Tangle - Everything we missed (and an update).

Episode Date: November 10, 2022

We're covering everything that didn't make it into the newsletter yesterday, a reader question, and Isaac's thoughts on some of the election fraud claims from the last few days.You can read today's podcast here, and today’s “Have a nice day” story here.Read Isaac's twitter feed of election fraud claims here.You can subscribe to Tangle by clicking here or drop something in our tip jar by clicking here.Our podcast is written by Isaac Saul and produced by Trevor Eichhorn. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75.Our newsletter is edited by Bailey Saul, Sean Brady, Ari Weitzman, and produced in conjunction with Tangle’s social media manager Magdalena Bokowa, who also created our logo.--- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/tanglenews/message Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages six months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at flucellvax.ca.

From executive producer Isaac Saul, this is Tangle. Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening, and welcome to the Tangle Podcast, the place we get views from across the political spectrum. Some independent thinking without all that hysterical nonsense you find everywhere else. I'm your host, Isaac Saul, and on today's episode, we're going to be giving an update on the election, where things stand, some of the stuff that we missed from yesterday because we didn't have room, a little bit about some of the election fraud claims, which a lot of people have been asking me about, obviously, because I've covered that stuff a lot in the last. We will not be sharing opinions from the left and the right, so this is a little bit of a different newsletter podcast edition today. But we will be giving you

what I think is some really important information to go forward with. So with that, we'll jump in quick hits. First up, Kevin McCarthy, the Republican from California, officially announced his plans to run for Speaker of the House if Republicans win the majority. Number two, Russia announced plans to withdraw from the key Ukrainian city of Kursan. Number three, Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin, the Republican, penned a handwritten apology to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, the Democrat from California, for comments last month in which he made light of the attack on her husband. Number four, President Biden held a press conference yesterday to tout the unexpected Democratic strength in the midterms and reaffirm his intentions to run for a second term in 2024. Number five, the Supreme Court appears closely

divided in a case challenging the Indian Child Welfare Act of 1978, which makes it hard to remove Native American children from their tribes and heritage. All right, that is it for our quick hits. So first up, we'll start with a few updates on the big races everybody is watching. In the Georgia Senate race, it is now official. We are headed to a runoff. Neither Raphael Warnock, the Democrat, nor Hershel Walker, the Republican, were able to capture 50% of the vote, which by the election rules in Georgia means the two will face off in a December 6th runoff election. 49.4 percent of the vote went to Warnock and 48.5 percent went to Walker. And it's worth noting the Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver received two percent of the vote. In Arizona, we may not know who wins the Senate race between Democrat Mark Kelly and

Republican Blake Masters or who wins the gubernatorial race between Katie Hobbs, the Democrat, and Carrie Lake, the Republican, until Thursday night. That is when reporters and election experts in the state expect to see a huge batch of mail-in ballots that were hand-delivered to polling places on Tuesday get counted. In Maricopa County alone, there are an estimated 400,000 to 410,000 such ballots, according to local reporters. They include 17,000 ballots cast on election day yet to be counted, 239,000 early ballots left to process and tabulate, 143,000 early votes left to verify, and 7,885 estimated provisional ballots left to research. The early tallies of those ballots, which we may get as soon as tonight, and how they break for the candidates in the race, will likely give us a clear idea as to who is winning. Since yesterday's newsletter,

both races have moved decidedly in the direction of Arizona's Republican candidates. Lake is now considered a favorite to pull it out in the governor's race, while Masters is closing Kelly's lead in the Senate but still has a big hill to climb. In Nevada, the Senate race is still too close to call, but Democrats got some good news from John Ralston this morning, the legendary Nevada election reporter. Heading into the race, Ralston had predicted Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto would squeak past Republican Adam Laxalt. After the first wave of results came in, Ralston started to backtrack, joking that he wished he could delete his predictions due to high rural turnout that he thought would favor Laxalt. But last night, Ralston gave an update that there were about 110,000 mail-in ballots remaining. And if Cortez Masto continued to win them at the clip she has been, which is roughly 65%,

she'll win easily. If her margin decreases from 65-30 to 60-30, for instance, she would still win decisively, he said on Twitter. If it's 60-35, same. If it's 55-30, same. If it's 55-35, same. She wins in all those models. Buckle up. In other words, as it stands right now, Cortez Masto has the inside track. So what does this mean for the big picture? Well, Republicans have the inside track to a majority in the House of Representatives and can capture a Senate majority by winning two of the three races mentioned above. On top of that, they could still take the governorship in Arizona. So while the red wave never materialized, running the table in a few critical remaining races could salvage what looked like a very bad night just 24 hours

ago. Speaking of the House, Republicans should be able to win a House majority, but it is a lot closer than anyone expected. Here's how Dave Wasserman described the state of play. The NBC News House estimate is that Republicans will win 220 seats plus or minus 10 seats, meaning the fate of the House rests with the nine uncalled competitive races in California, six in New York, two in Nevada, two in Oregon, two in Arizona, two in Colorado, and a smattering of other states. Republicans have a slightly better than even chance of taking the House, but this could take more than a week to sort out, especially in slow counting California and Arizona, and could depend on recounts. If it weren't for GOP Representative Lee Zeldin's coattails in the New York governor's race,

Democrats might be favorites to hold onto their majority. So, since yesterday, we've gotten a few more important results from these races. Senator Ron Johnson, the Republican from Wisconsin, officially won re-election over Mandela Barnes, the Democrat, while Sean Patrick Maloney, the chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, officially lost in a stunning defeat to Republican Mike Lawler in his House race. In Oregon, Democrat Tina Kotek was declared the winner over Christine Drazen, the Republican, in a tight race that Republicans had hoped would turn into an upset. In Arizona, Eli Crane, the Republican, defeated Tom O'Halloran, the Democrat, and flipped the seat red. In Kansas, Governor Laura Kelly, the Democrat, won re-election. In New York,

Republicans Mark Molinaro and Anthony D'Esposito both pulled out House victories, while Democrats Matt Cartwright and Chris Deluzio both won their races in Pennsylvania. Derek Van Orden, the Republican, also flipped Representative Ron Kind's seat in Wisconsin. The GOP now holds 207 seats in the House to Democrats' 187. So far, not a single one of Cook Political's lean, likely, or solid seats has broken the opposite way, which, by the way, is why we use them so much in our reporting. Of their 36 toss-up races, Democrats have won 18, Republicans have won 7, and 11 are still too close to call. All right, so that is it for where things stand in the House and the Senate and in the election more broadly. We wanted to take some time today to also cover basically everything we missed

yesterday because there was a lot in yesterday's newsletter and we didn't actually get to cover all the results and sort of important narratives that were out there. So there were so many races on Tuesday, so many ballot initiatives, and so many storylines that it was just impossible to fit into one podcast. Here are some of the things that we didn't get to. First, it was a big night for abortion rights. Voters in California, Michigan, and Vermont all backed ballot measures that enshrined the right to abortion in state law. Meanwhile, Kentucky voters rejected a proposed amendment to the state constitution that stated that no constitutional right to abortion in state law. Meanwhile, Kentucky voters rejected a proposed amendment to the state constitution that stated that no constitutional right to abortion exists in the

state, a surprise victory for abortion rights in a red state. In Montana, a ballot measure to give infants born alive at any stage of pregnancy legal personhood and impose criminal penalties on health providers who don't act to keep them alive, even if they're non-viable, has not yet been decided. Democratic gerrymandering backfired. In New York, Republicans tried to extend their congressional map as far as they could, but in April, the New York State Court of Appeals ruled that Democratic leaders had violated the state constitution, then appointed a special master to replace the lines for this year's midterms. As a result, Democrats have lost Sean Patrick Maloney's seat, two seats in Long Island, and a competitive seat in upstate New York.

They could go from 19 Democrats and 8 Republicans this year to 15 Democrats and 11 Republicans next year, a swing that could ultimately decide the House majority. More favorable Democrat redistricting maps succeeded in Illinois and New Mexico, but similar attempts to spread their base across more districts in Nevada and Oregon have actually led to tight races that could also backfire. Meanwhile, Republican redistricting has led to big wins in non-competitive districts in Florida and Texas. However, Pennsylvania and North Carolina have provided a different story. Both states have approved non-partisan district maps. The North Carolina map has been challenged by Republican lawmakers to the Supreme Court, which is expected to consider the case before the 2024 election.

The Pennsylvania map approved this year has been enacted with much less controversy. As a result, each state's elections were as even as it gets. Democrats eked out a 9-8 majority in Pennsylvania House of Representatives, and the North Carolina House is split 7-7. Medicaid expansion also continued on Tuesday. Voters in South Dakota passed Constitutional Amendment D, which qualifies anyone making less than 133% of federal poverty level, which is about $18,000 per year, for Medicaid coverage. This is going to cover roughly 45,000 people in South Dakota. 40 states have now expanded Medicaid, and ballot initiatives have

won in all 11 states where the issue went to voters. That's Idaho, Maine, Montana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Utah, and now South Dakota. Drugs were on the ballot on Tuesday night too. Six states voted on drug policy Tuesday, and the results were split down the middle. Missouri and Maryland joined 19 other states in legalizing cannabis. In Colorado, psychedelic mushrooms were legalized. Meanwhile, legal cannabis failed in South Dakota, North Dakota, and Arkansas. Many candidates who questioned or rejected the results of the 2020 election won their races, but those in competitive races fared worse. Democrats pulled off a clean sweep of GOP candidates who denied the results of the 2020 election and were also candidates for

positions like Secretary of State or Governor in the swing states of Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Republican gubernatorial candidates Tudor Dixon in Michigan, Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania, Dan Cox in Maryland, Lee Zeldin in New York, and Tim Michaels in Wisconsin all lost. In the same vein, Democrats won nearly every race in which they helped fund a Republican candidate in the primary who they didn't think could win in the general. The Washington Post counted 13 primary races where Democrats backed Republican candidates they thought were too extreme to win against moderates. Only six won their primaries, and each one of them lost in the general election. However, plenty of candidates who questioned or outright denied the

2020 election results got into office. So far, at least 160 so-called election deniers have won races for the House, Senate, or key statewide offices, according to a Washington Post count. Young voters turned out on Tuesday night and probably saved Democrats. The Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement at Tufts, also known as CIRCLE, found that 63% of voters aged 18 to 29 supported Democrats in the midterm elections. Exit polls from CNN reported the same figure. In key swing states like Arizona, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, young voters supported Democrats at rates above 70%. Not only that, but young voters actually

showed up. The 2022 midterms marked the second highest young voter turnout in the U.S. in the last three decades, with 27% of young voters showing up in 2022 and 31% voting in battleground states. And yet, turnout this year is actually down compared to the historic high of 2018. We're up to 93 million house votes tallied and will surpass 100 million according to Wasserman, but will still fall well short of the 114 million cast in 2018. Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown.

When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is nearly double the historic average of 52,000 cases. What can you do this flu season? Talk to your pharmacist or doctor about getting a flu shot.

Consider FluCellVax Quad and help protect yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages 6 months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at flucellvax.ca. For what it's worth, the polls were also pretty good. As I wrote yesterday, polling averages in this year's midterms misled a lot of people,

particularly the narrative of an incoming red wave. But Nate Silver rightly pointed out that his polls-only model at 538 isn't looking too bad. Their forecast projected 50 Democratic Senate seats and 229 GOP House seats. We'll probably end up at 50 plus or minus one Dem Senate seats and 222 plus or minus five GOP House seats. Pretty good, Silver said on Twitter. Two themes appear to have driven the red wave narrative. Many reporters and pundits jumping on polling averages,

which included more partisan polls that showed Republican strength across the board, and two, a general belief that historical precedent, which says the party in the White House typically gets crushed in the midterms, would prevail. Even outfits like Real Clear Politics, which took some criticism for including too many outlier polls in their averages, did pretty well. According to the Wall Street Journal, Democrats performed about three points better than RCP's averages in the eight most competitive races for the Senate, right around most polling errors margin of error. Shockingly, slavery was on the ballot this week. Vermont voters passed a constitutional amendment explicitly prohibiting slavery. Tennessee voters banned all

forms of slavery in the state, Oregon voters removed language in the state's constitution allowing for slavery and involuntary solitude when used as punishment for a crime. In Louisiana, voters rejected a muddled amendment that was intended to clarify a ban on slavery in the state. If you're curious why these states needed to clarify that slavery is illegal, the AP has some more context and there's a link in today's episode description. A little clue, it's about prison labor. Some other odds and ends, despite Georgia's Senate race going to a runoff, Republicans cruised everywhere else in the state. They won races for Attorney General, Labor Commissioner, School Superintendent,

Secretary of State, Agriculture Commissioner, and Insurance Commissioner. Hershel Walker is the only Republican candidate statewide to not win his race yet. Meanwhile, Republican Liz Cheney endorsed two Democrats, Alyssa Slotkin in Michigan and Virginia's Abigail Spanberger, both of whom won. Democrats gained complete control of the governor's mansion and the state House and Senate in four states covering 30 million people. That's Michigan, Minnesota, Massachusetts, and Maryland. Republicans swept statewide races in Iowa for the first time and could win all four of the state's House seats. Republicans also won majorities on the Supreme Court in Ohio and North Carolina, giving them a leg up in future redistricting fights. Elsewhere, a Pennsylvania candidate won despite being dead. Illinois passed an amendment granting citizens the right to

collective bargaining and banned right-to-work laws, which allow workers to be exempted from union dues. In Arizona, voters passed a proposition to limit medical debt interest rates at 3%. Nevadans look primed to pass an amendment to implement ranked choice voting in open primaries. New Mexicans passed an amendment to fund pre-K education, and Nebraskans voted to lift the minimum wage from $9 to $15 by January of 2027. Meanwhile, in D.C., Washingtonians voted to phase out tipped minimum wage, meaning by 2026, workers who receive tips will also need to be paid the minimum wage. Voters in Oregon passed one of the strictest gun law measures in the country, while voters in California rejected

a measure to introduce online and in-person sports gambling. There were a number of races tied to crime as well, and in several of them, progressives prevailed. Perhaps most notably, voters in Minneapolis elected Mary Moriarty, a former public defender, to serve as their new prosecutor. She beat out a tough-on-crime opponent by over 10 points. Massachusetts voters also got rid of Thomas Hodgsgon, a Bristol County sheriff known as the Arpaio of the East, who became notorious for dangerous jail conditions. Some notables we missed from yesterday, Peter Welch became the first state senator born after World War II to be elected in Vermont. Becca Ballant became the first woman elected in Congress to Vermont,

which was the last state in the country to send a woman to Congress. Robert Garcia of California is the first LGBTQ immigrant elected to Congress, and James Rosner became the first out trans man elected to any state legislature in New Hampshire. All right, that is it for our notables and some updates on the election. I also wanted to briefly address some election fraud stuff. Given my experience reporting on allegations of election fraud, I've been tracking them during the last few days, and lots of readers have written in asking me what I've come across and what I've been seeing. I figured I'd use some space here today to address that. First, there just haven't been that many allegations of fraud, which is great news.

I put a few together in a Twitter thread, which you can find a link to in today's episode description, but they all fizzled out pretty quickly. The only one that actually got legs was in Maricopa County, where votes are still being counted in Arizona's races. From what we know, 20-30% of the tabulation machines in the county were having some kind of technical issues, so voters got stuck in long lines. This led to election workers informing voters in line that the machine tabulators were down and they had a few options. They could wait and put their ballot in a separate box to be tabulated later, or they could go to a different polling place. In a matter of minutes, some

right-wing commentators like Charlie Kirk were alleging crimes and suggesting people should go to jail. Trump said, quote, a lot of bad things, end quote, were happening and that Arizona was trying to delay people out of line. Carrie Lake, who's running for governor, falsely claimed that machines were only malfunctioning in Republican areas. Others alleged that Katie Hobbs, the secretary of state who's running against Lake for governor, was at fault for the malfunctioning machines. None of this was true. Hobbs is secretary of state, yes, but Arizona has a very unique, decentralized election system, and Hobbs' only job is to certify the statewide vote.

Counties run their own elections. While innuendo about purported fraud was spreading, technicians in Maricopa County, which, not that it should matter, has a Republican recorder and several Republicans on its election board, were running around the county, fixing the settings on machines that were having issues. Ultimately, a court rejected Republicans' attempt to keep the polling places open for three extra hours because they, quote, failed to include evidence in the supporting affidavits that any voter in Maricopa County was denied the right to vote as a result of tabulation errors in Maricopa County machines. Frankly, some of the claims were just lazy. By last night, former Trump lawyer Jenna Ellis was simply declaring that, quote, Maricopa County machines. Frankly, some of the claims were just lazy. By last night, former Trump

lawyer Jenna Ellis was simply declaring that, quote, Maricopa County attempted another cheat, end quote, even though they never proved the first cheat and there was no evidence of any cheating last night. In short, yes, there have been some claims, but none that got much attention and certainly none that required much investigation. Ironically, as the late votes come in and she closes in on her opponent, Carrie Lake, who has suggested past elections were marred by obvious fraud whenever late tallies were being counted, seems perfectly happy to accept her post-election day tallies this time around. She may very well win on the votes that have come in yesterday and get counted today

and tomorrow, which is unsurprising. Maricopa has a lot of Republicans voting. And while I share some voters' frustrations about long lines and certainly about delayed election results, it's not a sign of fraud. If Lake wins her race, she'll have an opportunity as governor to reform the system. Finally, it's also worth stating that, along with the lack of fraud evidence, this year's surprisingly close race is actually more proof that 2020 wasn't stolen, but simply a reflection of the national mood in the country, one that, based on all the polling and election results we have, appears to slightly favor center-left politics over the fringes on either side. All right, that is it for our updates on the election, which brings us to a reader question for today. This one is from Richard in Afton, Missouri. Richard said, why did Democratic Party

candidates almost universally have so much more funding than Republican ones this cycle, at least in the big Senate and governor races? Whatever the results today end up being, it's easy for me to imagine a lot of narrow Democratic Party wins being different if candidates like Blake Masters or Tudor Dixon or J.D. Vance had funding even remotely close to their rivals. Well, Richard, I'll start by questioning the premise of the question here, actually. According to Open Secrets, Republicans actually outspent Democrats by over 25% when it comes to federal candidates and political committees. Republicans spent about $4.6 billion to Democrats' $3.6 billion. Republicans also out-fundraised Democrats in governor's races, $1.1 billion to $823 million.

So, to start with, I think this is actually the opposite. Republicans outspent Democrats in this cycle, which is kind of shocking when looking at the results. However, in the battleground states, it is a lot more mixed. Open Secrets tracks outside money spent for and against each party. In Pennsylvania, an estimated $82.9 million of outside money was spent against Democrats, while $30.4 million was spent for Democrats. That compares to $12.3 million spent for Republicans and $66.6 million spent against Republicans. So by those totals, more money was spent for Democrats than for Republicans, but more money was spent against Democrats than against Republicans. So by those totals, more money was spent for Democrats than for Republicans, but more money was spent against Democrats than against Republicans. Ultimately,

the total figures are a little obscured here by the fact that Dr. Ives gave much of his own money to the campaign, which we'll talk about in our numbers section today. In Arizona, though, $17.9 million was spent for Democrats, while just $5.6 million was spent for Republicans. Meanwhile, $47 million was spent against Republicans, while $50.3 million was spent for Democrats, while just 5.6 million was spent for Republicans. Meanwhile, 47 million was spent against Republicans, while 50.3 million was spent against Democrats. Again, it's a mixed bag. One thing I will say, though, is that Republicans fought a lot over who to invest in. Donald Trump was sitting on hundreds of millions of dollars, and some people, including Fox News' Jesse Waters, have wondered what he's doing with all that money. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is already facing criticism for not spending more on Republicans who are narrowly losing, and there will be a lot of postmortems there. But no matter how you cut it, both sides

really spent an absurd amount of money on this cycle. And when it comes to who spent more, Republicans appear to have actually outpaced Democrats in the totals we have so far. outpaced Democrats in the totals we have so far. All right, that is it for our reader question, which brings us to our numbers section. The amount of money candidates and outside groups spent on the Pennsylvania Senate race alone is $373.6 million. The amount of his own money Pennsylvania Senate candidate Mehmet Oz spent on his campaign was $27 million. The amount of funding Democrat Val Demings received to run against Senator Marco Rubio in Florida was $72 million. The margin of victory Rubio had over Demings was 16.4%. The amount of money Democrats have already spent in the Georgia Senate runoff is $7 million. The percentage of all U.S. senators who will be named John or John

when John Fetterman is inaugurated in January is 10%, which is a stat I really love. All right, and last but not least, our have a nice day section. A truck driver from Greenville, Texas is being hailed as a highway angel after he stopped in his travels to administer aid to two drivers who were involved in a car accident. Tony Doughty was driving eastbound on Interstate 40 near Albuquerque when he witnessed a high-speed accident. Doughty watched a Jeep flip over before crashing as he was heading in the opposite direction. Instead of going on his way, he called 911, pulled his truck over, and ran across traffic with his EMT bag to go help. Good News Network

has the story about what he did. There's a link to it in today's episode description. All right, everybody, that is it for today's podcast. A quick reminder, tomorrow is Friday. Yes, we are doing a special Friday edition. No, there will not be a podcast version of it. If you want to get it, you need to go to readtangle.com slash membership and become a Tangle member to get that newsletter. Otherwise, you'll be hearing from us on Monday with, I assume, some election updates. Have a good one. Peace.

Our podcast is written by me, Isaac Saul, and edited and produced by Trevor Eichhorn. Our script is edited by Ari Weitzman, Sean Brady, and Bailey Saul. Shout out to our interns, Audrey Moorhead and Watkins Kelly, and our social media manager, Magdalena Bokova, who designed our logo. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet75. For more from Tangle, subscribe to our newsletter or check out our website at www.readtangle.com. We'll be right back. Travel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+.

The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is nearly double the historic average of 52,000 cases. What can you do this flu season? Talk to your pharmacist or doctor about getting a flu shot. Consider FluCellVax Quad and help protect yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages six months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and

allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at FluCellVax.ca.