Tangle - Don’t forget about the war in Ukraine.

Starting point is 00:00:00 From executive producer Isaac Saul, this is Tangle. Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening, and welcome to the Tangle podcast, the place where you get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking and a little bit of our take. I'm your host for today's episode, Tangle's managing editor, Ari Weitzman, and today we're going to be talking about an update to the war in Ukraine. But first, before we get there, I want to give you an important update on an upcoming live event. that Tang was going to be hosting. We're going to be coming to Berkeley Springs, West Virginia, on June 13th and 14th for a special VIP dinner and a live taping of our weekly podcast suspension of the rules,

Starting point is 00:00:51 where I'm usually joined by our executive editor, Isaac Saul, and our editor-at-large, Camille Foster, to talk about all that's going on in the world of U.S. politics. Tickets are on sale now. We'll put a link to where you can get them in our show notes for this episode. And again, that is going to be June 13th, and 14th at the historic star theater in Berkeley Springs, West Virginia. It's not that far from D.C., Pittsburgh, Philly, Maryland,

Starting point is 00:01:18 even Ohio, New Jersey, North Carolina. If you're in the area, you should definitely check it out. It's a cool town has some historical relevance. George Washington's brother Lawrence used to go there to recover from illnesses, and now you can go there to watch us talk. We'll hope to see you there in June. But today we're talking about the war in Ukraine, so I'm going to send it over to our associate editor, Audrey Moorhead, to give us a rundown of that topic,

Starting point is 00:01:43 and I'll be back here for my take. Thanks, Ari. First up, we have today's quick hits. Number one. The Department of Justice unsealed a grand jury indictment against Raul Castro, the former president of Cuba. Castro was indicted on murder charges related to a 1996 aircraft shootdown that killed four people, including three Americans. Separately, the aircraft carrier,

Starting point is 00:02:13 USS Nimitz arrived in the Caribbean this week. Number two, James Murdoch's Lupa Systems announced it will acquire New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network, including Vox.com, in a deal valued at $300 million. Number three, President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that the U.S. and Iran were in the final stages of negotiations and that he would wait a few days for an Iranian response to the latest U.S. proposal. Number four. On Wednesday, SpaceX filed.

Starting point is 00:02:43 papers to move forward with an initial public offering. It is expected to become the first U.S. company to go public with an estimated market value of $1 trillion. Number five, the Department of Justice charged a former federal prosecutor with stealing sealed documents related to special counsel Jack Smith's investigation into President Donald Trump's classified documents case. We start the sound with the latest developments in the war in Ukraine, as Kiev says Russian forces are preparing for a major summer offensive. It has been a brutal couple of weeks in Ukraine with hundreds of missile and drone strikes across the country.

Starting point is 00:03:29 Just to give you an idea, overnight, Russia attacked eight regions. President Zelensky saying Russia used 524 attack drones and 22 missiles, both ballistic and cruise missiles in Denepro alone. Meanwhile, President Zelensky has also been defending a massive drone attack on Russia, saying it was entirely justified. On May 8th, President Donald Trump announced Russia and Ukraine had agreed to a three-day ceasefire. Each side accused the other of violating the truce and heightened strikes resumed when it ended on May 11th. Over the weekend, Ukraine conducted an overnight drone attack on Russia, including strikes in Moscow,

Starting point is 00:04:08 killing at least four and injuring 12, according to local officials. The Ukrainian military launched over 1,300 drones in the attack, which Russian state media called the worst attack in a year. The offensive followed last week's large-scale Russian bombardment that killed at least 24 Ukrainians and injured dozens more. In recent weeks, Ukraine has ramped up its long-raged drone attacks against Russia, striking deeper into the country and specifically targeting its energy infrastructure. Additionally, Ukraine's military has invested heavily in middle strikes, targeting sites 30 to 180 kilometers behind front lines, and is outfitted with advanced technological weaponry,

Starting point is 00:04:46 including a homemade precision glide bomb. These tools have enabled Ukraine to strike oil, gas, and electricity targets across Russia. Roughly 20 Russian oil export terminals and refineries have been damaged by Ukrainian strikes between April and mid-May. As a result, Russia's crude processing rate fell to its lowest since December 2009. These developments have raised questions about Russia's dominance in the war it escalated over four years ago. Russian forces suffered a net loss of 45 square miles in April, the country's first net loss since August 24, according to the Institute for the Study of War. On May 9th, the Russian Victory Day holiday commemorating the surrender of Nazi Germany,

Starting point is 00:05:27 Russian President Vladimir Putin held a significantly scaled back parade in Moscow. Reports indicated the Kremlin was concerned about security amid heavy Ukrainian strikes. However, some analysts push back on the narrative that the tides of the war have turned against Russia. Russian forces maintain control over key parts of Ukraine, and the ISW estimates Russia has gained nearly 30,000 square miles, or 12% of Ukrainian territory since Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022. Additionally, Western military officials estimated in February that roughly two-thirds of Ukraine's energy production capacity had been destroyed,

Starting point is 00:06:04 damaged or occupied by Russia since late 2025. Since fighting began, Ukrainian and Russian troops have suffered over one million combined casualties, while thousands of civilians have reportedly been killed. and the outlook of the war remains uncertain. President Putin, who traveled to China this week for discussions with Chinese President Xi Jinping, said shortly after the victory parade that he thinks the war in Ukraine is coming to an end. In an evening address on Tuesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said, quote, this month has brought a shift in the dynamics in our favor, in Ukraine's favor,

Starting point is 00:06:40 adding that the country is holding more positions and inflicting more damage. Next up, we'll share perspectives from the right, left, and writers abroad on the state of the war and the most recent strikes. Then I'll pass it back to managing editor Ari Weitzman for his take. We'll be right back after this quick break. First up, what the right is saying. Many on the right praise Ukraine's use of drone warfare. Others say Ukraine's war efforts offer grim lessons for its allies. In the Wall Street Journal, Tom Tugentat described the economics of victory in Ukraine.

Starting point is 00:07:28 The war in Iran teaches an old lesson about military spending. More than 1,000 interceptor drones roll off Ukrainian production lines every day, at $1,000 to $3,000 a piece. The bodies of Kiev-built attack drones are redesigned within months, not years, their engines even more quickly, and their guidance software within a matter of days. By keeping costs down and rapidly iterating simple technology at scale, Ukraine is delivering a devastating effect. Ukraine produced 4 million drones last year,

Starting point is 00:07:58 to produce 7 million this year, 10 times its output three years ago. For Ukraine, that's the economics of victory. Billions of dollars of weapons destroyed by drones that cost around $2,000 each. The goal is no longer the perfect weapon. You build the best you can. Then build it again, 90% is good at 80% of the cost and 50% of the time. Then do it again and again, a thousand times more. That not only fills the armory, it creates a system to keep it full. In the American prospect, Gil Barndollar said drone dominance isn't the vital lesson of Ukraine. Finding enough men to man the 1,200 kilometer front line is a ceaseless struggle for Ukraine. The country has more than 10 million military-aged men, but is struggling to keep an army of 1 million in the field. Many soldiers are

Starting point is 00:08:47 exhausted after years of war without rest. Policy decisions also contribute to the manpower crisis. Fearing post-war demographic collapse, Ukraine still refuses to draft men under 25. Many others have exemptions for critical civilian work, family circumstances, or health issues. The reality is that manpower is still the critical ingredient in war. Absent true machine autonomy, drone tactics don't remove the need for troops, they simply move manpower around. All the attention now being paid to drones and munitions production suggests that war can be undertaken without sacrifice. Ukraine's messy partial mobilization bears witness to the cost of failing

Starting point is 00:09:26 to prepare the public for war, a broad loss of trust in the army, widespread draft evasion, an army forced into a war of attrition by its lack of manpower for assault and maneuver. NATO nations, most still wedded to a brittle, all-volunteer force model, need to honestly grapple with what a protracted war would demand of their armies and societies. Next up, what the left is saying. Some on the left say Ukraine has all but eliminated its reliance on the United States and other countries. Others contend that Europe must now step up to help ensure Ukraine's long-term security. The Newsweek editors argued Ukraine is increasingly able to go it alone.

Starting point is 00:10:15 Ukraine's need for Western capability has given Washington an effective veto over many of the most politically sensitive strike options. And it's not just Washington. Germany has also shown reluctance to give Ukraine its long-range tourist missiles for some of similar reasons. Kiev, however, is gaining strike options that can be launched without a fresh American transfer of material. Ukraine's liberating push for self-sufficiency in long-range drones and missiles is beginning to pay off. The military damage from drone strikes near Moscow will vary by target and interception rate, but the political effect is harder for the Kremlin to quarantine because the war is becoming increasingly immediate for Russian civilians. The political

Starting point is 00:10:54 question is no longer whether Ukraine may someday acquire a U.S. approved weapon, capable of of reaching symbolic Russian targets. Kiv is already demonstrating that Moscow's defenses can be stressed by Ukrainian-made systems. In Bloomberg, Mark Champion argued, Ukraine is doing better, now it's Europe's turn. After a brutal winter,

Starting point is 00:11:14 Ukraine has managed to stabilize the front over the last few months, on occasion even making net territorial gains. Overall, the nature of the battlefield has changed in ways that blunt rushes overwhelming advantages in manpower, artillery, and armor. Now the Blunt,

Starting point is 00:11:29 block must agree to a new non-U.S. framework for peace talks and give Ukrainians hope by creating a bespoke path to their integration into the European Union and Western security arrangements. The good news is that most of Europe's leaders by now recognize that integrating Ukraine's large military and drone industry offers their own best security guarantee against a revisionist Kremlin, absent a reliable U.S. partner. Less encouraging is that this war has become a contest of narratives and confidence as much as a fight over land. So Ukraine's allies must read. group and respond accordingly. They cannot fall for Putin's nuclear threats, which are more a sign of desperation than of strength. For their own sakes, they need to find a new mediator to replace the U.S.

Starting point is 00:12:10 and ensure that Kiev survives what feels very much like Moscow's last throw of the military dice this summer. Finally, what riders abroad are saying. Many writers abroad say recent Ukrainian attacks have threatened Russian control. Others argue that European countries should prepare to rebuild Ukraine on several fronts once the war ends. In the Washington Examiner, Igor Bandar said Ukraine has broken the myth of an untouchable Moscow. Long-range Ukrainian drone strikes against Moscow

Starting point is 00:12:41 and the Moscow region have exposed something the Kremlin desperately tried to hide for years. Russia can no longer fully defend its own capital. The Ukrainian drone campaign is also exposing a deeper strategic problem for Russia. Modern drone warfare favors cheaper, mass-produced systems over traditional expensive air defense missiles. Russia is now forced to spend millions of rubles attempting to intercept

Starting point is 00:13:04 relatively inexpensive drones. In a long war of attrition, that imbalance matters. The broader point is that Ukraine is steadily scaling up a new model of warfare. The next phase will likely involve coordinated swarms, autonomous, medium-range drones, and artificial intelligence systems designed to overwhelm Russian air defenses. Russian authorities already appear deeply concerned about this shift. Panic inside Russia's drone industry has led to investigations, raids and corruption cases connected to failed procurement programs. Ukraine is dismantling the central myths sustaining Russian President Vladimir Putin's system. The belief that the Russian state remains strong, untouchable, and capable of protecting

Starting point is 00:13:45 its own people while waging war against its neighbors. In National Review, Alexander Krayev and Andreas Unland argued that a coalition must prepare for numerous new challenges once the war ends. war, not peace, remains the most likely scenario. Yet history rarely ends as expected. Europe cannot afford to be unprepared for the consequences of a sudden ceasefire. Should the fighting cease, Ukraine would not face a simple recovery period, but rather the beginning of a new multidimensional struggle, one that would simultaneously test its security, economy,

Starting point is 00:14:19 institutions, demographics, and political cohesion. Winning peace, especially under an imperfect ceasefire agreement, will be just as to be as surviving the war. Once security is established, economic recovery will be the decisive test. Ukraine's decline during or after the war would grant Russia a belated victory and spur authoritarian revisionism far beyond Eastern Europe. The end of fighting, whenever it comes, will be celebrated by Ukrainians, yet will neither reduce Russian imperialism nor resolve many of Ukraine's accumulated domestic problems. It will merely mean the transition to a new phase of intense political developments, whose outcome will continue to significantly impact the future of Europe.

Starting point is 00:15:00 That's it for what the left, right, and international riders are saying. Now, I'll pass it off to Ari for his take. The war in Ukraine is horrifying. Start with the numbers alone. Accurately reporting on these figures is difficult, since both sides tend to inflate the other's losses. But here's a good estimate. Since Vladimir Putin decided to launch an all-out assault to conquer Ukraine by force in 2022,

Starting point is 00:15:38 the war has claimed 250,000 to 300,000 Ukrainian military casualties and roughly 1 million Russian military casualties. That includes killed and wounded soldiers. Additionally, Ukraine has killed 8,000 Russian civilians, according to Russia, while Russia has killed 15,000 Ukrainian civilians, according to the UN. Just for the sake of comparison, Israel's war in Gaza has killed over 72,000 people. That's not to say one war is more horrific or more. important than the other or to minimize in any way what's happening in Gaza. That conflict is massively asymmetric and the majority of those killed in that war have been civilians. Just mentioned the numbers here to try to give some perspective on the sheer magnitude of lives still being

Starting point is 00:16:24 lost in this conflict as it approaches its fifth year. The war's territorial changes are also rather astonishing. Russia occupies over 45,000 square miles of Ukraine, and that's roughly 20% of the country. Recently, the tide of this war has turned, yes, but it's not some dramatic reversal of fortune. Instead, it's more of a literal turn of the tide. It's like a high tide that's no longer advancing, but is now starting to slowly recede from the shore. With the help of foreign aid and some foreign volunteers, Ukraine has offered fierce resistance, mostly with its own forces, against the slow, inexorable, steady Russian advance through eastern Ukraine, losing small amounts of territory every month since November 23.

Starting point is 00:17:12 In March, Ukraine pushed the lines back for the first time in years, and then they did it again in April. Not far back, but enough that you could see the past six weeks as marking the beginning of Ukraine's own inexorable march to pushing Russian forces out of its country. No peace is coming. Yes, the two sides mutually agreed to a U.S. brokered three-day ceasefire and a prisoner exchange during the Russian Victory Day celebration.

Starting point is 00:17:40 But that piece was tenuous at best. Each side accused the other of breaking the ceasefire's terms throughout, and the key disagreement still remains. Russia won't accept any peace that doesn't include Ukraine's seating control over parts of the Donbass region that it's currently still defending. Instead of hoping for productive negotiations with Russia, which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky famously told President Trump,

Starting point is 00:18:07 Vice President J.D. Vance, and the entire world would be a fool's errand. Ukraine has instead adopted a different strategy. Remove Russian soldiers from the battlefield faster than they can be replaced by new recruits. Doing so requires the Ukrainian military to inflict 30,000 enemy casualties per month, and they're succeeding. I consider myself a realistic person. I understand that Russia is relentless, that they've been barraging Ukrainian cities and vital infrastructure for years,

Starting point is 00:18:40 unleashing combined missile and drone attacks to deadly effect, and all the while flooding the zone with propaganda. I get that the support the U.S. and NATO countries have given Ukraine has been self-interested and wanting, providing just enough to keep Russia engaged, without being decisive enough to drive Russian troops out of, of the country. And I know that, given the situation, the existential threat, the relentlessness of the enemy, and the solitary nature of its fight, Ukraine has been forced to adapt or die.

Starting point is 00:19:11 It's just that the adaptation is frightening to behold. Ukraine has created a kill zone along the front with a few innovations to existing drone technology. To understand what this means, you need to know three acronyms. First, FPV. Ukrainian first person view, that's FPV drones are small, cheap aircraft that relay real-time video back to their remote operators. These are different from the long-range drones that Ukraine has been using to attack sites in Russia and terrorize its fast countryside, but once Russia is now diverting into Baltic countries. These FPV interceptor drones are small, fast, and cheap. Ukraine is sending thousands to the front every day. at about $1,000 per drone.

Starting point is 00:19:58 Second, you need to know the acronym EFP. These FPV drones can be armed with explosively formed projectiles, or EFP. Those are superheated, concave metal plates that, when detonated, transform into solid, fast-moving slugs that can pierce armor. EFPs can easily penetrate netting or wire that troops on the front lines use to protect themselves from other FPV drones, and they can even punch through tanks. Third, AI. Ukraine uses artificial intelligence systems to help pilot small quadcopter drones,

Starting point is 00:20:34 which turns cheap and easy-to-make machines into tools sometimes referred to as slaughterbots. These machines allow FPV operators to identify a target, then cede control to an AI piloting system breaking the requirement of remote human control. On-board AI makes drones and pilots pervious to jamming and allows them to complete the last leg of their killing journeys without any human intervention. Videos from FPV drones killing soldiers are easy to find, and frankly, they may be

Starting point is 00:21:07 the most disturbing videos I've ever seen. Watching a human being die is always disturbing, and many other videos of human death are far more gruesome or nauseating. But every video death evokes a feeling of uncanny distance through the screen. It's a facsimile, an experience less like what it is, and more like watching a video game, creating this terribly alienated feeling of removal. And that feeling is grotesquely acute when you're watching these videos.

Starting point is 00:21:39 An unsuspecting soldier, the drone approaches. He notices it and begins to panic. It accelerates towards him. He helplessly tries to evade, turns to face it at the last second. A freeze frame, AI enhanced image, his face, 45 years old, deep lines of hard years ingrained into a startled face, not comprehending its encroaching death. Another face, 35 years old, 21 years old.

Starting point is 00:22:05 Zoom out, a small explosion, then the next video. Let me be as clear as I can. I'm not blaming Ukraine for finding the path it needs to take to win a war it did not choose. We should never forget that Vladimir Putin started. in this war. He did it because he believes the free nation of Ukraine belongs to Russia, and he can stop the war at any time by leaving the territories that he invaded. Ukraine is doing what countless nations and armies and tribes have done throughout history, which is innovate the cold and bloody machinery of war.

Starting point is 00:22:38 Here's how one Ukrainian FPV brigade commander put it to the New York Times. Any large-scale war, it delivers demons. It unleashes something powerful and accelerates developments which otherwise would have taken decades. Or, if you prefer, here's another quote from him. If the international community is so concerned about this, then they should have stopped the war early on. The United States, Europe, and NATO should all be gladden to see Ukraine assert control. Again, it would be good for Ukraine to prevail here. But if indeed the tide of war is turning, and it's a red tide coming in, it's very unsettling to be cheering Ukraine's advances in this moment. And again, I unequivocally

Starting point is 00:23:21 hope that they can push Russia out, that they can rack up steady gains on the front lines, and then leverage their success into a strong negotiating position they can use to bring a permanent end to this war. But I also fear the future of war that the end of this one would bring. Slaughterbots would have seemed like science fiction even a year ago. Today, they're actually Ukraine's battlefield strategy. And while Ukraine is making concerted efforts to ensure oversight their AI-powered FPV drowns, would every army do the same? A future where Iranian forces

Starting point is 00:23:57 remotely crack open a container in the port of Los Angeles to unleash flying autonomous killing machines is no longer a scenario that actually seems that far-fetched. Ukraine is giving us a glimpse of that potential future, and I don't think we're prepared for it. We'll be right back after this quick break.

Starting point is 00:24:30 That's it for my take on the updates of the Ukraine-Russia war, so now a very sharp pivot to a reader question from Diane from Kansas. Diane asks, what was the east wing of the White House used for before it was demolished? What are we losing from not having it there? The White House can be broken down into three distinct parts, the east wing, the west wing, and the residence. The residence is obviously where the presidential family lives. It takes up a large part of the central portion of the building, the section that is most easily identifiable from the exterior. It's also known as the main house. This portion is home to reception rooms that are frequently open to public tours. So that's

Starting point is 00:25:10 the green, the blue, and the red rooms, the diplomatic reception room, and the state dining room. The West Wing is home to the administrative offices of the president and his staff, as referenced by the famous television drama of the same name. Now, the east wing of the White House is the section of the building least used by the president for daily tasks. It's also the newest section with the current structure added by President Franklin Delano Roosevelt in 1942. Before President Trump demolished it late last year, the swing house some of the building's ceremonial spaces, its guest entrance, and the offices for the First Lady's staff. It also contained things like a movie theater, and it sat above a presidential bunker. Although those original spaces have been lost, the functional losses won't be permanent.

Starting point is 00:25:57 A renovated bunker is part of President Trump's planned ballroom construction, as is a new visitor's entrance, new offices for the First Lady's staff, and even a new movie theater. The ballroom's architect also said he is considering additions to the building's West Wing in order to retain the White House of Symmetry. So that's it for today's reader question. I'm going to send it back over to Audrey for the rest of the pod. Thanks, Ari. Next up, we have one of our newer sections, The Road Not Taken. Our editorial team had a long discussion over what topic to cover today.

Starting point is 00:26:35 We knew we would cover the Trump-Shea summit on Monday and the primary results on Wednesday. Initially, we anticipated covering the White House ballroom on Tuesday, but pivoted after the anti-weaponization fund was announced by the DOJ. Today's choice gave us the most to consider. Ballroom funding was the obvious early frontrunner since we bumped it on Tuesday, but we decided that waiting to see how legislation advanced would be prudent. So what else was timely and relevant? Musk versus Altman, the Senate housing bill, the Ebola outbreak?

Starting point is 00:27:05 None seemed to be generating enough commentary to make them obvious choices for the tangled treatment. Minnesota banning prediction markets felt too niche, and the Raul Castro indictment felt premature. Ultimately, we agreed that it was time for the long overdue Ukraine update. And finally, we have our have a nice day story. For a male Kia parrot, being born without an upper beak is a disability that typically amounts to a death sentence for birds. For Bruce, it was only a challenge on his way to becoming the alpha male of his flock.

Starting point is 00:27:38 Researchers studying Bruce at Willowbank Wildlife Reserve in New Zealand found that he had developed a novel jousting technique, thrusting his lower beak at opponents across 36 recorded combative interactions and winning every one. He also had the lowest stress hormone levels in the group and was the only male groomed by other males.

Starting point is 00:27:56 Lead researcher Alexander Grabham said, behavioral innovation can help bypass physical disability. Good, Good, Good has the story and you can find the link in the show notes. All right, everybody, that's it for today's episode. A little bit of a harsh one today. But remember, you can see us in person for a little bit more lighter fare. We're going to be coming to Berkeley Springs, West Virginia, on June 13th and 14th. Again, Berkeley Springs, West Virginia, June 13th and 14th.

Starting point is 00:28:25 Meet the Tangle team. You can even register for a VIP dinner, and you can watch a live recording of our weekly podcast suspension of the rules. If you want tickets to that, go check out the show notes now, and come see us in Berkeley Springs, West Virginia, June 13th, and 14th. Until next time, take care of yourselves. Peace. Our executive editor and founder is me, Isaac Saul, and our executive producer is John Wall. Today's episode was edited and engineered by Dewey Thomas. Our editorial staff is led by managing editor Ari Weitzman with senior editor Will Kayback and associate editors Audrey Moorhead, Lindsay Canuth, and Bailey Saul.

Starting point is 00:29:03 Music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75. To learn more about Tangle and to sign up for a membership, please visit our website at retangle.com.

Tangle - Don’t forget about the war in Ukraine.

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