Tangle - Biden announces his 2024 run.

Starting point is 00:00:00 Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages six months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at flucellvax.ca.

Starting point is 00:01:00 From executive producer Isaac Saul, this is Tangle. Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening, and welcome to the Tangle podcast, the place we get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking without all that hysterical nonsense you find everywhere else. I'm your host, Isaac Saul, and on today's episode, we're going to be talking about President Biden's announcement that he is going to be running again in 2024. Before we jump in, though, we do have a correction from yesterday's podcast. We reference Fox News's $787.5 billion lawsuit settlement with Dominion. That was actually a million, $787.5 million with an M. Pretty dumb mistake, obviously. This is our 81st correction in Tangle's 195-week history and our first correction since April 19th. I track

Starting point is 00:02:04 corrections and place them at the top of the podcast in an effort to maximize transparency with our readers. All right, that is it for the correction, so we'll jump in today, as always, with our quick hits. First up, a jury selection has begun in a civil trial against Donald Trump brought by E. Jean Carroll, the journalist who is accusing him of sexual assault and defamation. Number two, the World Health Organization is warning of a biological hazard after one of the two warring factions in Sudan captured a national health lab that contains samples of measles, cholera, and polio, among others. Number three, Fox News' 8 p.m. Eastern ratings fell 21 percent on Monday night, the first

Starting point is 00:02:54 evening since Tucker Carlson was ousted from the network. Number four, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky said he had a meaningful call with Chinese President Xi, who recently visited Russia. Number five, Republicans tweaked their debt limit bill last night after criticism from both moderate and conservative Republicans. The bill is expected to be debated and voted on today. president joe biden officially running for re-election this just happened he just announced his 2024 plans in a new video out right now exactly four years to the day after he jumped into the 2020 race president jo Joe Biden making it official, launching his 2024 reelection campaign and asking voters to help him, quote, finish the job. While the 2024 campaign is on, Joe Biden this morning is asking American voters to give him

Starting point is 00:03:58 a chance to finish the job and setting up a potential historic rematch with Donald Trump. and setting up a potential historic rematch with Donald Trump. On Tuesday, President Joe Biden officially announced his plan to run for president in 2024, setting up a potential 2020 rematch with likely Republican nominee and former president Donald Trump. That would be the first time the same nominees have faced each other in back-to-back elections since Dwight D. Eisenhower and Aldi Stevenson in 1956, and it would be the first time a president has been challenged by his predecessor since 1912. The opening images of Biden's campaign video announcing his decision are of the January 6 riot at the Capitol, and then transitions to Biden emphasizing his re-election campaign as

Starting point is 00:04:43 another showdown with MAGA extremists and a fight for our democracy. When I ran for president four years ago, he added, I said we were in a battle for the soul of America, and we still are. In 2020, Biden repeatedly described himself as a bridge to the next generation, and given his age, many interpreted that as a promise to serve a single term. Aides say his decision to run is fueled by his belief that Trump will win the Republican nomination and his confidence that he is the Democrat best positioned to defeat him again. At 80 years old, Biden is already the oldest president in American history,

Starting point is 00:05:19 and he would be 86 at the end of a potential second term in 2028. Trump, who is 76, would become the oldest president in U.S. history if he defeats Biden and serves a full term, which would end when he is 82. So far, no other Democratic candidate appears ready to challenge Biden. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the son of former Senator Robert F. Kennedy and the nephew of former President John F. Kennedy, both of whom were assassinated, has also declared on the Democratic ticket. But Kennedy, who has become best known for his anti-vaccine stances, is considered a long shot. Marianne Williamson, the self-help author who ran in 2020, has also declared, but is similarly not expected to pull

Starting point is 00:06:00 many votes. On the campaign trail, Biden is sure to emphasize a series of legislative wins in his first term. The $1.9 trillion COVID relief package, a $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill, major spending and investments to combat climate change, the lowering of prescription drug costs, a gun control bill, and the rallying of European leaders to support Ukraine. Republicans, meanwhile, will point to historically high inflation, the botched withdrawal from Afghanistan that left 13 Americans and over 170 Afghans dead, historic numbers of migrants at the southern border, and several major cities beset by higher rates of violent crime. Polling suggests that Biden faces an uphill battle with

Starting point is 00:06:41 his own base, too. In a new NBC News poll, 70% of Americans and 51% of Democrats said Biden should not run again, citing his age as a major reason. His overall approval rating is just 42%, lower than 10 of the last 13 presidents at this point in their terms. Still, a smorgasbord of polls from Morning Consult, The Wall Street Journal, Yahoo News, The Economist, and Harvard University all show Biden with a slight but consistent edge over Trump in a head-to-head race. Today, we're going to take a look at some reactions from the left and the right, and then my take. First up, we'll start with what the right is saying. Many on the right criticize Biden's first term and insist America doesn't want him running again. Some point to the national polls

Starting point is 00:07:40 suggesting how uninterested people are in a second Biden term, others call out his record on inflation, immigration, and crime. In the Wall Street Journal, Gerard Baker said four more years of Biden sounds like a prison term. Four more years. Have those words ever elicited less excitement, Baker asked? Have 48 months ever loomed as a more unnerving slog through domestic political strife and rising global insecurity? Has a nation ever peered more anxiously into a future under the leadership of a man far along the path of cognitive decline from which no one has ever returned? Normally, this is a rallying moment, but this time it sounds like a parole board's answer to a prisoner's appeal. Who is honestly enthusiastic about Joe Biden's campaign for a second term,

Starting point is 00:08:24 except perhaps for a son who can hope that a father in the White House will continue to shield him from accountability he deserves, Baker said. Certainly not most Americans. Only a quarter of voters want him to run again, according to an Associated Press-NORC poll released last week. There is no getting around the age problem, and most Americans have seen enough to know his capacities continue to shrink. National Review's editors said America doesn't want this, but Biden knows the Democratic alternatives are weak. Biden's record when in full control of his faculties is bad enough. He has been a feckless commander-in-chief, disastrously abandoning Afghanistan to the Taliban and signaling to Vladimir Putin that NATO might tolerate a, quote, minor incursion into Ukraine, they said. He has prioritized climate negotiations over the hard work of alliance building against the China-Russia-Iran

Starting point is 00:09:16 axis and needlessly alienated allies such as Saudi Arabia while badly neglecting American sovereignty at our southern border. But most shameful has been his flagrant and repeated contempt for the constitutional limits of his office, they said. Time and again, in unilaterally decreeing sweeping legislative policies such as student loan forgiveness, an eviction moratorium, and a national vaccine mandate, Biden has acted as if the president is a national lawgiver with general police powers. Biden has acted as if the president is a national lawgiver with general police powers. His profligacy with federal spending also exacerbated the runaway inflation of his first term, which is yet to be tamed. In Fox News, Ronna McDaniel, the chairwoman of the Republican National Committee,

Starting point is 00:09:57 said Biden's vow to finish the job should terrify every American. By any objective measure, Biden's failed policies have made life worse for Americans since he took office, she said. He spent nearly 50 years living on the taxpayer's dime as a career politician. Joe hasn't earned the right to finish the job, and it's laughable for him to claim he's protecting freedom in his campaign launch video. How can the failed president, who wants 87,000 new IRS agents targeting middle-class Americans, claim to be for freedom? How can the failed president who wants 87,000 new IRS agents targeting middle-class Americans claim to be for freedom? How can Americans feel free when they don't feel safe in their own cities or when they're being told that their children don't even belong to them, as Biden claimed on Monday? Our southern border is a humanitarian disaster.

Starting point is 00:10:39 Fentanyl is the number one killer of Americans aged 18 to 45, and 6.3 million illegal immigrants have crossed the border since Biden took office. Meanwhile, the economy is in shambles as inflation continues to hammer American families, while banks fail and wages are wiped out by skyrocketing prices. Biden has also systematically waged war on American energy as all 50 states recorded their highest average gas prices ever under his leadership. All right, that is it for what the right is saying, which brings us to what the left is saying. The left is split on Biden, with some insisting he has been a good president and can beat Trump, while others say he is uninspiring and should step aside. Some point to Biden's legislative victories and handling of Ukraine to argue that he is a capable

Starting point is 00:11:34 leader. Others acknowledge he could beat Trump again, but say he is doing little to improve life for Americans. In Vox, Dylan Matthews said Biden is pretty good at being president and he should run again. Biden is more popular than Ronald Reagan was at this point, and he went on to win 49 states, which tells you a bit about how poor an indicator approval ratings are this far from election day. He ended the war in Afghanistan after 20 crushing years. The economy grew at a steady 2.7 percent last quarter. Unemployment is the lowest it's been since 1969. Inflation is elevated, but falling wages are rising quickly, especially for less educated workers. You need to go back to the dot-com boom for a better economic picture than

Starting point is 00:12:18 this one. Biden approved the largest investment in R&D and development of clean energy in U.S. history, hundreds of billions of dollars in new science funding and an infrastructure bill, and has strengthened domestic semiconductor manufacturing. His handling of the war in Ukraine, which has been costly to Putin and involved no U.S. troops, has been outstanding. Even if you don't love his presidency, if you're a Democrat and care about Democrats winning, Biden is simply the best chance Democrats have in 2024. In Jacobin, Branco Marchetic called it the depressing starting gun for a bleak campaign season. Conspicuously absent is even the pretense that he'll do anything to make your life better,

Starting point is 00:12:58 he wrote. Biden rejected his own party's push to eliminate the debt ceiling last year, which would have neutralized the current hostage scenario that has given Republicans the leverage to try and slash Social Security. Other than use it as get-out-the-vote fodder, Democrats have done little on the federal level to protect reproductive rights, while Biden reportedly won't take on the Supreme Court that's driving this assault because he's worried about hurting its public standing. The voting rights bill went nowhere, and Biden moved on after the party refused to eliminate the filibuster. The fact that 71% of Americans think the country is going in the wrong direction surely isn't a sign of good health. More importantly, there is no plan. Outlining an

Starting point is 00:13:41 ambitious second term, reviving the very popular Build Back Better bill that died two years ago and formed the backbone of his presidential agenda, for instance, or vowing to expand Social Security benefits might give despondent Americans some hope. Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is nearly double the historic average of 52,000 cases. What can you do this flu season? Talk to your pharmacist or doctor about getting a flu shot. Consider FluCellVax Quad and help protect yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for

Starting point is 00:14:41 ages six months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at flucellvax.ca. In The Guardian, Margaret Sullivan said he's too old and not especially popular, but he's right to stop Trump. It's still startling to see how little awareness many Americans have of how hazardous the next election will be, she said. Not the odds, but the stakes is the excellent recent advice to journalists about how to focus their politics coverage from Jay Rosen, the prominent media critic and New York University professor. And the stakes could hardly be higher. Trump has chipped away at the foundations of American democracy, including doing his best to overturn the results of the 2020 election, and has steadfastly, if baselessly, denied its legitimacy.

Starting point is 00:15:31 Another Trump term, complete with appointments of Trump loyalists, would be nothing short of disastrous. It would be, quite possibly, the end of the U.S. as we know it, Sullivan said. Biden, by contrast, has done a far better job than most who voted for him could have hoped or even imagined. On top of his three signature bills, he also put the first Black woman on the Supreme Court and led the West's support for Ukraine. His age is a major worry, and there are other impressive and capable Democrats. But the answer to who should be the Democratic nominee is easy. The Trump slayer, Joseph R. Biden Jr. All right, that is it for the left and the rightist thing, which brings us to my take.

Starting point is 00:16:18 So as per our editorial policy, one thing that differentiates us from many news outlets is that we do not make endorsements. I'm not going to change that here or in 2024 or ever, so I need to tread carefully in a piece like this. As we did for Trump and Biden's first year, we'll review Biden's presidency when it's time, and I'm sure we'll cover a lot of the substantive debates on how his policies have fared. For now, though, what I feel comfortable doing is an anti-endorsement. The last thing I want in 2024 is a 2020 rematch. In my ideal world, we'd have two new and younger candidates to fuss over. However you want to frame Trump's presidency, it ended with the first non-peaceful transfer of power in U.S. history amid a calamitous pandemic response and began his continual denial that he lost the 2020 election.

Starting point is 00:17:12 The vibes are not good. No thank you. Conversely, Biden would be 86 if he were to leave office in 2028, appears less and less vigorous every time I see him and implied repeatedly before the 2020 election that if he were to win, he would not run in 2024. Somewhere in the middle of historic inflation and the disastrous Afghanistan withdrawal, he went from a bridge to the next generation to how many times do I have to tell you I'm going to run? Next, please. That doesn't mean we should be surprised. Only six of the last 45 presidents have chosen not to run for re-election. Putting up a new candidate is expensive and risky, and Democrats don't want to take any risks with a Trump candidacy. Who else would they even run?

Starting point is 00:17:57 I've seen so many names floated. Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker, California Governor Gavin Newsom, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar, or Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. Then, of course, there is Vice President Kamala Harris. But think about the calculations party leaders have to make. Pritzker is a snoozefest and would have to defend Chicago's current state in every public appearance he makes. Whitmer is more interesting. She may be best known for being the victim of a bizarre and kind of FBI-led kidnapping plot, but she pulls better than

Starting point is 00:18:34 Biden in Michigan, a battleground state, and seems capable of winning over voters from the center out to the left. Either candidate would be one gaffe or scandal away from getting down, though. Newsom is barely popular in California and already has a toxic national image. Sanders and Warren have both already run unsuccessfully, and few people seem less appealing to Americans than Klobuchar. Buttigieg might have the best communication skills of them all, but he never got traction in 2020, and his term as transportation secretary has not been inspiring. And in a race where 1-2% of the vote can make the difference, it's unclear if America is ready for a gay man as president. I personally like and respect Brown, who has a consistent ideological worldview,

Starting point is 00:19:16 connects with working class voters, can communicate across the aisle, and seems like an honest broker. He's got serious dad-at-the-base the baseball game vibes that I could see having wide appeal, though a haircut every now and then wouldn't hurt. Still, though, he's so progressive it's hard to imagine him pulling big national numbers right now. Harris, of course, has had a chaotic couple of years as vice president and appears incapable of even winning over a healthy plurality of Democrats. She currently polls behind Trump and has a national image that is already baked in, which, for party leaders, making ruthless decisions is very likely disqualifying. So, what to do? I was questioning Biden's mental faculties two years ago, and I think it's clear to everyone he doesn't have his fastball anymore. As of January, he had spent 197 days of the presidency away from the White House, far more than Trump,

Starting point is 00:20:06 either at his home, beach property, or Camp David. I remember under Trump when this absenteeism was so scandalous. The New York Times reported last summer that Biden's age was already presenting distinct challenges for his aides. What about two years from now? What about five years from now? I hate to be so crude, but statistically, it's pretty bleak. S.J. Olshansky, a professor of public health at the University of Illinois, Chicago, who has written about Biden's life expectancy, told Vox his survival probability in a second term is 59%. It might be a little higher than that, given Biden doesn't drink, smoke, and has low

Starting point is 00:20:44 cholesterol, but something near a coin toss on whether the next president survives his term is hardly inspiring. Sorry, but it's not ageist to note these things, it's just reality with real calculations to make. The prospect of a Harris presidency if something happened to Biden is not appealing to most and could even be concerning enough to hurt Biden's general election odds. But while polling suggests Democrats want something new, don't expect that to last. Polling this far out is notoriously malleable. Politics is weird in this way. We all have short memories, and hypotheticals always perform differently than hard and fast realities. More than 70% of Americans might want something different now,

Starting point is 00:21:25 Lord knows I do, but if Trump wins the Republican nomination and Biden sticks to running, Democrats will turn out in droves and Biden will probably win again. Once this race is defined, everyone will line up on their sides and go to war. In that sense, Biden might still be the safest bet for Democrats to keep the White House. As Ryan Gerdusky, a Trump supporter and author of the National Populist Newsletter, put it, 2024 is not going to be 2016. Trump isn't running against Hillary Clinton, and he isn't an undefined entity. Polls show a tight head-to-head race, sure, but Trump's own pollster, Tony Fabrizio, found that among voters who dislike both candidates,

Starting point is 00:22:04 they break for Biden by a 39-point margin. I doubt that changes much over the next two years. And for Democrats, that might be all that matters. All right, next up is your questions answered. This one's from Todd in Chandler, Arizona. Todd said, how do we know anonymous sources are real and not just made up? Also, do you think there are less reputable media sources out there that actually do make up anonymous sources? So first, I think you should always be cautious of stories with anonymous sources. Looking for confirmation from multiple outlets, people going on the record, or circumstantial evidence around the sourcing to get clarity is really important, but never take them wholesale.

Starting point is 00:22:50 That being said, I also think it's important to understand that anonymous sourcing is normal. There is a process. We used anonymous sourcing on Friday because most congressional staffers don't want their name in the news, even in rather innocuous pieces like how a bill becomes law. Some people stay anonymous to protect themselves, their reputation, or their agencies. Others stay anonymous to do as much damage as possible or because they want to offer bad information. It's a very difficult thing to parse. At major outlets, though, anonymous sources are usually known by more than just one person, and editors, if they are doing their job, will make sure a reporter really, quote, has the goods if they are pushing it to include

Starting point is 00:23:30 anonymous sources. There are layers of fact-checking and protection for news outlets. Professional risk and reputation are on the line. I suppose at smaller outlets or less reputable places, it is easier to do and maybe easier to make up anonymous sources, but it's such a major ethical breach of journalistic standards, I'd be surprised if it happened often. Again, you should always be skeptical of anonymous sourcing, but for different reasons. While I'm sure they are sometimes invented, I think most of the time they are real people with real motivations to stay anonymous, which is the real question behind that kind of sourcing. All right, that is it for our reader question, which brings us to our under-the-radar story. A new report suggests that half of the entire population of New York City

Starting point is 00:24:19 is struggling to make ends meet. The affordability crisis has resulted in half of the city's households being unable to comfortably afford an apartment, access to sufficient food, and basic health care. The study, done by the Fund for the City of New York and United Way of New York City, is the latest evidence demonstrating how unaffordable America's largest city has become and is emblematic of the rising cost of living that is impacting Americans in big cities across the country. The percentage of households struggling to afford basic needs is the highest of any year on record. Households in all five boroughs need to be making at least

Starting point is 00:24:54 $100,000 per year to cover food, rent, and transportation. The New York Times has the story, and there's a link to it in today's episode description. story, and there's a link to it in today's episode description. All right, next up is our numbers section. The percentage of 2020 Biden supporters who said they would support him in the Democratic nomination is 67%, according to a USA Today poll. The percentage of those voters who said they would support Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is 14%. The percentage of those voters who said they would support Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is 14%. The percentage of those voters who said they would support Marianne Williamson is 5%. The percentage of those voters who said they were undecided was 13%. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has a 48% to 45% lead over Biden in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, according to the Wall Street Journal. Biden's current polling

Starting point is 00:25:43 lead over Trump in a head-to-head matchup is 3%, also within the Wall Street Journal. Biden's current polling lead over Trump in a head-dead matchup is 3%, also within the margin of error. All right, that is it for our numbers section. And last but not least, our have a nice day story. Last week, a Burger King franchise owner in Michigan decided to close down 26 locations in Metro Detroit. News of the closings left more than 400 people without jobs. But the cannabis company Stizzy had a solution, hiring all of them. The company said the new jobs would pay more than $16 per hour, a higher wage than most workers were making at Burger King. Stizzy is offering immediate jobs to up to 200 of the laid off workers and said if there is enough interest, they would hire another 200. So far, the legal cannabis industry has created more than 32,000 jobs in Michigan.

Starting point is 00:26:31 Metro Times has the story, and you can read our previous coverage of whether we should legalize cannabis or not with a link in today's episode description. All right, everybody, that is it for today's podcast. As always, if you want to support our work, please go to readtangle.com and become a member. Subscribers make up more than 90% of our revenue and we need your support to keep this project going. Also, don't forget to go support our new YouTube channel. You can find us on YouTube at Tangle News.

Starting point is 00:27:02 We'll be right back here same time tomorrow. Have a good one. Peace. Our podcast is written by me, Isaac Saul, and edited by John Law. Our script is edited by Ari Weitzman, Bailey Saul, and Sean Brady. The logo for our podcast was designed by Magdalena Bokova, who's also our social media manager. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75. For more on Tangled, please go to readtangled.com and check out our website. We'll see you next time. When Willis becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. The flu remains a serious disease.

Starting point is 00:28:13 Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is nearly double the historic average of 52,000 cases. What can you do this flu season? Talk to your pharmacist or doctor about getting a flu shot. Consider FluCellVax Quad and help protect yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages six months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at FluCellVax.ca.

Tangle - Biden announces his 2024 run.

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