Talkin' Baseball (MLB Podcast) - Predicting Remainder of MLB Season With What We Know!

Episode Date: May 21, 2025

Get the edge on your shave with Harry’s. Use our exclusive link, https://harrys.com/TALKIN, for an $8 Trial Set and free gift!Book your next trip at https://www.bestwestern.comVisit https://www.directv.com/jomboy to learn more!Download the DraftKings Sportsbook app and use promo code JMBASEBALLUse code TALKIN2025 for 10% off your next SeatGeek order*: https://seatgeek.onelink.me/RrnK/TALK.... Sponsored by SeatGeek. *Restrictions apply. Max $20 discount Coach Trev and Talkin Jake look back at their preseason predictions, apologize to teams they didn't think would be performing, how both American and National Leagues will shake up and more! 0:00 Intro3:38 Looking back att off season over/unders4:35 San Francisco Giants11:54 St. Louis Cardinals17:30 Can an NL Central team compete for WIld Card spot?22:00 Other preseason under / overs22:30 Boston Red Sox31:00 apologizing to teams35:50 Atlanta Braves42:00 Future Bets right now42:50 Who's winning the American League44:12 Aaron Judge48:00 AL Rookie of the Year50:55 Who's winning National League51:25 NL Rookie of the Year52:30 NL Cy Young watch54:10 Checking in on Prop bets57:00 Betting the Cycle Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Hello and welcome to Talking Baseball. We are giving some teams some love that deserve them. And we're going to motivate a couple other teams. We're going to check in on some early year bets, and we might find some new ones for you. Let's talk about. Kyle Hendricks. What's up with that?

Come on. Abusing Jake's. Hello and welcome to Talking Baseball presenting you by Seekek Talk in 2025. I'm Jake Storyally. That is Trevor Plouf. Rob Chiracca was here. This is a job. John Boy Media Joint.

We are talking ball today. It is May 21st about the quarter pull of the season, Treb. We had some teams hit their 40th game, Quick Math, 40, 80, 80 times 2, 160, and then there's two bonus games. So that's a, it's a math pod. We are going to check in on some of our preseason looks, and we were like, how do we want to do this? We want to give some teams some love that kind of we both missed on

and a little reflection of why. And maybe do we think that's going to continue or maybe are we selling a little stock? And then a couple of the other teams that it just feels like we've missed on or maybe teams that we have partially missed on to this point, but we've got to see something change with them the rest of the ways. And we're going to do some player-focused stuff at the end. We're yucking ball, baby.

Treb. How are you? I'm doing great. I'm excited about this episode because, it is fun to look back and say, where were we during the off season? Were we messing around? Do we have legitimate reasons for why we pick these things? What teams are totally,

did we totally miss the mark on? There's a couple of them. Spoiler alert. So it's good, yeah. Quarterway through the season. I'm excited also to look at our prop bets. Because those are, I think over-unders are tough.

Our prop bets are kind of what we, like, you and I look at and say, what did we get right? this year and there's a little bit more competition there. And Jimmy was a part of that one too, so I'm excited to see his. And I've said excited now four times. We're built on competition. Let's get into a little bit.

We're going to start with some of the teams and then we'll zoom in a little bit on it. And yeah, well, if you have no idea, we do a preseason episode or, well, we do over unders throughout our team profile and projections where we end up with an over-under from draft kings on every team. And then we kind of look back and we're like, oh, my God. Like, what? I picked way too many overs this year. I'd rather not even say the number on it. But I'm currently doing well.

I'm currently would be in the green. I'm on pace for 17, right. I will be honest, there's a few teams that are too close to call right now for their over-unders, D-backs, Blue Jays, Nationals, A's, Marlins, and White Sox. There won't be a ton of that on this discussion. Although D-backs, I think you could see them get in the mix as they had another chaotic loss last night. God, where would they be if they had maybe the San Francisco Giants bullpen, who I do think they could be one of the teams we start off talking about.

Because Trev, we, right now teams that you and I were in lockstep on for over-unders in the team profile and projections that we are currently both correct on. in alphabetical order. How do you like that? The Chicago Cubs who have been playing above their ski. Cincinnati, who again, the bar was kind of lower than I think we expected. Cleveland seems like a layup every year. Houston, Kansas City, the New York Yankees, the A's, Philadelphia, Seattle, and Toronto.

We were both currently incorrect on Arizona, Boston, the White Sox, the Angels, the Dodgers, Milwaukee. that we were peacocking on before the season, although they got a couple now. Pittsburgh, San Francisco, St. Louis, and Texas. So we wanted to start off this exercise by giving some teams some love. And Trev, I think the one that you felt the most thrown off about,

looking back on this in hindsight, because we did a lot of these over-unders in February and March. It's almost June, which is insane, quarter-pole of the season. the one that jumped out to you the most was the San Francisco Giants because the over-under was also, it was 80 and a half. So it was, will the Giants be 500? We both went under. And what was that coach?

Well, I asked Robbie, hey, can you go back and check what we said? And I'm trying to rack my brain. Obviously, we knew the NL West was going to be a really good division. We knew the NL in general was going to be a really good division. and the only thing I could think of, because I do remember us talking about the lineup and say, hey, there's a bunch of professional hitters in this lineup. It's going to be,

they're going to put up good at bat. The bullpen, I think maybe we were like, okay, they're, they could be okay. They've been better than okay. And the only thing I can think of, Jake, is we're questioning the depth of the starting pitching. Like, is that what we were looking at?

Because you're right. I mean, 81 games gets them the over, and that's 500 ball. to me, if I could go back in time and look at that, I would say 500 seems right for this team. Obviously, we know that they've outperformed that. They're on a pace to win almost 96 games right now. But 500 ball, we said under that. It's kind of crazy to me. So, you know, look, Robbie Ray has been great.

Obviously, Logan Webb, you kind of can set it and forget it with him in his seasons. He's been great as well. They have made a few adjustments to the rotation. and they've gotten by with that bullpen, with the defense. Hayden Bird's song, your favorite is now in the rotation. Yeah. Little swapsies with our guy Hicks.

And he actually had a nice start to start his starting career off. Start the starting this year. Treve, I think the other thing that, you know, they got out of the gates great. And we're also scared of the division, right? Like the dimebacks brought in Corbyn Burns. The Padres still had a little bit of respect from us. We didn't know where it was going to land.

And the Dodgers are obviously the Dodgers. I think when you're doing these over-unders, it's kind of, at a certain point you've got to pick your poison, which maybe we need to stop thinking that way, because with less divisional games, maybe things don't end up there. I will say that the thing that I saw Giants fans commenting last episode on, that I think we need to bring to the forefront,

the best bullpen in baseball. First in ERA, first in whip. The Camilo Doval resurgence is back. Randy Rodriguez has been great for them. I think that's something coming into the season and that magical Giants 21 season that it feels like a loophole. Yes, they had Buster Posey playing out of his dome. That team was best in bullpen ERA.

And that's just something coming into the year. We look at all these bullpins, and there's a couple that jumped out. Like, obviously the Dodgers before the season and a couple other teams that you're like, yeah, I know a lot of those dudes. The bullpen, it feels like it comes and goes a little bit. But this Giants bullpen has been the best in baseball. I mean, that's kind of what we've seen from them as well. Like, the offense hasn't gone nuts.

I mean, they've had, you know, some players that have, I mean, like, Elliot Ramos seems to be the real deal. 47 OPS right now. Zhang Huli's been great upon, you know, his return. And obviously, you can't talk about the Giants without talking about our guy, Wilmer Flores. Yeah, bad. He was just had an absolutely great year.

Tyler Fitzgerald put up a 786 OPS right now. So they have some guys, and you look at the guys who we thought maybe would be getting the job. I mean, Chapman really hasn't gone off offensively, 734 PS. Willie Adomis has not played well this year. And obviously, for them, the crown jewel of their offseason. he hasn't even really got it going again on pace for 96 wins so is there room for improving switching the rotation up maybe we get with adamas to go and Matt Chapman

to go and that left side of the infill becomes what we imagined it would be so it's a tough one for us it's a tough look for us shake 80 and a half we picked the under with our San Francisco Giants Rob what do you know way bow Mel was going to let that happen yeah I do I do have some notes from our TPP okay um well one thing that you guys I think started off with was how mid the 2024 Giants were. Sure. And so that kind of, I think, set the tone a little bit. But then Trev, you questioned the lineup.

You said you like this lineup, but can it be enough? Where does the dreaming start? And that's veterans have to outperform. They have a bunch of talented ball players on it. They need to overproduce. Jake, you called Elliot Ramos and Fitzgerald to break out. Jung-Hoo-Lee predictions. looking great.

Okay. You said the Giants fans aren't winning the division and they know that. Like the fans know that, but they, you know, could sneak in. And that basically, you know, you picked the under, but you both hope they were, you were wrong. Look at that. That seems like cop out to me. Seems like a cop out. We record three or four of these a day and sometimes we get tired at the end.

Feels like a cop-out. Maybe that was just a couple old dudes getting tired. No, I think we were rooting for the Giants. I mean, there's a lot. They've invested in this team, Buster Posey. I mentioned 21. He's now, like, calling the shots there. And I'm glad Jung Hu Lee gets the shout out there, too,

because I know Ramos has been going, but what he was to start this season and who he is as a ball player, I think we both underestimated it, because we saw, what, a 40-game sample last year that was kind of below league average. And he's proven he's a lot more than that. So happy for our Giants' faith. as we record this, they're 29 and 20.

One game back from the Dodgers in first place. So, uh, yo. This episode is brought to you guys by Harry's. Hello, Harry. In pro sports, even a little edge can be the winning advantage. And in shaving, Harries gives you the sharpest edge with their razors. Trev lives by Harry's. In an industry of overpriced and underperforming products,

Harry's is your everyday MVP. German engineered blades made in their own factory that stay sharp, longer. Options, delivery options for scheduled refills as low as $2. And right now, you can get a five blade razor, weighted handle, foaming shave gel, and a travel cover for just $8. Plus a free gifted harries.com slash talking. Not only can you get amazing razors. they also have so many other personal care things,

deodorant, lotion, body wash. Get the edge on your shave with Harry's. Normally their trial set is $10. Right now we can get it for eight, baby. How do you like that? And a free gift at harries.com slash talking. Harries.com slash talking $8 trial set and a free gift. I like that.

I shaved with Harry's last night. I had a dinner that I went to. I look great. And go try to buy a razor at the store for eight bucks. Can't do it. Can't play with them. Can't do it. Trev, I guess one of the other teams,

if we're going to continue the love train, before we might have to pivot a little bit, it's been a team we have been talking about a lot. The St. Louis Cardinals. I'm glad you went there. I got the page up. Yeah, man. I know.

We're in lockstep, bro. And as always, we shout out Katie Wu, because she's just the best. And these Cardinals have kind of been playing the best recently. And we talked about how the offense has become real. Coming into the season, the over-under, I think it was 77 and a half. And kind of how could you be excited, though, Trev?

They didn't do anything. They admitted it. They have a GM, like on the way out with the new GM ready to go working on the minor leagues, which, by the way, is looking just absolutely brilliant right now. But I think it, I was going to say it starts with the offense, but the rotation's been fantastic too. Maybe more teams should do that.

Like a transitional period for your front office, it makes a ton of sense. I guess the circumstances are right here. If you've been the GM for a long time, it's different than if you just kind of get fired. I don't know, man. I think that's what we were thinking in the over-under aspect here

is what was going to go on with their roster. We talked about Aeronado being traded. We talked about Ryan Helsie. being traded. And then we're like, you know, what, what's this, what's this team going to look like? We've seen these guys now for a couple years offensively, you know, are they going to over, overproduce? But it's been a little bit of that. It's been a little bit of like the new guys coming up and having great seasons, Victor Scott second. Brandon Donvin obviously has kind of established himself in a league. He leads the league at the National League and hits and doubles right now. So you're right.

It hasn't been actually just one thing for them. It hasn't been like, oh, it's offensive explosion. they've been pretty consistently good offensively, but it's been their defense, it's been their starting pitching, it's been the back end of their bullpen, like they've just played good baseball, and they've won series, like stacked up series wins, man.

So what was the over-under again? 77 and a half, and it's... We both took the under. That's, I mean, we had some reasons. But I think we might owe them more of an apology than the San Francisco giant. Well, I'm interested to see, the next steps. Because for me, we're feeling great about the cubbies. The Cubbies have felt electric.

The Cardinals are only two games back of them, by the way. But the Cubbies have felt great. They're one of the teams that I think people wanted to believe in the season, and they have. You and me, we're both currently right on their over, and it feels like they're a team trending towards 90-ish wins. I guess what's interesting to me are the always enigmatic Reds, who are back to 500, and feel like they're playing a better brand of baseball. The Brewers have a soft part of their schedule. Is that going to help them kick into gear? They're a game below 500.

And I think the thing that we unfortunately had a read on, the pirates are still just not relevant in that division or in baseball, besides one man who takes the mound every fifth day, that they're 16 and 33, that I'm the evolution of this National League Central is going to be really fun. A lot of eyes on the AL Central this year, but the NL Central might be coming because it feels like the Cardinals have gained serious momentum. The Reds, again, I'm not ready to fully give in yet, but they've been playing better.

And I think the Brewers' best baseball is yet to come because it hasn't happened yet, and that's a team that always that this NL Central, we get caught up in the coast a lot and how good is the National League that I think we might have more central talk about that. they went 11 and 16 in april jake and they them and the twins went on their runs 13 and 5 in may for the st louis cardinal that's that's how you get to where they're at right now and essential to me it's it's it is interesting you know i do feel like the brewers have better baseball in front of them and they're getting their medicine right now playing the orioles that's kind of i mean hey you want to get on track play the Orioles right now. That's the bottom line. So they're getting their their ways going.

The reds are yeah, they're going to be there too, man. And then what we've seen now, like these over unders, we don't want, we always tell ourselves, hey, we don't want to pick a ton of overs because it kind of has to like even itself out. So you want to be around 15 overs, 15 unders. We kind of get caught up and over sometimes because we want to be optimistic. And that's just the offseason feel. We were talking before the show. All the take. makes is a few teams to be really shitty and you can have a bunch of over. So right now the Rockies are on pace

for 27 wins. That's... The Pittsburgh Pirates stink. The Orioles stink. The White Sox stink. Like, if those teams are really bad, then we can't have other teams exploiting that. Cardinals really have none. They're four and two against the pirates right now, but

they obviously have they have playoff aspirations now and all those guys that we thought they might trade. I don't see them doing that. Can you imagine? It's going to be very interesting to where the standings lie, because think about everything we've talked about in the National League. We haven't really talked about an NL Central team competing for a wild card, and it's still tough to picture. Think about the East, Met's Phillies, Braves, think about the West, all four of those teams not named the Rockies,

that if you're the Cubs, I guess the other thing where I'm thinking now, if you're the Cubs, you got to build something up because what if the Cardinals at the deadline? What if these teams stay in it? You got a long summer ahead and you're going to have a scary fall that you don't want to be. Think about, okay, Mets fans are going to take this the wrong way. But remember when they led the NL East that whole year and then they got caught by the Braves the last week? Like the NL Central, you got to be careful. You don't, in September, if the Cubs have a three game lead,

that might be the scariest place to be, man, because it feels like that's going to be a one-bid division. And I wouldn't want to give any of these teams hope because hope is a dangerous thing. Big Story-Elli. I really hope it's not a one-bid team. I like the way you put that. Nice phrasing right there.

But it has to be, Trev. Because think about... Yeah, no, you look around. You're right. You're right. Like, N.O. West is going to put up some dull. you're talking at least at least three NOS teams

I feel like are going to make the playoff so there's only three spots left two division champions so one extra wildcards and you're thinking probably the NLE so yeah I mean oh my god right expand the playoffs more people

come on let's get everybody in there to end the season the Cubs play the Pirates the Red the Mets and then the Cardinals Oh, give me, give me end of...

Cardinals at the end? Give me end of season. At the end of season schedule watch on May 21st. That's why we're here, people. Another thing the Cardinals have going that I, again, I don't want this to reflect in a negative way. They only have one guy on the IL, Zach Thompson.

Otherwise, you know, knock on wood if you're in St. Louis, that lineup and that rotation have held up. And that's another one of the things when we do. this preseason, that's something we can't, cannot predict. Well, I mean, okay, you tell me Cardinals fans. I mean, Ivan Herrera has, you know, put, he had an 800 OPS last year, you know, only 57 of Batsby's 1.3 in it right now. Okay, we can have that one. We call it a small sample size, whatever it is.

Same thing with C.JC. But Brendan Donovan doing what he's done and like a Yo'Hel Pozo doing what he's done. Like, was that on your bingo card? I don't know, man. Yes. Even Mason win the offensive season that he's had has been great. He's 775 OPS. Lars Neupar has really found a stride here. I don't know.

I don't know what we were thinking, Dick. I guess it was a lot of the fodder of the front office and trades. That does get us in the off season because we worry, like, if they get off to a slow start, they're going to trade everyone, then that's where our heads were at. But the flip side of that is if you get up to a strong start, you're not going to trade anything. And that's kind of where the Cardinals right now. Bobby, could you get a picture of Yoel Pozo up? Because he's currently my favorite body in baseball.

Ooh, there's a couple now. Moises Ballesteros? Yeah, another, in the Hennell Central. That's how we breed them. That's how we breed him. That's how we breed him. Just got sent down by these Cardinals. Carson Muscusker.

That's going to be your new one. And I wasn't going to, this isn't shaming at all. Yoel Pozo, he's that good thick. His baseball reference currently just a lie listed at 511-201. and that's that's off. I'm 6-1-198. You and Yo-Hel-Posa are built different, both in beautifully respective ways.

Yeah, how about the Cardinals' catching position? That's something they used to get a lot. Wilson Contreras has kind of kicked into gear offensively. That Cardinals' offense, I guess we didn't predict that. Well, he is the first base. Right, I know. How wild is that? Trev, I do think we need to start spinning,

I guess I was going to say negative, but maybe a little bit of a motivational way. Unless there's anything you'd like to say about our incorrect, I guess the Dodgers are currently incorrect because that win total was very high. It was very high and we were just like at the end of our TPP's, like, let's go, Dodgers, go win 116 game.

Texas Rangers, that's still too close to call. I guess Trev, and the tone in my voice, a team that has been very 500 this year, very mid, and they play in my AL East, and they became one of the favorites in the American League. And you were one of the guys driving the bus, and I won't say I was on the bus, because my favorite team is their rival.

but the Boston Red Sox, the over under when we did their team, 86 and a half, they're on pace for 81 games. They have been content-wise a delicious baseball team this year, going from spring training to still through now, as Rafael Devers is destroying baseballs. Just will not play first base. Where are you at with your Boston Red Sox? Jake, I had very...

very high hopes for this team and it just has not come to fruition. I think I don't even know if like the drama has really played a part in that. Because like as you said, the one guy that it really affected was Raphael Devers and he's absolutely tearing the cover off the ball. It's been more of the starting pitching. It's been more of the bullpen. So I guess that whole side of things just hasn't gone right for them. But when you look back, Jake,

and I know they added some people, I had a crochet out of Bregman. So that changes things. But they haven't had a winning season since 2021. Crazy. Like, they were exactly 500 last year before that 78 wins two years in a row. Like, I thought Alex Corr was supposed to be this whisperer. Oh, here we go.

Here we go. What's he whispering? Whatever he whispered to Devers is working, because Devers his last 22 games, 393, a 490 on base and a 1.2. Yeah, I just, I don't. It's been the pitching. process obviously he gets hurt even before that was not happening Christian Campbell got off to a hot start

he's been nosediving since Trevor Story 616 OPS you know they've had some guys go you mentioned Devers you mentioned I mean will your brayu is like one of my favorite players in baseball right now he's as solid as it comes dude I always want to compare like a like a stocky outfiel Jason Kubal Disney cool was when I go back and look at his baseball reference he wasn't that good I thought he was the freaking best hitter I've ever seen. He had a couple nice seasons. It's tough to be...

Shout out Jason Kubel. I love you, Coobes. It's tough to be really good. In my mind, it's like you were a Superman. Tough to be really good for a really long time. Treve, I think we're... The elephant in the room, Garrett Crochet has been... Garrett Crochet.

Everything else. It's been... It's been atrocious. 23rd and starting pitching ERA and 26 and Whip. And if you butterknife crochet out of that, I mean, you're in Rockies... territory, which, again, they're on pace to not win 30 games this year. The Red Sox offense, they're six in runs.

Like, they're back. Bregman's been amazing. Devers has been incredible of late. That, yeah, I, and I don't know what you do, because that's a weird feeling. Walker Bueller just came back and the ejection last night was insanity. That's one of the worst on shows I've seen in a while. Like that just changed. seen it Mike Estabrobrook tells him to

get back on the mound. Well, he's on the mound. He's on the mound. While computer's like, what are you talking about? And the fact you can't argue balls and strikes, that's ridiculous. Right. Like, how soft are you guys? What the game's built on. I'm about that mock turtle, too. That's what happened.

His neck was a little warm. You got a little agitated. Yeah. I, you know, I think he's Telling him. Is he a mohat? Flip you. That one of the worst I'm shows I've ever seen.

I guess what... How many blown saves do they have? Blown saves. Rob's on it right now. Hey, they might... It's medicine season. After they finish this Mets series, which it's Crochet.

They have Baltimore for four. So that's been helping every team around baseball. I just... When the rotation is giving you those kind of What can you do? I don't want to bring up your bad twins memories, but that's a bad feeling when you're rolling up to the ballpark.

It is. And they're going to have to turn to some different guys. I mean, Hunter Dobbins, I watched him throw. Like, he's got some stuff. He's a location. He's a young pitcher. Location's always going to be the biggest thing for a starting pitcher, but the stuff plays.

Bayo's been solid yet unspectacular. But the other guys, I mean, Tanner Halk has been, that obviously just it's been I that's tough for him right now sitting with an eight ERA negative 1.6 war and isn't he like close to what where's he yet in his service time yeah he's just starting he's just starting to make a little cash in arbitration like you got a that's tough pill to swallow for him because he you know he's had a chance there to really establish himself in the rotation and start to earn some coin and just hasn't gone his way at all Halk on the aisle now and Cutter Crawford, who, again, had been really steady for them,

which at Fenway Park is tough to do. Bobby Blone saves? They lead the major leagues in base, uh, lead the major leagues. Do you think it's under over eight? It's over. It is over at 11. I, I saw somewhere they had more blown saves than saves at one point. Which that hurts, man. I think not only.

percent of the 21 saves opportunities so far. 48%. Not only does that hurt your record. Right. Of those games. That's good analysis right there. But the vibes of your team. It kills you, man.

When you have the lead and then you blow the save going back into the locker room and you're all looking at each other like, what the hell just happened? Right. And you're kind of like want to point some fingers, but you can't. Right. And then you're like, well, as an offense, maybe we should just get out of a save situation. Just try to beat the ball around and then you put pressure on yourselves. It just starts to snowball. It's the worst thing for a club is blown safe.

Well, you can get blown out and it's better than blowing it. Right. We just got our teeth kicked in today. Yes. I guess there is a positive spin there. The Red Sox have had a chunk of their rotation not performing. The Red Sox have the most blown saves that, okay, even if half of those blown saves were gone, how would we be talking about the Red Sox?

They'd probably be neck and neck with the Yankees. So maybe if there's some solutions to be had there, interested to see Boston's... What are they going to do with their starting pitching, Jake? Interested to see Boston's journey the rest of the way. There's a little word play in there. That is. A couple of classic rock bands.

Nice. A couple people got that reference. I played Wu-Tang for. for my son and his friend who I took home from school yesterday at a play date? They had no idea who it was. No clue. No clue.

Well, maybe you guys could get a clue and go to Best Western. Hit the road. Summer's like here. I can't believe it. It's Memorial Day weekend coming up. And today's episode is brought to you by Best Western Hotels and Resorts. Life is a trip.

And there's 400,000 Best Western Hotels worldwide. So wherever you are. 400,000? That number was wrong. It's 4,000. Okay. Either way, it's a lot. You know, once the number gets over 100 for me, it all kind of blends in.

Whether you're chasing the big game, met a nice lady on the train who does a baseball road trip every year. You could be those people or whatever you do, wherever life takes you. Make the wrong turn a right turn. With Best Western,

go check them out that I just booked it feeling with Best Western can be one of the best ones once you actually do it you're thinking of your vacation you haven't done it I think I want to do once you do it's let's go back Best Western they've got you covered pack your bag queue up the playlist a road trip playlist life's a trip make the most of it at best Western All right, Treb, before we get into some player stuff, let's, let's, you and me,

we each have some lone wolves right, we each have some lone wolves wrong. Let's give out an early, maybe quarter season, apology to a team that we had the wrong read on. I'll lump two together, actually. So you pick the over for Detroit and the over for the Mets. We've talked about this a little bit on the program, Jake, where I missed there.

I did have some legitimate concerns for both those teams. Right now, they're both playing. really good baseball. Detroit, I question the lineup, and I don't think that that's that big of a deal. They've had some great seasons out of nowhere. McKinstree, Torkelson, Hobby freaking Bayez. So, like, I had concerns. They've answered them. I think their pitching has been even better than I thought it would be. And I knew the rotation was going to be good. I didn't give it enough credence. They're just playing good baseball. And sometimes you got to you got to give credit where credits do i do think a j hench has done a really good job with them so

there's that probably the only time i'm going to give him credit you know that and then as far as the met's you guys know i questioned the rotation coming out could they do it again and so far they've been able to pita lonsos looked really really good there i think that was the biggest look you get won soda in there great but getting peat back totally changed that lineup uh so i was um wrong with the pitching back in the bullpen's been fine and the offense is gone. Peter Lons has been a freaking awesome, not addition, but a re-signed for them. So those are my two, well documented, although the Mets have kind of been a little bit of a spy.

Not going to say anything. Listen to that. And Treve, people are probably laughing and if you put it together, maybe you already commented, not a math pod. A lot of these teams are closer to 50 games. So I did a whole quarter pole speech. A few teams have flown. What's 50 out of 162?

I mean, it's in between a fourth and a third. And I clearly am not the person to talk about it. You know what? I'm going to do a little math. Not on the calculator. Do a little math for us, Coach, Trev. And, you know, some teams have played more games, less games, whatever. I guess for myself, and I like what you said there,

I don't know. I'm not ready to apologize to your 20. wins yet. I guess the Braves, I need another check-in in a few weeks. I feel like I've been, the two teams I went in on before the season. I've done this the past couple years, and it honestly failed me each year. Like the day before first pitch, because we actually do our prediction episode. Like, we do these over-unders, but we talk about the divisions.

But then there's kind of that moment of like, oh, shoot, we're about to do our, our episode, who do I think is going to win the division? And the Red Sox hype train was kind of rolling. The Yankees lost coal and heel before the season that I was floundering a little bit. And I was like, wait, the Orioles are just sitting here. And they're just going to do Orioles things, right? So the Orioles are clearly my biggest miss. You can collect the payday on your Orioles under 87.5 right now.

I went with a panic over on them. The other team I paired with them was the Atlanta Braves, who they're sitting at 500. I've been butternifing their stats a lot because they started off 0 and 7, and then I think it got to 5 and 13. And hey, Strider just came back. Ronald O'Cunia's supposed to come back. So I guess I'm not ready to fully apologize yet. It feels like it's going to be tough for them to hit the 93 and a half over. That was one of the biggest over.

Was that the second biggest over under before the 6? season. Rob double-checked me, but I believe it was. It was. It was. It was the Dodgers and then the Brave. So again, there's some preseason expectation stuff there, but they're currently still on Pace for 81, which if you have another funk as a baseball team, which you're gonna, depending when that funk comes, you could be riding under 500 for a little bit again. So I still believe in the brave. But think about everything we just talked about. What if the Cardinals stay alive in this thing? What if, you know, the NL West is stacked. The Mets look really good that for the Atlanta Braves,

they are going to need one of these Minnesota Twins, St. Louis Cardinals, heaters, you know, winning 12 games or 12 out of 13 or something along those lines. If they want to get back on track for this over, under, I mean, they have to play incredible baseball the rest of it. They'd have to go 70 and 44. Possible, but you've got to. to play amazing baseball, and they haven't done that.

Like for the credit I've been giving the Braves, they haven't done that. And with how good the first place Phillies have been, hello. Yeah, I guess I've been still driving the Braves train a little bit, and I might need to slow down. I got a question for Braves fans. This core that you have, I'd still consider it like 2021. a lot of the same players are there. The rotation is almost completely different, but you win the World Series there.

Okay? 2022, you win 101 games, then losing the DS to the Phillies. 2023, you win 104 games losing the Divin Series 2, the Phillies. Last year, losing the Wildcard series, 89 wins sneak in wild card series, lose to the Padres.

Are you happy with what this core has done? You've got a World Series. And then you've got some early exits in the playoffs. And let's say they don't make the playoffs this year. Like, are you still, are you still holding on to 2021 and feel like this has been a success? They've had success in the regular season. It hasn't really happened since then in the postseason. Like, where do you stand with that?

It's interesting. I'll let the Braves fans chime in. I mean, my educated guess would be, we're good. but let comma. Last year they got a hall pass because no strider, no, Cooney. Which, I mean, that's two guys who are kind of. No strata, no Coonia in 2021.

Two guys are cheat codes. I know. So I think this year is a big year for the pulse of Braves Nation because they won that World Series and we're going to be rock stars every year. The amazing lineup Braves that got taken out by the Phillies, that this year's a big one for them. And again, currently it's an 81 win pace.

that they've been playing better, and they're going to get guys back, but they need to really go, and they haven't shown that yet, that, hey, maybe it's going to be a delicious summer in Atlanta, but if it's not, if they run into a hiccups, or like you said, with a couple poorly time-blown saves and what that can do for a win streak

or just the feel in the clubhouse, a little bit of dangerous time for Atlanta. I apologize. World Series champion Spencer Strider pitched two in a third inning. In 2021, he gave up a homer, two hits, did not pitch in the postseason, but he's got a ring?

Got that ring, baby. How come they don't put him as World Series champion? Because he wasn't on the roster? Probably, that's how baseball reference, I would assume, does it. Yeah, we can... He's got to have a ring. If he pitched those innings, that's usually how it works. So, yeah.

Interesting, interesting. Maybe he declined it. be a Spencer Strider move. I want that ring. My feet are too big. I can't have that ring. Yeah, that doesn't fit on my big toe. Okay, toe stuff coming in late.

Hey, if we nibbled around or passed your team, again, tough to do every team every up. Currently, Treves Lone Wolves, Atlanta, Baltimore, and Minnesota, my lone wolves, Colorado, Detroit, Miami, the Mets, San Diego, Tampa, and Washington. We still got a lot of ball to check in on. We will hit you at the, maybe with more updates on this at the three, the two-thirds. I don't know. We're 30% done with the season right now. Okay.

Yeah. That makes sense to me. That makes sense. That's between 25 and 33. Yeah. You're my Stanford, baby. Spencer Shrider's not listed on baseball reference because he was not a part of the postseason roster. Okay.

I'd still call him World Series champion, dude. That's probably got the ring. It's just like deep in the closet or in the underwear drawer. I always wonder that. Like if you're him, you got the ring. Do you call yourself World Series champion? I think he does. I think it's a very, I'm going to get another.

And then I'll talk about it differently. If he gets another, he'll call himself a two time. Interesting. I gotta reach out to a couple guys that have that similar story where they were on the roster during the year but didn't play in the postseason. Do they consider themselves World Series James? I think they do.

Part of the grind, right? Yeah. You know I would. I know you would. 162 game season, it's tough to get through. All right, let's jump to we've got some kind of going forward stuff with some draftings odds that have changed. And we want to check in on our individual player stuff.

And it's all brought to you by Direct TV. We love DirecTV. Because they're a baseball company. So are we, baby. And they are giving you the best access to America's favorite pastime. Bottom of the 9th, your team star steps up and you know who steps up? Direct TV. MLB's most, the most coverage.

You can watch those thrilling moments. and you don't need the satellite dish anymore, people. Take the roof off. It's 2025. Baseball isn't just a sport. It's a passion. And DirecTV is your home for baseball, delivering the crack of the bat,

the roar of the crowd right into your living room. So if you're ready to transform your baseball watching experience, head to directtv.com slash Johnboy or scan the QR code on the screen to learn more. Trev, we had a Dalton and Rob, came together and they put together some of the current drafting stuff that, hey, maybe this can point you in a direction

if you're looking to get a little more action going before I bet the cycle later. And I always think it's just interesting to see what bets stand out. Let's do a little AL for a second and then we'll do some NL. Your favorite to win the American League is The New York Yankees.

Yankees are at plus 310. Now the Yankees money can get skewed sometimes because they're the Yankees that I think the money can move that line because the Tigers are at plus 390 right now. Do you agree, if you were running Trevor Plouf's sports book, would you have the Yankees as the AL favorite? The takeaway I have from looking at these teams right now with these odds is I have no idea who's going to win the American League. Like there is not And then I'm thinking like Who's gonna beat the National League?

Yeah That's what I continue to think Because right now the top three teams Are the Yankees, the Tigers and the Mariners I think of those three teams I'd lean tigers But that's only if like These guys who were crushing the ball

Early in the season continue to crush the ball Like hey Tigers fans I love you man But like It's 162 Do I think you're gonna win the AL Central? Yeah I do I do But like the guys that have stepped up,

they don't have the best track records. I'm hoping that they continue to do it. And maybe they go making a trade acquisition. But each of these, these teams are flawed. They really are. Yankees, tigers, and mariners,

and Tigers fans are going to hate me because, you know, I've just been wrong about them. Trevi twins. And maybe I'll be wrong about them again. I guess most complete team of those three. Yankees, Tigers, Mariners.

Are the freaking Mariners the most complete team? That's crazy. I think the Yankees. I think we have a little bit of Yankeitis, if we're being honest. They won it last year. They have the best offense this year, then in the Dodgers. Judge is hitting. What Judge is doing, I had his stats up.

I can't even freaking believe what this guy is doing. Can I tell you? Do you read the numbers real quick? Please, I'd love that. He has a three-nine war. already. We're 30% done. So times that, times three. We're looking at a 12 war season.

That'd be good. He's hitting 403, batting every. 403. His on base percentage is 491. I'm a math guy. That's almost half the time. Every other bet he's getting to first base. Yes. 762 slug for a 1.2. His OPS plus is a 252.

It's pretty insane. and if there's one guy, like usually I'd be like, hey, man, there's no way this guy's going to keep it up. Aaron Judge, I'm like, this guy might keep it up. One of the most alarming numbers on this page was ALMVP, judge versus the field, judges minus 2,500. So I think if you're a sicko better, you'd go with the field there.

But I can't even think about that. And there's no need for me to think about that. Here's what I would tell you, Trev. And I'm not necessarily an expert. but not an expert. I can actually stamp that. Way to plug our show. The American League, and we're going to talk about the NL in a second.

Yankees, Tigers, Mariners, where their lines are, think eight teams make the playoffs? Or no, six teams to make it. Six teams. Yankees look pretty good to make the playoffs. Tigers look pretty good to make the playoffs. If you're looking for to win the AL juice, because I think when these teams get to the dance,

think it's going to be wide open. I think if you like Houston, if you like Texas, if you like the twins, if you still like the Red Sox. Red Sox are plus 1,300. And what if they start saving games? They'd be one of the best teams in the American League. The Royals at plus 1,400, the Guardians at plus 18. Like, if the guardians make the dance, I realize they're not super sexy. But with these numbers, I can't promise you. Like, the way the Royals can pitch, I don't know if I like them any less than any of these other American

League teams in the dance that I think if you're looking again in the action, I think it would start there for myself. If you take away all of my knowledge, men in black me, boom, gone, don't remember anything but this season. I think I picked the Mariners. Okay. Okay.

Andres Munoz hasn't given up a fucking run, Jake. Senor smoke. He has not given up a run. Okay? We know about their starting pitching. The offense is like kind of clicked. Oh, Edgar Martinez is there. We're changing philosophies.

It's been working. Julio Rodriguez, I think we, we, we act like he is not a good player. Because he gets off to a slow start and like, the numbers have trended down over his career. But like he's still like a four-war player. every year. I thought a guy with a high floor.

It's Julio Rodriguez. Well, and what he's done with this start, he's got a 111 OPS plus. Again, he normally starts deep in it that this could be a fantastic sign. So, again, like, I think that's where I would go. Now, I do admit that sometimes I try to go a little bit anti-Yanky to balance out the show.

Right. But I feel like some of the guys that are going for them, like I have question marks just like anybody else. They're young guys. Like, is Ben Rice, him? I don't know if he's him, but he's someone. Right? You know?

So, like, it's 162. Like, is this the big leagues? Like, is there going to be some regression coming from him? I don't know, man. I guess all that to say, the American League is wide open. The American League is wide open. I think the other thing, there's some side young numbers here. I don't know.

You do with that what you want people. The ale rookie of the year, Jacob Wilson became the big time favorite, and he just got banged up the other day. Kyle Hendricks got him. We kind of opened the shit. The Terminator, bro. Yeah. I guess if you have a young pup you like in the AL,

like I don't know, Jackson Job plus 3,000. If you're looking to make the sprinkle and make, try to get the big one, the AL rookie of the year, I think it's wide open. Dominguez and Christian Campbell are there. If you're a Yankees Red Sox person, but like, I don't know, Chandler Simpson for the raise, what if he just keeps running wild?

He still has crazy odds that there's something to be done. Jake Wilson, I just looked. No concern at all. X-rays are queen. Let's go. That's awesome. Let's go. Trev, in the National League,

the money is wild because to win the NL, it's the Dodgers plus 165, because they are them, that I would tell you, I go in on any team. It's then the Mets, the Phillies, the Braves are still high up there, the Cubbies, D-backs,

plus 13, Padres, plus 14. Like there is the Giants plus night. Cardinals plus 4,000? I don't know. I'm not saying I believe in that. But there is, if you're someone who thinks the Dodgers are not going to get through the NL, there's some serious value there.

I think if I'm looking at these teams, Mets plus 500, Phillies plus 550, those are the two teams I would look at and possibly the Cubs at 900 because I think they're going to be desperate at the trade deadline. Those are the teams that are going to make moves. and figure some things out.

Now, the Phillies obviously just had a huge blow with Jose Alvarado. And I mentioned Ranger Swarrest stepping in. A lot of people said, hey, it's a walkier and Boris is his agent. So he probably doesn't want him in the bullpen for the season. Now, the postseason is different.

I think he would kind of do whatever they asked in the postseason. But I do think those three teams are going to be very aggressive at the trade deadline. So I would look to those teams. But it's the Dodgers, isn't it? But they've been getting beat.

I don't like, injury riddled and. It hasn't been pretty. It really hasn't been pretty. That division's very good. They've had to come from behind a ton. They've scored a ton of runs late. And the bullpen has faltered a little bit here.

It's fun to do this, man. I know. 30% done with the season. You think the Dodgers are the best. But again, I think these other teams are really aggressive at the deadline. And I don't know if the Dodgers are. I think they feel like they're kind of set.

Right. I think they might just be doing that injury, get guys back. They can do some things, but if the Dodgers need an upgrade, it kind of has to be a massive move, and there's not a lot of massive moves to be made this trade deadline that you're probably right. They've made all their moves. They've made them. Yes, they've done their transactions. Dodgers have 17 late game wins defined as a comeback after trailing at any point.

Wow. Yeah, they, they, the game's never over with that offense. If you can turn it over to, you know, Muki, Shohey, Shohey, and Freddie. And before that, Paheis was like at the bottom of the lineup. So he was crushing it, getting on base for those guys. Now he's kind of moved up into more of the middle of the lineup.

But it's still a dog. And Trev, I mentioned this with the Cardinals before that they had one player on the IL. Dodgers have 14. All pitchers. 14 pitchers. They have an extra staff on the IL. Yeah, they do.

That is, that is wild. I mean, they sign guys that have injury history, is they know this is happening. Right. Plan for it. Wow. Let's see what the rest of their story has. Again, I guess the only thing that jumps out to me,

if you have a rookie of the year lean, It's wide open in the NL. Right now, Smith Schaver and Drake Baldwin, the two Braves lead the way after that. Gustin Ramirez, Dylan Cruz, but Chandler with some sauce there. And then, yeah, if you're not a Skeen's guy, I think one of the horses is going to get the NL Cy Young this year.

I think it's a Wheeler or a web year. I just think... We've seen what Yamamoto's doing? I know, and he did it again last night, and he was on hit of him. Again, I guess... against your snakes, but more importantly,

Dalton snakes, did you see what Dalton had for dinner last night? I'm sorry I had to bring it up, Dahl. This is, it's worse than what I feed my kids. Yeah. My seven and nine-year-old. He had dino nuggets,

a dry bowl of cereal, and a Mountain Dew. It's, you know, what are we doing here, Coach? I love Mountain Dew here. I, no, that's, I mean,

that's dangerously close. to... It's like, the bridge between that food is closer to child and animal than child and adult. Like that's... It's concerning. It's concerning. There's no milk in his cereal

because why would you put any in there? Yeah, I kind of... I was on a dry cereal thing for a little bit. But like, I don't even see any sauce for the Nuggies. There's like a little bit of sauce. Like he just wanted to test it out, didn't like it. So he's just going dry and just, it's just Mountain Dew. It looks like, yeah. Did he drop hot sauce on there? I don't know. I don't know. I'd rather not think about that.

Trev, let's close it out with Draft Kings and looking at our, we'll do our individual bets real quick. Bobbo, if you could get those on the screen. You know, before the season, we do our locks. We do the, you know, the little bit of a sprinkle with our prop-ed episode. It's become one of our favorite episodes of the season, so we figure we might as well check in on this. Do you want to run through yours quick? Yes, I will. And I've hit on, right now I'm trending on two of them.

So I went and did Pete Alonzo to lead, or to have, excuse me, over 100 runs driven in. Because I'm like, hey, look, dude, like he's hitting behind a guy that gets on base at at least at a 400 clip. And that's been great for me. He's absolutely crushing the ball and having a career year. I think he gets that, no doubt, if he stays healthy. So that one's looking good for me. Brent Rooker under 260 batting average.

I hate, we had to have like an under and it was really tough this year. So a lot of them were like under batting averages. I just saw Brent Roker. Hopefully he didn't see this graphic. He's like F off, bro. But he's hitting 241 right now. Hey, hit a bunch of homers and hit 255. Okay.

That's a great season. But I'm good on that one right now. My lock, though, seems to be in peril, Jake. I had the Red Sox to make the playoffs was my lock. Minus 105 right now. Currently not in the playoffs. currently playing very subpar ball. I sprinkle Justin Martinez, NL reliever of the year at plus 1,300.

Like the stuff I saw from him, I thought he was going to get a chance. He was going to get a chance to finish games for the dimebacks who are a good baseball team. Unfortunately, he got hurt, and they are struggling with their bullpen right now. Yeah, I think, man, the next steps for the Red Sox are going to be wildly interesting. I would, if I genuinely had to pick, I think it's going to happen for them. I think there's going to be a fun summer in Fenway, but they got to get off this rocky road a little bit. Speaking of, for my over, I went Alex Bregman plus a little juice for a 260 batting average or higher. He is currently in the threes.

He has been, you know, one of the best offensive players this season. And I was just going with the, currently hitting 304. I was going with the history of, you know, right-handed hitters at Fenway putting it together. Alex Bregman of three-war season right now, Trev. Yo. I mean, he's got that opt-out. Where would the Tigers be? I know.

With him. It's wild to think about, right? Mariners fans. And this is funny because it's slightly contradictory to my over-under pick, because I did pick the over on the Mariners fans. They were about 86 and a half, I believe. I had the Mariners to have less wins than the brewers. I was going with Old Faithful and the Brewers finding their way to 89, 90 wins.

I was having the Mariners, 87, 88. It's looking bad. It's looking bad. And I'm, again, Mariners fans have a weird relationship with myself. Go check out the most recent Wake and Jake comments because they, I want to love them. They want me to love them and they just don't understand. and I kind of don't understand it.

My lock, which you called me out on Trev, was Cody Bellinger to hit over 260. Cody is currently hitting 258 on the nose. He did get off to a slow start, if I was going to put, if I was going to defend myself. In his last handful, in his last 13 games, Cody's hitting 377. so I'm hoping we're trending upwards, but for a lock, a little scared.

And then I sprinkled on Mason Miller to lead MLB in saves. He's in the mix right now. It's not looking good, but that was a plus 14. John Boy went a little slightly rogue on us as he always does. Brandon Lau, which was a good money to hit 30 plus home runs, plus 275. He currently has seven, so he's not out, but that one has a third of the way down. right puts the 21 we'll give him four more 25 hey but his offensive numbers are down outside of the homers so if he comes back to playing like brandon low he could be in the mix there on the other side in the

under he took a lot less juice minus 280 less than three teams will win a hundred games that's looking pretty good um less than a hundred tigers maybe dodgers maybe it no one's a lot to win a hundred So that's looking good. At least have the best record of the National League right now. Yeah, like they could, can they keep it going? But we haven't gone into divisional stuff. His lock was Class A to save 35 games. Remember, he got taken out of the closer spot for like a week there.

He got his job back pretty quickly. But nine saves on the season. So if you're doing the 30%, nine times three, That one could be closer than any of us would have thought. So let's see how that plays out. And then his sprinkle was Lendor to lead in runs. He was playing the Soto-Alanso game. If you're bored at work today, bring up the runs leaders.

Look how far ahead Shohay is of everyone. And it's just a reminder of how much of a sick pup that fella is. Because scoring runs, not to wind horse you, scoring runs matters. It does. A little bit of manniletics at the end. All right, the draft king. bet the cycle. We're doing it every Wednesday to feed you guys a little bit of the action from the Draft King's sports book. And we get harder as we go. We've been killing the doubles,

back-to-back week getting the doubles. Last week we got our double and our triple. So, you know, there's a... The Dodgers screwed up last week. Yeah, the Kershaw returned. But those halos, Swilly's halos are killing it. Two for four last week, which I think would have put people in a good spot this week. I will start off with us, Trev. And man, okay, the Halos that they earned our respect. So I'm going with the Halos to beat the A's on Thursday. Seve at home, which we've talked about that Sacramento ballpark a lot. Sevy's been getting knocked around at the ballpark. The A's are 8 and 15 at home, tied for the second worst record. And the Angels are playing a little ball. So Angels to win straight up on Thursday.

For the double, I got B loud to have one or more total bases and one or more runs driven in on Saturday versus the Blue Jays. He likes to hit against the Blue Jays. 18 homers, 47 career runs driven in, both the second most versus any opponent for him. And he also likes to hit against Chris Bassett. 7 for 14 career, three doubles and a homer Jays. Brev, listen to some of these numbers, because there's some people that they're not in the betting game,

I mean, that's fine. They're here for ball. Here's some ball tidbits. Our triple is the Pirates to win and score five plus runs on Friday. And it's a Skeen's Day, and you're like, okay, yeah, pirates could win that and scoring five in baseball. The Pirates have gone 25 consecutive games scoring four or fewer runs. That is sinful, man. Ten runs in Paul Skeen's last six starts.

they're giving them less than two runs. We're bucking the trend. Let's get into Memorial Day weekend. Pirates win and they score five. This one I like for a home run doesn't seem like it's too far. It's not outlandish. Yankees to score seven or more runs in all three games they play in Colorado this weekend. Colorado, the team that's on pace for 27 wins total in the season.

The Yankees are absolutely crushing the ball. They lead all of Major League Baseball, 81 homers, and their third in runs, Jake. It's worth 271 runs already. I like that one a lot. That's like me showing up to the field. June 2012. I'm going to hit a homer.

Wow. 13 years ago. That's where we always end the program. Thank you guys. We will see you Friday leading into Memorial Day weekend, which means like summer's on. Wow.

let's do it suck Jake I gotta get like my fitness down I'm like I'm okay right now Jake but you're right summer's here shirt's gonna be off at the barbecue gotta make all the wives jealous you know what I'm saying

yeah it's almost you get a little tidy up in you enjoy summer a little bit and then maybe you put July 4th as like the next like let's get it dialed Thank you.