Tangle - Biden and Saudi Arabia.

Episode Date: June 29, 2022

President Biden says he will travel to the Middle East next month, from July 13-16. He will be visiting Saudi Arabia to meet with Arab leaders, including Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and will also be traveling to Israel and Palestine. Plus, a question about the future of Eastern Europe.You can read today's podcast here.You can subscribe to Tangle by clicking here or drop something in our tip jar by clicking here.Our podcast is written by Isaac Saul and produced by Trevor Eichhorn. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75.Our newsletter is edited by Bailey Saul, Sean Brady, Ari Weitzman, and produced in conjunction with Tangle’s social media manager Magdalena Bokowa, who also created our logo.--- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/tanglenews/message Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages six months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at flucellvax.ca.

From executive producer Isaac Saul, this is Tangle. Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening, and welcome to the Tangle Podcast, the place where you get views from across the political spectrum. Some independent thinking without all that hysterical nonsense you find everywhere else. I'm your host, Isaac Saul, and on today's episode, we're going to be talking about Saudi Arabia, and more specifically, President Biden's forthcoming visit to the kingdom. Before we jump in, though, I want to give you, our dear listeners, a brief heads up. We are going to be taking a little bit of a vacation. Fourth of July is right

around the corner. So tomorrow, Friday and Monday, the fourth tangle will be on a brief break. We'll be back Tuesday, July 5th. And when we come back, I'm sure there'll be plenty to talk about. But in the meantime, tomorrow in our newsletter, we're going to be sending out a few tangle stories you may have missed that you should definitely read and some suggestions from me, some stories that I've come across in my research over the last few weeks that I thought were interesting or maybe could hold people over until we're back. So keep an eye out for that. And yeah, we'll be back in your ears before you know it. So I hope you have a great break. All right, before we jump into today's main topic, we're going to start off as always with some quick hits. First up, Cassidy Hutchinson, a top aide to former White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows,

testified that Donald Trump knew his supporters were armed on January 6th and did nothing to stop them from attacking the Capitol. Number two, a judge struck down a law allowing non-citizens to vote in local New York City elections. Number three, Turkey lifted its objection to Ukraine joining NATO, and the alliance officially invited Sweden and Finland to join as well. Number four, Ghislaine Maxwell, a confidant of Jeffrey Epstein, was sentenced to 20 years in prison for sex trafficking-related charges yesterday. Maxwell plans to appeal. for sex trafficking-related charges yesterday, Maxwell plans to appeal. Number five, the Michigan Supreme Court ruled a lower court judge had no authority to issue indictments in the Flint water scandal, voiding charges against former Governor Rick Snyder,

his health director, and seven others. All right, that is it for our Quick Hits, which brings us to our main topic for today, which is Biden's visit to Saudi Arabia. President Biden says he will travel to the Middle East next month from July 13th to 16th. He will be visiting Saudi Arabia to meet with Arab leaders, including Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. He'll also be traveling to Israel and Palestine. Geopolitical onlookers expect Biden to press the Crown Prince to increase oil production in a bid to bring down gas prices, though video footage from the G7 summit yesterday captured French President Emmanuel Macron informing Biden the Saudis were already at capacity.

Others have suggested the visit is about a larger plan to expand the Abraham Accords, Trump's signature foreign policy achievement that normalized relationships between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, by bringing Saudi Arabia into the fold. The trip has raised a debate about Biden's foreign policy and the U.S. relationship with Saudi Arabia, which is long-standing and complicated. Over the last few decades, the relationship has been strained by oil embargoes, the Saudi-led war in Yemen, the 9-11 attacks, 19 of the hijackers were Saudis, and most recently the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, a Washington Post reporter. The CIA assessed that bin Salman was directly involved in that killing,

which led Biden to harshly criticize him on the campaign trail. I would make it very clear, Biden said, we were not going to, in fact, sell more weapons to them. We were going to, in fact, make them pay the price and make them, in fact, the pariah that they are. There's very little social redeeming value of the present government in Saudi Arabia. He sent his top Mideast advisor, Brett McGurk, to Saudi Arabia to inform Ben Salman that the U.S. would be ending its support for offensive operations in Yemen. Ben Salman responded by agreeing that the killing of Khashoggi never should have happened, but insisting that the reforms he was trying to push in Saudi Arabia, including moderating the country, would take time. He also seemed intent on repairing the damage done to Saudi-U.S. relations.

Now, Biden is planning to visit Saudi Arabia in a bid for more oil production and in hopes of thawing that relationship. The change has started some debate about what should happen next. In a letter to Biden, 13 different human rights groups warned that efforts to repair relations with Saudi Arabia without centering human rights are, quote, not only a betrayal of your campaign promises, but will likely embolden the crown prince to commit further violations of international human rights and humanitarian law. In a moment, you're going to hear a couple opinions from the right, a couple opinions from the left, and a couple opinions from Saudi Arabia on this issue. Then than my take. First up, we'll start with what the right is saying.

The right is split on the visit, with some criticizing Biden's hypocrisy and others seeing it as an opportunity. Some argue Biden is going back on his word, showing weakness. Others say there is a chance to advance U.S. interests in the region. In National Review, Jim Garrity criticized Biden's surrender to Saudi Arabia. Less than three years after he pledged to make Saudi Arabia a pariah state for killing and dismembering Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi, President Biden will travel to the kingdom and shake the hand of the man who ordered Khashoggi's assassination, Garrity wrote. It's an embarrassing end to a story of hubris and short-sightedness, reflecting the American appetite for simple solutions to complicated problems. Governing is a lot harder than campaigning, as Biden has been forced to

learn over and over again as his presidency continues. It was never particularly realistic for Biden or any other presidential candidate to pledge to make Saudi Arabia a pariah. Even at the height of the recent boom of U.S. oil production, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia were too dependent upon each other and had too many mutual geopolitical interests. For starters, even as recently as May of 2021, Saudi Arabia was the fourth largest source of U.S. crude oil imports, providing an average of 395,000 barrels per day of the 8.5 million barrels per day in gross U.S. crude oil imports behind Canada, Mexico, and Russia, he said. Biden's pledge to make Saudi Arabia a pariah state would mean ending all these interactions, economic, military, diplomatic, cultural, social, geopolitical. None of this is meant to hand wave away the significant and serious

U.S. concerns about the execution and barbaric dismemberment of Jamal Khashoggi, atrocious anti-Semitism, and Saudi citizens supporting terrorism and extremist causes. anti-Semitism and Saudi citizens supporting terrorism and extremist causes. But many decades of intense economic and security ties, along with close diplomatic relations and shared security interests relating to Iran and Islamist terrorism, means that the U.S.-Saudi relationship can't be turned on and off like a light switch. In the Wall Street Journal, Walter Russell Mead said this is an opportunity for Biden. On issue after issue, the Biden administration's Middle East policy stood in clear opposition to Saudi goals. Reviving the nuclear deal with Iran, a move that would inevitably boost Tehran's regional power by

ending its economic isolation, was the centerpiece of Mr. Biden's regional agenda. The Americans demanded an end to Saudi participation in the war against Iranian proxies in Yemen, threatened to reduce arms sales to Saudi and its allies, and trumpeted American intentions to wreck the fossil fuel industry, which is the foundation of Saudi wealth, Mead wrote. But, even as the Biden administration boasted of its principled stance against Saudi wrongdoing, Team Biden has gradually learned that almost all the key foreign policy ideas it brought to the White House don't work. Iran wasn't eager to rejoin the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

Russia wasn't willing to be sidelined. The failure of his Iran policy ironically offers Mr. Biden a chance to reset the Saudi relationship. While the administration waited and prayed, Iran steadily accelerated its progress toward a nuclear breakout and refused to re-enter the nuclear deal on terms that even a strongly motivated American president can accept. That leaves Mr. Biden no choice. He must tighten security ties with Israel and the Gulf states against the relentlessly hostile Iran.

The Saudis want stronger defense ties as much as the Biden administration needs them. That common security interest can be the basis for a renewed partnership. And by arguing that increased Saudi oil production will help isolate Iran and cut its revenue, Mr. Biden may just be able to persuade MBS to pump some more crude. Alright, that is it for what the right is saying, which brings us to what the left is saying. The left is also split on this issue, with some criticizing the visit and others hopeful it advances stability in the Middle East. Some criticize Biden for abandoning human rights interests. Others say Biden is making a necessary calculation. In MSNBC, Trita Parsi criticized the terrible deal Biden was headed toward. All the latest headlines about President

Joe Biden's July trip to Saudi Arabia focus on a deal to push down gas prices. In reality, he is making a much more sinister and dangerous calculation than most realize. He is reportedly planning to offer the dictators in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, where all but two of the 9-11 terrorists came from, a defense pact that commits American lives to defend their regimes. What could go right, Parsi asked. Rumors have been circulating in Washington for months that Biden is seeking to expand Trump's signature foreign policy initiative, the Abraham Accords, which normalized diplomatic relations between Israel and Bahrain and the UAE. Biden wants to bring Saudi Arabia into a similar kind of

arrangement with Israel. Details are beginning to leak of how he will try to get Saudi Arabia to take critical steps toward recognizing Israel. And the most alarming one is that the United States is offering a major security pact to the autocratic regimes in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, Parsi said. Committing American lives to defend these Arab dictatorships is far more scandalous than an embarrassing presidential handshake with the Saudi crown prince. Biden will in one swoop break his promises of bringing troops home from the Middle East, making Saudi Arabia pay a price, and ending the war in Yemen. In The Atlantic, Andrew Exum said,

I regret to inform you that Joe Biden is right to go to Saudi Arabia. The growing ties between Israel and the Gulf states have created a strong counterweight to the malign Iranian influence in the region, Exum said. Should Israel enjoy closer political, military, and even commercial relations with the Gulf, future American presidents could assume more risk regarding the U.S. commitment to the region.

Democrats have a lot to criticize from the Trump years, yet the Abraham Accords shouldn't be one of those things. But I fear the normalization process won't go any further without Saudi Arabia on board. In addition, most Democrats now recognize that President Trump stole what should have been progressive applause lines with his inartful yet relentless focus on connecting U.S. foreign policy back double the historic average of 52,000 cases. What can you do this flu season? Talk to your pharmacist or doctor about getting a flu shot. Consider FluCellVax Quad and help protect yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages six months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at flucellvax.ca.

Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. On everything from jobs to gas prices, Trump happily found boogeymen abroad and horrified foreign policy elites by describing what had been long-standing relationships in starkly transactional terms, Exum wrote. This might sound old-fashioned, but even if you beat up foreign leaders in

speeches or tweets intended for domestic consumption, you can still endeavor to negotiate with them on friendlier terms in private. Why, I asked my progressive friends, can we not do that in Saudi Arabia? Why can we have an ambassador to China or to Russia even, but not Saudi Arabia? Why can the president sit down with Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, a man who fervently and loudly asserts that the 2020 election was stolen from Donald Trump, yet not MBS? Alright, that is it for what the left and the right are saying, which brings us to some opinions from Saudi Arabia. Some have expressed concern Biden might abandon victims of the Saudi regime. Others are welcoming Biden and hopeful the U.S.-Saudi relationship continues to flourish.

In the Washington Post, Abdela Alalda, the Director of Research for the Gulf Region at Democracy for the Arab World Now and general secretary of the National Assembly Party, said Biden must not betray defenders of democracy in Saudi Arabia. and now offering him a photo op represents a stunning about-face, a personal betrayal of MBS's many victims, and a license for dictators everywhere to blackmail the United States, he said. My father, Salman, a reformist scholar of Islamic law, has been imprisoned by the Saudi state since 2017 and faces a possible death sentence. His crime? An innocuous call for peace on Twitter as a Saudi-led bloc imposed a blockade on Qatar. A year after he was jailed, the Saudi government brought 37 charges against him,

accusing him of inciting the public against the regime. My father has had no opportunity to defend himself in trial, and the prison conditions he is forced to endure, including solitary confinement and denial of medical treatment, violate international human rights standards. Given Biden's repeated denunciation of the regime and his administration's promise to center U.S. foreign policy around human rights, seeking a reset of relations with MBS is hypocrisy incarnate, he said. An administration official recently aimed to deflect criticism by pointing to the fact that Khashoggi was murdered during the Trump administration and that Biden has already imposed sanctions on Saudi Arabia officials involved in Khashoggi's murder.

But as human rights defenders observed last week during the unveiling of Jamal Khashoggi Way outside the Saudi embassy in Washington, Biden has not yet held MBS directly accountable despite the U.S. intelligence community's assessment that he ordered Khashoggi's killing and dismemberment. In the Saudi Gazette, Abdullah Tifal Muleen welcomed Biden to Saudi Arabia. The visit will include a summit meeting, which will bring together the Saudi king, the U.S. president, and other five Gulf Cooperation Council leaders, the king of Jordan, the president of Egypt, and the Prime Minister of Iraq, he wrote.

In other words, the visit is not about oil, but about regional and global challenges at a time when the world is facing one of the most difficult times, from high inflation, economic recession, regional instability, Russian-Ukrainian conflict, South China territorial dispute, increased numbers of refugees, food and and energy security to climate change. Global challenges are best resolved when influential countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United States head in the same direction, putting all differences aside in working together for the common interest for both countries and the world at large, he wrote. The United States, like in the past, can do more to influence the course of issues that disrupt

peace and stability in the region, like putting more pressure on Iran to end its threat to the region through supporting and sponsoring terrorist organizations, and stop exporting its ideologies that created chaos in places like Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen. The Saudi-American strategic relationship was, and still is, deep and important, and there should be continuous trust and mutual understanding of each other's interests and the way of governing without deepening or being hooked up or interfering in the internal affairs of the other. All right, that is it for the left and the right and some takes from Saudi Arabia, which brings us to my take. This is a really tough bill to swallow. For other presidents, like Barack Obama or Donald Trump,

whose ascent to the White House happened seemingly overnight, such an evolution might be a little bit more understandable. But Biden spent eight years in the White House and decades in high-ranking Senate positions that directly involved navigating Saudi Arabia and the Middle East. I doubt there were any surprises when he got to the White House, which begs the question of why he campaigned the way he did if a diplomatic relationship was just the inevitable outcome. Surely, Biden knew the U.S. relied heavily on Saudi Arabia for oil. Surely, Biden knew Iran

was unlikely to re-enter the nuclear deal with little fuss. Surely, Biden understood the horrors of what is happening in Yemen. Surely, Biden well aware of the human rights abuses, those known to the public and those not, committed by the Saudi crown prince and his allies. So why promise a U.S. foreign policy founded in human rights? Why pledge to make Saudi Arabia a pariah? Why do so little to actually hold bin Salman accountable for the murder of a journalist? Why pledge to end our involvement in the conflict in Yemen? These aren't rhetorical questions. The truth is the U.S. has never seemed capable of making more than one major oil-producing country a global pariah, and right now that country is Russia. While the administration has denied this visit is simply about oil, it's hard not to be cynical. The only major difference between now

and when Biden entered office is that Russia started a major war and has since been isolated, which has exasperated the already skyrocketing price of oil and other commodities. We'll find out when Biden visits the kingdom what his real goals are, and perhaps even witness another evolution in the U.S.-Saudi relations. The most likely objective, to me, seems to be a plan to draw Saudi Arabia closer and to stand between it and Russia, China, and their other adversaries. Pumping more oil would certainly help Biden domestically, but many experts are skeptical that Saudi Arabia alone could meaningfully drag down prices. Khalid Ali Jabri, a Saudi entrepreneur whose siblings are being held hostage in Saudi Arabia, has made the case that salvaging the U.S. relationship could be worth it so long

as the U.S. gets Saudi compliance on American interests and values, beginning with raising oil production and committing to accountability for Khashoggi's gruesome murder. That's a hopeful and perhaps even naive take on what's possible from this visit. A ceasefire in Yemen has already been extended and OPEC is already planning to increase oil production. It's hard to criticize the Biden administration until we see what comes of the visit, but key to any perceptions of success will be whether Biden can re-center the human rights issues or somehow defy expectations and push Saudi Arabia to pump even more oil. Either way, it's impossible to avoid the fact that Biden is breaking his word on how he'd handle Saudi Arabia. For now, it remains unclear what the upside of that backtracking will be, but the costs seem

clear. The U.S. is once again reinforcing the idea that it cares about ideals like human rights, peace, and democracy only when it's convenient, but will easily brush those things aside when it's not. All right, that's it for our main story today, which brings us to your questions answered. This one is from Bruce in Minneapolis, Minnesota. He said, in your opinion, what is the future of Eastern Europe? How far does Russia have to go before the Western countries actually step in to stop them? Since it has been 75 years since the people of this country have actually had to be personally involved in a war, will we be able to finally stick with something to the end? So honestly, I think Eastern Europe is more secure than it has been in years in many ways. Russia's actions have solidified NATO, and every day we get closer to a world where Finland,

Sweden, and Ukraine formally join the alliance. That doesn't just shore up the border with Russia, it also adds a lot of military capability to NATO, and given Russia's poor performance to date in Ukraine, it probably limits them from any further expansionist misadventures. To be frank though, I'm not sure where this war in Ukraine is headed. The atrocities continue to pile up, and the momentum seems to be oscillating. It's clear to me that Ukraine can quote-unquote win the war in the sense that it can hold out control of its own capital and most of its country, but a prolonged war with thousands dead, an economy devastated, and losing large swaths of eastern Ukraine is hardly a win for anyone on the ground. Still, I see it as extremely unlikely this conflict escalates to the point where it involves

American troops. For now, though, I think Putin's extremely unlikely this conflict escalates to the point where it involves American troops. For now, though, I think Putin's worst nightmares are coming true. Russia's economy is clearly struggling, its offensive in Ukraine is at best sputtering, and Europe and the West are more aligned against Russia's interests than they've been in decades. Alright, that is it for your questions answered, which brings us to a story that matters. Democrats and Republicans are coming together in Congress on three major issues, curbing foreign influence in U.S. elections, limiting members of Congress from stock trading, and greater regulation of big tech. These issues reflect both parties' renewed efforts to appeal

more to working class voters and bipartisan groups are hoping to push forward legislation addressing them before the midterms arrive. Axios has a story about these unlikely alliances in Congress and how they are playing out. There's a link to it in today's newsletter. Alright, next up is our numbers section. The population of Saudi Arabia is 35.9 million. From 2015 to 2019, the total percentage of arms imports to Saudi Arabia that came from the U.S. was 73%. The total amount spent on arms sales from the U.S. to Saudi Arabia between 2015 and 2020 was $64.1 billion. The value of the 280

air-to-air missiles the U.S. sold to Saudi Arabia in October was $650 million. The number of people who are estimated to have died in the Saudi-United Arab Emirates-Yemen conflict is 223,000. The number of people who are estimated to be on the brink of famine because of that conflict is 5 million. Alright, last but not least, our have a nice day section. An 8 year old boy in Germany who was missing for more than a week was finally found in a sewer. Identified only as Joe, living in the northwest German city of Oldenburg, he went missing on June 17th from his front garden, setting off a major police search.

Eight days later, a passerby heard him whimpering in the sewer just 200 meters from his house. Police quickly rushed to the scene to extract him after the passerby alerted authorities. He was apparently suffering from hyperthermia but had no other major injuries and is now in the hospital expected to make a full recovery. The police believe Joe climbed into the entrance of a sewer system while playing and eventually lost his way. NBC News has the story about his miraculous rescue and there is a link to it in today's newsletter. All right everybody, that is it for today's podcast like i said at the top we'll be back after the 4th of july so we'll see you on july 5th same time as always have a good one peace our newsletter is written by isaac saul edited by bailey saul sean brady ari weitzman

and produced in conjunction with Tangle's social media manager, Magdalena Bokova, who also helped create our logo. The podcast is edited by Trevor Eichhorn, and music for the podcast was produced by Diet75. For more from Tangle, subscribe to our newsletter or check out our content archives at www.readtangle.com. Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, We'll be right back. begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is nearly double the historic average of 52,000 cases. What can you do this flu season? Talk to your pharmacist or doctor about getting a flu shot. Consider FluCellVax Quad and help protect yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages six months and older,

and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at FluCellVax.ca.