Talkin' Baseball (MLB Podcast) - Our Favorite Picks For the MLB Season | 643

Episode Date: March 29, 2023

Jomboy, Jake, Trevor Plouffe, and BBD are making their 2023 Prop Bets! Can they top last year's performances?Check out last year's picks here: https://www.youtube.com/live/zhfY0LJD-Cg?feature=shareUse code JOMBOYPRESEASON for 15% off your next purchase at SeatGeek* https://seatgeek.onelink.me/RrnK/JOMBOYPRESEASON*max discount $50, expires 3/31/2023Visit https://mugsy.com and use code BASEBALL for 10% off.Gambling Problem? Call [phone] or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA), Call 877- 8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY), If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (CO/IL/IN/LA/MD/MI/NJ/OH/PA/TN/WV/WY), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (KS/NH), 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), visit OPGR.org (OR), or 1-888-532-3500 (VA). 21+ (18+ NH/WY). Physically present in AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/KS/LA(select parishes)/MA/MD/MI /NH /NJ/ NY/OH/OR/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. VOID IN ONT. Eligibility restrictions apply. Bonus bets (void in MA/NH/OR): Valid 1 per new customer. Min. $5 deposit. Min $5 pregame moneyline bet. Bet must win. $150 issued as six (6) $25 bonus bets. Bonus Bets are non-cashable and cannot be withdrawn. Bonus bets must be wagered 1x and stake is not included in any returns or winnings. Bonus Bets expire 7 days (168 hours) after being awarded. Promotional offer period ends 5/28/23 at 11:59PM ET. See terms at sportsbook.draftkings.com/baseballterms No Sweat Bet: Valid 1 offer per customer. Opt in req. Valid only on MLB bets. First bet after opting in must lose. Paid as one (1) bonus bet based on the amount of your initial losing bet. Max. $10 bonus bet awarded. Bonus bets are non-cashable and cannot be withdrawn. Bonus bets must be wagered 1x. Bonus bet stake is not included in any returns or winnings. Bonus bets expire 7 days (168) hours after being awarded. Promotional offer period ends 4/2/23 at 11:59PM ET. See terms at sportsbook.draftkings.com/baseballterms.+++Timestamps:0:00 Intro3:00 We CRUSHED Our 2022 Picks10:10 Unders20:15 Overs27:20 Sprinkles41:10 Locks52:30 Trevor in the Twins Booth? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Hello and welcome to talking baseball. It is the prop bet episode. Getting it in right before opening day. Let's do it. Hello and welcome to talking baseball. Brought to you by Seatkeek. My name is Jimmy. Sit next to Jake.

Trev in California and BBD behind the dish. It's time for the prop bet episode. A staple in the offseason shows, rounds, cycle. And this is our last episode of the offseason as well. Jake, how you doing? James, Trev, BBD, everyone wearing their Johnboy Media merch today. How about that? Doing well.

Doing well. Excited for the world famous prop bet ep. I think if you excluded Trevor last year, we won like at a 95% clip of our bets. So that's, I don't know. I mean, maybe this is a financial episode. It's like we should label it sports and finance On the on the YouTube But excited to do it, man

And excited, it's a pretty ridiculous feeling That we're playing ball tomorrow. Games that count, Trev. Yes, games that count. Opening day is here. I think that this year is going to be a little bit different for baseball. I don't know why I think like all the social media accounts Are stepping it up.

I got some videos on the MLB Twitter that are getting me fired up. I started watching the twins, like little documentary they have on their YouTube channel. It's fucking awesome. Like there's a lot of really good content coming out. I just think it's going to make the game feel a little bit different this year. I'm excited for baseball. James, are you excited as I am? I am as excited as you are.

And there is. I think the World Baseball Classic did help like kind of speed ramp people into the season and getting excited for things. And I'm excited for this episode. But it was much tougher to find things I truly believe in. Like last year, I kind of like really like besides my sprinkle, which is just luck to get it. But the rest I like really did. It's easy.

I don't even know why they're offering this. This is tougher this year. Made too much money off of them last year. There's just, they were trying to lure people in last year or something because there was some outrageous total. There's less. There's just less. that you can do now.

It's like the top 20 players is the only people you can bet on. Give me the fucking, you know, Harrison Bader lines. I have a better sense of those. Yeah. Yeah. Can we go over like what we did last year

because I know I wasn't great? Do you have them? I've pulled up or is it easy to find? Yes, I thought I just had them. Oh, here we go. Yes, our 2020. 22 lines. Trev, you had Carlos Correa over 25 and a half homers.

Did that hit? That was close, but close. 22. No, not close, loser. Wow. Luis Robber, over 28 and a half homers. I don't believe that one hit. Matt Olson, more home runs than Freddie Freeman.

Did that one hit? 34 to Freddy's. 21. Winner. Lock. He had twins minus 4.5 wins over the Guardians. More wins than the Guardians. Guardians won the division.

So that one didn't hit. Sprinkle Julio Ria Sayung. You finished third, second, third. So not a bad sprinkle. And your lock was under 98.5 RBI, Zayu Henio Spores. That's right, the race. And you won it. 87.

I hit that one. You removed a lock on Astros, winning the AL West because it felt like too much juice. Okay, that's kind of where I'm at today. I told you guys, what's the juice cap on our lock? I got one. Yeah, I think after, because that Astor's line was minus 175, you changed it to a minus 120.

Got your lock. That's all that matters. Jimmy, you went Harper under 97.5 RBI's hit. Marcus Simeon under 32 and a half homers. Juan Soto, more homers than Acuna. That was even money. Your sprinkle was Mariners' longest winning streak and that hit, and your lock was Astros, more wins than the Yankees.

Five for five. Fuck. My theme last year was players changing divisions. And I just chased unders in players going to a new division. Got to get used to it. One of those. Jay Cardinals to make the playoffs. IKF under 167 and a half hits.

Bobby Wood Jr. You took that because he thought he was going to get moved off. off the position and he didn't even get moved still hit the under. Well, wasn't going to be at the top of the order anymore. He had 172 and he played 158 games. And the Yankees don't let guys play that many games. How many games did he play that?

142. And he was hitting bottom of the top of the order like the bat's probably. Lock of the locks. Yeah. Bobby Witt, Jr. Over 20 and a half homers. Your sprinkle was bucks in MVP and your lock was Adam Duval under a buck 10 and a half RBI.

That was just too high a line. Those were the lines we're looking for this year. The 110 RBI is I think there's one person or two people that are in the hundreds and everyone else is in the 90s. If you took RBI under last year, you won every single one. They were just crazy high. What was up with that? 90% of the RBI is.

Did they think there was a juice ball coming? Like seriously, because this is stuff that Vegas does. Maybe their algorithm said juice ball and they didn't have a human like say, no, that's not happening. And hitting was generally down last year. Yeah. Like I was a couple of these You know, I'll just tell you guys off the rip

Adelis Garcia on paper It looks like he had very similar 21 and 22 seasons He had 100 OPS plus in 21 A 113 OPS plus in 22 So like just almost being the same He got 13% better Weird here

I have a question about The Sprinkles So this year we're doing you have to take an over, you have to take an under, you have to take a lock and a sprinkle. Lock. I don't know. That was off air. We discussed minus 150. 150.

Yeah, it can't be. Okay. No. And then for. We're not doing the big ones. Yeah. For sprinkle, like last year's plus 3,500. That was yours, Trev.

Mine was plus 3,000. Jake's was plus 4,000. When Jake hit his sprinkle the year before on Burns, it was plus 3,000. I couldn't, $4,000. I couldn't find anything that high, even kind of being like offered in areas I like this year. So what's the limit there? I don't want to say one and then you guys don't like it.

I mean, sprinkle. I think anything over like 800 juice. Yeah, 800,000. Oh, all right. The one I have is 1900. So that's fine. Yeah. We just really went for it last year.

The line in my head was, was at least 1,000. Just the extra digit, I think, does. something for me. It seems like we're tightening up over there. We're really tightening these odds up. Us or them? No, Draft Kings.

Yeah. Yeah. We cleaned house last year. Again, excluding Trevor. If you take out Trevor, ploof, the amount of money we made last year.

Well, Jake and I, Jake and I, you take out the sprinkles, which aren't designed to hit. Jake and I went 100%. We went eight for eight. You know what?

They say, fucking last year. Want to know the difference? Yeah. Yeah. The difference, Travis, we took unders and you took overs because you're a nice guy. And now we're forcing you to take an under. So we're guaranteeing you a win.

And if you guys had no idea, this episode is brought to you by the Draft King Sportsbook. Baseball fans, America's back tomorrow. We're live stream and come join us all day, all night. And place a couple bets of the Drafking Sportsbook, especially if you're new there, $5 pregame money line bet. get you $150 in bonus bets if your team wins. We're going to be placing some bets throughout the day, having a good time laughing.

Download the drafting sports will gap now. Use code talking. Just like the show. New customers can bet $5 on any pregame money line and get $150 in bonus bets. If their team wins, only a drafting sports book with code talking minimum age and eligibility restrictions apply. See show notes for details. Jake mentioned it.

We're going to be live for opening day. And the whole crew that's local in New York will be live from around 1 o'clock until 1 p.m. in the afternoon to like 1 a.m. at night, we'll have a rotating cast. At one point, there's six different games on, and we have six TVs, so every game will be on. So no matter what team you personally enjoy, your game will be on. We busted out a 7th TV today.

So during that time where there's six games, we can still have the chat up on one TV while having every game. So, yeah. Yeah, they fix the cable situation, too, so it's not. Like streaming, it's like six games on cable. Do we have the package, the MLB package? If not, we need to buy that. I think we're going to get that.

But also our graphics guy, Blake posted. We made like a game schedule. And I think everything's like kind of on TV because it's like bally's and like. We don't get bally's. I thought we did. No. We did. Well, then we have the package.

We'll deal with that tomorrow. Come join us. Yeah. All right. Who wants to kick it off? Treve, you're hot. I do, what do you guys want to do first? Overs, unders, locks.

I feel like we should do over on. Let's get the unders out of the way. Sure. I got mine ready to go. Okay. It's a formula. I don't mean any disrespect to this player. This is so messed up.

It's not messed up, dude. I kind of, I get why the line is up there, okay? I'm taking an under on the RBI total because I think that's still going to work. I tried to find one of the highest ones there. I'm just going to go for it. Rift the bandit off, right?

Love this player. Got a big old. but plays down in Atlanta, Austin Riley. Oh, that disaster. I looked at that one. 104 and a half they have him slotted out. Now he has eclipsed that in 2021. He hit 107.

Okay? Put 160 games that year. Last year, 159 games, 93 RBIs. I think Acuna might be the difference there. Like, Acuna is going to be hitting in front of him. And maybe that's where this line is getting up to, 104 and a half, but I'm taking a page out of James book because I remember you tell me, like, I think you took Mike Trout or somebody under 40 homers. Like, if he gets hurt for,

yeah, a week, two weeks that's kind of out the window, these counting stats that are up that high, you know, you have to be healthy and producing all year long. So this is no disrespect to Mr. Riley. I think you're going to drive in the 90s, maybe even hit that 100 mark, but 104 and a half, you had to hit 105, taking the under on the R. There's a lot of guys around you that can do damage. Like sometimes just move the runner over. The guy behind you, keep the line moving. That's all you might to do.

Under 104 and a half RBIs for my man, Austin Riley, this year. Hate to do it to you, but it's a formula, man, and it's a winning formula for us. Yeah, I was looking at the RBI stuff and I was trying to find teams where they have, they have the there's two guys on a team with the over under around 100 because if you look around the stats not a lot of teams have two 100 rbi guys these days yeah um i think the blue jays had like vladdie and bobbashette both above 100 or they had like Vladdy bobbishet springer and i was going to go there for my under and just choose one of them i don't think all three of these are all going to get over

100. But I didn't. But I looked at Austin Riley too because I thought there's a lot of guys in that lineup. One of them is going to have it. Last year it was Olson. So I don't hate that picked by you. Trev, I do. And I'm going to tell the people to not place that bet because Austin Riley, you mentioned, well, you know, if he misses some time or whatever. He played 160 games in 21. He played 159 last year. All he's done is play. I think this year I'm becoming a believer. of like health is is like a skill and I think Austin Riley has shown that skill and he got better from 21 to 22 he's another example his stat line got slightly worse opi sways at least but his OPS plus was better so I don't know I'm interested to see I think you're playing with fire a little

bit like I said it's just been a winning formula for us I think he's going to have a great year I think he's going to play some games, but, you know, that's a high total, dude. A high total. The 100 mark is very difficult. And I understand people are going to do it. And in that lineup, there's going to be a lot of people on base for him. And there's going to be some run scored. I believe in the brakes.

Believe in Austin Riley. But I had a formula coming in, and I'm executing it, Jake. I understand what execution means? I love that for you. Freaking chop your head off. Okay. Jim, you, me? You can go.

Different execute. Our video of us just watching the guy across the street for 20 minutes just got up. Just came up. Yeah. Zotexed me. It was like, this is insane. Yeah.

I watched all 20 minutes. Yeah. We pushed a boundary. Go check out. Is that on John Boy, Jake TV channel? Trevor, we just looked out the window at the guy across the way for 20 minutes, waiting for him to look at us.

It's a weird one. And I can't get away. I can't go watch. My under, Treve, you're around the formula, but I think you're missing the formula a little bit. I'm taking an under, and I'm going at one of our most aggressive fan bases, which will please both you guys. Wow.

It's a hitter I love. Oh, I love this hitter, Trev. I love him. He's fantastic. I'm taking the under on Teosker Hernandez home runs. 27 and a half. Even money. Teaskers only beaten.

that once. Yeah, I looked at that. I had that typed as one point as well. And in 2021, it's the only season he's beat that. He's a guy that's good for like one quick guy else a year. And he's joining a new league, new team. We just saw Jesse Winker try to do this. And it was tough for him. And there's, you know, each player's their own player. But going to a new team in a new league. And by the way, a tougher hitter's ballpark. He's going from Toronto, which, Trev, I know that's one of your favorite places to hit to Seattle, which historically hasn't been a home run haven that I think Tay Oscar being on a new team, hey, again, kind of BBD said it before this, I hope I'm wrong and I have to drink Teasker tears because

he's going to be a free agent too, but he's also like a slash hitter. He's not like a, I don't picture him as a true vaunted home run guy. Give me those doubles. The last time I said that speech, it was about Vlad before he won the year. MVP. So Teoskers under home runs. I totally remember. You took the under on like 23 homers for Vlad or double doubles guy Vladdy and he he went nuts. He's slim. He's going to hit doubles this year. Yeah, no chance. I like that. I also looked at that one too. I like the formula of switching leagues into a big hitter's ballpark. But there is something in the water there in Seattle, man. They had me chasing that

RBI total of Union Eos Juarez last year. It's scary. And you're going to piss off the Mariners fans, but they're already pissed off anyway. I guess that doesn't matter. What do you got, Chimbo? I'm going Byron Bucks and Homer's under. Just search for a line where it was a guy's career high.

It's hard to bank on a guy hitting his career high in homers. He only had eight spring training at bats. Doesn't have the best health history record. And I think they're going to be as cautious as they can. Like I think they were very cautious in spring. I think in April they're going to be cautious. He probably runs into like a cautionary two-week stint at some point. Because like if you can just keep him healthy for the end of the season,

you're going to be there. So if he's healthy, I think it's going to be, I think he's going to hit more. He's shown that like, what's the number? Oh, it's 30 and a half.

It's his career high. I believe it's 30 and a half. Yes, it is. But I literally, I just searched every home run over under that they have. They don't have that many. And then search is, if it's a player's career high.

And then that's how I fell on to Bucks in. And I was like, well, he's a tough one to do it too because you don't even, you've never seen a full season at 2015 or 16, whatever it was. But yeah, then I looked, I was like,

oh, was he playing in spring and he's had like a limited or delay. And I think they're going to handle them. They should carefully. So he's a, he's a, he's a D.H to start the year a lot. I mean,

I looked at that as well. It is juiced at minus 145. so it's kind of pushing it for us a little bit. But I think you're right, James. I think they are going to be very cautious with him throughout the year. But I did just watch that documentary on the Twins YouTube and it got me all fired up. So I couldn't take that one.

That's why you couldn't. The other one I like, best friends. If we're just saying ones, or if you don't mind me, saying one, is Blake's now under 10 and a half wins. Because he got eight wins last year and he only handed the bullpen two other opportunities. for wins or handed a lead twice. You know, it's not like he got no decision to death.

There's a, the win total for pitchers is very low this year as well. And I was looking at some of them. I'm like, there's no way this guy must have won 16, 17 games before. Not a lot of pitchers win games anymore. Like that's not like a thing anymore. If you look at, like I was doing that and I was looking at teams, I was looking at all the guys who got 15 wins or more last year to search if there's any on a non-playoff team on a like a bad team it wasn't in the and maybe it was the a L or but it

wasn't so then I was trying to find a you know non-competitive team stud starting pitcher and just take the under to search for an under but nothing Vegas kind of knew that formula smart guys big second half than Snell that one scares me a little bit like Riley too big second half for Snell do you have reasoning behind that? He had a big Big second half, excuse me. I think the light bulb went off for him last year and that Padres. Off or on? Excuse me?

Do the light bulb turn off or did it turn on? Yes. You need to relax a little bit today. Where are we going to next, boss? Isn't Bieber's? Does he get one? Ebes? In the past, it's been I do a lock and a sprinkle. Oh, okay.

He goes, he's the extremes. That's what he likes. are we doing overs now because this is the fun part sure you want to start trev i do i am parlaying the wbc into the season i'm a big believer in momentum from the wbc into the season and c rosy just asked me about this team he said who's going to step up and lead when rice hoskins is out for the year and bryce harper's out through the middle of the year. And I said, you know what? No one really has to for the Phillies

because they kind of got dudes throughout the lineup. Just go be yourself. Turns out, Trey Turner doesn't want to just be himself. He wants to be a better version of himself. All the dude did was hit Homers in the WBC. He's moving to a hitter's ballpark. He knows this division, Jake. I'm taking the over on Trey Turner's homers,

23 and a half. I think he's only eclipsed that once in his career. Yes. But I like this guy. I think he's going to play every single day. They want him in the line. They gave him all that dang money. He's going to play.

And I think he's just found a stroke, man. He's going to bring that confidence into the season. Play enough, have enough at bat for the counting stats. Trade Turner over 23 and a half homers. I like it. Captain America. I like it. I had a

WB's spring train. The remaining numbers are also a video game, which I didn't know until now. 524 batting average in spring games. So that's excluding the WNBC. How many did you play? Seven games, 21. 21 at bat. So he's...

Turns out Trey's confident. Yeah. He's locked. I like it, Treve. You got to believe in something. I think that little ballpark there in Philly, there's going to be a lot of souvenirs from old Trey Turner out there in the seats. Yes.

Okay. Okay. Well, let's keep the hype train going. It's over season. I had two overs I loved. I think, you know what? I'll save the other as my lock and bring it over to the lockpile later. I'm going to go with Bo Bichette over 170 and a half hits.

Like I said before, I believe health is somewhat of a skill. Bo Bichette, the last two seasons, 159 games, 159 games. He led the AL and hits both of those seasons, 191 and 189. So if Bo Bichet is out there in playing, which he has proved to me he can, he is going to hit. And by the way, he might even get better because he's 25 years old. So I will take the over on Boba Chet hits for my lock. Nice. I'm a massive Bobichette guy.

I said something, I don't know if it was on this show or baseball today, so I think he's one of the more underrated shortstop. I think he's on the Blue Jays TPP. And people are coming at me saying, underrated, this guy's over him. I'm like, go look at the freaking numbers, people. You may not like him at shortstop defensively sometimes. I can see that.

I get that. I think he looks pretty out there. I think he can get better out there. But offensively, what this guy has done as a shortstop, go look around the league, man. go see what all these short stops are doing. You put Boba Shett next to him. He's up there with the top tier.

I like that, Jake. I like all the overs. All right. Well, I'm taking one that I was worried other people were going to take because it's the formula's kind of right there. It's Corey Seeger hits. Over 146 and a half.

Corey Seeger was the biggest shift guy. According to a lot of articles, calculations. He lost 26, around 26 hits last year due to the shift. He's number one guy, not like dribblers, but hard hit balls to shallow right field. Got gobbled up. In spring, without the shift this year, 467 batting average, he's just kind of like peppering. So if he stays healthy, I like the over there because it doesn't seem like they accounted for that.

I think he got 140 something last year. 145 last year. 145 last year with the shift. He doesn't have it. He's the one person who's the top of the list. Anytime you look at who's going to get most benefited by shift regulations. So I'm banking on that. New rules.

Is he just a rollover king? Like three whole shift? No. Is it up the middle? What is it? Hard balls. Think of like Tashara or Ortiz. Martini Cup.

Yeah. So he was the rover. out there. He was hitting it right at the guy. The guy playing shallow right. Yeah, ground balls right to him. Now, what if they implore the two outfield outfielder? He's been popping.

He's been popping Apo in the air in spring. I like that. I think he hit two Apo homers. He put them to left field. It's not like the old shifter. They'll let you take a single. Look, that's going to be a double if you shoot it that way. So I like it.

Yeah, that one feels. strictly health dependent. Like, I think baseball-wise, I think... Yeah. Well, a lot of them. Exactly. For going for an over, that's it. Yeah.

The hit totals, I was looking at those as well when we were prepping for this episode. They all seemed a little low. But, you know, I think we're away from... That's because of the injury. Like, if it happens, you're kind of screwed. But I think for a lot of players, they leave it there for if they play the whole year. Load management. Are we doing that in baseball this year?

Are we playing guys? That's what I want to know. No comment. Where does that leave us now? That brings us to sprinkle season, I think, which is maybe the favorite. I think it's my favorite segment of the bat because it uncorks our brains a little bit.

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It's 10% code baseball at mugsy.com to get ridiculous comfort that will cause you to never wear anything else again. Wow. Mugsy.com code baseball, 10% off. Sprinkle time, boys. Before we start this, I've been looking at a few guys.

You know, you see all these lists on the Draft King's website. That's where I'm at right now, looking at all the prop bets and leaders and stuff. A few guys' names kind of stick out. Rowdy to Les being included on this list for the homers. Yeah. It was pretty cool. Had to go look at it.

I had to go search. I was like, wait, what? He did pop a lot of homers last year and I didn't want to go against him. Me neither. But, you know, it's a lot of like MVP's, all stars, like fucking guy guys. And Rowdy to Les, man, you're on that. And I think that's fucking awesome, dude. So congratulations.

Also Anthony Volpe on the stolen base leaders. sprinkled that on our talking yanks episode. Did you really? I'm sure those odds have shifted. They shifted a lot. Is he, is he a burner like a carol type? Stole 50 bags?

I think he's smart. Short and quick. We've been doing some speculating on his height recently. I think he's a shortstop, quick guy. Okay. I don't want to go first on Sprinkle. I want somebody else to go first. Because I'm going in between two right now.

I got to choose. Sure. Robbie Ray to lead in strikeouts plus 1900. So last year, Robbie Ray struggled a little bit because he was two-pitch pitcher most of the time. He lost a little velo on his fastball, was in a new division, and he made a new pitch up, the sinker, which isn't a strikeout pitch. It really wasn't that good, but he wanted a pitch that he's a lefty. He wanted a pitch that had arm-side movement away from righties or into lefty batters. and he threw a lot of two seamers, sinkers,

Jordan Alvarez smoked that one to take the walk off, if you remember in the postseason, to eliminate the Mariners? Or is that that wasn't the final game? I'm forgetting. But this spring, Robbie Ray showed up, and he does not have the two seamer anymore. He has a splitter, which has that same armside run,

but now with a lot of dip, it's a swing and miss pitch, not a swing and hit pitch. So instead of adding a third pitch, gets hits he's added a third pitch that gets swing and misses if you look at his strikeout numbers he's averaging 1.5 strikeouts every inning this spring I think he just went four innings pitched 9Ks no hits like breeze through and he's throwing a lot of this new pitch splitter um so i liked him in wins or i was but they didn't have him available for that category i don't think um and strikeouts is enough to count as a sprinkle but super interested he's also a guy that's healthy he's never really

miss starts or time. And if he's making all his starts and has a new pitch that is a swing and miss pitch, he should go back to being a strikeout guy. Over under on strikeouts was 200. So I would take the over on that, but I liked Seeger hits more. A lot of Mariners talk. And probably more to come.

Robbie Ray. Yeah. What kind of pants is Robbie rocking this year? Still tight? Tight. Tight. Tight as they get. They'll fix it aim broken.

He's going painted on one game. See if anyone notices. It just wore his sliders one day. Like, I don't know. Yeah. Yeah. I like it. He's one year removed from being the strikeout leader in the AL.

So, um. What a story that guy is, right? Like everyone always talked about he's going to be good. He's got all the swinging mist up. Then bam, he did it. Ain't that it. I like it. I'll go with my sprinkle.

I think this is my biggest sprinkle so far, and this is actually one I did on talking yanks. I think the reason I went there, it's a conversation we actually circled up on, was pitcher wins. I just think we're at a weird era of baseball that, like, you know, Kyle Wright won 21 games last year, which, again, I think there was a lot of,

now that we have other metrics to measure pitchers, I don't think anyone was saying Kyle Wright was the best pitcher in the National League last year that we, you know, there's a lot of luck involved in pitchers wins that we've kind of quantified that. But you got to be a good pitcher, right? That's the start.

You got to be on a good team. And you got to get the boys hyped up. And Trev, at plus 7,000. Jesus. Who gets the boys more hyped up than now? Esther Cortez, Jr. He got his first full run last year, 28 starts. You know, and they were kind of worried about the load on him.

He told them, don't worry, I pitch every offseason and I go. He won 12 games last year, 12 and 4. You know, hopefully that Yankees lineup will be doing enough. And there were some questions coming into the season. Remember, he bailed on Team USA because he had a hammy. He only, he's now made, he made his third preseason start yesterday, but he's going to be in the rotation the first time around compared to the other Yankees injuries. His hamstring is nothing that I don't know.

If Nestor gives the Yankees 30 starts, why doesn't he have as much of a chance as anyone else to win a bunch of games? So at plus 7,000, 10 bucks to win 710 bucks. Why not? Yeah. That's a sprinkle right there. Sprink. I mean, I was also looking at pitchers wins for my sprinkle. I think I'm going to end up sticking there.

I thought we might have. We're going to say the same person. But you're right. The formula you have, Jake. And I know you're not like a school guy. But good team. Plus, get the boys fired up. Plus enough starts throughout the year equals.

Pitch quick, you know. Sprinkle, sprinkle. And yeah, I think he will be one of the guys that manipulates the pitch clock. better than anyone. He just got called out for quick pitching. He did. I saw that. You got to make eye contact, Nestor, just like Jake always says.

You're at the club. I'm in between a few. All this time, all this time, I try to decide. Because especially when you mentioned... I don't know if this was before the episode or not. You mentioned Zach Gallin being mad at us. Told Nikki Cass, why don't you guys pick me for the Cy Young? So I was like, should I just pick Zach Gallen?

at plus a thousand to win the Salyang? What is he? 1,100. A decent sprinkle. See what that guy does? He twirls it, but I'm not going to do it. I love you, man. I'm not going to do it.

I am going to go with pitchers win total, same as you, and I am going to go with a league leader in my guy who plays on the same team as the guy that led the league in wins last year, Kyle Wright. I think it's Max Fried's year. Okay. I think he absolutely does it. He's at plus a thousand, I believe it is. I lost the page to lead the league and wins.

The guy stays healthy. He pitches it deep enough into games. The bullpen's good. His team is going to score runs for him. He's turned himself into a premier lefty in the game. I think it's his time to shine lead, the leagues. the league in wins Max Freed. He came up on a search I was doing.

It was like most games, five innings pitched, two run runs are less, and you didn't get the win or something like that. Maybe it was six innings pitched. And he came up as a guy who had a lot of good ones go to waste. Last year, 21 was the total. Then it was, you know, 18, 17, 16, 15. Like, you know, there wasn't, there's not a lot of wins out there anymore.

Eight games he had. Kyle Wright stole them. Six innings pitched or more, two and runs or less. He had eight where he did not get a win. Yeah, 185 in a third innings last year, 2.48 ERA plus of 164. I mean, he's kind of, he's finding it. And he's going to have the gold glove on which I think kind of blinds the hitter. When you see a pitcher with a gold glove, you're like, damn, I can't even bun on this guy.

What fuck am I supposed to do? I wanted to do debacks ones, but they just weren't available. Like Zach Gallin and Zach Davies each had 12 starts last year, where they went five innings pitch, two run runs or less. Like, you know, should get you a win if you have a decent offensive team and bullpen. 12 each where they got the loss or a no decision. A decision. Penn led us down last year. Gallen only handed his bullpen a losing game six times in 31 starts.

And I don't know how many wins he had, but it was 12. 12. What's 31 minus 18? I'm sure. I'm sure a decent amount of those. You see how quick I did that? Score was not really on him. Yeah, maybe.

Yeah. Could have been a two zip. Yeah. So, but they didn't offer those. I know we say we don't talk about Zach Gallant enough, but like, do we really not talk about Zach Gallant enough? Like, is he someone that we're missing?

Big difference when he has his glasses on and the glasses off. Oh. The perception of like, like, is he a Maddox-Hendrix professor pitcher? Interesting point, James. Or is he like, you know, Misenkum, Moxie, the colors pitcher. He goes from Moxie to Professor, glasses on, glasses off. I just saw it.

He was doing an interview, glasses off. And then they were showing highlights of him glasses on. And I was like, that's two different people. The Beast, X-Men. That's cool. Yeah. What happened in the Jazz versus Zach game? You know, Jazz and him, they were talking how they wanted to beat each other.

Didn't Zach Gallen kind of just punch his tip? take it three times. Is that right? In my head, I think Jazz got them once because isn't Jazz a lot more hype for it than than Gallin? I forget. I don't know. I love that. I want more of that. More guys being like,

I don't like this guy. I want to go hit off him and a pitcher be like, I'm going to fucking straight. I need more of that. Yeah. Oh, for three. Fly ball, fly ball, ground out. Do you like put a charge into one of them too? I feel like I remember that highlight. Kind of not fair. Like if you're a pitcher, you're supposed. to win.

I'm a hitter guy. Such a hitter. I want to see more of it. The hitters. One game, too, for a hitter's tough. Like, give me, give me three games against you. We'll see what the numbers are. We'll give that to you.

Like, me and Cece have beef. Does he know that? No, I'm just kidding. I want to be his friend, but I don't think he cares to be my friend. I, like, I, like, commented on a Twitter thing that he wrote, and he didn't even fucking look at it right now. He doesn't tweet. Oh, he doesn't tweet?

Well, hey, Cece, you're intern. Let's go, man. Like, yeah. Just trying to be boys. Some agency. I did pump you once. Oh. Mm.

On or off the field. I love Cece. I really think we'd be, we'd be like good buddies, but he has no interest in me. Just give Trevor a chance, man. It's tough. All right. We want to go to locks? Well, I've got a sprinkle.

Oh, yeah. We got B. Bebebebe's, Bebe Spinkle. Bebebs Sprinkle is, the guy we've talked about a good amount this offseason. He was picked in our Say Young draft, and Jolly Olive also picked him to win Say Young. I'm going to sprinkle on Christian Javier. I've already done it weeks ago, plus 1,800 to win Say Young. They're asking him to do a lot more in Houston with Verlander leaving.

They let the Syung winner from last year go because they have this guy and a bunch of other dudes. ready to rip. I think we're kind of all on the Javier train, so why not sprinkle a little bit of cheddar on that Siyang winner from Christian Javier? Wanted him real bad in the Siong draft. Tried to wait out, Jake on that, got cute with it. So you got him in that, but I'm sprinkling.

Jolly's been hot. Jolly's picked a Siong winner three years in a row. This will be the third in a row. That's crazy. Two in a row. He's done two. This will be three. Three in a row will be crazy.

He's going for three. Might as well. I've already got him locked in, even though it's a sprinkle. Pencil it in. Your batting stance when you hit this Homer off CC? It's odd stance. Very upright, Treff.

I was trying to figure it out, man. 70-30? Just straight up? Straight up. Pencil. Dead center, though. Oh, hit the cement top of the wall, bounced over. they all count

they all count all count all lucky I wasn't out there I don't love my lock which I think you're supposed to love but I just couldn't find anything I think you are supposed to love your lock yeah I don't love it

out of all the ones I said this is I'm like whatever Cardinals to win in the division what's the juice of that one 150 minus 150 or something like that I looked at it minus 125

yeah that's a great luck I made that bet last year at one. Yours was even better. What's wrong that one? Somehow plus money to make playoffs. It was Cardinals to make the playoffs at plus money. So Draft Kings tied it up.

Yeah. They were, they got a new MLB guy. They were loose. They got a new MLB guy. Yeah. Jimmy, you said that you didn't love that one. You're like the guy that has like the beautiful wife that like takes care of him.

He like treats her poorly. Like dude, like that's a nice lock that you have there. Like appreciate it. Oh, it's just boring. Like last year I had the Astros. to win more than the Yankees. The year before that, I had the Yankees to win more than,

they're like more interesting, fun things. You love to find a creative bet. This was a boring slate of bets, in my opinion, because they tightened it up. If you think that one's boring, wait till you hear of mine, my shit's like a library boring.

Okay. All right. Seattle Mariners to make the playoffs, yes, at minus 150. I saw that one too, and then I thought Angels fans were really like, you know,

a top five team in the AL. I saw that. Three team in AL according to Chris Rose. Maybe top five. too. I saw that and I thought, oh, Angels fans are just going to be mad

if we do that. And then I was like, well, what are the Angels? And then the team's going to make the playoffs. Angels are to not make the playoffs. Are Angels fans so mad all the time?

No one thinks your team's good, not just me. And the Otani. Yeah, but they act like if you say something bad about them, it's a minority. You're the first. You're the only person that dislight or doesn't have faith in them.

And like, their odds are worse than last year. And to not make the playoffs by, like the professional who think of this stuff. But if I say something, they're like, Jimmy, he thinks they're awful. I'm like, what?

Everyone does. I only listen to Nate Steele when it comes to you. I love an angel's talk. He, I think what he's expressed to me is that we should talk about more than just like Otani leaving or the fact they haven't made the playoffs with Otani and Trout. They want to talk, you know, more like get into the specifics. And I get that, dude. Because how many times do they have to hear that?

Well, until they change it. They have to change their own narrative. Yeah. At this point. And I will be more than happy if they do. I love Rendon. Sand of all. No, you don't.

No, you don't. What? You don't love Rendon. Opposites attract, Trev. You might like him. I wish I could have, I wish I could be in Rendon's body for a day. Do you love Rendon more than he hates baseball?

No. Okay. I didn't think so. No, no, no. I love the idea of Rendon. Like I hate him. hates baseball. Just bored at the plate,

bored in the field. It's too good at it. I just have to do it. It's unfortunate. I wish I wasn't so good at the stupid sport. So what do we get? We got Mariners to make the playoffs, Cardinals to win the division?

Yep. Okay. I'll go away from the teams, although Guardians are over 86 and a half. What are we doing, D.K. Your baseball guy missed that one. But that's not. That won't be.

my lock. You already got that. Which way do you have it? Over. Over. Okay. You already got that in the team profile and projection. So I'll go to another player. And like I said, I'm going to take another over. You know, last year was a little too easy for, again, me and Jimmy that I'm going to put my neck out there a little more. I'm going to go with an over. Freddie Freeman hits over under 171.5. Freddie Freeman, again, going back on my health speech.

Freddie Freeman over the past five seasons has missed 10 games. He's played 698 out of 708 games. Freddie Freeman switched teams, you know, Dodgers from the Braves. He led the NL and hits last year with 199. He hit 180 the year before. In a full season, he hasn't hit under 170 hits since 2017. The guy's a hit machine. I don't know if people were shifting on him.

Not that it mattered anyways. But as long as Freddie plays, which he's done for the past five years, I think it's as safe as an overlock as you can find on the board. So I'll take Frederick. Got hits. What was his stretch last year?

He hit like 500 for 18 games or something like that. I mean, that's, you know, you can end up spinning it either way. He kind of had a slower start than people expected for Freddie last year. and then he went nuts down the stretch. So if it's more balanced or if he has a better first half, I think Freddie's going to end up there.

He's another guy that I feel like I'd be really good friends with, but I don't think he wants anything to do with me. He's busy. He'll come around once he's done with baseball. Yeah. He's a Cali guy. He's kind of like draws a line. He's like players, active players only.

And then once he goes into the retired end of career community, He'll hit you up. You're a media member, too. Like, what's it like out here? Yeah. They always said that once you get done playing. No one wants to hang out with you. It's kind of true.

Yeah. Brady's really good. Holy crap. Like his, on his baseball reference page. I know, he's one of those ones. You get on and you're like, okay. Easy Hall of Fame good.

Like. And a lot of high MVP finishes. Like, this guy's stacking shit. Yeah, the, uh, What was it? The first half last year. No. These are his first half, second half splits.

321, 397 and 926 OPS in the first half. 331, 421, and 907 OPS in the second half. I mean, the guy is, the game shouldn't be that easy. Bieber? Oh, one more lock. Yep. One more lock. And I hate to be this Homer guy, but.

Garrett Cole over 234 and a half strikeouts. He has, since he's left Pittsburgh, he's cleared that with ease every year. He stays healthy every year, knock on all the wood. Yankees need that right now, but dude stays healthy and pitches. He's a strikeout guy who gets way more than that every year. So strikeouts are we going to become a little more in fashion with shifts going away? You want to keep balls out of play if you're a pitch or, more.

I was trying to do a deep dive on pitchers linked to sticky stuff with the new, with the, just the searches being different now or more, more than just fingertips, random and trying to see if I could find anything that lined up to them. So like looking at Cole, looking at Houston to search for an under with reason. But they didn't have any lines on some certain things there. If you look at Frambers, if you look at Framber's, if you look at Framber's staff, That's July and early August of 2021. Not great.

K rate on his curveball is like not even there. And I wonder if that comes into play at all. Yeah, I want to, they haven't really been doing extensive checks in spring training, or at least I haven't noticed it. I think what they said was they're going to be more random with them, right? And if a player wipes his hands on his jersey before going to the, they're going to like check the jersey now.

You know, more stuff that is like, Pure logic. Oh, he keeps wiping the back of his hat. Maybe we should look at his hat. Why does that guy only wear the dark jersey every time he pitches? Okay. I don't know if I love my bets again this year.

I'm just too optimistic. They tighten the screws. Good on them. Do you guys want to play the salary, career earnings game on Freddie Freeman? I have it up. Sure. To date or total? So go, so let's go to date first. He's 32.

175. My brain went to 200. Then I was going to go down. So I'm with Jake. You guys are right on it. 187. Split together. They got a hundred and eight left to go.

The guy's going to be right at the 300 mark come 2027. Yeah, but you haven't even talked about, you know, his managers and agents and taxes and all the stuff that comes off. Yeah. Yeah. It's not that much. money. Next contract going back to Atlanta. Like there's a lot going on. And that 1% will go to the donation. Yeah. The fun. So he'll be 37 when his contract is done with the Dodgers. So we're paying guys. He's got another what? Three years after that at about 25 to 30 a clip.

Does his contract? Maybe. Does it look like a steal now compared to all the contracts to go to 40 years old? 27 million a year for the next five years. So well judge is only getting 40 mill a year so yeah not bad what a year in the words of my wise wife jessica Jake you should have played baseball hmm say yeah babe you said i did i did oh i did they uh there are teams you had to pay to play for it's a little bit of a different angle uh all right well all right Well, good betting everybody. Yeah. Really good job.

You mentioned them at the top, but make sure you're using Seekykech code Johnboy preseason if you're going to any of the games around town this weekend, save yourself 15% off, whether you're first time by or not. It's Seekkeek. Only a couple more days of that code being active. Season's no longer pre. So you probably already know what game you're going to. You know one game you want to go to.

So lock in those tickets. Yeah, I got a game I'm trying to go to. I was trying to buy tickets. Where are you going? One of the Fridays, I was going to bring Katie. Nice. She's wanted to go,

but tickets weren't really like available. Yeah. Last time I checked. They were available, but they weren't like, no one was reselling them yet. I was like, these are going to come down

when we get closer to it. Can I address them? I don't play preseason. Yeah, address it. All right. Dick Bremer came on the air with Justin Moreno yesterday, a couple days ago, and said that it sounds like I'm going to be me. I think I'm going to be in the booth of them on some of the West Coast games for the twins

when they face the Angels and the Dodgers, which is cool. He said it on air, so I kind of feel like I need to address it. Nothing official yet with that. We've had some talks. I'm interested in it. I'd like to do it on my, I'm kind of on my terms. I'd like to talk to him about it.

But we are in talks, pre and post and some stuff in the booth. I want to do it. I want to talk twins. I made it a point. I told Teddy yesterday, I said, we're going to watch every twins game this year. He said, who?

To watch every twins game. What team daddy? I'm a Dodgers fan. Yeah, he's like, I like the Phillies. Trey Turner. He fucking loves Trey, Turner. And Shohay.

And he's disappointed than Mike Trout, but I said, don't be disappointed in Mike Trout, please. Points at Tray Turner and does he say like, that's the cooler version of you,

Dad. You know what's, yeah, kind of. You know what's, fuck James. Trey Turner's the cooler version. He's the cooler version

of a lot of people. Yeah. I know. You're totally right. I think all of us. It might be cooler than him. Like, he's just better than me.

See, yeah, you're the only person that that actually hurts. You know, someone says that the gym, me or B. I have this youth team and I get to hear like their opinions on baseball and I feel like

they're kind of like poignant like they're they get it like right now all of them they're like like Mike Trout like he lost oh hmm like that kind of sucks for Mike Trout like I was like guys I tell them like just relax a little bit this is one at bad against fucking show hey of ton you should see the other team he's on one at bad for the state of the old that's the thing is these guys They love the WBC. They loved it. And, you know, the ending image they had is Shohei striking out Mike Trout. Damn.

It's tough to be a baseball player. All right. That's everything. Thanks, guys. Appreciate you. Enjoy the baseball. Opening day. Live stream.

Join us. Monday. First recapper. JM baseball live stream. Thursday all day. Awesome. Bye. Thanks. Big son.

Look this. You see how relaxed I look right now? You got the sun coming through your American flag still or what? Dude, that's a great addition to my room.