Tangle - Pelosi's controversial Taiwan visit.

Episode Date: August 2, 2022

The Democratic House Speaker began her trip to Asia on Monday with a stop in Singapore, and the three largest newspapers in Taiwan — The United Daily News, Liberty Times and China Times — reported that she will be visiting Taiwan on Tuesday night. Plus, a question about the climate change book Unsettled. You can read today's podcast here.You can subscribe to Tangle by clicking here or drop something in our tip jar by clicking here.Our podcast is written by Isaac Saul and produced by Trevor Eichhorn. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75.Our newsletter is edited by Bailey Saul, Sean Brady, Ari Weitzman, and produced in conjunction with Tangle’s social media manager Magdalena Bokowa, who also created our logo.--- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/tanglenews/message Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight.

Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. From executive producer Isaac Saul, this is Tangle. Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening, and welcome to the Tangle Podcast, the place where you get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking without all that hysterical nonsense you find everywhere else. I'm your host, Isaac Saul, and on today's episode, we are going to be talking about Nancy Pelosi's trip to Taiwan, which is expected to happen on Tuesday night, maybe Wednesday morning. Before we jump in,

first off, I want to say thank you for some patience. I know we have not been on the air in your ears for the last week now, you know, 10 days. I was obviously off going to win a world championship in Ultimate Frisbee. And now I have COVID. So I don't sound great. I know that. I'm also in isolation in my little Brooklyn apartment with my wife on the other wing of the floor and trying to make a little podcast studio here that doesn't sound terrible. So I hope it sounds okay. But I understand that there's going to be some noises outside and, you know, it might not be the best sound quality that you're usually used to. So I apologize for that as well. Okay. So with that out of the way, we'll jump in with our quick hits. First up, President Biden announced a successful drone strike in Afghanistan that killed top Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri, who was involved in the planning of 9-11.

Number two, Tim Kaine, Susan Collins, Kyrsten Sinema, and Lisa Murkowski introduced a bipartisan bill called the Reproductive Freedom for All Act that attempts to codify Roe. Number three, Guy Reffitt, a Texas man who attempted to storm the Capitol while armed with a gun and zip ties, was sentenced to 87 months in prison, the longest sentence yet in any case stemming from January 6th. Number four, the U.S. will send another $550 million in arms to Ukraine, the White House said on Monday. That increases the total investment in the war to $8 billion. Number five, Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio, and Washington all hold primary elections today. Kansas's constitutional protection for abortion rights

will also be put to a vote in the form of an amendment to its constitution to allow stricter abortion laws. Will she or won't she? That is the question as it relates to a potential Taiwan, the Taiwan trip by Speaker Pelosi. Now, at this hour, all signs point to the speaker making the visit. She visited Malaysia overnight, and there are reports she may also go to Taiwan. That could anger China, which considers the sovereign island nation to be part of its territory. Congress is an independent branch of government, and that Speaker Pelosi makes her own decisions, as other members of Congress territory. Congress is an independent branch of government and that Speaker Pelosi makes her own decisions, as other members of Congress do. The Democratic House Speaker began her trip to Asia on Monday with a stop in Singapore,

and the three largest newspapers in Taiwan, the United Daily News, the Liberty Times, and the China Times reported that she will be visiting Taiwan on Tuesday night. That would make her the highest-ranking elected U.S. official to visit in more than 25 years. The reports of Pelosi's visit have ratcheted up tensions with China, who has repeatedly and dramatically warned against any such visit. A brief reminder, Taiwan is an island with 24 million people about 100 miles off the coast of mainland China. It broke away from China in 1949, but China has maintained that it is a Chinese territory that can be brought under its control.

Taiwan has held democratic elections for decades, and its current president, Tsai Ing-wen, ran on a platform of total independence from China. Today, support for independence in Taiwan is more popular than reunification with China, though that hasn't always been the case. is more popular than reunification with China, though that hasn't always been the case. We've previously broken down the China-Taiwan history in articles that you can find in today's newsletter. There are links to them. And in May, we also covered Biden's comments about the US strategic ambiguity with Taiwan and China. There is a previous podcast on that you can find by just scrolling back a few weeks. The New York Times reported that Pelosi would likely fly to Taipei on a US military aircraft. Some analysts looking at China denunciations of the proposed visit say that China could send an aircraft to escort her plane and prevent it from landing.

President Biden had expressed worries about the trip, telling reporters that, quote, the military thinks it's not a good idea right now, end quote. On Tuesday, several Chinese war planes flew close to the median line dividing the Taiwan Strait, and several warships have sailed close to the dividing line earlier this week, unusual moves that one U.S. source described to Reuters as, quote, very provocative. Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, a nation some global leaders don't even acknowledge in order to appease Chinese leaders, has created a slew of commentary. In past editions, we've included views from Taiwan, China, and other foreign nations, but today we're going to focus

on this issue through the American lens. In a moment, we'll take a look at some arguments from the left and the right, and up, we'll start with what the left is saying. Many on the left have criticized the trip, warning that it could escalate tensions with China. Others praise Pelosi's activism, but worry about what it may mean for Democrats at home. Some say the visit could ultimately end up hurting Taiwan the most. In the New York Times, Thomas Friedman called it utterly reckless. I have a lot of respect for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Friedman said, but if she does go ahead with a visit to Taiwan this week against President Biden's wishes, she will be doing something that

is utterly reckless, dangerous, and irresponsible. Nothing good will come of it. Taiwan will not be more secure or more prosperous as a result of this purely symbolic visit, and a lot of bad things could happen. These include a Chinese military response that could result in the U.S. being plunged into indirect conflicts with a nuclear-armed Russia and a nuclear-armed China at the same time. According to Chinese news reports, President Xi told Biden on their phone call last week, alluding to U.S. involvement in Taiwan's affairs, such as a possible Pelosi visit, whoever plays with fire will get burned. Biden's national security team made clear to Pelosi, a longtime advocate for human rights in China, why she should not go to Taiwan now, he said.

But the president did not call her directly and ask her not to go, apparently worried he would look soft on China, leaving an opening for Republicans to attack him before the midterms. It is a measure of our political dysfunction that a Democratic president cannot deter a Democratic House speaker from engaging in a diplomatic maneuver that his entire national security team, from the CIA director to the chairman of the Joint Chiefs, deemed unwise. To be sure, there is an argument that Biden should just call Xi's bluff, back Pelosi to the chairman of the Joint Chiefs, deemed unwise. To be sure, there is an argument that Biden should just call Xi's bluff, back Pelosi to the hilt, and tell Xi that if he threatens Taiwan in any way, it's China that will get burned. That might work. It might even feel good for a day. It also might start World War III.

And The Guardian, Lauren Gambino, said there are also a lot of domestic risks. The highly anticipated diplomatic mission caps a foreign policy career defined by what she views as an unwavering defense of human rights and democratic values abroad. It is a posture sharpened over decades in Congress that has made her a target of criticism in Beijing and at times put her at odds with leaders of both parties in Washington, Gambino wrote. Pelosi's party faces a difficult re-election in November, with her gavel in the balance and Biden desperate to generate positive headlines about his economic agenda, not foreign trouble. Republicans are

urging Pelosi to go and ready to accuse Democrats of bowing to Beijing if she doesn't. The focus on Pelosi's travel during the House's autumn recess also threatens to distract from a string of Democratic legislative victories at home. Pelosi has long been one of the most strident and outspoken critics of China, a position that has, in the past, allied her with conservatives. She opposed China's bid to host the Summer Olympics in 2008 and has pushed the U.S. to leverage its economic power to improve human rights and labor protections in China. Her advocacy helped ensure oversight of China when it joined the World Trade Organization. During a visit to China in 2009, Pelosi hand-delivered a letter to then-President Hu Jintao demanding the release of political prisoners. In the Los Angeles Times, Dennis Hickey said the visit could hurt Taiwan. Having already voiced disapproval over a possible Pelosi

visit to Taiwan, China's president is facing his own set of domestic and international political considerations, Hickey wrote. China's leaders and the Chinese public will likely view anything other than continued opposition to the trip as a national humiliation, yet another instance in the nation's long history of caving in to foreign bullying. There's also widespread fear that any retreat from China's recent declarations would embolden anti-China politicians in Taiwan, as well as overseas. All of this comes as China's Communist Party gears up for the most important political event in a decade, the 20th National Congress that will be held in the fall. The outcome of the meeting will likely determine the nation's trajectory for years to come and

whether Xi, as widely anticipated, will be selected for another five-year term as party leader, he said. Caving into this instance of American interference in Taiwan might cast a shadow over this event. It is difficult to understand how a Pelosi trip would help Taiwan. If the dispute over Pelosi's travel plan spirals out of control, the biggest loser will be Taiwan. Some might hope that a crisis over Pelosi's visit will generate sympathy and support for the island while demonstrating American strength and resolve, but Taiwan will find itself on the front lines of any conflict. All right, that is it for what the left is saying, which brings us to what the right is saying. Many on the right support Pelosi, arguing that she must stand up to Beijing. Some worry about the potential outcome and criticize the White House for not reining in Pelosi. Others say Pelosi should go, but take measures to make the trip less provocative.

In National Review, Jim Garrity said Pelosi is standing up to the bully in Beijing. As of this writing, it appears that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will travel to Taiwan. The issue of whether she should visit that country and who are we kidding with our one China policy,

Taiwan is its own country, raises big and consequential questions about when and where the U.S. is willing to stand up to a bully, Garrity said. one-China policy, Taiwan is its own country, raises big and consequential questions about when and where the U.S. is willing to stand up to a bully, Garrity said. A lot of the people in this world like to think that they're brave, tough, and willing to act against injustice, but start looking for excuses once the consequences of taking a stand get high enough. Once the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives said she is going to Taiwan, and the Chinese government demands that she cancel the visit, the speaker must go to Taiwan. Otherwise, backing down communicates to China that if it rattles the

saber enough, it can veto what our political leaders do, he said. What happens when China demands that no other American officials travel to Taiwan? What happens when Beijing demands that the U.S. shut down our de facto embassy, the American Institute in Taiwan, or demands an end to commercial air travel between the U.S. and Taiwan. At what point do we say, sorry pal, but we're a sovereign country and we make our own decisions? If Pelosi doesn't go, then the United States will have backed down from a bully, and bullies are rarely satiated by one victory. In Bloomberg, Niall Ferguson wrote about the four mysteries of Pelosi's Taiwan trip. Here's the first part of the mystery. Why did the Pentagon take three months to figure out

that a trip by the House Speaker to Taiwan was not a good idea? It's not as if relations between the U.S. and China took a turn for the worse only a week ago. Taiwan has been the key flashpoint of Cold War II, Berlin plus Cuba plus the Persian Gulf, since the Sino-American relationship decisively turned sour over four years ago. They must know what's coming. Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel In September 2020, when President Donald Trump's administration sent the Undersecretary of State for Economic Growth to Taipei, China's military retaliated by overstepping the median line that bisects

the Taiwan Strait. Last November, when a U.S. House delegation visited Taiwan, the PLA deployed two dozen aircraft to enter Taiwan's Southwest Air Defense Identification Zone. If Pelosi's trip goes ahead, we can expect more in this vein, but on a larger scale. In addition to flyovers, there could be maritime militia operations around Taiwan, Ferguson wrote. Beijing could also test its latest ballistic missile, the DF-26, the so-called Guam killer, capable of reaching the U.S. base on that Pacific island. Presumably, the calculation in the White House remains, as in the 2020 election, that being tough on China is a vote winner, or, to put it differently,

that doing anything the Republicans can portray as weak on China is a vote loser. Yet, it is hard to believe that this calculation would hold if the result were a new international crisis with all its potential economic consequences. In the Washington Examiner, Tom Rogan said Pelosi has every right to make the trip, but she should fly commercial, not in a military aircraft. For a start, it is nearly impossible to underestimate the degree to which Xi Jinping and the powerful Communist Party Standing Committee view Taiwan through the prism of destiny, Rogan said. Securing Taiwan's return to the nominal motherland would, to the party elites,

physically formalize their destiny of global hegemony. The Taiwan issue cuts to the very credibility of Xi's rule, and he knows it. Most U.S. intelligence and military analysts believe China is likely to conduct a military operation to subjugate Taiwan forcibly by 2030. Contrary to widespread assumptions of U.S. military superiority, any U.S. effort to support Taiwan's defense might well lead to a U.S. military superiority, any U.S. effort to support Taiwan's defense might well lead to a U.S. military defeat, especially given the misplaced priorities of pork-minded members of Congress. The symbolism of a U.S. military aircraft carrying

the second in line to the U.S. presidency to Taiwan would be a very big deal for Beijing. It would stoke China's rapidly growing paranoia in a manner that Pelosi's use of a commercial airliner would not, he wrote. Indeed, the use of a military aircraft will likely encourage Xi Jinping to believe he was cornered and had to react in a major way. While China would be unlikely to shoot down Pelosi's aircraft, a People's Liberation Army intercept is absolutely possible. The very threat of this possibility would make it necessary for Pelosi's aircraft to receive either a U.S. or Taiwanese fighter escort. That would only increase Xi's sense of needing to make a public show of confronting the visit. The risks of escalation

and miscalculation would be high. Alright, that is it for what the left and the right are saying, which brings us to my take. So this is a genuine high stakes moment. It's Tuesday morning as I write this, so I have to say I feel quite a bit of trepidation about making any particular stance that could age poorly in a matter of just 24 hours, say if Pelosi lands in Taiwan with zero repercussions, or conversely, if the worst case scenario of some kind of military interaction takes place. As I am recording this podcast right now, news just broke that Pelosi did indeed land in Taiwan, so the trip has happened. The details of her arriving there are not yet totally clear to me, but that is a thing. I think there are a few things here that

are non-negotiable for me. One, Taiwan is an independent democratic country, and if it wants a US leader to visit, that cannot be grounds for a shooting war or attack. Period. You don't have to be a geopolitical expert to grasp the absurdity of China's position and its threats. We're talking about a leader from America visiting another country. The fact that China has so expertly made this such a risky visit indicates how effective their propaganda and global power have become. Two, Pelosi's intentions seem well placed. I was impressed by the number of conservative writers and politicians who acknowledge that this isn't some new pet project for her. She has decades of human rights activism in the region under her belt, and it appears she is willing to risk her own well-being and perhaps that of her friends in Taiwan in order to make a

statement here. I'm not going to simply broad brush Taiwan as good and China as bad, the situation is far more complicated, but it is commendable that Pelosi is taking a non-negotiable position on Taiwan's autonomy, which the people of Taiwan have, for the most part, chosen. 3. Pelosi's decision to advertise this trip ahead of time has left no great options on the table. Back down, as many conservative writers note, and you look like you just buckled under the saber rattling. Go through with it, despite the warnings, and you bear at least some responsibility for whatever comes next. Neither of these are great positions to be in. With all that out of the way, my biggest concern about any potential visit is actually the impact it could have on the war in

Ukraine. I don't think it's particularly likely that China responds to this visit by invading Taiwan, shooting down Pelosi's plane, or quote-unquote escorting it anywhere. I think it is much more likely, as other writers have pointed out, that they respond by actively trying to undermine America's interest in Ukraine by aiding Russia. So far, President Xi has stayed out of that war, and Biden has managed to navigate the China-Russia relationship deftly. But if China wants to retaliate without initiating an invasion of Taiwan or interfering with Pelosi's plane, one easy answer would be to start supplying drones, weapons, and other military support to Russia, which would be perfect timing given how devastating the war has been for Putin.

I support Pelosi's intent here, and I think conservatives are much more realistic than liberals about China and the necessity for American leaders to demonstrate strength. It's critical that our leaders acknowledge Taiwan's independence, the 24 million citizens there, and our long-standing allegiance with its government. But if Pelosi's trip spirals into an international conflict or thrusts China into the war in Ukraine all without any meaningful benefit for the people of Taiwan, it's going to be very hard to justify in retrospect. All right, that is it for my take, which brings us to your questions answered. This one is from Ben in Idaho Falls, Idaho. He said, I just finished reading a book called Unsettled, What Climate Science Tells Us What It Doesn't and Why It Matters. It argues that

climate models are too uncertain to be very useful, extreme weather trend data is being deliberately misrepresented, and that the economic impacts of climate change will be almost negligible, among other claims. However, a quick Google search pulls up this Scientific American article criticizing the book. I've always been a strong advocate of addressing the dangers of climate change, so how should I think about evaluating this book? It's written by someone who seems relatively qualified, and on my first reading he seems to make some good points, along with some bad ones, so I don't want to just dismiss everything blindly.

But his claims certainly seem at odds with my understanding of the current consensus, and he's basically saying the consensus is wrong anyways. First off, Ben, I have not read the book yet. So it's been suggested to me many times, and I actually bought it on Kindle and read the first 20 pages or so, but it's probably like sixth or seventh on my reading list with a few others in front of it. When it came out, I did read many of the criticisms of it, which I found pretty convincing, but of course I am pretty convinced of the science on climate change and so those criticisms are playing to my preconceived notions. All that being said, I can't give some kind of

response to the book in an intellectually honest way without having read it, which I plan to do. But to address the summation of the book's arguments you listed, the idea that some uncertainty exists in climate models is not particularly controversial. The idea that extreme weather trend data can be deliberately misrepresented to advance a narrative is also, of course, true. However, the idea that the economic impacts of climate change will be almost negligible seems beyond fanciful to me. We are seeing that damage in real time right now, and it's fairly massive. For whatever it's worth, Kuhnen, the author, says clearly in the opening pages I read that, quote, it's true that the globe is warming and that humans are exerting a warming influence upon it, end quote. So I think you should read the book with an open mind and as

an exercise in understanding that climate change, like most big issues we face, is complex and efforts to fully comprehend its nuances should be embraced. I'd never argue that someone should shield themselves from these kinds of contradictory or heterodox views. Best as I can tell, Kuhnen's book is a valuable addition to the debate about how to navigate what he accepts is the very real issue of a warming planet. Dissenting voices are good, and I'm certainly looking forward to reading it in full. All right, next up is our story that matters for the day. U.S. job openings are easing from the historic highs amid a broader economic slowdown, according to a new Labor Department report. There were 11 million job openings in June, down from the record of 11.9 million in March,

but still historically high. 5.9 million people are unemployed and looking for work. The labor market is showing other signs of slowing, however, the Wall Street Journal reported. Hiring eased in June from higher totals earlier in the year, and initial jobless claims, a proxy for layoffs in July, reached their highest levels since November. All right, next up is our numbers section. The number of one in 1,000 year storms we've had in the last week is two. The death toll from floods in Kentucky where hundreds are still missing is 37. The percentage of all electric vehicles registered nationwide that are in California

is 39%. The percentage of vehicles in California that are electric vehicles is 2%. The percentage of Americans who, in a 2021 survey, said we should promote human rights in China even if it harms economic relations is 70%. The percent who said they support limiting the number of Chinese students allowed to study in the U.S. is 55%. All right, and last but not least, our have a nice day section. A dog that was lost in the woods of Minnesota for 29 days has been returned to his owner against all odds. The six-year-old dog named Luigi was lured from his owners on the first day of a camping trip last month. Zane Brunette, who owned Luigi, believes another set of campers wanted the dog and took him with

them as they hiked through the woods. Brunette spent days camping out, posting flyers in the woods, and calling for Luigi before finally giving up. But weeks later, he got a call from a resort owner who spotted the dog some 45 miles from where he was last seen. Brunette said he called Luigi and he came running right away, with no physical issues aside from being about 15 pounds underweight. He's like the friendliest dog I've ever seen in my life, Brunette said. He's just very, very special. Care 11 has the story and there's a link to it in today's newsletter. All right, everybody, that is it for today's podcast. Like I said at the top, I am fighting off COVID for the second time, so I apologize for my raspy, sick sounding voice and my less than ideal podcast studio with some background noise that you may have heard

throughout. But hopefully we'll be back tomorrow, same time with our next edition, and you'll be right here. Tune in. See you then. Peace. Our newsletter is written by Isaac Saul, edited by Bailey Saul, Sean Brady, Ari Weitzman, and produced in conjunction with Tangle's social media manager, Magdalena Bokova, who also helped create our logo. The podcast is edited by Trevor Eichhorn, and music for the podcast was produced by Diet75. For more from Tangle, subscribe to our newsletter or check out our content archives at www.readtangle.com. Thanks for watching! a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to

unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+.