Tangle - A potential breakthrough in Gaza.

Episode Date: August 3, 2026

On Thursday, President Donald Trump said that the Board of Peace, a U.S.-led international body aiming to achieve peace in the Gaza Strip, had reached an agreement for Hamas and other armed groups in Gaza to disarm. The next day, the board shared a 15-point “roadmap” for a multi-step peace plan, outlining actions that Hamas and Israel would take to eventually transfer control of the strip to the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG). Hamas officials said the group’s disarmament was contingent on Israel withdrawing from Gaza, while Israeli officials have expressed skepticism about Hamas’s commitment to disarming.Ad-free podcasts are here!Get 20% off your first year of ad-free episodes, exclusive interviews, and deep dives with Tangle’s podcast membership!Following up on wildfires.Two weeks ago, Managing Editor Ari Weitzman wrote a take on the Canadian wildfires, arguing that climate change was the lead driver of the increased fires but that Canada could still do more to mitigate them. Some Tangle readers pushed back on both claims, so Ari put their questions to climate scientist (and author of the newsletter The Climate Brink) Zeke Haufather. Zeke weighed in on the science and the policy, as well as the role data centers will play in climate change in the coming years. You can listen here.You can read today's podcast⁠ ⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠ and today’s “Under the radar” story ⁠here⁠ and today’s “Have a nice day” story ⁠here⁠.You can subscribe to Tangle by clicking here or drop something in our tip jar by clicking here. Take the survey: Could this plan be a breakthrough for peace? Let us know.Our Executive Editor and Founder is Isaac Saul. Our Executive Producer is Jon Lall.This podcast written by: Isaac Saul and audio engineered and edited by Dewey Thomas. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75.Our newsletter is edited by Managing Editor Ari Weitzman, Senior Editor Will Kaback, Bailey Saul, Audrey Moorehead, and Carina Pacheco. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

From executive producer Isaac Saul, this is Tangle. Good morning, good afternoon and good evening, and welcome to the Tangle podcast, the place you get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking, and a little bit of my take. I'm your host, Isaac Saul, and I just, I blinked, and we're in August now. I think this has to be the fastest summer on record. I really can't believe that we're here. I say this every summer.

I feel like everybody says it every summer and then it happens. And yeah, it's flying by. So happy August. It is Monday, August 3rd. Today we are jumping into a story that is a bit of a time capsule itself. We're going to go back to the war in Gaza and the Board of Peace announcing that it has reached an agreement for Hamas to disarm. That happened on Thursday. And then we had some updates over the weekend, which we're going to talk.

about in a little bit. We're going to break down exactly what happened, share some views from the left and the right here in the U.S., as well as some perspectives from some writers in the Middle East, and then I'm going to give you my take. Also, we have a reader question today about the investigation into Gavin Newsom and an under-the-radar story about President Trump's boat strikes and the efficacy of those strikes. It's a good episode. Before we jump in, though, I do want to give you a quick heads up that we are doing a follow-up on the wildfire stories. A couple weeks ago, managing editor Ari Weitzman wrote a take on the Canadian wildfires. He argued that climate change was the lead driver of the increased fires, but that Canada could still do more to mitigate them.

Some Tangle readers pushed back on both claims. So Ari put their questions to a climate scientist and author of the newsletter, The Climate Brink, Zeke Hawfather. Zeke weighed in on the the science and the policy, as well as the role data centers will play in climate change in the coming years. That episode should be up in our podcast feed by the time you're hearing this. It's also up on our YouTube channel, Tangle News on YouTube, which I encourage you to check out and subscribe. All right, with that, I'm going to hand it over to John and I'll be back for my take. Thanks, Isaac, and welcome, everybody. Hope y'all had a wonderful weekend. We've got a lot to get into, so let's get started with today's quick hits. First up, President Donald Trump said he

postponed a major attack on Iran after several Gulf nations requested he allow more time for peace discussions. Number two, Representative Max Miller, the Republican from Ohio, denied allegations that he abused his ex-wife, Emily Moreno, and their daughter, saying that he will not drop out of his reelection bid. Senator Bernie Moreno, the Republican from Ohio, Emily's father, said in a statement that Miller is a danger to his daughter and is not fit to serve in the house. Number three, acting Attorney General Todd Blanche formally rescinded a planned anti-weaponization fund and narrowed the Trump family's immunity from Internal Revenue Service audits, potentially allowing for his confirmation as Attorney General.

Number four, a gunman killed three people and wounded seven others in a shooting at an In-N-Out restaurant in Twin Falls, Idaho. The gunmen later killed himself. Authorities are investigating a potential motive. And number five, Trump Media and Technology Group launched a paid service that provides a support, with faster access to post on truth social by President Trump and other top accounts. Democratic lawmakers have called on the Securities and Exchange Commission to investigate whether the service is legal. President Trump is touting a major breakthrough in the Israel-Hamas war.

Last night, he announced the two sides had agreed to a ceasefire, which would include the total disarmament of Hamas in Gaza and the full withdrawal of Israeli troops from the enclave. But there are questions as to how this will actually. unfolds. On Thursday, President Donald Trump said that the Board of Peace, a U.S.-led international body aiming to achieve peace in the Gaza Strip, had reached an agreement for Hamas and other armed groups in Gaza to disarm. The next day, the board shared a 15-point roadmap for a multi-step peace plan, outlining actions that Hamas and Israel would take to eventually transfer control of the strip to the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza. Hamas officials said the group's disarmament

was contingent on Israel withdrawing from Gaza, while Israeli officials have expressed skepticism about Hamas' commitment to disarming. In January, President Trump established the Board of Peace to oversee Gaza's reconstruction and post-war governance, as well as support peace globally. The board is backed by a United Nations mandate and is composed of over 20 member states, though several U.S. allies in Europe have opted not to join. The 15-point plan requires Israel to cease military operations in Gaza, while Hamas cedes control of civilian governance and security functions to the NCAA, which the Board of Peace oversees. Eventually, under the plan, Hamas will disarm completely, and Israel will begin a structured military withdrawal from the strip.

Hamas official Basim name confirmed that the group had agreed to the plan, but said the ball is now in the enemy's court to fulfill its obligations according to the agreement, as well as for the mediators and guarantors to compel it to its duties. Another Hamas official Ghazi Hamad added, we will not take any steps regarding disarmament before Israel withdraws from the Gaza Strip, a demand that appears to break from the Board of Peace's plan. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not commented on the plan, but a spokesperson for the prime minister said that Hamas must disarm before Israel considers a military withdrawal. Our assessment is that if we redeploy before Hamas is truly disarmed, it will quickly expand its presence throughout Gaza, rebuild its terrorist

infrastructure, once again threaten Israeli communities, and seek to carry out another October 7th-style attack, the spokesperson said. On Sunday, Israel carried out air strikes in Gaza for a second consecutive day, reportedly killing 26 people over the weekend. In response, Hamas accused the Israeli government of attempting to derail the peace plan. This escalation, coinciding with progress on the political track, clearly demonstrates that the occupation government is seeking to undermine efforts aimed at ending the war and to impose facts on the ground by force, Names said. Today, we'll share perspectives on these developments from the right, left, and writers in the East, and then Isaac's take.

We'll be right back after this quick break. All right. First up, let's start with what the right is saying. The right is skeptical of the peace plan, with many suggesting Hamas is unlikely to abide by the terms. Others say the plan remains aspirational at best. The New York Post editorial board offered a few questions about the new hopeful Gaza peace plan. Fine, Hamas said it's agreed to lay down its arms as per the 15-point plan from President Donald Trump's Board of Peace. but color us skeptical.

We absolutely hope it proves to be a genuine step toward bringing permanent peace to Gaza. But before we deem it a historical agreement as the press announced, we need some questions answered, the board wrote. For starters, who decides that Israel and Hamas and its allied terror groups have ceased all military operations? We guarantee that some terrorists will keep shooting at Israel forces. More generally, what parts of the Hamas-controlled government will transfer over to the new one under the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza.

And again, who does the vetting of these civil servants selected by various gangs of terrorists? The board asked. Hamas hasn't surrendered, renounced its commitments to armed resistance and Israel's destruction. The new 15-point plan doesn't seem to come with actual mechanisms that can change any of that. The only force in the region able to make the terrorists do anything

remains the IDF. In National Review, Noah Rothman wrote about the Gaza peace deal that isn't. somewhat inauspiciously, the Board of Peace revealed on Friday its roadmap for peace in the Middle East. Perhaps its authors were unaware of the context and provenance of that turn of phrase. Even more disconcertingly, the board described the terms that have supposedly been agreed to as mere principles, Rothman said. The deal outlines the financial rewards for Gaza that will follow the implementation of this agreement over the next three years, but there will be no progress unless Israel goes first. Hamas's sources contend that the terrorist organization will not surrender any of its weapons until Israel ceases defensive operations in Gaza and withdraws to the yellow line in the strip, Rothman wrote.

Point two of this deal notes that a variety of non-state observers must certify that all parties to this agreement will have met their commitments under the roadmap before proceeding to the implementation of Phase 2. That may be the most important line in this document. More often than not, phase 2 never comes. All right, that is it for what the right is saying, which brings us to what the left is saying. Many on the left suggest the Israeli government is hindering the peace process. Others say Trump's Board of Peace has been a failure. The Lamonde editorial board said, Any Progress in Gaza depends entirely on Israeli authorities.

On July 30th, U.S. President Donald Trump announced what could be a major breakthrough in Gaza, Hamas's acceptance of disarmament. On August 2nd, health authorities in the enclave reported that 18 people had died, in the preceding hours due to Israeli airstrikes, while a minister from the coalition led by Benjamin Netanyahu declared that Israeli's objective was to take control of the entire Gaza Strip, the board wrote. This tragic contradiction between rhetoric and reality reflects the immense difficulty

of restoring even a semblance of normalcy to Gaza, where more than two million people continue to survive in extremely precarious conditions amid ruins, garbage, and rats. Trump's announcement underscored a sense of understandable impatience, Since the ceasefire agreement that ended the war more than nine months ago, over 1,200 Palestinians have died in Israeli strikes. Meanwhile, the Israeli army has tightened its grip, the board said. At no point has the team of Palestinian technocrats selected to manage Gaza's day-to-day administration

been authorized by Israel to enter the territory. The plan to deploy an international force to keep order and to prevent the return of armed groups has also failed to materialize. Nothing has moved forward. In the New Arab, Olivia Hooper argued Trump's Board of Peace for Gaza has delivered anything but. Despite Hamas' recent disarmament agreement and compliance with the peace plan, Israel continues to violate the terms, showing no signs of military withdrawal and signaling that illegal Jewish settlements will soon reach Gaza, Hooper said. Donald Trump's promise of lasting peace is lying in tatters. Just months after its launch, his peaceboard and initiative have withered into a delayed, small-scale pilot project near Rothsched.

When peace is authored by arms brokers, funded by foreign oligarchs, and overseen by an occupying power, it cannot deliver justice, Hooper wrote. What is meant by building a better Gaza is not clear, nor is the role that Palestinians will be allowed to play in this alleged recovery effort. Considering that not a single Palestinian is on the founding or executive board, the future involving Palestinians seems bleak. All right, that is if we're what the right and the left are saying, which brings us to what writers in the Middle East are saying. Some writers in the Middle East say that the group's openness to disarmament signals a new dynamic in the conflict. Others argue Hamas' disarmament must come first in any peace process. In Arab news, Tarek Ali Ahmad asked,

does Hamas's declaration change the equation in Gaza? For nearly four decades, Hamas has presented itself as an armed resistance movement whose military wing is inseparable from its political identity. This is why its recent declaration expressing a willingness to discuss disarmament as part of a broader political settlement has attracted global attention, Amman said. Although the proposal is heavily qualified and contingent on Israeli withdrawal, a permanent ceasefire and the establishment of a Palestinian state, it is the first time since the current war began that Hamas has publicly entertained the prospect of giving up the military capability that has

defined it for decades. Whether the statement represents a genuine strategic shift or simply another negotiating position remains fiercely debated, but it has nevertheless injected a new variable into a conflict that, until now, has largely revolved around military operations, hostage negotiations, and humanitarian access, Amad wrote. Even previous ceasefire negotiations brokered by Egypt, Qatar, and the U.S., focused largely on temporary truces, prisoner exchanges, and humanitarian arrangements. The future of Hamas's weapons was generally considered a red line that appears to be changing, at least in theory.

The Jerusalem Post-Editorial Board wrote, Hamas disarmament cannot wait for the IDF's withdrawal from Gaza. Hamas has spent the period since October 7th using every negotiation to gain time, preserve control, and push the most difficult questions into the next phase. Deals have produced real achievements, above all, the return of hostages, and that matters. But Hamas' military power has remained largely untouched by diplomacy, the board said. The negotiations showed the same risk, with Hamas already presenting its obligations as conditional on Israeli steps that would come first in practice.

It has repeatedly rejected disarmament, qualified it, or offered formulations that leave its weapons under a different name or authority. The latest proposal may be more serious, but it still depends on sequencing. If Hamas is allowed to remain armed while a new Palestinian committee enters Gaza, while international bodies begin work, and while Israeli forces pull back, the result may be a civilian structure operating under the same threat that has shaped Gaza for years, the board wrote. The United States should be careful not to mistake a framework for implementation. Titles, ceremonies, international boards, and public declarations may help move negotiations forward,

but they do not move a single rocket, destroy a single tunnel, or prevent Hamas from rebuilding. All right, let's head over to Isaac for his take. All right, that is it for it with the left and the right and some writers from the Middle East are saying, which brings us to my take. In December of 2023, as I called for Israel to show, show some restraint in response to October 7th. I wrote that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu only seemed open to more killing the expulsion of Gazans, expanding settlements in the West Bank, and reoccupying Gaza with Israeli forces when the war ended.

I remember the blowback from that sentence and those claims specifically. How many Israelis or fellow Zionists and Jews wrote in to tell me that I was penning blood liable or how biased I was against Israel, a country I was. loved. I also remember how many people told me I was naive to believe the count of the dead and injured being shared by the Gaza Health Ministry, despite many of its numbers being confirmed by outside groups. Yet, nearly three years later, the reality on the ground is hard to dispute. The Gaza Health Ministry's death toll, over 70,000, is now officially accepted by Israeli authorities. The Israeli military has expanded its physical control to cover roughly 60 to 70% of the Gaza Strip,

Israeli settlers have continued to expand in the West Bank, where violence is the worst it has been in years, all while Israel's security cabinet has approved measures to make it easier for Israelis to acquire Palestinian property. Despite the purported ceasefire, over 1,200 Palestinians have been killed since the ceasefire was signed on October 25th, including a couple and their nine-year-old son just this past weekend. It has also been more than two years since I wrote the Zionist case for a ceasefire, a peace where I argued for a stop in the war as someone who believes in the right of the Jewish people to self-determination and statehood. With each passing month, my hope for peace in the region has diminished more and more. In February, Israel threw itself into the Iran war with vigor, sensing a moment to topple

a longtime threat to its security, but destabilizing the entire region in the process. It is now fighting fronts in Iran, Lebanon, and Gaza. Simultaneously, global support for Israel has plummeted, and the American public is turning further away from its longtime ally with each passing day. For reasons related and unrelated, it's a precarious time to be a Jew. And whether you are an Israeli Jew, Zionists, or all three, it's a more dangerous time to say so than it has been for decades. I feared all these things when I wrote my piece two years ago and all have come to fruition. Meanwhile, it's impossible to describe the living hell that is Gaza.

Roughly 1.7 million displaced people are taking shelter across thousands of makeshift sites and camps. Piles of destroyed buildings dominate the landscape. Sanitation issues are ubiquitous, and access to clean drinking water is scarce. Dozens of hospitals, which Israel identified as military targets, housing Hamas fighters during the war, are destroyed or only partially functional. That means finding treatment for chronic illness or acute injuries from ongoing Israeli strikes can be difficult, if not impossible. work is scarce. Children under five and pregnant women are facing severe malnutrition. Writing these words gives you an idea, but as journalists have regained access to the strip, the only real way to grapple with it is to see it, to watch the videos and look at the photographs.

My worst fears from October 8th have long come true, and I'm devastated that the situation has still not really improved even amid a purported ceasefire. So, after news of Hamas agreeing to disarm broke, I read details of the plan with lots of skepticism. It feels like more of the same promises and plans we've heard a million times before, and any time I allowed myself to feel hopeful, those hopes were quickly dashed by broken promises and more violence. As I said in our 2025 review, the peace deal has not actually produced peace for Gazans and has only marginally improved the safety of Israelis. Any hope I could have had for this deal didn't even last the weekend. On Saturday, two days after Trump's announcement, Israel carried out new air strikes in Gaza.

After a second day of strikes on Sunday, Palestinian authorities reported that 18 people had been killed. So how could any person realistically believe in progress against that kind of backdrop? The U.S. says Hamas is agreeing to disarm. Hamas says it will do so when Israel withdraws from Gaza. Israel says it won't withdraw until it sees proof of disarmament. Meanwhile, Israel continues shelling Gaza, leading Hamas, to say Israel is violating peace terms and ensuring no such peace plan will ever be delivered. It actually reminds me a lot of what is happening in Iran, which Trump is still accusing

of violating ceasefire terms and where he is still proclaiming now, in August 2026, that we are pausing our strikes to allow for the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, months after his administration claim the war was over. Still, with the announcement of Hamas disarming, the appeal of hope is hard to resist. Could Hamas really give up its weapons? Could Israel really withdraw? Could Gaza really be rebuilt? Could we take a baby step forward to two independent self-determined states living side by side? It's hard to imagine, and we only have tea leaves to read, but what we can see shows nothing more than the same no, you first attitude from two sides deeply distrustful of one another. Hamas has now said Israel must meet the terms of the ceasefire deal and stop its attacks in Gaza for them to disarm.

Israel believes any pause in fighting will allow Hamas to rearm and regroup. One former Fata official said in a Facebook post that Jared Kushner had told him he was trying to get Israel to stop its attacks on Gaza. Let's just say, I'm skeptical. Netanyahu is facing an election in October. and he is both unpopular and highly motivated to hold on to power. Having an enemy to fight has been good for his re-election campaign, but he now faces an incredible challenge to build the coalition he needs to survive. Any peace deal that does not end with Israel taking over the Gaza Strip

and expelling Palestinians is going to infuriate the Israeli far right. Meanwhile, he's alienating moderates by continuing to block an independent investigation into how October 7th happened and has angered more second. Israelis by not forcing the Orthodox Jews in Israel to enlist while the army struggles to meet its enrollment needs. Is this the kind of leader looking to strike a deal and bring peace to the region? Have we seen even an inkling of evidence that's where Netanyahu's focus is? When I went looking for my past writing on the Israel-Gaza war this morning, it shocked me to realize we had not covered the war since January of this year more than six months ago. In 23,

20204 and 2025, it was one of our most covered stories, consistently getting attention from our editorial team. But after the war broke out in Iran and with so many stories popping up domestically, it's fallen into the background. Looking back on that January piece, though, I had some optimism. I conceded that it would probably be dashed, but I insisted, again, that the 2025 peace deal the Trump administration had constructed was actually reasonable, that it gave both the Palestinians and the Israelis the right carrots and sticks. I didn't expect things to stay on track, yet despite the escalating land grabs in the West Bank

and the documented violations of the ceasefire by Israel, the peace plan held. Hamas returned all of the hostages, alive and dead, marking the first time since 2014 that Hamas held no Israeli captives. At the same time, 100% of Gazen's basic food needs were being met for the first time since the war started in 2023,

and only four Israeli soldiers had been killed, between October and December, a sign the fighting was really winding down. In July, we got news that the Gaza Strip's humanitarian situation had remained stable throughout the ceasefire. I want to hold on to that optimism, even as I know it's misplaced. So, maybe, just maybe, there's a pass. Maybe Hamas really does feel boxed in and will put its weapons down. Maybe the Israeli troops really will withdraw from Gaza and allow reconstruction to begin. Maybe an international coalition of actors can somehow manifest. the political body that the Palestinian people will trust. Maybe after October 7th and 70,000 dead

in the Gaza war, Israelis and Palestinians find some way to inch toward generational healing. Maybe. But for now, my skepticism and sadness remain. We'll be right back after this quick break. All right, that is it for my take, which brings us to your questions answered. This one's from an anonymous listener. They wrote in and said the Los Angeles Times and Gavin Newsom claimed Trump is going after Newsom's wife for political reasons. Republicans say this is nonsense that the investigation began with a whistleblower complaint out of California during the Biden administration. Who is telling the truth? Okay, so to catch up just on the basic story here, in mid-June, California Governor Gavin Newsom announced that the Justice Department had launched an investigation into him and his wife,

Jennifer Siebel Newsom. In a video, statement, Newsom claimed the DOJ had been politicized and was leading a partisan investigation. However, the timeline of the probe appeared unclear, and many commentators claim that it started under President Joe Biden. So which is it? A Trump administration vendetta or the continuation of a Biden-era investigation? It could actually be both. The DOJ has conducted at least two investigations, not into Newsom himself, but different people in the governor's orbit. In 2022, the DOJ began an investigation into Newsom's former chief of staff, Dana Williamson, under the Biden administration. But in May of 26, Williamson pleaded guilty to fraud charges related to a conspiracy

to steal campaign money from former Health and Human Services Secretary Javier Bacero's past campaign for California Attorney General. Another probe, the one Newsom appears to be referencing in the video statement, appears to be investigating his wife's tax returns. That case reportedly began in the U.S. Attorney's Office in Sacramento in 2025, following a whistleblower report. Despite Newsom's statements, some accounts maintain that senior political leaders were not involved in the decision to begin the investigation. So, the investigation in the Siebel Newsom may have a legitimate basis. On the other hand, the Trump administration has pursued investigations into the president's political enemies for seemingly political reasons. With these two factors pulling against each other,

we're all better off waiting until more details of the case come out. All right, that is it for your questions answered. I'm going to send it back to John for the rest of the podcast, and I'll see you guys tomorrow. Have a good one. Peace. Thanks, Isaac. Here's your under-the-radar story for today, folks.

Last week, the Washington Post reported that an internal Drug Enforcement Administration Assessment found that the Trump administration strikes on boats, allegedly trafficking cocaine, have not impacted the supply or price of the drug in the United States. The assessment noted that traffickers have changed tactics in response to the strikes, altering routes and using different kinds of boats, but we're still successfully transporting narcotics. The Pentagon maintains that the strikes have been effective.

Transnational criminal organizations have continually adapted their tactics for decades, Chief Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell said. It demonstrates that we are imposing systemic friction on their operations. The Washington Post has this story, and you can check it out with a link in today's episode description. And last but not least, our Have a Nice Day story. You may love dogs, but do you love dogs as much as Nehemia Turner? The 11-year-old from Jacksonville, Florida, made history last week when he became the first child to log 100 volunteer hours at the Jacksonville Humane Society, where he reads books allowed to shelter pups as part of the shelter's positivity reading program. Turner said he likes to help keep the dogs comfortable as they wait to get adopted.

Jacksonville Humane Society CEO Lawrence Nicholas added, Turner has a lot of the children. has not only helped homeless pets, but also inspired those around him to see the difference one person can make. ABC News has this story, and you can check it out with the link in today's episode description. All right, everybody, that is it for today's episode. As always, if you'd like to support our work, please go to reetangle.com, where you can sign up for a newsletter membership, podcast membership, or a bundled membership that gets you a discount on both.

We'll be right back here tomorrow. For Isaac and the rest of the crew, this is John Law, signing off. Have a great day, y'all. Peace. Our executive editor and founder is me, Isaac Saul, and our executive producer is John Wall. Today's episode was edited and engineered by Dewey Thomas. Our editorial staff is led by managing editor Ari Weitzman with senior editor Will Kayback and associate editors Audrey Moorhead and Bailey Saul.

Music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75. To learn more about Tangle and to sign up for a membership, please visit our website at retangle.com.