Tangle - INTERVIEW: Ari talks with Christian Paz from Vox

Episode Date: March 26, 2025

If you’ve ever read one of Vox’s famous “Explainer” articles, you’re probably familiar with Christian Paz’s work. His reporting is at the forefront of several animating issues in U.S. politics — immigration, the courts, the cultural impact of the Make America Great Again movement, and more. One recent story of his caught our eye and prompted us to reach out for an interview. The piece — titled “The Democrats’ young man problem is real” — offers a detailed look at the shift away from the Democratic Party among Gen Z in the 2024 election and the factors that are driving the trend. It touches on topics like artificial intelligence, social media, the Democratic brand and the unique appeal of Trump, and Paz makes a compelling argument about how these factors could come into play in 2026, 2028, and beyond. When we reached out to Paz, we were hoping to hear more about the ideological roots of this shift, but the conversation also ended up delving into the structural and cultural forces at play in the United States. Whether you’re on the left, right or center, this is a discussion that highlights probing questions about our political moment and how each party is adapting to a new generation of voters coming into their own. We’re excited to share the conversation and hear from you about the central question it raises: Have Democrats lost an entire generation of men?Ari & the Tangle teamBy the way: If you are not yet a podcast member, and you want to upgrade your newsletter subscription plan to include a podcast membership (which gets you ad-free podcasts, Friday editions, The Sunday podcast, bonus content), you can do that here. That page is a good resource for managing your Tangle subscription (just make sure you are logged in on the website!)Ad-free podcasts are here!Many listeners have been asking for an ad-free version of this podcast that they could subscribe to — and we finally launched it. You can go to ReadTangle.com to sign up! You can also give the gift of a Tangle podcast subscription by clicking here.You can subscribe to Tangle by clicking here or drop something in our tip jar by clicking here. Our Executive Editor and Founder is Isaac Saul. Our Executive Producer is Jon Lall.This podcast was hosted by Ari Weitzman and Isaac Saul and edited and engineered by Jon Lall. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75 and Jon Lall. Our newsletter is edited by Managing Editor Ari Weitzman, Senior Editor Will Kaback, Hunter Casperson, Kendall White, Bailey Saul, and Audrey Moorehead.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

With the Fizz loyalty program, you get rewarded just for having a mobile plan. You know, for texting and stuff. And if you're not getting rewards like extra data and dollars off with your mobile plan, you're not with Fizz. Switch today. Conditions apply. He said he killed another woman. Inspired by a true life story. If I don't deal with him, he will never leave us alone. You don't see how the words sing to you.

Annali Ashford and Dennis Quaid star. I am not responsible for what my dad did. It's going how you hoped. Happy Face, new series now streaming exclusively on Paramount+. Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening. And welcome to the Tangle podcast, a place where you get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking, and a little bit of our take. I'm your host for today, Tangle managing editor Ari Weitzman, and I'm going to be interviewing

Christian Paz today. Christian is a senior politics reporter at Vox. He covers the Democratic Party and recently wrote about the 2024 election pretty extensively. He also reports on political trends, issues, movements, changing America's political parties, and American identity in general. He joined Vox in 2022 after reporting on national and international politics for the Atlantic, and he's written extensively about identity and voting and the 2020 election, the 2024 election. He and I got together to talk about the young men problem

that the Democrats are having. So an article that he wrote a couple of weeks ago in Vox broke down what the issue is with Democrats. He advanced some theories that he thought was causing this issue that I found interesting. And we're gonna take them one at a time. So he is a structural component to the Democrats young men problem, a Trump specific component, and a cultural slash education slash gender broad bucket explanation for it. So I sat down with Christian, we broke the article down,

we talked about what these problems are, what we think the Democrats can do about it, and the state of democratic electoral politics going forward. It's a fun interview and I think you guys are really going to enjoy it. So without any further ado, here's my conversation with Christian. Okay, Christian, thanks for joining us to talk about the Democrats' young man problem today. How are you doing? I'm hanging in there.

I'm also just generally curious about how young men, one, whether they tuned into Trump's address this week, and two, what they thought of it. Because one of the main reasons why I've been really interested in this question was he was pretty popular with this group of people last year. Technically, I'm one of them. I'm a cusper. I'm somewhere between millennial and Gen Z. But I'm not necessarily the kind of person that ended up making a difference for the Democrats or for the Republicans last year. And, you know, I'm somebody who's obviously works in journalism, cares about politics, cares about the news. And that's largely not the kind of young man that tends to be, or that's not necessarily the cohort that Democrats are really reaching, or I guess

pretty different from the cohort that Democrats needed to reach last year. And let's explore a little bit more what that cohort is. So you've written this article for Vox describing the young man problem that we've seen in the electorate, whether or not those people watched Trump's speech from last night, so sitting here recording Wednesday, March 5th, following President Trump's sort of State of the Union has addressed to Congress that sort of functioned as a State of the Union. I couldn't answer the question of how young men responded to that.

You're more of a young man than I am, I think, at this stage. I'm a full-blown millennial, so I may not be in that core hoat either. But the things that I want to try to get from you is, maybe let's start there. Let's start with, what is this problem that you're talking about, that you talked about in this article for Vox?

What is the Democrats' young man problem? And how real is it? Yeah. So I think when people talk about the young man problem, or if there is a problem They tend to go back to look at the results of the election in November In that case you had a swing of young voters of all kind toward the Republican Party Kamala Harris had a pretty historically small advantage with this demographic

And when you unpack based off of exit polling data and other surveys taken since the election, what you get is three kinds of swings among young voters. You have young women, young white women swinging to the right, young white men swinging to the right, and young Latino men swinging to the right. So there you have something that looks more than just, you know, it's young white men that are leaving the Democrats.

It's young men of all races that move to the right. And you then look back to previous election results, right, and compare that to voter registration trends and then to what we can tell about this demographics, political ideology shifting over the last 10 to 15 years. And what you get is a picture of both gradual leftward drift of young women and therefore aligning with a leftward drift of the democratic party, but not necessarily a rise in democratic partisan identification among young women.

Instead, what you get is, on the other side is young men identifying more as Republicans, but not necessarily identifying as more conservative per se. They're still primarily moderate, and you saw the good share that are liberal. And so that picture looks a lot more complicated than just what happened in one election. Since when we're looking at a few different figures over 10 to 15 years, you see a loss in partisan loyalty among young men for the Democrats that isn't necessarily accompanied with a disagreement on the issues. They're still primarily more progressive or more liberal than previous generations of men more progressive or more liberal than previous generations of men when it comes to climate change, pro-life versus pro-choice, when it comes to marriage equality, when it comes to even some economic issues. They're still much more progressive. But then you get to this election last year where then why did this shift happen if the Democrats were casting themselves

as much more progressive perhaps than Trump or as the antithesis of Trump again? What else can explain that? So there is definitely a problem. It seems like it's more than just, or I guess the way that I try to break it out is there's both something that's, or there's something that's Trump specific, something that's maybe specific to the state of the world post-pandemic,

and then there's something about the Democrats specifically that they're doing wrong. And let's get into each of those in turn, but starting with a little bit of a restatement of premise here. So it's not that young men are alone in shifting towards the right. As we saw in the election, there was a rightward shift across demographics pretty broadly. But what you're saying is there are a couple groups, young white women and young men of varying races, but most dramatically young white men and young Latino men who have shifted to favor Trump in the last presidential election. So just want to make sure I'm restating that accurately and also stating again that you

are clarifying this is not young men are shifting to become more conservative per se based off of alignment with issues, but that young men are shifting to vote for the candidates who represent the Republican Party, which is a different statement, but it's an important distinction to make. So I want to make sure I'm getting that stuff right so far. Yeah, that's right. And it's hard to try to make that, or it's important to make that distinction, because it feels especially since November, like the conversations that the leads are having, that folks, uh, in various other media spaces are having are that, you know, Democrats did tremendously awful, uh, because they're too liberal or maybe that it's young men.

Too woke. Right. Or that young men have become reactionary and that they're all incels and that they're all, you know, suddenly anti-feminist and anti-woke and are therefore running into roves to become more conservative or take more conservative positions on things. We'll be right back after this quick commercial break. With the Fizz loyalty program, you get rewarded just for having a mobile plan. You know, for texting and stuff. And if you're not getting rewards like extra data and dollars off with your mobile plan, you're not with Fizz.

Switch today. Conditions apply. Details at F with Fizz. Switch today. Conditions apply, details at Fizz.ca. Now streaming. What do you know about the happy face killer? He's my father. It's so good to see you, Missy. Experience the thrilling new series.

He said he killed another woman. Inspired by a true life story. If I don't deal with him, he will never leave us alone. You don't see how the words sang to you. Annali Ashford and Dennis Quaid star. I am not responsible for what my dad did. This going how you hoped. Happy Face, new series now streaming exclusively on Paramount Plus. There's a couple different causes for this that you're theorizing. One of them was post-COVID, something that you term as more of a structural issue, something that's specific to the candidates, in particular Trump, and something that is a little broader. So cultural, education, gender,

more squishy stuff that kind of bucket together.. Starting with the structural, I know that one of your former colleagues at the Atlantic, Derek Thompson's been writing a lot about anti-incumbency across the world. As US news consumers, it's very easy to look at our political moment through just the lens of our moment and not broaden the scope to see the global lens.

Something that you've been highlighting, as well as Derek at The Atlantic, is that this is not specific to the US, that there is a push to move away from whichever party was the incumbent party during the pandemic. And we can see these post-pandemic pressures just rippling out through politics right now. And that's sort of number one, right?

Right, that there is something that is happening in various Western democracies. We see it, we saw it in France, we just saw it in Germany with Germany's federal elections with young voters, you know, either shifting toward voting for AFD, the far right party or voting for the far left party instead of those mainstream parties

or the incumbents who did especially bad. And that we see some of that replicating itself in the US where Democrats came to be viewed as the establishment, as they were the incumbents, even though there was a candidate switch. This gets back to the question of whether Kamala Harris was too close to Biden or didn't do enough to differentiate herself.

And that that is, you know, the Trump pandemic, Democratic presidency of Joe Biden, are the experiences that a lot of young people, including young men, had with politics, had with the status quo, and, you know, and that the party itself took on the mantle of being pro-institution, pro-establishment. And that, to me, sounds like something that could really pervade past this section of

young men. When we're talking about a global shift that we see in the US, part of that contextualization helps me understand we're maybe dramaticizing this shift more than it actually exists and also that when you compare it against other rightward shifts, this rightward shift or shift towards voting for the more rightward candidates of the alignment with Republican party in the last election amongst young men. This structural post-COVID lens kind of tells me it's not really as much of it is causal, but it's causal in a way that pervades different segments of the population. So maybe isn't specific to young men and helps us understand in context. actually, this isn't as dramatic as it might seem at first.

Yeah, I think that's right. Because it, and that's why I thought it was important to start off with that kind of structural, bigger picture frame, because both of these parties in the US have spent either, has spent the last few months either gloating about the advantages that they had or beating themselves up over it or, you know, on the democratic side also, we're trying to deny that it was a thing. And it's, and so that's why I think it's important to note

that these were, in a way, like maybe it was kind of doomed to happen anyway, for the Democrats. So it might not necessarily be smart to assume that this part of the electorate is lost because it probably isn't. And you mentioned a couple other things. So I wanna get to the Trump specific stuff last, I think. And so starting on this cultural education gender, broader cultural bucket to try to describe or explain the shift amongst young men. And one of the things that stuck out to me as I'm hearing your argument and I want to let you sort of expound on it yourself here,

is that we know that there's more particular correlations with leftward shifts in young women over the last 10 years and that there's a particular correlations with leftward shifts in young women over the last 10 years and that there's a correlation with leftward alignment as education rate, as the education of whatever segment it is is up. So you get this sort of perfect storm of if you're a college educated woman, you tend to be very democratic. So there's a little bit of a contrast there that I'm wondering if this is all explainable way through just the education element. If there's more and more women are getting college degrees proportionately to young men

and more and more people with college degrees vote democratic, are we maybe trying to disentangle variables where it's simpler? And the simple story could just be, well, the Democratic Party is the party of the college-educated class and a lot more young men proportionally than women aren't college-educated and maybe it's that simple. Or am I oversimplifying? No, I don't think that's oversimplifying. I think that's, I mean, there's definitely a little more, you know, nuance layer that

I try to unpack because I think that in that this third section that I'm trying to describe, there's both kind of bottom up pressures being that what you're describing, which is you have more women who are better, better educated, which leads them to be more open to the democratic pitch over the last five years, more willing to take socially liberal positions because they identify as more socially liberal to begin with. And that leads them to vote for the democrats. And then at the same time, some kind of top down pressures or changes of a democratic party that in turn seeing that moves further to the left stops itself with people who are maybe more to the progressive left to then the mainstream electorate or than young men are to begin with. Or if they are recruiting younger people to try to do this

outreach and campaign work, they're not as representative of the people that they needed to reach last year. And so I think that in that way, I kind of made that third bucket almost like there are education polarization happening, there is gender realignment happening on that line. And at the same time, Democrats have been making that worse for themselves. And when you say people who are representing the democratic message towards the section of the electorate aren't representative of that section of the electorate. Yeah. I want to see if you can offer some specifics about what that means.

Like, where's that lack of representation observable? This is something that I did some digging in toward the end of last year when I was doing a post-mortem on these youth groups, what they did, what they think they did right, what they think they did wrong, and you know they got the turnout that they wanted, they got young people to get to the polls, it's just that those young people wanted to vote for a Republican candidate for president. And what that looks like is the fact that a lot of these organizations, people who work within the party,

are naturally interested in politics, care about politics, care about institutions, care about the party, care about the candidates. And so in that way, they're fundamentally different from the voters that they needed who don't care about politics, don't care about the news, distrust the institutions, distrust the institutions, distrust the establishment, maybe have a branding problem with the Democrats. There's the fact that they're probably better educated and recruited from elite schools or from highly selected public schools in a way that's different from community colleges or smaller state schools that have a lot of these young voters and young men who they needed to get to the polls.

And then are also themselves both more progressive on the issues, you know, probably identify more to the left than these voters that they were trying to reach, probably are more diverse. And that does have a bit of like a double-edged sword aspect to it because you want diversity in your organizations but maybe that isn't necessarily as representative of like the vast majority of like young white men or white women that you're trying to reach and so that makes it a little bit more challenging. And the last one is just like, these folks also want to have future careers in the Democratic Party and so maybe weren't as willing to like speak up about what the party was doing wrong. That makes sense.

So the couple of things that you're highlighting are that the people who are representing the Democrats in order to help turn out the youth vote aren't the people who by and large make up the median voter or the set of median voters in that youth vote, where there are people who are probably have more time, more free time, so a little bit more economically advanced who if they're college educated, they're not representing the median college educated voter

who is a community college graduate, maybe a little bit more progressive, maybe because they're motivated to have a more political career. That all makes sense to me, and especially when you add in the normal calculus, traditional calculus of the Democratic Party, which is any youth turnout is good because you assume the numbers are going to be in your favor. And when the numbers are a little different it's not quite the same and that baby Lisa the third bucket which is the Trump specific the Trump of it all so Trump of it all there's something specific about Trump that is driving these voters more so than other Republicans what what is that there's a lot here right and I think

it gets like and this is it gets me back to the original, you know, reason why I wanted to do this story now, which is a conversation that I saw both, you know, happening at the University of Chicago's Institute of Politics over whether, and that turned into a whole week long conversation about whether Democrats are too feminine or feminine or not masculine enough,

or whether Democrats themselves are just emasculated in some way because they lack masculine candidates or representatives to reach men. And it is interesting because there is something unique about Trump that allows him to exist both above and outside of the two-party liberal conservative kind of divide in the minds of a lot of these young voters and young men specifically, who maybe don't necessarily remember all of the Republican Party's legacy,

what the Republican Party's traditional platform used to be. Some of them probably weren't even old enough to vote in the last time that Trump ran for president. Exactly. And in that time, Trump himself evolved tremendously, shifting wheat weather from 2016 to 2020 from a very anti-immigrant message to something that was a lot more economy focused in 2020, pandemic specific, and then shifting back into a more reactionary immigration message. So there's been some shifts there. And I think when you point out that memory and that experience of when they

vote, when these young people could vote, when young men could vote, they see, you know, Trump existing as a way to almost break the two party system, somebody who broke the Republicans and who isn't the Democrats. And so maybe these young people don't necessarily trust the Republican Party or don't know what it stands for. And they definitely don't trust the Democrats and they don't trust the establishment and the incumbents. And so see Trump as somebody who they can make a wager on and who, you know, it reminds you of the old line of like, do you take Trump seriously or literally?

And a lot of these folks, you know, were willing to, you know, bypass that question and just say, you know what, whatever he does, he's promising change, there was a better economy. And that makes sense. And combine that with the fact that, and this is something that just like, as somebody who is an elder gen Z, or I guess, guess like blows my mind a bit. But so many younger men specifically in my reporting all of last year, like there was something about the lack of a stigma associated with Trump in that in that year of campaigning where he did seem more relatable, he did seem more personable, he did seem like not like you could if you were listening to him and then hearing the democratic argument about him being a fascist or a threat to democracy, etc. There was just something that didn't resonate between those two points.

And when you see that person and that personality manifests itself through TikTok, through podcasts, through live streams, through, you know, appearances with influencers, you know, at UFC matches or going to a, you know, NASCAR race. There's just something about that Trump persona that makes you kind of dub, take a, take a, take a second look at him and say, wait a minute, he's not as bad as, as they've been telling me he is. We'll be right back after this quick commercial break. It's so good to see you, Missy. Experience the thrilling new series. He said he killed another woman. Inspired by a true life story. If I don't deal with him, he will never leave us alone. You don't see how the birds sing to you. Annali Ashford and Dennis Quaid star. I am not responsible for what my dad did.

Let's go in how you hoped. Happy Face, new series now streaming exclusively on Paramount Plus. With the Fizz loyalty program you get rewarded just for having a mobile plan. You know for texting and stuff and if you're not getting rewards like extra data and dollars off with your mobile plan you're not with Fizz. Switch today conditions apply details at fizz.ca. So it sounds like there's sort of, you know, when you look at it from a politico mindset, you're a person who thinks, I understand the way the board's set and how people have been evolving over time and the sort of old cliche of if you're young and not a liberal, you don't have a heart and if you're old, you're not a conservative, you don't have a brain. We transpose all of these ideas onto the way we look at the younger generation. But when you put on the cap of a person who is in that generation,

who's 18 to 26, who's considering who they're going to vote for, they're not thinking about that history. They're not thinking about actually you're in the middle of a global anti-incumbency moment. Actually, there's a rightward shift in general amongst Republican candidates that is shared across demographics. It's not just you. What you're seeing is my segment's a little different. I'm not represented in the thing that the Democrats are putting forward and the people they're putting forward and the message they're putting forward. I don't see the danger they're telling me to feel in this Trump person.

I don't see the danger they're telling me to feel on the platform. I feel alienated. I'm making a choice that makes more sense for the things I'm seeing and for the messages that I'm being told. That almost feels like kind of the point that I'm taking from you.

Yeah, and a corollary to that, feels like kind of the point that I'm taking from you. Yeah, and a corollary to that, instead the people that are making me feel insecure and creating the conditions for me to feel insecure in the country, in the national economy, in my future in higher education are the Democrats, are the party in power. And they've almost taken on by, seems like seemingly by accident, the mantle of the establishment

party by being pro-institution. Trump wants to remove, now we're getting a little field, I'll bring us right back, but Trump wants to remove funding to a bunch of different federal agencies. The Democrats are saying he can't do that. So they're now putting in a position where they're defending the federal government and the state of the federal government. And that brings me to the next, my final question to you, which is, if this is a real thing, this Democratic Party issue with the young male voter, what are they doing about it? Are they just back

peddling in a position that makes it worse, like we were just talking about? Or is it going to be what we led with, which is it's probably a temporary thing. It might just be Trump specific. When you look at the issues, these people are going to come back around. Are the Democrats saying, hold the line, it's fine? Or are they trying to change course in some way? Well, they're kind of shooting each other right now.

They're kind of in that circular... Okay, that's a good option. For a circular firing squad still because you I just I was shocked by this I alluded to this in the piece but I don't think we named her but one of the democrats primary spokespeople right now is representative jasmine crocket from texas and it was very wild to me that after the election one of the first things that she said or one of the most viral moments that she had on TV was to almost tease mediocre white bros. And I just didn't understand why that would be something that you would say when that was the cohort that you lost,

and that contributed to losses all around the country. So I mean, don't do that is one thing. But there is a little bit of like internal argument going on among Democrats because on the one hand, that popularity that I mentioned at the start has been trending down and that's largely driven by the fact that young men are also not necessarily confident that Trump is taking the economic steps that they want him to take, the reason why so many of them were willing to make that wager on being welcomed by him.

And maybe there is some disaffection there that just happens naturally as the result of a presidential honeymoon period ending. And then at the same time, I think that there's some division among Democrats over just how much to cater is, you know, quote unquote cater to young straight men, young straight white men, given that that hasn't been the priority of the party over the last few years. And the worry being

like, oh, by taking this young man mess, you know, problem seriously, does that mean that we then have to pay less attention to the marginalized groups that we traditionally also have been taking the mantle on to defend and uplift? So one person, for example, told me it's, you know, two things can be true, we can acknowledge that we have these problems, and that we need to craft a specific message and identity and platform that speaks to economic insecurity that they feel to educational opportunities that they're falling behind in, that speaks to them being welcome within the party, given that one thing that we didn't really get into. of almost like feeling insecure about affirmative action, DEI, like specific identity issues that the Democratic Party has taken on a mantle of

have in a lot of polling and surveys and focus groups have turned off a lot of these young men, feeling that they're being left behind. So taking into account both of those sides is the challenge that the party has right now. But this is where the stakes matter is that these are young people. Your politics kind of gets cemented around these years when you're being exposed to the electoral system, when you're being exposed to external factors like Trump, like the pandemic or before the recession. And that's why it's crucial for, I think,

both parties to acknowledge that these young men and young voters in general aren't lost or guaranteed to be part of your coalition forever. And that you can leave some of it up to the structural anti-incumbency effects again, but without presenting a legitimate and coherent message, without reaching these people where they are going on these podcasts, or lifting up voices outside of politics that can be considered more legitimate

than like Hakeem Jeffries or Chuck Schumer trying to talk to young men, you're not going to make much progress. Yeah. And it sounds like, I don't want to be too judgmental here, but it sounds like there's a little bit of a broken lens through which to look at this, where you're saying, oh, it's an issue with how we're identifying as a party and how people can identify with us. But at the same time, we want to make identity central to the way that we position the party. It's an issue with how we're identifying as a party and how people can identify with us. But at the same time, we want to make identity central to the way that we position the party. So trying to do both of those things at once to say, we want to be a coalition of identity-based diversity while at the same time saying, but also the issue should be important, but we're

not going to prioritize them, but we are going to be the party of issues. It just seems like they're trying to do a couple of things at once when it might be just more simple to choose one and say, we're a party for everybody identity, like it doesn't matter, let's do issues or go all the way the other way and say, we're going to be the minority party through and through. And it seems like it's hard to do both. It's hard to do both and you know not to blame it all on the two-party presidential system. Go ahead let's do it and wrap. But I mean but that also that also factors in right like if you had a parliamentary system you'd have multiple parties representing both the right and the left and you we wouldn't have to have the conversation about the Democrats being lost in their identity

every four years and then who knows right maybe nobody will learn these lessons because it's gonna be a midterm year next year and the highest engaged highest informed young people will turn out and then we'll get another kind of broken exactly exactly a broken idea of what's happening. Well, my money's on, we're gonna learn some of the right lessons and some of the wrong lessons and then we're gonna be back talking about some new problem Democrats are having and whether or not their stance of, why don't people vote for us, are they stupid? Whether or not it's the right stance.

I'll be, and I'll look forward to having that conversation again with you then. Well that'll make one of us. I'll look forward to having a conversation with you either way. Christian, thanks for joining us today to talk about this. Definitely complex and simple at the same time and something that I think we're going to be watching for the next two years before the midterms. Absolutely. It was a pleasure to be here and chat with you.

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Experience the thrilling new series. He said he killed another woman. Inspired by a true life story. If I don't deal with him, he will never leave us alone. You don't see how the births sang to him. Anna Lee Ashford and Dennis Quaid star. I am not responsible for what my dad did. This going how you hoped? Happy Face, new series now streaming exclusively on Paramount+.