Tangle - Republicans flip a Texas seat.

Episode Date: June 20, 2022

Last week, Republican Mayra Flores won a special election for an open congressional seat in South Texas. Her win over Democrat Dan Sanchez was a major breakthrough for Republicans who have been trying to make inroads in the Rio Grande region. Plus, Juneteenth and a question about Judge Luttig.You can read today's podcast here.You can subscribe to Tangle by clicking here or drop something in our tip jar by clicking here.Our podcast is written by Isaac Saul and produced by Trevor Eichhorn. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75.Our newsletter is edited by Bailey Saul, Sean Brady, Ari Weitzman, and produced in conjunction with Tangle’s social media manager Magdalena Bokowa, who also created our logo.--- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/tanglenews/message Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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I'm your host, Isaac Saul, and on today's episode, we're going to be talking about Myra Flores and the seat in Texas that just flipped from blue to red. Some of what it means for elections and Democrats and Republicans nationally. And of course, what it means for Texas. But before we jump in real quick, I want to acknowledge that today is Juneteenth. But before we jump in, real quick, I want to acknowledge that today is Juneteenth. This is the second year in a row that Juneteenth is being recognized nationally as a federal holiday. The day commemorates June 19th, 1865, when slaves in Galveston, Texas, learned that Abraham Lincoln had signed the Emancipation Proclamation two years earlier.

In my eyes, this should be a day both of meditation on the sin of slavery and a day of celebration. Laquan Ossian, the founder of the Juneteenth Foundation, said all Americans should view the day as an American holiday, not just one for black people. Think about July 4th, Ossian told Axios. We celebrate that day for American independence. Juneteenth represents our independence from ourselves. Now we all have the ability to pursue the founding father's vision. You can read some more about Juneteenth and the history if you're interested. There's a link to, I think, a pretty fascinating article in Fast Company in today's newsletter. All right, before we get into our main story, we'll kick off with our quick hits for the day. Number one, border patrol agents set an all-time monthly record in May with 223,000 migrant apprehensions at the border, according to new

data. Number two, swimming's worldning body adopted a new gender policy that allows trans athletes to compete in women's competitions only if they did not go through male puberty. Number three, children younger than five can start getting the Pfizer and Moderna shots as early as this week. Number four, in Thursday and Friday's January 6th hearings, investigators showed evidence that Trump advisors privately knew their scheme to have Mike Pence reject electors was illegal. Number five, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said a federal gas tax holiday may be worth considering to ease the burden of soaring prices. Steve, last night, Texas Republican Maida Flores was able to flip a House seat in a special election. The Houston Chronicle reporting she'll be the first Mexican-born congresswoman.

Significant. And last night, if you need more evidence in a special election, a Republican called Mayra Flores flipped a district in South Texas that's 85% Hispanic. No Republican has represented that district since 1870. This is a congressional district that's actually, it's a special election. The lines for this district are all going to change at the end of the year. So what she was elected to was a term that will only run for a few months. She's going to run in a different district this November.

But this speaks to a story we've been talking about since the 2020 election. November. But this speaks to a story we've been talking about since the 2020 election. Last week, Republican Mayra Flores won a special election for an open congressional seat in South Texas. Her win over Democrat Dan Sanchez was a major breakthrough for Republicans who have been trying to make inroads in the Rio Grande region. She will take the seat of U.S. Representative Philomone Vela, who resigned to work for a lobbying firm. Flores will become the first Mexican-born woman to enter Congress. The race was held in the 34th district, which President Joe Biden won by four percentage points in 2020, making Flores' victory even more encouraging for Republicans. However, redistricting will make the 34th district more Democratic

friendly in November, and Flores will have to face Representative Vicente Gonzalez in November's midterms. Democrat Dan Sanchez blamed the National Party for not investing more in the race. Based on the results, we came up short tonight despite being outspent by millions of dollars from out-of-state interests and the entire Republican machine, he said. Too many factors were against us, including little to no support from the National Democratic Party and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. The Democratic Party, meanwhile, argued that it was not worth investing in the race given that it will be up again in November under more favorable boundaries, the Texas Tribune reported. Republicans framed Flores' win as part of a new movement to win

over Hispanic voters in the region where Biden underperformed in 2020. Flores' win as part of a new movement to win over Hispanic voters in the region where Biden underperformed in 2020. Flores worked as a respiratory therapist and came to the U.S. when she was six years old with her parents. Her husband is a Border Patrol agent and she frequently harped on border security on the campaign trail, even describing the border as under attack. She told Politico that despite seeing most of her family vote Democratic her entire life, she began to realize her views on religion, abortion, and border security were more aligned with Republicans, so she got involved with the party five years ago. Flores won 51% of the vote to Sanchez's 43%. Perhaps most notably,

she carried Cameron County, the most populous county in the district, and a county Biden won by 13 points in 2020. Below, we'll take a look at some reactions from the right is saying. The right says the win is a major turning point for Republicans who are making inroads with Hispanic voters. Many call out woke ideology, abortion, and the border as issues motivating Hispanics in Texas. Some argue it is a tangible sign of the incoming red wave. In Spectator, George Neumeier said Flores' victory punctuates the problem Joe Biden has with Hispanic voters. His woke agenda appears to be driving them into the arms of Republicans, he wrote.

Born in Mexico, Flores won the special election for the 34th congressional district on a staunchly conservative platform of God, family, and country, a repudiation of Biden's fixation on secularism, libertinism, and identity politics. Her victory is no doubt setting off alarm bells in Democratic circles, but it can't come as a complete surprise to the party's strategists. Some of the shrewder ones have been fretting recently over the party's alienation of Hispanics. The party of critical race theory is paying a price for its complacency. It assumed that pandering to Black Lives Matter would appeal to all minorities. It doesn't. To the Hispanics Flores represents, lectures about America as a product of white supremacy are boring and irrelevant, Neumar added. What worries them is

not America's past, but its present. Biden's policies are destroying the country, said Flores on the campaign trail. She noted that America under Biden is becoming as dysfunctional as the countries from which Hispanic immigrants fled. Donald Trump got more Hispanic votes in 2020 than he did in 2016. Barack Obama attributed that to a lot of evangelical Hispanics who, the fact that Trump says racist things about Mexicans or puts undocumented workers in cages, they think that's less important than the fact he supports their views on gay marriage or abortion. But the problem for Democrats is broader than that, as the victory of Flores suggests. She poached from the Democrats Hispanic voters who not only support the GOP on social

issues, but also on issues related to the economy and the border. The Wall Street Journal editorial board said it's another piece of evidence Democrats won't win the future on demographics alone. Ms. Flores will serve out the rest of Representative Philomon Vela's term, and it doesn't sound like she won by triangulating to the center. Washington liberals are killing the American dream, attacking oil and gas jobs and causing prices to skyrocket, she says in her ads. We must secure our borders and keep our families safe. Today's Democratic Party is increasingly out of step with many Hispanic voters, the board wrote. Progressives want no restrictions on

abortion. They see oil and gas jobs as a threat to the climate, and they characterize religious liberty arguments as bigotry in disguise. The more that President Biden defers to the leftmost elements of his party, the better the opportunity for Republicans to make substantive gains. Perhaps Ms. Flores' victory will cause a few more Democratic South Texans to reconsider the GOP, it added. A note of caution is that special elections aren't always harbingers. The current tally says about 30,000 voters turned out on Tuesday, compared with more than 200,000 in 2020. Ms. Flores will have her work cut out for her to keep her seat in November. That election will take place under a revised map that makes the district more Democratic. Ms. Flores will face incumbent Representative Vicente Gonzalez, who currently holds the neighboring 15th district. She will need to

work hard these next five months to prove herself. But whatever happens, her win Tuesday already proves that the GOP can compete for her constituents. In the Washington Free Beacon, Matthew Continetti said Republicans are surfing the red wave. In January, FiveThirtyEight published a story with the headline, Some Early Clues About How the Midterms Will Go. The authors, Alex Samuels and Nathaniel Rakic, named four things to watch during the election year. President Biden's job approval, the congressional generic ballot, special election results, and individual election polls. Six months later, all signs point to a great night for Republicans in November, Continetti said. This week, Biden dropped below 40% approval in both the 538 and

real clear politics averages of polls. Since the beginning of the year, Republicans have led Democrats in both the 538 and real clear politics averages of the congressional ballot. That lead is small, about three points, but stable. And on June 14th, Republican Mayra Flores trounced Democrat Dan Sanchez in a majority Hispanic congressional district on the Mexican border. Her victory wasn't just evidence that Hispanic vote is migrating to the GOP. It also supports the case for a Republican wave. If a party consistently outperforms its typical margins in these irregularly scheduled elections, like Democrats did in 2017 and early 2018, it is usually a sign that the political environment is leaning in its direction. The most recent margin in Texas's 34th congressional district was five

points for Democrats. Flores beat Sanchez by eight points. That's a 13-point swing toward the Republican Party, Continetti said. And the Texas special election followed similar elections in California and Alaska, where Republicans also overperformed. When he wrote about special elections in April, Rockets warned that there wasn't enough data to identify a trend. Well, to quote another election watcher, I've seen enough. The results of special elections are in line with the Republican triumph on November 8th. Alright, that is it for what the right is saying, which brings us to what the left is saying. The left criticized Democrats for not stopping Flores' rise. Some argued that this race is a very bad sign for Democrats in the midterms,

but cautioned not to overreact. Others said it's clear Hispanic voters won't be a reliable part of Democrats' voting base. Elvia Diaz said Flores' win should trouble every Democrat. It's bad enough that Democrats did nothing to dodge Republican Myra Flores' blow in South Texas. It's even worse to think that they've given up altogether, Diaz wrote. She'll serve the remainder of Vela's term and thus have to face another Democrat in November in a newly redrawn district that may be more favorable to Democrats. This is where Democrats blew it. They chose to spend almost nothing to retain the seat, essentially handing Republicans

a powerful poster child. Flores is now headed to Washington as the first Mexican-born congresswoman. She's married to U.S. Border Patrol agent and, as the Texas Tribune put it, also dabbled in QAnon conspiracy mongering. And now she has a huge megaphone to tout her story, which is sure to resonate with Trump Republicans and conservative Latinos who, like her, favor abortion restrictions and feel taken for granted. This win is for the people who were ignored for so long, Flores said on Twitter after defeating Democrat Dan Sanchez. This is a message that the establishment will no longer be tolerated.

We have officially started the red wave. She's on to something, at least about the fact that the Democratic establishment is dropping the ball defending congressional seats and wistfully ignoring Latinos to their detriment, Diaz wrote. Democrats are making a similar mistake in Arizona by largely ignoring Latinos, who make up a third of the state's population. The lesson from Texas is simple, and which has been repeated ad nauseum. Fight to win. Spend a lot of money to reach Latinos, just like other voters, instead of just throwing them the crumbs or ignoring them until the last minute. In the Washington Post, Aaron Blake asked, how much does it actually tell us? There's no question that the South Texas result is a significant win for the GOP considering the particulars of this district. Democrats have

controlled the Rio Grande Valley for more than a century, and Republicans picked off a district that's both the country's second most heavily Hispanic, 84%, and that went for Joe Biden by four points, Blake said. Republicans have been gaining in the area for years, with most of former President Donald Trump's biggest gains between the 2016 and 2020 elections coming in heavily Hispanic counties in South Texas and Southern Florida. Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown.

When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is nearly double the historic average of 52,000 cases.

What can you do this flu season? Talk to your pharmacist or doctor about getting a flu shot. Consider FluCellVax Quad and help protect yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages six months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at FluCellVax.ca. But that hadn't yet translated to taking heavily Hispanic Democratic congressional seats. As the Washington Post's Erolez R. Hernandez and Michael Schur wrote in February, Republicans have continued to chip away at long-standing Democratic dominance in South Texas.

The district went for President Biden by just four points, but in 2012 and 2016, it went blue by more than 20 points. Complicating matters somewhat when it comes to discerning what Tuesday's race portends is that the National Democrats didn't really try very hard in it. Texas's congressional map is being overhauled, and come November, this district, one, will be more heavily Democratic, and two, will feature incumbent Representative Vicente Gonzalez on the ballot. The leaning Democratic candidate in this race, Dan Sanchez, was running only for the remainder of the current term. Thus, there wasn't as much at stake as there would have been in a normal special election. Essentially, Democrats' incentives here would have been to salvage a vote for the next few months to avoid forcing

Gonzalez to run against a fellow incumbent and to avoid an embarrassing loss. Ultimately, National Democrats dropped a modest sum on campaign ads in the final week, which Sanchez complained was too little too late. And indeed, he was badly outspent and outpaced on the airwaves. Lloyd Green said it should be an alarm bell to Democrats. Flores is the first Republican elected from the district and the first Latina Republican in Texas's congressional delegation, Green wrote, the Democrats have plenty to worry about. Flores campaigned on being born in Mexico and arriving in the U.S. with her migrant parents. From the look of things, the Democrats'

hold on Latino voters appears to be rapidly eroding. The cracks that appeared in 2020 elections continue to grow. Concerns over the economy and crime have supplanted immigration as a driving issue. With Trump's name not on the ballot, the collapse of the stock market, and inflation rampant, Flores' win is a foretaste of the coming midterms. The special election also served as a blunt reminder of the lack of rapport between Joe Biden and the Latino community. In the 2020 Democratic primaries, Bernie Sanders won Latinos over with a platform of Medicare for all and higher wages. Lunch bucket issues that resonate with a demographic group that leads Americans in workforce participation, Green said. In the February

2020 Nevada caucuses, the Vermont senator netted half the Hispanic vote and triumphed in that contest by more than 25 points. Beyond that, a significant portion of the U.S. Hispanic voters categorized themselves as white, including more than half of Cubans in the Miami area, a 2020 Pew survey found. Contrary to what some progressives have convinced themselves, not all Hispanics feel woke, let alone are inclined to refer to themselves as Latinx. Alright, that is it for the left and the right steak, which brings us to my take. Just a few weeks ago, I wrote about the great replacement theory after the buffalo shooting. In my take in that edition, I made the point that very few people spend enough time talking about precisely why such a theory is nonsensical and

evidence-free. Here's a little excerpt of what I wrote. Quote, even if Democrats' strategy was to import voters, politically speaking, it'd be somewhere between extremely risky and very stupid. Foreign-born immigrants are actually more socially conservative. Hispanic and Asian immigrants are increasingly aligning themselves with Republicans. Immigrants' impact on making the United States more left-wing is decidedly unclear, and I can make a good argument that importing immigrants from quote-unquote first-world European nations, where left-wing politics and socialism often thrive, would actually be the best way to thrust

Democrats further into power. Of course, Democrats have for years championed an odd mirror version of this theory, the idea that demographics are destiny. Because the United States is becoming less white, they have said, it will become more liberal. The future belonged to the left. The major distinction is that Democrats presented these changes as good news, but it has the same problem as it does when anyone else says it. Demographics are not destiny. Political analysts are keen on writing about Hispanic and Latino voters as if they are a monolith, much in the same way they talk about black voters or white voters without college degrees. Mexican Americans in the Rio Grande aren't going to vote the same way as Mexican Americans in Southern California, just as white Americans in't going to vote the same way as Mexican Americans in Southern California,

just as white Americans in Texas don't vote the same way as white Americans in California. And, to extend that thought, a Puerto Rican voter in Brooklyn isn't going to have the same priorities as a Cuban voter in Miami or a Mexican voter in West Texas. Yet, we slap the same label on all of them when we discuss national politics. Race essentialism and demographic obsession obscure the nuance and reality of our country. They don't bring it into focus. What this story should tell us is that voters in heavily Hispanic districts in South Texas are not going to rubber stamp someone because they have a D next to their name.

It should remind us that Republican talking points on border issues resonate strongly not just with your stereotypical Republican voter, but also with many U.S. immigrants living on the border. And yes, it is a good reminder that Biden and Democrats are facing terrible signals in every direction heading into the 2022 midterms. There are some caveats, though. For starters, just 29,000 people voted, compared to 200,000 in the same race in 2020 and over 140,000 in the 2018 midterms. It's also true, as Aaron Blake pointed out, that one district out of 435 should not be overstated. In a pure statistical sense, it's a very small sample size. I also thought political analyst Simon Rosenberg made some great points on Twitter about the way the quote-unquote red wave is being overstated by some. He said, in part, that the most likely Senate seat flip right

now is Pennsylvania and it's going red to blue. He noted that while Republicans are making gains with Hispanics in Texas and Florida, they're losing ground in Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. He also said, quote, Dems now control all eight Senate seats in Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada, and in 2020 won these four states at the presidential level for the first time in 80 years. All of this is good context to keep in mind when you read what I'm about to say. In the larger scheme of things, there is nothing encouraging here for Democrats. Matthew Continetti's piece was the most cogent in this regard. When you look at the four metrics that most accurately portend midterm outcomes, like job approval for the

president, generic ballot polling, special elections, and individual races, everything looks bad for Democrats in the House of Representatives. The only asterisk is the Senate, which, as Rosenberg said too, Republicans are struggling to get their footing in key races. Flores' win is a sign that South Texas is up for grabs, making it another area Democrats now have to defend. It's a fresh reminder that demographics aren't destiny, that minority voters aren't monoliths, and that the political winds can shift in a hurry. If things keep blowing the way they are though, Republican stranglehold on Texas will grow in 2022, and that is looking increasingly likely to be part of a larger congressional makeover. All right, that's it for my take, which brings us to your questions answered.

This one is from an anonymous reader in San Diego, California. This one is from an anonymous reader in San Diego, California. They said, Well, for starters, I think it's important to be precise about what Judge Ludig said, especially given how slow and deliberate he was in his testimony. Quote, Donald Trump and his allies and supporters are a clear and present danger to American democracy. I note this because I doubt Ludig would say his party,

i.e. Republicans, are a threat to American democracy. Ludig is a staunch Republican with extensive conservative bona fides who was appointed by George W. Bush and has been an influential figure in the conservative legal movement for years. He also advised Vice President Mike Pence up to and through January 6th, a man he views as a hero for his role in stopping the attempt to overthrow the election. As for how we should react,

I think we should listen to what he has to say and hear it, really hear it. As I said last week, I am much less interested in the rioting at the Capitol than I am in what we didn't see, which was an actual effort by former President Trump and some in his legal team to halt or overturn the election. Ludig is a former federal appeals court judge and a conservative legal expert who had a front row seat for the whole thing, and his testimony was damning. He said, in no uncertain terms, that members of the Trump administration both knew he hadn't won the election and knew the plan that John Eastman laid out was illegal and would lose 9-0 before the Supreme Court, as Eastman put it. Eastman even asked Trump for a pardon in an email the January 6th committee recently shared during the hearings. Yet they proceeded anyway.

Interestingly, John Eastman was a former clerk of Ludig's, as was Senator Ted Cruz, and Ludig did not hold back about his role. I don't know what will happen in the 2024 race or who will run, but I do know that Ludig made a very compelling case that Eastman knew that what he was doing was illegal and understood he was breaking the law. He also had more than a few enablers and encouragers, and I don't think we should forget them either. more than a few enablers and encouragers, and I don't think we should forget them either. Alright, next up is our story that matters. Republican senators are facing pushback from both supporters and opponents of gun control legislation. Senators like Mike Lee, the Republican from Utah, are facing questions about why they aren't supporting the bill,

despite polling among constituents showing widespread support for what is being considered. Meanwhile, Senator John Cornyn, a Republican from Texas who is leading negotiations, faced boos at a conservative convention this week and is being pressured by Texas gun rights groups to back down from negotiations. Last week, after 10 Democrats and 10 Republicans in the Senate announced the framework for a deal on gun control. The negotiations hit some headwinds. Axios has the story about the pressure these senators are facing and Punchbowl News has the latest on where negotiations are. They're linked to both of those stories in today's newsletter. All right, next up is our numbers section. The percentage of U.S. All right, next up is our numbers section. The percentage of U.S. adults who say they believe in God is just 81%, the lowest in 78 years, according to Gallup. The percentage of U.S. adults who said they believed in God in 2017 was 87%. The number of U.S. companies who made

Juneteenth a paid holiday is 30%, according to a new survey. The percentage of Hispanics nationwide who consider themselves Democrats is 48. The percentage of Hispanics nationwide who consider themselves Democrats is 48%. The percentage of Hispanics nationwide who consider themselves Republicans is 23%. Biden's approval-disapproval rating among Hispanic voters is 48 to 29. All right, last but not least, our have a nice day section. The owner of a gas station in Phoenix is selling his fuel at a loss to help his customers out. Jaswindri Singh buys gas at $5.66 per gallon, but sells it for $0.47 less. With 1,000 gallons of gas pumped at his station every day, he says he is taking on a huge loss, but he's also hoping to give some relief to his customers.

My mother and my father, they teach us to help, he said. If you have something, you have to share with other people. Singh has been living in Phoenix for more than two decades, has three kids, and said he's hoping to make up the loss with purchases from inside his store. There's a story about this in KTVK, KPHO, some local news stations, and a link to it in today's newsletter.

All right, everybody, that is it for today's podcast. As always, if you want to support our work, go to readtangle.com slash membership, and we'll be right back here same time tomorrow. Have a good Juneteenth. Peace. same time tomorrow. Have a.readtangle.com. Thanks for watching! character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is nearly double the historic average of 52,000 cases.

What can you do this flu season? Talk to your pharmacist or doctor about getting a flu shot. Consider FluCellVax Quad and help protect yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages six months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed.

Learn more at FluCellVax.ca.