Tangle - Indiana GOP rejects Trump's redistricting effort.

Episode Date: December 16, 2025

On Thursday, the Republican-controlled Indiana Senate voted 31–19 to reject a redrawn congressional map designed to increase the number of GOP seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. President Donald Trump and national Republicans pushed for the new map and lobbied the state’s Republican leadership to back the effort. In the end, 21 Republican senators joined all 10 Democratic senators in opposing the bill, leaving it short of the 26 votes required to pass. Ad-free podcasts are here!To listen to this podcast ad-free, and to enjoy our subscriber only premium content, go to ReadTangle.com to sign up!Need a last-minute gift?The holiday season is here, which is a good time to remind you: You can give the gift of Tangle to friends and family! There are two great options: Gift a Tangle subscription. Whether it’s an earnest present to a friend or family member who would love our work, or a passive-aggressive gift for your favorite relative who doesn’t share your politics, a Tangle subscription is a great way to find some common ground and keep your loved ones informed. It takes thirty seconds! Hit the merch shop. We have hoodies, shirts, mugs, stickers, hats, and even onesies for the little ones. Snag something fresh with our new logo or grab a vintage Tangle brain on any garment you’d like. You will want to hop on these quickly to make sure they arrive before the holidays!You can read today's podcast⁠ ⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠, our “Under the Radar” story ⁠here and today’s “Have a nice day” story ⁠here⁠.You can subscribe to Tangle by clicking here or drop something in our tip jar by clicking here. Take the survey: What do you think Indiana’s vote implies for other gerrymandering efforts? Let us know.Our Executive Editor and Founder is Isaac Saul. Our Executive Producer is Jon Lall.This podcast was written by: Isaac Saul and edited and engineered by Dewey Thomas. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75.Our newsletter is edited by Managing Editor Ari Weitzman, Senior Editor Will Kaback, Lindsey Knuth, Kendall White, Bailey Saul, and Audrey Moorehead. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

From executive producer Isaac Saul, this is Tangle. Good morning, good afternoon and good evening, and welcome to the Tangle podcast, a place where you get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking, and a little bit of my take. I'm your host, Isaac Saul. Tuesday, December 16th, and today we are covering Indiana's redistricting rejection. I think maybe the best way I put it is Indiana GOP rebuking President Donald Trump. Not a story you hear a ton of these days. Before we jump in to that main topic, though, I have to give you a quick heads up. We launched a big campaign this morning about a couple hours ago to try and do something, I think,

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Anyway, all right, I'll leave it there. I think you get the point. But, like, go do it. Just go do it. please all right let's jump into today's quick hits number one the manhunt for the suspect in the shooting at brown university that killed two students is still underway law enforcement released new images and video of a person of interest and the federal bureau of investigation announced a $50,000 reward for information leading to the identification, arrest, and prosecution of the

shooter. Number two, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation reported that the two gunmen who killed 15 people in Sydney on Sunday had traveled to the Philippines in the month before the attack to receive, quote, military-style training. Number three, officials from the United States and Ukraine announced that the Trump administration has promised security guarantees for Ukraine, as part of a deal to end its war with Russia. Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky

said discussions about other provisions in a potential agreement are still underway. Number four, President Donald Trump issued an executive order classifying fentanyl, a synthetic opioid, as a weapon of mass destruction, describing it as, quote, closer to a chemical weapon than a narcotic, end quote. The order directs relevant federal agencies

to focus their efforts on reducing fentanyl, imports. And finally, number five, President Trump filed a $10 billion defamation lawsuit against the BBC, accusing the outlet of publishing a, quote, false, defamatory, deceptive, disparaging, inflammatory, and malicious, end quote, portrayal of the president in a documentary episode published in 2024. The BBC previously apologized to Trump for the episode, which spliced together two clips of Trump's speech on January 6th, 2021, and omitted his statement calling for peaceful protest. Republicans already dominate politics in the Hoosier state. The proposed map rejected by the state Senate moments ago would have given the GOP an advantage in all nine districts in the state.

Republicans who voiced opposition to the plan have been the victims of bomb threats and other vitriol directed their way. I voted for him three times. I like a lot of the things he's done. I didn't like this. Why would I cave to what I would tell you is bullying? On Thursday, the Republican-controlled Indiana Senate voted 31 to reject a redrawn congressional map designed to increase the number of GOP seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. President Donald Trump and National Republicans pushed for the new map and lobbied the state's Republican leadership to back the effort. In the end, 21 Republican senators joined all 10 Democratic senators in opposing the bill, leaving it short of the 26 votes required to pass. Indiana's U.S. House delegation is currently made up of seven Republicans and two Democrats, and states usually draw new district maps at the start of each decade.

The proposed map preceded the census by several years, and mapmakers aimed to give Republicans a 9-0 delegation by dividing the two Democratic-held districts to incorporate more rural and conservative counties. Several Republican and Democratic states have already begun mid-decade redistricting since the summer, in an attempt to increase their party representation in the House. The vote in Indiana marks the first failed effort by either party during this push. Last week, the Indiana House advanced a bill proposing the new map 57 to 41, with 12 Republicans joining all Democrats in voting against it.

Indiana Governor Mike Braun, a Republican, had called on the legislature to consider the proposal in November, and State Senate President pro tempore Roderic Bray also referred. Republican, made plans to advance a vote in December, but said at the time that he did not believe it had enough support to pass. Prior to Thursday's Senate vote, President Trump posted a lengthy message on truth social, criticizing Bray, and threatening to support primary challenges to Republicans who voted against the bill. Quote, anyone that votes against redistricting and the success of the Republican Party in D.C. will be, I am sure, met with a MAGA primary in the spring. Trump wrote. Quote,

Rod Bray and his friends won't be in politics for long, and I will do everything within my power to make sure that they will not hurt the Republican Party and our country again, end quote. Separately, Heritage Action, a conservative advocacy group, posted on X, quote, President Trump has made it clear to Indiana leaders. If the Indiana Senate fails to pass the map, all federal funding will be stripped from the state. Roads will not be paved.

guard bases will close, major projects will stop, these are the stakes, and every no vote will be to blame, end quote. Several state GOP senators who opposed the new map cited this pressure campaign as part of their reason for voting no. At least 11 Republicans reported threats, including having SWAT teams called to their homes in the lead-up to the vote. Quote, you have to know Hoosiers. We can't be bullied. Senator Sue Glick, a Republican, said, Quote, the instant reaction is we dig in our heels and say why. State Senator Spencer Deary, also a Republican, also voted no, and said he did not support the national redistricting push. Quote, I, like a super majority of you, do not want to see another Democratic Speaker of the House, Senator Deary said. Quote, but that isn't for me to decide.

Living in a free constitutional republic means we empower voters to make those decisions. Today we will share perspectives from the right, the left, and Indiana writers on the vote and its aftermath. Then, executive editor Isaac Saul gives his take. So let's jump right into what the right is saying. Many on the right are ambivalent about the outcome, but concerned about the state of the GOP. Some say Indiana Republicans made a mistake with national consequences. In the American conservative, W. James Antle III asked, is the Indiana redistricting debacle the future of MAGA?

It remains to be seen which is more ephemeral. Trump's current relative rough patch or the political movement he has spawned. It is unclear that other Republicans are ready or even willing to lead. But Trump has shown Republicans that some things are possible when you're willing to exercise political power on behalf of your priorities. And also that bare-knuckle politics has its limits, Antel wrote, which brings us to the collapse of the Republican redistricting bill in Indiana. The debacle features a little bit of everything ailing the GOP these days,

wishy-washy red state republicanism that frustrates conservatives nationally, pugilistic outside conservative agitators making ham-fisted threats that always seemed likely to backfire. Republicans should of course do whatever they can to counteract Democratic redistricting efforts and pre-existing Blue State gerrymandering in places like California, which are in turn a response to Republican drawn congressional maps in states like Texas, Antel said. But ultimately altering the political conditions that might bring about a Democratic wave election is the only real solution. redistricting might expand the number of seats available to Republicans, but even if not canceled out by the Democrats or overturned by the courts, it will also produce some seats that only went for

Trump by margins that won't make them safe in a wave election. In the Federalist, Sean Fleetwood said, Indiana's redistricting surrender illustrates why primaries matter. The contrast between this embarrassment and redistricting efforts by Democratic-led states could not be starker. While Democrats with razor-thin margins in blue states like Virginia are willing to seemingly violate the law to pass gerrymandered maps in their party's favor, fake red states like Indiana can't even be bothered to legally use their supermajorities to do the same, Fleetwood wrote. It's clear there's only one political force playing to win this game, and it's not the Republican Party. But more to the point, Indiana's bungledry-districting Gambit underscores an important feature of the electoral system that many GOP voters have long ignored the primary process, Fleetwood said. The entire reason feckless Republicans believe they can continue to get away with the type of betrayal exemplified in the Hoosier state

is that they don't fear electoral accountability from the GOP base. All too often, conservative voters either vote to re-elect the same weak-nead incumbents or sit out the primaries altogether, thus allowing the establishment class to maintain its hold on power. Now here's what the left is saying. Many on the left suggest the vote is Republicans' most significant rebuke of Trump to date. Others note that the GOP redistricting effort is still succeeding in many other states.

In CNN, Aaron Blake called the vote a major unforced error for Trump. Whether the Indiana State Legislature voted to draw two additional Republican-leaning congressional districts as Donald Trump wanted. Whether the Indiana State Legislature voted to draw two additional Republican-leaning congressional districts as President Donald Trump wanted was unlikely to be the decisive factor in the 26 mid-term elections. But just as Trump's dominance over his party was looking to be somewhat in doubt in recent weeks, he picked a battle to re-establish it. He chose very wrongly, Blake wrote. The upshot is that Trump's hold over his party,

his most important political asset, appears weaker than at virtually any other point in his two presidencies. Not weak, period, but weaker. In Trump's first term, congressional Republicans bucked him on foreign policy issues several times. And compared to weighty foreign policy issues,

passing a new map is very small bore. The easy move for Indiana Republicans would have been to just capitulate, especially after all the pressure was brought to bear, Blake said, but they decided to make a point, and they did so by voting in much bigger numbers than they needed to. Several of them could have protected their careers and livelihoods

by voting yes and still having the map fail, but they went out of their way to stand with one another against Trump by a large margin. In the nation, David Daly wrote, Indiana's gerrymander victory won't save us. It's a big deal that Republicans in Indiana's state senate last week squashed President Trump's demands. The remaining map is still a GOP gerrymander. It ensures Republicans seven safe seats, which they won in 2024 by an average of 30 percentage points, despite netting just 58% of the statewide vote, Daly said.

Throughout the rest of the country, Republicans maintain the upper hand during this unprecedented mid-decade redistricting war. Perhaps most consequentially, the GOP supermajority on the U.S. Supreme Court will have the deciding vote when it rules on a voting rights case from Louisiana. At this moment, presuming that the new maps in California and Texas counteract each other, Republicans have picked up two seats in Ohio, one in Missouri and one in North Carolina. The big prize on the table remains Florida, where Governor Ron DeSantis, has suggested he could flip as many as three to five Democratic seats with a new map, Daly wrote.

There is a renewed chatter in Kansas about a January special election to erase the Kansas city area seat currently held by Democrat Charisse Davids. And some lawmakers in New Hampshire continue to push for a mid-decade redraw as well. And now here's what Indiana writers are saying. Some Indiana writers say Trump's, pressure campaign backfired. Others suggest the new map would have only been a short-term win for the GOP. In the Indianapolis star, Jacob Stewart wrote about why Trump's bullying backfired in Indiana and will again. Heritage Action, a conservative advocacy organization, claims Trump, quote,

made it clear all federal funding will be stripped from the state if senators voted against redistricting. Lieutenant Governor Micah Beckwith said the statement was true in a now-deleted social media post responding to my doubts that any legislator had received such a threat from the Trump administration. Stewart said. Stripping federal funding from a state because it decided not to redistrict early is likely unconstitutional and an excellent way to alienate conservatives who already don't trust the federal government.

Redistricting means enshrining Trump's legacy and eternal control over the remains of the GOP. The congressional maps Trump's wants Republicans to draw would give them slight leads based mostly on his performance in the 2024 elections. That would make it very difficult to win a primary without the endorsement of Trump or his followers, Stuart wrote. In the end, Indiana Senate Republicans rejected redistricting

because it was obvious it only elevates one person, President Donald J. Trump. In the Daily Journal, Michael Hick, suggested redistricting is both more and less than it seems. This new map places Muncie and Elkhart in the same district, but the closest route between the two would cross three other congressional districts. Gary and Wabash are weirdly placed together while Northern Marion County, Randolph County, and Southern Jefferson County are in the same district. Thus, a member of Congress would need to drive from 38th Street in Indianapolis to Richmond, then south to

South Jefferson County to traverse that district. Hicks said, this map seems custom made to devalue rural voters. This is undoubtedly true in two ways. First, the new map deconstructs Indianapolis, placing the largest county into four new congressional districts. This amplifies the voice of urban voters by placing the same city into multiple jurisdictions. At the same time, the vast geography of the gerrymander increases is the cost of visiting smaller population centers, Hicks wrote. The immediate effect may be modest, but over two or three election cycles, this could mark a big shift in the urban rural dynamics of political campaigns. It seems likely no one involved in constructing these maps really cares.

It's almost as if the national GOP is unconcerned about the state or the local effects of their policy. All right, that is it for what the right left and Indiana writers are saying, I'm going to pass it over to Isaac to read his take and today's reader question. And then I will jump back in to take us home. For now, I'm going to send it over to you, Isaac. All right, that is it for what the left and the writer saying, which brings us to my take. In some ways, I wish this story weren't.

and even news. Our imperfect political system tends to work well when two parties with ideological differences stand on their principles and wrestle over big divisive policy questions. For a long time, the Republican Party stood for a kind of conservatism that puts a premium on states' rights or small government. But the Trump administration has bulldozed that history by siphoning more and more power toward the executive while demanding state-level politicians like those in Indiana fall in line and that they do it with a smile on their face. What Indiana Republicans did last week harkened back to a not-so-long-long-ago era

when politicians actually made decisions based on their own values and the will of their constituents rather than what might play well nationally with the party leaders. They decided an important issue on principle that this is so rare in the political world as to become a national news story

is remarkable and also a bit depressing. Yet, despite how unremarkable, I wish this were, these Republicans deserve their kudos because it is genuinely rare in 2025, and because the environment they did it in was not particularly friendly. For starters, gerrymandering is a bipartisan scourge, and we've seen how easy it is to get dragged into the mud. We should never normalize politicians choosing their voters rather than the other way around, yet President Trump has now openly made it his mission to squeeze as many Republicans into the houses

possible with or without the customary impetus of a census. The consequences of this entire mid-decade redistricting push from both parties should fall at his feet. He is unambiguously and unabashedly pushing every Republican state to game the system in his favor. Republicans started this effort in Texas at Trump's behest. Democrats in the state went so far as to flee the state to try to nip it in the bud. And when that didn't work, Democratic leaders across the country started gerrymandering efforts of their own, both abandoning their principles and standing up to Trump at the same time. Their options weren't great.

Either sit on your hands and get steamrolled by Trump's efforts, thus seating more power to the guy pushing for radical mid-decade redistricting, or fight back and try to even the scales, but abandon your principles along the way, or let Trump hang himself politically by doing something unpopular and then hope you can win back the House in 2026, even without the advantage of more Jerry. re-mandering. Republicans will probably only pick up a few new seats in the end, if that,

because of court rulings and what just happened in Indiana, but also because the response from Democrats has been effective, and so much of the country has already gerrymandered into non-competitiveness. The second reason Indiana's GOP deserves its kudos is that saying no to Trump clearly isn't easy for Republicans. For a decade now, Trump's brand of brass knuckle politics has brought the party to heal. The number of rank and file willing to bucket. his wishes has dwindled, and those who do oppose him usually end up out of politics shortly after. The examples keep on coming, but Marjorie Taylor Green was just the latest. But what has made the Indiana GOP stand successful, and what might insulate them from too much damage,

is that they made it together. No single name is taking the heat in the media. Instead, a large group of Republican state senators rejected the proposal and rebuked Trump's rotten goals. In this case, the pressure was real. Vice President J.D. Vanne, Vance visited Indiana twice to try to turn the screws. Indiana politicians were getting death threats and having their homes swatted. Even the sister organization of the Heritage Foundation, which once genuinely stood for principles like state's rights, joined the Trump Pressure Brigade.

Before their vote, Heritage Action warned Indiana's Republicans that they would lose their state its federal funding, road maintenance, guard bases, and major projects if they didn't pass the map. Fortunately, Indiana's GOP had the sense to look around at all of this and think, we're not crazy about how the White House is doing business. The president didn't help his case either by calling Tim Walls a retard on social media. One Indiana state senator has a daughter with Down syndrome and said he'd vote no after

Trump's use of the word. How refreshing it is to learn that violating the most basic lowest bars of human decency can still have a negative effect on political outcomes in 2025. go figure. Third, and importantly, is that the Indiana GOP was not alone here. Not only did they stand together, but they also included the public in the debate, an actual walking embodiment of what our country is supposed to stand for. Rather than hide from their constituents, as so many of our national representatives are now doing, Indiana's GOP voted only after listening to 100 members of the Indiana public testify before the state legislature. It took four hours. The vast majority of

the public urge them to stand strong and resist the push from the White House, and not just Democrats or never Trump Republicans. It's not just politics, Ethan Hatcher, a local radio host who voted for Trump in the last two elections, told the legislature, it's a calculated assault on fair representation. All of this culminated in a moment that has genuine significance and deserves earnest quotas. A group of Republicans, under immense pressure from their own party to do the wrong thing, stuck to their principles, listened to their constituents, and did the right thing. Of course, this doesn't mean that the entire national gerrymandering effort is now in jeopardy. The most likely scenario is that it will cost the party two house seats, which I suppose

could end up being the margin for control of Congress in 2026. However, Republicans now have to consider an increasingly realistic worst-case scenario, that they'll lose the midterms by double digits and lose their control of Congress. The question now is how many other Republican states might follow Indiana's example. What impact will this have on the psyche of politicians who have that voice in their head telling them this doesn't look right? The president and party leader bullying state politicians mocking a man who is just murdered alongside his wife or calling for elected Democrats to be tried for treason. How many will realize it's not only possible to stick to their values and vote their consciences, but that having a backbone is also actually

politically advantageous? My hope, sincerely, is that it's more than just a handful. Maybe a group of Hoosiers, otherwise unknown to the national public, could start a nationwide anti-jerrymandering movement and help pull us back to some of our better angels. Wouldn't that be nice? We'll be right back after this quick break. All right, that is it for my take today, which brings us to your questions.

answer. This one's from Sophie in Smelterville, Idaho. Sophie said, how is the Warner Bros. buyout by Netflix or Paramount or whoever not getting shut down for Monopoly stuff? Is there a percentage of content, subscribers, et cetera, that a potential merge has to hit before it starts on these alarm bells? All right, this is a complicated one. Answering this question just requires some context. So on December 5th, Netflix emerged as the winner of a bidding war with Paramount Skydance and Comcasts to acquire the streaming and studio arms of Warner Bros. Discovery, or WBD, at an $87.2 billion price point. Paramount is not giving up the ship, though.

They are pursuing a hostile takeover bid to put a higher price point in front of shareholders to purchase the entirety of the company. These kinds of hostile takeover bids, they don't succeed at a high rate, historically. But two things are working for Paramount. First, they are offering WBD shareholders more money, and second, the company has strong ties to the Trump administration, which could block the Netflix deal theoretically. Still, Netflix's position has its own strengths. First, the acquisition offer is only for the streaming and studio portions of WBD, which includes things like HBO, but not their cable television stations like Discovery or TNT and CNN. Second, the deal has already been accepted, which gives them the inside track.

Now, to your question about what would make either deal prone to being blocked, the DOJ uses a few different metrics for this, but two tend to be especially relevant. First, they consider raw market share. If a merger creates a company with an over 30% share of the market, that can trigger questions about legality. They also use this metric called the Herfendale-Herschman Index, or HHHHHHIS, which squares the market share of firms in the industry then sums them to determine concentration. So even with these clear metrics, the answer to this question is actually unclear. On the one hand, a Netflix WBD merger would exceed the market share for subscription video on demand or streaming services and HHI thresholds that the DOJ could use to block the deal. So whereas a paramount acquisition of Warner Bros. discovery

would not. However, neither deal would be monopolistic if you consider the entire viewing market. So that's movies, television, and social media applications. The Trump factor obviously could raise some different alarms. The president's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, has a material interest in the Paramount offer, and Paramount CEO David Ellison is actively lobbying the Trump administration to block the Netflix deal, even reportedly promising to make significant changes at CNN if Paramount succeeds in its competing bid. So it's all pretty shady and kind of corrupt. I mean, the whole, this is like succession style stuff. They could make an HBO show about that acquisition of a, you know, HBO. But yeah, I don't know what's going to happen is the short

answer. There are definitely some monopolistic things being violated here, but it's not quite so cut and dry. Thanks, Isaac. All right, jumping back in here with our Under the Radar story. On Monday, Attorney General Pam Bondi announced the arrests of four people in an alleged plot to bomb multiple targets in the Los Angeles area on New Year's Eve. According to a criminal complaint, the four are part of a group called the Turtle Island Liberation Front,

which describes itself as dedicated to, quote, liberation through decolonization and tribal sovereignty." Last week, the four allegedly traveled to the Mojave Desert to construct and test the bombs, but were arrested by Federal Bureau of Investigation agents before they assembled the explosives. Based on a document allegedly written by one of the arrestees, the group planned to plant the bombs at five locations

targeting two U.S. companies, though they said they would take measures to ensure no one would be present at the sites when the bombs went off. NBC News has this story, and the link to it is in today's show notes. All right, here are some numbers about today's main story. Donald Trump's margin of victory over Kamala Harris in Indiana in the 2024 presidential election was 18.9%. The number of Republicans in the Indiana House of Representatives is 70, and the number of Democrats is 30. The number of Republicans in the Indiana Senate is 40, and the number of Democrats is 10.

The percentage of Indiana voters who said they supported the state's Republican-led redistricting effort was 39 percent, and the percentage who said they were opposed was 51 percent, according to a bellwether research poll released in November. The number of states that have implemented new congressional maps in 2025 is six. The number that are currently undertaking redistricting is one, and the number that have taken steps to begin the redistricting process is two. And finally, here's today's Have a Nice Day story. In late November, a group of Cub Scouts was hiking in a downpour in the Golden Ears Provincial Park in British Columbia, Canada,

when they came across a washed out river and bridge with three hikers on the other side signaling for help. The hikers were ill-prepared for the weather and may have been forced to spend the night outdoors if the Cub Scouts group had not found them. After contacting authorities to assist with the rescue, the group of elementary school kids gave the teenage hikers food, thermal blankets, and hand-warmers from their own supplies. Quote, we're just so happy that we found them. Kyle Lee, one of the rescued hikers, said,

quote, and then we're just really grateful that they were there. CBC has this story, and again, the link to it's in today's. show notes. All right, that is it for today's edition. Thanks, as always, for listening, and we'll talk to you tomorrow. As John says, peace.

Our executive editor and founder is me. Isaac Saul, and our executive producer is John Wohl. Today's episode was edited and engineered by Dewey Thomas. Our editorial staff is led by managing editor Ari Weitzman with senior editor Will Kayback and associate editors Hunter Casperson, Audrey Moorhead, Bailey Saul, Lindsay Canuth, and Kendall White. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75.

To learn more about Tangle and to sign up for a membership, please visit our website at reetangle.com.