Tangle - RFK Jr. is running as an independent.

Starting point is 00:00:00 Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight.

Starting point is 00:00:19 Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. From executive producer Isaac Saul, this is Tangle. Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening, and welcome to the Tangle Podcast, a place we get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking, and a little bit of my take. I'm your host, Isaac Saul, and on today's episode, we're going to be talking about Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announcing that he's going to run for president as an independent. Before you jump in, though, I want to give a quick

Starting point is 00:01:05 update. Tuesday, I published this piece on Israel and Palestine. I expected, obviously, it was going to get a lot of reaction. I did not expect what has happened since then. My take from the piece has been viewed about 13 million times on Twitter. There are thousands of unread emails in my inbox. I'm still catching up on texts and direct messages. And there are so many valuable perspectives and criticisms and important clarifications. I also made one important and regrettable mistake in the piece on Tuesday. And so tomorrow I'm going to send a Friday edition to everybody, all our free and paid subscribers via the newsletter addressing some of the overall feedback. Unfortunately, there will not be a version of this in the podcast only because

Starting point is 00:01:56 it's going to be an insanely long edition because I'm copying and pasting a bunch of reader feedback and it would just be an absurdly long podcast to publish of me reading all of it. So if you want to check it out, you can go to our website, readtangle.com, sometime tomorrow afternoon Eastern. You will see the piece featured on the website. It will be available to everybody, whether you are a paid subscriber or not. Thank you all for everyone who wrote in. Keep an eye out for the email and keep an eye on the website if you're interested in that follow-up. And of course, keep praying and hoping and wishing for peace. All right, with that out of the way, we're going to jump in today with some quick hits.

Starting point is 00:02:43 First up, an update on the happenings in Israel and Gaza. Egypt reportedly warned Israel of potential violence three days before the Hamas attack. Children were found butchered in an Israeli kibbutz that Hamas had attacked, and 22 Americans are now reported among the 1,200 killed. Egypt and Israel are working to evacuate more than 500 Americans and hundreds of other foreign nationals who are in Gaza, including UN workers, journalists, and aid workers. Egypt has continued to reject an evacuation corridor from Gaza across its border for Palestinians. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Benny Gantz agreed to a rare emergency unity government. The Geisen Health Ministry says 1,354 Palestinians have been killed in the

Starting point is 00:03:31 Israeli strikes since Saturday, and another 6,049 were injured. Number two, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, the Republican from Louisiana, won the GOP nomination for Speaker of the House on Wednesday. Now he will face a floor vote to get elected. A number of Republican representatives have said they won't support him. Number three, ExxonMobil has agreed to purchase Pioneer Natural Resources for $59.5 billion, which will allow Exxon to expand into the Permian Basin in West Texas and New Mexico. Number four, the United States announced $200 million in additional aid to Ukraine, bringing the total commitment to just shy of $44 billion. Separately, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky made a surprise visit to NATO

Starting point is 00:04:17 headquarters to ask for more military support. And number five, Supreme Court justices expressed skepticism that South Carolina's Republican-controlled legislature unconstitutionally gerrymandered Black voters out of a congressional district. I'm here to declare myself an independent candidate. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who entered the presidential race in April with a long shot bid as a Democratic candidate, now embracing the role as a potential third party spoiler. Robert Kennedy Jr. spoke to hundreds on the lawn in front of the Constitution Center today, some who traveled for hours to see him. in front of the Constitution Center today, some who traveled for hours to see him.

Starting point is 00:05:08 Now, in this crowd, I met Democrats, a Republican, a Green Party voter, and those who voted for Donald Trump and President Joe Biden, now here to see Robert Kennedy. The impact of their votes potentially going to him, unclear in terms of what it means for Kennedy and for other candidates. The Democrats are frightened that I'm going to spoil the election for President Biden. Republicans are frightened that I'm going to spoil it for President Trump. The truth is they're both right. My intention is to is to spoil it for both of them. Earlier this week, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced that he will be running for president as an independent and is no longer seeking the Democratic nomination. The 69-year-old longtime environmental

Starting point is 00:05:51 lawyer and activist has spent much of his career fighting pollution and pushing to rein in the power of corporations. More recently, he has sparked controversy for decrying the U.S. commitment to the war in Ukraine, questioning the efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines, and for appearing on the Joe Rogan podcast to defend his record of questioning the safety of other vaccines. He's the son of former New York Senator Robert F. Kennedy, who was assassinated in 1968, and the nephew of former President John F. Kennedy, who was assassinated in 1963. In 2019, two of his siblings and his niece published a piece in Politico denouncing his stance on vaccines. Since he entered the race as a Democrat, Kennedy has been described as a long shot,

Starting point is 00:06:31 though his polling numbers have been unusually strong for a primary challenger of an incumbent president. A recent Ipsos poll found 14% of all voters would support him in a hypothetical three-way race with President Biden and former President Trump, more than enough to have a significant impact on the race. The poll also found that Kennedy's unfavorability rating at 38% is lower than Biden's at 56% or Trump's, which is also 56%. His decision to run as an independent may more closely represent his appeal to voters who are dissatisfied with both parties and want an alternative to the expected Biden-Trump rematch. However, both sides fear his role in the race as a potential spoiler. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s siblings, Kerry Kennedy, Rory Kennedy, Joseph P. Kennedy II, and Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, denounce their brother's campaign. The decision of our brother Bobby to run as a third-party candidate against President Joe

Starting point is 00:07:24 Biden is dangerous to our country, the siblings said in a statement on Twitter. We denounce his candidacy and believe it to be perilous for our country. Republicans are also concerned about the announcement. Voters should not be deceived by anyone who pretends to have conservative values, said Trump's spokesperson Stephen Chung in a statement, calling Kennedy's campaign nothing more than a vanity project for a liberal Kennedy looking to cash in on his family's name. Meanwhile, Kennedy is staunchly critical of both parties, and on his campaign website, he emphasizes his core issues of promoting honest government, healing the political divide, championing environmental issues, supporting government assistance for the impoverished, ending foreign wars, and restoring freedom of speech.

Starting point is 00:08:04 He also tries to address the claim that he is anti-vaccine and to distance himself from that label. Today, we're going to take a look at how his announcement to run as an independent is being received by the left and right, and that out of the way, we'll start off with what the left is saying. The left is mixed in their reaction to the news, though most are glad Kennedy is no longer running as a Democrat. Some say the move helps Biden by eliminating the chance of any surprise outcomes in the primaries. Others say it's too early to tell what the effect will be, but both parties should be on high alert. In MSNBC, Zeeshan Aleem explored whether RFK Jr. could siphon off voters from both major parties. If you haven't been following the race closely, you might think an independent Kennedy run would hurt Biden in the general election. If Kennedy is consistently able to attract the support of a non-trivial share of

Starting point is 00:09:09 the Democratic electorate, he could theoretically inspire some of those voters to defect from the party for him, Malim said. But if you've been following the race or Kennedy's political views, you'll know that Kennedy hardly resembles a Democrat. Some of his policy positions are progressive on issues such as raising the minimum wage, cracking down on corporate union busting, and making it clear to get rid of student debt. But he is also skeptical of fighting climate change, opposes universal health care, and declares we should have closed borders. As of now, Kennedy is a true 2024 wildcard. In the online world of political punditry, Kennedy seems to code increasingly as a right-winger. That doesn't mean voters will see him that way. Many of Kennedy's views that

Starting point is 00:09:50 endear him to the right do have a minor constituency on the left. There are people left of center who are skeptical of vaccines and the medical establishment and who share his skepticism of supporting Ukraine. And he has enough left-leaning views, particularly on the economy, to honestly appeal for their votes. Neither party should sleep on him. Nobody, seemingly including Kennedy himself, knows where his candidacy is headed. In New York Magazine, Ed Kilgore argued that RFK Jr.'s independent run means one less headache for Biden. The truth is we don't have a good way of assessing a Kennedy independent candidacy until we see if he has the money and the moxie to get on the ballot in competitive states. It won't be easy now that the adulatory treatment he has been getting from conservative media as a

Starting point is 00:10:33 burr under Biden's saddle may come to an abrupt end. But we do know the absence of the Kennedy name on the Democratic primary ballots next year is an unambiguous boon to the incumbent, Gilgore wrote. Biden can run as the all-but-unanimous Democratic favorite who need not campaign for the nomination or even look or sound defensive about refusing to debate intraparty opponents. Gone with RFK Jr.'s Democratic candidacy, moreover, is any fear of an embarrassingly poor showing in New Hampshire whose rogue primary he could not enter and that media folk might find themselves unable to ignore, Kilgore added. Kennedy also takes with him, via his departure from his

Starting point is 00:11:10 ancestral party, any lingering affection of Democrats for him in tribute to his famous relatives. What's left is a veteran scandal monger and misinformation peddler who belongs to no party, but no party really wants him. In CNN, Harry Enten said RFK Jr.'s independent ticket could make a big difference in the election. While Kennedy's bid for the Democratic nomination was largely inconsequential, he could play a big role as an independent candidate in determining the winner of the general election. The polling on an independent run by Kennedy is limited, but the data we do have suggests he would start out as one of the strongest third-party or independent candidates of the century, Endeen wrote. A Reuters Ipsos poll conducted this past week among likely voters finds former President Trump at 40%, Biden at 38%,

Starting point is 00:11:56 and Kennedy at 14% in the hypothetical November 2024 matchup. From a historical perspective, the 14% for Kennedy is quite unusual. The question, therefore, is which of them should fear a Kennedy candidacy more? The answer is far from clear at this early stage. Although Kennedy has so far been running in the Democratic primary, his favorability ratings are far higher among Republicans. Polling has shown that Kennedy's presence on the ballot compared to a generic third-party candidate gives Trump an edge over Biden, so Kennedy could benefit Republicans a tad more. The race between Biden and Trump is so close, though, that I'm not sure either side wants to risk a Kennedy candidacy, potentially taking votes away from them. All right, that is it for The Leftist Thing, which brings us to what the right is saying.

Starting point is 00:12:50 The right thinks Kennedy is still poised to undercut Biden's support with the Democrats, but is unsure of how his presence will impact the broader race. Some say that Trump and his supporters should be wary of propping up RFK Jr. now that he's running as a third-party candidate. Others suggest both parties are in danger of losing votes to RFK Jr. now that he's running as a third-party candidate. Others suggest both parties are in danger of losing votes to RFK Jr. In Fox News, Liz Peek outlined the reasons why RFK Jr. poses a real threat to Biden. RFK reminds voters that Democrats did not used to be the party of war or backers of Big Pharma. He rails about corruption in both major parties and the bitter partisanship dividing our nation.

Starting point is 00:13:29 He pledges to be honest with the American people, Peek said. Kennedy's politics are all over the lot. Conservatives love his skepticism about top-down vaccine mandates, but loathe his green energy embrace, enthusiasm for big labor, and opposition to defense spending. Democrats may celebrate his push for free child care, but they hate his determination to stamp out illegal immigration and they are horrified by his anti-vax history. Kennedy offers something for everybody, which threatens especially Joe Biden and, to a lesser degree, Donald Trump. Trump supporters, and Ipsos poll reveals, are more committed to their candidate than our backers of Biden. They are less likely to stray, Peek said. The election is a long way off, and independent candidates rarely make much of a dent. This time, it could be different in that the two leading contenders are both unpopular. More importantly and more worrisome for Biden is that young voters

Starting point is 00:14:14 aged 18 to 29 appear to be drifting away from the Democratic Party and becoming independents. These voters could latch on to RFK Jr.'s campaign. These voters could latch on to RFK Jr.'s campaign. Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. In Newsweek, Stephen L. Miller said RFK Jr.'s independent candidacy is a lesson for MAGA

Starting point is 00:14:57 World. Be careful what you wish for. Kennedy's horseshoe philosophies and campaign have found allies on the political right, so much so that he may end up hurting former President and Republican frontrunner Donald Trump more than President Biden in the 2024 election. Kennedy's Democratic populism has found a home in MAGA World media, whose punditry sees him as a useful ally and tool against Joe Biden and, in particular, the mainstream media. He's successfully courted some of MAGA World's biggest media stars, who've given him a large platform to stand on and his popularity

Starting point is 00:15:29 with Republican voters eclipses that of Democratic ones, Miller said. Yet MAGA World embraces Kennedy at their own peril. Recent polling has shown that Kennedy would not hurt Biden as an independent in a general election run, though he would hurt Trump. The prospect of a Kennedy third-party run should be putting Donald Trump and his supporters on all kinds of notice. With the narrow margins with which Trump lost the previous election, RFK's popularity could be enough to swing the election to Biden, especially with the coveted normie suburban voters who don't align with some of Kennedy's more extreme positions. In Red State, Ward Clark wrote about why RFK Jr. could spell danger for both parties. Kennedy's stated political opinions seem to straddle both sides. His background as an environmental lawyer may cost him some GOP support.

Starting point is 00:16:16 He is pro-same-sex marriage but against the COVID panics. On the Second Amendment, his statement is that he believes in gun control, but that the Supreme Court has, presumably in the Bruin decision, decided the issue of keeping and bearing arms. There are positions in his portfolio that will appall and appeal to both sides, Clark said. If Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has an advantage, one that may make him a major spoiler, it is this. At the moment, he commands a big advantage in favorability ratings. But bear in mind, it's awfully early in the game, and we haven't heard all that much from him yet compared to the other major candidates.

Starting point is 00:16:49 In other words, while everyone knows where Mr. Kennedy springs from, too many people do not as yet really know who he is. On the other hand, we certainly do know who Donald Trump is, and he's spent a great deal of time telling us, and in the Republican primary debates, we've been learning quite a bit about the GOP's other contenders. And the one other fly in the ointment is that Joe Biden almost certainly won't be the Democrats' candidate. At this juncture, who that candidate might be is anyone's guess. All right, that is it for the left and the right are saying, which brings us to my take. So I think he's got everyone's attention again. If Kennedy were going to keep running as a Democrat,

Starting point is 00:17:36 his effect on this race would have been limited. He never had a shot of winning that primary, and he still has a near zero chance of winning the general election, though of course that could change if Trump actually goes to jail and Biden actually has some major health episode. But he will have a stronger chance of impacting a Biden-Trump race if he sticks this out as an independent candidate. To be clear, Kennedy is no conservative. I think his language is coded with a lot of stuff that appeals to the conservative base right now on corrupt media, morally bankrupt politicians, forever wars, and vaccine hesitancy. But his policy positions are mostly old school liberal, and in some cases, very progressive democratic positions. Look at Kennedy's priorities on the economy,

Starting point is 00:18:22 and you'll struggle to find a difference between him and Senator Bernie Sanders. Minimum wage at $15, prosecuting union-busting corporations, free childcare, and so on. His entire professional career was built on environmentalism, and while he has expressed some skepticism about energy policies like the Green New Deal, he is wholly committed to using the government to address climate change. He wants to incentivize zero waste cycles and clean energy sources while also curbing mining, oil drilling, and suburban sprawl. That is just his left and in some ways maybe more so than President Biden's climate change agenda. On his campaign website, one of his 11 priorities as president is about Native

Starting point is 00:19:01 Americans and his commitment to representing their interests. That's hardly a conservative priority. As for how this decision impacts Biden and Trump, I genuinely think it is too early to say. There's still a lot we don't know. Will he get on a debate stage with Biden and Trump? I hope he does, for the sake of having an option that isn't the red-blue duopoly, but whether he does or doesn't could change the shape of the race in a big way. I know plenty of Democrats want an option that isn't Biden, but I also think RFK Jr. is going to get crushed once he goes through the partisan media ringer. As I've written before, many of his views are indefensible, and he is prone to some wild claims. When you have headlines floating around like RFK Jr. says COVID may have been ethnically targeted to spare Jews, you are going to run into a lot of electoral trouble. Also, if this really does end up being

Starting point is 00:19:51 a race between Biden and Trump, I think enough Democrats are so committed to ensuring Trump doesn't win the White House again that they will stick by Biden nearly wholesale in the end. Speaking of Trump, what conservative voter who is planning to cast a ballot for him is going to jump ship to Kennedy? I'm trying and struggling to paint a picture of one in mind. Again, there may be something there for them on immigration policy and rhetoric about COVID-19 vaccines, but if they're considering leaving Trump for Kennedy, then they are going to run headfirst into mostly progressive positions. I imagine anyone planning to vote for Trump at this point will decide to keep their vote there after Trump hammers Kennedy with a few barbs, or in what is

Starting point is 00:20:30 a near certainty, comes up with some derisive nickname for him. The most interesting voters to watch are the other cohorts. America is not a binary of red and blue. What about never-Trump Republicans? Kennedy has the policy positions of progressives paired with some Trumpian rhetoric on vaccines in Ukraine. That's the worst of both worlds for them, so I don't see him winning that camp. What about hardcore progressives who want Biden to go left? I could see some appeal in Kennedy, especially among the liberals

Starting point is 00:20:59 who are more antagonistic toward vaccines, but will enough of them cede a vote against Trump to cast a ballot for a candidate who can't win just to make a point? It's possible, but I'm skeptical. And yet, Kennedy's poll numbers are truly stunning. As a share of the electorate, they would represent a historic performance for an independent. They're also in line with one of my 19 predictions about the future that I made at the end of 2021. I said, quote, in the 2024 presidential election, a third party candidate will carry the largest percentage of the popular vote since Ross Perot in 1996, who got 8.4%. On the net, I think Kennedy is a much

Starting point is 00:21:37 bigger threat to Biden than Trump. Trump supporters are just more loyal, and all Kennedy has to do is peel off 1-2% in some important swing states to change the election, and I do think he is capable of that. The question is whether he is comfortable with that. Will he run his candidacy to the end if it becomes clear he is hurting Biden, a man he seems to respect deeply, and helping Trump, a candidate whom he is deeply critical of? That's one of the things we just still don't know. whom he is deeply critical of? That's one of the things we just still don't know. All right, that is it for my take, which brings us to your questions answered. This one is from an anonymous reader in Bozeman, Montana. They said, I appreciate your honest and open response

Starting point is 00:22:19 to this tragedy in Israel and Gaza. Your fairness helped me to understand the underlying issue more clearly. My question is, how is your statement about money freed up by the Biden administration's prisoner swap not fueling the misinformation machine in the U.S. when everything I've read says that none of that money has been released yet? First of all, thank you for the kind feedback about the piece we wrote on Israel and Palestine on Monday. And again, to all the other readers who have written in with criticism or questions about that piece, please know that my phone is melting and my inbox is overloaded and I'm trying hard to respond to everyone. But today I want to respond to this question since it's tangential to the main point and I've received similar pushback from a few

Starting point is 00:22:59 other readers on it as well. Yes, I did write the following quote. Iran probably helped organize the attack, and the money freed up by the Biden administration's prisoner swap probably didn't help the situation either. And first off, you and other readers are right that Iran still does not have the $6 billion of Iranian funds the U.S. released as part of the recent prisoner swap deal. That money was already Iran's, it was frozen in a bank in South Korea, and it is currently being held in Doha, Qatar. It's also true that those funds are specifically designed to be spent for only humanitarian purposes. A State Department spokesperson said, and as we've said many times, it can only be used to purchase food, medicine, medical devices, and agricultural products for

Starting point is 00:23:41 the people of Iran. All of that is true, but I still stand by what I wrote simply because that money being on the way to Iran does free up money they currently have to be spent as they wish. I don't see how it couldn't. As many Republican critics have said in response to the deal, money is fungible. Just because we think we can track where each of these dollars goes doesn't mean that we can track the destination of the dollars Iran currently has that these dollars will be displacing. And I'll reiterate my original phrasing. Those funds coming to Iran probably didn't help. We don't know for sure that Iran preparing to recuperate six billion dollars of designated funds resulted in some sending money to Hamas or Hezbollah, and it looks like this attack could

Starting point is 00:24:26 have been planned for some time. But I think there's good reason to believe that it could have. All right, that is it for your questions answered, which brings us to our under-the-radar story. The high school class of 2023 had the lowest ACT admissions test scores in more than 30 years. Scores had already been falling for six consecutive years, but the trend accelerated during COVID-19. Average ACT composite test scores for U.S. students was 19.5 out of 36. Last year, it was 19.8. Average test scores in reading, science, and math were all below the benchmarks the ACT says students need to hit for a high probability of success in first-year college courses.

Starting point is 00:25:11 The hard truth is that we are not doing enough to ensure that graduates are truly ready for post-secondary success in college and career, Janet Godwin, the chief executive officer of the nonprofit ACT said. 1.4 million students took the ACT this year. CBS News has the story. There's a link to it in today's episode description. All right, next up is our numbers section. The percentage of voters who say they would support RFK Jr. in a three-way race with Trump and Biden in the 2024 presidential election is 14%, according to a Reuters Ipsos survey. The polling average of Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson four months before the 2016 presidential election was 9.8%. The percentage of the national vote that

Starting point is 00:25:56 Johnson ultimately received in the 2016 election was 3.3%. The percentage of Democrats who have a very or somewhat favorable view of RFK Jr. is 28%, according to a New York Times-Siena College poll. The percentage of 2020 Biden voters who have had a very or somewhat favorable view of RFK Jr. is 22%. The percentage of Republicans who have a very or somewhat favorable view of RFK Jr. is 55%. And the percentage of 2020 Trump voters who have a very or somewhat favorable view of RFK Jr. is 55% also. The percentage of voters who live in the South and have a very or somewhat favorable view of RFK Jr. is 44%, and the percentage of voters who live in the Northeast and have a

Starting point is 00:26:36 favorable view of him is just 32%. All right, that is it for our numbers section. And last but not least, our have a nice day story. Generally speaking, most vaccines work by instigating an immune system response. But this approach doesn't work for autoimmune diseases, where the immune system becomes the enemy. New research by scientists at the University of Chicago could offer a way forward. An inverse vaccine reported this month in Nature Biomedical Engineering was shown effective in mice by attaching sugars to molecules that provoke immune cells and could potentially lead to new ways to combat autoimmune diseases such as multiple sclerosis and lupus. Though peers are suggesting cautious optimism, as the new approach is unproven

Starting point is 00:27:22 in humans, the novel approach has garnered acclaim. The method they use is promising and potentially can induce better tolerance, says neurologist and neuroimmunologist A.M. Rastami of Thomas Jefferson University. Science.org has the story and a breakdown of what to take away from it. There's a link to it in today's episode description. All right, everybody, that is it for today's podcast. As I said at the top, if you want to hear a follow-up on Tuesday's Israel, Palestine, Gaza, Hamas, peace, all that stuff, which you should want to hear a follow-up on it, there's a lot more to be said. Please do keep an eye out for tomorrow's newsletter. There will not be a podcast version of it because it is

Starting point is 00:28:02 going to be very long. Before you go, a quick heads up that we have a new YouTube video up on our channel, Tangle News on YouTube, about the conflict in Israel and Palestine and the attack from Hamas in Israel. It is a version of my take from Tuesday, and I would greatly appreciate it if you went and watched it. Don't forget, when you get to the channel, be sure to like and subscribe. And otherwise, we'll be right back here on Monday. Have a good one. Peace. Our podcast is written by me, Isaac Saul, and edited by John Law. Our script is edited by Ari Weitzman, Bailey Saul, and Sean Brady. The logo for our podcast was designed by Magdalena Bukova, who's also our social media manager. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75.

Starting point is 00:28:51 For more on Tangle, please go to readtangle.com and check out our website. We'll see you next time. who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+.

Tangle - RFK Jr. is running as an independent.

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