, you have a chance. I give you $100 in return. I'd do that. I think Vegas likes when people think that a lot.

That's literally the lottery. Yeah, Vegas is in on. the lottery. And they like that. Maybe I do it every Saturday or something like that. Spend a lot of time looking at Colt Keith's batting average over under. Yeah, I didn't have too many others that screamed out like instabet. That's kind of how I do this.

If I look at it and the fingers just start placing it, I'm like, that means that means that one seems pretty good. I always want like a start of season one just because you don't have to wait the whole year. Right. But. That's scared. Zay Ramirez, Jose Al Tuve. Anything else, fellas? No, I was going to take the under on Otani steals because if he is pitching, I don't think he's going to steal as much.

I don't know if Vegas would adjust that accordingly, but you can't bet unders anymore. Yeah, you can't bet under. You can't bet over this cliff. So, and I, that was a wasted thought. If you want to just remind yourself how good shows. Oh, Hey, Otani is. There's 60 plus stolen bases and 70 plus stolen bases. There's a tab there.

The only two players mentioned in either of those are Ellie De La Cruz and Shohei Otani. The guy that hits 54 homers and is a Cy Young pitcher. He's pretty good. A rise over 300 batting average, minus 145. Not too juicy, but that's all he does. He's 27. What was it again? Say it again.

Over 300. Minus 140. It's a lot of juice. Yeah. You find that with one thing you want to parlay. I just feel like that's not sexy enough. He still say sexy. Although I like her eyes.

I think you. I like you guys. Thank you. Everyone tuning in. John Beano. Coach Trev. We're back. Back Wednesday.

And then we're playing. Play ball. Which ball game So jacks up Justin Martinez Splitter Pitch of the year Telling you

Yamamoto Hey Suzuki Has some big bad-up stuff last year too Like 370 Babb of regression guy Yeah Yeah