Tangle - California's gas car ban.

Episode Date: August 30, 2022

On Thursday, California announced it would ban the sale of new gasoline-powered vehicles starting in 2035. Plus, a question about the legality of student loan forgiveness.You can read today's podcast here.You can subscribe to Tangle by clicking here or drop something in our tip jar by clicking here.Our podcast is written by Isaac Saul and produced by Trevor Eichhorn. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75.Our newsletter is edited by Bailey Saul, Sean Brady, Ari Weitzman, and produced in conjunction with Tangle’s social media manager Magdalena Bokowa, who also created our logo.--- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/tanglenews/message Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight.

Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. From executive producer Isaac Saul, this is Tangle. Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening, and welcome to the Tangle Podcast, the place where you get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking without all that hysterical nonsense you find everywhere else. I'm your host, Isaac Saul, and on today's episode, we are going to be talking about California's new ban on gas-powered cars that's going to go into effect in 2035. Before we jump in, a quick heads up. We are quickly approaching 50,000 subscribers to our

newsletter. Obviously, we have a few thousand people who are listening to this podcast every day too, and I'm trying to push us across the finish line to this big milestone. So if you haven't yet, and if you can, this is me asking you very politely to share Tangle. Tell your friends, spread the word. It doesn't matter whether it's the podcast or the newsletter, just get the word out about Tangle. Take a moment right now, send this podcast to a friend, word out about Tangle. Take a moment right now. Send this podcast to a friend. Send the URL readtangle.com to a friend. Pull over your car. Don't get in an accident. Stop doing the dishes. Just take like 30 seconds and do it. I'll wait. No. No, I'm not going to wait. Please spread the word. We need it now. Trying to hit this milestone. It's going to be awesome when we do.

And I really appreciate it. All right, let's get into it with some quick hits. First up, at least 10 people were killed and several injured when Iraqi protesters clashed with security forces in Baghdad, following the decision by cleric Muftada al-Sadir to resign. 2. The Justice Department said only a limited set of documents seized from former President Trump may be protected by attorney-client privilege. 3. Ukraine began its much-anticipated counteroffensive against Russian forces in the southern region of the country. 4. More than 33 million people in Pakistan have been impacted by flooding. The United Nations issued a flash appeal for $160 million in aid. Number five, a new study says the melting of Greenland's ice sheet could raise sea

levels by 10.6 inches by the year 2100, more than twice the previous projections. The state of California, you've heard it before, passed a new rule banning the sale of all gas-powered vehicles by 2035. So there's still some time. There's some time. Take it from Ben Wu, the EV life is a-okay. He's among many in California now plugging in instead of filling up with electric vehicles. They're going green and seeing the green of tax incentives and not having to deal with spiking gas prices. Do you foresee any problems or roadblocks with this plan or is this doable?

Oh, sure. There are numerous problems. On Thursday, California announced it would ban the sale of new gasoline-powered vehicles starting in 2035. The announcement from the most populous state in the U.S. and the state many consider the center of U.S. car culture has the potential to reshape the auto industry. For instance, after California adopted tailpipe emission standards, 17 other states followed suit. Already, several other states are planning to implement the gas car ban or similar regulations, including Washington, Oregon, Massachusetts, and New York. Virginia, which passed a law in 2021 to align its emission

standards with California's, could also mimic the ban on new gas-powered cars unless the legislature intervenes. California's new rules were issued by the California Air Resources Board but still have to be approved by the Environmental Protection Agency. The policy will not ban people from continuing to drive gas cars or from buying and selling them on the used market after 2035. More than 16% of cars sold in California in 2022 were zero-emissions vehicles. The proposed rules will establish a credit system for automakers supplying California car dealerships. Automakers will have to meet benchmarks along the way. By 2026, 35% of sales must consist of zero-emission vehicles.

By 2030, 68%. By 2035, 100%. No more than one-fifth of the new cars produced in 2035 can be plug-in hybrids. They will also need to implement long-lasting and recyclable batteries. If an automaker fails to hit the benchmarks, it will have to obtain credits from another manufacturer who exceeded their quota. They can also be fined $20,000 per vehicle sold in violation of the target. benchmarks, it will have to obtain credits from another manufacturer who exceeded their quota. They can also be fined $20,000 per vehicle sold in violation of the target. Leanna Randolph, the chair of the California Air Resources Board, says the rules will lead to a 50% reduction in pollution from cars and light trucks by 2040.

Below, we'll take a look at some arguments from the right and the left about this policy, and then my take. First up, we'll start with what the right is saying. The right is critical of the policy, saying it will harm working-class Americans and make California worse. Some argue it's a gift to China. Others say electric vehicles aren't ready for mass adoption. In Newsweek, Jonathan Tobin said the news was a blow to the working class and a gift to China. The big losers will be poor and working-class Americans, he wrote. Car companies will adjust to whatever rules the government sets and pass on the costs to consumers. Even considering the massive federal subsidies that, while still enriching their manufacturers and investors, artificially depress their exorbitant costs, electric cars are far more expensive than gas-powered ones. The average cost for a new electric car is $66,000, compared with $48,000 for an average

new combustion engine car. Like President Joe Biden's decision to forgive student loan debts, this ban strikes one more blow against the poor and working class. The measure is also a gift to the nation's most dangerous rival, China, he said. China currently is the source of the most essential component of non-combustion engine cars, electric batteries. The Biden administration pretends it can fix this problem by encouraging, with more subsidies and tax breaks, the building of new factories in the United States. But the Chinese have already cornered the market on the mining of minerals like lithium, cobalt, and nickel that are necessary to build electric batteries. In the Washington Post, Henry Olson argued that the policy will fail because electric cars aren't

advantageous for consumers yet. Batteries of all types eventually lose their ability to store electricity, and vehicle batteries are no exception, Olson said. The longer you own an EV, the more the battery will deplete and require frequent recharging. This happens more quickly in places with extreme heat or cold, which is to say most places in the United States, outside California. That means an owner will either have to recharge their car more frequently, raising operating costs, or even replace their battery at substantial costs. Manufacturers typically warranty their battery for 10 years or 100,000 miles, but that's little comfort for someone who expects to drive their vehicle beyond

those points. Then you get the problem of convenience. Gas-powered cars can run for hundreds of miles without needing refueling, and filling the tank takes only a few minutes, he added. EVs are catching up on the ability to go long distances, but they can't come close to matching the refueling advantage gas-powered cars have. Even with a level 2 charger, which itself costs hundreds or thousands of dollars to purchase and install in one's home, it takes hours to fully recharge a drained battery. That's a matter of hard physical science, not economics, making EVs a problematic purchase for households that drive long distance frequently. This gap between hope and reality is endemic in climate change policy. People have

minds of their own and balance climate goals against a host of other considerations. If achieving climate aspirations costs too much, most people will abandon them in favor of other, more personally important goals. In Fox News, Tom Del Beccaro said Newsom is trying to build a presidential platform on a broken set of policies. As Americans are beset with inflation and a recession, you might wonder whether mandating high-priced electric cars makes sense and whether Newsom should be preaching to the rest of the country, Del Beccaro said. California has an energy shortage, period, full stop. There is also the very serious problem with the fact that California's existing power grid is so outdated that it isn't

ready to take on the level of electrification their green new policies require. The grid cannot handle the solar mandates California has imposed. You might be asking yourself, right about now, how can a state that cannot reliably deliver electricity to its citizens and businesses simultaneously require the use of massive amounts of more electricity. Please stop being so logical, he said. Now, by requiring its residents to buy expensive electric cars in the years to come, hitting them with the highest income taxes in the country and all its other problems, California's green energy car ban will drive even more Californians out of the state. If you don't think that matters to you, don't forget, as I wrote recently, Newsom wants to be your president. So, if you think things are bad now under President

Joe Biden, think how bad it could be if Newsom is elected to de-energize the nation. That is it for what the right is saying, which brings us to the left's take. The left supports the policy, though some worry about the ways it could fail. Many welcome California accelerating the national adoption of electric cars. Others argue the policy is a game-changer for the planet. In the Washington Post, Eugene Robinson said California is speeding up the future of cars. What makes this such a big deal, aside from the fact that if California were a country, it would be the 10th largest automobile market in the world, is that 15 other states follow

the zero-emission standards set in Sacramento, Robinson said. If they sign on to this mandate, too, the rule would cover more than one-third of all new vehicles sold in the country, essentially giving California the power to set emissions policies for the whole nation. Automakers such as Toyota, General Motors, Ford, Volkswagen, BMW, Honda, and Volvo have, in recent months, affirmed their support of California's right to set emissions rules. That might be because they'd like to be eligible to sell vehicles to the state government. And even before California announced its new rule, the industry was already racing to make the switch to zero-emissions vehicles because consumers are demanding them. Transportation accounts for roughly 40% of

California's greenhouse gas emissions. By 2040, the new policy is expected to reduce the carbon footprint of passenger vehicles in the state by more than half, even when taking into account the fossil fuels that might be burned to generate the electricity needed to power zero-emissions vehicles, Robinson said. This should be a moment of considerable optimism. One reason is that electric cars are so much fun to drive, with acceleration that puts old gas-powered muscle cars to shame. Another is that there's hardly any maintenance to speak of. No oil changes, no spark plugs to replace,'s hardly any maintenance to speak of. No oil changes, no spark plugs to replace, no radiator coolant to worry about. In Slate, Nitish Pawla said the ban on gas cars can't fail. It can be said with no hyperbole that this is a game changer. A former

Environmental Protection Agency official told the New York Times that, quote, California will now be the only government in the world that mandates zero-emissions vehicles. A clean air expert called the rules a turning point in cleaning up pollution. Plus, as California goes, so does the nation. Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+.

16 other states already adhered a longtime California policy on reducing carbon emissions from transportation, still the most climate-damaging sector to date, and increasing the use of clean and low-emission cars, Paula said. Things have changed significantly for both the domestic EV and combustion engine market over the past decade, making the new California rules less a threatening deadline than a reasonable, workable, legally binding guidepost. For one, it's already the case that 16% of new cars sold in California so far this year were zero-emission vehicles, Pala said. That's already a rapid shift from EV sales in 2019, which only made up 7.4% of the state's auto market at the time. According to the Alliance for Automotive Innovation's own reports, sales of EVs in every single state increased by some amount in 2021,

with significant above-average jumps in states like Oregon, Nevada, Colorado, and even Oklahoma, Pawa said. It's also the case that California's ban doesn't remove gasoline-fueled cars from the streets altogether, but merely ensures new gas-based engines will be gradually displaced by the zero-emission vehicle revolution. This will provide fewer options for gas guzzlers to pollute the skies for however long they may last. In the New York Times, Lisa Friedman and Brad Plumer said there are still legal issues to consider. The other big questions surrounding California's new rule are how many other states adopt it, and whether it could be stopped in its tracks by lawsuits. Under the Clean Air Act, California is allowed to set stricter rules on vehicle emissions than the federal government, and other states are

allowed to adopt California's rules if they choose. California can enforce its rule once it receives an official waiver from the Environmental Protection Agency. The EPA is likely to grant California a waiver to enforce the new rules. In recent years, 15 other states, together making up roughly one-third of America's vehicle market, have adopted California's previous, smaller rules to encourage electric vehicle sales. Those states will now each need to make a decision on whether to adopt the new 2035 ban on internal combustion engines. So far, five of those states, Massachusetts, New York, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington, have signaled that they are prepared to do so this year, once California receives an EPA waiver. Other states may take more time. In recent years, officials in Colorado and Minnesota faced fierce opposition from local

car dealerships and industry groups when they moved to adopt some of California's earlier rules, though both states eventually moved forward. Alright, that is it for the left and the right stake, which brings us to my take. So as with every piece of public policy, this one's far from perfect. California's power grid is already overwhelmed, and adding more electric cars is not going to help. The minerals necessary to meet the demand for electric vehicles are already setting off a race to mine the ocean floor, which is a new environmental issue we'll have to navigate. A surge in production of electric vehicles could push the price down, but it could also force prices higher if it exasperates production bottlenecks the industry is already facing. And yes, those prices are already high. The average electric vehicle sells for about $66,000

compared to $48,000 for your average gas-powered vehicle, meaning the transition will be easiest for the wealthy at a time when lower and middle income folks are already being hit hard by inflation. Worse, given that most low and middle income people don't buy new cars, the prices of used EVs is also skyrocketing. But there's a counter-narrative to most of those points. California's power grid has been crushed, in part, by extreme heat and wildfires, which are being worsened by climate change, which is the real problem zero-emission cars are trying to address. While the race for minerals is on, there are some encouraging signs there too. In 2018, 86% of electric vehicle batteries were

powered by cobalt, a rare metal. Today, with new innovations, that's down to 60%. The U.S. is also reshoring the manufacturing of computer chips and batteries to rely less on China and reduce supply chain issues. And while EV prices are going up faster than gas-powered cars, that's in part because demand is so high, which has overwhelmed the production lines. When gas prices exploded, consumers and car dealers began snatching up EVs to buy and sell. Ramping up production could very well make those issues more strained in the near term, but we're nowhere close to meeting the demand right now. To me, the best case for this policy is threefold.

One, the climate needs it. Automakers have a huge say in what lies ahead for the future of the planet, and this policy goes to a primary source of emissions and addresses it on a clear, achievable timeline. Two, it's a state policy, not a federal one. California earned the power to dictate how the industry moves by being the center of the car universe. It's wielding that power to pursue a commendable goal to reduce emissions and clean up our air. Three, the industry is already headed this way. Toyota, Ford, Volkswagen, BMW, Bentley, GM, Honda, and Volvo are already working to phase out gas-powered cars in the next couple decades,

and they're openly supportive of California's right to set these rules. That they aren't putting up much of a fight is very telling. These companies are making EVs because consumer demand is there. 14% of Americans would definitely buy or lease an EV, up from 4% in 2020. 22% would seriously consider it. That's right now, despite high prices, limited range, and supply issues. If mass production brings down prices, the biggest automakers competing to make the most efficient and affordable vehicles, and the infrastructure bill ramps up the number of charging stations, plus the government provides credits to buy new EVs, there is a world where that is a recipe for success.

With all the potential snags considered, the cost, the new set of environmental issues, the limited choices for consumers, I think this policy, with 13 years to implement gradually, still has the potential for massive upside. All of the biggest issues can be resolved organically over time by the natural competition to win over the mass market. And even if people initially resistant or unable to buy EVs hold on to their gas-powered cars longer, that's still an upside. It means people are keeping their cars for longer and there'll be fewer cars on the road. All told, I'm hopeful. Hopeful the innovators that make our country's auto industry a titan can bring down the cost for consumers. Hopeful we can find a way to responsibly supply

batteries, and hopeful the automaking industry will on-ramp a fleet of new EVs with range comparable to gas vehicles. In the long run, the money consumers will save on fuel, the energy independence will garner from being less reliant on oil, and the benefits for the planet will all be massive wins for the United States. All right, that is it for my take, which brings us to your questions answered. This one is from Louise in Topton, Pennsylvania. She said, what is the legal or constitutional underpinning for the president to be able to have the taxpayers cover this student loan debt? This is a good question and probably worthy of its own newsletter. We might actually do this with a breakdown of arguments from both sides. To be frank, the legality of the plan largely depends on who you ask. Biden himself said he

would not execute the plan unless he were confident in its legality, and he's now citing the analysis of the Department of Education and the Department of Justice to back it up. The DOJ and the Education Department both cite the Higher Education Relief Opportunities for Students Act of 2003, also known as the HEROES Act. That's not to be confused with the Health and Economic Recovery Omnibus Emergency Solutions Heroes Act of 2019, which was to address the pandemic. The 2003 Heroes Act gave the Secretary of Education authority to alter student financial assistance programs during a war, military operation, or quote, national emergency. National emergency now is the pandemic, and that's what the

Biden administration is citing. It's the same justification Trump and Biden used to pause student debt payments. The Supreme Court's recent ruling in a case involving the EPA cited the major questions doctrine, which requires explicit permission from Congress for an agency to employ extraordinary actions. That rule could come into play to undermine the debt relief. Some liberal legal watchers like Slate's Mark Joseph Stern have already predicted the Supreme Court will block student loan forgiveness, and Republicans are looking for a plaintiff to sue. So I suspect this is far from over. Alright, next up is our under the radar section. The rising cost of natural gas is driving up

prices of heating and electricity, and some 20 million U.S. households are now behind on their utility payments, according to Bloomberg. That is roughly one in six homes in America. The National Energy Assistance Directors Association says it is the worst crisis the group has ever documented, underpinning a surge in electricity prices. Utility shutoffs have dire impacts, especially at a time when heat waves are battering regions across the U.S. Bloomberg has the story, and there's a link to it in today's newsletter. All right, next up is the numbers section. President Biden's job approval, according to the latest Gallup poll, is 44%. President Biden's job approval, according to the latest Gallup poll, is 44%.

President Biden's job approval, according to last month's Gallup poll, is 38%. The percentage of Americans who favor providing incentives to increase the use of hybrid and electric vehicles is 67%. The percentage of Democrats who favor providing incentives to increase the use of hybrid and electric vehicles is 84%. The percentage of Republicans who favor providing incentives to increase the use of hybrid and electric vehicles is 46%. The percentage of Americans who say they are not too likely or not at all likely to seriously consider buying an electric car the next time they buy a vehicle is 45%. The percentage of Americans who say they are very or somewhat likely to seriously consider buying an electric car the next time they buy a vehicle is 42%.

Alright, and last but certainly not least, our have a nice day section. Last year, James Humphreys noticed that many of the seniors at the community center where he worked had shoes that were worn out or too big. One resident in particular concerned Humphreys because he was partially blind. When Humphreys got him a new pair of shoes, a colleague noticed and mentioned that she had a contact at New Balance. The domino effect began, and before they knew it, the company was donating 20 pairs of shoes to the two-life senior community. Humphreys says the residents were taken aback and super happy. The Week has the story about this good deed, and there's a link to it in today's newsletter.

All right, everybody, that is it for the podcast. As always, if you want to support our work, please go to readtangle.com slash membership. And don't forget, we are closing in on 50,000 newsletter subscribers. We've got a couple thousand people listening to this podcast every day. We're trying to push ourselves over the edge. Please spread the word about Tangle. Take a minute to do that later today if you can. It'd be much appreciated.

We'll be right back here, same time tomorrow. Peace. Our newsletter is written by Isaac Saul, edited by Bailey Saul, Sean Brady, Ari Weitzman, and produced in conjunction with Tangle's social media manager, Magdalena Bokova, who also helped create our logo. The podcast is edited by Trevor Eichhorn, and music for the podcast was produced by Diet75. For more from Tangle, subscribe to our newsletter or check out our content archives at www.readtangle.com. Thanks for watching! Lee becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming

November 19th, only on Disney+.