Tangle - China, Taiwan and rising tension.

Episode Date: October 13, 2021

In the last two weeks, China has conducted several consecutive days of military exercises over Taiwan, sending a record number of fighter jets into Taiwan's airspace. This included a four-day period when it flew 150 military planes through Taiwan's airspace, which left the Taiwanese air force scrambling to respond. Taiwan's foreign defense minister Joseph Wu said "we are very concerned China is going to launch a war."In today's episode, we explore what's going on and what the U.S. role should be.Our newsletter is written by Isaac Saul, edited by Bailey Saul, Sean Brady, Ari Weitzman, and produced in conjunction with Tangle’s social media manager Magdalena Bokowa, who also created our logo.The podcast is edited by Trevor Eichhorn, and music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75.--- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/tanglenews/message Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is nearly double the historic average of 52,000 cases. What can you do this flu season? Talk to your pharmacist or doctor about getting a flu shot. Consider FluCellVax Quad and help protect yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages 6 months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at flucellvax.ca. From executive producer Isaac Saul, this is Tangle.

Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening, and welcome to the Tangle Podcast, a place where you get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking without all that hysterical nonsense you find everywhere else. I am your host, Isaac Saul. And on today's episode, we are going to be talking about China and Taiwan and some of the tension happening there, what it means for the U.S. and the world. We are going to be skipping our reader question today because this story requires just a little bit of background knowledge and laying some groundwork. So we're going to take a little bit of extra time to do that. Before we jump in, as always, we'll start off with our quick hits for the day. First up, the Biden administration says it will reopen the land borders to non-essential travel

from Canada and Mexico starting in November. Travelers will have to be fully vaccinated against COVID-19 to cross those borders. Number two, John Yarmuth, the House budget chair and Democrat from Kentucky, announced that he will retire yesterday. Number three, Social Security checks will increase by 5.9 percent in 2022, the largest cost of living adjustment in 39 years and a reflection of rising inflation. Number four, the House voted for a short-term increase to the debt limit, ensuring that the U.S. government can pay its bills until December when another standoff between Democrats and Republicans is expected. Number five, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas

ordered ICE to stop mass raids on immigrants' workplaces. All right, that is it for our quick hits for the day. And that brings us to our main story. Before we get started, though, I just want to say thank you. This has been a pretty crazy six weeks. And I mentioned this in the newsletter today, but we have launched this podcast. We have started a new website that we're still working on and redesigning. And there's just been kind of a lot of changes and new stuff and moving parts. And we have this incredible community of 27,000 plus listeners and readers who have been just

tremendously gracious and helpful, giving feedback and patient with some of the changes and the weird technical stuff. And I'm just super grateful and thankful for the community we're building and the mission we're after. And yeah, I just wanted to appreciate and acknowledge that. I'm feeling very grateful for all of you today and really glad that we are doing all the things we're doing and making all the changes we're making because I think it's going to create a better product for everybody. So with that being said, our main story today, Taiwan and China, this is a really interesting development just on the global stage. In the last two weeks, China has conducted several consecutive days of military exercises over Taiwan, sending a record number of fighter jets

into Taiwan's airspace. This included a four-day period when it flew 150 military planes through its airspace, which left the Taiwanese Air Force scrambling to respond. Taiwan's foreign minister, Joseph Wu, said we are, quote, very concerned China is going to launch a war. So before we jump in, I mentioned at the top we have some groundwork to lay. I just want to give a little bit of history here, which I think is really important. The relationship between China and Taiwan is pretty complex. China sees Taiwan as a rebellious province that broke away from its central rule. That's because in 1949, the two nations split after a civil war, and Beijing sort of refutes Taiwan's global independence.

And Beijing sort of refutes Taiwan's global independence. Like Hong Kong, when it split from mainland China, Taiwan was offered a one country, two systems rule arrangement in the 1980s, but it rejected that offer. And since the early 2000s, Taiwanese leaders have had different approaches to China. Some sort of move and campaign towards total independence, while others talk about strengthening economic relationships with mainland China and sort of bringing the countries back together in some ways. Tsai Ing-wen, the current Taiwanese president, wants to move toward independence. When China was encroaching on Hong Kong, Taiwan expressed concern that what was unfolding there would be coming to them next, and the latest military exercises seem to confirm that fear. Since the split, China has maintained that Taiwan,

a democratically ruled nation of 24 million people with a standing army of 300,000 active troops, is actually a Chinese territory that they can bring under control by force if needed. It has never recognized the island's government or its independence. On Monday, which was Taiwan's national day, Taiwan President Tsai delivered a defiant speech. She pledged that Taiwan would not bow to China's pressure, promising the island would not act rashly, but assuring Taiwan's citizens it would bolster its defense to ensure

that nobody can force Taiwan to take the path China has laid out for us. Chinese President Xi Jinping, meanwhile, vowed there would be a complete reunification of the motherland and said Tsai's approach incited confrontation. When Tsai ran for president, she won by a landslide, running explicitly on the promise to stand up to Beijing and maintain Taiwan's independence. Meanwhile, the U.S. has taken a rather convoluted approach to the region. It has a one-China policy in which it recognizes China and does not recognize Taiwan as an official independent nation. However, it does have a strong unofficial relationship with Taiwan, including arms sales and the Taiwan Relations Act,

which pleasures U.S. support to Taiwan to defend itself. In 1996, for instance, when China tried to disrupt Taiwan's elections with missile tests, the U.S. sent aircraft to the region to push them back. Earlier this month, the Wall Street Journal reported that a small presence of U.S. soldiers has been discreetly training local forces in Taiwan for the last year. With tensions rising, commentators on the left and right have discussed what the United States' role should be in protecting Taiwan. Coming up, we'll take a look at those arguments as well as some perspectives from abroad. All right, first up, we'll start with what the left is saying. The left is fearful of any kind of war with China, but wants the U.S. to defend it with non-military means as best it can. The Washington Post editorial board said we can deter China's

threat in Taiwan. Whatever President Xi Jinping's precise intention, to bully Taiwan and its allies, the United States included, to provoke them or to inflame domestic nationalism, it is not benign, the board wrote. As Mr. Xi's crushing of Hong Kong's free institution shows, the peaceful reunification between his communist state and the democratic Taiwan that he called for once again on October 9th inherently threatens all 23 million people who live on the island. A hegemonic China would menace Japan, Australia, and the Philippines, destabilizing the entire Indo-Pacific region. Since Mr. Biden became president, the United States has sold $750 million worth of artillery to Taiwan and continued a deployment of marine

trainers to the island begun under President Donald Trump. The troubling truth, however, is that in recent years, Pentagon war games and other assessments have shown that U.S. capabilities, even in combination with those of its allies, might not be sufficient to defeat a Chinese invasion. Even as it encourages more effort from Taiwan, Japan, and others in the region, the United States itself needs to invest more heavily in the hard power assets, especially naval forces, required to back up its commitments in East Asia. The president, however, proposed a defense budget that barely kept up with inflation, albeit with $5.5 billion earmarked for deterrence in the

Pacific. On a bipartisan basis, the House has approved a bigger spending plan with money for 13 new ships. That might impress China more than even the sternest words. David Vondrell asked if the key to China is not confrontation, but quote, managing its decline. Domestically, the CCP is flailing to defuse the demographic time bomb unleashed by the party's foolhardy decision in 1979 to limit Chinese families to a single child. A preference for boys has created a nation of bachelors which thwarts government efforts to reverse the damage, Von Drill said. Runaway health costs and declining growth are the likely consequences of an aging population. China's Belt and Road Initiative to create a 21st century infrastructure for eastern trade looks increasingly like a scheme to saddle

weaker partners with debt while keeping China's construction industry occupied. Meanwhile, the unmanageable domestic debt racked up to overbuild infrastructure at home has financial markets around the world quaking. China's problem would be China's province, but for one important fact, Xi appears to be flirting with his worst decision yet, one likely to cause worldwide pain or worse. In recent days, China has been filling the skies over Taiwan with warplanes, leading Taiwan's defense minister to warn that Beijing may be preparing to exert control over the breakaway island by force. But as long as he is ruler, the United States and its allies must move carefully to limit global exposure to Chinese mismanagement and deploy every tool short of war to deter rash

action by China against Taiwan. A whole new way of thinking is required. Western policy has long been shaped by China's rapid ascent, and that could be child's play compared with confronting a China in decline. All right, so those are two opinions from the left. We're going to move on to a couple opinions from the right and then some global perspectives. So the right is also invested in defending Taiwan, but it seems more willing to use military force if necessary. In the Wall Street Journal, William Galston asked if we'll come to Taiwan's defense. For decades, China's leaders bided their time, knowing that a military confrontation with the U.S. would end badly,

he wrote. But during the past quarter century, China steadily ramped up its investment in the People's Liberation Army. Between 2010 and 2020, spending rose by 76%, and the PLA's warfighting ability has vastly improved. In recent years, the Pentagon has staged multiple war games testing U.S. ability to defeat a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. The American team has lost nearly all of them. In this context, a once unthinkable event, a successful Chinese invasion of Taiwan, has become possible, perhaps even likely. The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is nearly double the historic average of 52,000 cases. What can you do this flu season? Talk to your pharmacist or doctor about getting a flu shot.

Consider FluCellVax Quad and help protect yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages six months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at FluCellVax.ca. occur and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at flucellvax.ca. will be more modern and significantly larger than America's by 2030. No sane person wants war between China and the U.S., but a combination of clashing ambitions, strategic miscalculations, and mutual misperceptions could land us in one, particularly if America doesn't take the necessary steps to persuade Mr. Xi that we are not what he believes us to be, a declining power lacking the means and

the will to defend our friends. In the New York Post, Richard Lowry said it's time to arm Taiwan to the teeth. If China can successfully absorb Taiwan while limiting the military, economic, and diplomatic costs, it would vindicate President Xi's vision of an ascendant China undoing past humiliations, represent a milestone in China's campaign to establish hegemony in the most important region of the world and perhaps collapse the credibility and global position of the United States. In other words, attention must be paid. The trajectory of the modern world is conceivably at stake, Lowry wrote. Nonetheless, invading and occupying Taiwan after launching a gigantic, logistically taxing amphibious operation across 110 miles straight

would be no small feat, to put it mildly. We should be fortifying Taiwan and making it as difficult as possible for China to take. That means stockpiling food, energy, and munitions against the Chinese blockade. It means making its infrastructure more resilient and enhancing its cyber capabilities. It means increasing its capability to detect an early mustering of Chinese forces. It means more mines, anti-ship missiles, air defense capabilities, and unmanned systems to frustrate a cross-strait invasion. All right, so that is it from the right here in the States.

And then I pulled out two interesting opinions I found from abroad. The first is from the Taipei Times, which is an English-language Taiwanese news outlet, and its editorial board said that a realistic threat assessment was needed. Despite increasing signs of heightened cross-strait tensions, it is unclear how Taiwanese should react, the board said. So far, Taiwan's economy, including commercial airlines, have remained unaffected. Most people seem to care more about COVID-19 vaccines and the quintuple stimulus vouchers. Few, if any, are talking about migrating or even evacuating in the face of China's threats. It is as if Taiwan were split into two parallel worlds, one dominated by

politicians' warnings and media reports about Chinese actions, how the U.S. might respond in statements of foreign officials, and the other inhabited by people who pay limited attention to those issues. If the aircraft incursions are a sign of impending Chinese invasion of Taiwan, why did their number not increase exponentially but only gradually, with larger numbers crossing into the ADIZ around symbolic dates? Why did the incursions occur near the South China Sea rather than closer to Taipei? Should Taiwan continue to place itself or be placed in the center of an international discourse about China's military actions, they asked? Asking these questions does not amount to downplaying China's military threat to Taiwan. Beijing has never

hidden its intention to annex the nation. However, to avoid seeing China's military threat to Taiwan. Beijing has never hidden its intention to annex the nation. However, to avoid seeing China's deployments through a distorted lens, the focus of the discussion should be widened. In the British newspaper The Observer, the editorial board expressed fear that China's slowing economy and the U.S. in decline could create a new war. After decades of growth and expanding influence, Xi's China is running out of gas, literally, the board said. Its economy is slowing amid chronic energy shortages, state debt is spiraling, productivity is falling, and the workforce is aging. Food insecurity is growing in an environmentally damaged land that is the world's largest food importer. Meanwhile, China grows short of friends thanks to Xi's aggressive policies and wolf warrior diplomacy.

grows short of friends thanks to Xi's aggressive policies and wolf warrior diplomacy. A China fearful its dreams of power and glory may be dashed, a divided America that doesn't know its own mind, a defiant Taiwan symbolizing the global ideological struggle between democracy and authoritarianism. These are the ingredients of a disaster. Recognizing and addressing them now could prevent future catastrophe, the board said. now could prevent future catastrophe, the board said. All right, so that is it. You got some takes from the left and the right, some views from abroad, and this is my take. So first and foremost, we need to avoid any kind of shooting war with China at all costs. That is the fundamental belief that I have. The United States just got done losing a war in Afghanistan that cost trillions of dollars and involved a far inferior and vastly underfunded enemy.

Of course, the contours of the war in Afghanistan, which involved war in cliques and nation building, were far different than any war with China would be. But to believe that we could have control or even would win such a conflict requires a level of delusion that I simply cannot fathom. China has wrapped its hands around the throat of Hong Kong with relative ease and very few repercussions, so there's no reason to believe it won't try Taipei, too. The worst thing we could do, though, would be to overreact. The flights into Taiwan airspace may have been record in number, but they were not unusual. It's the standard response from China any time something happens

in Taiwan they don't like. 28 fighter planes cruised through Taiwan airspace in June, two days after the G7 coalition emphasized the importance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait. 40 planes hit the skies one of the last times a State Department official met with his Taiwanese colleagues. The most frightening thing for me has been to see the cage rattling from U.S. politicians in the media. Frightening headlines about the threat of China paired with the chest-thumping politicians who seem perpetually excited about war are inducing a sea change in public opinion. In 1982, just 19% of Americans said they favored the use of US troops if China invaded Taiwan. In 2002, that number was 31%. In 2015, the number was 28%. In 2020, it was 41%. In July of this year, it was 52%.

The fact that I'm not excited about this sea change in public opinion does not mean that we shouldn't defend Taiwan, and perhaps even spend some of our own money bolstering their defense systems. I've conceded before that my views are akin to a China hawk without the war part. I believe the Chinese government is a grave threat to global freedoms. It is committing human rights crimes on a tremendous scale, and it is proven willing to destroy the economies of other nations just to protect its own reputation. The U.S., of course, has a checkered past of war crimes and covert government overthrows and plenty of civilian blood on its hands.

But our own failures and atrocities are no reason to cede such an important region to a nation whose authoritarian government can't even seem to find its moral compass, let alone try to use it. We should defend Taiwan diplomatically, through alliances, through military support, through coalescing allies in the region. But we cannot and should not risk a military engagement with a force that could easily defeat our own. All right, that is it for my take. That brings us to today's story that matters. As I mentioned, we're skipping our reader question. If you have a question you want to be answered in the newsletter or the podcast, you can email it in. Just write me, Isaac, I-S-A-A-C, at readtangle.com, R-E-A-D, tangle.com. That will go straight to my inbox, and you might get your question answered in the podcast or the

newsletter. Today's A Story That Matters is about COVID-19. A new report from Axios says that more Americans are now getting their booster shots than those that are getting their first dose of the COVID-19 vaccine. Some experts are worried that the priority should be on picking up vaccine holdouts, not boosting those that are already inoculated. Still, 77% of the eligible population has now gotten at least one dose of the vaccine. That's according to the CDC. Only 4.6% has gotten a booster shot, but that includes nearly 12% of people 65 and older who have received the booster. Axios has a fascinating story about those numbers you can check out in the newsletter today. That brings us to our numbers of the day, which are all tied to our main story.

$750 million is the cost of the first arms sale to Taiwan that was approved by the Biden administration. $1.8 billion is the cost of the Trump administration's 2020 arms deal with Taiwan. Second is Taiwan's ranking of freedom among all countries in Asia, second only to Japan. Eleventh is Taiwan's ranking in a list of most democratic countries in the world. That's according to the Economist Intelligence Unit. 151st is China's ranking in that category, according to the same list. 24 million is the estimated population of Taiwan, which is about the same population as Australia. as Australia. All right, and that brings us to our have a nice day section. This is a story that is close to my heart because I hate cancer and it has affected my family pretty deeply.

There is a new cancer treatment that can wipe out tumors in the terminally ill when they are head and neck cancer patients. This new trial is using a cocktail of immunotherapy medications that prompted a positive trend in survival by harnessing a patient's immune system to kill their own cancer cells. The research was done at the Institute of Cancer Research in London. Scientists found that the combination of two medications led to a reduction in the size of tumors in the tumorally ill head and neck cancer patients. In some, their cancer vanished altogether, with doctors stunned to find no detectable

sign of the disease. That's according to a report from The Guardian. Along with improving the long-term survival chances, the treatment also triggered far fewer side effects compared to the grueling nature of extreme chemotherapy. All right, that is a wrap for today's podcast. As always, if you can, please give us a five-star rating wherever you listen to podcasts. And remember that we are in need of some support to keep this project going. So if you've been listening to the podcast for a few days, you're liking it, you like listening as much as you like reading, maybe more than reading, please consider

going to the episode description of this podcast. You'll see a link there. It says support this podcast or something like that. You click the link. It'll take you to the page. It'll ask you for some money. And then, you know, you got to do the thing. Anyway, I appreciate it. Would love if you guys got behind the podcast and help us keep growing and expanding this thing. We're having a ton of fun doing it. And in the meantime, we'll be back in your ears tomorrow afternoon. Have a good one. Our newsletter is written by Isaac Saul, edited by Bailey Saul,

Sean Brady, Ari Weitzman, and produced in conjunction with Tangle's social media manager, Magdalena Bokova, who also helped create our logo. The podcast is edited by Trevor Eichhorn and music for the podcast was produced by Diet75. For more from Tangle, subscribe to our newsletter or check out our content archives at www.readtangle.com. The flu remains a serious disease.

Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is nearly double the historic average of 52,000 cases. What can you do this flu season? Talk to your pharmacist or doctor about getting a flu shot. Consider FluCellVax Quad and help protect yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages 6 months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed.