Tangle - Can the Senate prevent a government shutdown?

Episode Date: March 13, 2025

The budget resolution and potential government shutdown. On Tuesday, the House of Representatives passed a continuing resolution to fund the government through September 30 in a 217–213 vote. The spending package would extend much of current federal funding until the end of the fiscal year, with a $6 billion increase in defense spending and a $13 billion decrease in nondefense spending. The bill passed mostly along party lines, with Rep. Jared Golden (D-ME) joining Republicans to vote in favor and Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) joining Democrats in dissent. Now, the bill moves to the Senate, where it must garner 60 votes in order to pass by Friday to avert a government shutdown. Ad-free podcasts are here!Many listeners have been asking for an ad-free version of this podcast that they could subscribe to — and we finally launched it. You can go to ReadTangle.com to sign up!You can read today's podcast⁠ ⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠, our “Under the Radar” story ⁠here and today’s “Have a nice day” story ⁠here⁠.Take the survey: What do you think of the continuing resolution? Let us know!You can subscribe to Tangle by clicking here or drop something in our tip jar by clicking here. Our Executive Editor and Founder is Isaac Saul. Our Executive Producer is Jon Lall.This podcast was written by Isaac Saul and edited and engineered by Dewey Thomas. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75.Our newsletter is edited by Managing Editor Ari Weitzman, Senior Editor Will Kaback, Hunter Casperson, Kendall White, Bailey Saul, and Audrey Moorehead. Our logo was created by Magdalena Bokowa, Head of Partnerships and Socials.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

With the Fizz loyalty program, you get rewarded just for having a mobile plan. You know, for texting and stuff. And if you're not getting rewards like extra data and dollars off with your mobile plan, you're not with Fizz. Switch today. Conditions apply. Details at fizz.ca. From executive producer Isaac Saul, this is Tangle. Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening. And welcome to the Tangle podcast, the place we get views from across the political spectrum,

some independent thinking and a little bit of my take. I'm your host, Isaac Saul. Today is Thursday, March 13th, and we are going to be covering the impending government shutdown maybe is going to happen. We don't really know for sure, but there is a continuing resolution. That's a short term spending bill on the docket, ready to be voted on in the Senate. It is past the House. So we're going to break down exactly what happened there.

Before we do a quick heads up that tomorrow we're going to be opening up the mailbag and answering a bunch of listener and reader questions from the past few months, recovering the Trump administration, but also how Tangle works, cryptocurrency, Gaza, social security and more. And then we're giving some readers the last word on a few issues. This is our first mailbag since I came back from paternity leave. So I'm excited to dig into some of what you guys have been talking about and asking about. So I would definitely keep an eye out for that.

With that out of the way, I'm going to send it over to John for today's main story and I'll be back for my take. Thanks Isaac, and welcome everybody. Here are your quick hits for today. First up, Russia said it is awaiting further details from the United States on a proposed 30-day ceasefire with Ukraine and would take a position on the plan after receiving the information. Separately, the Russian military said it is in its final stages of ousting Ukrainian forces

from the Kursk region, which Ukraine had partially seized earlier in the war. 2. Greenland's Democratic Party won a general election victory in a surprise result. The center-right party advocates for gradual independence from Denmark, and party leader Jens Fredrik Nielsen has criticized President Donald Trump's proposal to purchase Greenland. Number 3. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is firing 1,029 workers as part of the federal government's cross-agency workforce reduction.

Separately, the Department of Agriculture paused funding for the University of Maine system, a network of eight public colleges in the state, while it investigates the schools for potential Title IX and Title VI violations. Number 4. Immigrations and Customs Enforcement announced it arrested over 32,000 unauthorized migrants in the first 50 days of President Trump's second term. According to ICE, the arrestees included 14,000 convicted criminals, 9,800 migrants with pending criminal charges, 1,155 suspected gang members, and 44 foreign fugitives.

And number five, Senator Jean Shaheen, the Democrat from New Hampshire, announced she will not seek re seek reelection in 2026. House Republicans are looking to pass a short term funding bill to avoid a government shutdown by March 14th. Speaker Mike Johnson says President Trump supports the move. Republicans will likely need to pass the bill without help from Democrats, which may be difficult given the razor thin majority in the House. This impacts every part of Washington. If they can't get this done, every department's

going to have some shutdowns. On Tuesday, the House of Representatives passed a continuing resolution to fund the government through September 30th in a 217 to 213 vote. The spending package would extend much of the current federal funding until the end of the fiscal year with a $6 billion increase in defense spending and a $13 billion decrease in non-defense spending. The bill passed mostly along party lines, with Representative Jared Golden, the Democrat from Maine, joining Republicans to vote in favor, and Representative Thomas Massey, the Republican from Kentucky, joining Democrats

in dissent. Now, the bill moves to the Senate, where it must garner 60 votes in order to pass by Friday to avert a government shutdown. For context, continuing resolutions are temporary spending bills that fund the federal government when Congress fails to pass regular appropriations bills. They continue existing appropriations at roughly the same levels as the previous fiscal year for a set amount of time. The CR is the first spending bill passed by the House without Democratic support since Republicans won a majority in 2022. To deliver the bill without the opposition party, Speaker Mike Johnson

promised future cuts to the federal government and made a last-minute concession not to increase special immigrant visas for Afghan soldiers who fought alongside US troops. Speaker Johnson also involved members of Congress who had been critical of past CRs, including Representative Chip Roy, the Republican from Texas, and members of the House Freedom Cau Caucus in the drafting process from the beginning. It's much easier to be flexible within the parameters of our own core principles when we've been deeply involved in crafting the legislation," said House Freedom Caucus member Representative Clay Higgins, the Republican from Louisiana. President Donald Trump also supported the bill.

The day before the House vote, President Trump issued a warning to House Republicans by threatening Republican holdout Massey on Truth Social, writing that he should be primaried. I don't know how to say this without cussing, Massey said. If they thought I had no Fs to give before, I definitely have no Fs to give now. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate, and with Senator Rand Paul, the Republican from Kentucky, promising to oppose the bill, they must win over eight Democratic senators to extend government funding and prevent a shutdown. Senator John Fetterman, the Democrat from Pennsylvania, has indicated he would vote for the bill, but other Senate Democrats have criticized the resolution for not including

protections against funding cuts from the Department of Government Efficiency. On Wednesday, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, the Democrat from New York, said Democrats would vote against the CR, arguing instead for a one-month funding bill to give the parties more time to negotiate. Today, we'll take a look at what the left and the right are saying about the continuing resolution and potential government shutdown, and then Isaac's tape. We'll be right back after this quick break.

With the Fizz loyalty program, you get rewarded just for having a mobile plan. You know, for texting and stuff. And if you're not getting rewards like extra data and dollars off with your mobile plan, you're not with Fizz. Switch today. Conditions apply, details at fizz.ca. All right, first up, let's start with what the left is saying.

The left opposes the CR, arguing it weakens Congress's ability to check the executive branch. Some say Democrats should not help Republicans avoid a shutdown. Others say Senate Democrats can stand up to Trump by blocking the bill. In MSNBC, Hayes Brown wrote, Senate Democrats need to hold strong against Trump's purse snatching. Contrary to what House Republicans insisted while defending the 99-page bill,

the measure isn't by any means a simple resolution to keep the government open. Instead, the bill manages to give away Congress's power to President Donald Trump both explicitly and implicitly, throwing the balance of powers even further out of whack, Brown said. In trying to rally arch-conservative House Republicans, who normally are loath to supporting

continuing resolutions, Vice President J.D. Vance reportedly told members that the White House would simply not follow the spending bill's instructions. Pushing members of Congress to publicly support a bill the White House promises not to follow is a gross bait-and-switch that transforms appropriations from law into mere guidance. Democrats want to forestall that with a provision that asserts the power of the purse in a way switch that transforms appropriations from law into mere guidance. Democrats want to forestall that with a provision that asserts the power of the purse in a way that would make it hard for courts to hear lawsuits over Dozier's cuts to ignore, Brown wrote.

It's now up to Senate Democrats to hold the line. They should explain to the American people that as the Constitution makes clear, the decision on how to spend their tax dollars should remain with the Congress they've elected. In Newsweek, Nicholas Creel argued Democrats should not help Republicans avert a shutdown. The fundamental reality is that legislative deal-making has become meaningless under this administration. What value could Republican concessions possibly have if Trump can simply override them with executive decree?

The answer is none. The entire exercise would only serve to give a veneer of legitimacy to a system that has lost its constitutional moorings. The only reasonable choice Democrats have left in this process is to not engage in the charade at all. Some will argue this stance risks economic chaos. They're right. However, engaging

in budget negotiations would only provide cover for continued constitutional violations that are themselves likely to upend the economy over the long term, Creel said. Should Democrats help pass a budget that they know Trump will feel free to ignore, they will be taking a degree of ownership in the fallout his illegal actions ultimately bring. The better path is to let the consequences of any economic calamity fall squarely where they belong, on the shoulders of the Republican congressional majority that is enabling this situation. In the American Prospect, David Day and said Senate Democrats' choice is block the Republican

spending bill or dissolve Congress. It is somewhat remarkable that dozens of House Republicans who have vowed never to pass stopgap bills to fund the government in their political careers caved on this one. But that's why I put continuing resolution in quotes. In reality, this is a hastily arranged partisan Republican budget that achieves much of their anti-government, anti-immigrant, pro-military agenda while paving the way for Trump to nullify whatever spending he deems unworthy," Dayan wrote. Without the luxury of Republicans falling apart, Democrats in the Senate need to decide

whether to prevent a dangerous and harmful budget that shrinks the power of Congress in the government. Some Democrats seem to be consumed with Senate brain, worried that they would be blamed for a government shutdown. What they are not understanding is that the Musk-Trump assault on government has created a kind of permanent government shutdown, where so-called non-essential personnel are fired and operations are deeply circumscribed. Why would any Democrat sign on to a bill making that state of affairs even more likely?

At a fear of the same government shutdown that the Trump administration is locking into place anyway? Alright, that is it for what the left is saying, which brings us to what the right is saying. The right mostly supports the CR, framing it as a necessary move to advance President Trump's agenda. Some argue Democrats would be unwise to block the bill. Others worry the bill will enable out-of-control executive power. In The Federalist, Eric Tietzell said, a continuing resolution is the best way to propel Trump's

agenda right now. At first glance, a continuing resolution may seem extra disappointing and irresponsible in this case. After all, we are talking about continuing the fiscal year 2024 spending levels established under the Biden-Harris administration," Titel wrote. But these are unusual times. The normal rules of policy and politics don't apply. First, and most importantly, President Trump is in charge.

Whether through reprogramming authorities, a rescission package, or impoundment, the White House is ready to ensure its efforts to gut the woke and weaponize the deep state are durable and lasting. Second, the only realistic alternatives to a clean CR are a CR Plus or omnibus appropriations package. Either option could only be passed with Democrat support, which means they would be loaded up with expensive nonsense, Tietzell said. Third, Congress must move past the March 14 funding deadline to focus on reconciliation.

Once the House passes a budget resolution, which it did on February 25, a reconciliation process can move forward that will include money for border security and immigration law enforcement, extension of the 2017 Trump tax cuts, new tax policies such as no tax on tips, deregulatory changes to unleash domestic oil and natural gas production, and much more. In Blaze Media, Christopher Bedford wrote, Democrats think a shutdown will help them. It won't. Senate Democrats are toying with shutting down the government on Friday. They think that they might get a win out of that, but they're not counting on who's in

charge of what a shutdown means. Just as with their antics at the congressional address last week, they are cruising for trouble, Bedford said. Democrats don't want to fund the president's government without promises that he'll curtail Elon Musk and the Department of Government efficiency's cuts to the executive branch. Democrats are tired of losing, and see a vote that requires seven or more Democrats to pass as their first real leverage beyond waving signs and canes. It's not the leverage that they think it is.

While DC is no stranger to shutdowns, they usually come from the right flank of the GOP. That's turned on its head this time, too, with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and the ranking Democrats on majority committees openly musing on the shutdown's power to disrupt Musk's cuts to the government. But is that even the case? Bedford asked. The point man for funding during a government shutdown is Office of Management and Budget Director Russ Vought, a strong proponent of limited government and a chief architect of

cutting fat and fraud. Vought and a team of lawyers cutting fat and fraud, Vought and a team of lawyers will largely be calling the shots. In Reason, Eric Boehm criticized the cowardice of Congress. The House of Representatives blocked the most direct path for lawmakers to revoke the emergency executive powers Trump used last month to impose tariffs on goods from Canada, Mexico, and China, Boehm wrote. The International Emergency Economic Powers Act is the law that Trump used to slap those

new tariffs on Canada, China, and Mexico in early February. Under the provisions of the IEEPA, Congress is allowed to cancel any presidential action, and those efforts are privileged, which means that they can be brought directly to the floor without first going through committee process. The House's new rules say that individual lawmakers can't do that anymore. Why do Republicans seem worried about blocking those privileged resolutions? The answer is likely that House Republicans don't want to be put on the spot with an up-or-down vote that would force members to choose between repudiating Trump or supporting

his unpopular, irrational tariffs, Bohm said. The message from House Republicans, minus Massey, is clear. Trump's executive power over tariffs is not to be challenged, even when there is clearly no emergency and when he's using those powers to jerk the economy around on a daily basis. All right, let's head over to Isaac for his take. That is it for the left and the right are saying, which brings us to my take. So when I first saw the news that Republicans were going to push through a CR, my immediate instinct was, why wouldn't Democrats vote for this? After all, a continuing resolution, almost by definition, mostly continues the spending

from a previous appropriations bill. That means Democrats would be starting the Trump administration by largely extending Biden's budget and doing so with help from Republicans. That's one legitimate lens through which to look at the House's spending bill. Representative Thomas Massey, the Republican from Kentucky, the lone Republican to break ranks in the House, and one of the few truly principled spending hawks left in the chamber, has been hammering this exact point. Historically speaking, Massey's viewpoint

has been generally correct. Trump and the GOP are claiming that they want to balance the budget, yet they're doing the same thing Republicans have been doing for years now. Pass a short-term spending deal because they can't agree as a caucus on the path forward to balancing the budget. It's a cop-out, one they have repeatedly promised not to take and a promise they've repeatedly broken. And with this CR, they're breaking it again. The House's stopgap bill actually increases spending by $10 billion from 2024, and it projects to reduce the deficit by just $8 billion, or

0.02% of the current national debt over the course of the next 10 years. The larger spending bill House Republicans tried to push a few weeks ago would increase the debt and deficit by trillions of dollars. The latest effort from congressional Republicans appears to be an attempt to offload their fiscal responsibility to doge, which simply does not have the constitutional power to fix our spending problems. That's not a tinfoil hat theory either. It's what Republicans are saying. I think for a lot of people back home, they're wondering why isn't this just the same thing that Congress always does? Representative Warren Davidson, a Republican from Ohio, told the New York Times. This is how the president has asked us to fight now so that they can do what they're doing with

those, she said. It is just mind-boggling to me that this is how the administration is planning to usher in an era of responsible government spending. To illustrate why, consider some numbers from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities on Federal Spending. With some important caveats, like the fact that our government borrows a good deal of the money it spends, you can think about every $100 you pay in federal taxes being broken up like this. $24 goes to health insurance programs.

$21 goes to Social Security. $13 goes to defense spending. $13 to servicing our debt, $8 to benefits for veterans and federal employees, $7 to economic security programs, $5 to education, $2 to transportation, $1 to natural resources and agriculture, $1 to science and medical research,

$1 to law enforcement, and $1 to international programs. Since the beginning of the Trump administration, Doge's efforts have focused almost exclusively on areas that add up to roughly two dollars and change. And in many cases, they haven't actually addressed the perpetual spending, but simply laid off workers. As we've said over and over and over,

the only way to actually address our spiraling debt problem is to reform social security, Medicare, and defense spending in a lasting way. Republicans say they want to do that, the only way to actually address our spiraling debt problem is to reform social security, Medicare, and defense spending in a lasting way. Republicans say they want to do that, but can never agree on a plan. Well, Democrats mostly propose moderate reforms. So should Democrats just vote for this bill

to lock in the bulk of their spending priorities and highlight how little Republicans are actually doing to find a long-term solution? Actually, I'm not so sure. David Dian, under what the left is saying, makes the case better than I could, and his argument rests on two pillars. First, this bill cuts funding that most Democrats in progressive support. And second, this bill effectively hands the power of the purse over from Congress to the

president and will further erode the balance of power between the different branches of government. The second argument here is much more salient to me. What Trump is actually trying to do is appropriate funding he never intends to spend, then use that money as a slush fund for whatever he wants, all while allowing the unelected, anonymous and dishonest bureaucracy that is Doge to run roughshod through the federal government, cutting all manner of important bipartisan and valuable programs without offering any sensible explanations for their decisions

or their mistakes. And again, he's doing that all while not actually balancing the budget, the North Star that is supposedly guiding all these decisions. To put it differently, I don't just think Trump's plan is bad in the immediate term.

I think it will do lasting damage to our government by becoming a blueprint for how a president can wrest control of spending from the legislative branch. Ed Kilgore rightly described this as institutional suicide by the party controlling the legislative branch. Along the way, the president wants to add billions in spending to the bloated and wasteful military, clawback funding for tax enforcement

and cut a $23 billion appropriation to a fund that cares for veterans exposed to burn pits and other cancer-causing chemicals. Trump promised a balanced budget and a booming economy, and so far I can't see the path to either based on his actual actions. Once again, I'm left looking at two parties and wondering what the heck has gone wrong. On one side, Republicans, despite what they are saying, are now backing another CR that would raise the debt and deficit,

but this time they're also endorsing a reduction of their own spending power. Remember, only a year ago, these same Republicans ousted Speaker Kevin McCarthy for pushing through a CR, and that was when they didn't even control the Senate or the White House. On the other side, we have the feckless Democrats,

who I believe will roll over and fold for fear of facing a government shutdown. Insider reporting indicates they are scared of what Trump and Musk will do during a shutdown, i.e. which programs their target for furloughs. But if they balk at a shutdown, they'll be ceding that kind of power to Republicans for the next four years. Doge will get free reign and then Republicans can pass an omnibus bill without any Democratic support. Then the courts will be the only place where Democrats have much of a chance

of slowing this administration down until 2026. So yes, I think Democrats should stand up and save Republicans from signing away their own power, but I sincerely doubt they will. Now, every Republican but one principled Kentucky in the house is seeding their stated values out of fealty to Trump. Every Republican but one principled Kentucky

is set to do the same in the Senate and the Senate Democrats appear ready to toss aside their bit of power and fade to obscurity because they're afraid of losing a messaging war over a government shutdown. Now, every Republican but one principled Kentucky in the house is seeding their stated values out of fealty to Trump.

Every Republican but one principal Kentuckian is set to do the same in the Senate, and the Senate Democrats appear ready to toss aside their bid of power to fade to obscurity because they're afraid of losing a messaging war over a government shutdown. The result for the rest of us is that we're left hoping Doge, which can't even accurately itemize its purported savings, will somehow keep the government functioning while also finding trillions of dollars of savings. I gotta say, I am not feeling hopeful about that. We'll be right back after this quick break.

We'll be right back after this quick break. With the Fizz loyalty program, you get rewarded just for having a mobile plan. You know, for texting and stuff. And if you're not getting rewards like extra data and dollars off with your mobile plan, you're not with Fizz. Switch today. Conditions apply. Details at fizz.ca. All right, that is it for my take, which brings us to your questions answered. This one's from Brett in Phoenix, Arizona.

Brett said, you mentioned aspiring to present a wide range of views on topics, but I've yet to see you include perspectives from any libertarian publications or authors. Have you considered including those voices when they differ from the left and right? So while we don't explicitly label perspectives as libertarian, we frequently do include writers under what the right is saying, who hold or espouse libertarian views.

In fact, we have one in today's edition. You'll regularly see libertarian commentators from Reason, the American Conservative, and other outlets entangle. Furthermore, Reason's Jacob Solem, who advocates for libertarian positions, penned a guest essay entangled just last month. Maybe you think we should reserve a section

in the newsletter for libertarians rather than categorizing them under the right. That's a fair argument, but we disagree. Libertarian principles of small government and low regulation are traditionally right-leaning approaches to government, so we put them on the right. Furthermore, only a small portion of the perspectives we consider for inclusion are straightforwardly libertarian, so a dedicated section would be difficult to fill routinely. Grouping them with the

right isn't a perfect solution. Libertarians don't fit neatly into the traditional left-right spectrum, and many align with progressives on certain social issues. But then again, the left and right themselves aren't monoliths and contain a lot of natural variance. All right, that is it for your questions answered today. I'm going to send it back to John for the rest of the pod, and I'll see you guys tomorrow for our Read It Mail bag. Have a good one.

Peace. Thanks, Isaac. Here's your Under the Radar story for today, folks. Peace. Thanks, Isaac. Here's your under the radar story for today, folks. The Brazilian state government of Pará is cutting down tens of thousands of acres of protected Amazon rainforest to build a four lane highway in the city of Belem for a climate change conference.

The 2025 United Nations Climate Change Conference, otherwise known as COP30, will focus on a host of climate and sustainability issues and is expected to draw roughly 50,000 attendees to the northern Brazilian city. While the state government and some local businesses say the highway will allow for new economic opportunities, many local residents have expressed concern about the highway's impact on the environment, wildlife, and agricultural economies in the city. The BBC has this story and there's a link in today's episode description. Alright, next up is our numbers section.

The U.S. budget deficit through the first five months of fiscal year 2025 is $1.5 trillion, $318 billion more than the same period in 2024. The estimated net deficit reduction of the House CR through fiscal year 2034 is $8 billion, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. The estimated reduction in federal revenues between fiscal year 2025 and 2034 due to the IRS funding rescissions included in the House CR is $66 billion. The number of House Republicans who voted for the CR and had not supported any stopgap funding bill since Republicans won the House majority in 2023 is six. The percentage of Americans who blamed President Donald Trump for the 2018-2019 government shutdown was 50%,

according to a January 2019 NBC News Wall Street Journal poll. And the percentage of Americans who blamed Democrats in Congress for the shutdown was 37%. And last but not least, our Have a Nice Day story. Sharonda Hunter was 25 weeks pregnant when she lost consciousness while driving in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Video footage show Hunter's car drifting slowly across the street, over a curb, and towards a building.

A nearby city bus driver, Latonya, saw Hunter's car drifting and immediately jumped out of the bus and ran towards the car to help. Latonya was able to keep Hunter alert until help arrived, and no one was hurt in the accident. Fox 6 has this story and there's a link in today's episode description. Alright everybody, that is it for today's episode. As always, if you'd like to support our work, please go to READTANGLE.COM where you can sign up for a newsletter membership, podcast membership, or a bundled membership that gets you a discount on both. For tomorrow's Friday edition, we're going to be opening up our reader mailbag and answer a lot of reader questions that we've received over the past few months.

We'll be addressing not just the Trump administration, but also questions on how Tangle works, cryptocurrency, Gaza, social security, and much more. To receive Friday editions, Sunday editions, interviews, bonus content and much more, you need to sign up for one of our premium memberships. Speaking of which, Isaac and Ari will be here with the Sunday podcast and I will return on Monday. For Isaac and the rest of the crew, this is John Law signing off.

Have an incredibly joyful and wonderful weekend, y'all. Peace. Our podcast is written by me, Isaac Saul, and edited and engineered by Duke Thomas. Our script is edited by Ari Weitzman, Will Kavak, Gellysol, and Sean Brady. The logo for our podcast was made by Magdalena Bikova, who is also our social media manager. The music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75. And if you're looking for more from Tangle, please go check out our website at readtangle.com.

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