Tangle - Mexico's new president.

Starting point is 00:00:00 The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is nearly double the historic average of 52,000 cases. What can you do this flu season? Talk to your pharmacist or doctor about getting a flu shot. Consider FluCellVax Quad and help protect yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages 6 months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at flucellvax.ca. Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police

Starting point is 00:00:39 procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. From executive producer Isaac Saul,

Starting point is 00:01:03 this is Tangle. Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening, and welcome to the Tangle podcast, a place we get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking, and a little bit of my take. I'm your host, Isaac Saul, and on today's episode, we are going to be talking about Mexico's new president. Before we jump in, though, I want to give you a couple quick important heads up. First of all, we have three, yes, one, two, three internship positions that just opened up for this summer into the fall. These are all paid positions, and we can also offer class credits for interested college students. We've done that in the past. There are three different positions we're looking to fill. One is a writing

Starting point is 00:01:57 and research internship. One is a media outreach kind of public relations internship, and one is a business development internship. All three internships have individual applications. They have been posted on our website in today's newsletter and are linked to in today's episode description. So if you're a college student, a recent college graduate, or you know somebody who is one of those things, please spread the word, check out the internships. We're hoping to fill them up relatively quickly. We have a start date of July 1st. I'm super excited about this, and I would love to bring some folks on into the Tangle team. So that's number one. Number two is that our YouTube channel is just about to crack 10,000 subscribers. This is one of our first big milestones.

Starting point is 00:02:47 John, who is our podcast editor and our YouTube executive producer, is obviously super excited about this milestone. We are literally just 50, 60 people away from it. So if you have not yet done so, you can go find us on YouTube, stop whatever you're doing, take 30 seconds, go to Tangle News on YouTube and just press subscribe to the channel. It would be a huge

Starting point is 00:03:10 help. We want to celebrate that milestone, and we want to hit it, and we know we're really close. So Tangle YouTube channel is like 9,950 or something subscribers. We're very close to that 10,000 mark, and it would be great if you guys could help get us there. All right, with that out of the way, I'm going to pass it off to John for today's main story and quick hits, and I'll be back with my take. Thank you, Isaac, and welcome, everybody. Here are your quick hits for today. First up, Dr. Anthony Fauci testified before Congress yesterday, notably insisting that he has remained open to the possibility COVID-19 started in a lab and defending his agency from accusations it has funded dangerous virus research. Number two, President Biden is expected

Starting point is 00:03:59 to issue a series of executive orders imposing new restrictions on asylum claims at the border today. Number three, Senator Bob Menendez, the Democrat from New Jersey who is currently on trial for bribery charges, is filing for re-election as an independent. Separately, Representative Sheila Jackson, the Democrat from Texas, has announced she has been diagnosed with pancreatic cancer. Number four, the Israeli military says it confirmed the death of four more hostages and believes only about 80 of the roughly 120 hostages in Gaza are still alive. Separately, doubt continues to swirl about a ceasefire deal announced by President Biden.

Starting point is 00:04:35 And number five, the Justice Department charged Epoch Times CFO Bill Gwan for an alleged scheme to launder $67 million in illicit funds to himself. This morning, Mexico electing the first woman president and first Jewish president in its 200-year history. Mexico is a key partner in trying to curb illegal immigration, and today President Biden called to congratulate the country's historic new president-elect. Claudia Sheinbaum is the first woman and the first Jewish person to win the presidency. Claudia Sheinbaum's victory was an absolute landslide. President Xi. President Xi! President Xi! President Xi! President Xi! President Xi!

Starting point is 00:05:26 President Xi! President Xi! President Xi! President Xi! President Xi! President Xi! President Xi! President Xi!

Starting point is 00:05:34 President Xi! President Xi! President Xi! President Xi! President Xi! President Xi! President Xi! President Xi!

Starting point is 00:05:42 President Xi! President Xi! President Xi! President Xi! President Xi! President Xi! President Xi! and mayor of Mexico City, will not only become the country's first female head of state, but is the first from a Jewish family. Her grandparents fled the Holocaust by moving to Mexico. Over the weekend, Claudia Sheinbaum became Mexico's first female president in a landslide victory. Sheinbaum, a climate scientist and longtime activist for the political left, will take the helm from her mentor and

Starting point is 00:06:05 outgoing president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, also known as AMLO. She is not just Mexico's first female president, but the first woman to win a national election in the U.S., Mexico, or Canada, as well as Mexico's first president of Jewish descent. Her victory was particularly notable because Mexico is a predominantly Roman Catholic country with a well-known machismo culture that values traditional roles for women. Much like her predecessor, Sheinbaum's popularity is driven predominantly by the country's poorest citizens. Her vote share of between 58.3 and 60.7 percent, according to preliminary results, is the highest for an elected president in Mexico's democratic history, and this year's election set a new record for voter participation.

Starting point is 00:06:50 Opposition candidate Xochitl Galvez, who received between 26.6 and 28.6% of the vote, conceded defeat after the preliminary results. In Mexico's parliamentary system, if no party has an elected majority in the legislature, the government is led by a coalition of parties to form a majority. Scheinbaum's coalition includes her party, Morena, the ecologist Green Party, and the Labor Party, and it is currently just shy of a two-thirds supermajority in both houses of Mexico's Congress. With the supermajority, Scheinbaum can push through constitutional reforms without support from the opposition, and even without it, she will only need to negotiate with a few

Starting point is 00:07:28 opposition members to pass major reforms. Scheinbaum's first position in public office came in 2000, when she was appointed Secretary of the Environment for Mexico City by López Obrador, the city's mayor at the time. In 2006, she worked as López Obrador's spokesperson during his campaign for president. After they lost the election, Scheinbaum organized protests claiming election fraud, then took a break from politics when her then-husband became embroiled in a bribery scandal. During that break, she served as a member of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In 2018, she was elected mayor of Mexico City, the country's capital and largest city with a population of over 9 million people.

Starting point is 00:08:07 As mayor, Scheinbaum generated a reputation for working with people outside her political party to build out her cabinet. Her administration focused on major infrastructure projects meant to improve mobility and reduce carbon emissions, including a cableway system that could transport over 130,000 people per day, a free Wi-Fi program, and a major solar park. She also faced a few major catastrophes while in office, like the collapse of a metro line that killed 26 people. Now president-elect, Scheinbaum has promised to continue the legacy of López Obrador, who boosted his popularity among working-class voters

Starting point is 00:08:42 by tripling welfare spending in his first five years in office. However, she'll face some immediate challenges. López Obrador was unable to contain spats of government corruption or bring down homicide rates and violence in Mexico, including against politicians. In this election cycle alone, 38 Mexican politicians were killed, and the cartels still control parts of the country. Scheinbaum will eventually have to face the realities of a growing budget deficit driven by López Obrador's welfare spending. Globally, many world leaders are curious to see if she will follow her scientific training on climate change, given that other climate scientists gave her record on climate policy

Starting point is 00:09:19 in Mexico City mixed reviews. Today, we're going to take a look at some reactions to her election from the right and the left, including some views from Mexico, and then Isaac's take. Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, We'll be right back. families' buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is nearly double the historic average of 52,000 cases. What can you do this flu season?

Starting point is 00:10:18 Talk to your pharmacist or doctor about getting a flu shot. Consider FluCellVax Quad and help protect yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages six months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at FluCellVax.ca. All right, first up, here's what the rightists say. The right is pessimistic about Scheinbaum's victory, suggesting U.S.-Mexico relations will worsen during her term. Others cast doubt on the legitimacy of her election. In the Washington Examiner, Conor Pfeiffer wrote,

Starting point is 00:11:04 Mexico's election results do not bode well for the U.S. Missing from the U.S. headlines is that Morena and its coalition partners could receive a qualified majority in both chambers of Mexico's Congress once all the votes are counted. If this majority imposes unilateral changes to Mexico's constitution that undermine the country's democratic institutions, the growing economic, political, and security crisis between the United States and Mexico would only deepen, Pfeiffer said. Whether it's President Joe Biden or President Donald Trump who begins a second term in the White House next year, making concrete progress on these challenges with Scheinbaum's new government must be a top U.S. national security policy. The Biden administration's deeply broken approach to Mexico is a significant failure.

Starting point is 00:11:44 Despite flashy joint statements and shuttle diplomacy with López Obrador, there has only been little progress in key areas of bilateral relationship, Pfeiffer wrote. The central premise of Scheinbaum's campaign was continuing López Obrador's political project. Yet in key areas, the extent to which she will emulate López Obrador's approach or go her own way is unknown. Left unsaid is whether she will accept greater security assistance from the U.S. to confront the cartels and the pervasive impunity in Mexico's justice system after López Obrador's persistent criticism of the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration. In The Atlantic, David Frum said Scheinbaum's victory may be a danger to democracy and security.

Starting point is 00:12:27 Over the past six years, Mexico's autocratic president, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, has sought to subvert the multi-party competitive democracy that his country achieved in the 1990s. He has weakened the independent election agency that guaranteed free and fair elections. He has broken the laws and disregarded the customs that limited the president's power to use the state to favor his preferred candidates, Frum wrote. Scheinbaum will be the first woman to head the Mexican state, the first person of Jewish origin, and the first from the academic left. These firsts will generate much excitement internationally. They should not obscure, however, the most important qualification,

Starting point is 00:13:04 her career-long subservience to López Obrador. Scheinbaum got the nod not because López Obrador wanted a pathbreaker, but because he wanted someone he could control after his mandatory departure from office at the end of a six-year term, Frum said. López Obrador came to power in 2018 with a huge mandate that he won a free and fair election. Scheinbaum comes to power via an election that was free, but not so fair. Because she lacks López Obrador's charisma and popular appeal, her survival will depend on whether she can tilt the rules even more radically in favor of the ruling party. All right, that is it for what the right is saying, which brings us to what the left is saying. The left celebrates the historic nature of Scheinbaum's election, but wonders if she can effectively lead the country as a López Obrador loyalist. Others question whether Scheinbaum's

Starting point is 00:14:02 progressive credentials will carry through to her presidency. In Bloomberg, Juan Pablo Espinado wrote, Scheinbaum's huge mandate in Mexico comes with a dilemma. Scheinbaum will become the first female leader in a traditionally machista country, extending hope to millions of women who still suffer everyday barriers to achieve their goals and dreams. She also obtained the largest share of votes since Mexico began having competitive elections, Spinedo said. The supermajority that Morena and its allies are likely to enjoy will enable them to push for constitutional amendments in Congress after Sunday's smashing win, making AMLO's legacy even more powerful and Scheinbaum's debt to him even bigger. For all practical purposes, after this election, Mexico will resemble a one-party hegemonic system that dominated the country for most of the past century, Spinedo added.

Starting point is 00:14:51 Yet at the same time, Scheinbaum will find out soon, if she hasn't already, that some of the policies she will inherit from AMLO are unsustainable. She'll be forced to change direction if she wants better results. That tension between continuity and change will be the feature of Sheinbaum's presidency until 2030. In the Boston Globe, Marcela Garcia asked, is Claudia Sheinbaum as progressive as her historic victory would suggest? Sheinbaum's victory is a decisive shattering of the ultimate glass ceiling. Hers is a win for women's rights and equality in a country besieged by high levels of violence against women and a society dominated by a strong patriarchal culture. At the same time, Scheinbaum's elevation is not all that it seems, Garcia wrote. Many political observers assume Scheinbaum will

Starting point is 00:15:35 continue on the course set by AMLO, and there are already concerning signs that she will stay aligned with AMLO's policies and style of politics. For instance, during the campaign, Scheinbaum famously didn't commit to accepting the results of the election. She supports the completion of the Mayan Train, a mega-project that has been severely criticized for the environmental destruction it has caused. She also supports the growing role of the Mexican military. Given that context, Scheinbaum doesn't seem very progressive, Garcia said. One can celebrate the first Mexican female president as a milestone, while also raising questions about Scheinbaum's own progressive credentials. It remains to be seen if Scheinbaum is able to forge her own path

Starting point is 00:16:13 and escape the perception that she's going to be AMLO's pawn. All right, that is it for what the right and the left are saying, which brings us to what some writers in Mexico are saying. Some are saying Scheinbaum's supporters laud her victory as a resounding vote of confidence from the Mexican people. Critics say there's nothing to celebrate about an election in which López Obrador improperly elevated his favored candidate. election in which López Obrador improperly elevated his favored candidate. In Milenio, Viri Dios described the message of the 2024 election. In this election, Mexicans were made to choose between two abysmally different stories. On the one hand, the story of hope, a narrative whose main argument is that Mexico is on the right track. There's a long way to go, but we're on the path of putting the poor first and improving the purchasing power of Mexican working-class families.

Starting point is 00:17:07 On the other hand, there is the story of fear, of bitterness, the idea that López Obrador has destroyed Mexico, that we were better off before, and that if we continue the current path, we will soon become a dictatorship, Rios wrote. The voters have spoken. With unprecedented forcefulness, they told us that, in their opinion, the first narrative is correct. Mexico wants to put hope above fear, generosity above rancor. In the opinion of an overwhelming majority, the country is on a better path now than it was before. The numbers are evident. The election was an outcry. On an election day that is historic in size and in the forcefulness of the message, the Mexican people said no more. No more to a country that puts a handful above the rest. No longer a country of poverty and inequalities, Rios said. This is a call to attention to the opposition, especially the PRIPAN. Their strategy in this election was not a failure. It was a complete failure,

Starting point is 00:18:01 a failure never seen in the democratic history of Mexico. In Proceso, José Gil Almos wrote about how López Obrador has violated election rules to favor his own people. What should have been an exemplary democratic exercise was stained by two pathogenic elements that have the same origin, the procrastination emanating from the national palace to fight organized crime and the excessive power of López Obrador sitting in the presidential chair, Olmos said. The victory of AMLO's political heir, Claudia Scheinbaum, leaves a bad smell and taste due to the number of dead, kidnapped, and threatened in the course of a long campaign that euphemistically began with a pre-campaign of several months with an expenditure of multi-million pesos.

Starting point is 00:18:45 It also leaves a discontent and dissatisfaction with the impunity with which the president acted, violating laws and institutions by promoting his party and its candidate electorally from the national palace, Olmos added. Like no other president, López Obrador has violated electoral rules to favor his own. The National Electoral Institute issued 30 precautionary measures against López Obrador for breaking the fairness of the electoral process by intervening in his morning conferences, interviews, and an event in the campaigns promoting his social programs by criticizing the opposition. All right, let's head over to Isaac for his take.

Starting point is 00:19:36 Alright, that is it for what the left and the right and some writers from Mexico are saying, and that brings us to my take. So listen, I am not an expert on Mexican politics, so I'm not going to pretend to understand the nuances of this election like I do the nuances of the Biden vs. Trump election. For instance, there is a very robust debate over whether Shane Baum is an AMLO puppet or a savvy politician who ran a simple and effective campaign in the shadow of her mentor. Did she win her position easily because her predecessor has undermined multi-party democracy and weakened free elections? Or because she just stuck to his simple and popular messaging on important issues while her opponent oscillated between big and bold promises? I genuinely don't know how to parse that question. There are some things I feel confident in though. For one, Lopez Obrador left a lot of problems unresolved that Shane Baum is going to have to address.

Starting point is 00:20:29 Violence is still a major issue in Mexico and one she needs to make a top priority. Cartels control large parts of the country. Roughly 30,000 Mexican citizens are murdered a year, and 90% of those murders go unresolved. citizens are murdered a year, and 90% of those murders go unresolved. In this election season, 38 politicians were killed with little recourse, and around 500 candidates had to be given security protection during their campaigns. From my perspective, that alone makes it hard to see Shane Baum's landslide election as the loudly shouted voice of the people or Mexico's current system as a healthy democracy. Of course, Sheinbaum has had some success addressing crime in Mexico City, where she increased police presence, elevated their wages, and added security cameras in high-crime areas.

Starting point is 00:21:17 Over her tenure, the city's murder rate dropped over 50%, according to official and sometimes disputed government numbers. That kind of success will be hard to replicate in more rural areas of the country, but she at least has some kind of record to build on. It also seems obvious to me that López Obrador was spending at levels that Shane Baum simply won't be able to sustain. Mexico's economy is not strong or robust enough to continue to support its current levels of social spending without huge tax hikes, and while both López Obrador and Shainbaum were executing on their promises, the time is coming soon when the bill will have to be paid.

Starting point is 00:21:53 Finally, I see the Democratic concerns about López Obrador and by extents in Shainbaum as legitimate. López Obrador has violated electoral laws, and Shainbaum has absolutely benefited from being his hand-picked successor. Perhaps my biggest concern is that she appears to be entering office with such a huge majority coalition that she could change the country's constitution without much resistance, given her predecessor's record that is an unsettling prospect. Of course, for Americans, most of the questions about Shainbaum's upcoming administration are about trade and immigration. And in that sense, this part of the story is pretty interesting. We actually don't have good indications of what she is going to do. She has spent her political career exclusively below the

Starting point is 00:22:36 international level and focused so much on domestic issues during her campaign such that U.S. pundits and diplomats have been left mostly guessing on how she'll approach these issues. Will she shut out private investors in Mexico's oil exploration? Will she work with U.S. officials to stem the flow of migrants coming from South and Central America? What about the fentanyl moving across the border? The safe bet, of course, is that Chainbomb will maintain the status quo we had under her predecessor and that we can expect more of the same. Everything from Detroit autoworkers to your avocado toast could be impacted in one way or another by decisions she makes, yet we have so little to show us how she'll make those decisions. People like me

Starting point is 00:23:16 are left mostly trying to fill in blank space. Thanks for watching. Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. What can you do this flu season? Talk to your pharmacist or doctor about getting a flu shot. Consider FluCellVax Quad and help protect yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages 6 months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at FluCelvax.ca. All right, that is it for my take, which brings us to your questions answered. This one's from Ken in Lisbon, Wisconsin.

Starting point is 00:24:39 Ken said, what is the rationale for a member of Congress to leave their political party, become an independent, and then caucus with their former party? Senator Joe Manchin just did this recently. What do they gain? Okay, so I'm glad you're noticing these things, Ken, because there's definitely something interesting going on with Senator Joe Manchin from West Virginia. Let's go through it chronologically. Manchin has served as a moderate Democratic senator throughout Biden's term, who helped his party maintain its razor-thin majority in the Senate. He often bucked the party line, but he was also a reliable Democratic vote who helped Biden pass his signature achievement, the $740 billion Inflation Reduction Act. Then, in November of last year, he announced his

Starting point is 00:25:21 retirement. At the time, his announcement set off alarms about the workings of a Congress that was seeing an unusual amount of early retirements. It also incited speculation about what Manchin could be preparing for. Plenty of people had already wondered if he might be part of a no-labels third-party presidential ticket, a rumor that he had dispelled multiple times, insisting he would just be leaving the Senate. Then, as we reported yesterday in our Quick Hits section, Manchin announced that he is registering as an independent, denouncing his Democratic Party membership. The Wall Street Journal speculated over the weekend that he may have been gearing up for an independent gubernatorial run in West Virginia. However, the deadline to file was on

Starting point is 00:26:00 June 2nd, and Manchin let it slip by. So maybe he's riding off into the sunset in a blaze of glory? If so, why continue to caucus with the Democrats, as you pointed out, or retain his position as chair of the Energy and Natural Resources Committee? That would have been a particularly practical blaze of glory to leave his bipartisan bridges intact rather than fully burned. Manchin has famously said that he doesn't like to close future doors. However, he's also been very clear and consistent that he won't run for Senate in 2024 as a Democrat or Independent, and he's been clear about not running for President. And I think he's telling the truth, but watch for August 1st as that is his deadline to file. My instinct is that Manchin

Starting point is 00:26:41 is playing the long game and could be preparing for a 2026 Senate run, but then I'm reminded that he is 76 years old, and he probably doesn't have much politics left in him. Maybe all of us are just reading too much into these moves, and he just simply felt it was appropriate to leave politics as an independent rather than a Democrat, given where the party has moved. All of this really is a long-winded way of me saying that I'm also pretty mystified, and I can't say with any confidence what his future is going to hold. All right, that is it for our reader question today. As always, if you want a question asked and answered in the podcast, you can write to me, Isaac, I-S-A-A-C, at readtangle.com. I'm

Starting point is 00:27:21 going to send it back to John for the rest of the pod, and I'll see you guys tomorrow. Have a good one. Thanks, Isaac. And here's your Under the Radar story for today, folks. Former President Donald Trump and the Republican National Committee raised $141 million in May, nearly doubling their April total of $76 million. The fundraising bonanza was driven in part by Trump's guilty verdict, the campaign said, with the average donor giving $70 and first-time donors comprising 25% of the month's contributors. Fox News has this story and there's a link in today's episode description. All right, next up is our numbers section. The year Mexican women won the right to vote was 1953.

Starting point is 00:28:09 The number of Mexico's 32 state governors who are women is 10. President Andres Manuel López Obrador's approval rating in Mexico as of April 2024 was 66%, according to Heraclius. Mexico's rank out of 179 countries in the V-Dem Institute's 2023 Liberal Democracy Index is 93. Mexico ranked 49th in V-Dem's Index of Citizen Participation in Elections. The United States' rank on that same index is 23. The U.S. ranked 19th in V-Dem's Participatory Index. The number of violent incidents reported against political candidates ahead of this year's Mexican elections was 560, the highest on record.

Starting point is 00:28:51 The percentage that IPC Mexico, the country's benchmark stock index, fell after Mexico's preliminary election results were announced was 7%, according to Bloomberg. And the percent decrease in the value of the Mexican peso after the preliminary election results were announced was 4%. All right, and last but not least, our Have a Nice Day story. Brittany Brownson, an employee at Homebridge Healthcare Agency in Norfolk, Virginia, was given a surprise gift by CEO Latavia Bennett, an SUV. Bennett learned that Brownson, a single mother, had been walking and taking ride chairs to get to work and felt compelled to help,

Starting point is 00:29:35 impressed by how Brownson always showed up to work without making excuses. I had moments where I didn't feel valued where I was at. So when I opened up my company, that was something that was very important to me, Bennett explained. Sunny Skies has this story, and there's a link in today's episode description. All right, everybody, that is it for today's episode. As always, if you'd like to support our work, please go to readtangle.com and sign up for a membership. As Isaac mentioned at the top, we do have some openings available for internship positions, a writing and research internship, a communications and public relations internship,, a writing and research internship, a communications

Starting point is 00:30:05 and public relations internship, and a business development internship. Those application links are in today's episode description and also in the newsletter. Also, we are close to that 10,000 subscriber mark, 50 or 60 people. If you haven't subscribed yet to the YouTube channel, please take a few minutes, just go do that. It would really help us out. We're going to break that mark. And it's a nice little point on the roadmap to 100,000 and more. So help us get there. We'd appreciate it. We'll be right back here tomorrow.

Starting point is 00:30:33 For Isaac and the rest of the team, this is John Law signing off. Have a great day, y'all. Peace. Our podcast is written by me, Isaac Saul, and edited and engineered by John Law. Peace. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75. If you're looking for more from Tangle, please go to readtangle.com and check out our website.

Tangle - Mexico's new president.

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