Tangle - A potential new front in the Iran war.

Episode Date: September 21, 2026

As the war in Iran nears its seventh month, new developments over the past week have prompted concerns about a widening conflict in the Middle East. On Saturday, the State Department warned Americans in the Middle East to “exercise heightened vigilance” and prepare for potential travel disruptions, and President Donald Trump returned from a weekend trip to Camp David a day early. Separately, Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have launched significant attacks against Saudi Arabia and seized key Red Sea territory. Ad-free podcasts are here!Get 20% off your first year of ad-free episodes, exclusive interviews, and deep dives with Tangle’s podcast membership!The DSA debate.On Friday, Ross Barkan authored a guest column making the case for the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA). The piece has generated over 500 comments and a robust debate over Barkan’s arguments and the DSA’s merit. Check out the piece and join the conversation here.You can read today's podcast⁠ ⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠ and today’s “Have a nice day” story ⁠here⁠.You can subscribe to Tangle by clicking here or drop something in our tip jar by clicking here. Take the survey: How long do you think the war will last? Let us know.Our Executive Editor and Founder is Isaac Saul. Our Executive Producer is Jon Lall.This podcast written by: Will Kaback and audio engineered and edited by Dewey Thomas. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75.Our newsletter is edited by Managing Editor Ari Weitzman, Senior Editor Will Kaback, Bailey Saul, Audrey Moorehead, and Carina Pacheco. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

From executive producer Isaac Saul, this is Tangle. Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening. And welcome to the Tangle podcast, a place where you get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking, and a little bit of our take. I am your host today, Senior Editor Will Kayback. Sometimes we get a brief reprieve from the news cycle over the weekend. And then there are the 48-hour periods like the ones we've just had, where it feels like every major story of the week was packed into Saturday and Sunday.

So we've got a lot to get into not just today, but this whole week. Seems like we're setting up for a pretty consequential few days here in the U.S. and abroad. And we're going to be starting off with the major developments in the Middle East from Friday on, specifically the escalating attacks by the Houthi rebel, in Yemen that threatened to open a new front in the Iran War. We're also tackling a reader question about felon's voting rights, and then we'll wrap things up with an inspiring story of two men's mission to honor the victims of 9-11.

First up, just in case you missed it, on Friday, we published a guest column from the writer Ross Barkin, who made the case for the Democratic Socialists of America or the DSA. The piece has generated over 500 comments on the Tangle website, as well as countless more email responses, responses on social media, responses on our Reddit page, subtext, etc. And we've seen a really robust debate over Barkin's arguments and the broader merit of the DSA in a moment when its popularity is really coming into focus. So if you haven't checked that piece out yet, either on the website, in the newsletter or the podcast version,

And we recommend you do that and then join the conversation on the Tangle website, readtangle.com. All right, now I'm going to pass it over to Audrey to get us into today's topic. And I'll be back in a bit to read my take. Thanks, Will. First up, we have today's quick hits. Number one, President Donald Trump announced that he is barring CNN, MS now, and political journalists from the White House, claiming that they're reporting about his administration has been inaccurate. The outlets announced they will sue to challenge the ban.

Number two, President Trump announced a security agreement with Greenland and Denmark that he said gives the United States permanent control over security and all other needs in Greenland and bars any U.S. adversary from establishing a base on the island without U.S. approval. Number three, Ukraine launched a large-scale drone attack on Moscow on the final day of Russia's parliamentary election. Russian officials said the strikes killed at least four people. Number four. President Trump posted on Truth Social that his plan triumphal arch in Washington, D.C. will also serve as a military complex

housing drones and sniper positions. Number five. A Venezuelan National was shot during an encounter with immigration and customs enforcement officers in Austin, Texas, and he is currently hospitalized in stable condition. ICE said the man has a final order of removal and that he attempted to flee when stopped by officers. Tonight, fresh threats of retaliation

from Tehran against the U.S. and its allies in the Middle East, amid swirling speculation that President Trump may restart U.S. attacks on Iran. Iran's military saying in a statement that if the U.S. attacks, all U.S. bases and interests in the region will be targeted. Speaking to Fox News today, the president said very big things will happen in the not-so-distant future, but that he was in deciding mode on Iran and whether to blow the entire nation up. As the war in Iran nears its seventh month, new developments over the first.

past week have prompted concerns about a widening conflict in the Middle East. On Saturday, the State Department issued an alert advising Americans in the Middle East to exercise heightened vigilance and prepare for potential travel disruptions, and President Donald Trump returned from a weekend trip to Camp David a day early. Separately, Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have launched significant attacks against Saudi Arabia and seized key Red Sea territory. For more context, the current Houthi-Saudi-Arabia conflict dates to the start of the Yemeni Civil War in 2014.

Saudi Arabia backs Yemen's internationally recognized Sunni Muslim government, while the Shiite Muslim Houthly rebels have sought to overthrow that government. A 2022 ceasefire de-escalated the fighting, but Houthi attacks against ships in the Red Sea throughout the war in Gaza have reignited hostilities. Beginning on Tuesday, September 8th, the Houthis launched an offensive, capturing Yemeni territory on and around the Red Sea, including the port city of Maka and Perim Island, threatening to disrupt transportation through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The Red Sea's importance for shipping has increased amid the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, making the attacks potentially disruptive

for the global economy. The rebel group has also directly attacked Saudi Arabia. On Saturday, the kingdom confirmed that the Houthis fired a ballistic missile at the capital Riyadh, and targeted civilian infrastructure in the port city of Yonbu. The Saudis also accused the Houthis of attempting to attack the Holy City of Mecca, which they called a red line. The Houthis denied these accusations. President Trump is reportedly weighing heightened attacks against Iran. On Sunday, Fox News's Trey Yinks said that the president told him, very big things are going to be happening in the not-so-distant future, and my question is, if and when do I blow the entire nation up? Later on Sunday, Trump reportedly decided that the United States will not enter the Saudi-Houthi conflict at this time. Separately,

new reports have shed light on the Iran war's potential cost to the United States. On Tuesday, CBS news published photos that appear to show significant damage to U.S. military bases and assets across the Middle East, including destroyed aircraft, vehicles, and buildings. On Friday, the Washington Post reported that the Pentagon is aware of at least 22 U.S. military fatalities linked to the Iran war, for more than the Defense Department has publicly acknowledged. Defense Secretary Pete Hegsef strongly denied any deaths were being covered up. Today, you'll hear views from the left, right, and writers in the Middle East about the latest in the region. Then I'll pass it back to senior editor Will Keeback for his take. We'll be right back after this quick break. First up, what the left is saying. Some on the left

suggest the Houthi attacks could rapidly expand the scale of the Iran war. Others say Trump has no plan to manage the conflict. In Bloomberg, Mark Champion wrote, Trump's little war with Iran just got a lot bigger. It is an unintended feature of President Donald Trump's plan B for defeating Iran, economic strangulation, that the more successful the policy becomes, the more risk the men who run the Islamic Republic are willing to accept to fight it. It's clear that Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is capable of escalating the conflict in ways it previously avoided. One gun that long sat over the conflict's Czechavian fireplace was the potential for Tehran to get its Houthi allies in Yemen to block the Bab al-Mandeb straight.

The Houthis have now taken that gun off the wall. The group's territorial gains, if consolidated, could prove enough to give the Houthis the kind of permanent control over the strait that the Iranians are now demanding over Hormuz. These developments were unimaginable before the U.S. and Israel went to war against Iran in search of regime change. But as Gregory Johnson, a non-resident fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute said in a web briefing last week, Iran's example in Hormuz has given the Houthis a new direction in their efforts to secure revenue and leverage.

The Philadelphia Inquirer editorial boards said, President Trump's new strategy on the Iran war is pretending there isn't one. The war has had tremendous repercussions for U.S. service members and civilians in the Middle East, American security and credibility and global trade and stability. The only aspect of the conflict that is not serious

is Trump's handling of it. Despite the administration's best efforts to obfuscate the human cost of the conflict, the war has killed 18 American service members and wounded nearly 800, taken thousands of lives in Iran and the Middle East, injured tens of thousands across the region, and displaced hundreds of thousands.

And the fighting has likely cost American taxpayers more than $100 billion in direct spending. The war has also depleted the military supplies of critical munitions, leaving us more vulnerable to adversaries and strained our forces with marathon deployments and logistical disruptions. The trouble is that Trump and his lieutenants don't appear to have a strategy for waging war on or making peace with Iran.

What they have instead is a plan to manage the public relations fall out of the conflict by lying about its casualties, costs, and extent in the hope voters won't punish their party for it in midterm elections. Now what the right is saying. Some on the right say the U.S. must back the Saudis fight against the Houthis. Others suggest Trump can use the Houthi crisis to secure foreign policy wins. In the New York Post, Bridget Toomey argued, Houthi attacks expose Iran's desperation.

Tehran saw its leverage slipping away and expanded the battlefield to attack the United States and its allies from a different angle. That's the takeaway from this week's fighting in Yemen. Without revenue from its oil sales, an Iranian financial crisis is imminent. So the regime, through its terror proxies, seeks to open a new front in the energy war. So far it has exceeded. By holding the territory along the Red Sea's narrow entrance and the island inside it, the Houthis can effectively control transits through the key waterway. The United States must commit to supporting Saudi Arabia and driving the Houthis back from their strategic positions on the Red Sea coast. The Treasury Department can target the Houthi's financial lifelines by

sanctioning exchange houses, financial institutions, and front companies, particularly in Oman. And Washington needs to seriously consider increasing its operational support of Riyadh, including potential U.S. air strikes in the effort to free southern Yemen from this terrorist group. It makes little sense to continue striking Iran while granting immunity to one of its key proxies. The Wall Street Journal editorial board wrote about the Saudis, the Houthis, and Israel. Is the Houthi crisis a diplomatic opportunity? Saudi Arabia has come running to Washington and even to Israel in its hour of need. Meanwhile, Riyadh's feud with the United Arab Emirates continues to backfire.

With all of these moving pieces, there may be a checkmate for Mr. Trump to find. The Houthi blockade on Saudi oil has already become the impetus for the kind of Saudi-Israeli Emirati cooperation that only U.S. Central Command can convene. That's the regional alliance needed to counter Iran and enthut the proxy militia. Congress can persuade the president to use the nuclear deal as a bargaining chip. The Saudis have been making a lot of requests after they denied the U.S. use of its airspace at a crucial moment, derailing operation freedom to guide ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Let the Saudis give up the deal's domestic enrichment plank. Or Riyadh can join the Abraham Accords, as Mr. Trump says, and cement the U.S. Regional Alliance.

Finally, what writers in the Middle East are saying. Some writers say Trump's handling of the latest developments could undermine the U.S. Saudi relationship. Others argue the Saudi's regional alliances now face a key test. In Al Jazeera, Suleiman Al-Aqili asked, has Trump abandoned Bab al-Mand-Dab to the Houthis? What is happening at Bab al-Mand-Dab is not an isolated event, but the latest in a long series of U.S. retreats from security commitments

that for decades underpinned the security for oil relationship between Washington and the Gulf states. This is not a passing political position, but a profound shift in the regional security landscape. The United States is choosing not to intervene militarily against an armed groups designated as terrorists that controls one of the world's most important straits and whose actions go beyond the logic of conventional deterrence. Since the 1970s, the U.S. Gulf relationship has rested on a clear, but implicit bargain. The United States provides a security umbrella protecting the Gulf States and energy routes, while the Gulf states ensure a steady flow of oil to the global

economy at reasonable prices. Today, there are mounting signs that this formula is beginning to collapse. Trump's refusal to defend Bab al-Mandeb and his response to the Houthi's request that the U.S. stay out of the conflict and return for allowing American ships to pass through, effectively a political deal, marks a watershed. For the first time, the United States is clearly to defend energy security and a pivotal ally against a direct threat to global energy infrastructure. In Middle East Monitor, Mansour Kaiser said the Mecca Pact must meet the test of war. With fighting escalating in Yemen and Saudi Arabia under attack, regional leaders no longer have the luxury of discussing security institutions as a future project.

They must show what those institutions can do now. What distinct assistance in diplomatic leadership can the pact provide? Pakistan said on September 10th that no military response under the agreement has been discussed. The gap between a collective promise and an operational response deserve scrutiny. The pact should begin with tasks whose public value is clear, protecting civilians, coordinating air defense, sharing intelligence, and securing commercial navigation. Its members should agree how an attack is assessed, how assistance is requested, and how collective decisions are made. A promise to stand together becomes credible when governments know what they have promised,

and citizens understand the limits of the commitment. Continue to tax require a response with clear limits and political purpose. That's it for views from the left, right, and the Middle East. Now, back to Will for his take. Thanks, Audrey. All right, this is Will back to read my take. Although we've closely covered the conflict in Iran for months now, I don't feel that I have a strong handle on the trajectory of the war as it stands.

Instead, what I really feel is a sense of uncertainty and unease. Reports from the past week have heightened that sense. Recently released photos of damage to U.S. bases suggest that Iran's missile and drone attacks have been more successful than the Trump administration has communicated to the public, adding credence to concerns about the military's defensive capabilities. At home, energy prices jumped in August with gas up 3.9% from July, and the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time since 2023. Oh, and we just got a report from CNN on Friday

that the U.S. may have just barely avoided a direct conflict with China thanks to an AI chatbot mistakenly reporting that a Chinese ship in the Middle East was transporting nuclear weapon components. So I think you can get a sense of where that unease is coming from. While the Trump administration says that it remains focused on the Iran war, The president's attention of late doesn't seem to extend beyond Washington, D.C., where he's waging more personal battles against the press and the Kennedy Center. If you've seen the show Succession,

Trump's handling of the Iran War over the past few months reminds me of a scene from the show where one of the characters, Roman Roy, watches a live stream of a rocket launch that he coordinated go catastrophically wrong, then gingerly slips his phone back into his pocket and returns to the party that he's at, knowing that the mess he created is now someone else's to clean up.

With that said, as the fighting approaches the seven-month mark and the Houthi attacks threaten to further destabilize the Middle East, I think we've reached something resembling a fork in the road. Path one of that fork is the easier of the two to discern, and it aligns more with my own view of the conflict. It starts with interpreting the war

as a poorly planned mistake, and it leads to a widening conflict that's rapidly spinning out of control. Under that interpretation, the Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and its land seizures in and along the Red Sea are large steps toward a regional war. With traffic through the Strait of Hormuz still restricted, the already important Bab al-Mendeb Strait has become a critical route. The Houthis have now captured key territory in the waterway, threatening to further disrupt energy markets and, Consequently, the global economy. Adding to those energy woes, Iran-backed militias in Iraq were apparently behind last week's strikes on Saudi Arabia's east-west oil pipeline, knocking it out of service for weeks.

The Houthi's direct attacks on Saudi Arabia could prove equally consequential. From afar, the kingdom appears unprepared for this escalation, with reports that it's already running low on missile interceptors and is called on allies to come to its defense. But experts have long warned about the Houthis opening another front in this war. In an essay published exactly one month ago, Political scientist Alexandra Stark wrote, quote, while the United States looks to wind down the war with Iran, the Houthis are threatening to resume their war in Yemen, which would likely draw in Saudi Arabia, menace the global oil trade, and keep the region unstable, end quote. Furthermore, Saudi Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan recently signed a mutual defense agreement, the Mecca

pact, in the model of NATO. If one is attacked, the others come to their aid. Just over one month later, that pact is already being tested. Videos from this weekend showed a large column of smoke rising from the Riyadh airport, with additional reports of missiles being shot down over the Saudi capital. Saudi officials even said that the Houthis attempted to attack Mecca, Islam's holiest city, though the rebel group has denied it. Remember, Iran is a key backer of the Houthis, and these attacks almost certainly come with the regime's tacit or explicit support, and they appear to be on their way to turning Saudi Arabia into a new front in the Iran war,

if it isn't already. The next question is whether other countries get involved. The Mecca pact is top of mind, with Pakistan's defense minister signaling last week that the country is prepared to enter the fray, and don't forget that Pakistan has nuclear weapons. How many more dominoes could fall from there? It's not hard to imagine Israel taking an active role in a widening front, but if major disputes to energy markets continue,

European nations might also decide that they have to join the fight. Now, the Iranian regime's playbook is straightforward. Withstand the U.S. attacks and sanctions, gum up the Strait of Hormuz, and make the war as broad and unappetizing as possible. Right now, I'd say it's succeeding. And with less than two months until the midterms, Republicans here in the U.S.

appear poised to pay an electoral price for that. But even if there is a blue wave in November that shifts control of one or both chambers of Congress to the Democrats who then reign in the president's war powers, the conflict could already be beyond U.S. control. In fact, it may be there already. So in this first path that I'm describing, the best-case destination might just be

a U.S. withdrawal under heavily favorable terms for the Iranian regime. The road towards that darker outcome is easy to see. But path two, though somewhat shrouded by overgrowth, is still visible. At the start of the war, I expected that the combined force of the U.S. military and economic sanctions would overwhelm Iran, but it is proven resilient, in large part due to the regime's willingness to allow its people to suffer. Now, about seven months in, that resilience has almost created the opposite impression that Iran can withstand U.S. pressure in perpetuity. Now, I'm also not sure that that's true. The cracks are widening

in Iran's economy. Worsening economic conditions preceded the outbreak of nationwide protests in late 2025 and early 26, and by most metrics, the situation is worse now. The Iranian Rial has now lost 63% of its value against the U.S. dollars since March, and the country's unemployment, inflation, and energy supply are all at crisis levels. Iran's leaders no doubt want to project the country's willingness to persevere, but at a certain point, the economic reality will become unavoidable. As the writer Bridget Toomey suggested under what the right is saying, Iran playing its Houthi card right now may signal its desperation. As for the Houthis, Their Red Sea seizures and Saudi strikes could prove to be a side note in the story of the Iran War.

The group showed it was capable of causing headaches in the region with its post-October 7 strikes in the Red Sea, but those attacks ultimately didn't cause the Gaza War to permanently expand in scope. The same could be true here. The current offensive may indicate the war's high watermark, even or especially if Saudi Arabia's allies join the fight. And if the Houthi offensive is contained, where would that leave Iran? Well, still battered, still economically ravaged, and now with limited options for further escalation. If we go down Path 2, I still don't think a war-ending deal would materialize before the midterms, but it would mean that the Trump administration has leveraged toward obtaining favorable terms in any eventual agreement.

Right now, as I said at the start, I think we're more likely headed down Path 1, but that's not guaranteed. The days ahead will be instructive. How does Saudi Arabia respond to the Houthi advances? Do its allies get involved? Does the U.S.? Does Iran's economic collapse accelerate? Do the rising tensions bring both sides back to the negotiating table?

Again, as I consider all these questions, the only thing I feel confident in saying is that we've reached a critical juncture. All right, that's it for my take. Managing editor Ari Weitzman had a concurrence today, so I'm going to pass it over to him. Ari, to you. This is Tangos managing editor, Ari Weitzman,

with a staff concurrence to Will's take. I think Will's right to point out Iran's weaknesses in the current conflict, especially since most of the awareness we have in the U.S. about the war comes with price increases and body counts. But what if there's another path other than the two that Will laid out

or between them? What if Iran and its proxy groups are weak, but they're still successful at pushing any deal to end the war to the other side of the midterms. To drop the subjunctive mood here, I think that short-term outcome is likely. The part I have trouble with is what happens next, which depends heavily on the mood of President Trump in November. If I had a guess, I'd say that Republicans are going to underperform in the midterms and that Trump is going to unleash his frustration with a heavy, heavy escalation in Iran before any new Congress has a chance to limit his war powers.

Whatever ends up happening in November, I agree with Will about the outlook for October. The U.S. and Iran are not on a path that imminently leads to the negotiating table. That's it for my concurrence. I'm going to pass it back over to Will for the rest of the pod. That's it for my concurrence. I'm going to pass it over to Associate Editor Prater Pacheco for our reader question today. We'll be right back after this quick break. Thanks, Will. This question is from Jerry. from Alexandria, Minnesota. Convicted felons aren't allowed to vote.

Since Trump is a convicted felon, doesn't that apply to him as well? Voting rights for convicted felons vary by state. Some states restore voting rights upon a person's release from prison, others after a probation period or parole, others through separate application processes, and still others allow prisoners to vote

while incarcerated. Missouri permanently strips voting rights, for certain felony offenses, and only one state, Virginia, permanently disenfranchises all convicted felons, but that law is currently under scrutiny. As you allude to, then candidate Donald Trump was convicted

on 34 Class E felony counts, the least serious felony classification, in New York, in May, 24, for falsifying business records for Trump's payments to adult film star Stormy Daniels, widely known as the hush money case. In January 2025, just before Trump reassumed office, the case's presiding judge, Juan Merchant, ordered an unconditional discharge,

meaning Trump's conviction remained, but he would not face any jail time, fines, or probation. Merchant believed that imposing any harsher sentence would improperly interfere with Trump's duties as president. Trump is registered to vote in Florida, where he lists his primary residence. Florida used to ban felons from voting, but in 2018, Floridians approved a referendum to automatically restore voting rights to most felons after they've served their full sentence, which includes jail time, parole, probation, and any fines or penalties. This excludes those convicted of felony sex offenses and most types of murder. Under the state's stipulations, Trump can vote in Florida. But since Trump was convicted in New York, Florida defers to New York's rules.

In New York, felons are only barred from voting while they're incarcerated. A person convicted of a federal crime in New York regains their voting rights at the completion of their sentence. So under both sets of laws, Trump, or anyone else who received an unconditional discharge sentence, would never have his vote taken away. Now passing it back to Audrey for the rest of the pod. Thanks, Kureena. Lastly, we have today's Have a Nice Day story. In the wake of losing his brother Glenn in the attacks of September 11, 2001, Jay Winnock and his longtime friend David Payne decided to create a nonprofit organization called 9-11 Day to reclaim the day and generate hope and community out of the loss. In observance of the 25th anniversary, 9-11 Day collaborated with

one tree planted in AmeriCorps to pledge to plant 3,000 trees over the next year to honor the victims. On September 9th, the organizations launched their plan by planting a tree in Battery Park in Lower Manhattan. Spectrum News, New York has the story and the link will be in the show notes. That's it for today's podcast. If you would like to support our work, head over to retangle.com, where you can buy a newsletter subscription, a podcast subscription, or a bundle membership

that gets you a discount on both. We will be right back here tomorrow, but in the meantime, this has been editor Audrey Moorhead. On behalf of Isaac and everybody else, have a great day and peace. Our executive editor and founder is me. Isaac Saul, and our executive producer is John Wall.

Today's episode was edited and engineered by Dewey Thomas. Our editorial staff is led by managing editor Ari Weitzman with senior editor Will Kback and associate editors Audrey Moorehead and Bailey Saul. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75. To learn more about Tangle and to sign up for a membership, please visit our website at reTangle.com.