Tangle - Elections in Italy.

Episode Date: September 27, 2022

The elections in Italy and a question about talking to people who believe in conspiracies.You can read today's podcast here, today’s “Under the Radar” story here, and today’s “Have a nice day” story here.Today’s clickables: Quick hits (1:04), Today’s story (2:25), Right’s take (6:50), Left’s take (10:10), Takes from Italy (13:18), Isaac’s take (16:20), Listener question (19:05), Under the Radar (22:05), Numbers (22:50), Have a nice day (23:50)You can subscribe to Tangle by clicking here or drop something in our tip jar by clicking here.Our podcast is written by Isaac Saul and produced by Trevor Eichhorn. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75.Our newsletter is edited by Bailey Saul, Sean Brady, Ari Weitzman, and produced in conjunction with Tangle’s social media manager Magdalena Bokowa, who also created our logo.--- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/tanglenews/message Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages six months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at flucellvax.ca.

From executive producer Isaac Saul, this is Tangle. Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening, and welcome to the Tangle podcast, the place where you get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking, not all that hysterical nonsense you find everywhere else. I'm your host, Isaac Saul, and on today's episode, we are going to be talking about the elections in Italy, what they mean for the US, some perspectives from Italy, some perspectives from the right and left here. It's an interesting issue, something, you know, I know a little bit about Italian politics. I obviously know a good bit about European Union politics and what some of the stuff happening there means for us. But this was a fun one to put together. So before we jump in,

we'll start off, as always, with some quick hits. First up, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that President Biden's student loan relief program would cost $420 billion. Number two, Russian President Vladimir Putin granted citizenship to Edward Snowden, who fled the United States 11 years ago after sharing classified documents about its massive surveillance program. Separately, a gunman killed 15 people in a school shooting in Russia. Number three, Canada is dropping its COVID-19 and border restrictions beginning on Saturday. Number four, Hurricane Ian made landfall in Cuba as a Category 3 hurricane and is expected to hit the Tampa Bay area of Florida later this week. Number five, Apple began manufacturing its new iPhone 14 in

India, hoping to diversify its production capacity away from China. The last time Italy was led by a far-right politician, it was World War II, and his name was Benito Buscellini. Conservatives are celebrating a huge win in Italy after Sunday's election. The right will have a dominant role in the country's parliament, and this woman, Giorgia Maloney, will likely become Italy's first ever female prime minister. The victory immediately shifted Europe's geopolitics. The victory immediately shifted Europe's geopolitics. On Sunday, a Georgia Maloney appears to have formed a coalition to take the majority in Italy's parliament.

The coalition is considered a nationalist populist group of parties. Maloney's party, Brothers of Italy, received about 26% of the vote, the most votes in both houses of Italy's parliament. She campaigned on a mainstream conservative position and as a vocal opponent of lenient immigration policies, same-sex marriage, abortion, the European Union, and international bankers. A lifelong political activist and candidate, Maloney has relatively limited government experience, serving for three years as the Minister for Youth from 2008 to 2011. Now, she could become the first woman to serve as Italy's Prime Minister. Some context here, Italy was holding a snap election after the resignation of Prime Minister Mario Draghi on July 21st, which we covered in our special international edition. Draghi had overseen a big tent coalition of left-wing, right-wing,

and centrist parties. Draghi's tenure drew international acclaim, and Italy was dubbed country of the year by The Economist for its economic response to COVID-19. However, the prime minister who preceded Draghi pulled his party's support for the post-COVID economic aid decree, leading to the coalition's eventual demise. According to Euro News, Italy operates in what's called a bicameral parliamentary democracy, where general elections decide the composition of the lower house, the chamber of deputies, and the senate. The prime minister is the head of the government, but is not elected directly by the citizens. Rather, the prime minister is chosen by the new parliament and the president,

and presidents in Italy do not hold executive power, but are chosen in a secretive round of elections. Maloney's party, the Brothers of Italy, descended from the remnants of fascism and have been criticized as quote-unquote far-right. It will still be weeks until the new parliament is seated and a new government is formed, and it's hard to know how Italy's parliamentary makeup will shake out. In the last 77 years, Italy has had 69 different governing coalitions, and the government has built a reputation for being bureaucratic and ineffective. It's possible, if not likely, that Maloney's power and this current coalition may be fleeting. All this being said, the election does have some big implications. Maloney has the potential to

be an influential global figure. She is known for giving rousing speeches and she is sure to shake up the European Union. While she has remained steadfast in her support of Ukraine so far, many in her coalition express a strong reverence for Russian President Vladimir Putin. Her victory comes at a time when nationalist powers coalescing across Europe, with similar politicians winning seats of government or scoring strong showings in Sweden, Spain, and France. Maloney has recently distanced herself from her party's far-right background, condemning fascist leader Benetino Mussolini, whom she had praised in the past, and criticizing Hungary's Viktor Orban and France's Marine Le Pen.

Maloney enters at a time when voters' concerns seem tied most closely to the energy bills and cost of living, as it is with most of Europe right now. Her party has called for imposing a cap on natural gas prices and decoupling gas and electricity prices. Some European Union leaders have expressed worries that Italy may be the crack in the EU unity in sanctioning Russia, which has resulted in an energy war that has driven up prices across the continent. Today, we're going to take a look at some opinions from the right and the left here in America, as well as a couple of opinions from Italian writers. Then, my take. First up, we'll start with what the right is saying.

Many on the right say fears about Maloney are overblown and insist she must find a way to revive Italy's economy. Some argue that Maloney's being supported because she respects Italy's tradition. Others say there appears to be little reason to worry Maloney won't continue supporting Ukraine. The Wall Street Journal editorial board said voters finally got the conservative government they wanted in 2018. On economics, expect a conventional, for Italy, right-wing populist agenda that focuses on targeted tax cuts and welfare handouts rather than the Big Bang pharma reforms a different conservative leader is attempting in the United Kingdom, the board said. European worthies fret this lays the groundwork for a new

conflict between Rome and the European Union over budget rules. This is a concern with Italian government debt near 150% of GDP and no plan to stimulate economic growth. But the EU also has surrendered leverage it might have had by shielding Rome from market judgments. Large-scale purchases of Italian bonds by the European Central Bank have hemmed in the spread between German and Italian bonds, a benchmark indicator. On foreign policy, Ms. Maloney and her conservative allies aren't noticeably more pro-Ukraine than any other Italian politician regarding Russia's invasion, they said. But she also isn't noticeably less supportive,

and appears to feel bound by a consensus among voters to support sanctions against Russia. Ms. Maloney has followed other Italian conservatives' lead by promising a crackdown on illegal migration, perhaps including a naval blockade of Libya. That plan sounds implausible, but Italy is on the front line of a wave of legal immigration that started in 2015 and never fully stopped. If anyone in Brussels has better ideas for bringing the situation under control, Italians probably would be all ears. In the Washington Post, Henry Olson said fears about Maloney are overblown. Italy is not hungry, Olson said. It has a robustly free media and has been

a Western democracy for nearly 80 years. Moreover, Maloney's party has never embarked on a crusade against liberal democracy the way Mussolini or even Orban has. The Brothers' party doesn't want to end democracy. It wants to respect Italy's national traditions and restore the country's economic freedoms. Those twin concerns mark Maloney's rise and her appeal. She came to prominence when she proclaimed in 2019 that, quote, I am a woman, I am a mother, I am an Italian, I am a Christian. This social conservatism isn't rooted in the past. Rather, it is rooted in a sense that Italy's past is worthy of respect

and can form the foundation for its future, he said. The economic issues are also crucial to explaining her rise. Italy is a founding member of the Eurozone, but its economy has largely stagnated after adopting the euro in 2002. Since then, Italy's economy has never grown by more than 2% annually, except for the last year's post-pandemic bounce. It also never recovered from the 2008 financial crash. Unemployment has never dropped below 8% since then, and its real GDP per capita remains lower than it was in 2007. This has produced political upheaval,

of which Maloney and her party are the current beneficiaries. Alright, that is it for what the right is saying, which brings us to what the left is saying. Many warn about Maloney's anti-LGBTQ and anti-immigrant views. Some note that her party has its roots in World War II era fascism. Others say we need to keep a watchful eye on Italian democracy. In Vox, Ellen Ionis wrote about Maloney's years in the making rise. On the campaign trail, she emphasized her womanhood and motherhood, though she is not a feminist. She has also taken a hard line against immigration, suggesting that the Italian Navy patrol the Mediterranean

to keep migrants from arriving by sea, she wrote. Maloney's victory could portend rollbacks to minority rights, including the rights of women, LGBTQ people, she wrote. Maloney's victory could portend rollbacks to minority rights, including the rights of women, LGBTQ people, and migrants. Her Brothers of Italy party uses an insignia and slogan, Dio, Patria, Familia, or God, Country, and Family, which echo its fascist predecessors. Voter turnout appears to have reached historic lows, having just cleared 50% in the final hours of voting, she said. That's partly because the state of Italian politics has left many voters disaffected, disappointed, pollster Lorenzo

Pragliasco of Utrend told the Associated Press. Quote, they don't see their vote as something that matters, end quote. As Italy's new leader, Maloney will have to contend with a series of major issues, some of which, like immigration, a tax system overhaul, and judicial reform, have plagued Italy for years across many governments, seemingly without a tenable solution. The Washington Post editorial board said danger lurks after Italy's shocking election. There remains ample cause for concern about Miss Maloney, who is set to govern one of the world's largest economies despite her own modest credentials in government, the board said. Amid a drumbeat of anti-immigrant rhetoric, she warns darkly that ethnic Italians are in danger of replacement. She has advanced the far-fetched idea of naval blockade to stop unauthorized foreigners from reaching Italian shores. That's unlikely to work. It's also a

toxic echo of the fierce anti-Semitism of Mussolini, the World War II dictator whom Miss Maloney once openly admired. Her intolerance is also directed at LGBTQ people, for whom her government might make life more challenging in the only major EU country that has not legalized same-sex marriage. Framing her views as pro-family, she has vowed to block same-sex adoptions and surrogacy. Her party and its right-wing coalition partners include figures who might threaten free and fair elections if given their druthers. Many would emulate Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has gutted key aspects of that country's democracy, the board said. However, Ms. Maloney's bloc will lack the

votes in Italy's parliament to tamper with constitutional protections for Italian democratic institutions. The lurking danger of a Maloney government is to Europe's ability to withstand Mr. Putin's attempts to break Western and anti-Kremlin sanctions, using Europe's dependence on Russian energy exports as leverage. Italy's economy is chronically anemic, and many Italians will suffer as Moscow's pressure mounts. That will test Ms. Maloney's determination to hold the line. All right, that is it for takes from the left and the right here in the U.S., which brings us to a few takes from Italian writers. In the New York Times, Italian journalist Mattia Ferrarci said Maloney is extreme, but she's no tyrant.

Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is nearly double the historic average of 52,000 cases. What can you do this flu season? Talk to your pharmacist or doctor about getting a flu shot. Consider FluCilvax Quad and help protect yourself from the flu. average of 52,000 cases. What can you do this flu season? Talk to your pharmacist or doctor about

getting a flu shot. Consider FluCellVax Quad and help protect yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages six months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at fluselvax.ca. Italy into an electoral autocracy along the lines of Viktor Orban's Hungary. During the campaign, the center-left Democratic Party, brother of Italy's main opponent, obsessively invoked Hungary as Italy's destiny under Miss Maloney's rule. The contest, they repeated, was one between democracy and authoritarianism. In the end, the Democrats' anguished alarm for democracy failed to persuade voters. At an early reckoning, the party took 19% against the

brothers of Italy's 26%, he said. There are many reasons for that. One surely is that the picture they drew of Miss Maloney as a would-be tyrant taking an axe to Italian democracy and ushering in an era of illiberalism was unconvincing. For all the rhetorical radicalism and historic extremism of her party, the fact remains that it will not be operating in circumstances of its choosing. Tethered to the European Union and constrained by Italy's political system, Miss Maloney won't have much room to maneuver. She couldn't turn Rome into Budapest even if she wanted to. In the Wall Street Journal, Alberto Mangardi and Nicola Rossi, two political professors in Italy, asked if Maloney can revive the economy. Ms. Maloney insisted recently that the sustainability of public debt depends on

economic growth, they said. Her coalition's proposals include lower taxes on both labor and corporate profits, but these measures will be insufficient. Our think tank has been looking at entrepreneurial dynamism over the past century. Both in the U.S. and Italy, the net turnover of businesses is trending downward. In the U.S., except during the financial crisis, it's still positive. More businesses are being born than dying. But Italy has been negative since 2001, with 4% of businesses dying a year and only half as many being born. Historians remember Italy's economic miracle in the 1950s, they added. In 1953, GDP per capita was 30% higher than the peak reached in the preceding 20 years, and the country had 4 million more people than it did in 1939.

Italy industrialized rapidly, and exports grew from 8% of GDP in 1938 to 21% in 1965. From 2010 to 2018, exports were the only positive contribution to GDP, with other components of the economy shrinking. The Italian export companies that keep the country afloat are by and large the descendants of the 1950s, the short season in Italian history in which the government unleashed private enterprise. Doing so again requires a major deregulation and wholesale tax reform aimed at creating incentives for productivity. It's unclear that Italy's political class, including Miss Maloney, understands this.

All right, that is it for the left and the right and some views from Italy, which brings us to my take. Clearly, nationalism is ascendant in Europe, and it's no secret why. Many countries are facing immigration crises and economic fragility, and that mixture historically has a very common outcome. Nationalist leaders pillorying the elite, calling for immigration restrictions and rallying around tradition and birthright. Maloney's advantage in this election seemed to be that she was the only major candidate who had cleaved her association with the preceding administration. In that regard, it was an almost American result. We've been a nation desperate for change over the last 20 years, and that isn't a mood unique to the United States.

Maloney had the benefit of being able to say she was not one of the current people in office, she didn't agree with them, and she didn't want to be associated with them. The left and center parties were divided and fractious, and so she rose. By progressive American standards, I understand why Maloney is feared. She is staunchly anti-LGBTQ and unabashedly pro-life. But, as many others have noted, the cries of fascism strike me as pretty overblown. Maloney will be boxed in between the need to keep Europe happy or lose billions of dollars from the EU propping up Italy's economy, and to keep her right-wing coalition happy, which probably just means increasingly strict immigration policies. Italy's government is not going to collapse or become autocratic or get taken over by a

Mussolini-style authoritarian. More likely, this coalition will fold and be reborn again in the next two years, like most of the coalitions before it. Of course, there's nothing inherently wrong with running on religion, family, and country, a call that is appealing not just in Italy, but across the globe. It'll be Maloney's actual policies that are much more worth following. Chief among her obstacles will be finding a way to help the Italian economy grow. All the rousing speeches in the world can't substitute for results there, and I imagine her window of time to enact change and produce results won't be long. As it relates to the US, the election probably won't mean a whole lot. As Politico put it,

in terms of the issues the US cares about, keeping the anti-Putin coalition intact, and keeping Rome as a constructive force inside the EU, Maloney is either already on board or unlikely to make waves, end quote. The biggest international story in the world right now is the war in Ukraine, and Maloney has, to this point, maintained a pretty mainstream, pro-sanction, anti-Russian stance in that regard. More relevantly, she represents the nationalist, traditional, religious sentiment sweeping through Europe in the wake of the recent dominance by progressives and left-wing politics, an era we may be watching come undone in real time. Alright, that is it for my take, which brings us to your questions answered.

This one is from Francis in Linwood, Washington. Francis said, how does one respond to a family member who believes wild conspiracy theories from questionable sources at best? It's difficult to even listen to the rhetoric. An example, he asked one of our guests who is diagnosed with cancer if the diagnosis came before or after she was vaccinated. He believes that the COVID vaccine causes cancer and the government and the mainstream media is keeping that information from us. That's just the tip of the iceberg. Thanks for this question, Francis. I get a version of this question a lot, and honestly, it's a difficult one to navigate. There is a lot of research and debate about how to break people out of certain delusions or conspiracy theories. I frequently engage in

speaking to people who believe conspiracies, but I'm not an expert on the psychological research. What I can do is tell you what I try to do in similar situations. First, don't attack. I find that the best course of action initially is to maintain an open mind and an inquisitive posture. Ask open-ended questions, sincere questions. How would a vaccine cause cancer? What is the actual mechanism for that to happen? Who is telling you that happens? How might that person benefit financially from promoting that kind of a story? Do you know what cancer is and how it happens? Can you explain even how the vaccine works? Help them see their own blind spots.

Two, remember that we're all conspiracy theorists, kind of. Most people I know believe at least a few things they can't really prove. My joke in Tangle, which I stole from a reader, is that everyone should get one good conspiracy theory, maybe two if they're a really stable person. I believe, for instance, that the government is covering up contact with extraterrestrial life. I can't really prove that, but I have some good arguments I can make about it, and I like talking about it. Some of the same forces that make you 100% certain COVID vaccines don't cause cancer may be the forces that make your family member 100% sure they do. What would change your mind? 3. Don't try to prove a negative. Most conspiracy

theories are rooted in the idea that it's impossible to prove the conspiracy untrue. The burden of proof is and should be on the claimant. You may not be able to prove to me that aliens have never been here, but I am the one making the claim. I need to prove to you somehow that they have. 4. Just know when it's time to let it breathe. I've never talked a friend or family member out of an absurd belief in one sitting, and I've never been talked out of one on my own in one sitting. It takes repeated engagement, patience, time, and persistence. That is just the reality of it. And it may turn out

that they're onto something that the rest of us missed, which is why it's critical not to remain steadfast in your own views too. When you get an inch though, like maybe your family member conceding, maybe it isn't that likely a vaccine causes cancer, take the win and let that inch simmer. It may just grow into something bigger over time. Alright, next up is our under the radar section. Lumber prices have fallen back to their lowest levels in more than two years, bringing two by fours back to what they cost before the pandemic, according to the Wall Street Journal. The prices have come down about one third from a year ago and more than 70 percent from

their peak in March, around the time the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates to fight inflation. Prices exploded early on in the pandemic when Americans began remodeling homes en masse and two 2x4 prices nearly tripled. The latest prices are a sign of a cooling housing construction market, and Wall Street Journal has the story. There is a link to it in today's episode description. It is a paywalled link. Just a heads up. All right, next up is our numbers section. The deadlock race between GOP nominee Ted Budd and Democrat Sherry Beasley in North Carolina's Senate race is now 46 to 46, according to an internal Democratic poll. Republican Greg Abbott's lead over Democrat

Beto O'Rourke in the state's race for governor is now 51% to 44%, according to a Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation poll. Democrat Senator Patty Murray's lead over Republican Tiffany Smiley in Washington's Senate race is now 48.7% to 46.5%, according to a Trafalgar poll. Democrat John Fetterman's current lead over Republican Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania's Senate race is now 45-42, according to an Insider Advantage slash Fox 29 Philadelphia poll. Democrat Josh Shapiro's lead over Republican Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania's race for governor is now 52-37, according to an Insider Advantage Fox 29 Philadelphia poll. Alright, that is it for today's numbers section. And last but not least, our have a nice day story.

Have you ever worried about an asteroid hitting planet Earth? Well, yesterday we got some good news. NASA successfully collided a space probe about the size of a vending machine with a 525 foot wide asteroid named Demorphis. It was the first ever test of a planetary defense system. The asteroid was no threat to Earth, but NASA's DART system successfully made contact at 14,000 miles per hour and knocked it onto a new path about 6.8 million miles from our planet. In the coming years, the agency is going to track its trajectory and try to understand

how its intervention impacted the path. The $325 million mission was designed to see if NASA could successfully deflect asteroids that could actually one day pose a threat to life on Earth. NBC News has the story and there's a link to it in today's podcast description. All right, everybody, that is it for the podcast. All right, everybody, that is it for the podcast. As always, if you want to support our work, please go to readtangle.com slash membership and become a member or spread the word by texting Tangle to your friends,

giving us a five-star rating, posting about us on social media, whatever it takes. We are headed into midterm season and we need the help. We'll be right back here same time tomorrow. Have a good one. Peace.

Our podcast is written by me Isaac Saul and edited and produced by Trevor Eichhorn our script is edited by Ari Weitzman Sean Brady and Bailey Saul shout out to our interns Audrey Moorhead and Watkins Kelly and our social media manager Magdalena Bokova who designed our logo music for the podcast was produced

by Diet75. For more from Tangle, subscribe to our newsletter or check out our website at www.readtangle.com. Thanks for watching! trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is nearly double the historic average of 52,000 cases. What can you do this flu season? Talk to your pharmacist or doctor about getting a flu shot. Consider FluCellVax Quad and help protect yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages six months and older,

and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at FluCellVax.ca.