Tangle - J.D. Vance's win in Ohio

Episode Date: May 9, 2022

Last week, Vance won the Republican primary for the hotly contested Senate seat that opened when Republican Sen. Rob Portman decided to retire. He is now set to face Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH), who won his ...primary easily, in the general election. Plus, a listener question about the economic recovery.You can read today's podcast here.You can subscribe to Tangle by clicking here or drop something in our tip jar by clicking here.Our podcast is written by Isaac Saul and produced by Trevor Eichhorn. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75.Our newsletter is edited by Bailey Saul, Sean Brady, Ari Weitzman, and produced in conjunction with Tangle’s social media manager Magdalena Bokowa, who also created our logo.--- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/tanglenews/message Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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Starting point is 00:00:00 Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight.
Starting point is 00:00:19 Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. From executive producer Isaac Saul, this is Tangle. Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening, and welcome to the Tangle Podcast, the place where you get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking without all that hysterical nonsense you find everywhere else. I'm your host, Isaac Saul, and on today's episode, we're going to be covering something that happened last week.
Starting point is 00:01:06 We didn't get to it, but it's an important story. J.D. Vance's victory in the Ohio Republican Senate race, the primary. Lots to talk about there. A lot of interesting commentary about what it means for Trump and the future of the Republican Party. As always, though, before we get started, we'll kick it off with some quick hits. First up, Senate Democrats are seeking to codify abortion rights into law with a bill being brought to the Senate floor. The effort will fail, but Democrats want to hold the vote anyway. Number two, Rudy Giuliani withdrew from an interview with the January 6th committee after it refused his request to allow him to record the
Starting point is 00:01:51 interview. Number three, leaders of the group of seven nations, that's Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States, pledged to phase out Russian oil imports. Number four, First Lady Jill Biden made a surprise visit to Ukraine. The Biden administration is accelerating plans to reopen the U.S. embassy in Kyiv. Number five, in his forthcoming memoir, former Defense Secretary Mark Esper alleges that former President Trump asked him to launch missiles into Mexico to destroy drug labs and then deny it was the United States. Number six, in Afghanistan, the Taliban published a decree requiring women to cover their faces in public and said a woman's male guardian will be visited and advised if she violates the law.
Starting point is 00:02:53 Now, this weekend, former President Donald Trump is expected to hit the campaign trail in Ohio, where he's endorsing U.S. Senate candidate J.D. Vance in the Republican primary. We have breaking news now in the Ohio Republican Senate primary race. CNN can now project that J.D. Vance will win the GOP nomination. Let's go right to John. Steve, good morning. project that J.D. Vance will win the GOP nomination. Let's go right to John. Steve, good morning. How did J.D. Vance do it? Yeah, I mean, he put together quite a coalition here. And you can see Vance Mandel, the two candidates who went the hardest after getting that Trump endorsement,
Starting point is 00:03:18 geared their rhetoric the hardest towards getting Trump voters. One, two right here. Dolan, the one candidate Trump said he did not want winning this nomination. Close behind Mandel, but finishing in third place here. Last week, Vance won the Republican primary for the Senate seat that opened when Republican Senator Rob Portman decided to retire. This is one of the most hotly contested races of the year. He is now set to face Representative Tim Ryan, the Democrat from Ohio who won his primary easily in the general election. Ryan enters the race as the underdog
Starting point is 00:03:51 in a state that Trump won by 8 points in 2020, and after a primary race where Republican turnout far outnumbered Democrats about 1.1 million to 500,000. Vance, perhaps best known as the author of Hillbilly Elegy, was once a staunch critic of Donald Trump, but in the last few years he has rallied behind the former president. In April, Vance trailed rival Josh Mandel in the polls, but after a late endorsement from Trump, campaign visits from Donald Trump Jr., and some financing from billionaire Peter Thiel, his fortunes turned and he surpassed the competition, eventually winning the primary with 32% of the vote.
Starting point is 00:04:30 Mandel got 24% and state senator Matt Dolan got 23%. Throughout the late stages of the campaign, Vance repeatedly thanked the former president for his endorsement and said he was wrong in his previous criticism of Trump. endorsement and said he was wrong in his previous criticism of Trump. In his victory speech, he pledged to unite Ohio conservatives, saying he'd also appeal to the moderates in the state. This race was one of the most visible Senate primaries of the season and was closely watched as a litmus test of Trump's sway in the GOP and the realignment of the party in the years following Trump's presidency. In a moment, you'll hear some reactions from the right and the left, and then my take. Hey everyone, it's Isaac here. So as I mentioned not long ago, we are trying to start experimenting
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Starting point is 00:05:58 topics. New podcast episodes are released every two weeks, and you can join hosts Richard Davies and Ashley Milne-Tight for Let's Find Common Ground. You can find episodes at commongroundcommittee.org slash podcast or wherever you get your podcasts. That's commongroundcommittee.org slash podcast. All right, first up, we'll start with what the right is saying. The right has mostly celebrated the win and points to the endorsement from Trump as the reason. Some say it is proof the GOP's transformation to Trumpism is nearly complete. Others argue that it's not quite the Trump bump some people are making it out to be. In the Washington Examiner, Tiana Lowe credited Donald Trump Jr. and Vance for the purge of the neocons. The Cook Political Report called Tuesday night's primary for Vance a little more than an hour after the polls closed,
Starting point is 00:06:51 a staggering feat for a race Vance never led in the polls prior to a fortnight ago, Lowe wrote. The former president's endorsement came late enough that it risked missing out on early voters, and 45 seemed personally uninterested enough in the race that he accidentally referred to Vance as J.D. Mandel. But Don Jr., the Trump with the most careful finger to the pulse of the GOP heartland, was paying attention. From February, Vance was willing to take ample public pushback for refusing to peddle the same hysteria about Russia's invasion of Ukraine, never siding with President Vladimir Putin as his critics like to insinuate, but instead redirecting rage to our own border insecurity. The real point
Starting point is 00:07:31 of inflection came in March when Mandel, letting the magamass slide for a second, endorsed a European-led no-fly zone over Ukraine and Vance held firm. So what if Vance has said mean things about the elder Trump, Lowe asked? Trump has said mean things about everyone, and it's never stopped him from forging an alliance of convenience with them later on. As emissaries of the so-called new right, Don Jr. and Tucker Carlson know Vance understands what time it is in the conservative movement. The social issues of the day include championing taxpayers and parents to reclaim schools from intersectional terrorists and teachers unions, not a gay marriage debate from the last century. And if the number
Starting point is 00:08:10 one national issue for Republicans is fixing the Brandon economy, the number one intraparty issue is purging what remains of the neocons. Matt Schlapp said Vance's victory proves the old GOP has been transformed. This could be the most exciting aspect of this year's big red wave, victorious candidates who are healthy from giving up the junk food of corporate-packed checks, and the largesse of most of the big-money players who usually finance establishment Republican victories, and the resulting carefully constructed caution that always follows, Schlapp said. Many of these companies broke with Republican politicians over GOP insistence on voter ID. These companies have accepted the left-wing orthodoxy that photo IDs are racist,
Starting point is 00:08:51 and so they also lavish financial support to BLM umbrella groups that foment racial discord. But the all-too-obvious story here is the impact of Trump on primaries and the eventual success of his strategy in the midterms. However, what is less understood or discussed is how quickly the GOP, which never changes, has. This could be the most enduring legacy of the Trump years. It is not so much that he drained the swamp, he just exposed it. It could also be argued that Trump finished the job of breaking down Washington that Reagan started 50 years ago. For the political class
Starting point is 00:09:25 of Washington, the Trump era was a bad dream that they strongly believe is forever in the rearview mirror. Wiser eyes can see that the GOP has been transformed. Across the country, Trump and his allies are the standard, and even those who are independent of America First understand that America is in a dire situation that is not of Trump's making, but due to the radical lurch to the left by the Democrats, educational institutions, culture creators, and corporate elitists being poorly advised by the Zuckerbuck's bundlers at the Chamber of Commerce and the Business Roundtable. In the Wall Street Journal, Karl Rove took a different angle, saying it isn't a big win for Trump. Vance's victory showed the strength of Mr. Trump's support among Republicans
Starting point is 00:10:06 as well as its limitations, Rove wrote. The last poll before Mr. Trump endorsed on April 15th, taken by the Traffical Group, showed Mr. Vance at about 23%, trailing former Treasurer Josh Mandel, who held 28%. Both candidates were ahead of businessman Mike Gibbons at 14%, state senator Matt Dolan at a little under 12%, former state GOP chairwoman Jane Timken at just below 8%, and two others who together held roughly 3%. About 13% of votes were undecided.
Starting point is 00:10:39 Tuesday, Mr. Vance won with 32%, followed by Mr. Mandel at 24%, Mr. Dolan at 23%, Mr. Gibbons at 12%, and Ms. Timken at 6%, with about 3% going to the remaining two candidates. The former president's support led tech entrepreneur Peter Thiel to give Mr. Vance's super PAC $3.5 million for ads during the primary's final two weeks. Together, Trump and Thiel drew most late deciders into the Vance column. Without that one-two-punch endorsement and the last-minute ad blitz, it's likely someone else would be the GOP's general election standard bearer, Rove wrote. Still, while Mr. Trump's endorsement made the critical difference, only one of 11 Ohio Republicans followed Mr. Trump's call to fall in line as Mr. Vance's share grew from 23% in the last pre-endorsement poll to 32% on Election Day. His 9% bump was overshadowed by
Starting point is 00:11:33 the rise of Mr. Dolan, who nearly doubled his share of the vote after Mr. Trump announced his late-in-the-race endorsement. Almost 68% of Ohio Republicans ignored or rejected the former president's call to join in his complete and total endorsement of Mr. Vance. Alright, that is it for what the right is saying, which brings us to the left's take. The left concedes it is a win for Trump, but criticized Vance for what he is running on. Many call out the brand of populism Vance is trying to sell as disingenuous. Others say it is too early to say how powerful Trump's endorsement really is.
Starting point is 00:12:18 In the Daily Beast, Ben Burgess criticized Vance's unbelievable phony populism. criticize Vance's unbelievable phony populism. criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. Vance is against Medicare for All. He's against universal child care. He doesn't even want to raise the minimum wage, Burgess wrote. These are pretty much the views you'd expect from a Yale-educated venture capitalist whose campaign is primarily financed by a libertarian Silicon Valley billionaire, but they're an odd fit with his current image. Vance initially rose to fame in 2016 as the author of a best-selling book, Hillbilly Elegy, that, as current affairs editor Nathan J. Robinson put it, might as well have been called how I made it to Yale even though
Starting point is 00:13:21 my family are drug-addicted violent wastrels who should pull themselves up by their bootstraps. Back then, he was a Romney-ish never-Trumper who wrote in USA Today that Trump's actual policy proposals, such as they are, range from immoral to absurd. He's since apologized and abased himself to the former president and was rewarded with Trump's endorsement in the Ohio Senate race, Burgett wrote. A glance through Vance's campaign website shows that he's trying very hard to project at least a general impression of populism. The site's front page vaguely assails economic and government leaders who do things that make life harder for ordinary Americans. The phrase poverty rate shows up in the second sentence of the issues page.
Starting point is 00:14:02 There are whole sections devoted to the opioid crisis and the loss of industrial jobs. The phrase working class even makes a few appearances. What's missing is anything that even looks like a solution to these problems. The Washington Post editorial board said the win is an ominous sign. Trump skeptic turned sycophant J.D. Vance won the Ohio GOP Senate primary on Tuesday in what many deem confirmation that the former President Donald Trump holds an iron grip on the Republican Party. Mr. Vance's rise is indeed an ominous sign for the GOP and the nation, the board wrote. But it is too early to tell whether his brand of apocalyptic nationalism is truly ascendant. The irony of a Yale Law School graduate, New York Times best-selling author,
Starting point is 00:14:46 Netflix producer, and wealthy venture capitalist running a campaign against elites was apparently lost on Mr. Trump, who endorsed Mr. Vance and large numbers of Ohio Republican primary voters. It is hard to decide whether it would be worse if Mr. Vance's ideological turn was cynical or sincere. Either way, the radical philosophy he now espouses amounts to an outburst against reality and reason that, if acted upon, would have dire consequences for the country. In a chilling investigation of the new right ecosystem in which Mr. Vance circulates, James Pogue noted in Vanity Fair that Mr. Vance wants Mr. Trump to retake the White House in 2024, fire the entire Federal
Starting point is 00:15:26 Civil Service, and ignore courts when they deem those moves illegal, essentially to execute a coup. He calls universities the enemy and favors confiscating their endowments. In his recent campaigning, Mr. Vance is railed against aiding Ukraine in its struggle against a Russian invasion which would commit the United States to the same sort of blinkered isolationism that proved calamitous in the run-up to World War II. In Vox, Lee Zhu, Nicole Nerea, and Christian Paz called Donald Trump a winner of the Ohio primary. Trump reportedly called himself a gambler in his approach to endorsing primary candidates, many of whom weren't necessarily favored when they got his endorsement. On Tuesday, the first of his big gambles paid off when Trump-backed candidate and Hillbilly
Starting point is 00:16:09 Elegy author J.D. Vance won the GOP nomination to replace retiring Senator Rob Portman of Ohio. Polls prior to Trump's endorsement had showed Vance middling in the seven-way race, but that late nod, plus an injection of cash from Vance backers, pushed Vance ahead, they wrote. There was plenty for Trump to like along the way to this win. He blessed Vance just over two weeks ago, and prior to that, most of the field made private entreaties to Trump and publicly competed for who could align themselves most closely with the former president. Vance, previously a severe critic of Trump, spent months openly stating that he had been wrong about Trump. While Vance, previously a severe critic of Trump, spent months openly stating that he had been wrong about Trump. While Vance's victory will help bolster Trump's claim to be a kingmaker in the party,
Starting point is 00:16:50 it's not clear it will be predictive of other GOP primaries. Though Vance almost certainly would have won without Trump, he didn't win by a huge enough margin to draw any decisive conclusions. conclusions. That is it for the left and the right's take, which brings us to my take. The only clear thing about this election for me is that it's a bad sign for Democrats. There was low turnout, a Trump-endorsed candidate won, and in a state that has become a battleground for competing populist views, it looks like all the momentum is on the right. I've said many times in this newsletter that I don't think changing your mind or flip-flopping should necessarily be a bad thing. On the contrary, people who never change their mind concern me. New experiences, new input, and new information should produce different conclusions, and if you never change your mind, it's probably a you problem.
Starting point is 00:17:48 The tough thing about J.D. Vance is that so much of his mind-changing seems to be cynical. He went from calling Trump America's Hitler and a moral disaster to kissing his feet for an endorsement. It looks like political expediency, not genuine growth, so I struggle to get on board. I've watched his rise closely and how his persona has shifted with the political winds. In the most basic terms, I don't have any clue what he really stands for or what his values really are other than a commitment to wading into every culture war and trying to make it worse. That being said, it's
Starting point is 00:18:21 not like his opponents, like Josh Mandel who was a tour de force of indecency, were much preferable in this race. What is most interesting about these results, though, is how easily they can be framed to fit your preferred narrative. On the one hand, Vance went from underdog to comfortable primary winner after Trump's endorsement. He won, and Trump, who isn't exactly known for letting go of grudges, looks politically mature in his decision to rally behind a Trump-esque populace who will be an ally in the Senate. In the most Trump, who isn't exactly known for letting go of grudges, looks politically mature in his decision to rally behind a Trump-esque populace who will be an ally in the Senate. In the most basic terms, Trump endorsed someone trailing in the polls and then they won, so however you view this, you can't see it as anything but a win for the former president. On the other hand, Trump's
Starting point is 00:18:59 endorsement in real terms might have only moved the needle by about 9 percentage points. As Karl Rove pointed out, that means only 1 in 11 Ohio Republicans heeded the president's unambiguous endorsement and moved their vote. A supermajority voted against the president's pick, and Ohio Governor Mike DeWine, a more traditional Republican who withstood relentless Trump attacks, handily won his primary race. It appears the real test of Trump's power is still around the corner, with major competitive primary races in Pennsylvania and Georgia, two states that barely went blue in 2020. I feel less clarity about how those races will go after watching
Starting point is 00:19:35 the results in Ohio, but I do know we'll have a much better understanding of Trump's power once the results are in. results are in. All right, that is it for my take. That brings us to your questions answered. This one is from an anonymous reader in Apple Valley, California. They said, is it true that the United States has had the quickest and most robust economic recovery since the pandemic of any of our peer countries like the G7? And if so, why does it seem like our government isn't getting more credit for that recovery? So yes, this was mostly true. A year ago, the US was being credited for driving not just the economic recovery here, but abroad too. After the economy cratered during the shutdowns, it grew by about 5.7% in 2021. That was the
Starting point is 00:20:23 fastest year of growth since 1984, and it was happening at a time when the European recovery was stagnating. That being said, the last five months have been much less encouraging. Around the turn of the new year, the global economic recovery began to slow, in part due to the Omicron variant. Now, inflation continues to accelerate here in the US, and the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates, which could lead to a recession. In the first quarter of 2022, the U.S. economy actually shrank at a 1.4% annual rate. That's the first such decline since the 2020 pandemic began, and it was mostly attributed to a widening trade deficit, imports to the U.S. surged, and exports fell. to a widening trade deficit, imports to the U.S. surged, and exports fell. Businesses also invested less in inventory in Q1, and fading government stimulus almost certainly drove down growth.
Starting point is 00:21:11 It's worth noting, though, that consumer spending actually rose in Q1, which is a pretty good sign. As for why our government isn't getting more credit, I think it's mostly because of the sentiments domestically, which are being driven by inflation. The growth came at a cost that a lot of Americans feel, and day-to-day conditions still don't seem like the pre-pandemic normal for millions of people. Despite so many traditionally great economic indicators like low unemployment and wage growth, when the cost of goods goes up, people notice. Alright, that's it for our read a question today, and next up is our story that matters. President Joe Biden announced a partnership with 20 internet companies to provide discounted service to people with low incomes. The program could make tens of millions of households eligible
Starting point is 00:22:00 for free internet service under an existing federal subsidy. The money comes from the $1 trillion infrastructure package, which approved $14.2 billion for an affordable connectivity program. That program included a $30 a month subsidy, and the Biden administration now has negotiated a plan with internet providers to lower costs to $30 a month for 48 million households, effectively making the connection free for people who signed up under the program. The internet speed will be about 100 megabits per second, which is considered high-speed internet. The Associated Press has the story. There's a link to it in today's newsletter. All right, next up is our numbers section. The number of Ohio Republicans who voted for J.D. Vance in the Senate primary was 340,991. The number of Ohio Republicans who voted for someone
Starting point is 00:22:53 other than Vance was 718,122. The number of Ohio Democrats who voted for Representative Tim Ryan in the Senate primary was 355,764. The number of Ohio Democrats who voted for someone other than Tim Ryan was 154,598. Former President Trump approval rating in Ohio, according to an April poll, was 80%. All right, last but not least, our have a nice day story. For the first time in 130 years, California condors have returned to the Redwood National Park in Northern California. Four condors who were bred in captivity entered the park last week, spreading their wings, which can grow to span nine and a half feet, and taking off in the early morning. wings, which can grow to span nine and a half feet, and taking off in the early morning. I'm just overjoyed on this day, Yurok Wildlife Department Director Tiana Williams-Clawson said on a live stream as the birds took flight. The moment came after a lifetime raised in captivity
Starting point is 00:23:55 where the birds learned to fly in flight pens. Now, biologists are hoping they will once again thrive in the wild of the Redwoods. The Los Angeles Times has the story. There's a link to it in today's newsletter. All right, everybody, that is it for today's podcast. As always, if you want to support our work, please go to readtangle.com slash membership where you can become a paying subscriber to Tangle and keep this whole operation running for a long time.
Starting point is 00:24:26 If not, either way, we'll be right back here tomorrow. Same time. Have a good one. Peace. Our newsletter is written by Isaac Saul, edited by Bailey Saul, Sean Brady, Ari Weitzman, and produced in conjunction with Tangle's social media manager, Magdalena Bokova, who also helped create our logo. The podcast is edited by Trevor Eichhorn and music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75. For more from Tangle, subscribe to our newsletter or check out our content archives at www.readtangle.com. So based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web,
Starting point is 00:25:37 his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+.

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