Talkin' Baseball (MLB Podcast) - Texas Rangers | Profile & Projection | 619

Episode Date: March 5, 2023

Use code JOMBOYPRESEASON for 15% off your next purchase at SeatGeek* https://seatgeek.onelink.me/RrnK/JOMBOYPRESEASON*max discount $50, expires 3/31/2023The Rangers had perhaps the AL's most exciting offseason. Will Jacob deGrom and their new-look rotation help them move into postseason contention? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Hmm. Don't mess with them. Don't mess with them. Don't do it. Ho! Oh! My goodness. Your 17th best ranked team in baseball by you, the people.

The Texas Rangers. And you're saying, weren't they 68 and 94 last? year? They were. But didn't they also have one of the more memorable off-seasons and couple off-seasons paired together in recent baseball because they added Trev arguably the best in the game. Jacob de Grom. Five for one, 85.

The Hiendog. He got some of that Dodgers magic and he was gross last year. Nathan Evaldi, kind of the opposite, right? Had to pitch in Fenway. But man, big game, Nate. Even our guy, Odo's over there. They got some pitching, starting pitching depth. And then a bunch of minor league invite guys,

some names you'd recognize, who they lost. Arihara went back to Japan. Said to F this. I'm going home. Nick Sollack, former pedal winner. of town. Eli, Wyatt,

Dennis and Tim, you know, not a lot of move the needle names. Cole Calhoun who played a lot for him. Not great. Club option declined. So,

I mean, they've been, you know, the quote-unquote winner of the off-season. And Trev, when you win the off-season, what does your lineup look like?

What's going on, guys? Spring training is in full tilt. And with Seat Geek, code Johnboy pre-season. You can get 15 percent off any order to anything you want wherever there's a seat just make sure you're using seat geek john boy preseason go get it this lineup there are some guys that are going to be locks in here

and some of the guys that are going to be in and out of it here are some of the locks marcus simian heard of them corey seger that is a nice up-the-middle punch right there Nate low great early settlers name great bat adelaise garcia my guy for the most underrated team he'll be out there in the outfield, Jonah Haim, love him. And then this is where we get a little iffy here. You got Josh Jung at third base. My guy backyard Brad might be mixing in. Leota Tavaris, Josh Smith, but then we got the guys on the bench.

We got Ezekiel Duran. Mitch Garver's going to be there. D.H. catching Mark Matthias and then Bubba Thompson. He might be in the starting lineup a lot too. So a lot of mixing and matching there at the end of that lineup. But there's some big boys at the top. Top. And speaking of big boys, beavers, are you ready for that pitching staff? Oh, I'm ready. And you basically heard it all because it's mostly new guys.

Jacob de Grom, free agent signed. Martine Perez also was a free agent signing to the qualifying offer. John Gray's been there now for this is a second year. Nate of Aldi, Andrew Heaney, round out the projected five, but Odo's going to do some swing man stuff. Dane Dunning was a hot name a couple years ago. He's been there a little bit now. Glenn Otto. Howard former top prospect, depth people.

In the bullpen, they got Jose LeClerc, Jonathan Hernandez, Brock Burke, Odo figures to start the earback there. Our Guy Herne hunch, Joe Barlow, Josh Spores. Danny Duffy's there. What? All right. Pitching. Trev, I was going to ask you something I would make up on the fly,

but you raised your hand, so just do it. Two questions. Did you call Oderizzi a swinger? Is that what I heard? Oh, swing man He's gonna do some swinging. Okay, and then secondly, this is a little off subject here,

but I don't know, and I want to see if you guys know, language of origin for de Grom. Is it French? Day, I would assume, like, Dutch? Can we look that up? Days usually look, get me towards romance languages. What's a romance language?

Oh, Treve. The languages that descend from Latin, minored in Latin, by the way, so that's your Spanish, your French, your Portuguese. Olivia tried to tell me that Latin's not a real language. She said it's dead. I said, I don't know. Well, it's not a scientific language.

I'm not spoken anymore. Trying to find an early life section. These Texas Rangers, 68 to 94 last year, that is not good. They were five games back of the halos, the teams we just did. Only eight games ahead of the athletics, actively trying to live.

lose last year. I'm not sure if we mentioned the name Jack Leiter. Josh Young, there's some youth that should be helping this team, but it's basically what do you believe in? Do you believe in a new culture, a new rotation, a middle infield that can go toe to toe with everyone? And basically, it's where does the ship land? Because they're going to be better.

They're going to be better. but is that, you know, to get 10 games better and baseball is tough, and that would make them a 78 win team. You know, to be 20 games better than they were last year, that's 88 wins, which does that sneak in the playoffs? Probably. But that's a big ask. That being said, they have some guys that can do that.

I think we have to start rotation, Trev, because we already have and Martin Perez technically had the best season of any of those starters last year but with DeGrom, Grace, Gray being there, Avaldi, Heaney,

you can go on runs with that rotation. Yeah, I think that's what we'll see out of the Texas Rangers rotation is a couple times where they all sink up and things are looking really nice. Again, we need everyone to stay healthy because it's not a lot of depth there. So you're banking on these.

guys to stay healthy. You're banking on Jacob de Grom to be there all year. And when you have a guy like that who's your stopper, you know, that's when you start to pile up series wins. When you can bank on a W every time a guy throws basically, you got to just go win one more of those games in a series. And that's how you get on a roll. That's how you, that's how you enter that 81, 85, 88, tight win season when you have a guy like that just always if you lose two games in a row Jacob de Grom's here, boom he stops it

you go on a run. That's how you do that. So these guys got to stay healthy. And then in the lineup, I mean look, there are some dogs at the top of that lineup. You know, we talk about Marcus Simmon and Corseger because they got half a Billy put together

in one off season, but go look at what Nate Lowell is done. We talked about Adelis Garcia and the potential that he has if you can get that on base percentage up a little. Let's go at least. Do it. Yeah, then you've got the young guys. You got Jonah Haim.

What's Josh Young going to do this year? He had a little cup of coffee last year. Didn't go great, but you could bank on that potential. A guy like Bubba Thompson, you know, just a star type athlete. Can he put it together? Backyard Brad, where you at, my guy? He's got it all. He can do it.

He can put it together. So I think we're top heavy in the lineup. And they're going to have to produce. at a better rate than they did last year. But I think if I'm looking to point out one area that I'm concerned about, it's probably the lack of depth overall here. Well, I think it's interesting that you said that,

Trev, because that's where I wanted to go to, but I think it needs to be said the right way because, you know, we, right now our guy, Oda Rizzi is listed as what would be the sixth starter. And even, you know, Jack Lider, is this the year? Um, Cole win, another pitching prospect, uh, for them. Uh, and like BPD mentioned, Dane Dunning, uh, Glenn Otto, I think he got a cup of coffee. I guess the problem is the other phrase you said top heavy.

If you're replacing, and I don't mean this in a rude way to heen dog, but if heaney misses a month and you're filling that with Otorizzi or Jack Lider or whatever it is, okay, you're using your depth. If Martin Perez pitches like he did last year to the tune of a 25, 289 and 32 starts, he was one of the best pitchers in baseball last year. So if he's doing that, or if Jacob de Grom is Jacob de Grom, if you have to replace them with Odo or one of the young guys or whoever it is, that makes it tough. So the top heaviness and the depth, that's the issue. because like you're saying, even Simeon and Seeger or Nate Lowe, what he did last year,

those guys, if they lose one of those pieces, it's almost an instant like this team gets so much weaker. They're currently built on that top end. And that's what scares you. That's what scares you. Bodies doesn't always equate to depth. And, you know, these guys are major league players that I'm talking about here. so the ability is there to come on and have a good season. You know,

everyone that's on that roster can come out and have a good season. Now, the chances of them doing that, you know, that's what you have to talk about. So, you know, yeah,

we have people that can fill these roles, but you're right, you can't replace a Jacob de Gras. Yeah. And you can't replace those top guys in that lineup either. So look, let's bank on some help or some health this season. And you can dream upon

I kind of have them in the same boat as the angels. I really do. Like, if everything goes right, we're sitting right around that 84-86 win scenario, and you're right at the cusp of that last wildcard spot. We talk about this every episode. You know, the balanced schedule, does it hurt them? Does it help them?

I don't think it really matters to them. There's a great stat in here, though, that Dalton put in our stat sheet here. What did I just say? Stat sheet on the stat sheet, whatever. they were really bad in one-run games last year. Stuff like that, you know, gets back to the average. Like they're not going to be as bad in one-run games this year.

So you can bank on a few more wins just in that category alone. And then what they've added in the rotation, you know, I know you said, how many wins they have last year? 64? 68. 68? Can they jump? I mean, how many, yeah, you're right.

How many can you realistically jump in it? a year. I mean, there's been, there's been instances, man. First or worse happens. Right. No, it's baseball. It's why it's awesome. And that's, I was just about to say, one run stats, or one run games in baseball, is one of my favorite stats because the nerds have tried for years to tap into it. Like, how can we, how can we control it?

You can't. It's baseball. There's years where it clicks in those two plays that end up decide in the game, go your way? And there's some years where it doesn't. And that's just, that's how it works. So, yes, in theory, that should flip 15 and 35 in those games. So when we talk about, you know, trying to get, let's say the Texas Rangers goal is to get 20 games better.

I mean, hey, if in one-run games, we can get you to 25 and 25, I just found you 10. So there's, that's a great start. And then what if those, and that's luck. Again, one inning games. You can look at bullpins. You can look at whatever you want. You know, better teams are going to be slightly better in them traditionally. But it's hard to control that factor.

There's a lot of luck there. So if I can get you 10 games via luck, and then I can get you 10 games via DeGrom, Evaldi, Heaney, and some of their other pieces, the path is there. the path is there. They were 18 and 21 in one-run games in 2021, in 2021, when they, again, were a lackluster Texas Rangers roster.

So that's where you can start drinking the Kool-Aid and buy into what they're doing here. I think they're going to pitch, man. You know, there's a de Grom factor to, hey, is that 15 starts or 30 starts? Because there's a variation there. I think I'm actually into DeGrom for this year. I think last year he was building himself up for a free agency where, hey, the plan worked for him, man. No state income tax.

The lineup is what scares me. I actually love their top four. I think their top four can sneaky go with a lot of top fours in baseball between Simeon Seeger, low in Adelis Garcia. The name power might jump off. but what those guys do on a baseball field can. It's after that. And hey, that's where, that's the unknown with this team for me is, you know,

Josh Young, you mentioned he got a cup of coffee, it wasn't pretty. He missed most of the year with a shoulder injury. So tough ask, you know, that's a tough hitting injury and then to get thrown into the show. Leone Tavaris, 24, he got a cup of coffee. Josh Smith is young. Zeke Duran. Who of these youngsters can contribute to the lineup? And I don't know who that is.

Because we could also be at the end of the year saying none of them, which would be a problem. Yeah, I think a lot of people say, well, Jack Lider's coming up. Kumar Rocker they just drafted last year. I don't know if we're going to see those guys at all this year. They seemingly are on a fast track. Jack Lider had a tough year in AA last year. we'll see how he bounces back.

Those guys certainly are in the team's plans and will be there in the future at 2023. I don't know. Where is Kumar going to start this year? It'd be interesting to see all this stuff because if you get a guy like that, and we've seen this before, he's not like a typical guy out of college.

Like he had to spend some time in Indy ball because he turned down the Mets offer. So these guys could be there or they couldn't be there. And I mean, you know, this is kind of what's up in the air for the range If they have one of these guys just ball out, and then at the end of the year,

you're talking another guy, and that's a better debt piece for the rotation. I don't think you can bank on that necessarily, but the possibility is there as well. Yeah, and I want to, not debag prospects, but, you know, I think it's funny. Gunner Henderson came up, and he had a really, you know,

he had a good demo last year. I think Randy Rosarano was the best example, because after his crazy postseason, Randy was still technically a prospect. So he came out like in top 10 in prospect rankings after being unranked. Like Jack Lider. 20 games and then 20 games of a 60 game season and then was nuts in the playoffs. If Jack Lider, his first five starts at AA this year is lights out, he's back to being a top prospect and watch out for this dude.

If he goes out in there mediocre, he's not in the plans for this year. So that's where the life of a prospect can be pretty bizarre, pretty quick. But yeah, I mean, you probably hearing about those guys, at least with next year's Rangers rotation. And I wonder if the pitching so strong, can that be a place of depth where maybe we could see them do a trade to add to the offense if that's the weakness? I don't know.

I don't know. That would be something interesting to track during the season if they're in a position to attack for this year. like we just did with the halos. I mean, or is that the question? Because they gave out big boy contracts that, you know, their next year will not be a rebuild in their heads. So they're going to be looking to add major league level talent.

So I wonder if that factors into the system. Going back to those, Jimmy would bring these up, like the Stroman trade originally when that happened. That was a year and a half. the Bauer trade originally, that was a year and a half that they could be good candidates for those kind of players as well.

Man, what's next? 82.5. Really? We're there. We're there. I'll go first this time, Jake. I feel like I always pressure you into going first, but I'll give you some time here. Sure.

I'm wrestling with this one because I want to believe in this team and they've made massive improvements in a very short amount of time. I think there is definitely the potential for them to be that 84 win team. I just don't see it happening this year. I like them in 2024 if we get some of these pitching prospects, if Owen White's the real deal. I just, I want to see them be good.

I don't see it in my mind. Like every scenario that I am playing out, except for the perfect season of health. and guys at the bottom of the lineup producing, if that happens, I can see them being 84, 86, 15. But every other scenario that's playing out my mind has them sub 500. So I'm going to take the under. Can I ask you, would it change your mindset at all?

Again, there's not a lot of free agents left, but if they brought in like a David Peralta is still out there, Luke Voight, like, if they brought in any guys like that, would you love that for Texas? Or would those guys be only so much of a difference that you'd rather see them let a couple of these kids play and find out who they are? I don't think it would sway me too much. Okay. Okay. I think mentally I would.

I really wish there was, you know, even Brad Miller. Like you mentioned, you know, Brad Miller's going to find a way to play 100 games and hit. I don't know necessarily where or when or why, but he's kind of shown that. I would sneaky love if they made one other small move that even if they get outplayed by a kid, if it was David Peralta on a one-year seven mill or something like that, and then he's not much and Josh Smith beats him, like, good.

I don't know why that's holding me up for whatever reason. I'll tell you what, I'm going over. I don't believe in the Angels I love the energy that's going to be with this Texas Rangers like to put the chips on the table like that man that's a good feeling that's a good feeling

and honestly it's that one run game thing man that's 15 and 35 and one run games that is bizarrely bad that that has to flip So to what degree it flips, I don't know. But I think you're looking at a low 80s team.

Like I think they'll hang around the wild card or what it looks like hanging around the wild card and then probably be just short of it. But I guess Angels and them back to back, belly to belly, if I had to pick one of those teams, which their Vegas odds were a game apart, I lean Texas. Look, I want them to be good.

Because they went out and spent in free age and they've made a lot of changes within that organization. So I want it to be good. And if the best case scenario plays out, they will be over that 82 and a half mark. They will be flirting with that wild card. But I got to, I'm stick with my under, man. Yeah, how many times we see, you know,

team make moves like this all in one off season. Like that first year, it's hard for it to all click. And you can still be excited about what they've got going. And Jimmy is excited about it? He's on there over. Hey, now. Can I say one thing? Final note.

I have put a hex on the Rangers and have told you guys that they're one of my least favorite organizations for quite some time. But I am taking the X off, throwing it away, and now I'm indifferent about the Texas Rangers organization. I was literally going to ask you. That's good to know. That's awesome. And Jacob Vigrom, sneaky looks fire in your union. So congratulations. on that.

Could rebrand by them. Could win the sigh this year almost uncontested. And like, won't. That won't be a surprise at all. Could miss starts. You could miss a lot of starts. It won't be a surprise at all.

Yee-ho. Hew!