Talkin' Baseball (MLB Podcast) - San Diego Padres | Profile & Projection | 635

Episode Date: March 21, 2023

The Padres took down the Dodgers last year in the playoffs and made it to the NLCS. After some more big name acquisitions and extending Manny Machado this offseason, can they get back there in 2023? What will the role for Fernando Tatis Jr. be? Jomboy, Talkin' Jake, and Trevor Plouffe break it all downUse code JOMBOYPRESEASON for 15% off your next purchase at SeatGeek* https://seatgeek.onelink.me/RrnK/JOMBOYPRESEASON*max discount $50, expires 3/31/2023 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

What about the Madres? What about the night? Makes you move. Leave. Hey! What's going on, everybody? It's another team profile and projection here on. Talking baseball.

And today we are doing your 20-23 San Diego Padre. They signed a lot of people. There's a lot of people they tried to sign they didn't get. Handed away money. Jake thinks that maybe they don't have it. How are you, Jake? James, Trevor, your San Diego Padres. 1% chance.

It's like a crazy documentary in a couple of years. You did for this, Mr. Padres? That's what you're saying. 89 and 73 last year lost in the NLCS to BBD's Phillies. My goodness. God damn, their record never reflects their brain. West Coast Fills. And Dodgers win 112 games every year.

So they added, Trev. They said, hey, we're good. We got to the CS. Let's build upon it. The X-Man, Zander Bogatz, 11 years, $280 million to leave the Commonwealth. Michael Waka at the buzzer. How about that? Four-year-26, interesting contract there.

Seth Lugo, don't you come out of that Mets pen and start and throw some curve balls. Why not? Why not? Matt Carpenter, you were a freak show last year. Here's two years. Nelson Cruz, I forgot about this one. He's the GM of the Dominican Republic. I've never had that job title. Adam Angles floating around, will your guy, Honeywell, get a look? And then they did something kind of fun. A bunch of veteran invites. Cole Hamel's agent, our number one guy in program history, Julio Tehran. How about Jose Lopez, a rule five? guy. Why don't you make the team, kid?

There's a lot of action on the front. Who they lost, Brandon Drury and Josh Bell, a couple trade deadline ads. Sean, admire my desire, Mania. He's out after a tough year. Will Myers out after party and Clevenger gone. Pierce Johnson gone. Alfaro, Mazara, the prince who was promised there for a little bit. Awesome, Adams. And Jerks and ProFar remains unsigned. So a lot of moving parts. Some in better than the sum. out IMO.

Trev, it starts at the top of this lineup, boogity, boogity, boogity. You already mentioned X-Men Zander. Bogarts, he'll be at shortstop for them. Right field will go to, oh, just a freaking surefire Hall of Famer one. Soto, Mani Machado, surefire Hall of Famer. He'll be at third base.

Jake Croninworth, not so sure about the Hall of Fame for him yet. Hey, hey. Yet, he's going to be playing some first base? Why not? Is that true? Yeah. Okay.

Nelson Cruz, they sign him for a million bucks. Come hit some homish for us, Big Daddy. He'll be D-Hing. I'm sure they'll be splitting some time there. Matt Carpenter, possibly in left field. That would be interesting. There's no way that really ends up happening, right? This is all off of fan graphs, people, these positions.

Hassan Kim, he'll be in there, probably at second base or shortstop. Sometimes, maybe. Then we also, Trent Grisham and Austin Nola, rounding it out. Forgot about our guy Fernando Tatis Jr., who be back on 420, Jake's favorite holiday. On the bench, you got a couple guys you probably know, Jose Azokar, Luis Campesano, Adam Engel. Big fan of our show, I heard. Yeah. Yeah, no, I didn't hear that.

No, I didn't hear that. Oh. But possibly. And then Rookie. Possibly. You didn't mention they brought him in. Why didn't you mention that, Jake? Ned O'Dor.

Could possibly be on the bench. So look, they have a lot of stuff going on in that lineup. Fernando Tati's Jr. is going to be back in April. It's incredible. James, tell us about the rotation. Tell us about the bullpen. Because I think there are some question marks there. Do you really think so?

Wow. I do. You Darvish. He's pitching in the World Baseball Classic. Got extended. Sure. Got extended. His third six-year deal.

Blake Snell, Jake's picked to win the Cy Young above any other pitcher. Michael Waka. He's there. Nick Martinez is there. Seth Luka. Jake mentioned him. Brent Honeywell Jr. Hey.

Hey. We like him. Ryan Weathers is there. Cole Hamels. He's going to make the team. And Musgrove is doubtful for opening day. But they're also like, he's good, though.

I think the most recent update was his bullpen sessions are kind of crazy good. So that's insane. How are you throwing a fucking bullpen? Your toe's broken. Because like I said, just cut the thing off and get on with it. That's what I, they probably did that. Melvin said, again, it's miraculous. I don't know what's next for him.

But it looks like we're on a pretty good path after being impressed by his bullpen session. So proving you don't need a healthy big toe to look impressive in a bullpen session. Musgrove is doing it all. Interesting. The bullpen, you got a hater. remember that? Remember that, Jake? Yeah.

You got Robert Swares. He's a big fun story. Luis Garcia, one of the three Luis Garcia's in MLB right now. Have we had a picture with all three of them together? Yet. Do they know each other and hang out? Yes.

Probably. Wow, I like that we have long reliever on the sheet. Jose Lopez, the long reliever. Drew Pomerantz. Haven't heard that in a while. He needs to get off the Padres because he can't really do the uniform's justice. Hmm. Tim Hill, he's fun.

I can see that. Oh, and Khrzmat. He was playing in the World Baseball Classic, and no one knew who he was in our warehouse. And I said he's on the Padres. And it was our social media team. It's just like in your face. I know so much more than you.

That's nice. He's got such an intense look to him, too. Yeah. Yeah. Oh, he looks like a pirate. He looks good in the uni. Kind of bad guy in a movie vibes. I got a bad guy in a pirate movie.

Yeah. Like he, like, that's how you explain this. whole team, bad guy in the movie. He's the right-hand man to the captain of the pirate ship that does the dirty work, Chris Matt. Yeah. Like, captain kind of like, they walk the deck together and he kind of scoffs at a guy. And Chris Matt knows, okay, I'll stab him, throw him overboard tonight. The captain of the pirate boat, who's not a good guy, but he's like walking with the character.

And he, he, like, mentions at the end of their walk and he's like, and most importantly, you'll do this for us. because we've kidnapped your wife and Chris Matt's holding the wife like over for him. That's a little, you got a little crazy. Treve, I described this team and it's a little bit of a lame thing. She's your wife.

It's a little bit of a lame cop-outy equation, but we've been saying it with our Yanks on talking Yanks a lot that the Yankees puzzle piece hasn't felt complete. This team's puzzle feels complete,

but it also feels like there's some duplicate pieces that it's just like, how are they going to use them during the year? Like, Croninworth, you mentioned him. Like, that dude can play anywhere at any time that, like, he's the first baseman, okay? You mentioned Hassan Kim. Like, that dude's a nasty shortstop. He's better than Bogots.

You know, that was kind of the early joke when they signed Bogarts was that, you know, they might have other shortstuffs better than Bogart. Have you seen Bogart's number? So Bogarts made a big change in, like, his creep step or something that he says, like after the All-Star break, after 20, 21, he made this change on his ability to come in on balls or something like that. And if you look at his defensive numbers since that time,

they really did. He started becoming positive defensively. If you look closer at his defensive numbers, all his positive plays come from when he was on the right side of second base in the shift. But it counts as the shortstop because the second base was there. If you look at all of the, defense plays when he's on the left side of second base, he's still a negative.

According to the metric shortstop, Kim is really, was really good at shortstop. So then they have Tatis, who, what's he going to do? I mean, because Grisham's a two-time gold Glover and center field. He's going to go to left field. And Grishman is like, it's weird. They might wake up and be like, we got to rethink our positions halfway through the season. they got a lot of players. I don't know about the duplicate puzzle piece,

puzzle sort of complete analogy yet. I'm still, that is over my head a little bit, maybe Jake, but maybe by the end of the episode, I'll get it. Yeah, Tatis changes everything when he comes back. Like,

you have to have had a place to put him in, okay? And you just mention all these guys that are defensively driven. That's the decision they're going to have to make. Like, do we need bangers in the lineup, which is yes,

they're going to play Zander Bogartz over Jake Croninworth. Like, they're going to play him over Hassan Kim. Like he's going to play because I just gave him $300 fucking million, dude. And then we thought, oh, well, Zander's there because they might not have Machado. He's going to opt out. Well, no, they already resigned him. So, like, they're going to have this problem, not just this year, but for the years to come.

So is it trade central? I know the solution. Jimmy's got it. Okay. The Padres don't believe that Nelson Cruz and Matt Carpenter will both work out. And when Tatis comes back, one of Cruiser or Carpenter is the DH, and that opens up the outfield spot for Tatis.

Platoon them. Lefty righty. Easy enough. Figured it out. Speaking of platoon, Jake and lefty righty, the Padres have great balance. Oh, okay. Great balance. Nice.

They got Bargarts, righty, Soto, lefty, Machado, Ritey, Cronenworth, lefty, Cruz, righty, Carpenter lefty, Kim righty, Grisham lefty, Nola, righty. That's nice. Yeah. Yeah, I just kind of spinning with this lineup right now. It's spinning.

When Tatis comes back, you're right. Like, you don't move Grisham out of center field. I think that's very important that you have them out there. So now you have to put Tatis in left field, most likely. Soto goes the right? Keep Soto and right. It hasn't even playing right. So keep them there.

Maybe switch that. I don't know. I think you value a better arm in right field. So maybe you move so to the left. Maybe Cruz becomes assistant GM slash DH because he's doing such a good job with the DR team. Bommel came out and said that Soto's going to play left. And I think that makes sense because he's played there previously. And Tatis, if he figures it out and right with the strong arm and everything.

And he has a chance to be a plus guy out there. But yeah, and, you know, with managers, they've always been something we've struggled with a little bit on this show. But we love and respect Bob Melvin. I think he was the voice that clubhouse was kind of missing before they went on their run last year. And like I was alluding to, like I love the pieces of this, and it's going to take a little wiggle in and squirming to figure out.

Because, yeah, man, I don't know. I know watching Yankees' Red Sox games in the past if there was a difficult ball hit to Bogart. It's like, you know, sometimes when, if you see a tricky ball hit towards a Machado, you're like, God damn it. Like, he's about to make a nice play, and that stinks, because if that was a chunk of other third baseman,

I think they make that play. Bogarts, I had kind of a different feeling. And, hey, maybe he puts in, he's putting in the work, and he's made some of the changes that some of the analytics lagging more. He's age 30 now, which, you know, that's a big pivot point for a lot of ball players, especially short stops. And like we said, I mean, what Kim can do defensively. He's a highlight reel.

So it's going to be interesting. to see if they juggle any of that during the season. Remember they had the weird kind of Bogart's press conference where they asked his position and that got kind of funky. So you just hope the team embraces it. And they go, if this team puts their heart into winning as many baseball games as they can and doing what's best for the team and being flexible because there's going to be injuries in different things.

Like I doubt I doubt Cronenworth plays 150 at first base. Like that guy's specialty is being a good utility. weapon for them. If this team embraces winning in the baseball season and Tatis comes back, it's going to be hard to get through Bogart Soto-Machado Tatis clean four times a game. And that's without, we haven't even really gotten into their rotation that when they're healthy at the top, I mean, Darvish, Snell, Musgrove is a one, two, three I like with most teams. And then you see what clicks the rest of the way between Waka, who was good last year.

Nick Martinez tore on it for Team USA, I believe, or he might have had to pull out. No, I think he's in there. I don't know. I think you figure out that along the way. They address their bullpen with Hader and some of their moves this offseason. Remember, a couple of those guys were free agents. This is a good all-around team. They can do anything.

They can run. They can hit for power. They can hit for contact. And they can pitch, man. It's just kind of the big, bad wolf in their division. and are they going to embrace all of it? God, Tate's coming back. That's a little bit of a wild card, right?

Are they the big bad wolf in this division now? I mean, they beat the Dodgers. The last time these teams played for anything special, they went out and beat the Dodgers in the playoffs, and it was awesome. And they added, and the Dodgers didn't really add. I think you could say that the Padres definitely got better. I don't know if you can say that about the Dodgers over the offseason.

This team is, I think, depth, right? And that's the word to describe this team. Days of guys playing one position and stick in there, like that doesn't happen too much anymore. That's going to be the case with this team. Jake Cronoenward did not win the goal glove. He's a goal glove finalist last year. I'm sorry about that.

So yeah, he'll be mixing it up everywhere. Guys are going to play different positions. It wouldn't surprise me if we saw like a day where Xander played third base. Like wouldn't surprise me if that happened. Machado needs a day. You move some guys over. I don't know, man. I think there's going to be a lot of mixing and matching.

But you're right. this team can swing it. The top end of the rotation I really like. I like the bullpen a lot too. So there's not an area where you're looking at this team being like, well, they're deficient in this aspect. They're going to give the Dodgers a run for their money in the division. We know famously the Dodgers know how to win in the regular season. But looking at the lineup now, it's kind of hard for me to expect anything but a division title for these guys.

Whoa. Whoa. Yes. Whoa. Right? You hate the Dodgers? I don't hate the Dodgers and I bet you when I look at their roster when we go on their TP, I'm like, I can't expect anything but a division title for these guys.

But this is an insane roster. It's insane. It is insane. And the fact that Soto is like kind of overlooked, it's wild. If he was, if Soto was on another team, he'd be like clearly the most talked about. and like all the pressure for him to carry that team and like get him going and I don't know he's not that here and he had a rough second half when he got traded over I don't think that's going to continue he's pretty good no so is he going to be able to do the shuffle with the pitch

clock spring training games podgers fans do you have enough time a little abbreviated shuffle you mean chuff I think so I think I remember one of the first spring games that there's some quote from him saying like, yeah, I'll figure it out. Ryan Cohen, are you going to let me know? Machado, and I said he's going to be the first hitter that openly takes a strike against a pitcher he doesn't care about. Well, he said that himself. We said that.

No, he said it. He did it first game, and then after it happened, he said, expect a lot of 0-1 counts out of me. We said that, me and Manny. Yeah, I'm wondering for the second half of the line. up what's going to click. You know, Matt Carpenter had one of the most impressive batches of baseball we saw last year. He had a higher OPS club.

I mean, he's not going to start, dude. He's not going to be in the back end of this lineup. I mean, and I guess maybe until Tatee gets there, like maybe a couple games. Well, dude, that guy's just a bench piece for them. And like, you're right, he had a great year last year. But that's not part of their lineup, right? I disagree, Trev. Like Jimmy mentioned, they've got options to click here.

Carpenter, they gave a contract. It's not like Nelson Cruz, they gave a one-year, $1 million contract. And we know who he is. He's one of the most respected Latin players all time. He's a GM of the DR team. We talked about San Diego wanting to bring him in for years because they were looking for voices in their locker room. That's who he is, along with Beaumel, Bob Melvin, who came in.

Matt Carpenter, two years, 12 million. Like, they brought him into play. And last year when he played, he had a 1.138 OPS. It's a hundred twenty-eight at bats. It's a small sample size after a couple years of kind of bottoming out. But he kind of put in that work. He went to every hitting coach and hitter he possibly could. He retooled it that I guess I'm trying to figure out.

Trent Grisham came into camp with a new stance. Matt Carpenter, how sustainable is it? who's going to be the guy in the second slash middle part of that lineup that makes the Padres like a death lineup? Because right now, when Tatis comes back, there's going to be four there. Cronworth's a guy. I mean, if he takes a step up, that'd be insane. But I wonder who's going to be the hot guy

or who's going to keep it going that makes it a full lineup instead of half a lineup. Pass that baton. Man, he gets it one month, Soto the next. Kim, he carries August when everyone else doesn't care about it. Why not? You know? Multiple heroes. Grisham had such a bad year offensively last year.

We know what we can do with the glove. Like, do you, if you're Bowmel and you have Carpenter who's hitting, you know, maybe not at a one dot pace, but say he's got an OPS in the 800s and Tatees comes back. Do you put Grisham to the bench and just plug him in center field? or, I mean, like, these are the questions and these are the situations he's going to find himself in. I'm very curious.

Like, hopefully Grisham just doesn't hit 184 with a 626 OPS. And then that's what they're banking on. But if he, say he does, and he's hitting around 200, what do you do? Spring training is in full tilt and with seat geek code

Johnboy preseason. You can get 15% off any order to anything you want. Wherever there's a seat, Just make sure you're using Seekykechomboi pre-season. Go get it. Because you're right. I mean, that's not a small contract that they gave to Carpenter.

I mean, I don't think they want, they're expecting them to get 600 plate appearances, but 300, 350, maybe? I think he plays. Yeah, I don't know. I don't know. I think it sorts itself out in a fine way. I just think if you're a Padres fan,

you don't want to be. like every other inning matters. Like, oh, the dudes are coming up this inning. Now we can pay attention. Oh, bottom of the lineup. Let's hope one guy gets a hit so we could get back to the top.

This seems so good, dude. That seems so good. I think the starting pitching is, if anything, you could have, like, fail them to the point of not having someone internally step up. Like, if the offense is bad,

that's a lot of pieces. going sour. It's almost like they all got a stomach bug. Like they're not going to go trade for more people on offense. I think they're going to say, guys, look around the room. One of you, this is it. Step up. Like, we can't add to this.

But, and I don't think the rotation is bad, but there's any area where, like, halfway through the season, they're like, we need to improve the team somewhere. Maybe that's the area that, like, we need to get another stud or top of the line starter. But they got guys there, too. So, yeah. We're nitpicking a little bit. You're trying to find an area of weakness. But then again, they've never like, have they won 90 games recently?

What did they win in 2021? They had tanked at the end, right? Yeah. So we're talking about them like they're awesome. 79 and 83. And the lineup is awesome. It gets stacked. But so can we, so what's, what is the over under on?

That's such a different team though. I'm looking at the roster. Sorry, James. 2021 is a completely different team. Hosmer, Victor Keratini, Tommy Fam, Will Myers. Like those guys were replaced by Xander Bogart's Juan Soto. The lineup's amazing. So what's a failure for this team?

Like, I don't know what Vegas has the over-under as, but what's a regular season bus? Like what can they do? Like we talked about the White Sox like this last year and they didn't make the playoffs. In your guy's mind, what's their floor? Like if their ceiling is clearly winning the division. We all think that's likely.

And what, if they don't win 90 games again, are we rubbing our eyes and being like, what the hell is? How did that happen? Yes, 93.5 is what Draft Kings has the overrun direct. Which is a big jump up. I bet last year they were probably around 88 if I had to assume or to guess. Sealing win the division, 96 to 100 games. That's sealing.

That's if the starting rotation is healthy and they, go off and the offense is what we expect it to be. Floor for them, a lot of things would have to go wrong, man. 88 to me is a floor. That seems like a reasonable floor. Yeah, I mean, there's a little bit of Phillies West out here. I think this team made the CS last year. They were doing a little bit like, oh, one more game and we brought it back to San Diego. That would have been us. You'd think that way if you're a fan of that team or you're on that team, you have to think that way.

If the Dodgers run away with the West, I don't think this team is, like, devastated. Like, I don't think they're hammering the table, like, they got us again. Like, no, like you said, Trev, they saw them in the playoffs and they beat them. So I think this team, especially with the amount of dudes on it, like, I think me and Jimmy just did the same thing

with their rotation and the lineup. Like, overall, you like it, if anything, they get a little thin towards the end. So what do we like come playoff time? We like the stars. If the Padres rotation, come the playoffs, turns into Darvish-Schnell Musgrove,

guess what? That's really good. And that can go with any other team. And the top of that lineup will go with any team. So I'm not too worried about regular season. And I think, like, I don't know, the Dodgers just win games in the regular season. You'd like to see the Padres put up a 95 win year.

and really stamped that, like, you know, we are one of the best teams in baseball. Instead of us coming down the stretch, like, you know, will these Padres turn it on? They're an 88 win team. Like, I don't want to do that. I want them to be one of the best teams. And almost that must-watch late-night team.

That's what they were. I would love if they were that again. They just need to sell a bunch of tickets and win a bunch of games so that the owners of teams that are from the East Coast that were orange can shut up about. acting like their failures. Oh, well, the Padres are spending all this money, but what's it got them?

Well, a lot of fans and money. So I'm rooting for the Padres. Obviously, everyone should be rooting for the Padres besides Dodgers fans, I guess, if you really hate him, but to do well, because all it's going to do is let your owner know, oh, a viable option is going out and using my money to improve the team. Being good. Yeah.

Hmm. Yeah. 2006. It's the last time they won the NL West. Jeez. It seems like a long time ago, 16 years. How many times have the Dodgers not won it in 16 years? Like a couple times, maybe.

Not a lot. Giants won it a couple years ago when they won 107 over 106. And that's probably it. What other team would have won it in that time period? Dodgers, I mean, I think. Rockies, did they ever have a, know they went to the World Series that one year. And that was 2007, right?

Maybe they won it that year. Dodgers finished third and fourth and 11 and 10. This is the Padres. Screw them. You over or under, dog? D-Backs won it in 11. Hell yeah. Yeah, the snakes.

Oh, shoot. You guys go first because I'm having trouble with this one because I didn't think it was going to be 93 and a half. As much as I love this team, that's the biggest number we've seen so far. I guess that makes sense as we're going up to line here. Yeah, take the over. They're going to be so good. I'm going to take the over.

Worry about Tati's coming back in the middle. Just because when he got suspended, it didn't feel like a clubhouse full of support. Yeah, but you know, he had a little humble pie. I think everything is going to be just fine. I think this is a team that's going to run off. I can have like a 19 and 6 month. Like they're going to have some really, really big months.

If they can avoid the collapse. If you think Tatee's had humble pie, I got some humble pie for you. All he does now is think that he's a victim. Is that sure? I haven't heard his quotes, but I would bet money on it. His dad sure did. He knows he fucked up.

And all those guys are telling him he fucked up. And Nelson Cruz is going to give him a master class and how to freaking handle that because everyone loves Nelson Cruz and has forgotten that he got popped. But he's going to point right in Nelson Cruz's face and say, you're old. No, he's going to say, don't tell me shit, you did it too. Old man.

We're going off the rails here a little bit. I'm taking the over. I think I am going to take them right now and declare them that I think they're going to win a division. Wow. Okay, I disagree. Until the Dodgers, TvP, then I can change my mind, okay? Okay, that's fair.

You'll always reserve the right to change your mind. I'm going to throw a sneaky under out there. I think 93 and a half is a little bit of a big boy number for a team that hasn't thrown that out there yet. And again, I think there's a chance the Dodgers role in this team. I think they land 91, 92. And that's a nice year for them, but it happens to be the under.

So to sum it up, Trave things are going to win the division. Jake thinks they're going to be trash. I'm right in the middle, slight over, 94 wins. I'm rooting for them to be really good. Yeah. I'm going to go 96 wins in a division title.

Dodgers don't care anymore about the regular season. Yeah, Dodgers are switching it up. They're like, let's do the Phillies stuff. They care so hard. I mean, they're going to be in first place until the Dodgers trade for Otani and then and then it's done. Then they Otani, they, uh, they, they, uh, they sabathia

him every three games. Otani's pitching. Otani's, I can't go any lower. Otani's already a cardinal. Yeah. That's a joke. Ooh, Jay Groom. Hey, what's that? His name again? Salas.

Salas. He's 16 years old. Jimmy hates him. No, I love him. I just think that like, like, that's Godgiven. What about E. Guy Rosario? He's not. He left. He's injured currently. He left. Quit.

Oh, wow, wow. Campasano. Go nuts. Victor Caratini. Not on the team anymore. Not there. No, not there.