Talkin' Baseball (MLB Podcast) - Would You Rather: MLB Edition | 669

Episode Date: May 31, 2023

Jomboy, Talkin' Jake, & Trevor Plouffe are going through teams in comparable positions and give their opinions on who they would rather be.Use code TALKIN for $20 off your first SeatGeek order. https://seatgeek.onelink.me/RrnK/TALKINVisit http://get.bluemoonbeer.com/BASEBALL to see delivery options.Get 50% off your first box of fresh dog food at www.thefarmersdog.com/jomboy. #tfdpartner #thefarmersdogGambling problem? Call 1-800- Gambler. In Massachusetts, call [phone] or visit gambling help line m a dot org, In New York, call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369). In Kansas, call 1-800-522-4700. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino & Resort (KS). 21+ in most eligible states but age varies by jurisdiction. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings dot com slash sportsbook for details and state specific responsible gambling resources. Bonus bets expire seven days after issuance. Opt-in and 10+ leg req. for 100% boost. Eligibility, wagering, and deposit restrictions apply. Terms at sportsbook dot draftkings dot com slash baseball terms.++++Timestamps:0:00 Trevor Looks Great Today5:05 Dodgers or Braves15:30 Rays or Rangers28:15 Padres or Blue Jays38:35 Cardinals or Guardians53:30 Orioles or Diamondbacks1:05:25 Yankees or Astros Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Hello and welcome to Talking Baseball. It's the midweek episode, and we're playing a fun game of which team would you rather be for the remainder of the season. Who's got it better? Let's do it. Hello and welcome to Talking Baseball. It's May 31st the last day. That means next week we're doing all-JM team. That's exciting.

My name is Jimmy. His name is Jake Trev looking good. I don't know if that's a hoodie or a windbreaker or kind of like a nylon hoodie windbreaker combo. BPD's Behind the Dish, brought to you by Seatgeek. Jake, how you doing? James, Trevor, Davis, everyone tuning in. Excited, excited, yuck. Two months in, people, two months in from opening day.

I just had it in my head that I should go full mad dog on Trev this episode. That got myself a little excited, so we'll see where that lands. Trev, can I tell you something, and I'm going to be honest with you, and I'm going to be real. You look great this morning. You look like you feel good. All right. Okay, I didn't know where you're going to go with that one. So I like that compliment.

I appreciate that. And to answer your question, James, it's like a really sheer workout hoodie. I don't know how to explain it. It doesn't free me any heat. That's nice. So heat involved. I'm excited about this episode.

When Jake proposed this be kind of what we do, I wasn't sure. It seems like, you know, someone's going to be mad. either side. So usually that's not good for me. I have this Otani judge thing going on on the internet right now. That's really just it hurts. People make fun of me and they put jabs into me.

I don't want to do that. But then I realized something this morning. I realize that Jake has some good ideas sometimes on this show. And I think this is going to turn out to be a great episode. I too am excited about Jake's idea. And Jake. Explain the idea, Jake. a little more thoroughly,

then we'll do the first topic. Trev, when people are giving you crap on the internet, just remember they don't boo the bad players, okay, but you got some booze. I thought two-month pull, and Jim, I did this on talking yanks. We're two-sixth of the way through the season,

which some people call one-third. Yeah, it might be a little more now, because you nailed it when you said it last time. It's high and tight that, you know, third away through the season, what's going on? And I do think it's funny how a couple of these teams are positioned. And I think, how did you divide them?

The loser division and the, because, you know. No, it was, you know, the good team and then the hurting teams. Right, because it's, you know, who would you rather be not to tease anything? But, you know, would you rather be the Cardinals or the Guardians right now? The Braves or the daughters for two-thirds of the season laid out. And each team have their different perils or, um, you know, things that could go for them, that it's, who would you rather be?

We've got some brutal divisions this year. We've got some, I don't know, man. I've seen a couple teams lately that I was hoping we're going to, what's the word? Empower how I feel about them or kind of win me over. And I don't know, a couple teams recently. They haven't had the sauce. So there's a couple ways you could do this.

And I think it's going to lead to some. some good team conversations. Yeah, and we have teams that are performing well, battling off, and then teams that are struggling, batting off which team would you rather be the rest of the way? Next week will be a good players episode because it's the all-JM team,

so this will be a good way to highlight players. And maybe highlight some Blue Moon. I like Blue Moon. I've been getting Blue Moon recently. Mm. Because we're partners. And I like Blue Moon. I love the orange.

I got to be honest. The Valencia orange is just key. What's your differentiator? When I get that Blue Moon and there's an orange with it, and the waitress comes over and says, I'm such a big fan of your Blitzball content. I say, thank you. It was brewed at Corse Field in Denver, Colorado.

You know those are a couple big buttons for me. And with this summer, Why don't you get your Blue Moon delivered? Check out that get. Dot bluemoonbeer.com slash baseball. Okay. All of my favorite words, one URL. Get.

Dot bluemoonbeer.com slash baseball. Blue Moon made brighter and celebrate responsibly. That's important. Blue Moon Brewing Golden, Colorado. Click the link in the description. Have beer. First up, Dodgers, Braves. A nice battle.

It's a good one. The Braves are in first in the NL East. They're 32 and 23. The Dodgers are first in the NLS. They're 34 and 22. Their run differentials are similar. Plus 56 for the Braves, plus 61 for the Dodgers. Who would you rather be moving forward Braves Dodgers?

Dodgers have some injuries to the, He's starting rotation. Uriis, 15-day IEL. Grove went on the 15-day. Dustin May, he's 60-day. Is he, what's the injury? They're missing Walker Bueller coming into this season. But he's coming back, but we'll see.

What's Dustin Mays? He's got strained flexor. So I don't know his return. Braves a little deeper in rotation, but that Dodgers lineup. What are you looking at, Jake? Is there going to be a constant theme for you? you? I don't think there is, and I think that's why the comments section might be a fun time this episode. The Braves are funky to me, because it feels like the Mets haven't clicked

in a gear at all this year, and there's been a couple, like, hesitation, like, okay, the Mets are about to go, and at some point they have to, right? There's so much talent on that team that they have to have a hot streak and come. The Phillies, I don't know. I don't know. And then the Fish have just been floating around. Ah, fish. And for the Braves, I still see some stuff. Like, Max Freed has been out a lot, and he'll be back. And when he's out there, he's one of the most reliable starting pitchers in baseball.

Michael Harris, too, who is one of the best players in baseball last year, has been one of the worst players in baseball this year. It feels like that is going to change at some point that I think if I'm the Braves, you know, their negatives, I think I can spin. more into a positive with like the blown saves you know I still like some guys at the end of that Braves bullpen that having the most blown saves in baseball

I don't necessarily spin that as a negative thing even though that has been a negative thing yeah you can spin that both ways right these teams are these teams are just so close I mean they both have superstars in the lineup they have some guys that have underperforms so you can kind of see, you know, a little bit of positive regression with the offense.

You're talking about Michael Harris the second. You've got to imagine that he's going to get it going soon. And for the Dodgers, I mean, they've been kind of firing. Chris Taylor hasn't been himself. You know, he's doing okay. It looks like to me lineups are almost a wash. I might lean Dodgers a little bit in that category. The numbers are all pretty similar.

I think Dodgers are third and run scored and Braves are fifth and runs. scored. You have a Coonia going off for the Braes, but you have Freddie Freeman one dotting it right now. J.D. Martinez for the Dodgers has just been going off lately, so you're getting, you know, a revival of sorts from him.

The pitching is where it gets interesting to me. You know, Clayton's still there. Ureus will be there and then Gonsolin. After that, we have Bobby Miller, who's come up and looked really good, but he's still unproven at the big league level. You know I love the guy. Cindergards been not great this year.

And then, yes, Dustin May is out for months. Probably, I'd be surprised if we saw him this season. I mean, his rehab would have to go perfect. They're still talking about the possibility of surgery, which really sucks because that guy's, you know, when he's healthy, has some of the nastiest stuff in the game. And then for the Braves, I mean, yeah, we're missing Max Fried. We just got Soroka back.

And he had a decent out and got bit one inning against those pest. A's hot. Who are hot right now against the Braves. But then, yeah, you have Strider doing his thing, Morton do his thing. Elder, we talk about him frequently. You know, the baseball savant page is pretty bad, but the results are excellent. So there's just things to like about either team. I think both bullpins have guys, and then they have some mop-up.

I think there's some good backends to both these bullpins, but I don't know if I love either of them to be honest with you. Does the division, does either division sway you at all? Absolutely. I think that's going to be a huge part of who I would rather be moving forward. The Dodgers have a, according to baseball reference, Dodgers have a over 99% chance to make the postseason as we stand, which I think I agree with.

And then the Braves have a 99.3 less, according to baseball reference. Obviously both these teams are really good. I like the Dodgers lineup a lot. What they're doing is kind of crazy, man. They have seven batters with 110 OPS plus or better, seven. Seven hitters on the season that are playing over, you know, 40 games apiece. I think JD's got the lowest at 40. We Smith there, but, and then they got,

Vargas at 99 and Chris Taylor misses the cut at 98. Say Vargas how you want to say Vargas. Vagas. So, yeah. I like the Dodgers lineup a lot. I like both teams a whole bunch. The pitching on the Dodgers is more interesting because there's more composed season.

That's a different thing. But rest of the regular season, I'd rather the Dodgers. Walker Bueller says he's going to pitch. Walker Bueller is nothing, but walking, dripping, confidence. So I don't doubt that he says he's going to pitch. He's been live tweeting Dodgers games and he'll just,

every once I'm going to go, sheesh, I like that. I like that. I like that, too. He's putting out there for the boys. The consistency in both these teams' lineups is really fun. You guys know if you've listened to me talk about baseball that I love that. Like Betts has led off 50, 20-56 games.

Freeman has played every single game in the two-hole. And then over on the Brave site, Acuna has played every single game at Leadoff and Olson has played every single game in the two-hole. Talk about consistency. I fucking love that. I am going to choose Dodgers, mostly division,

and I just think their lineup, I like, it's deeper for me. But the Braves lineup's deep. So don't spit. So you still think, the East is tougher than the West? Yes. Yes.

This is really, really tough for me. I think I'd rather... Both these lineups are excellent. I think I'd rather have the Dodgers lineup. And I'm not sure if that's the right take. Like I said, they're both pretty similar as far as statistics. It's just that every time I watch the Dodgers,

it seems like someone else is doing it. It's like they have guys up and down the lineup that just... They're consistently having guys go off. which is a great way to continuously score runs. I think I'm leaning, Braves starting pitching. I think there's just more consistency there.

And then the bullpins to me are kind of a wash. So it's really, really difficult. I think I'm going to lean. Division has something to do with it too. I don't want to... I feel like I want to lean Braves. And are we talking postseason two or just regular season? I was thinking we were just doing the rest of.

of the regular season. Because that changes it for me. I think if we're going like postseason, I think I'm taking Braves. I said that that's what I said as well. But I regular, rest of the regular season, I'd take it in the Dodgers.

Postseason, we'll see where the rotation is for the Dodgers because it's a little more up in the air. I'm, ah, shit, because Urias is going to be back to that. I don't know, man. This one's really,

really tough for me. But I'll take Braves. I'll take the Braves. I'll take the Braves too. I'm currently not. sure about the divisions. That's kind of why I threw it out there. I mean, Padres, Phillies kind of feels like an eye for an eye. The whole world is blind. Um, Giants Marlins. Like, okay, that's, that's a funny chess mask. Right. Um, that's kind of like you'd start

watching that chess match. Met snakes. Hey, snakes have outperformed them. Obviously, the Mets have higher expectations in their season, but a third of the season ain't no joke. Uh, that's where I thought the division part of it is interesting. Um, I lean Braves. I lean Braves. I think kind of where I started, it feels like they haven't tapped into a chunk of it. And I think, you know, some of the Dodgers numbers, some of the pitching numbers aren't exactly where you'd expect the Dodgers to be. Both teams have had some injuries and stuff.

The other thing I wonder about when the deadline rolls up, which, hey, we started doing the regular season postseason, I think the Braves are going to be more in play than the Dodgers. Remember the Dodgers? They had their whole kind of, you know, we're over the cap, and there's the Bauer situation, and they're saving for Otani. And I don't know if the Dodgers this year at the deadline,

if these teams were, you know, cutting hairs, not a term. I think. Splitting. Splitting hairs, yes, I would go Dodgers. Or Braves, excuse me. Jeez. All right. There you have it.

The next one. What did we vote for? Well, I voted Dodgers. You two voted Braves. Oh, boy. You want off? You want off the poppy wagon? Let's move on to the raise.

Oh, I'm going Braves. Rays and Rangers. Two teams in the AL having phenomenal starts. The Rangers are first in the West. The rays are first in the east. The rays are 39 and 18. The Rangers are 35 and 19. 39 and 18.

Sorry for the raise. 35 and 19 for the Rangers. Rangers are second in OPS in MLB, only to the Rays who are first in OPS. The Rays have the most innings pitched in MLB by the bullpen. I think that's actually a bad thing. And the Rangers have the fewest innings pitched by the bullpen in MLB. I think that's actually a great thing.

I didn't know that until I just read those out loud. Oh, you might like those, Jim. Yeah, that's pretty big numbers. Um, the raise, uh, lineup numbers are, you heard me mention it with the Dodgers, but with the raise, it's absolutely disgusting. Yandi Diaz, Randy Roserania, Josh Lowe, Luke Rayleigh, Wanderfranco, Harold Ramirez, Jose Siri, Taylor Walls, Isok Parades, and Christian Bethincourt. That's 10 different players on the raise, all have an,

OPS Plus above 120. It's nuts. That's They've been able to continue this. We thought April might be an outlier for this team. A lot of people did. And then they've been able to continue their offensive prowess into May.

Record not the same. They went undefeated in April as Jake likes to point out. But this team is just nuts. Both of these teams' offenses are incredible. You mentioned, you know, the Rangers first and average, first in runs. And then the race second and average second in runs. But they lead in OBP, they lead in OPS, they lead in stolen bases, lead in homers.

Like pick your poison with these two offenses. And then the pitching staffs, like you mentioned, first in ERA for the race, second in the IRA for the Rangers. Which is, where do you go with these? The raise, you got to be honest. At this point, it would just be fade in the fade. Like, they had their undefeated April. They've been 16 and 12 this month, which, again, normally for any team, that's an incredible month, but compared to what they're coming off of.

The Texas Rangers have built upon a good April where they've gone 18 and 8 this month. And as we go through all those crazy offensive numbers and the raise are first place, by the way, if we had our OPSS, our OPS plus steals, the raise would be even better. They got seven guys with five steals. They're the best stolen base team in baseball with how they're mauling. It's just they're hitting you from every direction with the number one starting pitching ERA. So the Rangers are second in both of those. Hey, Corey Seeger was out for a chunk of that time and he's back and he looks like Corey Seeger,

which maybe the Texas Rangers will come for those offensive numbers. You can also play the DeKrom card if you want to, although that might be more tied into a postseason thing at this. point. For me, I think if you're, I guess, coming down to these two, the Texas Rangers, you start going into division, right? And the big bad wolf is coming. Houston, all of us believes in what that team is about because they've been the sixth

straight championship series. They won the World Series last year. They were without Altova. They're coming, and they've already shown that in the standings, that if you're Texas, that's something that got to be in the best. back of your head all year. Like almost a la Mets Braves last year, right? Like when the Mets were so good and Cohen fever, right?

And then the Braves came up and clipped them at the end of the year. Like if Houston's within two games within any time in September, September, they're scary and you almost believe in them more. So I almost with that lurking, like if I'm looking at these like dating options, It's almost like the Texas Rangers have like, I don't know, an X in their division that's, I don't know, banged all of my, all of my girlfriends. What is? What? So, I mean, I need a question answered for me. Okay.

Is it more about who's going to win their division or just make play out? Like, you know what I'm saying? Like, I feel like Texas has a better chance to win their division. Yeah. But it's, it's. I don't know if that means they're the better teams. Yeah, it's win the division. Let's do that or make the playoffs.

With these first two groupings, we're doing good teams. When you get to the teams that are struggling, we're not talking about winning the World Series. We're talking about, you know, getting it together, making a playoff team and putting yourself in a good spot come end of the season for the remainder of the season. So let's do that. I mean, both divisions have teams that can come up and snatch,

the crown from these two teams. I mean, you talked about Houston. and don't sleep on the angels. I think they really could get going. I've watched quite a few of their games now. I'm more of a believer in now than I have been in a long time. We know what the AL East has in store. You guys love the Orioles, obviously.

Toronto is still there. I don't know what to make of them either. I just watch them play and they're interesting. Both these teams, bullpents, have not really performed. They've had some bad outings. You called upon. you said, James, that the race have used their bullpen more than anyone. I think that for any other team, that would mean more,

but the raise kind of don't care about that. Although it might have, the numbers aren't great, so maybe it has impacted it. This is another just, like, extremely tough one. I think I'm leaning raise here because they just seem like they can beat you in so many different ways. Now the Rangers have been going off offensively. Their pitching has just been way better than expected.

I think this is like best case scenario pitching for them. The raise, I want to see what Glass Now looks like over the next couple starts, but I think I'm leaning raise here. It's not a wrong answer in this one. I mean, if you want to look at the raise, they are, they've been try to find like maybe reasons why you would not pick them. I'm not trying to knock them, obviously, but if you're just searching,

they've been really good at home. They've played the most home games in MLB. They had the easiest schedule in April. So not only were they playing the worst teams in the league, they were also playing the most home games in the league. They are 13 and 12 on the road, which isn't great. It's one game above 500. It's a winning record, but it's not incredible.

10 and 10 in their last 20. I actually think the bullpen's been so bad for the raise that it's going to level out and be better. I don't think it's going to get worse. And then the other thing that Jake uses his argument against the Rangers that I fully agree on is this is their first time leading the division and trying to do that game the whole way through. And we've seen the Padres do this. and we've seen the Mets do this, and you see the team that gets good and is like going crazy,

and when you got a big bad wolf in the division, you get hunted down. And I'm not going to really bet against the Astros, even at this point. So I'm going to go raise. They've been good. They've tapped into figuring out offense now, which I think is absolute bullshit.

I mean, be good at pitching, relief pitching, defense, and pinch hitting. But to be good at your starters and all of them, for all of them to be good at hitting, that's illegal. And I don't like that. Have a flaw. It is the bullpen. But I will stamp my pick.

I'll take the raise. They've done it before. And the numbers are unbelievable. It's hard to not pick the raise, right? They got off to a historic start. For whatever reason, I'm now looking at their schedule. Like, that's going to change how I think about the raise right now. Yeah, it's like the...

Texas is going to have to have to take down the biggest, baddest wolf that we've seen in baseball for the past 20 years or so. And it's hard to, it's hard to not be against them. So it's almost not a Texas problem. It's a Houston problem. Where the race, like, yeah, you know, Yanks can win a lot of games and they're looking a lot better. And the birds are tough. And if you were going against the raise, it would almost be like,

this isn't sustainable. Like, you know, almost in a way, what they've been doing hasn't been sustainable. They started out 13 and 0. Remember that. And then, you know,

this month went down a little bit. And then, you know, if the rest of the division does catch up, you start doing this thing like, oh, are we wasting our historic start? But no, for me, this is a Houston effect. I'll go raise. And guess what?

The fact that we sweep raise, Texas fans, They're in a really good spot right now, man. They had some really funny replies to my tweet the other day because they basically have this whole thing going that's like, that we don't care. And it's all pictures of like DeGrom and Simeon and Seeger not smiling. And it's really funny because guess what?

If you are the national audience, you don't really have a big reason to believe in Texas over Houston. So they can show us this year, Tampa, we need. know what they've done the past few years. They're really good. There's a couple of reasons I could say Rangers over Astros. I think the starting pitching is, well, we've had some injuries for the Astros. Their depth is being tested. I just watched Bealeck throw against my twins last night. He's all right. JP France, you're right. But I guess I haven't really been thinking about the Rangers

rotation with DeGromenant. I just. I think I have to like wrap my head around that because he is in the rotation. He's hurt now, but I think he's going to be there. It's just how many games? Like with a healthy de Grom and the way I Eovaldi is thrown the ball. I'm like, I mean, they, ah. Yeah. Did I already say Ray's?

Yeah. Yeah. I'm sticking with the raise, but it's so damn close. All right. No, it else is pretty close to me. My dog noodle. Yeah. Me and that little freak,

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The Farmer's Dog. Next up, two teams that are not doing as well as they want. wanted to come start of the season. You got the Blue Jays and the Padres. So we're talking not even different divisions now. We're talking different leagues. Blue Jays are fourth in the AAL East. They're 29 and 26.

And the Padres are fourth in the NL West. They're 25 and 29. So Padres have a losing record. Blue Jays still have a winning record, but they are in one of the tougher divisions going on right now. Padres have a zero-run differential, which isn't good and the Blue Jays are plus 25

and the Blue Jays are good in one-run games Padres are bad in one-run games Trevor, I let you lead off any initial thoughts about these two teams I think I have a take here that's going to be very controversial so I'm hesitant to share it because I don't know if I necessarily believe

in this take but it entered my head right away the Blue Jays are full of guys and they perform better than the Padres Let's just get that out there in the open right now. Like this has been a better team in the Padres. The Padre's offense has been absolutely atrocious. And I'm looking at the roster and I'm thinking, well, shit, they already paid all of these guys. Like, I'm not saying that these guys aren't motivated.

I'm not saying that. They're going to go to the park and they're going to, you know, be professionals and do their routine and everything like that. But when you got a bunch of guys who are still looking to get paid, and know that they got to continue to actually put up numbers and it really matters for them, I think there's a little bit more dog in those kids, right? Like, it has to be that way.

Matt Chapman is on the contract year. Vladdy hasn't got paid. Bow hasn't got paid. You know, Brandon Bell is, you know, he's already got his thing. He's been going off lately. Like, is there a chip on his shoulder? There's just, like Alejandro Kirk,

there's just, these guys still have. have to perform. They've put pressure on themselves by, you know, like saying some things in the media. We don't have to always bring that up. But like, I feel like there's, there's an edge to the Blue Jays that I don't know if the Padres necessarily will have just because of the fact that a lot of these guys are locked up for the next, like, six or seven years, some guys longer than that. So that's, That's my non-statistical, but I think it does matter, take on these two teams.

Like, it just seems like there's some hungry dudes over here, and there's some guys that have been fed a lot. They got a lot of hungry dog, with farmer's dog in them. Do you know what I mean? I think I know what you mean. Any sense to you guys? No, but, like, even going to, I was just laughing because,

you know it does. You know it does. Don't fucking give me that. Remember, remember Croninworth got an extension? It was like seven for 80 and we were like, all right, boring. Like for the Padres, that was nothing. That they are, I said fade the fade before. Machado.

They're all locked up, bro. They don't, they could just go. They're counting their money every day in their locker room. They're just like, oh, ew, what's this $50 doing in my wallet? They show up in the locker room and they have money counting parties. You think that's what's going on in San Diego. Oh. Have you been in the big league clubhouse?

Oh, okay, Treve. Wow. Yes. And I saw, I almost saw Bryce Harper naked. The Padres, they get Mani Machado back soon. They're saying he could be back Friday. He is a big piece for them. They are the most top end talent team in baseball.

You know, Tatis took a little bit to get gone. He missed a year of ball. He showed the signs versus the Yanke. I saw some sign from Padres' Twitter last night. No, I'm not. You can raise your hand, but you can keep it up there. You're out. Who's the one guy that's not paid yet for the Padres?

Juan Soto, and he's the guy hitting. Yeah, I get it. We will look up at one point this season and say the Padres are on a 8, 12 and 2 streak, something like that, and get back in the mix. For the Blue Jays, man, You know, part of me doesn't love saying this Because, boy, are they feisty on the internet streets?

But, like, what are you done, Jays? You got your coach fired last year. You're sitting towards the bottom of the division on any given night And depending if you are the Red Sox win or lose. And like, I don't know, like the rays and Orioles, I think they're in a different class. The Yankees are hoping to be in a different class that, I don't know.

Like if the Padres kick into gear in the next two weeks, I think we'll start dreaming of like the second place Padres. The Blue Jays have half, they've kind of been in gear

and it feels like second place can't happen for them. So that's more divisional than team targeted. But what have the Padres done? You're talking about what the Blue Jays have done. What are the Podres done? They went to the CSS.

Yes. Compared to what the Blue Jays have done, that's incredible. That's comparable. No. No. What, one extra series? Blue Jays haven't won a series.

I don't think they've won a game. I just, to be honest, to do you, like I know Jimmy hasn't given his thoughts yet, but I think this is a no-brainer. But I'll let, I'll let Jimmy go. The only thing hurting Toronto is their division. I mean, they're performed well. They have seven of their guys,

have OPS plus above 100. They have good offensive numbers. They have a team batting. average of 266, team OPS of 755, like they're just in a tough division. Even their starting pitchers, you know, besides Minowah, none of them are terrible. Kukuchi's got a bad one, but you look at just ERA. Their bullpen hasn't been terrible. They're good in one-run games.

They play a lot of hard teams, and it feels like there are some nights just it's not there or some like, actually it feels like the Blue Jays, and correct me if I'm wrong, Blue Jays fans, it feels like they go through like a good home. A bad homestand. I probably could look up the numbers, but it just kind of feels like, are they traveling and, you know, on a heater? Or like, it's just like their mood lingers almost.

And they can't just wake up and be a goldfish, you know, and forget it and move on. The division is the only reason I would choose the Padres. I think they've done way more. I think the Blue Jays have done way more. But I don't know. Yeah, I'll take the Blue Jays. I think they're going to make the postseason.

they're going to three teams from the east probably will. I guess adding, adding to your point or spinning off of your point in just a different light, it feels like if this was boxing, Dan Kenobio, that like the Blue Jays, you know, we're three or four rounds in and they've been boxing and kind of doing their thing a little bit and they're not winning the fight. The Padres are three or four rounds in. Feels like they haven't done anything that they're supposed to do right and they're still in the fight. So for me, like, if I'm in that corner,

you have a little bit more hope because if it clicks... What fight are the Padres in right now? They have the games back in the division, bro. Unwear are the Blue Jays, dog? Like, nine. So if you're the Padres, you haven't really had much go right.

You're supposed to have a historic top four. You said that three of those guys were going to homer in multiple games this year multiple times. And like, this offense hasn't done a thing. That's before the money counting part. They started that up. The Blue Jays have better odds right now to make the postseason than the Padres,

according to like fan graphs and baseball reference. And then once they're in. So I think I'm taking Toronto. Okay. I'm taking Blue Jays and right now it's not even particularly close for me. I'm not saying the Padres can't turn it around. Like they obviously have the players on their team to put together a run. They look.

They look great. They beat, look. I'll hand it to the poddies. You beat the Dodgers in the playoffs. That's awesome. That was great last year. It looked really good. But it's a new year and things aren't,

they haven't gone the way you thought they were going to go. I think Blue Jays have another level. All their starting pitchers have made every single one of their starts. I think that's something that's cool and we didn't talk about. The Blue Jays? Yeah. Manoa has been affected by the pitch clock. That's what everyone's saying.

can you figure that out please? I guess you didn't have a lot of time to figure it out but let's get it going. I expect him to come back to at least a little bit more average. He's been pretty bad. I'm taking the Blue Jays. I'm Padres and Jim, you meant I don't know if you were looking at baseball reference. Fan Graves actually has the Padres with a higher chance to make the playoffs.

Oh yeah, baseball reference has the Blue Jays at 59%. and the Padres at 38%. This has Padres at 59 and Blue Jays at 49. 49.5. So it's an interesting combo. Yeah. I mean, Toronto is what, in six plays in the AL? Like, they're not really having,

they have a winning season. If I was a Blue Jays fan, I'd just be like, get me out of division games. or, you know, start winning some division games. You're there. It's more the company you keep. Padres have just been disappointing no matter where they're playing. I think I've taken all East Coast teams so far.

Oh, my goodness. That's what's in your soul. Fun stat I didn't say about the Rangers and the Rays is those two teams are combined 16 and 2 versus the AL Central. Oops. That's the great division at Central. They're crushing it right now. Those tigers, they're pesky.

Next up is one that Jake is very excited about. The guards cards. Oh, pumping into my veins. Two different leagues again. Guardians third in the AL Central, 24 and 30, losing record, but three and a half games back. Cardinals fifth in the NL Central, 25 and 32, losing record four and a half games back. Cardinals minus 36 run differential, but that's not their game.

Never has been. Yeah, Jake, take lead off because you were excited about this one. This is fun, man. And this is, you know, closing time at the bar, and there's, like, one, you know, there's a good-looking girl, but she's hooked up with all your buddies and the Cardinals, and then there's a girl that- Why do you keep talking about girls hooking up with all, like? The Guardians, on the other hand, like, they had, you know, they kind of had a second sophomore year semester.

They kind of like, whoa, they kind of turned everyone's head, and then they came back again, and they're like, oh, I don't know what the hell's going on there? They don't hit anymore? I don't know. I mean, like, the Guardians, think about what's going on in the AL Central right now. The Twinkies have been dominant. By default,

the tigers are in second place and like, I'm happy. Hold on, I'm going to stop here. No, no, no, no, no. Dominant. They have not been dominant. They've been in first place like 99% of the days in the AL Central by default.

So for the Cardinals, you have a different book. you have, they had a historically bad April, and they've bounced back decently this May to have a winning record. The Pirates got off to their hot star. It's looking like that's down the turlid. That it's looking like it's going to be Cards Brewers, which we would have said before the season,

but the Brewers have kind of been disappointing in their own way. They had, I think, I did the top 15 kind of, worst hitters in baseball this year, and I think four Brewers popped up, over 100 played appearances, that if either of these teams has a nice June, they're back being potential favorites for their division, and they've both been, guardians have been consistently disappointing. The Cardinals had one horribly disappointing month and one, like, solid month, and it's kind of, what do you want to do with that?

I mean, the Guardians are the worst offense in baseball. The worst offense in baseball. And Chris Rose always says this, and mind do the A's exist? Or do you always say that? Somebody. Well, same guy just 40 years apart. One of the two clown says that. Oh, this is a tough one.

No, it's not. It's really not. Wow. I look up and down on this Guardian's roster. and I see them looking to trade some of their best players. Like if there's a strong possibility that Shane Bieber gets traded. And then if we take him away, like what are we really doing in Cleveland? You don't have the offense to do it.

You know, you've built this reputation as being able to develop starting pitchers, and you have. And that's been your strong point. Your bullpen's been great. You're starting pitching, you know, has shown flashes. Shane Bieber is one of the best. but if you're not if they don't turn the offense around

I don't think they they keep Bieber around and the Cardinals they're kind of all in like they're not going to be trading people away they're going to be trying to add because this is a window for them so I think I'm easily leaning Cardinals here

even though they got up to an abysmal start even though they've had club out of shenanigans sounds like they're riding the ship in that regard. And there's just too many there's too many good players on the Cardinals for me to not pick them in this scenario. I just, I know the starting pitching woes are there and they need to figure that out.

And that's a big deal to me. You guys know I love starters. And I think that definitely, you know, means a lot to how your season's going to go. But again, I think one team's going to be in ad mode and one team's going to be in cell mode. And to me, that's a no-brainer then. I take the Cardinals. The reason that this is so interesting of a choice

is because we're looking at two one-bid divisions, basically. Like, you got to win your division to get into the postseason in the two centrals. That's what we're, that would happen last year, and that's kind of what's looking. We're going to be pretty surprised that's not how it shakes out. Yeah. And that's interesting to me because the Cardinals have just,

I mean, it's one game, but. they dug a big hole for themselves, and it's, I don't think the twins are that great, but the brewers aren't. Both those teams look like they're going to come down to earth. I don't know. It's pretty close.

I agree with what you're saying, Treve, that the talent is maybe better on the Cardinals. But my God, I don't know. The vibes to that season are so bad that it's hard to, like, really rally and overcome that, in my opinion. And the guardians, I feel like they're just like, well, this is what we do. We're not supposed to be great offensive team.

We're just going to bunt and singly to death. I don't know if they feel that off from where they're. J. Ram's supposed to be the only guy that has all-star numbers. They're 30th in runs. 30th in homers. 30th in OPS. Like that is. Not saying they're good.

I'm just saying that they're celebrating all that shit last year. But somehow, what were they last year? We looked that up. They were good at hits. They were fourth in the AL and hits last year, which I remember in this offseason talking about beating the, you know, without the shift, I mean, shouldn't, if they're a hitting team, shouldn't they be benefited by that?

Only Jose Ramirez is gone. Oscar Gonzalez got sent down, and he was like a guy for them last year. Kwan had a tough start. He's heading back up. No one, Jimmy's OPS Plus game, it's Jose Ramirez. He's the only one above sea level, insane. So, again, if you wanted to spin that for your Guardian's argument, you'd say, someone's got a hit, like sign Lou from the warehouse, like figure it out. But also,

it's been so tough that I don't know, man. You just, I think both of these organizations have credit. You know, the Guardians have, within their means, have operated really well. The Cardinals the same way. I mean, if we start getting the managers, fire me up, Tito versus Marmol. Yeah, man, I mean, both of these teams have felt like rock bottom at different points. Last year

in OPS as a team, what were you looking at? You wanted runs? Just guardians, I want to know just guardians. Yeah, what their offensive ranking was last year. I know they... So in runs, they were... Put the bat on the ball. They were above average in runs.

One, two. 16 and runs 16 and hits In OPS plus they were 102 So barely above average And below average in OPS Bottom 10 in slugging So yeah they're way worse here

But I really have no idea I mean I think the copouts Just saying Cardinals Because there's more talent And I think I believe in I don't know Like the twins might be able to scratch and claw

Tigers might give them some fight Where I think I don't know how much Are going to be an ad mode as well I don't think they'll stand pat They believe that they have I just don't know how much fight In the window

The Pirates Cubs and Reds are really going to be given Down the stretch And I think The Reds are pretty good The Reds are getting good Yeah. I'm going to go. I'm going to go.

I'm going to go Cardinals, but I don't, I don't believe in anything here. I'm just going to say the Cardinals. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, you don't believe in anything.

It's, ooh, you believe and not believing. Is that counting crows? Who is that? I believe. I mean, the crazy part is the Guardians

head to Minnesota for four this weekend. And if they have their best weekend of baseball, they could be your first place guardians. It's where baseball is disgusting. And you know, you can also change the mojo of a season like that. That if they went into Minnesota against their starting pitching that's been electric and they hit all weekend and the vibe changes like that, or they might not touch Minnesota's pitching.

So I don't know, man. I think St. Louis is probably the answer. and I think the difference maker for me is after that April, both of these teams are in very similar positions and the Cardinals have shown me a winning month of baseball. Dude, fuck it. I want the Cleveland out because Bieber, they will trade Bieber. He's a year and a half.

That's when they trade pitchers. That's when they traded Cleve. That's when they traded Bauer, correct? I might be wrong there, but I believe both those guys had a year and a half left. when they trade their starting pitchers that are worth trading. So if Beaver's on the market, that's more fun time for me as a third-party fan. So I'll take the Cardinals. A couple last things here.

I love Cleveland's bullpen. Have you seen those names in there, the guys, the stuff? I like Cleveland's bullpen sands one. Okay. Here's my new question. By the way, I just noticed it was episode 669. Great job, BBD. 0.5 over under

teams that we just discussed to make the playoffs, Cardinals, Guardians. Point five is the over under. Over. Easy over. One of them will win their division. You think one of them's going to win the division?

Wow. Yeah. I don't know if you've seen, what we talked about in the other episode, or you were gone, the Brewers, every number says that what they're doing isn't sustainable.

Like their luck, their Pythagrame, they're like offense. Is that what they kind of do, though? It's got the Guardians do. They're just not doing it right now. Guardians usually have around these numbers, but are winning. You said. Cardinals? Yeah, I'm Cardinals.

I want them to trade. You said. Birds. Birds on the bat. I'm taking the Cardinals as well. If you gave me a decent, if you gave me a decent, little draft Kings line like a plus 350 both of them to win the division

I'd place the bet. Do it right now. You can make your own line on draft kings. Maybe I will Jim because at the draft king sports book America's top rated sportsbook app. I'll help you out. You just read the disclaimer at the end because I've been hot. I'll place the bet. Disclaimer is nuts. No, that's quick. I...

In a good way. I've been hot Trev on draft kings. Two nights in a row. I think if the Yankees play West Coast series and I'm up late at night and I'm loopy, that means I'm going to win money. So on Draft Kings, I bet Judge to hit a home run in the exact at bat,

$20, $100, $100. That was nice. Last night, Willie Calhoun smokes fastballs. And Logan Gilbert throws 65% fastballs to lefties. So I was like, okay, Willie's going off. I bet that he was going to have over, it was runs plus RBIs plus hits, over one and a half.

Easy bet on that. I think I got, it was like plus 105. so I bet 2142 or whatever the math is there. So yeah, I've been hot. If you want to come into my secret society of just like hot picks, you're not welcome. It's pretty secret. Is that your secret society?

It's hot picks? Hot picks. Late night, West Coast hot picks. Yeah. Secret Society of Hot picks is what it's called. You can do that. You can also. He and Jake have one too.

That's hot picks. Yeah. Yeah. It's different type of category. Mostly Livy and Jess. So if you want to join out, join us, You can also put $5 and get $200 in bonus bets instantly on any baseball game right now. So you put the $5, you get $200 bonus bets.

You try to get into my secret club to turn that into more. You're not allowed. Plus, all customers can take a shot at bigger payouts with Draft King's. Step-up, same game parlayers. Download the Draf King Sportsbook app, sign up with code talking. New customers, we get $5, get $200 in bonus bets. Instantance code, talking only at Drap Kings Sportsbook. See draftings.com slash sportsbook for details.

State-specific responsibility, gambling. Resources, details are in the description. So a couple updates. Yeah. I famously a few weeks back placed Cardinals to win the division when they were close to Rock Bottom. It was plus 425. Their odds are up to plus 210.

Cash out. To win the division. I could cash out. It was $25. I could make $8 right now. No, no cash out. I'm not going to cash out because I can win $131. and I think I will.

A Guardian's Cardinals Parlay, which again, the twins probably deserved a little more love than they got there, but one weekend of baseball, for both of them to win their divisions, plus one three, one seven, 25 to win 354. Let's do it. Did you make it yourself?

Yeah. When you make a bet like that, can you send it to people? Or does draftings have to, like, make, you know, the offer? Like, are you able to like, hey, I made this. do you want in it and group chat it? Seems like it'd be a nice feature. I think they do have that feature. You can make betting groups.

You can make groups and stuff where you can like see the bet and click it and bet. We should do that. We should do that. There's nothing better than having picks together. What's that? There's nothing better than having picks together. Jake loves people banging his girls.

Same thing. What the? There's been a lot of that talk going on lately. Twains are 74.6 to make playoffs. 74 to win the division. You make it? I just made the bad. I didn't make the group.

Last up, or second to last, depending on if we do the last one. Orioles and Diamondbacks. Wow. Bird versus snake. You're going to choose bird there. They got the, you know, the ability to escape much easier.

Even an orio? I don't know. Snakes, eat oriels kill? But an oracle can fly away from a bird, so you're going to draw at best. Interesting. Snake would have to pull.

I'm crazy to get a bird. Well, no, they slither around camouflaging themselves. If the bird has wings and eyesight, I'm taking the birds, unless they use hearing more. Anyway, Orioles are second in the AL East. They're 35 and 20.

Three games back. The Diamondbacks are second in NL West. They're 32 and 23. They're one and a half games back. Biggest difference for here, for me here, Trev, and I think you might echo this is starting pitching.

Diamondbacks, I like. They're starting pitching more than the Orioles. starting pitching for the long haul. And that's kind of just on gut feel, so I can go check the numbers if I'm wrong, correct me. But top end starters for the debacks. Marilyn and Zach have been twirling it. There's a guy named Tyler Wells that has found something pretty,

he's figured it out for the Orioles. I would say that you're right if you're just going top end pitching that I would go with the snakes. But I don't think that's all that this entails here. This one's a little bit closer than I thought. I'm kind of like looking at all these stats now. And it's, I thought I was going to be a bird, no doubt here. But I don't want to ride off the snakes just yet.

My boy, Longoria just hit a 480 foot homer the other day. And he's putting this leather jacket they're wearing now, which he put it on. And I got, I was like, okay, I see what's going on now. Trevor, kind of tell you something a little sad quick. I'm not ready to make my decision yet. I really want to wear the Arizona Homer jacket. I'm actually figuring out a way to make that happen. And then I got really sad because it looks big on Longo.

So I am going to look like a fucking child on Christmas Eve wearing that thing. Child on Christmas Eve, what does that mean? Don't worry about it. Do you have some weird thing? Happened you on Christmas Eve? I don't know what that is. You wore dad's clothes. You just put the nose of the plane in front of it.

No, you don't. Okay. Or you don't have that bond. Christmas is a weird time for a lot of people. Now we're talking. Yes. I'm taking the Orioles. Okay.

Their offense is really good. How long's Mullen's out for? It was groin. He just went on a 10 days. So that's going to be a month or two. Do they say what level strain it is? Or is it a pull? Cedric Mullen's groin.

Oh, he already had that page up. Aaron Hicks, rocking the facial hair already. And I don't want to knock our guy Gibby who's pitching well. Nobody with a real answer. Grade two.

So he's out for a month. And then you've got to come back. It said it can be measured in weeks rather than months. Yes. A three and a half weeks. So yeah, three weeks. Something being a little ignored here.

The snakes have been getting some back end of their bullpen efforts, but these bullpens are very different. Yanier and King Felix are two of the best on the back end that you'll get. They can, you know, those three innings can end. It feels like there's been a little bit of snake oil at the end of the dimeback's bullpen. And Jim, it's funny, you know, we watch a lot of Baltimore games. We are Yankee fans.

We announced that. The snake's offense grades out better than the Orioles. does? Yeah, on a lot of levels. These snakes can mash, and they have a star in Corbyn Carroll. Like, you can go, you know, Corbyn Carroll for Adley Rushman. Like, there's some stuff there that, I don't know. The Orioles have a...

That's top three. Goreal, Perdomo, and Carol really help it out, because they're all having really good seasons. where the Orioles is a little more spread out. Kattel started to go to. But yeah, I agree with the depth of that Orioles lineup is very impressive. When you play them, there's not really any. You don't breathe.

And to compare them to a team that is having a bad season, so this is an obvious. The Padres, when the Yankees played the Padres, there was a big breathing room when you got through the top. Yeah. And there's a lot of teams. There's big, even the Blue Jays at times felt like, oh, here's a stretch.

The Yankees? Well, the Yankees have a ton of breathing room. Not recently, though. Not recently. But it's rare to find a team where you're like, fuck, dude, this doesn't really stop. And the Orioles have built a team that you kind of just bring it. They're just grinding at bats. They're going to get results.

They're going to make it hard, which I value in the long haul of the season to not be relying on three guys. That's Jakey Analytics there. Have a better lineup, a longer lineup, and it's going to be good for your team. I think the Orioles have like a, they have a plan, and I guess you could say a lot of teams want to do this, but it seems like the Orioles have been able to do it more often than not. They want to get their starters to go, like,

just give me some length and keep the game close. Like, we're going to continue to score, then our bullpen's going to be lights out. So they don't, they're going to want another starter in that rotation, you know, when it comes down to it. Now are they going to add one via trade? they have so much prospect capital,

they have so much wiggle room with their payroll, which I guess you could say the same thing with the snakes. But it seems to me like that's their recipe. Like give me five innings. Give me five innings to keep the game close and we'll take our chances with the Orioles.

And I don't know if you can say the same thing with the snakes. And I found it fascinating that their offense was similar to the Orioles. I think they haven't beaten OPS, they haven't beaten runs, which is not something that I have related to the Diamondbacks, but hey, man, they're putting it up, dude. The defenses are kind of different,

and I thought the Orioles were supposed to be one of the better defensive teams that just haven't been this year. Did you mention that when you talked about him? Mateo's been good. Mullins is good. I think they've always struggled corner outfield, but I'm talking blindly here. Outts above average or 30th in baseball.

and then the dimebacks are third in baseball. So defensively, you have to get to the snake. Who's hurting the Orioles so much? I'd have to look. Yeah, that's interesting. Good note. So these teams are very similar. They expanded standings page on baseball reference,

which I like like versus lefties, versus righties versus teams over 500 versus less. These teams are very similar. There's not one category where you're like, well, they're really good at this and they're really bad at this. Very similar. Now the division, the East is pretty tough, but the Orioles are part of the toughness.

So it's kind of hard when you're part of it to be, tear you down about that. If the Orioles were bad, then the East wouldn't be as tough. That makes sense. Where the D-backs have the Dodgers, but I think, you know, both divisions are going to have multiple post-season teams. Are the Orioles going to go get help?

Because the Diamondbacks parted ways with Madbum early. they've kind of like let you know they're going to go for it, I believe. There's an interesting combo there. The dimebacks operate differently. And in this argument, you know, we, the everyone was like, oh, the Orioles are going to make a splash this off season. And they did with sexy Kyle Gibson. But outside of that, we thought they were going to, you know, we moved back a wall and

we raised it to go get pitching. And guess what? Like that it didn't really happen. And like, I think both of these teams obviously believe in their young cores, why wouldn't you? You assembled them and they're playing well. I think if there's a move to be made at the deadline, the snakes. More likely.

I believe they'll make a move. Yeah. The Orioles. Well, they came out and said, like, we're still young. Like, we're still growing. Right. Yeah. The outs above average thing, Trev.

I said Mateo's been good at short. He's got one, you know, out above average. I said Cedric Mullins is good in center. Three above average. Mullins might be out now. The rest of the infield is fucking awful. That's crazy. Adam Frazier minus five.

Ramon Ureus minus four. Ryan Mountcastle minus four. Gunner Henderson minus three. So you got two third basements in Henderson and Eurias, first baseman in Mountcastle and Frazier at second all minus. Collectively, collectively minus 16 in the infield? How's above average?

And that's like a bunch of, I think Urius was a shortstop. Henderson was a short stop. He typically said. That's kind of odd. Young. Yeah. So I don't know.

I chose the Orioles. I think I changed to the D-backs. Also, I'm a biased Yankees fan. But I do think the Orioles are a tough team. I don't really like playing them as much as I used to. 55.8% to make the playoffs for the snakes, 43.6%. Is that fan graphs?

The playoffs for the Orioles. that's on fan graphs. Let me see what B-Ref, because they clearly have different formulas. B-Ref has the Orioles at 49.9 to make the postseason and the Diamondbacks at 72.9. So I'll take the Diamondbacks. I was already to take them.

Already taken. Yeah. Did you guys lock? This one's tough for me because Go birds. If I go snakes, I get to play with my best friend, Evan Longoria. If I go Orioles,

I get to play with my best friend, Kyle Gibson. Oh. So, so go green. Obstain. You do whatever one. You go first. He's on the snakes.

And you're on the snakes. Yeah. I'm going snakes. Almost only because Cedric Mullins is out for a month, which happened yesterday. Otherwise, I don't know. It's very close.

But Mullins has obviously been massive to that team. I'm looking at their May records right now. Oh, nice. 16 and 10 for the snakes. In May. And 16 and 11 for the fucking birds.

I told you all those numbers are the same. You got five seconds. You can abstain. I'm going snakes. Wow. All right. Last one just for you, Trev. Because I don't think we should have a long combo about this one.

This has been a very fun. episode. And oh, Trev, do you know you're in the video game? Have you seen it yet? Because we're doing a live stream all day and your character is pretty hot. Super mega. Yeah, he's got a better drawline than me. I'm kind of jealous of my character a little bit. Yeah, he's a lefty. I have not played myself yet. Famously, I'm not a video game guy, but famously play yourself a lot. I would like to. You're in there as a creator. As the music rolls, Trev, Yankees, Astros, thank you guys very much for listening. Tune in again.

Yankees Astros. Who would you rather be? Moving forward, Trev. This year? Yeah. The whole game. Astros. Astros. H-Chown, Fungentown, City where the top drop. City where it's... It takes. Kelsey's from, I guess. Although, my twins are about to take the Sears and I'm 10th.

Louis Barlin, former high school wrestler. Louis Valins! I'm going to bet Houston right now. Above average wingspan. Should have... Should have put Houston in the guards cards. He would put you in a chokehold and you would die. But then he would revive you with CPR because he's a really nice guy.