Tangle - Manchin says 'no' to Biden

Episode Date: December 20, 2021

Yesterday, the West Virginia Democrat went on Fox News Sunday and all but ended the negotiations over President Biden's $1.7 trillion social spending and climate change bill plan, dubbed Build Back Better (BBB).Speaking with Bret Baier, Manchin cited rising inflation, the national debt, and the latest Covid-19 variant, and said "I can't go home and explain it to the people of West Virginia, I can't vote for it. And I cannot vote to continue with this piece of legislation. I just can't. I've tried everything humanly possible. I can't get there."You can subscribe to Tangle by clicking here or drop something in our tip jar by clicking here.Our newsletter is written by Isaac Saul, edited by Bailey Saul, Sean Brady, Ari Weitzman, and produced in conjunction with Tangle’s social media manager Magdalena Bokowa, who also created our logo.The podcast is edited by Trevor Eichhorn, and music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75.--- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/tanglenews/message Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight.

Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. From executive producer Isaac Saul, this is Tangle. Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening, and welcome to the Tangle Podcast, a place where you get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking without all that hysterical nonsense you find everywhere else. I am your host, Isaac Saul, and on today's episode, we are going to be talking about Senator Joe Manchin and what he did this weekend that has basically thrown President Biden's agenda up into the air,

as well as answer a question about Reality Winner and a little preview of a forthcoming interview. Before we jump in, though, I just want to say thank you to everybody for their outpouring of support and sympathies about the COVID-19 diagnosis last week. I'm doing okay. I am sort of on the mend now, feeling like just the lingering effects of a cough and some congestion. Unfortunately, my wife has gone down and she's getting hammered with fever, chills, body aches, all that good stuff, the whole nine yards. So please send her your good vibes and prayers and energy. I'm actually thinking about maybe doing a newsletter about how this all went down and some of what I've learned in the last few days about where we are in fighting and handling this

virus. So I'll spare you the details for now. I also wanted to let you know that I had a great conversation on Friday with a man many of you have asked me to interview, Mr. Andrew Yang. We have a little bit of a preview of that interview in today's newsletter, just a little Skype photo. But Andrew was super nice, gave us a lot of his time, super supportive about what we're doing at Tangle. So I would just suggest keeping an eye out for that interview. Probably a transcript of it going to be released first for subscribers this week, and then maybe a podcast coming out of the conversation a few days after that. So stay tuned. All right, before we jump into our main issue today,

we will do some quick hits. First up, COVID-19 cases, like mine I guess, are surging in states like New York, which has set several pandemic records for daily new cases. 80% of ICU beds in the U.S. are now occupied, with cases up 10% over last week. Officials are still hopeful that the Omicron variant is less severe than previous variants, but we are collecting data now. Number two, the New York Times released an investigative report on hidden Pentagon papers that show the breadth of civilian casualties from drone strikes and long-range bombings in the Middle East. Number three, Senator Johnny Isakson, the Republican from Georgia, passed away at the age of 76 this weekend. Isakson retired from Congress in 2019 after

being diagnosed with Parkinson's in 2013. Number four, the Senate passed a bill banning imports from the Chinese region of Xinjiang where Uyghurs and ethnic minorities are being forced into re-education and labor camps. Number five, U.S. stocks, oil prices, and bond yields opened lower on Monday as investors worry the Omicron variant will disrupt economic growth and add inflationary pressures. west virginia senator joe mansion dealing a devastating blow to his party's nearly two trillion dollar top priority sinking the build back better bill in a sunday interview turn out to that breaking news here in washington Senator Joe Manchin dealing with what could be a fatal blow to President Biden's Build Back Better plan. The West Virginia Democrat announcing on Fox News today that he is a no, the move blindsiding the White House. So what's next for President Biden's domestic agenda? I've always said this, Brett,

if I can't go home and explain it to the people of West Virginia, I can't vote for it. home and explain it to the people of West Virginia. I can't vote for it. And I cannot vote to continue with this piece of legislation. I just can't. I've tried everything humanly possible. I can't get there. You're done. This is a no. This is a no on this legislation. I have tried everything I know to do. Yesterday, the West Virginia Democrat went on Fox News Sunday and all but ended the negotiations over President Biden's $1.7 trillion social spending and climate change bill, dubbed the Build Back Better plan. Speaking with Brett Bayer, Manchin cited rising inflation, the national debt, and the latest COVID-19 variant,

saying, I can't go home and explain it to the people of West Virginia. I can't vote for it, and I cannot vote to continue with this piece of legislation. I just can't. I've tried everything humanly possible. I can't get there. Bayer asked Manchin directly if this is a no vote, and Manchin said this is a no on this legislation. He praised the president for negotiating in good faith and said he has been wonderful to work with, but also said we should be directing all of our attention toward the new COVID-19 variant and inflation. BBB included legislation for free universal pre-K, extending the child tax credit, and expansions of Obamacare and Medicare. It also included about $555 billion of tax incentives for producers and buyers of wind, solar, and nuclear power,

as well as tax credits for electric vehicles, billions of dollars to make buildings more energy efficient, and funding for research and development of carbon capture technology. The White House responded to Manchin by releasing a scathing statement, accusing him of breaking his own word to the president, and claiming Manchin proposed a Build Back Better framework as recently as Tuesday that was nearly the same size as the bill President Biden and other Democrats want. If his comments on Fox and written statements indicate an end to that effort, they represent a sudden and inexplicable reversal in his position and a breach of his commitments to the president and the senator's colleagues in

the House and Senate, the statement said. While this might not be the final nail in the coffin for BBB, it certainly seems close. We've covered this bill a lot. You can go back and see our latest coverage in the newsletter if you'd like. Below, we're going to take a look at some commentary from the left and the right, and then my take. All right, first up, we'll start with the leftist saying. The left says that progressives were right not to trust Manchin. They say his reasons for opposing the bill don't add up, and many point out that this could be the last best shot to address climate change. In the Washington Post, James Downey said this is what Democrats get for playing too soft. Let's be clear, Manchin's excuses for opposing this bill, which would expand child care and

Medicare benefits, fight climate change, and provide other support for low-income Americans, are nonsense. If I can't go home and explain it to the people of West Virginia, I can't vote for it, he told Fox News on Sunday. But polls have shown West Virginians on balance support the BBB, and it would likely help West Virginia more than most states. The idea that Manchin, who's won statewide elections six times, can't explain a popular useful bill to his constituents is laughable. The rest of Manchin's rationalizations aren't any better. The inflation that I was concerned about, and it's not transitory, it's real, is harming every West Virginian, he told Fox News' Brett Baier. But numerous economists have

said the BBB won't affect inflation. As White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki noted in an acid statement, the Penn Wharton budget model, which Manchin is fond of citing, issued a report less than 48 hours ago that noted the Build Back Better Act will have virtually no impact on inflation in the short term, and in the long run, the policies it includes will ease inflationary pressures. Notably, Manchin did not cite any expert to rebut that view in either his Fox appearance or the statement announcing his stance. In Vox, Lee Zhu said this was the progressives' biggest fear. For members of the squad, a group of staunch progressives in the House, Senator Joe Manchin's statement opposing the Build Back Better Act didn't come as a surprise. They'd long warned it was just a matter of time before Manchin derailed the bill if a vote

on infrastructure legislation, which he supported, was held first. It turns out they were right. The bills were coupled for weeks but were eventually separated due to pressure from House moderates and an assurance from President Joe Biden that he'd secure a yes vote from Manchin on the Build Back Better Act. It's impossible to say exactly what would have happened had progressives not chosen to put their trust in the president's ability to seal a deal, Zhu wrote. Although Manchin helped negotiate the bipartisan infrastructure framework, it was never clear whether he wanted it to pass so badly that he'd be willing to overlook his concerns about the size of the Build Back Better Act and many of its programs. On the other hand, it did appear that the infrastructure legislation was a proposal Manchin was invested in.

Anna Phillips said Manchin may have just doomed American climate policy. Manchin's comments on Fox News Sunday put at risk $555 billion package of tax credits, grants, and other policies aimed at lowering greenhouse gas emissions that would rank as the largest clean energy investment in U.S. history, Phillips wrote. The legislation's passage would have helped Biden meet his goal of cutting America's greenhouse gas emissions in half compared with the 2005 levels by 2030. Without a reduction of that speed and scale, the United States would fall short of the targets it committed to under the 2015 Paris Agreement, potentially locking in a future of increasingly destructive forest fires, deadly floods, and droughts. Already, record-breaking hurricanes

and fires are testing the federal government's ability to respond to overlapping disasters. The administration has already adopted several policies to limit climate pollutants. This week, it will tighten mileage standards for cars and light trucks, and it has adopted rules that would curb potent greenhouse gases used in refrigeration and air conditioning, Phillips wrote, but several analysis have shown that these executive actions will not make deep enough emissions cuts to meet the president's global climate pledge. All right, that brings us to what the right is saying. So the right has celebrated Manchin sticking to his guns on inflation and debt.

They say it's not quite time to celebrate as a smaller bill may still be in the works, and they criticize Democrats for trying to push through a major bill they don't have a mandate for. The Wall Street Journal editorial board called it a service to the country that is sparing it from huge tax increases and entitlements that would erode the incentive for Americans to work. All of this brought the predictable consternation from progressives with a furious Bernie Sanders denouncing Mr. Manchin and promising retribution in West Virginia. It's a hollow threat. West Virginians oppose the BBB by about three to one in a recent poll, the board wrote. The same media that cheered Mr. Biden's

entitlement ambitions as the second coming of FDR are now blaming Mr. Manchin for hurting his party. But where were they when we warned that Mr. Manchin and Democrats in Congress were offering a radical agenda that far exceeded the mandate of their narrow victories in 2020 and the grasp of a 50-50 Senate. The media's progressive bias again misled Democrats into thinking they would carry the day. We have to admit that Mr. Manchin's defection also vindicates Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's strategy to support an infrastructure bill that showed bipartisan Senate dealmaking is possible, the board added. We don't apologize for opposing that bill on the merits. It contains hundreds of billions of dollars in wasted spending.

Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight.

Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. But Mr. McConnell calculated that sometimes you have to sacrifice a piece to win the chess match, and the GOP leader read the West Virginian will. The silver lining for Democrats is that this gives them a chance to face the political reality before they leap off a cliff. The Democratic left must now confront the limits of their power. The National Review editors said good riddance to build back better. The radical legislation that sought to spend trillions of dollars to transform America at a time of historic

debt was a bad idea that should never have even made it this far, the editors wrote. The West Virginia senator has publicly made his position clear for months, and as we explained last week, the bill in question violated many of the red lines he had drawn. It was more expensive, was not fully paid for, included accounting gimmicks he opposed, allowed for taxpayer funding of abortion, disguised the long-term cost by trillions of dollars by funding many projects for only a few years in hopes they would become permanent, created new programs when the government cannot pay for existing ones, and added to government outlays at a time when inflation is on the rise. In the wake of Manchin's announcement,

progressives held out hope that he was merely drawing a hard line at the bargaining table. After all, he indicated opposition to this piece of legislation and openness to a bill in which Democrats would focus on a narrower set of priorities and fully fund them for a decade. This is certainly a possibility and one that should prevent conservatives from fully celebrating. Philip Klein warned that Manchin could still sign off on $1.75 trillion in spending over something, but that he effectively just ended the dream of transformational liberalism. Even if something re-emerges from the rubble, it is not going to be anything along the lines of transformational type of legislation liberals envisioned earlier this year, Klein wrote.

The idea was to augment the role of government in every aspect of individuals' lives, with subsidized child care, a government takeover of preschool, more financing for college, a more generous Obamacare, and an expanded Medicare, not to mention hundreds of billions of dollars in investments toward the Green New Deal. That magnitude of legislation is no longer in the cards, even if Manchin warms up to passing something. What's more important to realize is that this doesn't merely foreclose the chances of Democrats getting something transformational passed this year, but it likely blocks them from doing so for the rest of the Biden presidency and perhaps the rest of the decade. That is, Republicans are almost certain to retake control of at least the House next year,

given the historical performance of the party in power during midterms and Biden's low approval ratings. All right, so that's it for the left and the right's take, which brings us to my take. So I'll start with admitting that I was wrong about something. I had put myself in the Progressive Caucus's shoes during earlier coverage of this process, and I ultimately said I thought they made the right call by unlinking the infrastructure bill from BBB. I'd put myself in the Progressive Caucus' shoes during earlier coverage of this process, and I ultimately said I thought they made the right call by unlinking the infrastructure bill from BBB. There were two reasons for that. One, I thought it was just good for the country because we needed the infrastructure bill and I wanted it to be passed.

Two, I also said strategically, I thought by passing something, progressives could prove they would work with the middle, get some momentum, and hold up their end of the deal. Eventually, I figured Biden would work over and then win over Manchin. It's on number two that I was wrong. Progressives like members of the squad said Manchin was never going to get on board, even if he got what he wanted, and it seems as if, however you feel about them, they were right to want to keep these bills linked. There are plenty of reasons people oppose Build Back Better, but the ones Manchin cited really don't add up. Manchin had agreed publicly and privately to as much as $1.75 trillion in spending, and the same sources he regularly cites about other issues have said this bill won't cause any long-term inflationary pressure. In fact, they say the opposite. Citing the debt, too,

is a pretty silly take from a guy who has reliably voted for deficit spending over the last couple of years and enthusiastically dumps trillions into the military-industrial complex every chance he gets. Then there's the climate change piece. This one has been tough for climate activists to swallow, and who can blame them? Manchin made $500,000 in the last year alone from investments in a family coal brokerage he founded. He rejected a clean electricity program that would have been the most transformative energy policy in the bill, then objected to a tax credit for purchases of electric vehicles built by a labor union, then objected to limiting future oil and gas drilling in our oceans,

then objected to a fee on methane emissions. He seems to accept the reality of climate change, but rejects nearly every proposal to address it, and his conflicts of interest are as clear as day. As I've said from the start, the policies in this bill I most supported were the child tax credit, which has bipartisan support, a paid parental leave policy, a goal that has bipartisan support with deep divisions on how to get there, and legislation that could help the government negotiate down our absurdly expensive prescription drugs, a goal which has bipartisan support and Trump attempted. I was hoping for something anything to address climate change, which is a generational issue that is rapidly getting worse, no matter how much I'd like to

pretend otherwise. Now, Democrats will be scrambling to extend the child tax credit, which will expire at the end of the year without action. It's unclear how or if they will be able to get this done, but given how hard it would be to restart the program if it lapses, I imagine they'll do everything they can to make it happen. As for Manchin, Democrats are still lucky to have him. He serves in a state where they never have a senator otherwise, and if he retired, his seat would almost certainly go to a Republican far less willing to play ball than he is. Like it or not, his vote represents the reality of West Virginia politics and is something the vast majority of his constituents will probably support. It's not one senator holding up this bill, it's 51, and while many of his reasons don't hold up, Manchin has been crystal clear that from the beginning he wanted to use this bill to do a

few things well and for long periods of time. He said he wouldn't vote for the bill with any budget gimmicks, which it has, and he wanted this legislation to be fully paid for, which it isn't. For whatever reason, very few Democrats or pundits took him at his word, and apparently he meant it. imagine Democrats giving up now, but whatever bill rises out of these ashes won't look much like the $1.7 trillion framework that passed the House, which itself was vastly different from the initial $3.5 trillion proposal or the $6 trillion pipe dream many progressives were pushing for. Both Biden and the Progressive Caucus have now seriously weakened hands, and it could be weeks or months or years before any meaningful talks pick back up. weeks or months or years before any meaningful talks pick back up.

All right, that brings us to our reader question for today. This one comes from an anonymous reader who asked, how do you compare what Julian Assange did to Reality Winner? They seem relatively similar to me, except that perhaps Assange actually put individuals' lives in peril. She spent time in jail. I understand she was not pretending to be a journalist. So the major difference in what they did is that Reality Winner unambiguously committed a crime. She basically made a calculation that breaking the law was worth it and that she believed she was upholding her oath by telling Americans the truth about potential vulnerabilities in our election system. Assange, on the other hand, has maintained that he did not commit a crime, but only procured classified information the same way many

investigative journalists do. One of the critical charges against Assange is that he helped Chelsea Manning hack a government computer rather than just disseminate classified material Manning gave to him. The other difference, obviously, is just the scale of it. Winner gave The Intercept a spicy story about potential Russian hacking of our election systems. Assange has repeatedly helped facilitate some of the biggest stories of our time, and in Manning's case, unveiled war crimes about the U.S. and the depth of the public deception about how our battles in the Middle East were actually going. I think what Assange did had a much bigger impact and made much bigger news than what Winner did. In the end, Winner spent four years in prison, a punishment she seems to have accepted for what she did.

She actually just did a fascinating 60 Minutes interview, which I linked to in today's newsletter. That's worth your time if you're interested more in the story. And a reminder, if you want to ask a question yourself, you can reply to any newsletter that gets sent out and just write in. can reply to any newsletter that gets sent out and just write in. All right, next up is our story that matters. This one is a story that has kind of gotten drowned out by a lot of the other stuff going on, but President Joe Biden has pushed through a record number of federal judges in the first year of his presidency. No president has filled more vacancies in four decades, and Biden is hoping to outpace former President Donald Trump, who cites judicial nominations on federal courts and at the Supreme

Court as one of his crowning achievements in office. Biden has so far nominated over 70 judges and confirmed 40, the most of any president at this point in their time in office since Ronald Reagan. Trump had confirmed fewer than 20 and nominated close to 60 around this time in office. More than 230 judges were seated during the Trump presidency, and Biden is trying to catch him. The Washington Post has a great story about what's coming next. All right, that brings us to our numbers section. 48% is the percentage of West Virginian voters who favor Biden's Build Back Better plan, according to a Blue-Green Alliance survey taken in October. 46% is the percentage of West Virginian voters who oppose Biden's Build Back Better plan,

according to that same survey. 74% is the percentage of West Virginian voters who say Senator Joe Manchin should oppose Build Back Better, according to a new poll in mid-November. 32% is Biden's approval rating in that same poll. 2024 is the next time Senator Manchin is up for re-election in West Virginia. And 61% is the percentage of Americans nationally who support Biden's Build Back Better plan, according to a Monmouth poll released in early December. All right, last but not least, we have our Have a Nice Day story. This one is about an eight-year-old Boston Terrier who's being credited with saving the life of a nine-month-old baby in Connecticut. Jeff and Kelly Dowling say that while their daughter was asleep in her nursery on Tuesday, their dog Henry repeatedly barged into the room to wake the baby and was acting strangely.

After shooing him out of the room several times, the Dowlings finally went in and realized their daughter, who had a cold, had been having trouble breathing and was turning blue in the face. She wasn't clearing her airway, Kelly Dowling said. She started to turn blue and go rigid, and she just really couldn't get any air. She couldn't get any oxygen. They rushed her to the hospital where she had her airways cleared by a doctor and is now doing okay. The Dowlings say they're letting Henry sleep in the bed with them and planning to make a mistake dinner as a thank you. ABC News has the story, and there's a link to it in today's newsletter.

All right, everybody, that is it for today's podcast. Apologies again for my raspy voice and congested nature. I am hopefully coming into the end of this COVID-19 battle. I appreciate everybody checking in. And again, as always, if you want to support this podcast, please go to the description link, click it, pledge your support for a month, maybe a week, maybe a year. You can also rate this podcast anywhere you can rate podcasts. Toss us a five-star rating. It does a lot to help us get out there and spread the word. All right, guys, we will see you tomorrow and hopefully i'll sound a little bit better peace our newsletter is written by isaac saul edited by bailey saul sean brady ari weitzman and produced in conjunction with tangle's social media manager magdalena bakova who also helped create our logo the podcast is edited by trevor eichhorn and music for the podcast was produced by diet 75 for more from Tangle,

subscribe to our newsletter or check out our content archives at www.readtangle.com. Thanks for watching! character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+.