Tangle - Nikki Haley gets Koch brothers endorsement.

Episode Date: November 30, 2023

Nikki Haley. On Tuesday, Americans for Prosperity Action (AFPA), the political network founded by the billionaire Koch brothers, endorsed Nikki Haley in the Republican primary. The decision bolsters Haley's campaign at a time when her stock is rising as one of the primary challengers to Trump in the race for the Republican nomination.You can read today's podcast ⁠⁠here⁠⁠, our “Under the Radar” story here, and today’s “Have a nice day” story here. You can also check out our latest video, an interview with Chloé Valdary here.Today’s clickables: A couple of announcements (0:39), Quick hits (2:46), Today’s story (4:44), Right’s take (6:56), Left’s take (10:44), Isaac’s take (14:40), Listener question (17:39), Under the Radar (20:42), Numbers (21:37), Have a nice day (22:34)You can subscribe to Tangle by clicking here or drop something in our tip jar by clicking here. Take the poll. Who would you vote for in a 1:1 matchup between Nikki Haley and Joe Biden? Let us know!Our podcast is written by Isaac Saul and edited and engineered by Jon Lall. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75. Our newsletter is edited by Managing Editor Ari Weitzman, Will Kaback, Bailey Saul, Sean Brady, and produced in conjunction with Tangle’s social media manager Magdalena Bokowa, who also created our logo.--- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/tanglenews/message Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages six months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at flucellvax.ca.

From executive producer Isaac Saul, this is Tangle. Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening, and welcome to the Tangle podcast, the place we get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking, and a little bit of my take. I'm your host, Isaac Saul, and today is Thursday, November 30th. We're going to be covering the big endorsement that Nikki Haley receives on Tuesday. Talk about what it means for the Republican primary. Before we jump in, a couple notes. First of all, tomorrow, I'm going to be publishing a Friday edition in the newsletter titled, I Changed My Mind About Voter ID. This is one of the Friday editions that is for Tangle members only. Also, tomorrow marks the end

of our Black Friday deal we're running right now, which is 20% off your first year of a membership. Reminder that our prices are going up from $50 a year to $60 a year at the end of 2024. And this deal gets you your first year for $40 a year. So if you want to lock in that legacy membership of $50 per year, and you also want to get 20% off your first year, you can go to subscribe at readtangle.com forward slash black dash Friday dash offer. There's also a link to that offer in today's episode description and in the newsletter. Also, as a reminder, I am in Lexington, Kentucky right now, sitting in a hotel room in downtown Lexington. I'm giving a talk tonight at Transylvania University. It's Thursday, 6 p.m.

The talk is at Strickland Auditorium. It is free. It is open to the public. I'm going to be talking about media bias. It would be cool to get some Tangle fans in the room along with the students from Transylvania U. So if you want to come check it out, this is my first time in Lexington hanging out. It's been great so far. And I'd love to meet some folks in person. And the talk is a great way to do that. I think there's going to be a little Q&A afterwards.

Also, a quick heads up. We have a new video up on our YouTube channel. This is an interview i did with chloe valerie a couple weeks ago is actually behind a paywall but we've dropped the paywall in the interview and posted it on youtube as a kind of preview of some of this stuff we hope to launch on the podcast in 2024 that might end up being behind a paywall i think it's a really good interview and she's a super interesting person with some unique views, especially about issues around race in the United States. So if you want to check it out, go look up Tangle News on YouTube and give it a watch. All right,

with that out of the way, we're going to jump in with some quick hits. First up, Henry Kissinger, the celebrated and reviled former Secretary of State, died at the age of 100. Number two, federal prosecutors alleged that an Indian government employee directed a plot to assassinate an American citizen in New York City. A similar accusation was made against the Indian government by the Canadian government earlier this year. Number three, life expectancy in the United States rose by more than a year in 2022, the first increase since the pandemic began. Number four, former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, the Republican from California,

is expected to step down from Congress in the coming weeks, according to multiple GOP lawmakers. And number five, Israel and Hamas swapped another 16 hostages and 30 Palestinian prisoners in the final day of a ceasefire. Talks are ongoing to extend hostage releases, exchange prisoners, and pause fighting. The political network founded by the billionaire Koch family has endorsed Nikki Haley. The group says, quote, in sharp contrast to recent elections that were dominated by the negative baggage of Donald Trump and in which good candidates lost races that should have been won. Nikki Haley at the top of the ticket would boost candidates up and down the ballot. A statement by Americans for Prosperity Action reads in part this way.

When we announced our decision to engage in our first ever Republican presidential primary, we made it clear that we'd be looking for a candidate who can turn the page on our political dysfunction and win. It's clear that candidate isn't E. Haley. Endorsement also comes with a multi-million dollar ad campaign in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and several Super Tuesday states. Does this mean anything in a race that has seemed impervious to change? On Tuesday, Americans for Prosperity Action, AFPA, the political network founded by the billionaire Koch brothers, endorsed Nikki Haley in the Republican primary. The decision bolsters

Haley's campaign at a time when she was rising as one of the few primary challengers to Trump in the race for the Republican nomination. The endorsement is a major blow to Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who has tried to position himself as the main challenger to Trump. 538's average of polls shows Trump winning 58.7% of the Republican primary vote, while DeSantis gets 13% of the vote and Haley gets 9.9%. Emily Siedel, a senior advisor to Americans for Prosperity Action, said Haley could bring in key independent and moderate voters that have abandoned Trump, and said Haley, at the top of the ticket, would boost candidates up and down the ballot. While DeSantis' poll numbers have fallen since April, Haley's have been rising steadily over the last two months as she's become a favorite of Republican donors and opinion makers.

The Koch endorsement will give Haley access to field workers, a direct mail operation, and phone banking in Iowa, the New York Times reported. Americans for Prosperity Action has already spent more than $9 million on anti-Trump expenditures. Trump spokesman Stephen Chung derided the endorsement. Americans for Prosperity, the political arm of the China First, America Last movement, has chosen to endorse a pro-China, open borders, and globalist candidate in Nikki Birdbrain Haley, he said, adding that no amount of money will stop Trump from winning the nomination. Interestingly, many of Haley's foreign policy views, including her hawkishness on Russia and

her stance that the U.S. should not have withdrawn from Afghanistan, run counter to the Koch network's views. Despite spending millions to advance foreign policy positions that counter Haley's in recent years, the group still decided to endorse her campaign for president as an alternative to Trump. The fourth Republican primary debate is now set for December 6th, and the Iowa caucuses are now 47 days away. Today, we're going to take a look at some arguments from the right and the left about We'll be right back after this quick commercial break. First up, we'll start with what the right is saying. The right mostly thinks Haley's momentum in the primary is legitimate, and the Koch network's support will make her even more competitive against Trump. Some say the GOP should go all-in on Haley as its preferred 2024 nominee.

Others bash Haley's recent comments on the campaign trail and suggest she has no shot at winning the nomination. In the New York Post, Isaac Schor wrote about why the powerful Koch network's Nikki Haley endorsement matters. The effect of Americans for Prosperity Action's Haley endorsement will be significant though not decisive, Shora said. What does it say that the Koch Network is supporting someone so out of step with its own outlook on such momentous issues? Haley's free market bona fide surely played a role, but the other major contender in the primary, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, is no slouch in this area and hews much closer to the Koch view of foreign policy. The answer, then, is that AFP Action and its backers, who are putting millions on the line, have determined Haley is much better suited than

DeSantis to take on Trump. It's a conclusion that's not without merit. For months now, Haley has been climbing in the polls on the back of several strong debate performances, Schor said. All this is indicative not just of some amorphous momentum, but a proven ability to move voters into her column that inspires confidence in both the candidate and her campaign. That the pacifist Koch network just endorsed the field's most hawkish candidate shows there's been a serious shift in thinking among the donor and strategist class. In the Boston Globe, Jennifer Nassour argued that the GOP should dump Trump and rally around Nikki Haley. We hearken back to Ronald Reagan often, pointing

to him as the defining leader of the Republican Party who united much of the nation and set us on the path to prosperity. It's that principled leadership that defined a generation, and there are a number of alternative candidates to Trump who embody what it is that made Reagan so successful. I and many others in our party are rallying behind Haley, a fearless leader with executive, legislative, and international experience, Nassau wrote. If we as Republicans are serious about winning in 2024, it begins with nominating the person best suited to not only beat Biden in November, but rebuild the respect for Republican principles that have been lost over the last eight years.

We need a leader who can build majorities in Congress, get our spending back under control, and give Americans hope for the future of the nation. I believe that person is Nikki Haley, but I know for certain that it is not Donald Trump. In American Greatness, Paul Ingrassia criticized Haley's campaign positions and said she wants to destroy the First Amendment. Haley said she wants to use government power to effectively dox every anonymous account on private social media companies, and her ravenous desire to create government lists of people she deems enemies of the state is something out of the Biden regime's playbook. It is already well known how the intelligence agencies and DOJ are already doing this with Trump supporters who peacefully demonstrated at the Capitol on January 6, 2021, as well as for legions of other law-abiding Americans who

protested woke indoctrination and the teaching of critical race theory at their children's schools, or who so much as question the integrity of the 2020 election results, Ingrassia said. Even though we are going to likely dodge a bullet as a country and never, thankfully, be forced to suffer through a Haley administration, arguably the damage has been already done. The fact that a Republican presidential candidate, the last party with any shot at preserving the First Amendment, can go on national television and mouth the same anti-free speech bromides as the left, sounding like Antifa in its most radical mood without significant condemnation, is alarming, Ingrassia said. In a proper country, the political climate

would be such that no major party candidate, unless he was an insane crackpot, would even think to mouth something as grotesquely anti-American as Haley did. All right, that is it for the rightist saying, which brings us to what the left is saying. The left is mixed on Haley's prospects in the Republican primary, but largely considers her a preferable alternative to Trump. Some say her odds of beating Trump are slim, though, and the GOP donors are wasting their money supporting her. Others suggest there are still a number of scenarios where Haley could end up the Republican nominee. there are still a number of scenarios where Haley could end up the Republican nominee.

In Vox, Zach Buchamp said Nikki Haley has no shot. Why can't the GOP billionaire class see that? The only shot for Haley or anyone else to win the nomination is if Trump drops out or drops dead. So why are all of these very rich people making such a terrible investment? To answer that question, we need to move out of the realm of electoral politics and into the domains of ideology and psychology. The quest to find a Don Quixote's tilt at a Trump-shaped windmill is less about Republican politics as they are than Republican politics as a certain class of people want them to be, he wrote. Confronted with two options they don't like, the billionaire class is doing what many people do, insist that there's a third option no matter how fantastical it might be.

Trump is not some kind of aberration, a flash in the pan akin to candidates like Herman Cain and Michelle Bachman in previous cycles. He, and crucially his worldview, are so popular among Republican primary voters that they can't be beaten by throwing money at someone like Nikki Haley. That means the 2024 election is not a competition between an ordinary Democrat and an ordinary Republican, Beauchamp said. Instead of acknowledging this reality, AFPA has simply That means the 2024 election is not a competition between an ordinary Democrat and an ordinary Republican, Beauchamp said. Instead of acknowledging this reality, AFPA has simply chosen to live in a fantasy land where the GOP is still the party of limited government and libertarianism, and where Democrats are implausibly Trumpism's mirror image threat to American democracy.

Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is nearly double the historic average of 52,000 cases. What can you do this flu season? Talk to your pharmacist or doctor about getting a flu shot. Consider FluCellVax Quad and

help protect yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages six months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at FluCellVax.ca. In MSNBC, Zeeshan Aleem argued that the battle for second place in the GOP presidential race is far from meaningless. The Koch network endorsement matters both materially and symbolically. AFP Action has deep pockets, and it has already spent a significant amount of money on the race. It has spent $4 million on ads so far in the election cycle and raised more than $70 million in the first half of the year, Aleem wrote. More broadly, AFP Action's decision is a

signal that in the invisible primary, during which powerful donors, activists, and party elites try to pick candidates before the actual primaries begin, Haley is moving ahead of DeSantis. Haley's rise in popularity also strengthens her case for being picked as the vice presidential candidate. Haley's assets are exactly Trump's weaknesses. She has the polish of a conventional general election candidate and codes as a relative moderate, and she has the capacity to engender trust from the kinds of MAGA-skeptical suburban Republicans who fled the GOP during the Trump era. This is still an unlikely scenario, given that Trump would have plenty of options, and it's hard to imagine him channeling the humility required to partner with a rival.

But her growing popularity makes her an increasingly defensible pick. In the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Lynn Schmidt wrote that it's not too late for the GOP to dump Trump and pick Nikki. Haley remains the clearest opponent to the former president, especially when it comes to matters of foreign policy, national security, and military defense. She is knowledgeable and articulate on the threats facing the United States and democracies around the world, Schmidt said. Haley has consistently denounced Russia. Haley criticized Russia for invading Ukraine in the annexation of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014. Haley was one of the Trump administration's fiercest critics of Russia and

has been a strong defender of Israel. Haley needs to take that big stick while wearing her self-reported five-inch heels on the road and keep explaining to Republican voters in particular why isolationism is bad, why policy over personality will keep America safer, and that she is a winner in the general election. Haley's path to beating Trump will be challenging. It will likely take independents and Democrats voting in open Republican primaries,

like the primary elections we have in Missouri, to even get her close to the former president. If you believe in peace through strength, then pick Nikki. All right, that is it for the left and the right are saying, which brings us to my take. Well, I don't think this is going to change much. I've been saying for a few months now that Trump is going to win the nomination and nothing I've seen since then has made me second guess that bet. It doesn't exactly take a genius political prognosticator. He is dominating all of the challengers in the polls and no politician has ever blown the lead he has in a primary race in modern politics. Still, there are a few things that are fascinating about the AFPA's decision.

First is that major political donors like them continue to pick Haley over DeSantis. Despite DeSantis still polling marginally better, it is clear many of them view Haley as a superior politician, and frankly, I think they're right. She's performed better in the debates, she feels more relatable and polished, and her domestic political right. She's performed better in the debates, she feels more relatable and polished, and her domestic political views are a lot more appealing to moderates and independents than DeSantis's. Second is that they are spending this money at all. I've been saying since early August that the GOP primary was over, even as we've reported on some damning indictments of Trump. Which makes you wonder why all these donors are spending so much money to try to fight

the inevitable. I think there are two worthy theories. One is that they are preparing for a world where Trump can't run, either because of his legal troubles or a health issue. Don't forget, Trump is actually pretty old too, just like Biden. Second is that they are simply preparing the next batch of GOP candidates for 2028. If Trump has it locked up now, you might as well see what Haley is made of down the stretch. Finally, I'm struck by some of the optimism coming from the Never Trump corners of the political establishment. A consistent emphasis in the reporting and opinion pieces from that group about this endorsement is that Haley also just got a much-needed grassroots network of volunteers to join her campaign. In other words, the kind of campaign infrastructure a lot of

critics have said she was missing. But still, for those never-Trumpers to believe that an endorsement is going to change the course of this race in a way that is meaningful, not Haley appealing to the conservative base the way Trump does is just wishful thinking. And while I'm not convinced of this, there is always the possibility we are really just witnessing a race for vice president. I'm skeptical that Haley would attach her political future to Trump the same way Pence did, but I also wouldn't be surprised if the opportunity to be one step away from the Oval Office was too alluring to pass up. For Trump, Haley as a running mate would actually make a lot of sense and probably help him in the general election, though everything

we've seen from his 2024 campaign seems to indicate that he is interested in partnering with diehard loyalists only, not folks like Haley that are willing to challenge him on the national stage. For now, the Koch brothers' endorsement is notable only because of what it says about the GOP donor class, Ron DeSantis, and Haley's future beyond 2024. But unless Trump goes down in legal flames, I don't see any way it has much of an impact in the actual race to be the Republican nominee. We'll be right back after this quick break. All right, that is it for my take, which brings us to your questions answered.

This one's from Alex in Lehigh Valley, Pennsylvania. Alex said, I'm curious whether folks, anyone from normal dudes like me to savvy political consultants like David Axelrod, may be taking the New York Times-Siena poll a bit too seriously. It seems to just be an outlier. All right, so this is a great question. It's certainly too early to be drawing wide conclusions, but I think with his sinking poll numbers, there's good reason for Biden and his supporters to at least be concerned. And it's more than just one poll, it should be worth saying. Biden's net favorability is lower than Trump's, and several other polls show Trump is ahead right now. That said, by and large, I do think you're right to imply that the New York Times-Siena poll has generated an outsized portion of headlines. National polls tend to show

Biden ahead of Trump by about two percentage points, but the New York Times-Santa poll was just buzzier, and I think there's three reasons for that. One is that they focus on swing states, which is really what matters in the election. Two is that there's something compelling about the New York Times forecasting doom for Biden. And three is that the polls showed Biden's support weakening among key demographics like Black voters, Hispanic voters, and young voters. All that aside, the fact remains that it is still just one poll. For instance, a new morning consult poll showing Biden gained four points got very little attention this week. Then, of course, there are still several elephants in the room, the largest among them being the timing of the poll. The election is still a year away.

So much is going to happen between now and then that people probably won't even remember this poll in the final run-up to the election. Polls like this over a year out have a notoriously hard time capturing how people actually make their decisions when they're in the voting booth. And there is still a parade of pachyderms left in the parlor. First of all, I honestly think the best indicator we have of the next election is the one we just had this year, in which millions of people turn out when abortion was on the ballot, which is elephant number two. Americans are still getting off the couch and voting in the polling booth in higher-than-expected numbers to say they want protections for abortion access. One of the

big takeaways we had from the last Republican debate was that GOP leaders are moderating their messaging on abortion now in real time. And that means the message Trump or a different nominee goes into next November with is still largely unknown. That brings me to elephant number three. And as James Carville famously said, it's the economy, stupid. Aside from his age, which isn't going to make any surprise turns, this is what's dragging Biden down in the polls. It's what has the biggest impact on the biggest number of voters. It's what's on top of the mind of every critic of every incumbent going back to the 19th century. And one New York Times-Siena poll in November 2023 is going to mean precisely zero if and when the economy starts to sway in one direction or another. And there's a lot of other major things that are still up in the air. What legislation will

Congress enact in the next year? What new benchmark decisions will the Supreme Court issue? How will Biden and Trump both appear in the debates, and how will the voters respond to them? None of those questions are going to be answered by one poll in 2023. All right, that is it for our reader question today. A reminder, if you want to submit a question, you can do that by writing to me, Isaac, I-S-A-A-C, at readtangle.com.

Next up is our under-the-radar section. Dogs could hold the key to longer and healthier human lives. Increasingly, scientists are studying dogs, which are genetically more similar to humans than other common subjects of aging research like mice to explore treatments for age-related diseases such as cancer and osteoarthritis. Initiatives like the Dog Aging Project at the University of Washington and Texas A&M are studying how physical activity in dogs relates to cognitive function over time, while a number of biotech startups are developing treatments to extend the lifespan of dogs that could also have applications for humans. The Wall Street Journal has the latest on where this research is headed.

That article is behind a paywall, but there's a link to it in today's episode description. All right, that is it for our Under the Radar section. Next up is our numbers section. The percentage of Americans who have a favorable view of Nikki Haley as of November 21st, 2023 is 31%, according to FiveThirtyEight. The percentage of Americans who have an unfavorable view of Haley as of November 21st, 2023 is 31.8%. Nikki Haley's polling average in the Republican primary is 9.9% as of November 29th, and her polling average in the Republican primary on October 29th, a month ago, was 8%. Donald Trump's polling average in Iowa as of November 21st, 2023, is 44.7%, and Nikki Haley's polling average in Iowa as of November 21st was 15.3%. The percentage of Republican voters who say they would support Trump in a head-to-head

matchup with Haley is 68%, while the percentage of Republican voters who said they would support Trump in a head-to-head matchup with Haley is 68%, while the percentage of Republican voters who said they would support Haley in a head-to-head matchup with Trump is 20%. All right, that is it for our numbers section. Last but not least, our have a nice day story. When Ravi Bala was elected mayor of Hoboken, New Jersey in 2017, one of his first priorities was making the city's roads safer. Between 2014 and 2018, there were 4,500 crashes and three deaths on Hoboken streets, including an 89-year-old woman who was killed while attempting to cross the city's main corridor. Once in office, Bala signed an executive order that committed Hoboken to Vision Zero, a global campaign to end traffic deaths entirely in localities around the world. Bala also set a goal

to eliminate fatalities and injuries in Hoboken by 2030. The city's efforts are already making an impact, with changes such as lowering the citywide speed limit, painting and repaving crosswalks, adding curb extensions, and creating new bike lanes. Now, Hoboken hasn't reported a single traffic death since January 2017, and injuries from traffic accidents have dropped to 41 percent. Bloomberg City Lab interviewed Bala about how the city has made it happen. deaths since January 2017, and injuries from traffic accidents have dropped to 41%. Bloomberg City Lab interviewed Bala about how the city has made it happen. There's a link to that in today's episode description. All right, everybody, that is it for today's podcast. As always, if you want to support our work, go to retangle.com. And don't forget right now, you can follow that Black Friday offer in

our episode description to get 20% off your first year of a membership. And again, if you're in Lexington, Kentucky, or you happen to be in the area, I'm giving a talk tonight, 6pm, Transylvania U. There's details about that talk in the episode description and in our newsletter as well. We'll see you guys on Monday. Have a great weekend. Peace. Our podcast is written by me, Isaac Saul, and edited and engineered by John Law. The script is edited by our managing editor, Ari Weitzman, Will Kabak, Bailey Saul, and Sean Brady. The logo for our podcast was designed by Magdalena Bokova,

who is also our social media manager. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet75. And if you're looking for more from Tangle, please go to readtangle.com and check out our website. We'll be right back. about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+.

The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is nearly double the historic average of 52,000 cases. What can you do this flu season? Talk to your pharmacist or doctor about getting a flu shot. Consider FluCellVax Quad and help protect yourself from the flu.

It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages 6 months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at FluCellVax.ca.