Tangle - PREVIEW - The Friday Edition: 19 more predictions about the future.

Episode Date: December 19, 2025

So, today, I’m going to run it back and see how I do. As I did in 2021, I’m going to accompany each prediction with a one- to two-sentence explanation and a “confidence rating” (or “CR”), so you can see how strongly I hold the belief. The scale is 1 to 10, with 10 being maximum confidence and 1 being lowest confidence. However, I’m not including any prediction that I don’t think has a higher than 50% chance of coming true (otherwise I’d just be throwing darts randomly at the wall). So the 1–10 rating is more like a 51% to 100% rating than 0 to 100.I’d love to hear what you think, or hear predictions of your own. Need a last-minute gift?The holiday season is here, which is a good time to remind you: You can give the gift of Tangle to friends and family! There are two great options: Gift a Tangle subscription. Whether it’s an earnest present to a friend or family member who would love our work, or a passive-aggressive gift for your favorite relative who doesn’t share your politics, a Tangle subscription is a great way to find some common ground and keep your loved ones informed. It takes thirty seconds! Hit the merch shop. We have hoodies, shirts, mugs, stickers, hats, and even onesies for the little ones. Snag something fresh with our new logo or grab a vintage Tangle brain on any garment you’d like. You will want to hop on these quickly to make sure they arrive before the holidays!Ad-free podcasts are here!To listen to this podcast ad-free, and to enjoy our subscriber only premium content, go to ReadTangle.com to sign up!You can subscribe to Tangle by clicking here or drop something in our tip jar by clicking here. Our Executive Editor and Founder is Isaac Saul. Our Executive Producer is Jon Lall.This podcast was written by Isaac Saul and edited and engineered by Dewey Thomas. Music for the podcast was produced by Jon Lall.Our newsletter is edited by Managing Editor Ari Weitzman, Senior Editor Will Kaback, Lindsey Knuth, Bailey Saul, and Audrey Moorehead. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

From executive producer Isaac Saul, this is Tangle. Good morning, good afternoon and good evening and welcome to the Tangle podcast, a place we get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking, and a little bit of my take. I am your still somehow sick host, Isaac Saul. Today is Friday, December 19th. This is a members-only Tangle edition. And today, I'm going to be making 19 predictions about the future. So in 2021, for those of you who are around then, I made 19 predictions about the future. And since that article and podcasts were published, all but one of the predictions has been settled. You can find the results to those predictions by clicking the link in today's episode description or going

to our website, readtangle.com, and checking out an article we publish about it today where I reviewed all of those predictions. I'm not going to go through all 19 of them here, but I'll say this. Their final tally was 12 correct, six incorrect, and one that is still TBD. That prediction was that the first elected female president will be a Democrat. We haven't had a female president yet, so we haven't made a ruling on that. But basically 67% accuracy rate, not bad, especially since I tried to make some predictions that weren't just easy layups.

As I said, back in 2021, I'm not a huge fan of political prognostication, believe it or not, making predictions about the future, it has pretty little upside. Unless you're really, really, really good at it, you basically get things wrong about the future, which just gives your critics ammunition to say you're inept or stupid.

And some people also find it irresponsible, making predictions requires making assumptions, which is by definition speculation, something reporters and even pundits are often criticized for doing. At the same time, I think making predictions about the future and seeing how they stack up is a good test of your own personal knowledge and understanding of the world. When someone is seeing the field clearly, they can often anticipate what's coming, which makes any person's accurate prediction a good signal they are worth trusting. In some ways, I want to test my own understanding of this moment by trying to predict things

that are coming down the pike. Also, let's be honest, it's pretty fun. So today, I'm going to run it back, and I'm going to see how I do. As I did in 2021, I'm going to accompany each prediction with a one-to-two-sentence explanation and then a confidence rating, so you can see how strongly I hold the belief. The scale of the confidence rating is 1 to 10, with 10 being maximum confidence, and one being lowest confidence. But I want to be clear here, I'm not including any prediction that I don't think has at least higher

than a 50% chance of coming true. Otherwise, I'd just be throwing darts randomly at the wall. So the 1 to 10 rating basically should be thought more like 51% to 100% rating rather than 0 to 100. I'd love the ears you think or hear predictions of your own. So without further ado, they are. Hey, everybody. This is John, executive producer for Tangle. We hope you enjoyed this preview of our latest episode. If you are not currently a newsletter subscriber or a premium podcast subscriber and you are enjoying this content and would like to finish it,

you can go to readtangle.com and sign up for a newsletter subscription, or you can sign up for a podcast subscription or a bundled subscription which gets you both the podcast and the newsletter and unlocks the rest of this episode, as well as ad-free daily podcasts, more Friday editions, Sunday editions, bonus content, interviews, and so much more. Most importantly, we just want to say thank you so much for your support. We're working hard to bring you much more content and more offering, so stay tuned. I will join you again for the Daily Podcast. For the rest of the crew, this is John Law signing off. Have a great day, y'all. Peace.

Our executive editor and founder is me, Isaac Saul, and our executive producer is John Law. Today's episode was edited and engineered by John Law. Our editorial staff is led by managing editor Ari Weitzman with senior editor Will Kayback and associate editor's Audrey Moorhead, Bailey Saul, Lindsay Canuth, and Kendall White. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75 and John Law. And to learn more about Tangle and to sign up for a membership, please visit our website at readtangle.com. I don't know.