Tangle - Joe Manchin's decision.

Episode Date: July 18, 2022

On Thursday, the West Virginia senator Joe Manchin told Democratic leaders that he was not going to back a new economic package that included spending on climate change and an increase in taxes on corporations and the wealthy. The news came after reports that negotiations had looked promising and was a major blow to party leaders who were hoping to pass a critical element of their agenda before the midterm elections in the fall.You can read today's podcast here.You can subscribe to Tangle by clicking here or drop something in our tip jar by clicking here.Our podcast is written by Isaac Saul and produced by Trevor Eichhorn. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75. Today’s episode was edited by Zosha WarpehaOur newsletter is edited by Bailey Saul, Sean Brady, Ari Weitzman, and produced in conjunction with Tangle’s social media manager Magdalena Bokowa, who also created our logo.--- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/tanglenews/message Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is nearly double the historic average of 52,000 cases. What can you do this flu season? Talk to your pharmacist or doctor about getting a flu shot. Consider FluCellVax Quad and help protect yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages 6 months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at flucellvax.ca. Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police

procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. From executive producer Isaac Saul,

this is Tangle. Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening, and welcome to the Tangle Podcast, the place where you get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking without all that hysterical nonsense you find everywhere else. I'm your host, Isaac Saul, and I hope you had a great weekend. On today's episode, we are going to be talking about Joe Manchin and climate change, some of his recent comments about the slimmed down, build back, better bill, and what it means. As always, though, before we jump in, we'll start off with some quick hits.

First up, former Trump advisor Steve Bannon's trial on contempt of Congress charges begins today. Number two, Mexican Marines say they captured fugitive drug lord Rafael Caro Quintero in western Mexico on Friday, ending a nine-year manhunt. Number three, the number of monkeypox cases in the U.S. has surpassed 1,800, with infections reported in 43 states and Washington, D.C. investigating the Uvalde shooting, released a damning report indicating nearly 400 officers were on hand, but egregiously poor communication and decision-making delayed confronting the shooter. Number five, Ivana Trump, the first wife of former President Donald Trump and mother to Ivanka Donald Trump Jr. and Eric, died at the age of 73 after a fall in her home. Number six, President Biden concluded his first Middle East trip after meeting with leaders of nine Arab countries. Biden says he confronted Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman over the killing of reporter Jamal Khashoggi.

As we reported, Democratic Senator Joe Manchin has ruled out backing key funding proposals for his party's action on climate change. As the president deals with the fallout from his controversial visit to Saudi Arabia, he's also facing a major problem here at home. Last night, the Democratic Senator of West Virginia, Joe Manchin, delivered a devastating blow to the president's domestic agenda. The last great hope for actual legislation that would have a real impact on climate change. That plan just got tossed out by the Democratic senator from West Virginia. On Thursday, the West Virginia senator told Democratic leaders he was not going to back a new economic package that included spending on climate change and an increase in taxes on corporations and the wealthy. The news came after reports that negotiations had looked promising and was a major blow to party leaders who were hoping to pass a critical element of their agenda before

the midterm elections in the fall. Previously, Manchin had been at the center of sinking the party's signature $2 trillion Build Back Better Act, which President Biden had endorsed and Manchin had refused to vote for. Democrats had already given up on paid family and medical leave, free pre-kindergarten, and tax benefits to low-income Americans in order to court Manchin on a slimmed-down version of the bill. In recent weeks, party leaders believe they were close on a bill that would raise $1 trillion in tax revenue and spend $500 billion on reducing carbon emissions and other tax incentives. Manchin said he could no longer support the legislation until he sees the latest inflation numbers, which are set to be

released in mid-August. Political headlines are of no value to the millions of Americans struggling to afford groceries and gas as inflation soars to 9.1 percent, Sam Runyon, Manchin's spokesperson said. Senator Manchin believes it's time for leaders to put political agendas aside, reevaluate, and adjust to the economic realities the country faces to avoid taking steps that add fuel to the inflation fire. While Manchin said he wasn't ready to move forward on a smaller buildback better, he did indicate he would support provisions to empower the government to negotiate drug prices on behalf of Medicare recipients and extend tax subsidies to reduce insurance costs for Americans who buy coverage through state and national

exchanges. Democrats involved in the negotiations expressed shock and anger toward Manchin. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer had been negotiating tax credits to spur clean energy and incentives to encourage electric vehicles. I'm not going to sugarcoat my disappointment here, especially since nearly all issues in the climate and energy space had been resolved, Senator Ron Wyden, the Democrat from Oregon, who helped craft parts of the package, told the Washington Post. This is our last chance to prevent the most catastrophic and costly effects of climate change. We can't come back in another decade and forestall hundreds of billions, if not trillions, in economic damage and undo the inevitable human toll. On Friday, Manchin appeared

to temper his comments by emphasizing he was still open to a deal, but wanted to see July's inflation numbers first. In a moment, you're going to hear some arguments from the left is saying. The left is deeply critical of Manchin for sinking Biden's agenda. Some call out his ties to the coal industry and wealthy donors. Others say he cost Democrats their window on climate change. In the Washington Post, Greg Sargent said this will only surprise people who haven't been paying attention. As ludicrous as this turnaround is on its face, there are still more hidden absurdities behind the situation that show what a farce it has truly become, Sargent wrote.

They turn on the specifics of what Manchin appeared to reject and his inflation-related excuse for doing so, which amounted to a display of towering bad faith. The deal would have raised around $1 trillion in revenue from rolling back some of the 2017 GOP tax cuts. Half of that revenue would have gone to deficit reduction, and the other half would have gone mostly to funding the transition to green energy. Regardless, how Manchin reached this point is hard to discern. As the Post reports, he has long supported tax reforms such as those being debated, yet he seemingly backed away from them, including a measure to close a loophole enjoyed by the very wealthy to sustain Medicare. What's more, Manchin is still reportedly telling people he wants to secure a few hundred billion dollars

in deficit reduction. How he would do this without raising high-end taxes is unclear, he wrote. Manchin's turnaround floored those working on that text, given what had been happening only hours earlier, Sargent said. And how much would the package offered to Manchin actually increase inflation? Economist Dean Baker notes that half would go to deficit reduction, which Manchin wants, and the nixing of incentives for electrical vehicles removes another spending piece. What's more, Baker says, spending on ACA subsidies would be offset by less spending on prescription drugs. It's basically impossible to see how that would be inflationary, Baker tells me. In the New York Times, Dr. Leah Stokes said it's now clear that

Mr. Manchin has wasted what little time this Congress had left to make real progress on the climate crisis. By stringing his colleagues along, Mr. Manchin didn't just waste legislators' time. He also delayed crucial regulations that would cut carbon pollution. Wary of upsetting the delicate negotiations, the Biden administration has held back on using the full force of its extensive authority on climate over the past 18 months, likely in hopes of securing legislation first, Stokes wrote. The stakes of delay could not be higher. Last summer, when the climate negotiations dragged on, record-breaking heat waves killed hundreds of Americans. Hurricanes, wildfires, and floods pummeled the country from coast to coast.

Over the last 10 years, the largest climate and floods pummeled the country from coast to coast. Over the last 10 years, the largest climate and weather disasters have cost Americans more than a trillion dollars, far more than the Democrats had hoped to spend to stop the climate crisis. With each year we delay, the climate impacts keep growing. We do not have another month, let alone another year or decade, to wait for Mr. Manchin to negotiate in good faith. Mr. Manchin's refusal to agree to climate investments will hurt the economy he claims to want to protect, she said. The package would have built domestic manufacturing, supporting more than 750,000 climate jobs annually. It would have also fought inflation, helping to make energy bills more

affordable for everyday Americans. This is particularly ironic since Mr. Manchin said inflation was the chief reason he was uncomfortable with supporting tax incentives for clean energy right now. Over the past year, Mr. Manchin has taken more money from the oil and gas industry than any other member of Congress, including every Republican, according to federal filings. A Times investigation found that he also personally profited from Cole, making roughly $5 million between 2010 and 2020, about three times his Senate salary. Cole has made Mr. Manchin a millionaire, even as it has poisoned the air his own constituents in West Virginia breathe. The registered herald of West Virginia editorial board said, we should keep in mind that the senior

U.S. senator from West Virginia is stuffing wads of cash into his own pockets from fossil fuel interests. At this point, it is the only explanation that makes sense of why he can't bring himself to do the right thing for the good of Mother Earth and the global village, the board said. Yes, Manchin is chalking up handsome profits made in an ugly family venture of processing and burning a type of low-grade coal mixed with rock and clay known as gob, garbage of bituminous. That mining companies typically cast aside but can be sold and burned to produce electricity. And that is exactly what the Manchin family business does. Not to put too fine a point on it, but the Manchin family profits from an enterprise that is killing the planet, literally. That President Biden and Majority Leader Chuck Schumer ever thought they could pull Manchin over to the line to vote yes on electric cars, well, God bless them, but they showed an embarrassing degree of willful ignorance of what motivates Joe,

the board added. Of course, he's never, ever going to get on board with climate change policies that would upset too many people from the fossil fuel state of West Virginia, and simultaneously derail his own gravy train, even as the planet turns and burns, inevitably and inexorably now, toward a global warming reckoning that will have devastating consequences for future generations. For now, Manchin has a perfect straw man. Inflation is the root of all evil in the U.S. economy, and we cannot pass any policy that pumps more money into the private sector. All right, that is it for what the left is saying, which brings us to the right's take. The right says Joe Biden does not have the mandate he thinks he does and credits Manchin for stepping back. Some say the economy

is in too perilous a position for another huge piece of legislation. Others argue the climate change bill is as partisan as it could be. In National Review, Kevin Williamson said Joe Manchin didn't kill the Democrats' climate agenda. Chuck Schumer's inability to do his job did that, Williamson wrote. The Democrats' plan is a dead letter because 49 senators support it and 51 senators oppose it. The combination of green moralism with green corporatism, an unlovely and destructive feature of European politics, particularly in Germany, is defective for several reasons. It is fundamentally corrupt, as all similar corporatist enterprises are. It transforms a question of roughly quantifiable trade-offs into an absolute

dis-moral contest in which compromise is difficult or impossible. And, perhaps, this still counts for something, it prevents making any meaningful positive reform to environmental policy. We know what a serious climate change policy would look like. It would account for externalities and minimize market distortions in such a way as to enable the switch to very low emission energy sources, nuclear power, and relatively low emissions energy sources like natural gas in the sector where doing so would be relatively easy, electric utilities, and thus mitigate the pain of the same transition in the less tractable sectors like transportation and agriculture, creating a large economically and politically sustainable improvement in total emissions.

It is really quite something to see Democrats raking Joe Manchin over the coals for his supposed environmental apostasy, while President Joe Biden is on his elbows and knees in Riyadh begging the ghastly and murderous Saudi Crown Prince to ramp up oil drilling in his kingdom, where local environmental standards governing energy production are rather lower than they are in Pennsylvania. Thank you. award-winning book. Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. who may not share progressive views on climate change, but who might like to see gas-producing U.S. states increase their export markets and might also like to see their constituents' energy

prices and energy grid reliability brought to a more desirable condition by clean, reliable, safe, modern nuclear energy, which is, if we are being honest about it, the only practical and sufficient source of electricity that is in fact operationally zero emissions. In the Washington Examiner, David Ferdoso said not to blame Manchin for Joe Biden's lack of a mandate. It would be an act of cruelty to Biden to enact his agenda at this point, Ferdoso wrote. The last thing the economy needs at a time of 9% inflation is another multi-trillion dollar spending package financed by borrowing. The last thing it needs is even higher energy prices thanks to fantasy land energy policies of the environmental left. Either of these supposed accomplishments

would surely cost Biden his majorities in both houses of Congress to say nothing of his party's fortunes down ballot. But beyond that, it's also wrongheaded to focus on Manchin as the culprit for Biden's failures. First of all, depending on which agenda item we're discussing, there are 51 or 52 senators who oppose Biden's agenda, not just one. That is not Manchin's fault. It is the fault of President Biden's narrow, no-coattails victory in November of 2020. That same day, Democrats actually lost ground in state-level elections, dropping two state legislative chambers and one governorship. Democrats in the U.S. House saw their comfortable 36-seat majority shrink down to an uncomfortable nine-seat edge. As for the Senate, only Georgia's

peculiar general election runoff ruled save Biden by allowing John Ossoff to win a seat in January instead of losing it in November. This is how Biden, by the skin of his fingernails, obtained the current 50-50 Senate tie, which Biden's vice president can break in party line votes, he wrote. Biden is now the most unpopular president in history precisely because he ignored this. He arrogantly behaves now as if he won a clear mandate in 2020 to make enormous changes. He jumped to impose environmentalist restrictions on fossil fuels. He assigned massive spending increases causing devastating inflation. He has proposed further spending increases and he has signed massive spending increases causing devastating inflation, he has proposed further spending increases, and he has proposed massive tax increases. The Wall Street Journal editorial board said Manchin was right to turn down what would have been a tax increase for Americans. Our guess is that more than a few Democrats are secretly

pleased as they near a fateful date with the voters in November. They simply won't say it out loud the way Mr. Manchin does. Republicans asked the Joint Committee on Taxation to estimate the federal tax impact of the House's Build Back Better bill revenue provisions, sand social spending, e.g. Affordable Care Act premium and child tax credits. The bill also raises the state and local tax deduction limit to $80,000 from $10,000 today. That is more or less the tax deal Mr. Schumer is trying to sell as part of the Build Back Lighter. The JCT analysis includes sundry green energy tax credits along with the tax increases such as a 15% minimum tax on corporate book income over $1 billion, a 5% surtax on income over $10 million and 8% over $25 million, 1% surtax on corporate stock buybacks,

3.8% net investment income tax on pass-through income over $400,000, and a limit on the losses that small businesses can deduct from taxes. According to JCT's first report, taxpayers would pay $31 billion more next year in federal tax and $150 billion more in 2031 as the tax increases are phased in and some green energy tax credits are phased out. Taxpayers across the income spectrum would be hit. In 2023, those earning between $50,000 and $100,000 would pay $5.2 billion more. Over the 10-year budget window, about 30% of the revenue raised would come from Americans earning less than $400,000 per year, it added. JCT's second analysis shows that more than a quarter of Americans earning between $75,000 and $100,000 would pay more in tax next year,

as would more than half of Americans earning between $100,000 and $200,000. The tax increases would be a few hundred dollars for many, but some could pay thousands of dollars more. Didn't President Biden promise not to raise taxes on Americans earning less than $400,000? Read between his lips. All right, that is it for the left and the right's take, which brings us to my take. So there are two ways to tell this story. The first is that progressives got screwed, and they knew they were going to get screwed, and future generations may suffer a great deal because of it. Remember, this entire summer squeeze originated when party leadership decided

to unlink Biden's infrastructure deal from the Build Back Better program, which progressives said would lead to this moment and which Democratic leadership assured them was an overblown fear. Here is what I wrote in November when Biden passed the infrastructure bill. The larger Build Back Better plan is now in a vacuum and progressives won't be able to threaten sinking the must-have infrastructure bill when they don't get everything they want. It's already been cut in half and we'll see what else gets whittled down or out in the coming weeks. Progressives said they wouldn't vote on this infrastructure bill without a vote on BBB. Then 90% of them did. As Matt Lewis wrote, it's hard to see that as anything but a cave. That cave, though, came with lots of hand-wringing and warnings that this moment would come too. That mansion, his pockets lined by big oil and

rich Republican donors, would never move on significant action to combat climate change warnings that this moment would come too. That Manchin, his pockets lined by big oil and rich Republican donors, would never move on significant action to combat climate change or increase taxes on the wealthy and corporations. Given that this all started with Democratic hopes of creating a permanent child tax credit, passing free pre-kindergarten, free community college for two years, 12 weeks of guaranteed paid leave, fees for polluters, Medicare expansion, and the lowering of prescription drugs, it's easy to frame this as an incredible Manchin-induced failure of Biden's agenda. The second way to tell the story is that Democrats never really had the votes and never really tried to court the ones they needed. After barely winning control of the Senate, Biden

promised to fundamentally reshape American life in a way that has always been unlikely given his lack of tangible political power. Far from being Manchin's fault, Democrats failed to pass a version of Build Back Better because they failed to create legislation that could garner even a single Republican senator's vote. Worse yet, they are trying to pass a $1 trillion bill that might effectively raise taxes on millions of Americans at a time when inflation is soaring, real wages are falling, and Americans are pessimistic about the economy. Manchin is right to press pause on the idea not just because he represents a state with heavy coal interests, but because Democrats should

wait for some encouraging signs on the economy before they pass another major piece of legislation. Manchin spent weeks operating in good faith on negotiations and rightly pulled the reins after this month's alarming inflation numbers. On top of all that, Manchin is still open to legislation that would allow the government to negotiate down drug prices and then to extend Affordable Care Act subsidies, which would expire next month. He may even come back to the table on climate change regulations if Democrats get some good signals this month. Those are the two tails, and I actually don't see why they can't coexist. Progressives did get screwed, and Manchin is in the pocket of big oil. The lack of serious climate

action is a frightening prospect, but Democrats never had the mandate for Build Back Better and misstepped by focusing so much on winning over one senator who was never going to come to their side anyway. And yes, it is a very perilous time to be passing a $1 trillion piece of legislation given the current state of the economy. Everybody's right about something. To me, the biggest disappointment in this whole charade are the loss of both any sweeping legislation to address the very real threat of climate change and the child tax credit. But I can see that the latter would be irresponsible to pass right now. We can't simply inject more government money into people's pockets in this economic moment, even if I hope Democrats return to it once inflation recedes. On climate change, I think Kevin Williamson is on to something about

Democrats' inability to produce a piece of legislation that could have won over one or two Republicans. Perhaps it was always foolish to focus on winning over Manchin, but I also think it's a bit absurd to blame Democrats for a lack of climate action when they have made it a critical part of their platform for over a decade, while only a few congressional Republicans have begun to concede it is an issue that needs addressing. There are a number of popular climate provisions Americans want and Congress should go after. Massive tree planting programs, tax credits for carbon capture or storage, transitioning power companies to more renewable energy sources, and taxing corporations based on carbon emissions. And as awful as inflation has been, and as bad as Biden's poll numbers are,

if he can actually get Manchin on board with legislation to lower prescription drug prices and extend ACA subsidies, he'll have a few big wins to boast about that Democrats should be happy on heading into the midterms. An infrastructure bill, a gun control bill, a COVID-19 relief bill, a liberal Supreme Court justice, billions of dollars in student debt relief, the rallying of global allies to defend Ukraine, and, however chaotic, a widely supported withdrawal from Afghanistan. That may not be what progressives dreamt about two years ago, but there's also a framing where it's not so bad given how little room for error, as evidenced by Manchin's unreliability, Biden actually had. Whether they can sell that story to the Democratic base is another thing.

All right, that is it for my take, which brings us to your questions answered, which is the section we are skipping today. If you want to submit a reader question, you can always ask one by writing in to Isaac, I-S-A-A-C at readtangle.com. The podcast got a little bit long, so we're going to save our reader question for tomorrow. Next up is our story that matters. Last week, President Biden secured a promise from Mexico's President Andres Manuel Obrador to fund $1.5 billion of infrastructure at the border to improve processing and security. The money will go toward a host of new construction projects, none of them walls, to improve screening at a time when a record number of migrants are crossing

the border each month. Officials say the exact details of the project are still being worked out, but there will not be any new wall or barrier. Instead, they hope to modernize ports of entry and enhance the screening process. Fox News has the story of how Biden is hoping to work with Lopez Obrador on border crossings, drug smuggling, and more. All right, that is it for our story that matters, which brings us to our numbers section. All right, that is it for our story that matters, which brings us to our numbers section. The percentage of Americans who said the federal government is doing too little to reduce the effects of climate change was 65%, according to a June 2020 survey. The percentage of U.S. adults who favor planting a trillion trees to absorb carbon emissions, according to a July 2022 survey,

is 90%. The percentage who favor providing a tax credit to businesses for developing carbon capture and storage is 79%. The percentage who favor requiring power companies to use energy for more renewable sources is 72%. The percentage who favor taxing corporations based on their carbon emissions is 68%. The percentage of Americans who say Biden's climate agenda is heading in the right or wrong direction is 49 to 47%, according to a July 2022 poll. All right, last but not least, our have a nice day section. A famous YouTuber with 1.8 million followers just pulled off one of the more epic viral good deeds in recent memory. Hope Allen, also known as HopeScope, made a call out on his YouTube page

for followers who had recently lost valuable possessions while traveling. Then, with the help of another YouTuber well known as a treasure hunter, went on a quest to find and claim the people's lost luggage. When that proved harder than they thought, they ended up scouring websites that sell unclaimed baggage

and buying back similar or identical products for the people who follow Ho Ballant. Business Insider has that story, and there's a link to it in today's newsletter. All right, everybody, that is it for today's podcast. As always, if you want to support our work, go to readtangle.com slash membership, and we'll be right back here same time tomorrow. Peace. Our newsletter is written by Isaac Saul, edited by Bailey Saul, Sean Brady, Ari Weitzman, and produced in conjunction with Tangle's social media manager, Magdalena Bokova,

who also helped create our logo. The podcast is edited by Trevor Eichhorn and music for the podcast was produced by Diet75. For more from Tangle, subscribe to our newsletter or check out our content archives at www.readtangle.com. The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is nearly double the historic average of 52,000 cases. What can you do this flu season? Talk to your pharmacist or doctor about getting a flu shot. Consider FluCellVax Quad and help protect yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages 6 months and older,

and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at flucellvax.ca. Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+.