Tangle - A tenuous ceasefire in Iran.

Episode Date: April 9, 2026

On Tuesday, President Donald Trump announced the U.S. had agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran, conditional on the Strait of Hormuz fully reopening to commercial shipping. President Trump announced the deal less than two hours before his 8:00 PM ET deadline for Iran to lift its restrictions on the strait or face strikes on civilian infrastructure. Trump also said that the U.S. received a 10-point peace plan from Iran he believed to be “a workable basis on which to negotiate.”Ad-free podcasts are here!To listen to this podcast ad-free, and to enjoy our subscriber only premium content, go to ReadTangle.com to sign up!We’re hiring.Tangle is hiring for two full-time positions: an in-person role as an associate editor and executive assistant to our founder, Isaac Saul, and a fully remote position as a video editor. The deadline to apply for both positions is May 1.You can read today's podcast⁠ ⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠, and today’s “Have a nice day” story ⁠here⁠.You can subscribe to Tangle by clicking here or drop something in our tip jar by clicking here. Take the survey: How long do you expect the war with Iran to last? Let us know.Our Executive Editor and Founder is Isaac Saul. Our Executive Producer is Jon Lall.This podcast was written by: Isaac Saul and audio edited and mixed by Dewey Thomas. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75.Our newsletter is edited by Managing Editor Ari Weitzman, Senior Editor Will Kaback, Lindsey Knuth, Bailey Saul, and Audrey Moorehead. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

From executive producer Isaac Saul, this is Tangle. Good morning, good afternoon and good evening, and welcome to the Tangle podcast, a place we get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking, and a little bit of my take. I'm your host, Isaac Saul, and on today's episode, we're going to be talking about the ceasefire in Iran. I want to put ceasefire in quotation marks, which you'll hear more about in my take. but we're calling it a ceasefire for now. So we're going to talk about the ceasefire. Before we jump into that, though,

I do want to give a quick plug for two full-time positions that just opened up here at Tangle. That's right. We are hiring. Whenever we hire, we like letting our audience know first because those are the people

who follow our work and we think are typically committed to our mission. But so you know, we have two job openings. One is an associate editor and executive assistant position to work directly alongside me. This is an in-person role it requires being based in the New York or greater New York City area. It is a mix of an editorial and assistant

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I encourage you to go check them out. The deadline to apply for both is May 1st, so don't forget to do that if you're interested. All right, with that I'm going to send it over to Will Kayback, our senior editor who's on the pod with me today, to break down our main story. and I'll be back for my take. Thanks, Isaac. All right, here are today's quick hits. President Donald Trump

and North Atlantic Treaty Organization Secretary General Mark Vruta met on Wednesday to discuss the Iran war. After the meeting, Trump posted on truth social, quote, NATO wasn't there when we needed them, and they won't be there if we need them again. Number two, President Trump said

he will impose 50% tariffs on any country that supplied military weapons to Iran. Number three, the Justice Department's Civil Rights Division is reportedly investigating Cassidy Hutchinson, a former White House aide who served in the First Trump administration. In 2022, Hutchinson testified before the House Committee investigating the January 6th Capitol riots, and the Justice Department investigation appears to center on allegations that she lied in her testimony. Number four, the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee announced that former Attorney General Pam Bondi

will no longer appear before the committee to answer questions about the investigation into convicted sex offender, Jeffrey Epstein, saying that the original subpoena did not apply now that Bondi is no longer Attorney General. And finally, number five, an accused serial killer pleaded guilty to the murders of eight women over 17 years in long island's Gilgo Beach area. He's expected to be sentenced to life in prison without the possibility of parole in June. Right now, the Strait of Hormuz is closed as Iran is claiming the U.S. and Israel have violated the two-week ceasefire agreed to last night. On Tuesday, President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. had agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran, conditional on the Strait of Hormuz's fully reopening to commercial shipping. President Trump announced the

deal less than two hours before his 8 p.m. Eastern deadline for Iran to lift its restrictions on the strait or face strikes on civilian infrastructure. Trump also said that the U.S. received a 10-point peace plan from Iran, he believed to be a, quote, workable basis on which to negotiate. After issuing his ultimatum on Sunday, Trump posted on Tuesday, quote, a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again, end quote, if Iran missed the deadline. However, in the hours before 8 p.m., discussions between the sides mediated by Pakistan produced a deal by that evening. In a statement, the Supreme National Security Council of the Islamic Republic of Iran said Iran will, quote, cease their defensive operations, provided that the U.S. halts its strikes. Furthermore, it said passage through the Strait of Hormuz would be possible, quote, via coordination with Iran's armed forces and due consideration of technical limitations.

end quote. A small number of ships passed through the waterway on Wednesday, though the straight remains a substantial bottleneck. Additionally, Iran has begun charging ships $1 million or more for safe passage and is not indicated whether it will drop this toll as part of the ceasefire agreement. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel supports the ceasefire, but that it did not apply to Lebanon, and the Israeli military has continued heavy strikes over the past. day. A series of attacks in central Beirut on Wednesday killed at least 182 people and wounded 890, according to Lebanon's health ministry. On Wednesday, Iran reportedly shut down the strait of Hormuz again in response to these Israeli strikes. However, White House Press Secretary Carolyn Levitt

denied that the waterway was closed. The overall state of the ceasefire remains uncertain, with Iran accusing the United States of violating the terms of the agreement and Pakistani Prime Minister Shabh Sharif, urging restraint so that, quote, diplomacy can take a lead role towards peaceful settlement of the conflict, end quote. Though he initially expressed optimism about a deal to permanently end the war, President Trump posted on Wednesday night that the U.S. military will keep its assets in place, quote, until such a time as the real agreement reached is fully complied with. end quote. Future negotiations are expected to center on a 10-point peace plan circulated by Iran on Monday, as well as a 15-point U.S. plan that has not been publicly released. Iran's plan includes several provisions that have previously been sticking points in negotiations with the United States, such as continued enrichment of uranium and removal of sanctions. Additionally, it calls for compensation for damages sustained during the war and a withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from the region.

Today, we'll share views from the right and left on the ceasefire. Then executive editor Isaac Saul gives his take. We'll be right back after this quick break. Here's what the right's saying. The right is mixed on the ceasefire with many seeing opportunities and also risks. Some argue Trump's threats produced a desirable outcome. Others worry America's strategic and moral standing has been degraded. National Review's editors explored an uncertain ceasefire.

There were several problems in the strategic conception of the U.S. Israel campaign. One was that regime change, the only event that would have brought a decisive end to the war, was unlikely to be achieved from the air. It's possible that after the pounding it has taken over the last several weeks, the Iranian regime will be considerably more vulnerable to a popular revolt in the coming months. The fact remains, though, that the regime still has the guns and protesters in the street. The fact remains, though, that the regime still has the guns, and protesters in the streets do not. Another is that it was too hard to go and snatch Iran's highly enriched uranium in a military operation,

which is what it would have taken to put a true punctuation mark on Iran's nuclear program. The Trump administration was correct to consider it intolerable that Iran might develop such a robust missile and drone force that it could deter military action to stop it from developing a nuclear weapon. We have presumably set back its missile and nuclear programs for years, as well as kneecapping its regional power. The war has therefore enhanced our national security, but we shouldn't look past the strategic costs, global economic distress, more turmoil in the Western Alliance, depleted weapon stocks, benefits to the Russian oil economy, and the message that's been sent to China. In the American spectator, Francis P. Sempa said, Trump confounds critics again.

President Donald Trump has once again confounded his many critics by agreeing to a two-week ceasefire in the war against Iran after threatening to bomb Iran back to the Stone Age and end a civilization. Those same critics warned us last June that Trump's authorization to attack Iran's nuclear weapons facilities would lead to a quagmire and another endless war in the Middle East that Trump campaigned against. Trump confounded the critics then by stopping the war after 12 days once the objective was accomplished. The major dilemma is the Strait of Hormuz, the closure of which is wreaking havoc on the world's energy markets. Trump's ceasefire agreement is designed to resolve that dilemma. If the diplomatic route fails, the U.S. has three options. Walk away and declare victory, which would

leave Iran in control of the strait, continue the air campaign, which might bring Iran's leaders back to the negotiating table, and escalation. Iran's threat to the region has been scaled back. Any solution, military, or negotiated, is likely to be temporary. That is the way that international relations usually work. In the Federalist, John Daniel Davidson wrote, Trump's hyperbolic annihilationist rhetoric comes with a moral cost. Did Trump really call off some devastating, possibly nuclear strike because of a deal that only came through 90 minutes before the White House deadline? Maybe. Was the deal already in the bag before Trump made his hyperbolic threat that a whole civilization will die tonight? Possibly. What does seem clear

amid the fog of war, however, is that Trump's maximalist annihilationist rhetoric, talk of destroying Iranian civilization never to be brought back again, taking out the entire country, bombing it into the Stone Age, targeting critical civilian infrastructure like power plants, has already gravely damaged the United States. Why? Because America should only wage just wars. And waging a just war means being subject to certain restraints. Just war precludes immoral means, like the mass killing of civilians, to achieve victory. Even threatening such means, as Trump has done, damages the moral conscience of a people as much as it degrades the moral standing of a nation.

Whatever happens, we cannot lose sight of the moral dimension here. In both word and deed, if we do not hold ourselves to a high moral standard, then we risk, in a very real sense, becoming the villains in an unjust war. Now here's what the left is saying. The left is cynical towards the ceasefire, saying that it highlights the pointless nature of Trump's war. Some suggest Iran will emerge stronger from the conflict. Others contend the illusion of U.S. military dominance has been shattered. The Philadelphia Inquirer editorial board wrote,

The ceasefire leaves America with little to show for Trump's war of choice. Whatever peace agreement ultimately emerges will be far from Trump's ordered unconditional surrender, let alone his goal of regime change. Instead, the ill-considered conflict that upended the world economy and fractured U.S. alliances leaves Iran's brutal and repressive government battered but unbowed. The might of the U.S. military remains unquestionable, as does the bravery and dedication of the men and women in uniform. But the war, spearheaded by fools and promising disaster from its inception, has delivered a different defeat. America's standing in the world has been demolished, and the presence's vacuous, unpredictable nature, reaffirmed.

Tuesday's ceasefire was declared a victory by both sides. But what did the U.S. gain after spending $45 billion in counting? What did the deaths of more than 1,500 civilians, including 244 children, and 13 U.S. service members, resolve. Iran's nuclear ambitions linger. Its hold over the Strait of Hormuz has tightened. The damage to its conventional weapons program is unclear. Its regional proxies remain entrenched, and there's a new generation of ruthless hardliners in Tehran. In MS. Now, Anthony L. Fisher said Trump's war may also make Iran an even wealthier and more influential regional power. In his zeal to project the U.S.'s strength, Trump's actions on Tuesday have signaled something else entirely. A weak and unstable leader who has done irreparable damage to America's reputation and the global order.

Among the most befuddling developments, why did Trump declare Iran's 10-point proposal brokered through Pakistani mediators not good enough on Monday, but suddenly a workable basis on which to negotiate on Tuesday? And how can Trump claim to have fully reopened the Strait of Hormuz when Iran still controls it? By essentially shutting down the Strait of Hormuz at the relatively low cost of blowing up a few oil tankers, Trump's likely illegal war has arguably gifted the Iranian regime unprecedented clout as a regional power. So while Americans can breathe a sigh of relief that unspeakable war crimes aren't being committed against Iranian citizens in our name, we should not lose sight of the big picture. Our commander-in-chief has given us another reason

to doubt his leadership, his mental acuity, and his basic decency. Trump's war has killed many civilians upended the post-World War II international order and potentially made the Iranian regime a lot richer. In the nation, James K. Galbraith argued U.S. military power is obsolete. If the ceasefire holds the vicious attack launched by the United States and Israel on February 28, 26 will have exposed for all to see the obsolescence of U.S. military power. That power consisted mostly of of surface ships and bases, both of them impossible to protect from missiles and drones. The entire model built up in World War II in the Cold War is finished. Acknowledgement of this reality around the world will have vast effects.

It may hasten settlement of the other major conflict and tension zones. Ukraine on terms agreed with Russia and Taiwan on terms agreed with the PRC. So two weeks of certainty lie ahead. forces within the United States and in Israel could destroy the tentative settlement, resume the war, and deepen the damage. They will certainly try. Israel is still savagely bombing Beirut, inviting retaliation from Tehran. Within the United States, a reckoning is overdue.

At least since Clinton's attack on Serbia in 1999, the U.S. has been trapped in a web of delusions about its own power. In Afghanistan, Iraq, Ukraine, and the South China Sea, the U.S. has come up against forces. It could not, in the end, defeat. None of these have so far dented the psychological carapiece of the American elite. Iran's 10 points should finally force that reality down their throats. All right, that is it for what the right and left are saying. Now I'm going to pass it back over to Isaac to read his take. All right, that is it for the left and the right are saying, which brings us to my take.

A lot has happened since we wrote about Iran 48 hours ago and our podcast on Tuesday. On Tuesday morning, as we were producing the podcast, Trump threatened to wipe out an entire civilization. In Iran, residents began planning for life without gas and power. European leaders, Wall Street traders, and reporters scrambled to understand the sincerity of the threat. Iranian officials pulled out of negotiations telling Egypt that they would no longer talked to the U.S. military lawyers identified a small list of infrastructure targets feasibly tied to the Iranian military. In the late morning, Fox News host Brett Baer said he spoke to the president and that Trump assured him 8 p.m. is happening if progress in negotiations

wasn't achieved. The president remarkably went about his day. He held meetings with tech investors, justice department officials, and even phoned into a rally in Budapest where Vice President J.D. Vance was lobbying for Prime Minister Victor Orban. In the afternoon, criticism began to pour in, even from Trump's allies. Perhaps most notably, Italian Prime Minister, Georgia Maloney, called on Trump to clearly distinguish between the regime and millions of ordinary citizens. Senator Ron Johnson, the Republican from Wisconsin, called the potential attacks on civilian targets a huge mistake.

By mid-afternoon, Pakistani Prime Minister Shabashir, publicly urged Trump to extend his deadline for Iran to realize, open the strait and for a two-week ceasefire to snap into effect. And that is when things seem to change. At 6.32 p.m. Eastern, citing conversations with Sharif, Trump declared on truth social that the strikes were off. He said the United States had received a 10-point proposal from Iran that would be a workable basis on which to negotiate. Iran's parliament speaker, Muhammad Bagger Galibath, called it an agreed framework. What happened next is an area of Syria. is contention, but this is the best I can discern. Iran circulated its 10-point plan, which would

require all manner of major concessions from the United States. Among other things, it demands the U.S. cease all military aggression, grants Iran control of the Strait of Hormuz, allows Iran to enrich uranium, lifts sanctions, requires war reparations to Iran, calls for a ceasefire in Lebanon, where Israel was and is hammering Hezbollah and civilian centers in Beirut. The Trump administration administration didn't deny this was the 10-point plan Trump was referencing even while it circulated through the media and even as it drew criticism for being so lopsided in Iran's favor. Eventually, U.S. officials came out to say they had forced concessions on the Iranian plan, and their revisions were the actual basis for negotiations. Also, Trump administration officials

said the United States had put together a different 15-point plan for ending the war. That's three plans. Iran's 10-point plan, the U.S. revisions to that plan, and a separate 15-point plan that the U.S. has, all of which are purportedly the basis for the ceasefire. As of this writing, only the Iranian 10-point plan is public. At the same time, those terms did not seem to be conditions for the immediate ceasefire. Instead, the U.S. has demanded the Strait of Hormuzzi be opened, and Iran has demanded attacks against Lebanon stop. Yet neither of these things has happened either. U.S. attacks in Iran have ceased, but Iran began lobbying missiles and drones

at Israel and surrounding Gulf countries shortly after Trump's announcement, claiming that Israel violated the terms of its ceasefire by continuing strikes in Lebanon, which was number 10 in Iran's proposal, ceasefires on all fronts, including against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Van said this was a legitimate misunderstanding, adding that the Iranians thought the ceasefire included Lebanon, and it just didn't, which, if true, strikes me as an almost unbelievable miscommunication and a remarkable diplomatic failure. As for the Strait of Hormuz, despite Vance and U.S. officials insisting it is now open, nothing seems to have changed. If anything, Iran has tightened its grip. On Wednesday, just five ships

passed through the Strait of Hormuz, the fewest of any day in April. Even publicly, Iran is saying it will limit passage to just a dozen ships a day, and those ships will pay a steep toll for passage. Before the war started, over 100 ships a day were passing through the Strait of Hormuz freely. So, to sum up, There is a 10-point plan that nobody has agreed to and a 15-point plan that the public is not seen and a fundamental misunderstanding that the Strait of Hormuz will open and the attacks in the region will stop, though the strait is closed and the attacks haven't stopped. Seemingly, the only thing that has changed is that the United States is not currently pummeling Iran while a future day for negotiations has been set up.

Maybe this constitutes a ceasefire, but talks to end the war have purportedly been happening this whole time. So I'm not entirely sure how meaningful all of this is. For the media's part, I'm also not entirely sure what we're supposed to do. When the president announces a ceasefire and what's left of Iran's leaders say they have an agreement, we have to report that. We also have to report the on-the-ground reality. And in this case, the delta between the alleged ceasefire terms and what is happening on the ground is egregious. As for the only 10-point plan we actually have access to, I can't imagine how it's even a workable basis on which to negotiate.

Nearly every point in the plan looks to be a non-starter for the United States, at least in the context of previous negotiations. If Iran were to get even three of the ten points implemented in a ceasefire, any three, really, it would constitute a major improvement from their position a few months ago. That certainly doesn't mean Iran is somehow winning the war, which is an even more ridiculous claim than saying the United States has achieved a major victory. General Dan Cain's assessment is that we've destroyed 80% of Iran's air defense system, 90% of its Navy, 90% of its weapons factories, and 80% of its nuclear industrial base, among other things. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is dead as are most of his senior counterparts. Iran is obviously weakened, and their capacity for terrorism, nuclear proliferation, or attacking its neighbors is considerably degraded. Yet, at the same time, Iran has proven it can exert.

serious economic leverage on a global scale by controlling this single waterway. They've shown that they can tolerate an unspeakable amount of damage to their own leadership and their own civilian population. They've weathered the most threatening, straightforward promises for mass destruction imaginable from the United States president and watched as almost none of them have come to pass. And now they are negotiating from what they clearly understand as a position of strength, given that they are demanding concessions they never even have swung for in these negotiations. just a few short months ago. Trump, for his part, seems to be improvising in real time.

He suggested that Iran and the United States could enter a joint venture and control the Strait of Ormuse together, which is a rather shocking proposal when you pause to think about it even for a moment. The terrorist regime, we just said we needed to wipe off the face of the earth on Monday will on Wednesday become our business partner for the future, and our ships will pay tolls that line their pockets. That's to say nothing of the precedent is sets for other nations, to begin restricting free passage in international waters,

a problem that doesn't currently exist in large part due to American influence in our global trade system. Some will take away from this episode that Trump's Madman Act worked, that Iran blinked and that the media still doesn't understand Trump after all these years. Trump says big scary thing, big scary thing doesn't happen, supposed deal is agreed to, cue the takes about Trump, the negotiator, and a businessman,

while the hysterical media are all rubs for Pearl, clutching over meaningless words. The reality I see, though, is far more unsettling. I don't think the Mad King Act is really an act at all. I think the president feels trapped and is finding his way out on the fly, leaving a trail of destruction in his wake. The evidence for this is right before us. To quote so Rob Amari, the Iranian-American conservative commentator who endorsed Trump

as recently as 2022, quote, the objectives were ever shifting, changing the regime and putting Iran's destiny in the hands of its people, degrading military capacity, stopping a nuclear program that had already been obliterated in the course of the earlier 12-day war, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, not reopening the Strait of Hormuz, because we don't need it anyway. You better fucking open it, you crazy bastards, otherwise America will wipe out a whole civilization. Okay, how about we both run it in a joint venture?

End quote. Worse yet, I think Trump is still trapped and still feeling the walls as he wants. walks through the darkness, guessing on his next moves. I think this war is not over. Iran's control over this economic lever has not been removed, and we have not found our way out. If you can even call this situation a ceasefire at all, I'm skeptical it will survive the time between me reading these words and this podcast being published. I think Trump's threats were genuine, and the fact they didn't come to fruition was more happenstance, military bureaucracy, and good fortune than any semblance of a plan or an off-ramp. The deal Trump is negotiating is far worse than the one we had, if there is even

a shared reality on what the deal is, and I'm not sure there is. And in this case, the media's purported hysteria over the threats to wipe out an entire civilization was not just warranted, but perhaps understated, that we've moved on so quickly that it only took a few headlines about a ceasefire deal nobody seems to understand is perhaps the most worrisome thing of all. somehow impressively iran and the united states are both losing this war but that seems to be what war often is a violent circle of sacrifice and downsides justified by the people pushing it and tolerated by the rest of us all right that is it for my take i'm sending it back to will kayback for the rest of the podcast i will see you guys for tomorrow's special edition keep your ears out for suspension of the rules coming out soon

and if you don't hear from us before end of day tomorrow, I hope you have a great weekend. Peace. We'll be right back after this quick break. Thanks, Isaac. All right, for today's back sections of the newsletter, we're going to involve some of the newer sections that we're rolling out and experimenting with

that we flagged back in March. The first one we're going to do is called The Road Not Taken. And in this section, we offer a peek behind the curtains at Tangle's editorial process. highlighting at least one story from the week that we almost covered as our main story and an explanation for why we ultimately chose not to. As we entered Easter weekend last week, we were watching a number of stories, especially Attorney General Pam Bondi's dismissal and escalating violence in the Lebanon

theater of the Iran war. We ultimately chose to focus on Trump's deadline in Iran instead of Lebanon on Tuesday, reminder we were off on Monday, as the level of president's threat, had immediate and grave implications. Then, after choosing the White House's budget plan as our main topic on Wednesday, we felt we had missed the window to discuss Bondi's dismissal today. Were it not for the rapid development in Trump's messaging over the weekend, both Lebanon and Bondi would likely have been among our main topics this week.

Finally, here is today's Have a Nice Day story. Immediately after Texas's crushing defeat in the Battle of the Alibaldi's Alamo in 1836, Mexican soldiers looted the site, removing personal items from Texan combatants and important artifacts from the battlefield. On March 5, 26, a day before the battle's 190th anniversary, archaeologists uncovered a solid bronze cannonball and a layer dating back to the siege. Tiffany Lindley, the director of archaeology at the Alamo, said the cannonball was very likely from the 13-day battle and hopes to display it at the Alamo Visitor Center and Museum,

which is scheduled to open in 2028. Fox News has the story, and we'll put a link to it in today's show notes. All right, that is it for today's edition. We will be back tomorrow with a mailbag answering questions that we've received from readers and listeners over the past few months that we haven't had a chance to get to in the newsletter. Those are always some of our favorite editions to do, and they seem to be a hit kind of across the board.

So look out for that. That should hit your inboxes tomorrow afternoon. Thanks so much. Have a great day. Peace. Our executive editor and founder is me, Isaac Saul, and our executive producer is John Wall. Today's episode was edited and engineered by Dewey Thomas.

Our editorial staff is led by managing editor Ari Weitzman with senior editor Will Kayback and associate editors, Audrey Moorhead, Lindsay Canuth, and Bailey Saul. music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75. To learn more about Tangle and to sign up for a membership, please visit our website at retangle.com.