Tangle - SPECIAL EDITION: 24 thoughts on Joe Biden dropping out.

Episode Date: July 22, 2024

Joe Biden. On Sunday, President Joe Biden announced he is dropping his reelection campaign and endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris to replace him on the ticket. Biden, until now the presumptive Democratic nominee, leaves the race later in the election cycle than any sitting president in U.S. history. His exit sets the stage for an intense rush to unite the Democratic Party around a new candidate before the August nominating convention in Chicago. You can read today's podcast⁠ ⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠, our “Under the Radar” story ⁠here and today’s “Have a nice day” story ⁠here⁠.Imagine this:There are over 100,000 people on this mailing list. If every person got one friend to sign up for Tangle, we could double our readership overnight. We have made it incredibly easy. All you have to do is click the button below and you'll get a pre-drafted email pitch — then you just type in a few friends or family member's email addresses and click send. Give it a shot!You can catch our trailer for the Tangle Live event at City Winery NYC. Full video coming soon!Check out Episode 5 of our podcast series, The Undecideds. Please give us a 5-star rating and leave a comment!Today’s clickables: A clarification (0:43), Quick hits (1:29), Today’s story (4:12) Left’s take (8:11), Right’s take (11:40), Isaac’s take (15:18), Under the Radar (31:42), Numbers (32:45), Have a nice day (33:40)You can subscribe to Tangle by clicking here or drop something in our tip jar by clicking here. Take the survey: What do you think of Biden’s decision to drop out, and whom should Democrats nominate? Let us know!Our podcast is written by Isaac Saul and edited and engineered by Jon Lall. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75. Our newsletter is edited by Managing Editor Ari Weitzman, Will Kaback, Bailey Saul, Sean Brady, and produced in conjunction with Tangle’s social media manager Magdalena Bokowa, who also created our logo. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Oh, that coffee smells good. Can you pass me the sugar when you're finished? Whoa, whoa, whoa, what are you doing? That's salt, not sugar. Let's get you another coffee. Feeling distracted? You're not alone. Many Canadians are finding it hard to focus

with mortgage payments on their minds. If you're struggling with your payments, speak to your bank. The earlier they understand your situation, the more options and relief measures could be available to you. Learn more at canada.ca slash it pays to know. A message from the Government of Canada.

From Searchlight Pictures comes A Real Pain, one of the most moving and funny films of the year. Written and directed by Oscar-nominated Jesse Eisenberg and starring Eisenberg and Emmy Award winner Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain is a comedy about mismatched cousins who reunite for a tour through Poland to honor their beloved grandmother. The adventure takes a turn when the pair's old tensions resurface against the backdrop of their family history. A Real Pain was one of the

buzziest titles at Sundance Film Festival this year, garnering rave reviews and acclaim from both critics and audiences alike. See A Real Pain only in theaters November 15th. Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural

who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history,

and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. From executive producer Isaac Saul, this is Tangle. Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening, and welcome to the Tangle Podcast, a place where you get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking, and a little bit of my take.

I'm your host, Isaac Saul, and on today's episode, we're going to be talking about what else? President Joe Biden dropping out of the 2024 presidential race. No surprises there. It is Monday, July 22nd. Before we jump in, I want to give a quick heads up. We publish on Friday a deep dive on the Secret Service in our newsletter. It was a pretty popular edition. It is behind a paywall for members only. So if you are a podcast listener who also gets the newsletter for free, you'll have to subscribe to the paid editions of the newsletter to get that. But it is up on our website right now. If you go, you'll see a deep dive on the Secret Service. I highly recommend it. We also dove in, of course, to the assassination

attempt of former President Trump, some of the implications around that. All right, with that out of the way, I'm going to pass it over to John for the pod, and I'll be back for my take. Thanks, Isaac. It has been a wild month. I hope everybody had a great weekend. Here are your quick hits for today. First up, Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheadle is testifying this morning before the House Oversight Committee on the assassination attempt of former President Donald Trump and reports that his request for more personnel was declined. Number two, Representative Sheila Jackson Lee, the Democrat from Texas, died over the weekend following a battle with pancreatic cancer.

Number three, Russia convicted U.S. journalist Evan Gershkovich of the Wall Street Journal of espionage and sentenced him to 16 years in prison. Number four, after a drone attack by Houthis in Tel Aviv on Friday, Israel struck a suspected Houthi military base in Yemen on Sunday, killing six people. Shortly after, Israel said it intercepted a surface-to-surface missile from Yemen headed toward the southern Israel city of Eilat. Separately, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu lands in the U.S. today for a scheduled meeting with President Biden tomorrow. At number five, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said at least two people in the United States have died and 28 have been hospitalized in connection with a listeria outbreak across the Midwest and Northeast connected to meat sliced at deli counters. President Biden has just announced that he is ending his reelection bid. Just moments ago, the president tweeted out, It has been the greatest honor of my life to serve as your president.

While it has been my intention to seek reelection, I believe it is in the best interest of my party and the country for me to stand down and to focus solely on fulfilling my duties as president for the remainder of my party and the country for me to stand down and to focus solely on fulfilling my duties as president for the remainder of my term. It hasn't even been 24 hours since President Biden made that decision that no sitting president has ever made, dropping out of the race this close to election day with less than a month to go until the DNC. And in an open convention, the delegates would be the true deciders. This is the first time in more than five decades where the delegates are all free to vote as they choose and have the

final say. It was already the most unusual race in American history. Between two former presidents, one a convicted felon who tried to overturn an election he lost, then survived an assassination attempt. And now Biden is the first incumbent since Lyndon Johnson 56 years ago to give up chance for a second term. President Biden and dozens of Democratic lawmakers have endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris. She's the front runner for the nomination. But with the convention less than a month away, a fight for the nomination is still possible. On Sunday, President Joe Biden announced he is dropping his re-election campaign and endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris to replace him on the ticket.

Biden, until now the presumptive Democratic nominee, leaves the race later in the election cycle than any sitting president in U.S. history. His exit sets the stage for an intense rush to unite the Democratic Party around a new candidate before the August nominating convention in Chicago. The president announced his decision in a letter posted on X, formerly Twitter, writing, While it has been my intention to seek re-election, I believe it is in the best interest of my party and the country for me to stand down and focus entirely on fulfilling my duties as president for the remainder of my term. Biden also said he planned to address the nation later this week to discuss the decision. Roughly 30 minutes later, he posted again,

this time offering his full support and endorsement of Harris as the Democratic nominee. Harris released her own statement shortly after Biden, thanking the president for his extraordinary leadership as president of the United States and for his decades of service to our country. She also declared her intention to seek and win the nomination, prompting a slew of endorsements from prominent Democrats such as Governor Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, Representative Pramila Jayapal from Washington, Representative Jim Clyburn from South Carolina, and Senator Mark Kelly from Arizona, as well as former President Bill Clinton, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and many others. Notably, though, former President Bill Clinton, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton,

and many others. Notably, though, former President Barack Obama, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries have not endorsed Harris. Democrats do not have formal rules for transferring delegates from one candidate to another, but DNC Chair Jamie Harrison said the party will undertake a transparent and orderly process in the coming days to determine Biden's replacement. Approximately 4,700 delegates will attend the Democratic National Convention in five weeks, 3,748 of whom are pledged to Joe Biden. Pledged delegates are awarded according to the results of the presidential primaries, but since Biden is no longer seeking the nomination, they are now free to support whomever they choose. Biden's campaign has $96 million in campaign funds as of June, but campaign finance laws don't clarify how or whether that money can be transferred to another candidate at this point in the campaign. Some experts have suggested that Harris can assume

control of the funds as long as she remains on the Democratic ticket. But other election lawyers have argued that any such transfer could be blocked in court. Meanwhile, news of Biden's exit prompted the single biggest day for online Democratic contributions since the 2020 election, with over $50 million raised. Former President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, criticized Biden and the Democratic Party shortly after the decision was announced. Crooked Joe Biden was not fit to run for president and is certainly not fit to serve, and never was, Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social. Later in the day, Trump said the people around him lied to America about his complete and total mental, physical, and cognitive demise. total mental, physical, and cognitive demise. Biden's decision ends nearly a month of uncertainty about his candidacy following his widely criticized performance in the first presidential debate on June 27th. In the weeks following the debate, a chorus of elected Democrats publicly

called on him to end his campaign. The effort reached a fever pitch over the weekend while the president was recovering from COVID at his home in Rehoboth Beach, Delaware. In Dropping Out, Biden becomes the seventh U.S. president not to run for a second elected term, not including Theodore Roosevelt, who did not run for re-election after his first elected term, but ran as a third-party candidate in a later election. Today, we'll explore reactions to the news of Biden's exit from the left and the right, and then Isaac's take. We'll be right back after this quick commercial break. From Searchlight Pictures comes A Real Pain, one of the most moving and funny films of the year. Written and directed by Oscar-nominated Jesse Eisenberg and starring Eisenberg and Emmy Award

winner Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain is a comedy about mismatched cousins who reunite for a tour through Poland to honor their beloved grandmother. The adventure takes a turn when the pair's old tensions resurface against the backdrop of their family history. A Real Pain was one of the buzziest titles at Sundance Film Festival this year, garnering rave reviews and acclaim from both critics and audiences alike. See A Real Pain only in theaters November 15th. Oh, that coffee smells good. Can you pass me the sugar when you're finished? What are you doing? That's salt, not sugar. Let's get you another coffee. Feeling distracted? You're not alone. Many Canadians are finding it hard to focus with mortgage payments on their minds.

If you're struggling with your payments, speak to your bank. The earlier they understand your situation, the more options and relief measures could be available to you. Learn more at Canada.ca slash ItPaysToKnow. A message from the Government of Canada. All right, first let's start with what the left is saying. The left thinks Biden made the right decision to step aside in hopes Democrats can unify around a competitive candidate. Some called Biden's decision courageous and selfless. Others say Harris is best positioned to defeat Trump.

The Washington Post editorial board wrote, With Biden stepping aside, Democrats must now embrace an open process. After more than a half-century of admirable public service, relinquishing power wasn't easy. It required a push from the Democratic establishment, but also a measure of self-awareness that is too often absent from U.S. politics, the board said. Mr. Biden campaigned in 2020 as a bridge to the next generation of Democratic leaders. Passing the torch now, four years earlier than he had hoped, increases the odds that his party can hold the White House, but Democrats need to proceed carefully. An open process for picking Mr. Biden's replacement as Democratic nominee, as well as that person's running mate, risks becoming messy. It could draw attention to Democratic quarrels over issues that divide Democrats, such as Mr. Biden's policy in the

Middle East, the board wrote. Yet Mr. Biden's decision creates an opportunity for a reset, not only for his party, but also for U.S. politics generally, through a competitive nomination process among future national leaders. There is time for Democrats to scrutinize the contenders for the top of the ticket. In the Los Angeles Times, LZ Granderson said, Biden's decision to drop out is one of the most patriotic moments in a long life of service. Rarely is the decision not to seek re-election celebrated as honorable. Usually it's an indication of legislative disappointments or morality shortcomings, Granderson wrote.

This is particularly true when that person is as effective as Biden has been. To step out of the presidential election must feel like a gut punch, particularly given the risk of the Republican nominee becoming the president. He did not deserve to be beaten up in the press as badly as he has been by members of his own party. Had he stayed true to his promise to be a bridge candidate, that would not have happened, Granderson said. Biden's decision to remove himself from the race does not reflect on his administration's effectiveness. It doesn't cast a poor light on his career. What it does is better position the party and the country to avert the threat of a second Trump

administration. In the Daily Beast, David Rothkopf argued Kamala Harris must be the candidate. There are few challenges greater than running for president of the United States, but for the vice president, those challenges will be compounded by the fact that her situation is unprecedented. Yet, it is vital to recognize that the alternatives to Harris's smooth selection as nominee of the Democratic Party and her election as president of the United States are a disaster for the country, Rothkopf wrote. All of who have supported Biden, regardless of how they may feel about his decision not to run, can show their respect and appreciation for Biden by immediately doing all in their power to support the vice president. The contrast between the two campaigns should be dramatically heightened should Harris top the ticket. Clearly, Harris is much younger, the first

Gen X presidential candidate. She is a woman. She's the first African-American to serve as vice president and the first Asian-American. Her parents were immigrants, Rothkopf wrote. Her profile makes Harris the ideal nominee the Democrats could pick to challenge and defeat Trump. Her youth contrasts with the fact that he is elderly and has shown signs of mental deterioration. All right, that is it for what the left is saying, which brings us to what the right is saying. The right argues Biden should step down as president if he can't run for re-election. Some say the Democratic Party overruled the wishes of its primary voters. Others question whether any Democrat can beat Trump in this election. National Review's editor said Biden should resign the presidency.

should resign the presidency. Joe Biden did the right thing in ending the charade of asking the American public to believe that he was capable of serving another four years as president, the editors wrote. Biden should take the next logical step and resign the presidency. It's possible to imagine a president not being able to campaign but still being capable of carrying out his official duties, say, if he had a serious physical impairment. And it is even possible to imagine a president who could serve for another six months, but not another four and a half years. But such scenarios do not apply to Biden. Democrats wouldn't be in this fix if Biden and his family had taken full accounting of his age when they decided to run again last year, and if the White House, Democratic leaders, the press, and other various insiders hadn't

undertaken an effort to cover up Biden's state. They all knew what was going on, but figured if they didn't talk about it, somehow people wouldn't notice, the editor said. That cover-up was intended to deceive the American people, but its first victims were the Democratic primary voters, who were denied a real choice or a real say in their party's nominee. In The Federalist, Breonna Lyman wrote, Democrat oligarchs just overthrew their own voters. Democrats have spent years breathlessly claiming that democracy, in our constitutional republic, is at risk if former President Donald Trump wins.

But apparently the threshold for risks to democracy depends on the likelihood of winning. When it became clear Biden could not prevail over the consensus that he is unable to carry out the duties of a presidential candidate after his frightening debate performance, Democrats moved to subvert the will of their own voters to better their chances of retaining power. Biden gave no explanation for his monumental decision to withdraw from the race after profusely disputing reports that he would not remain the nominee, Lyman said. If Democrats aren't willing to invoke the 25th Amendment or get Biden to step down, then their justification is simply a flex of their political muscle. We can do whatever we want. In the Washington Examiner, Timothy P. Carney asked,

is a replacement really stronger against Trump than Biden would have been? Ditching Biden helps the Democrats' odds of keeping the White House in November. That's obvious, because otherwise, very few Democrats would have called on Biden to drop out. But how much does this move help Democrats, Carney wrote? Some polls suggest that a new Democrat would actually be the favorite over Trump in swing states. These polls show something, but they do not show that Harris, Whitmer, Shapiro, Alia are ahead of Trump. The reason? Harris, Whitmer, Shapiro, and every other Democrat have negatives that aren't picked up in a poll about a generic younger Democrat. Generic candidates always poll better than real candidates. Harris's weaknesses

are well known and too long to list here. And yet, if anyone else elbows Harris out of the way, that will introduce another negative, which is resentment from some of the base for pushing aside a Black woman who is next in line, Carney said. It's too early to predict where this race will be even a week from now, since we don't even know for sure who the Democratic nominee will be. But it's safe to dismiss any reading of the polls as suggesting that Trump is now the underdog. All right, let's head over to Isaac for his take. All right, everybody, that is it for what the left and the right are saying,

which brings us to my take. for what the left and the right are saying, which brings us to my take. So a normal edition of Tangle and a normal my take today just didn't do it justice. So instead, I just got down 24 thoughts on what just happened. And I hope you'll bear with me and find some value in them because there's so much here to unpack. It's honestly hard to wrap your head around. First and foremost, I just want to say President Biden made the right decision. I said this two weeks ago. I thought it was obvious that President Biden should drop out through several different lenses. If you're an American without a horse in the race, I don't believe he could competently be president for another four years.

Watch a video of President Biden from three years ago, and then watch the debate, and then tell me in four years you were confident he'd be okay. Nobody can do that, given that he just shouldn't be running for president. Now, if I put my Democratic strategist hat on, I'd want to pivot because Biden was likely to lose the election while the party has a bench of stronger candidates they could call on. If observing this as a GOP strategist, Biden was probably the candidate you wanted to face, but Harris would be a close second, and we're going to talk about that a little bit more in a second. Number two, it's always weird

watching political talking points just develop in real time. And immediately after Biden's announcement, I watched several prominent conservatives and Trump supporters start suggesting that Democratic elites were undermining democracy by forcing Biden out. Some called it a coup, arguing that primary voters elected Biden and now the party elites had kneecapped his re-election. I think this is really, really silly. Democrats didn't hold a competitive primary.

There was no real primary against Joe Biden. Secondly, voters pushed this, not Democratic elites. Biden was getting crushed in swing state polls, and the response to the debate from a large portion of voters was crystal clear. There was disappointment, there was shock and worry, swing state polls, and the response to the debate from a large portion of voters was crystal clear. There was disappointment, there was shock and worry, and focus groups' results were awful. Democratic House representatives in swing states were the first to break against Biden because of their constituents, and then governors and other prominent donors began to turn on him. Democratic elites actually did the opposite of leading a coup on Biden. They circled the wagons, and they held out until it was obvious there was no other choice.

They tried to stop this, and they failed. And then they came together to push Biden to step aside. Number three, the Democratic Party has done a lot of things in the last eight to ten years to distance itself from its grassroots voters and hurt the party's image. The work to ensure Hillary Clinton was the nominee in 2016 during what was supposed to be an open primary is near the top of the list. Forcing Biden out is genuinely close to the opposite. It is responsive to the polling, to focus groups, and to constituent demands at the grassroots level. Remember that only a couple dozen House Democrats and a handful

of Democratic senators even came out against Biden before he dropped out himself. Number four, the most Democratic way the Democratic Party could have handled the 2024 race was having an open and competitive primary last year, which they did not do. This is obviously common for a lot of incumbents. They don't get primaried. But the least democratic way they could have handled the 2024 election, once Biden won that primary, would be to force Biden out and coronate a hand-selected successor, say, someone like Governor Gavin Newsom of California. I actually think picking Harris, who was chosen by Biden,

who won in 2020 and won this primary, is a kind of middle ground between an open primary and the party elites picking someone. Harris was chosen by the man voters picked, and she was on the ticket voters voted for, knowing full well given Biden's age, she could one day replace him. I think it is both logical and fair for Biden to endorse her. Number five, this is entirely uncharted water. We've been saying that a lot recently, but it's genuinely true. Nobody can confidently say what is going to happen these next few weeks. With that in mind, it's worth remembering that someone else

aside from Harris may end up atop the ticket. I sincerely doubt it. Biden endorsed her. She probably has access to his money. There might be some legal challenges there. His campaign has effectively been transferred to her. I think this is a done deal, to be clear, even though the delegates at the DNC convention could try to go another direction. To me, the only question remaining is who her vice president is going to be. My money is on a white male with moderate left politics, probably popular from a swing state. That means Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear. All would be near the top of my list in likelihood. It will not be

Hillary Clinton, Michelle Obama, Mitt Romney, or Joe Biden, which I've seen a lot of people suggest on Twitter who are just kind of living in la-la land. Number six, by far the biggest scandal about Biden's decision, if there is one, is that it took so long. Biden's inner circle did their best to shield him from press scrutiny and concealed the decline that was observable to anyone with two ears and two eyes. The media obliged. Some of us have been questioning Biden's fitness for several years and taking a great deal of flack for it. He said he was going to be a bridge to the next generation and implied he'd be a one-term president. Now, he will be. But the pressure campaign required to get here is remarkable. Number seven, I'm fully supportive

of an open convention. Part of that is selfish. Tangle has press passes for the DNC. We applied for the RNC and the DNC, but we only got the latter. So I'm actually going to be there in person with John Law, our podcast and YouTube producer. And I'd be very interested to see how this all unravels in person if the process were totally open. But I also think an open convention is the most Democratic option, and I think it'd be good for this party to shake things

up and see what happens if they let their top talent fight it out. Number eight, how about Nancy Pelosi? Has any politician in the last few decades wielded more consistent power over the Democratic Party than her? She is going to get a lot of credit on and off the record for orchestrating Biden's ouster, and it's pretty incredible to consider what a force she still is even after stepping down from her House leadership position. Number nine, a lot of people are wondering aloud how Joe Biden is fit to serve but not fit to run for re-election? I think this is a very fair question. One simple answer is that Biden is not dropping out because he or his inner circles believes he isn't fit to serve, but they're dropping out because he isn't likely to win.

Another plausible answer is that his circle believes he is fit to serve right now but recognize that, given the huge toll the last three years have taken on him, four years from now, he probably won't be able to do his job. However, it is possible that Biden isn't fit to serve right now. I genuinely don't know which answer is right because I don't know enough about his medical history or day-to-day state to say, in part because his presidency has been shrouded in a lot of mystery. But based on how he has appeared in public, it's hard to imagine he is fully in control of his administration. Number 10.

Two of my least favorite groups in politics are the over-educated, self-righteous, ultra-progressive liberals who constantly try to police people's language and the proudly ignorant alt-right conservatives who embrace worm-brain conspiracies about literally everything. But I have to say, the new breed of Bitcoin tech-bro elites like David Sachs and even Elon Musk, who seemingly started following politics four months ago and now confidently think they know everything while making harebrained predictions like Michelle Obama is going to become the nominee nominee are quickly climbing up my list.

Number 11, I message about 50 to 60 friends and family on Sunday night with an open-ended question. How are you feeling about the prospect of Kamala Harris replacing Joe Biden? Of the Democratic voters who responded, the majority of whom live in Pennsylvania, by the way, where I grew up and live, the number one response was relieved. Here are some other common representative responses I got from this little focus group. Biden did the right thing. I'm worried Harris can't win. I wish it was an open convention. Nervous but hopeful. I have hope. I'm all in. Confident our odds are better with Harris or any Democrat. Needed something to re-energize the party. Notably

absent was anyone saying it was the wrong choice or expressing any anger about the decision. Number 12. Of the Republican voting friends and family who responded, these were the common responses I got. She's a hack. She's a fraud. She's better than Biden because of her age, but worse on policy. She's more progressive. Trump is going to mop the floor with her. Trump will crush her. Scarier on policy, but better because she isn't so old. I'm voting for Trump no matter what, so it doesn't matter. I'm curious to see her VP, but I am probably voting third party.

Number 13. I posed the same question on Twitter. There, the most common sentiment, at least as of this writing, was that Harris couldn't win, may not be the nominee, or shouldn't be the nominee. There was the same relief and support for Biden dropping out, but much more skepticism she can beat Trump. Number 14. I don't think Vice President Kamala Harris is a great politician. I've been very critical of her in the past. I think she fails to connect with voters en masse, hence her middling performance in the 2020 Democratic primary. However, people have gotten so negative on her that at this point, I actually think she might be underrated.

Memorable exceptions aside, she's a good speaker. She's a good debater. She's youthful compared to Biden or Trump. She was a prosecutor and she can deliver like one. She wrote a whole book on reducing crime, which remains one of the top issues coming into the 2024 election. If she and Trump debate, I think she's going to do a lot better than people seem to think. Number 15, small dollar donors raised over $27.5 million on ActBlue in the first five hours of Vice President Kamala Harris' presidential campaign, and over $50 million by this morning. That is a sign of incredibly strong grassroots support for Harris, or for Biden dropping out, or both. Number 16. Biden was a pretty big drag on the party in polling the last few months.

Consider a recent set of YouGov polls. In Arizona, Trump was up on Biden by seven points, but the Democratic Senate nominee was up on the Republican Senate nominee by eight points. In Michigan, Trump was up on Biden by two points, but the Democratic Senate nominee was up on the Republican Senate nominee by nine points. In Pennsylvania, Trump up on Biden by three points, but the Dem Senate nominee up on the Republican Senate nominee by 12. Goes on like this through all the swing states. It's worth stating plainly that Democrats are probably stronger in these swing states than Republicans, but Biden was just that bad for many voters compared to Trump. Harris will almost certainly close this gap. Number 17, Donald Trump is now the oldest nominee of any major party in U.S.

history. Get ready to hear that a lot from Democrats. Interestingly, in the last 30 years, there have been four instances where a Democrat running for president was running against a Republican who was 10 or more years older than them. Democrats won all four of those races, Clinton over Bush in 1992, Clinton over Dole in 96, Obama over McCain in 2008, and Obama over Romney in 2012. Number 18. If I had to put odds on the Biden-Trump matchup, I would have said there was about a 70% chance Trump was going to win. I think if Harris picks a moderate candidate from a swing state as her running mate. Her odds are a lot closer to 50% to win. It's basically a coin flip in my eyes. My initial instinct was this might bring a jolt of energy

strong enough to make her a favorite, but after I spent a night on all the available polling, it's pretty clear she's still an underdog right now. After the campaigning and the twists and turns of the race, I could easily see Trump creating some distance. But I think in the midst of the assassination attempt and questions about Biden's fitness, a lot of people have forgotten how much your average Democrat or moderate genuinely detests Trump. He has some of the worst negatives of any politician ever, and I think Democrats very well may end up back in the driver's seat before the November election. Number 19. What does Biden do now? I'm surprised more people aren't talking about this. He's five months left of his presidency.

He was spurned by his own party. He clearly did not want to drop out, but was instead forced out by the people around him. I'm very, very curious to see how he reacts. Will he quietly ride off into the sunset? Will he reorient all his energy to Harris' campaign and beating Trump? Or will we see the kind of dark Brandon meme in action? Some kind of Biden unchained, who says and does whatever he wants. Does he pardon his son, Hunter? Will he just fight hard to push his agenda and pick up all these pet projects before

leaving office? I honestly have no read on where this is going, and I'm very, very curious to see it. Number 20, fun fact, this will be the first presidential election since 1976 to not have a Biden, Bush, or Clinton on the ticket. Wrap your head around that for a second. Number 21, I was listening to the sports analyst Bill Simmons discuss Biden dropping out this morning. Big Bill Simmons fan, shout out to my guy. He compared it to an NFL team's fan base, really wanting a second string quarterback to come in because the starter was playing terribly and then realizing that the second stringer was the second stringer for a reason. I think this

is a really good analogy to predict what might happen, i.e. Harris flopping and Democrats getting rolled. However, sometimes it's also true that a second string quarterback comes in and absolutely lights it up, even if he's worse than the starter, because the defense's game plan was built entirely for the starting quarterback. And I think that could also happen here. My genuine read on this situation is that Trump wanted Biden to stay in the race and would have much preferred to run against him than Kamala Harris. Number 22, a lot of people like to say that presidential debates don't matter. I'd be very curious what those people think right now. Number 23, I find it very odd that Biden made this decision without us ever seeing

or hearing directly from him. I know he has COVID, so making a national address is complicated, and he probably doesn't look or sound great right now. But he just made the most consequential decision of his entire term, perhaps career, and all we have is a picture of a typed-up statement that has his signature on it. He could have easily uploaded a 60 second video or taken questions outside at a distance from the press. The whole thing is just very, very bizarre and I am extremely curious to see and hear from him directly whenever he emerges from his isolation. And finally, number 24. Consider this. On May 30th, Donald Trump was convicted in the hush money trial. On June 11th, the president's son, Hunter Biden, was found guilty on federal gun

crimes. On June 27th, Biden had the debate performance that led to him dropping out this weekend. On July 1st, the Supreme Court ruled that Trump had broad immunity for official access president. On July 13th, someone tried to assassinate Donald Trump. On July 15th, a Florida judge dismissed Trump's classified documents case. That same day, Trump tapped J.D. Vance as his running mate. On July 21st, Biden announced he was dropping his re-election bid. That's less than two months of history-making news. The election is over three months away. Buckle up. We'll be right back after this quick break. comes A Real Pain, one of the most moving and funny films of the year. Written and directed

by Oscar-nominated Jesse Eisenberg and starring Eisenberg and Emmy Award winner Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain is a comedy about mismatched cousins who reunite for a tour through Poland to honor their beloved grandmother. The adventure takes a turn when the pair's old tensions resurface against the backdrop of their family history. A Real Pain was one of the buzziest titles at Sundance Film Festival this year, garnering rave reviews and acclaim from both critics and audiences alike. See A Real Pain only in theaters November 15th. Got a mortgage? Chances are you're thinking about your payments right now.

Need help? Ask your bank about relief measures that may be available to you. Learn more at Canada.ca slash it pays to know. A message from the Government of Canada. Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th,

only on Disney+. All right, that is it for my take. I'm going to send it back to John for the rest of the pod, and we'll be back here same time tomorrow. Have a good one. Thanks, Isaac. Here's your Under the Radar story for today, folks. Today, the Environmental Protection Agency is announcing $4.3 billion in funding for 25 new projects aimed at addressing climate change. The money, which is part of a $5 billion fund created by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, will be allocated between states, tribes, local governments, and territories as part of climate action plans developed in 2023.

Some of the newly funded projects include initiatives in Nebraska to reduce agricultural waste, in Pennsylvania to reduce industrial pollution, and in Alaska to replace residential oil-burning systems with heat pumps. The EPA expects the funds to be delivered to recipients by early fall. The New York Times has this story, and there's a link in today's episode description. All right, next up is our numbers section. The number of days until the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, Illinois is 28. The number of days since the first presidential debate is 25. The number of days until Election Day is 105.

Donald Trump's lead over Kamala Harris in a hypothetical matchup is 3%, according to a CBS News YouGov poll released last week. matchup, is 3%, according to a CBS News YouGov poll released last week. Trump's lead over Harris in a hypothetical three-way race with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is 5.7%, according to polling averages from Decision Desk HQ and The Hill. Harris's approval rating as of July 17th is 38.6%, according to FiveThirtyEight. Trump's approval rating as of July 21st is 41.7 percent. And the number of Democratic lawmakers who publicly called on Biden to drop out before his announcement on Sunday was 37. And last but not least, our Have a Nice Day story. Hashtag Team Seas has removed over 34 million pounds of trash from our oceans, rivers, and beaches. Founded in 2021 by YouTubers Mark Rober and Jimmy Donaldson, better known as MrBeast,

Hashtag Team Seas partnered with a non-profit environmental organization called The Ocean Cleanup to remove plastic pollution and other debris from bodies of water. Hashtag Team Seas harnessed donations from over 200 countries and territories to accomplish their goal, including some donations from celebrities and billionaires. The initiative was supported online by a variety of creators, with Hashtag Team Seas content receiving over 1.3 billion views across over 40,000 social channels. The group announced their achievement on YouTube, and you can check that out in a link in today's episode description.

All right, everybody, that is it for today's episode. This last month has been full of some of the most incredible political surprises I've seen in my lifetime. We're putting all of our resources and everything we've got, all our energy at Tangle to try and provide you with the best coverage that we can. But that coverage takes support. So if you haven't already, please sign up at readtangle.com for a membership. Right now, that is the best way to support our work. We are working on other ways for you to be able to donate to us. And we are working on ad-free

subscriptions for our podcast, which is another way you'll be able to help. We'll bring you more on that soon. We'll be right back here tomorrow. For Isaac and the rest of the team, this is John Law signing off. Have a great day, y'all. Peace. Our podcast is written by me, Isaac Saul, and edited and engineered by John Wall. The script is edited by our managing editor, Ari Weitzman, Will Kedak, Bailey Saul, and Sean Brady.

The logo for our podcast was designed by Magdalena Bokova, who is also our social media manager. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet75. And if you're looking for more from Tangle, please go to readtangle.com and check out our website.