Tangle - How Democrats lost in Virginia.

Episode Date: November 3, 2021

Last night, Glenn Youngkin (R) defeated Terry McAuliffe (D) in Virginia's highly-watched governor's race. With more than 95% of the vote tallied, Youngkin was leading McAuliffe by a full two percentage points. Jason Miyares, the Republican state delegate who ran on a tough-on-crime campaign, won the race for attorney general, becoming Virginia's first Cuban-American AG. Republican Winsome Sears won the race for Lt. Governor, becoming the first Black woman ever elected to a statewide post in Virginia. Sears's campaign focused on lowering taxes, supporting school choice and investing in Historically Black Colleges and Universities.Today, we're going to examine what was behind the results. Our newsletter is written by Isaac Saul, edited by Bailey Saul, Sean Brady, Ari Weitzman, and produced in conjunction with Tangle’s social media manager Magdalena Bokowa, who also created our logo.The podcast is edited by Trevor Eichhorn, and music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75.You can support our podcast by clicking here.--- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/tanglenews/message Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is nearly double the historic average of 52,000 cases. What can you do this flu season? Talk to your pharmacist or doctor about getting a flu shot. Consider FluCellVax Quad and help protect yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages 6 months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at flucellvax.ca. Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police

procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. From executive producer Isaac Saul,

this is Tangle. Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening, and welcome to the Tangle Podcast, a place where you get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking without all that hysterical nonsense you find everywhere else. I am your host, Isaac Saul, and on today's episode, we have a lot of news to cover. By now, most of you have probably heard the results from the Virginia and New Jersey elections are in the governor's races, as well as many of the results from some of the races and amendments and ballot measures that we covered yesterday. We are going to focus today on that Virginia race, though, and we're going to do it in

a little bit of a different way than we normally do. I'll explain that in a second. We also have a reader question, as always. Before we jump in, though, we'll start with the quick hits. First up, Democrat Phil Murphy won New Jersey's race for governor, defeating Republican challenger Jack Cittarelli by a microscopic margin. Number two, the CDC recommended the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine for children aged 5 to 11 yesterday. Number three, Minneapolis voters rejected an amendment to replace the police department with the Department of Public Safety by a 12-point margin.

Number four, Ohio Democrat Chantel Brown won the 11th district, filling the seat left open by Marsha Fudge. Republican Mike Carey won the state's 15th district. And in Florida, the Democratic primary is headed for a recount. Number five, the Supreme Court is set to hear oral arguments in a major gun rights case today that could allow more Americans to carry firearms in public. All right, those are our quick hits for the day, which brings us to the main story. Today's topic is Virginia. Last night, Glenn Youngkin, the Republican, defeated Terry McAuliffe, the Democratic candidate, in Virginia's highly watched governor's race. With more than 95% of the vote tallied, Youngkin was leading McAuliffe by a full two percentage points this morning.

Jason Meares, the Republican state delegate who ran on a tough-on-crime campaign, won the race for attorney general, becoming Virginia's first Cuban-American AG. Republican Winsome Sears won the race for lieutenant governor, becoming the first black woman ever elected to a statewide post in Virginia. Sears' campaign focused on lowering taxes, supporting school choice, and investing in historically black colleges and universities. That is basically a full Republican sweep. They did not take control of the statehouse, but they narrowed the margin to 21 to 19. The sweeping wins for Virginia Republicans paired with the nail-biter governor's race in New Jersey that Democrats just barely won will likely have widespread implications for national politics.

Democrats in Congress are already pointing the finger at members of their own party, with moderates warning that Americans are rejecting more progressive policy initiatives, and progressives arguing that President Joe Biden needs to pass his infrastructure and reconciliation bills to win over voters. Meanwhile, Republicans are sensing newfound momentum heading into next year's midterms, with education, COVID-19 regulations, and policing as major wedge issues to run on. Candidates matter, Glenn Youngkin's chief strategist Jeff Rowe told the Associated Press. We weren't defined by Obama. We weren't defined by Trump. We were defined by Glenn. President Biden won Virginia in the 2020 presidential race by 10 points, but the Democratic

Party appears to have suffered from a 12-point swing toward Youngkin over recent months. According to AP VoteCast, which polled 2,600 voters for seven days and until the polls closed in Virginia, 35% of Virginia voters said the economy and jobs were the most important issues facing the state. 17% said COVID-19 and 14% chose education. And those numbers bring us to the arguments about today's story. So typically, this is kind of the part where I would give you some of the takes from the right and some of the takes from the left. Obviously, pundits from both sides of the aisle have started to chime in on why this election matters and why it played out the way that it did. But the arguments are roughly the same as they were when we covered them in last week's newsletter and last week's podcast on the Virginia race.

Basically, the right believes this race was about education and disapproval for Biden, while the left believes Youngkin is a closet Trump supporter or Trumper and couldn't fathom McAuliffe losing a state Biden won by 10 points just a year ago. So rather than rehashing those arguments, which have not changed much in the days since we published that last podcast and newsletter about this race, I just want to get straight into what I think, my reflections and view on this race. I will include some arguments being made by the right and left and address them, but I figured, you know what, I'm going to get on my pulpit a little bit today. All right, so if you want to see how easily politically-minded people attach themselves

to narratives, you need not look any further than Virginia and this race. The results from Virginia have barely marinated for 12 hours, and everyone has their own stories to explain them, few of which I find particularly convincing. Democrats are rightly horrified and now entering this circular firing squad phase of election postmortems. If it wasn't clear before, it is crystal clear now. Their odds of holding on to majorities in the House are slim to none when they can barely eke out a victory in a New Jersey governor's race and they lose handedly in Virginia. Progressives will blame the loss on a lack of action from moderates and the fact they haven't yet passed any of Biden's major agenda pieces, nor did they, quote, get help to voters in Virginia who needed it. Moderates will blame the loss on progressives who focus too much on race and too little on issues pushing Biden's presidency further to

the left than many expected. Both will have some valid points, but neither are totally right in my view. Meanwhile, Republicans seem hellbent on telling themselves this race was about education and critical race theory. Trump supporters will say this race is a sign of the strength Trump would have in 2024, even though Youngkin practically stiff-armed the former president away from the race. Others on the right continue to tell stories out of Virginia that are often centered on furious parents at school board meetings who are purportedly outraged about their kids being taught the truth about Columbus or that black Americans have had it badly in the United States. This apparently is something the right and left pundits agree on.

White parents in Virginia are mad about what their kids are being taught in school. One side just thinks it's justified, while the other side thinks it's proof of systemic racism. In reality, white parents saying education is a top issue are probably just as pissed off that their kids just spent a year at home in a broken remote learning environment and are still jumping through COVID-19 hoops in schools as they are angry about anything the kids are being taught in school related to U.S. history and race. Here's what I think. These narratives are all tiny threads in a much broader political environment that has both predictable and obvious outcomes. Let's start at 30,000 feet and then zoom in a little bit. First, modern American elections are about change. In 2008, we got Barack Obama. In 2010,

we got a huge backlash to Obama in the midterms. In 2012, we got backlash to the backlash and Obama won again. In 2014, we saw Democrats get creamed again by the Tea Party and whoever else was swinging back at Obama. In 2016, we had Trump. In 2018, we had a midterms backlash to Trump. In 2020, we got a second backlash to Trump and we got Biden. And so in 2021 and 2022, what would you guess is going to happen? The obvious answer is a backlash to Biden and the policies that just came into office. Many Americans live in a perpetual state of grievance, and it makes a lot more sense to blame the people running the country than ones who aren't. In Virginia's case, the change element is on steroids. Historically speaking, the state hadn't re-elected a Democratic governor in 44 years. Last night just kept that streak alive.

More specifically, to this race and the theme of change, we had a political newcomer, Glenn Youngkin, versus someone who had literally been governor of Virginia in Terry McAuliffe and ran in this race three times. It's no wonder one candidate had more baggage with voters than the other. Second, the president is underwater in the polls. Anytime the party in the White House is underwater, that party is going to struggle in statewide elections. Biden has one of the worst approval ratings of any president on record at this point in his presidency. Biden has one of the worst approval ratings of any president on record at this point in his presidency. Listen to that sentence again if you didn't absorb it the first time. Biden has one of the worst approval ratings of any president on record at this point in his presidency.

The idea that Terry McAuliffe, who spent most of his campaign talking about Donald Trump, was going to waltz to victory in that environment was always bananas, even a few months ago when he had a 10-point lead in the polls. Speaking of the polls, they are still off. Whatever skewing pollsters are doing to account for conservatives staying silent seems to once again be failing. In the final days, it looked like the Virginia race came into focus. Real clear politics in 538 averages showed Yunkin with a 1-2 percentage point advantage, but the energy for for Youngkin and his support on the ground to McAuliffe's was always telling an even stronger story. Still, what about in New Jersey? Phil Murphy was supposed to have a 5-10 percentage point lead, but as of this morning, the race

was separated by 69 votes. He ended up winning by a fraction of a percentage point. The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported fraction of a percentage. Help protect yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages six months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at flucellvax.ca. Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight.

Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. Here's a fun fact. Youngkin's chief of staff was right when he said candidates matter. McAuliffe was pathological about making this race a referendum on Trump, who is no longer in office. Watch the debates, their campaign ads, their stump speeches, their social media accounts, whatever you want to do, and it was clear Youngkin spent more time talking about Virginia issues than McAuliffe did. You can't convince me that that didn't matter. about Virginia issues than McAuliffe did. You can't convince me that that didn't matter. Youngkin focused on the economy, inflation, taxes, and on creating a less demanding environment about how people need to act during a pandemic. Newsflash, that is in line with the mood of the

country as a whole. And yes, he took advantage of McAuliffe's mistakes on education, but that wasn't the game plan going in. That wasn't the blueprint to win this race before it became an issue. Just look at the numbers again. 35% of Virginia voters said the economy and jobs were the most important issues facing the state. 17% said COVID-19. Just 14% chose education, which is high for education, granted, I give you that, but it's still less than half of the voters that said economy and jobs were the top issue. All Youngkin had to do to win was to make modest gains in the suburbs among minority voters and among educated white voters to win. And he did it. Meanwhile, Democrats have totally abandoned any attempt to appeal to rural voters besides expanding broadband internet, meaning they have no avenue to make up

those suburban and minority losses when they come, which is what just happened. Democrats try to make these results about white grievance. They will lose again and they will keep losing. The greatest flaw of identity politics is that it obscures the true depth of candidates in favor of defining them broadly by race, gender or sexual orientation. Winsome Sears did become the first black woman to win statewide office in Virginia last night. She's also a former U.S. Marine. She's pro-life. She's a Jamaican immigrant. She ran her own plumbing and electrical repair business. She ran on deregulation, school choice, lowering taxes, historically black colleges and universities. Try putting that background in a box. Try defining it in a sentence, and what you'll get is a lack of understanding about why she won. If you think she

won just because she had an R next to her name or because white parents are upset about critical race theory or any number of these ideas that are out there, you're wrong. She won because she was a good candidate with a good story who was telling voters what they wanted to hear at the right time. She hitched herself to who had the momentum and energy in this election. All this leaves a big elephant in the room for Biden and Democrats, who are about to eat each other alive with the blame game. What does this mean for his agenda? More specifically, what does it mean for the more than $3 trillion in plans they're trying to get through Congress right now? Every Democrat is going to twist themselves into knots to try to explain why this loss means their path forward is best.

But from where I'm sitting, Biden is still at the steering wheel. Biden's approval ratings are not underwater because he has reshaped the country in his first year. His approval ratings are underwater because the country is basically the same as it was a year ago. Thousands of people are still dying from COVID every day, every week. We're still masked up. We're still fighting over vaccines, fighting over race. We're still bungling wars abroad. We're still struggling economically. We're still woefully divided. We're still talking about Trump. We're still seeing a violent crime spike. We still can't pass an infrastructure bill, still haven't improved the immigration system. We're still without lower prescription drug prices, paid family leave, or wages that outpace inflation, the most popular items on Biden's agenda that somehow are now

missing from his legislation. The biggest difference between now and a year ago is that we're navigating a rise in inflation, worker shortages are worse, we're being rocked by a global supply chain freakout, and we all have to collectively endure hyperbolic outrage over the critical race theory punditry. Biden ran on solving all of these things. That was never going to happen in a year, but Democrats' best shot at regaining any popularity won't be reneging on or abandoning his campaign promises. It'll be better pursuing them. Of course, it's possible whatever they end up passing doesn't appease American voters or maybe even makes the situation worse. But whatever they've got going on now clearly isn't the answer. The best they can do

is change things. Change the country. That's what modern politics are about. They're change elections. Move us away from where we were a year ago. make it different from where we were a year ago. There's plenty to love and loathe about the twin infrastructure and reconciliation bills, but if Biden doesn't get them through and then win the narrative about them before the 2022 midterms, his exceedingly slim odds of keeping power in Congress will turn to zero. All right. That's it for my take on last night's election results. But our reader question actually is related to them. It's an anonymous question from an independent voter in Virginia who said, if you are a Virginia resident, who would you vote for in the governor's race? This is just a good

opportunity for me to state this again. I've said it before in the newsletter, but it's been a long time. At Tangle, we do a lot of things to try and distinguish ourselves from other news sources. One of those things is that we don't endorse candidates. We didn't in the 2020 presidential race, which many subscribers on both sides freaked out over and many even unsubscribed over, but we won't in 2022 or 2024 or any race after that. That's not to say I'm trying to obscure my own biases or dodge the question. In fact, one of my favorite things about Tangle is that I get space every day to tell you how I honestly feel. My hope with Tangle is that all my readers find things they agree with, disagree with, are challenged by, and want to learn more about in every podcast or newsletter. But I don't think newspapers or news outlets or even editorial boards should be in the business of endorsing

candidates. I think it erodes trust with the readers and listeners. I also think that because every politician is flawed, it hands a cudgel to readers who can then use it against me in the future anytime I write something they don't like. It allows them to dismiss my arguments because I once said I'd vote for Terry McCullough for Glenn Youngkin, a candidate who, for whatever reason, they may hate. Anyway, that's my stance. I'm not going to jump ship from it here. I think my coverage of the Virginia race, some of what I've said here today, and some of the issues that I've covered that are at the heart of that race give plenty of clues about where I stand. All right, that gives us our story that matters. Yesterday,

one of the under-radar election results was a major victory for progressives in Tucson, Arizona, where voters overwhelmingly approved a $15 an hour minimum wage hike by 2025. The proposition was approved by a two-to-one margin, according to the Associated Press. Some 85,000 residents of Tucson are expected to see a wage hike thanks to the amendment. On a night when progressive initiatives took some major hits, Tucson became one of the latest cities in America to vote for an increase in the minimum wage, a sign that the proposal has enduring popularity almost any time it appears on a ballot. This is probably something both parties should take note of. All right, that brings us to our numbers section. These are all about the Virginia race last night, and I think they're pretty interesting. First up, 45 to 53 is the margin Donald Trump lost by in the suburbs of Virginia in 2020. 53 to 47 is the margin Glenn Youngkin won the suburbs of Virginia by this year. 53 to 47 is also President Biden's approval rating among all Virginia voters, according to a

recent AP News poll. 15.8% was Biden's margin of victory in New Jersey in 2020. 0.3% was Democrat Phil Murphy's current lead over Jack Ciattarelli, with 88% of the vote reported. 72% is the percentage of Virginia electorate that is white, according to AP News VoteCast. Alright, that brings us to our Have a Nice Day section. This is a wild story that I didn't even know was going down, but just saw a headline about today. More than 140,000 Amazon drivers are getting back close to $60 million in illegally withheld tips after the Federal Trade Commission reached a settlement with Amazon. According to the FTC, the average check for Amazon Flex drivers will be $422, but one driver will recruit more

than $28,000 in lost tips. 19,980 drivers will receive checks of more than $600, according to Business Insider. These tips were illegally withheld by Amazon between 2016 and 2019. Amazon Flex drivers had been employed with the promise they'd earn $18 to $25 an hour and keep 100% of their tips. But the FTC alleged that Amazon started paying their drivers less and making up the difference by keeping the tips without ever notifying the drivers of the change. Amazon agreed to settle the case and pay out all the money it withheld from drivers. So that's a big win for workers and a lot of people who I guess got screwed over, which, yeah, that's good news. All right, that is it for today's podcast as always if you enjoyed this analysis you liked some of the stuff we talked about please consider supporting our work there is a link in the episode

description to do that you can also just go to readtangle.com backslash membership and become a tangle member it's four dollars and sixteen cents a month if you subscribe for the year it's really cheap it's a good deal, but it keeps our lights on and it keeps us going when a lot of people do it. All right. Thank you guys so much. And we'll see you tomorrow. Our newsletter is written by Isaac Saul, edited by Bailey Saul, Sean Brady, Ari Weitzman, and produced in conjunction with Tangle's social media manager, Magdalena Bokova, who also helped create our logo.

The podcast is edited by Trevor Eichhorn, and music for the podcast was produced by Diet75. For more from Tangle, subscribe to our newsletter or check out our content archives at www.readtangle.com. The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is nearly double the historic average of 52,000 cases. What can you do this flu season? Talk to your pharmacist or doctor about getting a flu shot. Consider FluCellVax Quad and help protect yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages 6 months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and

100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at flucellvax.ca. Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+.