Tangle - Gaza peace plan enters phase two.

Starting point is 00:00:00 From executive producer Isaac Saul, this is Tangle. Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening, and welcome to the Tangle podcast, a place we get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking, and a little bit of my take. I'm your host, Isaac Saul, and on today's episode, we're going to be talking about the Gaza ceasefire second phase. We are in it officially. I'm going to share some views from the left and right and the Middle East, and then I'm going to share. my take. Before you jump in a quick heads up, in case you missed it, a year ago, the Tangle team sat down and came up with this comprehensive list of metrics that we were going to use to evaluate Trump's second term in office. This was everything from traditional economic measures to his

Starting point is 00:00:57 follow-through on campaign promises to international standing. This past Friday, we evaluated those metrics as well as some pundant predictions about his presidency in a giant two-part edition. If you miss it, you can scroll back a couple episodes in our podcast feed and you will find it. We split up the duties as a team and did a readdown of it. I think it's a really, really comprehensive look at the first year of the Trump administration. So it's worth your time. All right, with that, I'm going to send it over to Will for today's main story, and I'll be back for my take. Thanks, Isaac.

Starting point is 00:01:36 All right, here are today's quick hits. Multiple outlets reported that Border Patrol commander Craig Bovino and some federal agents will leave Minneapolis following the killing of Alex Priddy on Saturday. Borders'ar Tom Homan will reportedly take over immigration and customs enforcement operations in Minnesota, while Bovino will return to his previous Border Patrol position in California. Separately, according to court filings disclosed on Monday, the Trump administration has limited its investigation of Priddy's death to a use of force review, which considers agents' tactics, but not whether they should face criminal charges.

Starting point is 00:02:16 Number two, the American Academy of Pediatrics recommended that children be vaccinated against 18 diseases, breaking with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's new guidance to vaccinate children against 11 diseases. Number three, President Donald Trump announced he is increasing tariffs on South Korean auto, lumber, and pharmaceutical imports from 15% to 25%, saying the country has failed to enact its trade agreement with the United States.

Starting point is 00:02:45 Number four, the Treasury Department said it canceled all of its contracts with the consulting firm Booz Allen Hamilton, alleging it failed to protect taxpayer data. One of the firm's former employees pleaded guilty in 2023 to felony charges for leaking hundreds of thousands of records, including President Trump's tax returns. Finally, officials in Bangor, Maine said that a crash involving a private aircraft on Sunday killed all six people on board. The officials disputed an initial federal aviation administration report on the incident that found eight people were on board and seven had died.

Starting point is 00:03:23 We do have some breaking news out of Gaza, and I did want to share this live look of the Israel-Gaza border as the United States has announced that it is moving forward to the next phase of the Gaza ceasefire plan. That involves disarming Hamas, rebuilding, and daily governance. On January 14th, the Trump administration announced the start of phase two of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. White House Special Envoy, Steve Whitkoff, said that the second phase will transition from, quote, ceasefire to demilitarization, technocratic governance and reconstruction, including the full demilitarization and reconstruction of Gaza. On Thursday, President Donald Trump formally launched the Gaza Board of Peace, initially presented as a transitional body to oversee Gaza's reconstruction.

Starting point is 00:04:25 However, the board's charter has since been expanded to cover a broader mandate for peace globally, raising questions about how it will interact with the United Nations. In early October, Israel and Hamas agreed to a 20-point peace plan for Gaza presented by President Trump. Phase one of the deal required the return of all living and deceased hostages held by Hamas, the return of approximately 2,000 Palestinians imprisoned by Israel, and a limited retreat from Gaza by the Israeli military. On Monday, the Israeli military announced it had recovered the remains of the final hostage held in Gaza, completing one of the key provisions of Phase 1.

Starting point is 00:05:04 While Israel and Hamas each accused the other of violating the ceasefire at points during phase 1, and hundreds of Palestinians were killed in Israeli airstrikes, according to local officials, violence in the strip has significantly decreased. Furthermore, the UN has reported that humanitarian conditions are improving, with 100% of Gazan's basic food needs being met as of January. Trump's Board of Peace will oversee a Palestinian technocratic government, the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza, responsible for the day-to-day governance of the strip. Ali Shath, a former deputy minister of transportation in the Palestinian Authority, will lead the government, whose core initial focus will be restoring public services and rebuilding

Starting point is 00:05:51 civil institutions. Separately, on January 16th, the White House announced an executive board to, quote, operationalize the Board of Peace's vision. The appointed members are Whitkoff, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner, former British Prime Minister, Tony Blair, Apollo Global Management CEO Mark Rowan, World Bank Group President Ajay Banga, and Deputy National Security Advisor Robert Gabriel. On Thursday, President Trump held a signing ceremony for the Board of Peace, attended by 20 of its member nations in Davos, Switzerland. Seven countries, including France and the United Kingdom, notably declined Trump's invitation to join the board, while Canada's invitation was rescinded.

Starting point is 00:06:39 European leaders have expressed concern about the board's expanded mission, which reportedly calls for, quote, securing enduring peace in areas affected or threatened by conflict, end quote, and its potential to undermine the United Nations. Many have also questioned Russian President Vladimir Putin's invitation and Trump's $1 billion asking price for a permanent seat. Trump has criticized those who declined his invitation and threatened to impose 200% tariffs on French wines to punish French President Emmanuel Macron for his decision and his criticism. Today we'll offer perspectives from the right, left, and writers in the Middle East about the next phase of the Gaza ceasefire and Trump's Board of Peace. Then executive editor Isaac Saul

Starting point is 00:07:25 gives his take. We'll be right back after this quick break. Here's what the right is saying. many on the right say the board offers a better alternative to the United Nations. Others worry that Trump is already looking past Gaza. In the New York Post, Douglas Murray wrote, Trump's new Board of Peace is necessary because the UN has failed again and again. Countries like France and Britain are refusing to sign on to the president's initiative. They complain that there are countries on the board they do not approve of, and that there is a risk that it could prove a rival organization to the United Nations.

Starting point is 00:08:18 It is true that the idea of Vladimir Putin or the dictator of Belarus being on the board is a worrying sign. But if the board can be a counter to the UN, then good. In order for peace to break out, Hamas needs to be disarmed. And that's where the really big problem of the UN creeps in. I've witnessed plenty of UN peacekeeping efforts for myself over the years. And they have a huge problem. mainly the fact that the last thing most UN peacekeeping forces want to do is fight. To date, the answer in the region each and every single time has been the same, Israel and America.

Starting point is 00:08:55 By appointing himself chairman of the peace board, Trump has shown that he is committed to the peace plan that is in place. By inviting regional actors to join him, he has shown that for once it will not just be Israel and America that are expected to police the Middle East. In National Review, Noah Rothman warned against mission creep. Trump's approach has helped unlock new possibilities for a prosperous and stable Middle East, and the Board of Peace could lay a new foundation on which to build an alternative to the social contract that is so far prevailed in the region. Or at least it might if the Board of Peace were still focused on Gaza. It's not.

Starting point is 00:09:35 It seems increasingly that the Board, as Trump envisions it, seems to regard Gaza as too small a project. To hear the president and his allies speak of it, it is now a United Nations in miniature, one under the president's control. The board will not become a counter to the UN if it preserves the UN's fatal flaw, which is that it is primarily composed of tin pot autocracies, socialistic backwaters, and solicitous developing nations, few of which are invested in the preservation of the U.S.-led global order. The Board of Peace and the institutions it was established to oversee hold much promise. But the president and his allies need to be more circumspect about what it can achieve or even what its goals should be. Now here's what the left is saying.

Starting point is 00:10:34 Many on the left are critical of the board, viewing it as a vehicle for corruption. Some note the flaws of Trump's approach, but say he could be key to lasting peace in the region. In common dreams, Jeffrey D. Sacks and Sybil Ferris argued every nation in the world should reject Trump's absurd and dangerous Board of Peace. The so-called Board of Peace being created by President Donald Trump is profoundly degrading to the pursuit of peace and to any nation that would lend it legitimacy. This is a Trojan horse to dismantle the United Nations. It is, to put it simply, a pledge of allegiance to Trump, who seeks the role of world chairman and the world's ultimate arbiter. The BOP will have as its executive board, none other than Trump's political donors,

Starting point is 00:11:22 family members, and courtiers. If the charade of representatives isn't enough, nations will have to pay $1 billion for a permanent seat on the board. Any nation that participates should know what it is buying. It is certainly not buying peace or a solution for the Palestinian people. For any nation, participation on the board of peace would be strategically foolish. Joining this body will create long, last,

Starting point is 00:11:47 lasting reputational damage. Long after Trump himself is no longer president, a past association with this travesty will be a mark of poor judgment. In the forward, Dan Perry asked if the board is just another Trump scam or a real move toward Middle East peace. It would be a mistake for any country to put its security in the hands of a mechanism personally controlled by Trump. Such a structure, with power concentrated in the hands of one man who would oversee all finance. and be able to effectively veto any decision, is incompatible with constitutional government, transparency, and the rule of law. All of which makes the Board of Peace,

Starting point is 00:12:28 whose members so far mostly include Trump cronies, plus, amusingly enough, the always amenable ex-British Prime Minister Tony Blair, a dead letter as a framework for strengthening the world order. As a global architecture, the Board of Peace is vulgar, unsurious, unworkable, and possibly outright dangerous. and yet I hesitate to fully condemn it for one reason, Gaza. Trump is driven by a sense of ownership.

Starting point is 00:12:55 He remains focused when a project feels like his, and the Middle East is such a project. If the Board of Peace appears to be key to sustaining his sense of ownership, and if it keeps pressure on regional actors, maintaining momentum toward dismantling Hamas's grip on Gaza, then it may be useful, even if its structure is indefensible. And now here's what Middle East is, writers are saying. Some Israeli writers see Trump's plan as flawed but workable. Some Palestinian writers

Starting point is 00:13:27 say peace cannot be imposed by outside actors. In Wynet, Ben-Jor Yemeni wrote, Give Trump's Gaza Vision a chance, even if the odds are long. Trump has already delivered what many considered miracles. Without him, there would have been no ceasefire. The war of attrition would have dragged on. Each week we would have counted our dead. Living hostages would have continued to suffer in subhuman conditions, and it is doubtful how many would have survived. At the same time, it is impossible to ignore the fact that Trump ushered Qatar and Turkey in through the front door and elevated them to central players in the Middle East. There's also concern that Hamas will remain a central actor in Gaza. Israel should bite its lip and avoid positioning itself as the spoiler of Trump's vision,

Starting point is 00:14:15 whose chances of realization are not high. Over the past two years, because of an unwise policy, Israel has repeatedly lost the blame game. Why not only remain silent, but actively support the vision and do everything possible to advance it? Because if it is realized, including the demilitarization of Gaza,

Starting point is 00:14:35 it would be extraordinary. In ordinary times, we would say the odds are negligible. But these are different days. In Al Jazeera, Reithat Ibrahim said, said, peace boards and technocrats won't stem out Palestinian resistance. The problem with the present setup and Israel's insistence on no Hamas, no fatah, is that they reflect a profound ignorance on the fabric of Palestinian society, its politics,

Starting point is 00:15:02 and its history. The idea that a Palestinian political entity can be created by outside forces and fully integrated into the occupation to manage Palestinian affairs is unrealistic. Over the past 77 years, various Palestinian national movements and revolutions have emerged, united by a single common denominator, the rejection of Israeli colonial presence. Legitimacy matters. It is something that cannot be created by foreign councils or Israeli-funded militias. That is because legitimacy in Palestine is derived from resistance, which ties national history and identity together. Any attempts to bypass this reality is doomed to failure, as it would only turn Gaza into a zone of permanent chaos, internal conflicts, and comprehensive security collapse. It would also shatter Trump's legacy as a dealmaker and expose the present arrangement as nothing more than a political spectacle to cover up the fallout of an Israeli-executed genocide.

Starting point is 00:16:04 All right, that is it for what the right, left, and Middle East writers are saying. I'm going to pass it back over to Isaac now to read his. take. All right, that is it for the left and the writer saying, which brings us to my take. I honestly don't know what to think. A few weeks ago, when writing about the things we got right and wrong in 2025, we revisited this peace plan. I was pretty despondent. From my vantage point, this ceasefire has been in name only. From October through December, Israel reportedly violated the ceasefire hundreds of times, including a single day when it killed over a hundred civilians and militants. Four Israeli soldiers and some of 480 Palestinians have been killed since the

Starting point is 00:16:56 ceasefire went into effect, according to Reuters. Extremist Israeli settlers continue to escalate land grabs in the West Bank, often beating or killing Palestinians before forcing them from land they've owned for generations. Meanwhile, several high-profile terrorist attacks have been perpetrated against Israelis inside Israel, and the government has justified every strike in Gaza since October by claiming provocation, including vague assertions of suspicious activity. In essence, it was more of the same. Conflict with a major power imbalance and continued suffering in Gaza. Perhaps worse yet, the public and global focus on the issue has faded.

Starting point is 00:17:33 International stories about Australia, Iran, Venezuela, Greenland, and Ukraine have supplanted a focus on Gaza. And this is the first issue we've dedicated to the conflict since October. The only encouraging note I had during that gap in coverage is what I said in our 2025 review, that Hamas had returned all but one hostage while Israel had turned over thousands of Palestinian prisoners and reduced its control of Gaza to 53 percent, all conditions of the first phase of the peace deal. But I did not expect this to last, given that the ceasefire looked less like a break in the cycle of violence and more like a continuation of what I called an ethnic cleansing last May. This war has challenged my Zionism and many of my previously held views about

Starting point is 00:18:15 Israel. And yet, it holds. Somehow, Israel and Hamas appear to be headed for phase two. Inside the strip, the United Nations reports that some 100% of Gazans basic food needs are now being met for the first time since 2023. Israel is preparing to reopen Gaza's border with Egypt, allowing Gazans who fled during the war to return home and those in need of urgent medical care to be evacuated. Just four Israeli soldiers have been killed in Gaza since October 10th, and all the dead or alive are back in Israel. And in Tel Aviv's hostages square, the clock that was counting the days since the hostages were taken has finally been turned off, a powerful symbol that the national shift toward healing has begun. Now, Baroque Hashem, it may also be time for Palestinians

Starting point is 00:19:04 to heal. In the past, I've criticized the Trump administration's unnecessary blow-it-up attitude toward any kind of reform. My position, for a long time, has been that many of our foreign policy structures are actually working pretty well, and we shouldn't totally destroy things that require some moderate changes. That was the position from which I criticized Pete Hegsteth's nomination. We didn't need someone to reset our unbelievably powerful military after decades of peace on our own shores. We needed someone to reduce bloat and usher in next generation technologies. Similarly, I've also argued that we don't need to blow up NATO, an alliance that has served our global security well for decades. We just need to.

Starting point is 00:19:45 ask more of our allies. Yet, as I watch the Gaza peace plan unfold, I'm realizing that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict could actually be a perfect use case for Trump's blow-it-up mindset. The Gaza Board of Peace has become an obvious transparent ruse to give Trump more power to shape and profit from the global world order, and its participants alone disqualify it as a serious international power broker. At the same time, it's just the kind of wild Trump ploy that could knock down a rotting edifice and unearth some gold. Let me give you an example. When I read pro-Israel writers criticizing Arab partners like Turkey getting a seat at the table or read concerns in the Jerusalem post about Hamas seeking a role for its police force in the new Palestinian administration of Gaza,

Starting point is 00:20:32 my thought is good. The West cannot simply parachute into Gaza and determine who its leaders and what its future will be. The Palestinian people have to drive those decisions, and that means having Palestinian and Arab representation that meets this moment. Trump's fervent pro-Israel approach since he entered office gives him a lot of goodwill to spend here. This is best illustrated by writers like Ben Joriyomini under what Middle East writers are saying, who call on Israelis to give Trump's Gaza vision a chance, even though that vision contains what would have been poison pills under any past U.S. administration. Many Israelis recognize that Trump helped get them to this point, and if he is insisting on Arab

Starting point is 00:21:12 inclusion, then that's just a prerequisite they'll have to accept if they genuinely desire a lasting peace. Conversely, Palestinian and Arab writers criticize Trump's approach for giving Israel in the West too much power, or as Rafat-Ibrahim put it under what Middle East writers are saying, peace boards and technocrats can't stem the Palestinian resistance. But that same Palestinian resistance has kept whittling down their leverage year after year after year. So is this really a bad thing? Again, I read this and I think, good. Both sides being disgruntled about Gaza's transitional administration is actually not a bad thing. No lasting solution would result in one side being perfectly happy.

Starting point is 00:21:53 Consider this. Just to clean up the rubble in Gaza will require an estimated three years, then another decade or more to rebuild it. Temporary governance structures will have to last at least that long, and building them will require difficult compromise from both sides. Of course, the Board of Peace's early days have not been great. For instance, Trump's plan includes openings for him to blanket Gaza with his own hotels and profit from an economic boom there. Furthermore, Jared Kushner is becoming the face of the U.S. plan for Palestinian statehood.

Starting point is 00:22:26 Kushner is Trump's son-in-law, a civilian without a formal role in the administration, and a lifelong friend of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The self-dealing and the appointment of Kushner to oversee reconstruction is absurd on its face. And yet, At the same time, at least Kushner has a plan. He has put forward a clear vision for the day after the weapons are laid down, one that Israel and the United States never laid out. And it's not as if the vision is some hellscape of bondage and poverty and oppression. Gaza is one of the most educated places on earth,

Starting point is 00:23:01 beautifully situated on the Mediterranean and abundant and natural resources, and before the war, the Palestinian people had already turned parts of the strip into coal. culturally rich and economically vibrant areas. It's situated in a region known for its incredible ability to build. And Trump's plan appropriately envisions a Palestinian future in that spirit. Is it really so bad to dream that future into existence? Even if you believe that the last two years have constituted a genocide or that Trump's interests in Gaza is solely for his self-dealing or that neither Hamas nor Netanyahu can be trusted, is this really such an immoral, horrifying path forward? is this a plan worth dismissing on its face?

Starting point is 00:23:41 When this peace plan was first rolled out, I gave Trump his kudos. I argued that it was well thought out, that it had some novel elements and that it included important carrots and sticks for both sides to get them to agree. Violence has continued, yes, but they did agree. A few weeks ago, I did not see a path forward, despite incremental progress, and yet we're here now, with phase one all but completed, however, tumultuously. Maybe I'm a desperate optimist. but I can't help but feel the hope creep back in,

Starting point is 00:24:11 and the Trump administration deserves credit. All my reservations aside, about the violence during the ceasefire, the potential for corruption, the openings for self-dealing, the tenuous nature of whatever this new administrative state is, the truth is that I'm exhausted. I'm defeated by the last decade of conflict

Starting point is 00:24:27 and so many failed attempts at reconciliation and so much hope dashed in moments of unrelenting hatred and killing. So I'm having a hard time mustering up resistance to a novel framework that I've, always thought had some promise and that now actually seems to be working. The ball is moving in the right direction. And though it may still be quite far out, a peaceful future may finally be in sight. We'll be right back after this quick break. All right, that is it for my take, which brings us to

Starting point is 00:25:08 your questions answered. This one is from Miles in Troula Vista, California. Miles said, I get the tangles going to criticize Trump and ICE, but why are you silent on things like former CNN anchor Don Lemon storming a church with a bunch of anti-ice protesters. I'd like to hear if that's okay with Tangle. Okay, to cut to the chase. No, that kind of protesting is not okay with me. In fact, a couple years ago, I wrote a whole edition about how protesters aren't always right, describing a lot of methods that I didn't think made for effective protest.

Starting point is 00:25:40 I didn't include this at the time, but I'd definitely add storming a place of worship as a bad way to get your message across. I know that if a bunch of people busted into my synagogue while I was in prayer, I'd feel shocked and cornered, and I sympathize with the worshippers who had their Sunday prayers disturbed. That said, I do have a few caveats to note.

Starting point is 00:26:00 First, I don't think it's fair to call us silent. As much as I'd like to, we can't cover all the important stories that break every day. We cover four major stories in a week, and around the time of this incident, we were writing about threats to invade Greenland, Trump's health care plan and Trump's housing affordability proposal, all stories with national implications. One could also accuse me of being silent on Representative Max Frost, the Democrat from

Starting point is 00:26:24 Florida, being assaulted and threatened with deportation at a film festival. But it's another one of those stories that's jarring, but we don't really have time for it to cover. Second, I haven't had a chance to share my broader thoughts on anti-ice protest methods, but doing things like following civilian cars that look like vehicles ISIS using, then demanding civilians prove they aren't federal agents, it crosses a line for me. I actually have spoken out about that on X, though not entangle. Finally, my take on this issue. Lemon followed along with the agitators, and he seems sympathetic to their cause, which I don't think is proper conduct for a journalist acting in the capacity of a neutral observer. But it is also a stretch to say he participated in the protest. That's not some

Starting point is 00:27:10 flimsy distinction either. It has direct legal implications. Members of the press are provided latitude to cover events without being charged. Under First Amendment precedent, often citing cases like Brandenburg v. Ohio, N.A.A.C. v. Claiborne Hardware, you can't be charged unless you actively aid direct or incite the illegal conduct. That's why a federal magistrate tossed out the charges against Lemon when the Justice Department indicted the protesters. All right, that is it for your questions answered and my take. I'm going to send it back to Will for the rest of the pod. I'll see you guys tomorrow. Have a good one. Peace. All right. Thank you, Isaac. Here's today's Under the Radar Story. On Tuesday, Real Clear Opinion

Starting point is 00:27:57 Research and Emerson polling released the results of a new poll showing bipartisan support for primary reform in the United States. 71% of voters said they support requiring states to hold open primaries, which allow all voters to participate, regardless of whether they are affiliated with a political party. The results were consistent across partisan groups, with 79% of Democrats, 70% of independents, and 65% of Republicans in support. Furthermore, a majority, 59%, said party primaries contribute to political division, and open primaries were the top reform that respondents said would reduce political polarization. Unite America has this story and we'll put the link to it in today's show notes. Finally here is today's Have a Nice Day story. In late December, Dave Wynn was leaving his

Starting point is 00:28:51 company's Christmas party in Ottawa, Ontario and was struggling to find a ride service to take him home. After walking for 20 minutes, he finally connected with an Uber. The driver, Chance Niro Mugabeau, came to Canada from Rwanda, and Wynne learned that he had never done any winter activities despite living there for eight years. Win resolved to change that. And a few days later, they reconnected and went to boggaining at a local hill. Quote, I never get time to just have fun, just focusing, just working, money. So on that time, meeting with him, it was just really fun.

Starting point is 00:29:25 Nira Mugabu said, the Ottawa citizen has this story and some great pictures, and we'll put the link to it in today's show notes. All right, that is it for today's edition. Thanks as always for listening and being here with us. And we'll talk to you tomorrow. Peace. Our executive editor and founder is me. Isaac Saul and our executive producer is John Wohl.

Starting point is 00:29:45 Today's episode was edited and engineered by Dewey Thomas. Our editorial staff is led by managing editor Ari Weitzman with senior editor Will Kayback and associate editors, Audrey Moorhead, Lindsay Canuth, and Bailey Saul. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75. To learn more about Tangle and to sign up for a membership, please visit our website at reetangle.com.

Tangle - Gaza peace plan enters phase two.

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