Tangle - It's Election Day.

Episode Date: November 8, 2022

We're giving our final preview and rundown of the midterms, what we're watching, and what to expect. Plus, a question about Isaac's perfect voting system.Read our full midterm primer here.Read our previous 2022 midterm coverage here.Read Isaac's piece on why you should vote here.Find your personalized sample ballot here.You can read today's podcast here, today’s “Under the Radar” story here, and today’s “Have a nice day” story here.Today’s clickables: Quick hits (2:32), Today’s story (3:38), Right’s take (8:54), Left’s take (13:26), Isaac’s take (18:20), Listener question (21:40), Under the Radar (23:36), Numbers (24:24), Have a nice day (25:10)You can subscribe to Tangle by clicking here or drop something in our tip jar by clicking here.Our podcast is written by Isaac Saul and produced by Trevor Eichhorn. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75.Our newsletter is edited by Bailey Saul, Sean Brady, Ari Weitzman, and produced in conjunction with Tangle’s social media manager Magdalena Bokowa, who also created our logo.--- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/tanglenews/message Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages six months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at flucellvax.ca.

From executive producer Isaac Saul, this is Tangle. Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening, and welcome to the Tangle podcast, the place where we get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking without all that hysterical nonsense you find everywhere else. I'm Isaac Saul, and it is election day, so we obviously have a ton to cover. I know many of you might be listening to this on your way to voting. If you're not, well, you should be. Before we jump in, though, I do have to announce the winner from a competition that was in yesterday's newsletter. I know many of you just listened to the podcast, so you may have missed it.

But in the newsletter yesterday, I released a photograph of where I was and asked readers to guess where I was and said I would give out a free hoodie to whoever guessed correctly. So I want to shout out Bev from Southern California. One hour and 19 minutes after the newsletter went out, Bev correctly guessed that I was in Taos, New Mexico, where I'll be for the next couple days visiting some family before heading to Palm Desert, California. The most common guesses for the photo were Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Utah, and just two other readers guessed New Mexico and one guessed Alamogado, New Mexico, which was not

far from where I am. I asked Bev if they wanted to say something about Tangle and this was their response, which was really nice, so I've decided to read it. Over the last year or so, I've been on a quest to find balanced reporting. I am sick of all the murder, mayhem, catastrophes, and most of all, the political bashing that goes on in the media. I believe the media isn't really interested in informing people of issues, they are merely interested in making money. In their view, hysteria sells, whether it's newsprint or commercials. I believe they are fear-mongering as well. My point is this. I read Tangle because both sides are presented with facts only, no opinions until you get to the bottom of the report, no hysteria. I appreciate Isaac Saul's opinion at the end, but if I want to make up my own mind rather than be swayed by yet another journalist,

I can skip that part of the report. Well done, Tangle. I hope there are other journalists who follow suit. Thank you, Bev, for the kind words and the encouragement on days like today when it's kind of crazy out there in the world. It means a lot. All right, so with that, we'll get into it with today's Quick Hits. First up, on the final days of campaign season, former presidents Donald Trump and Barack Obama both campaigned in Pennsylvania. Number two, Twitter owner Elon Musk, who said he has always voted for Democrats, endorsed Republicans in Congress, saying he supported a divided government. Number three, Yevgeny Pergozin, the Russian oligarch and close ally of Putin, admitted that he has helped interfere in U.S. elections in the past and would

continue to do so in the future. Number four, the Russian-occupied city of Kherson lost power over the weekend before an expected counteroffensive from Ukrainian forces that analysts say may come later this week. Number five, China recorded a six-month high in COVID-19 cases with over 5,500 in a single day. Number six, a little bonus quick hit, former President Donald Trump said he has, quote, a very big announcement, end quote, planned for November 15th. It is expected that he will be announcing a third campaign for the presidency. Midterm Election Day is here with candidates making their final appeals to voters to the last hour. While it's unclear which races Republicans and Democrats will win,

what is certain is that this election looks different for voters across the U.S. These midterms come amid the highest inflation we've seen in 40 years, so it's no surprise the economy is a major issue for voters. Yeah, an interesting range of possibilities just in terms of that question of when we're going to know. And a reminder, we say every vote counts, every seat counts here. On Tuesday, millions of voters across the country will head to the polls to elect members of the U.S. House and Senate. There are also dozens of gubernatorial races, as well as races to fill the state legislature and decide ballot initiatives. By Monday evening, some 44 million Americans had already voted. Currently, the Senate is split 50-50,

with Vice President Kamala Harris holding the tie-breaking vote. Democrats hold a slim 220-212 majority over Republicans in the House, and Republicans have 28 governorships to Democrats' 22. Real clear politics currently gives Republicans a 48% to 45.3% edge on an average of generic congressional ballots, while 538 gives Republicans a 46.9% to 45.7% edge. In the Senate, where it is split 50-50, there are currently 14 Democrat controlled seats and 21 Republican controlled seats up for election in this Senate cycle. According to Cook Political Report's final ratings, there are eight solid Democrat seats, one likely Democrat seat, and two lean Democrat seats. Meanwhile, there are 14 solid Republican seats, three likely Republican seats, and three lean Republican seats, which means there are four toss-up races that are likely to decide control of the Senate. Pennsylvania,

Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. Currently, 538's model predicts Republicans win a Senate majority 59 out of 100 times when they run their simulation. In the House, Democrats hold a slim 220-212 majority over Republicans. 218 seats is the magic number for a majority. According to Cook Political's latest ratings, there are 159 solid Democrat seats, 13 likely Democrat races, and 15 lean Democrat races. Meanwhile, there are 188 solid Republican seats, 11 likely Republican seats, and 13 lean Republican seats. There are 36 toss-up races in the House. In other words, if Republicans and Democrats all win the races they are expected to win, Republicans would have to win just 6 of the 36 toss-up races to gain a majority, while Democrats would have to win 31

of 36 to keep theirs. Currently, 538's model predicts Republicans will win a House majority 84 of 100 times when they run their simulation. In the gubernatorial races, Republicans control 28 governorships while Democrats control 22. There are 16 Democratic and 20 Republican-held governorships on the ballot, and there are five rated as toss-up races. That's in Kansas, Nevada, Oregon, Wisconsin, and Arizona. In our episode description today, you will find a few links. You can find a link to our full midterm primer. You can find all of our previous 2022 midterm coverage in written form, and you can also find my call out, which we published on the podcast last week, asking all of you to vote.

Also, you can find a personalized sample ballot that we linked to in our episode description if you're interested in seeing what is on the ballot where you live before you go to the polls today. A quick important note also, As was true in 2020, some states, including the critical swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, still do not allow local officials to begin processing mail-in ballots before election day. That means we may not have the full results

until Wednesday or Thursday, or if the races are extremely close, even later. In Georgia, if no Senate candidate gets 50% of the vote and we have a runoff election, the outcome may not be decided until December 6th. Tomorrow, we'll be running another podcast and newsletter on the midterms with the known results, reactions to those results, and the best updates we can provide on the races that are still undecided. We'll continue to cover the results of the election and commentary about those results throughout the week as needed. Today, we're going to take a look at some final thoughts

from the right and the left headed into the election and then my take. First up, we'll start with what the right is saying. Many on the right expect to take control of the House and Senate and say Democrats are paying the price for their policies. Some say Democrats are trying to distract voters from their policies by purporting that democracy is at risk. Others say the left-wing media is finally waking up to reality. In The Federalist, Margo Cleveland said democracy isn't at risk, Democrats are, so they want to avoid substantive issues. Rather than sell voters on why Democrats will be better representatives, the democracy-at-risk pitch pretends that electing Republicans

will destroy the very democratic process the voters just engaged in. It is both silly and a circularly self-negating theory, Cleveland said. In contrast, Republican candidates running for everything from school board member to state legislator or governor to House representative or senator are hammering the harm that has befallen our country since Democrats took over less than two years ago. Inflation, high gas prices, still rising interest rates, and a recession represent the pocketbook issues voters place atop their list of concerns. The open border, high crime rates, and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, which has siphoned off billions from U.S. taxpayers, add to the anti-Democrat sentiments. And while Democrats

thought the Supreme Court's reversal of Roe provided them a trump card for the midterm elections, the key constituent group targeted with promises to codify Roe, suburban women, showed instead more concern over the current dire economic conditions, she said. Those bread-and-butter issues, coupled with anger over the shutdown of schools and the harm inflicted on their children, seem to have pushed suburban moms to the right. The sexualization of youth and the growing indoctrination of kids in trans ideology in schools, and especially the opening of girls' locker rooms and sports teams to boys, are also prompting moderate Democrats to vote Republican, some for the first time in their lives. In National

Review, Jim Garrity said the red tsunami is coming into view. I think one of the big stories of the 2022 midterms is how much the dynamics haven't changed. This looked like a big GOP wave year back in the spring, it looked like a more modest GOP wave year in mid-summer, and it steadily looked more and more like a big GOP wave year as autumn progressed, he said. I also think a lot of the Democrats will keep the House and gain seats in the Senate talks since summer amounted to Democratic and media wish-casting, seeing what they wanted to see instead of what was there. Throughout the summer and fall, I thought Republicans were going to win 20 to 25 House seats and finish with at least 51 Senate seats, a pretty good wave year. Now that we're at elections eve, I think we're on the higher end of a red wave year and approaching red tsunami

territory. For the past week or so, my back of the envelope math envisioned a GOP House majority somewhere between 229 and 241, and I'm sticking to that. Give the Republicans the 212 seats in Cook Political Report, with two-thirds of the 35 races in toss-up category, and you end up with 235 Republicans and 200 Democrats, so put those down as my final prediction numbers, he said. By midnight Eastern, we probably won't have sufficient results to declare a winner in Pennsylvania or Wisconsin, and Georgia is likely to go to a runoff. With Bullduck, Laxalt, and Johnson winning, I come out to a 51-48 GOP advantage by the end of the week, with Walker and Warnock headed to a runoff. It wouldn't shock me if Oz or Masters both won,

giving Republicans a 53 or 54 seat majority. The Wall Street Journal editorial board said the liberal media is finally waking up. The midterm election isn't over until the votes of suburban women sing, but you can tell Democrats are in trouble by reading the liberal columnists in the last couple of days. The angst is palpable, and they've begun to blame Democrats for their strategy and communication, the board said. The news here is that these pre-mortems, and we could point to many others, are coming from progressive writers who want Democrats to win. They're upset that the polls are predicting a rough night on Tuesday, and they're getting their licks in early to knock their allies for losing to, agad, those evil Republicans. This is the same media crowd

that supported Democrats when they defunded police in 2020 and poo-pooed the summer riots that ruined entire neighborhoods, the board said. The same crowd that jeered at doubters who warned that the American Rescue Plan Act of March 2021 was spending way too much in an already recovering economy. And the same crowd that supported school and business pandemic shutdowns that inspired a voter backlash. We and others warned about all this, but too many Democrats and their media allies live in a progressive bubble and ignore competing ideas. If Democrats lose Tuesday, one reason will be this closed ideological feedback loop. All right, that is it for what the right is saying, which brings us to

what the left is saying. Many on the left worry about losing seats in the House and Senate and fear election deniers coming into power. Some urge voters to cast ballots that preserve democratic norms. Others say Democrats were always going to lose in the midterms because that is usually what happens and people will make the outcome fit their narratives. Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+.

The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is nearly double the historic average of 52,000 cases. What can you do this flu season? Talk to your pharmacist or doctor about getting a flu shot. Consider FluCellVax Quad and help protect yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages six months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic

reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at flucellvax.ca. The Washington Post editorial board said voters should keep it in mind that this is not a normal election. In deciding whether and how to vote, Americans should keep the fundamentals in mind, supporting candidates committed to the democratic system and the peaceful transfer of power, and opposing those who have tried to profit from toxic lies about election integrity, the board said. Otherwise, those who stoke unfounded suspicions and widened divisions may prevail. This would encourage others to mimic them. It would also hand over critical elements of the machinery of democracy to election deniers in advance of the 2024 presidential race. Such candidates have appeared all over the map. A post count found that in 10 states,

election deniers are running to become their state's chief election officials, such as Arizona's Mark Fincham, Michigan's Christina Caromo, and Nevada's Jim Marchant. In office, deniers could make voting more difficult, encourage doubts about the integrity of the election count, run conspiracy theory-inspired vote audits as the Arizona Senate did following the 2020 election, or even refuse to certify election results, they said. Meanwhile, if Republican Doug Mastriano were to win Pennsylvania's governorship, he would have substantial control over voting in a key swing state. Then there are other Republican Senate candidates such as New Hampshire's Don Bulldog and Arizona's Blake Masters. Members of the House and Senate will have to count presidential electoral votes

in 2024. The more election deniers elected, the more likely a partisan congressional majority might overturn a legitimate presidential vote. In the Washington Post, Catherine Rample said Democrats are drowning in denial. Inflation offers one illustrative example, she said. First, they declared the problem was exaggerated, if not wholly invented, by the media, both mainstream and especially right-wing, despite some internal Democratic polling suggesting inflation was a growing worry among voters. Democrats also told themselves that lower-income households were benefiting from progressive decisions to keep stimulating an already hot economy and were therefore insulated from inflation. Meanwhile, any non-right-wing experts who warned early on that inflation could become

a serious problem were accused of being cranks, attention-seeking contrarians, or sometimes even traitors if they happen to be former Democratic administration officials anyway. Tough love was perceived as disloyalty. It's not just inflation. Democrats have plugged their ears to bad news on other issues too. They've downplayed voters' concerns on crime, violent protests, school closures, and rising recession risk. These are vulnerabilities that Republicans have exploited during the campaign while offering no solutions of their own, of course. Democrats have also convinced themselves that pet policies beloved by left-wing Twitter activists will be broadly popular even when

polls suggested public opinion is mixed at best, she wrote. Such is the case with President Biden's massive student debt forgiveness plan. The issue has been featured more often in Republican campaign ads this cycle than Democratic ones, according to Ad Impact. Maybe voters will ignore these missteps and be persuaded by Democrats' dire warnings about the risks of reproductive rights and democracy if Republicans retake Congress. But if there is cause for Democrats to conduct a political autopsy, the bottomless well of denial each deserve their own chapters. In the New Republic, Matt Ford said the results of the midterms will just confirm everyone's prior narratives. The truth is that midterms are nearly as predictable as death and taxes. The party that controls the White House always

loses, and often badly at that, Ford wrote. Following the predictable results will be the predictable protracted fallout, in which various interest groups and ideological factions will demand that the party could have escaped their fate if it had only adopted their own set of policy preferences and messaging quirks. On Monday, the centrist Third Way got a jumpstart, releasing a memo warning that the Democratic Party's brand is toxic. If Democrats manage to hold on to the House and Senate, it will be in spite of the party brand, not because of it, the memo reads. Sure, why not? But what to do?

Why adopt the Milkatos' pro-corporate messaging push by Third Way, of course. This is something you will undoubtedly hear a lot as Democrats lick their wounds following the midterms. The party is simply too woke, too progressive. It's lost touch with white working class voters. It is in the thrall of the activist wing, he said. It cares too much about policing speech and not enough about pocketbook issues. This is more or less what the party's centrist wing has been saying for as long as anyone can remember, and somehow it's not enough that the party's standard bearer is a nigh-upon octogenarian centrist who remembers the era of working hand-in-hand with segregationist

conservatives with fondness. Naturally, once you start scratching the surface, it becomes hard to discern what, if anything, from the perspective of Third Way, went wrong with the way that Biden and Democrats have actually governed. All right, that is it for the left and the right are saying, which brings us to my take. So I've said it a lot before and I will say it again now. I do not love making predictions and I don't put myself in the business of making them, with the exception of the one time I published those 19 predictions about the future, which was a fun subscribers-only post. I think the prediction economy among columnists and reporters

often produces absurd and ridiculous notions about what might happen with everyone trying to win attention from readers and viewers with hotter takes and snap-your snap your owns on the other side. I do appreciate the many places like Real Clear Politics, 538, Cook Political Report, among others, who try to make data-driven, scientific guesses about how an election may play out. This election does not seem particularly complicated to me. It's a midterm election, inflation is high, Biden's approval ratings are low, and Democrats are likely to lose a lot of House seats and probably the Senate too. Historically, the party in the White House loses 28 House seats and 4 Senate seats on average. Democrats' saving grace is that in several of the most important Senate races,

there are Republican candidates that appeal strongly to base voters on the right, but have very high disapproval ratings among moderates and independents. It's possible that saves them a Senate majority, but I think it is unlikely. One of the few voices I've seen bucking the trend of a big night for Republicans is Simon Rosenberg, who I think at least deserves a shout out here for the sake of diversity of opinion. He is an unabashed progressive working for a progressive organization, but his final midterm update, I'd Rather Be Us Than Them, is uniquely bullish on Democrats. His theory rests mostly on the data we have. Democrats are outpacing early vote numbers from 2020, many late polls look good for them, and Hispanic and youth polling are all trending nicely for Democrats. If they manage to hold the Senate or mitigate

losses in the House, his analysis will prove prescient and unique. The most interesting thing about this election is just how much the two sides are talking past each other. I wrote a few weeks ago that there are essentially two concurrent elections happening, one from Republicans focused on crime, inflation, and immigration, the other from Democrats focused on abortion, democracy, and Ukraine. There are exceptions. Some candidates have made trans issues or election security or potential social security cuts key to their campaigns. But, broadly speaking, this is what each side is focusing on. There are always divisions in what each side focuses on, but this year seems unique in how little the major political parties are grappling with the same issues at the same

time. As we head into election day, we should be patient for results and cognizant of certain dynamics about how these results play out. In Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, you can expect Republicans to have an early lead that narrows as more mail-in votes are counted. In Georgia, we may not have a senator until a December runoff. In New York, House races could take days to resolve. It's not ideal, but it's the system we're stuck with for now. I also caution you all to be wary of predictable claims of fraud or nefarious activity. I've written extensively and repeatedly about allegations of election fraud and how we know the vast majority of them are nonsense. Please do your best not to get caught up in rumors and innuendo and don't amplify unsubstantiated claims. I'm sure

by this time tomorrow there will be a lot more to say about all these races, but for now, my final and most important message is please go vote. All right, that is it for my take, which brings us to your questions answered. This one's from Jeff in Conshock in Pennsylvania. Jeff said, what do you think would be the perfect voting system? Some thoughts. Several days and several methods to vote. Eliminate gerrymandering. Every legal voter is required to cast a ballot. Rank choice voting.

No more attacking political ads and can only promote yourself in ads will be fact-checked for misinformation or misleading information, etc. Okay, Jeff, so this is a great question. I have some ideas that are a little half-baked, but roughly speaking, I'd want something like this. question. I have some ideas that are a little half-baked, but roughly speaking, I'd want something like this. Three days of voting. Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday, with Tuesday being a national holiday for election day. I just think there should be more than one day of voting, and I think having a day of that voting on the weekend would be really beneficial for a lot of people. Voter ID laws pass concurrently with a bill that provides government-issue IDs to any citizen who doesn't have them free of cost. Mail-in voting is allowed for two weeks before an election,

and those votes are processed before election day so results can be determined quickly on election night. No compulsory voting. I would not support that. It is okay to sit out even though I disagree with you. I don't like the idea of people being fined or criminalized for not voting. I love rank-cho choice voting, and I would vote to support it if I could, but I think voters should decide whether they want it or not via ballot initiative. I don't think that should just be implemented. Eliminating gerrymandering would be great. Figuring out the right way to redistrict fairly is very difficult. I answered that in a previous reader question, but yeah, I mean, gerrymandering is a crisis, and I definitely

would love to see it go. I do not think there should be limits on attack ads or fact-checking of political ads, which would be an infringement on free speech and also requires unbiased fact-checking authorities that will never be truly unbiased. So that's sort of a rough outline of what I would do if I could just recreate our elections, but you know, it's not a simple conversation. All right, that is it for our reader question, which brings us to our under the radar section. The Justice Department announced that it will be dispatching workers to 64 jurisdictions in 24 states on Election Day to help ensure they are in compliance with federal law. That is nearly 50% more than the 44 jurisdictions that had workers present in 2020. The DOJ is sending employees from its civil rights division and other units to areas

where they anticipate there will be disputes and tension around the voting process, including Clark County, Nevada, Pinole County, Arizona, Berks County, Pennsylvania, and Milwaukee County, Wisconsin, all areas where there were disputes in 2020 or new laws passed to monitor voters in 2022. The Washington Post has the story and there's a link to it in today's episode description. And next up is our numbers section. Republican Mehmet Oz's advantage over Democrat John Fetterman in an average of polls on the Pennsylvania Senate race is now 0.4% according to RealClearPolitics. Republican Herschel Walker has a 1.4% lead over Democrat Raphael Warnock according to an average from RealClearPolitics. And Republican Adam Laxalt's advantage over Democrat Cortez Mast, though, is 3.4% in an average of the Arizona Senate race polls

according to Real Clear Politics. The total number of registered Democrats who have voted early is now 9.9 million, according to data from states that track registration of early votes, and the total number of registered Republicans who have already voted is 7.8 million, according to that same data. All right, last but not least, our have a nice day section. You'll have a hard time finding someone more generous than Lynn Thomas. Every time the Birmingham, Alabama resident gets a paycheck, she puts aside a little money for random acts of kindness,

a project she calls sewing on purpose. Thomas works as an assistant manager at a convenience store and said she believes in unconditional love and kindness. So she uses the money to run games and help spread that love. For instance, she'll ask people on Facebook to guess a color or number, and whoever guesses correctly gets a free meal or a tank of gas. There's just so much going on, and this is just showing love and blessing somebody just because, Thomas said. USA Today has the story. There's a link to it in today's episode description. There's a link to it in today's episode description.

All right, everybody, that is it for the podcast. Like I said, please, you know, I know this is a big day for a lot of you. Keep your sanity out there. We'll be working hard over here. I'll be on Twitter live tweeting about the election at Ike underscore Saul. If you're interested in keeping track of that, I'm going to be, you know, posting updates

and also tracking some election fraud claims I expect are coming down the pike. And we'll be back here same time tomorrow with an update on where things stand. See you then. Have a good one. Peace. and produced by Trevor Eichhorn. Our script is edited by Ari Weitzman, Sean Brady, and Bailey Saul. Shout out to our interns, Audrey Moorhead and Watkins Kelly, and our social media manager, Magdalena Bokova, who designed our logo. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet75.

For more from Tangle, subscribe to our newsletter or check out our website at www.readtangle.com. Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, Thanks for watching. buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is nearly double the historic average of 52,000 cases. What can you do this flu season? Talk to your pharmacist or doctor about getting a flu shot.

Consider FluCellVax Quad and help protect yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages 6 months and older, Thank you.