Tangle - SPECIAL EDITION: 14 thoughts on Israel striking Iran.

Episode Date: June 13, 2025

Today, we originally planned to publish a piece from Tangle’s newest team member, Editor-at-Large Kmele Foster, about his view on the racial reckoning in the United States since the summer of 2020. ...However, late last night Israel launched a large-scale coordinated attack on Iran, so we decided to release a special edition to all Tangle subscribers covering the news.We’re still very excited to share Kmele’s piece with everyone in a future Friday edition. However, we decided that the latest news necessitated a special edition this morning.Early Friday morning, around 3:30am local time in Tehran, Israel launched a series of coordinated attacks against Iran, targeting military bases, top generals, and nuclear enrichment facilities. Over 200 Israeli aircraft took part in the strikes on over 100 different targets. According to senior Iranian officials, at least six military bases around the capital of Tehran were attacked, along with residential homes in military compounds, defense and industrial compounds in Kermanshah and Isfahan, and radar facilities in Piranshahr. Israel also targeted key components of Iran’s nuclear program, striking Iran’s main enrichment facility in Natanz and a nuclear research center in Tabriz, along with two military bases and an airport in the country’s northwest. Ad-free podcasts are here!Many listeners have been asking for an ad-free version of this podcast that they could subscribe to — and we finally launched it. You can go to ReadTangle.com to sign up!You can subscribe to Tangle by clicking here or drop something in our tip jar by clicking here. Our Executive Editor and Founder is Isaac Saul. Our Executive Producer is Jon Lall.This podcast was written by Isaac Saul and edited and engineered by Jon Lall. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75.Our newsletter is edited by Managing Editor Ari Weitzman, Senior Editor Will Kaback, Hunter Casperson, Kendall White, Bailey Saul, and Audrey Moorehead.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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Starting point is 00:00:00 I'm Joshua Jackson, and I'm returning for the Audible original series, Oracle, Season 3, Murder at the Grandview. Six forty-somethings took a boat out a few days ago. One of them was found dead. The hotel, the island, something wasn't right about it. Psychic agent Nate Russo is back on the case, and you know when Nate's killer instincts are required, anything's possible.
Starting point is 00:00:21 This world's gonna eat you alive. Listen to Oracle Season 3, Murder at the Grandview, now on Audible. Did you know that socks are one of the most requested clothing items by organizations addressing homelessness? It's true. And it's also why we started Bombas. Every time you buy, well, anything from Bombas,
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Starting point is 00:01:40 Welcome to the Tangle Podcast, the place we get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking and a little bit of my take. I'm your host, Isaac Saul. Today, we are doing a special kind of emergency pop-up newsletter and podcast because of the strikes in Iran by Israel that happened overnight. We were planning today to release the debut edition from our new editor-in-large, Camille Foster, but given the significance of this news and I think the timeliness necessary to report it out, we kind of pivoted this morning
Starting point is 00:02:17 and felt like we had to cover what was happening in Iran. So we're gonna do that today. This is a little bit of an abbreviated edition. It's gonna mostly be the The story straight out of Iran So I have some quick hits and then we'll jump right into the intro and the left and the right and some takes from abroad And then my take and that'll basically make up the entire podcast I'm here today with Will K back our senior, who's going to split the duties on the podcast.
Starting point is 00:02:45 So I'm going to pass it over to him to start and break down the story and I'll be back for my take. Thanks, Isaac. All right, before we get into today's main story, let's talk through a few quick hits. Number one, the Secret Service forcibly removed and temporarily detained Senator Alex Padilla, a Democrat from California, after he attempted to question
Starting point is 00:03:12 Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem during a press conference on the agency's activities in Los Angeles. Noem said she and Padilla later met privately. Number two, Indian authorities confirmed that one man, a British national, survived Thursday's Air India crash in India. All other passengers and crew were killed.
Starting point is 00:03:32 Number three, a federal appeals court temporarily paused a district judge's ruling that President Donald Trump must return control of the National Guard to California Governor Gavin Newsom. The district court's ruling was set to go into effect on Friday before the pause. Number four, the House of Representatives voted 214 to 212 to pass a bill cutting $9.4 billion in federal spending, including $8.3 billion previously allocated to the U.S. Agency for International Development and $1.1 billion to the Corporation for Public
Starting point is 00:04:05 Broadcasting. The bill now requires a simple majority to pass the Senate. Number five, the Department of Homeland Security officially ended the legal status of hundreds of thousands of migrants from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela, who had come to the United States under a Biden-era immigration parole program. Iran, aimed at decimating Iran's nuclear program in hopes of preventing the country from building a nuclear bomb. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu calling it Operation Rising Lion. And if not stopped, Iran could produce a nuclear weapon in a very short time. It could be a year, it could be within a few months, less than a year. This is a clear and present danger to Israel's very survival.
Starting point is 00:05:10 Early Friday morning, around 3.30 a.m. local time in Tehran, Israel launched a series of coordinated attacks against Iran, targeting military bases, top generals, and nuclear enrichment facilities. Over 200 Israeli aircraft took part in the strikes on over 100 different targets. And according to senior Iranian officials, at least six military bases around the capital of Tehran were attacked, along with residential homes in military compounds, defense and industrial compounds, radar facilities, and an oil refinery. Israel also targeted key components of Iran's nuclear program, striking Iran's main enrichment facility and a nuclear research center, along with two military bases and an airport in the country's
Starting point is 00:05:50 northwest. The operation represents the largest single-day attack on Iran since the 1980s. Israel targeted several nuclear scientists and killed at least six in the attack, along with at least 20 senior Iranian commanders and four top generals. Israel called the attack preemptive because of Iran's nuclear capabilities, saying their intelligence indicated Iran had enough material to assemble 15 nuclear bombs. Moments ago, Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, a targeted military operation to roll back the Iranian threat to Israel's very survival, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced in a statement. Quote, this operation will continue for as many days as it takes, end quote.
Starting point is 00:06:34 Israeli military officials said that they had planned out 14 days of operations and expect the strikes to continue for several more days at minimum. Reports indicate that the operation has been planned for eight months. Mossad, Israel's intelligence service, has operatives on the ground in Iran conducting clandestine operations, including setting up a drone base within Iran near Tehran and deploying precision-guided weapons in open areas near Ahran surface-to-air missile system sites. Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed severe punishment in response
Starting point is 00:07:05 to the attack, and Iran has already launched over 100 retaliatory drone strikes against Israel. The Israeli Defense Force said it has been intercepting drones over Syrian, Saudi Arabian, and Jordanian airspace, and Jordan also stated that it has intercepted Iranian drones. Meanwhile, Hezbollah, an Iran-backed militant group in Lebanon, affirmed its allegiance with Iran, but announced it would not initiate attacks against Israel. The extent of the United States' knowledge or participation in the attack is unclear. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the US was, quote, not involved in the strikes and that, quote, Israel took unilateral action
Starting point is 00:07:42 against Iran. However, the US partially evacuated its embassy in Iraq yesterday afternoon, with some reports indicating that the US expected an imminent Israeli attack. Furthermore, President Donald Trump said he was aware of the military operation beforehand and later expressed support for Israel's strike. Quote, The United States makes the best and most lethal military equipment anywhere in the world by far. And that Israel has a lot of it with much more to come. And they know how to use it, the president said in a post on truth social quote, Iran must make a deal before there's nothing left and save what was once known as the Iranian Empire. No more death, no more destruction, just do it before it's too late." Several international leaders called for de-escalation in the aftermath. This was a unilateral action by Israel, so I think it is crucial for many allies, including the United States, to work as we speak to de-escalate, said NATO Secretary General Mark Ruda. Additionally, representatives for Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Japan all condemned Israel's attack.
Starting point is 00:08:46 The situation is ongoing and further updates are expected throughout the day and weekend. But in today's special edition, we'll cover what the left, right, and international writers are saying about Israel's attack on Iran. Then, Isaac gives his take. We'll be right back after this quick break. I'm Joshua Jackson, and I'm returning for the Audible original series, Oracle Season 3, Murder at the Grandview. Six forty-somethings took a boat out a few days ago.
Starting point is 00:09:26 One of them was found dead. The hotel, the island, something wasn't right about it. Psychic agent Nate Russo is back on the case, and you know when Nate's killer instincts are required, anything's possible. This world's gonna eat you alive. Listen to Oracle, season three, murder at the Grandview, now on Audible. one donated promise. Bombas makes socks, underwear, slippers, slides and t-shirts all designed to feel good and do good.
Starting point is 00:10:06 Since we're new in Canada, all new customers enjoy 20% off your first purchase. Just visit bombas.ca. That's B-O-M-B-A-S. dot C-A and use code music to start doing good and feeling even better. Here's what the left is saying. The left is mixed on the strikes, with many calling it a lawless escalation by Netanyahu. Others say Israel gradually weakened Iran to the point where it could conduct such an attack. In common dreams, Juan Cole said Trump must condemn, not support, this brazen and unlawful
Starting point is 00:10:41 military campaign. Netanyahu launched the strikes to thwart the peace negotiations being conducted with Iran by President Donald J. Trump's administration via Oman, striking a day before the next talks were scheduled to take place. Trump had signaled repeatedly that he did not want the Israelis to attack, but Netanyahu appears to hold the taco Trump always chickens out theory of the president's behavior.
Starting point is 00:11:04 He pointedly thanked Trump in his address to the nation, clearly hoping that Iran might take some action against America in response. And so draw Trump into a war he clearly does not want. Cole wrote. Ironically, Trump himself paved the way to this war by trashing the 2015 nuclear program concluded by the UN Security Council with Iran, which effectively blocked Iran from ever militarizing its program. Netanyahu was likely to some extent wagging the dog with this attack, since his governmental coalition is in danger of falling apart over the issue
Starting point is 00:11:36 of the conscription of ultra-Orthodox Jews, most of whom support Netanyahu, Cole said. A war with Iran is therefore Netanyahu's double attempt to thwart the outbreak of peace between Iran and the U.S. and to thwart attempts to bring his government down domestically through a vote of no confidence. It is, however, unlikely that Israeli attacks can do more than set back Iran's uranium enrichment program, since the country has a big establishment by now of nuclear scientists and it has its own uranium, and the know-how it has built up cannot likely be extinguished. In the Atlantic Graham Wood wrote about why Israel struck now. Israel has been contemplating
Starting point is 00:12:14 an attack like this for two decades. Why was last night different from every other night? Israel claims that Iran was in a late-stage rush to assemble a nuclear weapon. Netanyahu said they had nine atomic bombs. That claim is nearly unverifiable, but it's worth noting general trends that may have made Iran's decision to go imminently nuclear more likely, Wood said. For at least two decades, the decision to go nuclear has been political rather than technical. Iran had the know-how. Its leaders just needed to decide that a nuclear bomb was worth the risk. And recently, the calculation around that decision has shifted. Why then did Iran not make a mad rush
Starting point is 00:12:51 for a nuclear weapon? Because it already had the immunity that a nuclear weapon could confer. And because as long as it didn't have a nuclear weapon, it could use its threat of getting a bomb to extract concessions from America and its allies, Wood wrote. Circumstances have changed, and the country that changed them is Israel. It did so by piercing that immunity repeatedly, by attacking Iranian soldiers abroad, by humiliating and killing Iran's proxies, and most of all by attacking it openly on its own hitherto sacrosanct territory. The axis of resistance wobbled, and by failing to do anything to steady it, Iran largely lost its deterrent power. Now onto what the right is saying. The right is also mixed on the attack, though many commend
Starting point is 00:13:43 Israel for taking preemptive action to defend itself. Others express concern that the U.S. will be pulled into another Middle East war. The New York Post editorial board wrote, Israel is serving the entire world, taking huge risks to stop Iran from going nuclear. Good for Israel, acting as it has before the 1967 war, the takedown of Saddam Hussein's nuclear program in 1981, and the strikes on Syria in 2007, to preempt a clear existential threat to its continued existence, the board said. No serious player on the world stage can honestly deny that Tehran had been on its final run gaining nuclear weapons. And while some will quibble about whether the regime
Starting point is 00:14:22 intended to use nukes to destroy, quote, quote the little Satan as it has now called Israel for five decades Jerusalem could hardly afford to take that chance Toronto hit back hard and the IDF can't be remotely confident. It will intercept every drone and missile as it has the last two times Israel must expect to hurt hoping that the pain is survivable and simply the necessary price for fending off extinction. The rest of the Middle East, indeed the world, gets to free ride on Israel's bold self-defense. The IDF is moving to take out what could have been a menace to everyone else, including those foolish enough to think Iran is an ally, the board wrote. Iran's strategy failed. We can only pray that Israel's strikes do everything they need to." In the American conservative,
Starting point is 00:15:05 Jude Russo argued, this is not our war. It's difficult to escape the sense that it didn't have to be this way. The US-Iran dealmaking process had shown promise at various points, and it remains obscure what changed between then and now, Russo said. What will happen next? I doubt that anyone at this point will openly say that the US should commit to an increased troop presence in the Middle East to support Israeli operations against the Islamic Republic. Donald Trump, in particular, knows that a fresh ground war is political prison. Note, we'll start with air support and maybe some bunker busters because for all its vaunted military industrial base, somehow Israel just can't make a bunker buster
Starting point is 00:15:45 big enough to get those reactors. And if we were to pursue regime change, who would replace the Ayatollahs? The Shah, whose family's police state was so hated that Khamenei seemed preferable? The Mojahedin Organization of Iran's bizarre mix of Islamist and Marxism? A miraculous secular liberal democracy with Western-style human rights norms? None of those options seem both likely and desirable. Each would demand American support up to and including direct military intervention, Russo wrote. While the course we are on staves off the already distant prospect of Iranian hegemony,
Starting point is 00:16:20 it will egg on Islamic terrorism and tempt hostile action on sea lanes as Iran and its proxies seek leverage against their enemies. If the conflict is inevitable, the American message must be clear. This is not our war. And finally, here's what writers abroad are saying. Some writers say Israel rightly seized an opportunity to attack a weakened adversary. Others criticize Israel and the US for further destabilizing the Middle East. In the Jerusalem Post, Yaakov Katz said Israel had a window of opportunity to attack Iran and was right to use it.
Starting point is 00:17:06 From a military perspective, there is little question that Israel was right to strike Iran's nuclear facilities. It took advantage of a unique window of opportunity that stemmed from three primary factors. The first was the degradation of Iran's regional proxies. For years, when the issue of attacking Iran would come up around the cabinet table, one of the main arguments against it was the retaliation Israel would face from Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and Iranian forces in Syria. That concern is no longer what it once was, Katz wrote. The second factor was operational capability, whether Israel can actually pull off such a strike. Penetrating fortified sites remains a challenge, but there is reason to believe Israel has the means now.
Starting point is 00:17:50 The third factor was change in Washington. While President Donald Trump said he preferred a diplomatic deal with Iran, negotiations have stalled. We now know that Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu were coordinated and that the comments coming out of Washington that a deal might still be possible were part of a planned ruse to put Iranians to sleep, Katz said. The window of opportunity needed to be used since it was not going to remain open indefinitely. The more time passes, the more Iran will rebuild its air defenses, its proxies, and its offensive capabilities. In Al Jazeera, Belen Fernandez asked, as Israel strikes Iran, what happened to America first? Israel, of course, thrives on perpetual
Starting point is 00:18:33 upheaval and mass killing, all while portraying itself as the victim of the folks it is slaughtering and otherwise antagonizing. True to form, the Israelis have now cast Iran as the aggressor, with the country's non-existent nuclear weapons allegedly posing a threat to Israel's very survival, Fernandez wrote. Unlike Iran, Israel does happen to possess nuclear weapons, which just renders the whole situation all the more flammable. But for Netanyahu, at least, keeping the region in flames is a means of saving his own skin
Starting point is 00:19:03 from domestic opposition and embroilment in various corruption charges. By launching the so-called preemptive strike on Iran then, Israel has effectively preempted the prospect of any sort of peaceful solution to the issue, of whether or not the Iranians should be permitted to pursue a civilian nuclear enrichment program, Fernandez said. And yet, the at least tacit endorsement extended by Trump for today's attacks on Iran would seem to call into question American priorities and raise the possibility that the U.S. is instead putting Israel first. Now I'll pass it back to Isaac for his take. We'll be right back after this quick break. Did you know that socks are one of the most requested clothing items by organizations
Starting point is 00:19:56 addressing homelessness? It's true. And it's also why we started Bombas. Every time you buy, well, anything from Bombas, an essential item is donated to someone facing homelessness. That's Bombas's one essential item is donated to someone facing homelessness. That's Bombas' one-purchased, one-donated promise. Bombas makes socks, underwear, slippers, slides, and t-shirts all designed to feel good and do good.
Starting point is 00:20:13 Since we're new in Canada, all new customers enjoy 20% off your first purchase. Just visit bombas.ca. That's B-O-M-B-A-S dot C-A. And use code MUSIC to start doing good and feeling even better. I'm Joshua Jackson, and I'm returning for the Audible Original Series, Oracle Season 3. music to start doing good and feeling even better. case and you know when Nate's killer instincts are required anything's possible. This world is going to eat you alive. Listen to Oracle Season 3, Murder at the Grandview, now on Audible. All right, that is it for the left and the right are saying and some views from Israel and elsewhere in the Middle East, which brings us to my take.
Starting point is 00:21:09 So this story is moving quickly and there's a ton of ground to cover and I'm going to cover the most ground I can by just sharing 14 thoughts on what we know so far. Number one, a direct conflict with Iran that starts with Israel wiping out their nuclear capabilities has been a theoretical proposition for a long time. A direct conflict with Iran that starts with Israel wiping out their nuclear capabilities has been a theoretical proposition for a long time. Now it is no longer theoretical. For obvious reasons, this is a harrowing moment. Israel has clearly made the decision that now is the time to fight the big fight, and Netanyahu
Starting point is 00:21:40 is focused on winning it quickly and decisively. But there are a lot of moving pieces, and every possible outcome is in play. Iran could be far weaker than we think, and Israel may bowl them over and open up the door to a new regime in a matter of weeks. Iran could launch an effective counterattack and put Israeli citizens at risk. Alternatively, Iran could focus instead on attacking US targets in the region to try to drag us into the war and then drag their own allies in, bringing about the long-feared, protracted, all-out regional conflict or global war.
Starting point is 00:22:12 What will Saudi Arabia do? What about Turkey or the UAE or Europe? What will China do? What will Russia do? And what will we do? The ground is uncertain and we're about to live through history. Number two, a cascade of diplomatic failures spanning multiple administrations in multiple countries have all led up to this moment. Let's start with Trump. His decision to pull out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA or Iran nuclear deal and failure to negotiate a new
Starting point is 00:22:42 nuclear deal has positioned the United States on the outside looking in, taking away any leverage we could have had. But Biden and Obama both deserve some blame too. Obama negotiated the JCPOA, which gave the U.S. some leverage but had shortcomings that may not have stopped Iran from continuing to build a bomb. Biden wasn't able to negotiate a new deal either, and of course, nobody deserves more blame than Iran itself. The country's leadership is genuinely authoritarian. That word gets thrown around so much it has lost meaning, but in this case applies. And Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has steadfastly refused to back
Starting point is 00:23:17 off promises to wipe Israel off the face of the planet, which makes the situation a little more difficult to solve. At the same time, the so-called Islamic Republic has delivered poor living conditions and limited freedom to its own people. Credible intelligence has consistently suggested that Iran continues to pursue a nuclear bomb while plotting other military operations against Israel, and the obvious implication of a despotic regime that wants to annihilate Israel pursuing a nuclear bomb makes the motivation for the recent attack as clear as day. regime that wants to annihilate Israel pursuing a nuclear bomb makes the motivation for the recent
Starting point is 00:23:45 attack as clear as day. Number three, you all know how I feel about Israel's actions in Gaza, but this is not the same story. This is a different front and a different war and one where the existential threat to Israel is more obvious and intractable. Israel does not have a responsibility in Iran the same way it does in Gaza. As reductive and brutal as this is to say, this is probably the war that Israel should have been fighting this whole time against an enemy that is upstream of so much of the violence, division, hatred, and instability in the region. Of course, Israel's claim to higher moral authority is not at all straightforward. The decision to conduct this attack was made by a corrupt and failed leader clinging to power, who is, in my view, currently committing
Starting point is 00:24:28 an ethnic cleansing in Gaza. So, it's understandably hard for a lot of people to empathize with Netanyahu or Israel right now. But it's easy to ask, what would you do? What would you do if a nation developing nuclear weapons was promising to wipe you off the face of the planet and you watched decades of diplomatic efforts fail to resolve the issue. Iran had a literal doomsday clock in its capital, counting down the days to Israel's destruction. Just this week, Iran said it had billed and would activate a third nuclear enrichment facility, just hours after a watchdog agency censured Iran for failing to comply with non-proliferation obligations.
Starting point is 00:25:05 President Trump gave Iran 60 days to make a deal, and it didn't. Again, Iran is primarily responsible for forcing this issue. 4. The obvious counterpoint to all of this is my statement a few weeks ago. Iran has been weeks away from a bomb for most of my lifetime, and I can hardly stop myself from chuckling when I hear that claim again now in 2025. We've seen dramatic intelligence claims before, most infamously the false certainty around Iraq's WMD program in 2003, and this historical context should make us skeptical about Iran's nuclear capabilities. How credible is the latest intelligence really and how much are the reports about Iran's
Starting point is 00:25:44 nuclear capabilities really just a pretext for war? The US says it has not changed its assessment that despite its enrichment efforts Iran has not begun to transform enriched uranium into an actual nuclear weapon Sitting as we are outside the immediate sphere of people with firsthand access that intelligence makes it hard to know the truth Number five what does this mean for Trump? Days ago, the president was clearly telling Israel not to instigate Iran. He has now praised the attack and affirm the United States material support. Israeli sources claim his public opposition to a strike was a disinformation campaign
Starting point is 00:26:18 to intentionally mislead Iran into thinking a strike wasn't coming. Trump now says he knew this was going to happen, but his track record of doubling back on his statements makes accepting this story at face value very difficult. Before, during, and after the election, Trump has promised over and over to reduce the American presence in the Middle East, and yet the odds we get dragged into a new war just increase tenfold. Trump promised to end the war in Ukraine after 24 hours, and it is now more protracted than ever. Trump promised to end the war in Gaza before even getting
Starting point is 00:26:50 to the White House, and his position is now an open plan for ethnic cleansing. Trump has pursued the ultimate trillion dollar investment nuclear deal with Iran, but couldn't land the plane, and Iran has now pulled out of negotiations, obviously. Netanyahu conducted this strike either with or without Trump's approval and neither option reflects well on the president of peace who just got done touring the Middle East promising to usher in an era of tranquility. Number six, not to be crass but is Iran screwed? We know the regime credibly believed it faced an existential threat before this attack.
Starting point is 00:27:25 It is loathed by many Iranians. It is weakened in the region. It has not mustered anything close to a consequential response so far, and it did not seem at all prepared for this attack. Hezbollah said it won't respond to the attack, a genuinely shocking revelation for a fighting force Iran has been grooming for just this moment. And on top of that, Syria, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan have all allowed Israel to intercept Iranian rockets
Starting point is 00:27:49 in their airspace, and Jordan has gone as far as to intercept some on its own. Who are Iran's allies that are willing to fight this war? What leverage does it currently have? How does it get out from under these attacks? I honestly don't know. This might really be the beginning of the end of this regime. 7. In my view, this is the best possible realistic outcome. Iran's response proves completely
Starting point is 00:28:13 inadequate and it becomes apparent quickly that they have been overwhelmed by Israeli military ingenuity and expertise. The regime falls or all of its top leaders are killed. The Iranian people take the opportunity to supplant them with a new, more moderate, less interested in killing Jews regime that actually decides to join the modern world and advance economic opportunity and freedom for its people, a path it seemed poised to take decades ago. The millions of Iranians trapped under this regime undertake a genuine revolution to finally dispel the regressive Islamic Revolution of 1979, retake the country and remake it in their image. A new, moderate government
Starting point is 00:28:51 in Iran allows Israel to draw its Arab partners closer without fear of existential reprisal, and the cascading effects open up opportunities for new leadership in Gaza and new relations with Lebanon, all of which bring us a few steps closer toward long-term peace. Number eight, here's what I think is the worst possible realistic outcome. Iran's response is stronger than we expect and it manages to seriously harm the Israeli military, kill Israeli civilians, and draw in members of the intergovernmental organization BRICS to begin attacking both Israeli and US targets.
Starting point is 00:29:26 President Trump decides he must respond to these attacks and joins Israel in the fight. Global powers, perhaps Russia or China, recognize the significance of the power centers in this region changing and come to a round side, either in the form of kinetic or cyber warfare against the US and its allies. This conflict spills into a global war that causes massive spikes in the price of energy, food and goods, creates deadly knock-on effects that will require decades to recover from,
Starting point is 00:29:52 and substantially increases the likelihood of a nuclear conflict. Number nine, if the best case scenario happens, I'll gladly tip my hat to one of my least favorite leaders in the world right now, Prime Minister Netanyahu, and excitedly cheer on the emergence of new dynamics in the region. If the worst case scenario happens, we'll have much, much bigger problems than anything I have to say. The most likely outcome is probably somewhere between the two, and my initial reaction is to be much
Starting point is 00:30:18 more concerned about the possible risks than excited about the potential benefits. 10. I will never be comfortable with the assassination of scientists and Israel's decision to target and kill the top nuclear scientists in Iran again is really hard for me to swallow, even if the rationale is clear. Images from Tehran of attacks in the middle of residential neighborhoods appear to be war crimes and should be described as such. Civilians have already died, as they have in Gaza, Lebanon, and Yemen, and in wars all across the globe, we can expect a lot of suffering. This reality cannot be ignored or swept under the rug. Israel killed the person who is literally leading the nuclear negotiations with the United States. Just as frightening is what this means for
Starting point is 00:31:02 where this is headed. Crossing this Rubicon makes every Israeli citizen fair game. If Israel can justify killing innocent Iranians as collateral damage in its targeting of scientists, then Iran is within its right to kill Israeli citizens while attempting to kill Israeli officials or leaders. Israel just opened that genie's bottle, and we now have to deal with the repercussions. Number 11. At the same time, it's also hard not to marvel at the brilliance of the Israeli military
Starting point is 00:31:27 and the way this opening strike was conducted. Iran has been operating with a kind of immunity from direct strikes for years, but the events of the last few months made its aura of untouchability less potent. Iran's proxies are weakened, its credible denials of being near a bomb are less convincing.
Starting point is 00:31:44 Even its willingness to retaliate to a direct strike has been tested. So, Mossad planted agents on the ground who have been conducting clandestine preparations for months, and the Israeli intelligence service was able to set up explosives and drones near Iran's ballistic missile launch sites and completely cripple its ability to launch retaliatory strikes against Israel. It acted lethally on intelligence about the locations of top scientists and generals. It leveled nuclear facilities, it crippled key airfields and military bases. It did all this in a manner of hours, and so far, the operation seems to be going exactly according to plan. 12. Despite everything I've said above, I still think it is very much worth asking about Netanyahu's
Starting point is 00:32:23 motivations here outside the obvious. Were Iran and Trump inching closer to a deal that Israel did not want? How close is Netanyahu's governing coalition to falling apart? How desperate is he to conduct a war that will help keep his right-wing allies in the Knesset happy? Number 13. While recording the Tangle podcast with Kamil and Ari yesterday, I expressed deep consternation at Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard's recent video, Warning About Nuclear War. It felt to me like she knew something, and I wondered aloud on the podcast what exactly that was. A few weeks ago, I expressed similar concern over Tucker Carlson's warning that this war was coming. It felt like he knew something, and I wondered what it was.
Starting point is 00:33:05 I think it's pretty obvious these plans were percolating in certain circles. Now we'll find out the next part. How bad will it get? Carlson, for example, predicted that a war with Iran would cause thousands of Americans to be killed in the first week, collapse our economy, spike gasoline to $30 a gallon, and ignite a world war that the United States would lose. I think contrasting predictions like this with the reality of what happens next will be important and worthwhile throughout the coming weeks. 14. Again, I don't know what will happen. And despite understanding the position Israel is in, and in many ways the necessity that motivated it to conduct these strikes, we have to extend that understanding to the Iranian people.
Starting point is 00:33:45 Iran is a nation of 90 million civilians that will be reduced in the Western media to the actions of the regime whose thumb it lives under. We must remember the people there, the millions of normal people who will want to be free from this regime, the random kids roaming the streets, the workers and students and families, and the devastation that war brings. My sincere prayer is for a quick end to these targeted attacks and hopefully new paths for peace throughout the region. I'm not optimistic, but I'm hopeful. All right. That is it for my 14 thoughts today. I'm going to send it back to Will for the rest of the pod and I'll see you guys on Sunday. Have a good one. Peace.
Starting point is 00:34:21 I'll see you guys on Sunday. Have a good one. Peace. All right, that is it for today's special Friday edition on Israel Strikes on Iran. We will be back on Monday with more coverage of the story as well as plenty of the other news stories happening this week and what's sure to come this weekend. Until then, have a nice weekend
Starting point is 00:34:40 and we'll talk to you in a few days. Thank you for listening to this Tangle Media production. Our executive editor and founder is me, Isaac Saul, and our executive producer is John Law. Today's episode was edited and engineered by John Law. Our editorial staff is led by managing editor Ari Weitzman with senior editor Will K. Back and associate editors Hunter Kaspersen, Audrey Moorhead, Bailey Sall, Lindsay Knuth, and Kendall White. Music for the podcast was produced by John Law. To learn more about Tangle and to sign up for a membership, please visit our website at reedtangle.com. I'm Joshua Jackson and I'm returning for the audible original series Oracle season 3 murder
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