Tangle - A major intelligence leak.

Episode Date: April 12, 2023

Last month, a trove of about 100 pages of classified documents began appearing on Discord, an app for group discussions. But in recent weeks, the same documents spread across Twitter, 4chan, and Telegram, raising awareness about their contents and what U.S. officials have now described as a "massive" and consequential intelligence leak.You can read today's podcast here, today’s “Under the Radar” story here, and today’s “Have A Nice Day” story here. Today’s clickables: Quick Hits (12:57), Today’s Story (12:59), Left’s Take (5:30), Right’s Take (8:41), Isaac’s Take (12:17), Your Questions Answered (15:42), Blindspot Report (18:17), Under the Radar (18:54), Numbers (19:42), Have A Nice Day (20:25)You can subscribe to Tangle by clicking here or drop something in our tip jar by clicking here.Our podcast is written by Isaac Saul and edited by Zosha Warpeha. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75.Our newsletter is edited by Bailey Saul, Sean Brady, Ari Weitzman, and produced in conjunction with Tangle’s social media manager Magdalena Bokowa, who also created our logo.--- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/tanglenews/message Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages six months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at flucellvax.ca.

From executive producer Isaac Saul, this is Tangle. Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening, and welcome to the Tangle podcast, a place where you get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking without all that hysterical nonsense you find everywhere else. My name is Isaac Saul. I am your host. And today we are going to be talking about the intelligence leak from the Pentagon, the Defense Department, some of what we learned from that leak and what it means for the United States more broadly. Before we jump in, though, as always, we'll start off with some quick hits. First up, Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg sued Representative Jim

Jordan, the Republican from Ohio, alleging that he was interfering in the investigation into Donald Trump. Bragg is seeking to block a congressional subpoena of a former prosecutor in his office. Number two, the consumer price index rose 5% in March from a year ago, down from 6% in February. On a monthly basis, inflation rose 0.1%. Number three, Representative Jennifer Wexton, a Democrat from Virginia, announced that she has Parkinson's disease. Number four, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reversed his decision to fire his defense minister, Yoav Galant, who was removed after objecting to Netanyahu's judicial reforms.

Number five, President Biden left this morning for Belfast, Northern Ireland, to commemorate the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement. The Department of Justice has a very serious and sensitive new investigation on its hands. The DOJ now looking into leaks of classified U.S. military documents that were shared on social media. Some of the materials were marked top secret. That's the highest level of classification. Dozens of pages of classified material are spreading online after being originally posted on a gaming platform. U.S. officials are investigating the origin of the leaks and the impact of information meant to be secret about the war in Ukraine, Russian forces,

and even U.S. spying on American allies. Tonight, those leaked documents causing tough conversations between Washington and U.S. allies. On Ukraine, a U.S. intelligence assessment that Ukraine's military will fall well short of retaking most of the territory it's lost to Russia. Last month, a trove of about 100 pages of classified documents began appearing on Discord, an app for group discussions. But in recent weeks, the same documents spread across Twitter, 4chan, and Telegram, raising awareness about their contents and what U.S. officials have now described as a massive and consequential intelligence leak. The documents, which appeared to have been hastily photographed, included Pentagon reports

that illustrate a far-reaching U.S. spying operation inside Russia and Ukraine. Some of the documents show daily, real-time warnings to American intelligence agencies on the timing of Moscow's strikes in Ukraine. Others contain updates on the beleaguered Russian military and reveal a Ukrainian army that is running lower on munitions than was previously reported. Notably, the documents report on Russian and Ukrainian casualties in the war. Though the estimates are made with low confidence, they broadly align with what has been reported in the press. One document reports the Russians have suffered 189,500 to 2,200,000 casualties, with 43,000 soldiers killed in action, while Ukraine has suffered 124,500 to 131,000 casualties,

with up to 17,500 killed in action. The source of the leaks remains unknown. However, U.S. officials fear that if the documents reveal sources and methods, it creates an opportunity for Russia to cut off critical sources of information. The documents appear to have been collected by the National Security Agency, the State Department, and the Central Intelligence Agency. Leaks of this kind can also damage U.S. relations with allies. Included in the documents was evidence of the U.S. intercepting South Korean communications, revealing that officials there were worried about providing military aid to Ukraine.

A CIA assessment also reports on deliberations of senior officials in Mossad, Israel's foreign spy agency, on whether to protest judicial reforms in the country. The military leader seemed supportive of protests against Netanyahu. There was also a document that detailed a scheme involving Egypt, one of our closest allies, supporting Russia with armaments. The FBI has launched an investigation into the leaks. Preliminary reports suggest the documents are accessible by hundreds or potentially thousands of U.S. officials with high-ranking security clearances. And the Pentagon has responded by locking down the distribution of sensitive briefing documents. Today, we're going to take a look at some reactions to the leak from the left and the right, and then my take. First up, we'll start with what the left is saying. Many on the left worry about the leak's impact on Ukraine and hope the Biden administration gets to the bottom of it quickly.

Some say the leak paints a frightening picture of the war. Others say it is a boon for Russian propaganda. In the Washington Post, David Ignatius called the leaks chilling. Were these documents disclosed by the Russians to expose Ukrainian weakness and shatter morale, as seems most likely to the analysts I contacted? Or were they actually disseminated by Ukraine, as some Russian bloggers appear to believe, in a plot to make the Kremlin think that Ukraine is weak and thereby disguise its true strengths in advance of a planned spring counteroffensive, he asked. Or perhaps they were leaked by a disgruntled American with a hidden motive. What matters most is that you know what's accurate and what is a manipulated reflection. Some basic themes are that Ukraine is facing a severe shortage of air defense weapons that

could cost it the war, that the West's arsenal of democracy isn't close to matching Ukraine's needs, and that there were desperate efforts to persuade South Korea and Israel to sell lethal weapons to Ukraine. It's also clear that the U.S. has been more risk-averse than some allies, including Britain and France, who sent crude electronic warfare planes over the Black Sea. In Vox, Jonathan Geyer said if the documents are authentic, they represent a major intelligence brief. It's still not at all clear who the source is, but the timing might imply someone who is trying to shape the U.S. and NATO response to an imminent Ukrainian counteroffensive. That could be meant to box in the Western response to push for unmitigated support,

or to embarrass the U.S., or to show the depth of U.S. assistance to Ukraine on the ground. Either way, it's likely to be favorable to Russian President Vladimir Putin in at least two regards, netting a positive win and showing valuable insights into how U.S. agencies work. While some have argued its origin is Russian intelligence, it's not clear why they would want to blow up such a goldmine of a source and publicize inside information. Moving forward, you can expect the Biden administration to ensure the leak is plugged, which probably means a tightening of access or even a blanket shutdown of certain intelligence sharing, perhaps to the detriment

of U.S. policymaking. The Washington Post editorial board said the most damaging part of the leak is that there was a leak at all. Granted, the material may have provided the Kremlin with some useful details, but there is little in the document dump that is likely to be a game-changer in the war itself, the board said. Maybe it's helpful to note estimates of the amounts of arms and munitions Ukraine has, but it is likely to be more valuable for Moscow to discover the range of U.S. intelligence capabilities that enabled the collection of such information and to garner hints about how Washington gathered it in the first place. Russia's already aware of low munitions and the need for air support

because Ukraine has been publicly beseeching the West to deliver both. In the Ukraine fight, Putin might plausibly regard his most potent weapon to be the conflict's most open secret, that the longer the battle drags on, the more pressure will build on Ukraine's allies to sue for peace on any terms, they wrote build on Ukraine's allies to sue for peace on any terms, they wrote. No leaks are likely to change that calculus. All right, that is it for what the left is saying, which brings us to what the right is saying. Many on the right criticize the Biden administration for the leak, saying they tell a different story in Ukraine. Some emphasized that the leak is a bad sign for U.S. intelligence.

Others criticized how the leaks are being condemned when similar leaks under Trump were viewed as patriotic. In National Review, Jim Garrity said the secret documents warn Ukraine's counteroffensive will likely stall. President Biden's rhetoric regarding Ukrainian resistance to the invasion increasingly appears to be wildly over-optimistic happy talk designed to assure Americans that he's managing the NATO coalition just fine, the military aid to Kiev is already arriving in a timely fashion, and Russia is really diplomatically and economically isolated, Garrity said. While Biden said the U.S. government has every confidence Ukraine will prevail, the documents reveal that this isn't true. This is bad, Garrity said. It is bad that this assessment leaked. It is bad that this assessment

of Ukraine's abilities in the spring offensive are so modest or grim. It is bad that apparently lots of foreign policy experts have doubts about the administration's approach but are afraid to say so publicly. And it is bad that Biden's public assessment of the war in Ukraine is the same rosy-eyed, unrealistic optimism that characterized his assessment of Afghanistan, inflation, migrants crossing the border, and the Chinese spy balloon. The president is always telling us things that are going great that we have nothing to worry about, and a little later, we learn that the truth is the opposite. In Fox News, Judith Miller said she sometimes favors leagues, but this one concerns her, and not for the reason most analysts now cite. Yes, the most recent unauthorized disclosure could potentially complicate Ukraine's impending

offensive against Russian forces. And yes, it could also make U.S. allies more hesitant to share sensitive information with Washington and complicate American diplomatic relations with them. But what it really shows is the over-classification of government materials continues while Washington is still unable to protect any truly sensitive national security information against such leaks. Allies are well aware that the U.S. spies on them and that Ukraine is planning a counteroffensive. The main risk is exposing the sources and methods that the U.S. has used to spy on Russia and others. It's not clear we'll ever find out who leaked the documents, but this much seems certain. As long as Washington continues massively classifying even mundane

information, and as long as the government agencies fail to protect material that can truly cause damage to national security, such leaks are likely to continue. Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is nearly

double the historic average of 52,000 cases. What can you do this flu season? Talk to your pharmacist or doctor about getting a flu shot. Consider FluCellVax Quad and help protect yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages 6 months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at FluCcellvax.ca. In the Washington Examiner, Byron York contrasted how these leaks are framed when viewed next to

those under Trump. The biggest takeaway is that the U.S. intelligence concluded in February that Ukraine's military effort is falling well short of its goals. Perhaps that is the point of the entire leak, to create pressure and momentum for a negotiated settlement. Intelligence officials have expressed deep anger about the leak, but not all leaks are viewed as serious security breaches. York cites three leaked conversations between foreign allies and the Trump administration which were praised as patriotic or positive. Those were the days when leaks all targeting Trump were good, York said. Now there are new leaks in the news. They are terribly serious. Like the Trump era leaks before

them, the person or persons responsible should be caught and punished. That would be unusual. Most of the time, no perpetrator is caught and no one is punished. But this time, the leaker will at least be roundly denounced, which is, as it should be, and a welcome change from recent years. Alright, that is it for the left and the right are saying, which brings us to my take. So, first of all, I love leaks. As a journalist, they are one of my favorite occurrences because they often give us an unfiltered look at events and allow us the opportunity to compare those events to how the government and media spun them. Sure, there are times when leaks are worrisome or there are repercussions that could be deleterious, but I'm always glad they happen. You don't have to

think Edward Snowden or Reality Winner are heroes to believe that we are a more informed populace because of what they did. The same is true for these leaks. Like Garrity, under what the right is saying, I think the most consequential element of these leaks is the less-than-rosy assessment of the Ukraine war. Our military thinks Ukraine is well short of where it needs to be to take back parts of Russian-occupied territory this spring, which, of course, is not what Biden has said publicly, a projection of strength and optimism about Ukraine's vitality, as the Washington Post put it. Critics of our involvement in Ukraine will view this as proof we are wasting money and prolonging a stalemate war, something else the documents said. Quote, enduring Ukrainian

deficiencies in training and munition supplies probably will strain progress and exasperate casualties during the offensive, end quote. Ukraine supporters will argue this is simply proof we should ramp up support and could have been more aggressive funding the war. Either way, it is a more honest piece of core intelligence than what the government has been giving us. There is also fresh evidence of special forces on the ground in Ukraine. There is also fresh evidence of special forces on the ground in Ukraine. According to the documents, the United Kingdom has the largest number of special forces in Ukraine, with 50, followed by Latvia with 17, France with 15, the United States with 14, and the Netherlands with 1. This largely matches speculation in the press, but was still eye-opening to see in an intelligence report. I found other parts of the intel more shocking, though perhaps less consequential in the grand scale of things. Egypt's purported consideration of selling

rockets to Russia is the most jaw-dropping to me. Egypt is one of our closest Middle East allies. It is supposed to be neutral. It even voted to condemn Russia at the United Nations, and it received $1.3 billion in military aid from us each year. But the documents allege Egypt's president, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, was ordering subordinates to produce and ship 40,000 rockets to Russia. And according to those same documents, to keep it a secret as to, quote, avoid problems with the West. I shouldn't have to flesh this out, but just in case, this would essentially amount to the United States supplying both sides of the same war, our billions and billions in defense for Ukraine, and then a military we also

help fund producing and sending weapons to Russia. Israel's spy agency Mossad also encouraging demonstrations against Netanyahu was eye-opening, in part because our spies have penetrated Israel's military, but also because it is representative of just how deep the discontent with Netanyahu really is. On the whole, the leaks paint a picture of a much more dire situation in Ukraine than we knew of, a top ally, Egypt, exploring an idea that would amount to a betrayal, and a top global leader, Netanyahu, facing high levels of discontent in his own military. Add to that Russia's intel agency's apparent courting of the United Arab Emirates and revelations about our spies inside South Korea, and I'd concur with those on the right and left that this was a revealing and explosive leak.

All right, that is it for my take, which brings us to your questions answered. This one is from Ted in Geneva, Switzerland. Ted said, I was wondering what your current thoughts are on the Taibbi Musk saga. Your take on the Hunter Biden laptop Twitter files pushed me to try to look at things from a different perspective. It was, however, one of the few times when I couldn't wrap my head around it. In light of the Mehdi Hassan Taibbi interview and the subsequent Musk-Taibbi fallout, do you still think the Twitter files are of vital importance? Do you still consider Taibbi a hero, considering his refusal to criticize Musk on his opposing free speech on his so-called free speech

platform? Okay, Ted, thank you for the question, and hello to Switzerland listeners, anybody out there. I think the latest revelations around Elon, Taibbi, and Twitter are all pretty disappointing, but I don't know how much it changes my view on the entire Twitterfiles story. First, a few clarifications. I don't think I ever called Taibbi a hero. I said he was a writing idol of mine, and he is. His career at Rolling Stone and elsewhere was prolific, and his success as an independent writer is admirable. Even Hassan spent the first minute of his interview with Taibbi praising his work. That being said, he has also been accused of and admitted to some very unsavory things, so maybe idle is a regrettable word, but I still admire his work as a reporter and I never really

viewed him as a hero. I don't think Taibbi has refused to criticize Musk either. In fact, he has been open in his criticism of Musk's decision to censor Substack links on Twitter, though he has avoided the subject of Twitter bending the knee to censorship in India. The Taibbi Hassan interview was great television and I'm glad it happened. Mehdi, who is as partisan as they come, is an excellent interviewer and he took Taibbi to task for some mistakes in his reporting that he conceded live on air. Those kinds of mistakes undermine Taibbi's credibility as a reporter, but they weren't the kinds of errors that fundamentally change much

of the story around the Twitter files, which I still think are a fascinating look into moderation and censorship decisions at a major social media platform. Most disappointing in all of this has been Musk himself. I cheered on his involvement at Twitter and was cautiously optimistic about his purchase of it, but the app is getting spammier, glitchier, and the content I see there seems worse every day. You're right, he has not been the free speech advocate he pledged to be, and he spends far too much time

using it to settle personal grudges and publicly lambast his own employees. So in that sense, it has been a very big letdown. All right, that is it for your questions answered, which brings us to today's Blindspot report. Quick reminder, we present the Blindspot report from our partners at Ground News, an app that tells you the bias of news coverage and what stories people on each side are missing. Last week, the left missed a story about swimming star Riley Gaines being ambushed and physically hit after giving a saving women's sports speech at San Francisco State University.

The right missed a story about Iowa's plan to pause its practice of paying for emergency contraception and abortion for victims of sexual assault. All right, that's our Blindspot report. Next up is our Under the Radar section. The Biden administration released a set of three proposals Tuesday for distributing water cuts to the Colorado River. One proposal would allocate cuts based on prior legal priority. Another would evenly distribute the cuts among Arizona, California, and Nevada. And a third proposal is to take no action. The proposal to distribute cuts among lower basin states would break precedent and force Californians to shoulder more of a load. The river is in the midst of a 23-year drought, and the states could not come to an agreement on cuts to address it. We covered this story in February. There's a link to that in today's episode description,

and you can read more about this proposal with an Axios link that is also in today's episode description. All right, next up is our numbers section. The number of Senate votes missed by Senator Dianne Feinstein, the Democrat from California, was 58. Feinstein is now under increased pressure to resign after a debilitating bout of shingles that she was diagnosed with in February. The year WNBA star Brittany Griner is expected to release a memoir about her 10-month detention in Russia is 2024. The estimated number of new cars sold in the U.S. that will be electric by 2032 is two-thirds according to a new EPA plan. The average price of a gallon of gasoline in the

U.S. on Tuesday was $3.61. The average price of a gallon of gasoline in June at its peak was $5.02. All right, that is it for our numbers section, which brings us to today's have a nice day story. Next time you are looking for a delicious Philly cheesesteak, you might consider going to Pakistan. Lahore, a Pakistan city, is now home to Philly Steak Sandwich, a small cafe that opened in 2021 and is starting to see its business boom. The sandwich comes with a special Pakistani twist, marinating the thin beef slices and spices before dropping it in the roll. Chef Mazhar Hussain said the sandwich is winning fans by merging the flavors of Philadelphia and Lahore.

Philly Mag has the story, and there's a link to it in today's episode description. All right, everybody, that is it for today's podcast. As always, if you want to support our work, please go to retangle.com and consider becoming a member. Keep an ear out tomorrow. It is the two-year anniversary of me quitting my job to go full-time at Tangle, and we've got a special edition coming your way. We'll see you then. Have a good one. Peace. Our podcast is written by me, Isaac Saul, and edited by Zosia Warpea. Our script is edited by Sean Brady, Ari Weitzman, and Bailey Saul.

Shout out to our interns, Audrey Moorhead and Watkins Kelly, and our social media manager, Magdalena Vakova, who created our podcast logo. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet75. For more from Tangle, check out our website at www.tangle.com. We'll see you next time. Witness to a crime? Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. The flu remains a serious disease.

Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is nearly double the historic average of 52,000 cases. What can you do this flu season? Talk to your pharmacist or doctor about getting a flu shot. Consider FluSylVax Quad and help protect yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages six months and older, and it may be available

for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at FluCellVax.ca.