Tangle - Good news on the economy?

Episode Date: January 31, 2024

The latest economic news. In the fourth quarter of 2023, the U.S. economy grew much more rapidly than expected while inflation continued to slow. The Commerce Department said the U.S. has avoided the recession many forecasters thought was inevitable, and in 2023 the economy grew faster than any other advanced economy in the world.You can read today's podcast ⁠⁠here⁠⁠, our “Under the Radar” story here, and today’s “Have a nice day” story here.You can also check out our latest YouTube video about misinformation and fake news that has spread like wildfire in the three months since Hamas’s attack on Israel and the subsequent fighting in Gaza here.Today’s clickables: A quick note (1:00), Quick hits (2:07), Today’s story (3:54), Right’s take (6:30), Left’s take (10:22), Interview with Kyla Scanlon (13:15), Isaac’s take (22:31), Listener question (27:36), Under the Radar (30:43), Numbers (31:41), Have a nice day (32:42)You can subscribe to Tangle by clicking here or drop something in our tip jar by clicking here. Are you a student interested in journalism, politics, and media? Know someone who is? We’ve opened applications for Tangle’s college ambassador program and are looking for engaged, enthusiastic college students to represent Tangle on their campuses. Applications will be open from January 23-February 4, and the program will run through the spring semester. If you or someone you know is interested, we are accepting applications here.Email Will Kaback at [e-mail] with any questions!Take the poll. We’re going to replicate Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index with our readers. What do you think about the economy? Let us know!Our podcast is written by Isaac Saul and edited and engineered by Jon Lall. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75. Our newsletter is edited by Managing Editor Ari Weitzman, Will Kaback, Bailey Saul, Sean Brady, and produced in conjunction with Tangle’s social media manager Magdalena Bokowa, who also created our logo.--- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/tanglenews/message Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages six months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at flucellvax.ca.

From executive producer Isaac Saul, this is Tangle. Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening, and welcome to the Tangle podcast, a place you get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking, and a little bit of my take. I'm your host, Isaac Saul. It is Wednesday, January 31st. February is almost here. The first month of 2024 is flown by. Today, we're going to be talking about some economic news, some positive economic news. For once, we've covered inflation so many times in Tangle, and today we have a little bit, I think, positive news, some positive economic sentiment. We're going to talk about what it means politically

for the president, what kind of signals we're getting, what the good news is, what the bad news is, all that good stuff. A quick heads up before we jump in. Yesterday, a chunk of Tangle readers and some listeners, I believe, too, got our newsletter and our podcast later than usual. There's been a big update to Gmail and the way they're processing incoming emails, which means we've had to change the way we send emails. It's a very complicated, technical thing. I don't even really totally understand it. But the upshot is that our newsletters are probably going to be a little bit late, maybe even three or four hours late today also,

maybe tomorrow too. But the issue is supposed to resolve itself after we send a new batch of emails over the next day or two. So I apologize that that happened for many of you yesterday. We got a lot of emails about it. Some people got the email as late as 8 p.m. The podcast should be out at a normal time. Hopefully, you're listening to this at a normal time today, but I just want to let you know. So if that happens, that's why that is happening,

and it should be resolved soon. All right, with that out of the way, let's jump in with some quick hits. First up, shortly after midnight, Republicans on the House Homeland Security Committee approved two articles of impeachment against Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. The vote now goes to the full House. Number two, UPS announced it is cutting 12,000 jobs after reporting a 7% drop in total shipping volume in Q4. Number three, Hamas is said to be considering a three-phase ceasefire deal in Gaza in exchange for releasing most of the remaining hostages. The deal does not include an Israeli withdrawal from the territory. Number four, an Illinois state board voted 8-0 to keep Donald Trump on its primary ballot, rejecting an eligibility challenge

under the insurrection clause of the 14th Amendment. And number five, Russian-Ukraine exchanged 195 prisoners of war, according to the Russian Defense Ministry. The U.S. economy had a robust end to 2023 with the gross domestic product exceeding expectations. The Commerce Department reports GDP rose by 3.3 percent in the fourth quarter. That's compared to just over two and a half percent in the final three months of 2022. The economy grew 3.3 percent in the final three months of 2022. The economy grew 3.3 percent in the final three months of 2023. For the year, a robust two and a half percent fueled by strong consumer spending and hiring. Today's numbers smashing expectations. We are talking about interest rates, which are at a 23 year high. The Federal Reserve wraps up a twoday policy meeting later today. Officials just might give us a hint on when we can expect some relief from those high interest rates.

In the fourth quarter of 2023, the U.S. economy grew much more rapidly than expected, while inflation continued to slow. The Commerce Department said the U.S. has avoided the recession many forecasters thought was inevitable, and in 2023, the economy grew faster than any other advanced economy in the world. Gross domestic product, a measure of all the goods and services a country produces, increased in the United States by a 3.3% annualized rate last quarter. Wall Street analysts had estimated it would grow by 2% in the final three months of the year. Meanwhile, unemployment and jobless claims remain low, while wages are growing across many sectors. Over both the last two quarters, the core personal consumption expenditures price

index has come in at exactly the Federal Reserve's target of 2% year-over-year inflation. Whichever way you slice it, this report caps a year of stellar economic growth performance, particularly with the backdrop of the Fed's aggressive monetary policy tightening cycle, Olu Sonola, the head of U.S. regional economics at Fitch Ratings in New York, said. The momentum of economic growth into 2024 is looking very good, end quote. Then on Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund upgraded its forecast for global economic growth based on positive signals from the U.S. and China. The IMF cited a faster-than-expected easing of inflation in the United States and posited that the so-called soft landing and

easing of inflation without a major recession was in sight. The global economy continues to display remarkable resilience, with inflation declining steadily and growth holding up. The chance of a soft landing has increased, IMF's chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gorinches has said. We are very far from a global recession scenario. In tandem with the latest news, economic sentiment has begun to improve. According to the Consumer Sentiment Index measured by the University of Michigan, consumers are viewing the economy 13% more optimistically than they have since 2021. The number of job openings rose slightly to 9.03 million in December, a sign employers are still looking to hire, despite news about layoffs.

The latest economic news comes at a pivotal moment for President Joe Biden, who consistently polls behind Republican challenger and former President Donald Trump on the economy. Today, we're going to break down some arguments from the right and the left about the latest numbers and the economic mood of the country, then my take. We'll be right back after this quick commercial break. First up, we'll start with what the right is saying. The right largely dismisses the notion that the economy is benefiting the average American and criticizes the media's framing of the latest economic numbers. Some concede that the economy is on the right track,

but question whether Biden's economic policies will keep it there. Others say that out-of-control government spending is disguising a bleak economic outlook. In the Washington Examiner, J.T. Young argued that Biden and Bidenomics are out of touch. What President Joe Biden fails to see about the economy is where most people live. The administration continues to insist on lauding an economy that is squeezing America's workers. By touting decidedly mediocre past growth and hoping for future growth from lower interest rates, the White House has lost sight of the present, the squeeze of higher prices and higher interest rates, Young said. Working class people know there are multiple problems with the administration's talking points. The Biden administration doesn't

understand inflation and its debilitating effects. Inflation numbers are a measure of past price growth. If prices go from a base of, let's say, $100 to $120, that's a 20% price increase. A slower inflation rate after this fact has no effect on the price rises that have already taken place. The previous price spikes are embedded. Slower current growth does not wipe those away, Young said. America is rightfully aggrieved at Bidenomics. The administration only adds insult to injury when it lectures the public on an economy that Biden bureaucrats aren't living in. The Wall Street Journal editorial board wrote about America's remarkably resilient economy. Thursday's fourth quarter GDP report no doubt elated the White House and Federal Reserve.

The economy grew at a solid 3.3% clip last quarter and 3.1% over the past year, while inflation is now nearing the central bank's 2% target. The question is whether, and for how long, consumers and government can sustain the expansion, the board said. Maybe the best news in the report is that the personal consumption expenditures, or PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation

gauge, rose by only 1.7 percent in the fourth quarter, down from 2.6 percent in the third. A buoyant labor market and rising real wages at long last are also boosting purchasing power while Americans continue to spend down their pandemic savings. Consumer spending continues to drive GDP growth, the board wrote. It's a testament to America's economic resilience that the economy keeps chugging despite a regulatory fusillade. President Biden has a growing economy, but can he keep it? In PJ Media, Catherine Salgado said the economy isn't growing, the government is just adding debt. The media and Biden administration are trying to fool you with propaganda about economic growth.

The reality is that the economy is in crisis, and the only growth is government spending, that is, government debt, Salgado said. Did the fourth quarter gross domestic product GDP 2023 report actually show wonderful economic growth? Not when put in context. You see, all that growth is really government spending, taxpayer money it doesn't have. Every $1 of GDP growth costs taxpayers $1.69 in new debt. To observe that that sort of growth isn't sustainable is a massive understatement. The Q4 increase in public U.S. debt was $834 billion, or an estimated 154% more than the GDP increase. Future American taxpayers will have to pay $957,100 for every new job we created, Salgado said. The GDP report wasn't good news. It was awful. Unless there are

some serious reforms, and unfortunately both Republicans and Democrats seem uninterested in reining in government spending, we could be headed for a collapse of historic abortions. All right, that is it for the rightist thing, which brings us to what the left is saying. The left is heartened by the latest numbers and thinks the tide of poor economic sentiment is finally beginning to turn. Some say the prospect of slashing interest rates will be tempting, but advise a cautious approach from the Fed. Others note that even strong economic numbers aren't driving an improvement in Biden's approval rating. Bloomberg's editorial board said the only

questions are when and how much the Fed will cut interest rates. Caution would be wise. A hope for soft landing is increasingly plausible, but this won't make the Fed's job any easier. At their meeting this week, the central bank's policymakers need to weigh risks and uncertainties that could still upend expectations, the board said. It's too soon to declare victory. The combination of tight money and steady consumer demand, along with very low unemployment and falling inflation, is indeed welcome, yet at the same time puzzling. Last year's forecast stand refuted left and right, which argues for humility in predicting where things go from here. The case for lower rates ought to turn on the outlook for demand, not just

on progress to date and curbing higher prices. It's likely that demand will in fact subside in the coming months thanks to high borrowing costs, subdued growth in real disposable income, and diminished savings. The Fed is aware of this prospect and, given the delay before changes in interest rates affect the economy, will wish to relax policy in anticipation. Unfortunately, if it anticipates too eagerly and demand does not subside as expected, an overstimulated economy might even now overturn the central bank's apparent victory over inflation. In Vox, Eric Levitz suggested a booming economy might not save the Biden campaign. This improvement in Americans' subjective sense of the economy coincided with fresh objective testaments to its strength. In recent weeks, gas prices have fallen,

retail sales have surged, and the stock market has reached a new all-time high, Levitt said. And yet, over the same period, Joe Biden's approval rating has barely budged. On November 29th, Americans disapproved of the president's job performance by a 15.9 percent margin, according to FiveThirtyEight's polling average. Two months of surging consumer sentiment later, Biden's approval is now underwater by 16.9 percent. For Democrats fretting over such grim data points, there has been consolation in the thought that an improving economy would eventually redound to the incumbent president's benefit. And this remains a plausible source of optimism. After all, public opinion can lag behind economic performance, Levitt said. Yet the fact that Biden's approval rating fell as the economic outlook brightened in 2023 has remained near historic lows, even as Americans have come to recognize the economy's virtues,

raises the possibility that an election year boom won't ensure his re-election. To share some thoughts on what has been happening with a little bit of a view from the left, we brought on Kyla Scanlon to talk a little bit about what she's seeing in this current moment. Kyla Scanlon, thank you so much for coming on the show. Yeah, thanks for having me. So we spoke a couple months ago now, and the last time we chatted, you know, we talked a lot about Gen Z and the kind of negative economic sentiment President Biden was facing.

We just got some new numbers tied to the economy, some strong sort of exceeding expectations GDP growth in Q4 of 2023. growth in Q4 of 2023. Today, the IMF, the International Monetary Fund, upgraded their projections about where the world economy was heading, given some inflation receding faster than people think. And now, finally, President Joe Biden is seeing some economic sentiment here in the United States start to tick up. I'm curious to hear your perspective about just the last week and some of these numbers and little bits of news we're seeing and kind of what you're feeling and sensing. Is this really a shift in the movement of, you know, how the economy is being viewed and the reality on the ground right now that we're witnessing?

Yeah, I mean, I think that's part of the uptick in sentiment that we've been seeing is people are finally feeling inflation abating a little bit, or at least aren't feeling inflation increasing as much, which of course is going to make people feel a bit better. And then other people have pointed out that media headlines have become more positive, which of course is going to be a boon for sentiment as well. And so it just seems like things are getting a little bit better. You don't have the same inflationary pressures. A job satisfaction report came out reporting that people feel pretty good about their jobs

as well. They feel pretty good about how they're being paid. Of course, you know, inflation has eroded wages for a while. But I do think that I don't know if it's going to be a permanent shift because if the last couple of years taught us anything, it's that we don't know anything. But I do think there's a lot of positive direction that the current administration can highlight as a win.

Yeah, I think that's kind of one of the things that feels important about this moment is we're sort of feeling the campaign season kick up. You know, at least in my world, everybody's starting to talk about 2024. We're watching this, you know, somehow a redux of Donald Trump versus Joe Biden come into focus. And this is a big question is how people are going to feel about the economy. So I guess I'm curious, you know, optimistic take if you're, you know, President Biden's campaign manager, what do you think the good news is for him right now? I mean, what should he be encouraged about? Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book,

Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is nearly double the historic average of 52,000 cases. What can you do this flu I mean, I think, you know, you mentioned the GDP number early on, and GDP was primarily driven by government spending, driven by manufacturing.

Of course, you still have a really strong consumer. But I think that for the Biden administration, you know, Bidenomics, for as much hate as people give it, it works. And like, that's just sort of an objective reality, like investing in manufacturing helped grow the economy. And part of the issue, and so like, that's something the Biden administration can highlight. But part of the issue with that, and Kate Arnoff wrote this in Pool Party Progressivism, is that that doesn't impact the everyday voter. The everyday voter doesn't walk outside and they're like, oh, yeah, I feel the manufacturing strength in the air.

They want to have more tangible impacts, and that's going to influence them a little bit more. Like social safety nets, dealing with taxes, all of those things, labor laws. And so I think the you know, the Biden administration can highlight what they've done for manufacturing, but I think they should focus, and they have been as well, like the IRS just released direct file. So they're thinking about how they can make policy relative to the consumer. But I think that would be a direction that they could probably focus on a little bit more in terms of what can be done. Yeah, I mean, I think that would be a direction that they could probably focus on a little bit more in terms of what can be done. that inflation is starting to recede, has been receding, and people are starting to feel that now, which I think is reflected in this kind of consumer sentiment bumping up a little bit.

We're seeing the economy continue to grow, strong GDP. So we're sort of walking into this much coveted soft landing territory that everybody has been really pining for. So what kind of policy proposals do you think the Biden administration should be focused on? I mean, he's got a year left in office. Where does he go next on economic policy? Is it just trumpeting what he's done and sort of sitting back and watching things play out? Are there issues you think that he needs to be focused on and tackling in the in the near term? I mean, what would be your guidance there if you had a say? Yeah, I think we both know nothing really happens in an election year, unfortunately. But I would say like for them, they've done a lot of really good stuff.

say like for them uh they've done a lot of really good stuff like i think you know focusing on ev is focusing on um how they can invest in manufacturing like i said i would say those are good things to focus on i do think that focusing a little bit more on the social aspect of what consumers can get would be important i don't know if that looks like a social safety net and i think you know they've done a lot in terms of supporting new homeowners, like down payment assistance and things like that. But I do think, you know, just focusing a little bit more on tangible policy for an individual would be ideal. Yeah, I don't want to be too prescriptive, but I would say that would be the best path. One last question before I let you go. One of the things that was kind of interesting that I saw was this IMF upgrading of the kind of economic outlook for the globe.

And, you know, a lot of that's tied to the world's two biggest economies, the United States and China and what their growth looks like. Can you talk a little bit about maybe about how the U.S. economy has been doing comparatively to the rest of the world, to places like China, to countries in the EU? I mean, how should we be thinking about our recovery and our fight with inflation vis-a-vis the global context? The U.S. economy has been killing it relative to the rest of the world. They've been doing very, very well. The Eurozone is essentially in a recession.

I think Germany officially entered a recession or entered definitely a strong economic downturn. China is currently bailing out their stock market. They can't, for the second year in a row, their population shrunk. So China is facing a bunch of headwinds that I don't think anybody really expected them to be facing right now. If you had said five years ago that China would be not growing and also be struggling economically, I think people would be surprised. But the United States has been so strong, partially because of the support of fiscal policy that we had during the pandemic. So the fact that the Biden administration was able to come out with stimulus checks, the fact that the Federal Reserve responded as strongly as they did with monetary interjection into the economy at large, was part of the reason that we have had such a strong economy.

And so the big lesson coming out of the other side of this is that austerity is not the answer, right? Like, so if you think about all the bemoaning of a deficit, all the bemoaning of the U.S. debt, right? Like if that debt is productive, which inherently it sort of was because it was supporting people during a pandemic, enabling them to continue to spend money,

enabling corporations to continue to spend money, enabling corporations to continue to pay people, that's the right kind of debt situation to be in. And so that's what the United States, I think, has really shown the world. Not that debt is good, but that when it comes time to support people, that's what you have to do. And that's the role of a government. And that's enabled the U.S. economy to grow relative to everybody else. Kyla Scanlon, thank you for coming on. I appreciate the time. If anybody wants to keep up with their work, KylaScanlon.com is the first place to go. Kyla, hopefully have you back on sometime soon as things continue to unfold.

Thanks so much. Appreciate it. All right, that is it for the left and the right are saying, which brings us to my take. So for the Biden campaign, after multiple years of poor economic sentiment, the light at the end of the tunnel is growing brighter. Consider the following picture. The University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, which indexes consumer sentiment, had a reading of 78.8 for January, its highest since July of 2021. That's a 21.4% increase from last January, and the index's three-month rolling average increased by 5% since December, its largest monthly increase since 1991. That jump in sentiment comes at a time when inflation is steadying. Gas prices have fallen about 39 cents from a year ago, and the stock market is growing steadily. The S&P 500 is now

near a record high, which is good for everyone from retail investors to retirees. GDP growth indicates we are, for now, avoiding a recession, which is great news for workers and even better news for media coverage of President Biden's economy. As it has been for the past two years, unemployment is under 4%. Labor participation is high and trending upward. Simply put, the United States has been outperforming every other major economy since the pandemic, and by nearly all traditional metrics, it is now doing quite well. I'm no economist, but in a political context, this is great news for the incumbent. For the last year or so, the confusing thing has been contrasting these healthy traditional indicators with lukewarm forecasts and ice-cold sentiment. I've made the very

unoriginal point that consumer sentiment tends to lag behind the data, and that appears to once again be proving true. Consumer sentiment is bouncing up now that we've had a few consecutive months of fading inflation and continued wage growth. That is what we would expect. There are some other good signs, too. Our media ecosystem is not built to amplify positive news, but consider this. 77% of Americans are happy with where they are living, a number that includes renters, despite the fact housing costs have surged in the last few years. 63% of Americans rate their current financial situation as good, including 19% who say it's very good. Future outlooks are strong too. 85% of Americans think they can change their personal financial situation for the better in 2024, and 66% think 2024 will be better than 2023. And those are numbers from mid-December, which means we can expect them to improve. Of course, that's the rosy picture, but it is not

all rosy. Inflation has a long tail, and many working-class Americans are still feeling its impact. The deficit is huge, and as Catherine Salgado wrote under what the right is saying, there are legitimate concerns that strong GDP numbers are just the product of high government spending, a reality that is not sustainable. The low unemployment and high labor participation rates we mentioned are both still under their pre-COVID levels. As for that near 98-point consumer sentiment, its three-month average is still at 69.9. Under Trump, its lowest pre-COVID reading was 95.1, and its lowest level of its term was 74.1 during COVID. Gas prices are down from a year ago, but

well up from pre-COVID times. Inflation is receding, but it has not gone away. The Fed looks ready to cut interest rates this year, but only following the several hikes it made over the last two years, which have jacked up the price of homeownership. On the one hand, the economy is still not where it was pre-COVID, and that is bad news for Biden. Most Americans remember life before the pandemic, and most are still feeling the impacts of the huge price surges from throughout 2022 and the interest rate hikes that followed. Good economic news compared to two years ago comes with some major asterisks. On the other hand, if the economic outlook keeps improving, this could be good news for Biden. Consumer sentiment

is already ticking up and will probably keep going. The continued dissipation of inflation, A lot of readers were frustrated with my writing a couple weeks ago when I answered a series of reader questions about what good Biden has done for the country. His presidency has had plenty of issues, probably the biggest one is the situation on the border, which we covered yesterday, and inflation hampered him for the first couple of years. But given the current economic data and consumer sentiment numbers combined with the simple reality of where we are compared to the rest of the world post-COVID, the economy might not be one of those weaknesses anymore. If, and it's a big if, things keep trending the way they are, a strong economy could be a political lifeboat for this administration at a time when the seas are as rough as they've

ever been. when the seas are as rough as they've ever been. We'll be right back after this quick break. All right, that is it for my take, which brings us to your questions answered. This one's from G in Knoxville, Tennessee, who said, In my view, the only good that could potentially come out of Biden v. Trump round two is a viable third-party candidate that takes off as a result of people just being over it. Obviously, a third party is no shot at winning in the near term, but is this the type of perfect storm that could propel something like this to happen, what else would need to happen? I acknowledge the uphill battle, but how many more election cycles can we go through where both parties offer the American electorate the option to vote for the lesser of two evils? All right, so first of all, I think another political party sounds great. I am pro-election

reform, pro-open primaries, pro-more choices, and pro-pretty much anything that gets more people to participate in our democratic system and less of a reliance on our current duopoly. I think getting more political parties with real support can be a part of that. It's not the only way forward, but if it's the way we get there, then I'm all for it. However, I worry people don't want a third party because their ideologies aren't reflected by our parties or candidates, but because they don't like the leading candidates of the major parties. And I think that because everyone writing in asking for more parties complains about Biden v. Trump. What would the platform of this third party be, and who would be its candidate? If polling is any indication, the most attractive alternative candidate is the anti-establishment populism of RFK Jr., who's consistently polling at around 8%. But I don't think 8% is enough to

make for a perfect storm conditions for third-party relevance, even if it does swing the race. And I don't know what other political ideology can do better. I find it tough to answer the many questions I get about the no-labels movement and party because I have no idea what they stand for other than we aren't Democrats or Republicans. The biggest parties outside the duopoly have for years been the Libertarian Party and the Green Party. For years, they've offered different candidates, and for years, very few people have voted for them. And if you want a new major political party, that's not even the bad news. This is. We're actually in a really bad environment for those parties to get more support. Instead of a perfect storm, it's more like clear sailing.

The massive dislike for Trump or Biden from either side is so high that fewer people are going to want to give their vote to anyone other than the guy from the other big party. Green Party membership has flatlined since Trump took office, and the Libertarian membership that surged with his candidacy in 2016 is crashing back to earth. Maybe the right party doesn't come before the right candidate. Maybe the right candidate shows up and the party is formed afterwards. And maybe that person is actually RFK Jr., whose candidacy we covered last year by saying his message will resonate with millions of people and who continues to have a noticeable impact on the polls. If you're looking for a person who can grow genuine enthusiasm in a formidable new political party, then there's a good chance that he's the right guy.

But I'll say again, I don't think now is the right time. All right, that is it for your questions answered, which brings us to our under the radar section. Not a lot of people talking about this. We mentioned it on our podcast on Sunday when Ari and I were chatting, but on February 6th, Nevada will hold a GOP primary with only one serious candidate on the ballot, Nikki Haley. Two days later, the Republican Party is going to host a GOP caucus in which voters can express their support for only one serious candidate, Donald Trump. But when it's time to assign delegates, only the results of the caucus are going to be counted, guaranteeing

that Trump wins the Nevada GOP primary. The bizarre scenario is the result of a dispute among state GOP officials over a lack of voter ID requirement in the primary and a desire to ensure Trump earns the state's delegates in the caucus. Nikki Haley's supporters are now accusing the race of being rigged. Politico has the story, and there's a link to it in today's episode description. All right, next up is our numbers section. GDP growth for the U.S. economy in Q4 of 2015 was 1%. President Obama's approval rating in December 2015 was 45%. GDP growth in Q4 of 2019 was 2.1%. President Trump's approval rating in December 2019 was 45%. GDP growth for the U.S. economy in Q4 of 2023 was 3.3%, yet President Biden's approval

rating at the end of December 2023 is 39%. The percentage of Americans who say they were very concerned about the price of food and consumer goods in January 2023 is 75%. The percentage who say that in January of 2024 this year is 72%. That's only a 3% decrease. The percentage who say that in January of 2024 this year is 72%. That's only a 3% decrease. The percentage of Americans who said they were very concerned about the cost of housing in January 2023 was 60%. And in January of 2024, that number has gone up to 64%. All right. And last but not least, our have a nice day section.

All right, and last but not least, our have a nice day section. Ken Pruess was catching up with an old friend in his hometown of Oviedo, Florida. His friend suggested they stop at a familiar local restaurant that Ken used to see every day, but had never eaten in. During the meal, another diner greeted Ken by name and handed him a folder with loose papers in it. That diner was Craig Wheeler. His mother had been Ken's English teacher, and the folder contained an assignment Ken completed in 1982. Ken took the opportunity to reminisce gratefully about his favorite teacher, and the Washington Post has his story. All right. That is it for today's podcast. As always, if you want to support our work, please go to retangle.com forward slash membership and write to me, Isaac, I S A A C at retangle.com and let us know what you think about some of the new stuff we're doing with the pod.

We'll be right back here same time tomorrow. Have a good one. Peace. The logo for our podcast was designed by Magdalena Bokova, who is also our social media manager. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet75. And if you're looking for more from Tangle, please go to retangle.com and check out our website. We'll be right back. a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is nearly double the historic average of 52,000 cases. What can you do this flu season? Talk to your pharmacist or doctor about getting a flu shot. Consider FluCellVax Quad and help protect yourself from the flu.

It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages six months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at FluCellVax.ca.