Tangle - Special edition: Super Tuesday results.

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Starting point is 00:00:19 Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. Breaking news happens anywhere, anytime. Police have warned the protesters repeatedly, get back. CBC News brings the story to you as it happens. Hundreds of wildfires are burning. Be the first to know what's going on and what that means for you and for Canadians. This situation has changed very quickly.

Starting point is 00:00:44 Helping make sense of the world when it matters most. Stay in the know. CBC News. The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is nearly double the historic average of 52,000 cases. What can you do this flu season? Talk to

Starting point is 00:01:05 your pharmacist or doctor about getting a flu shot. Consider FluCellVax Quad and help protect yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages six months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at flucellvax.ca. From executive producer Isaac Saul, this is Tangle. Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening, and welcome to the Tangle Podcast, the place we get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking, and a little bit of my take. I'm your host, Isaac Saul, and on today's episode, we're going to be talking about Super Tuesday and the results from last night's election.

Starting point is 00:02:04 Talking about Super Tuesday and the results from last night's election. Not just a presidential primary night. There's a lot of important stuff going on, and we're going to jump in and break it down for you guys today. Before we jump in, as always, we'll kick things off with some quick hits. First up, Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema, the Democrat turned independent, announced that she is retiring from the Senate. Number two, Senator Bob Menendez, the Democrat from New Jersey, faces new charges for allegations that he was acting as a foreign agent to Egypt. Number three, former President Donald Trump, whose campaign is low on cash, reportedly met with Elon Musk in an effort to solicit financial support. Number four,

Starting point is 00:02:51 the Biden administration is backing a bipartisan bill that could lead to a ban on the popular social media app TikTok. And number five, in a step toward forming the first ever labor union for college athletes, the Dartmouth men's basketball team voted to unionize yesterday. From the port cities of New England to the sandy shores of California, the faithful in America's two political parties are putting the final touches on their party nominees. People in 15 states and one territory are voting. Another state has already decided. That's in Iowa, where Democrats have already announced President Biden has won their mail-in caucuses. We know what's going to happen tonight. It will be a blanket victory for President Biden and a blanket victory in all likelihood for former President Trump,

Starting point is 00:03:46 as both prepare to be well-positioned to become the nominees of their party and set up a 2020 rematch. Well, tonight could be the kickoff to the 2024 general election and ultimately a rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. And that would be the first time

Starting point is 00:04:03 in more than 100 years that a president faces off against a former president. On Tuesday, 16 states and one U.S. territory held their presidential nominating contests. There were also a number of important races in California, North Carolina, Texas, Alabama, and Arkansas, where voters were deciding the Republican and Democratic nominees for Senate races, gubernatorial races, and more. First up, we'll start with the presidential primaries, where on the Republican side, former President Donald Trump won every Super Tuesday state except Vermont, where former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley pulled off a surprising 50 to 46%

Starting point is 00:04:42 upset, despite trailing by more than 30 points in some polls. Trump picked up hundreds of delegates and closed any potential path for Haley to mount a comeback. On Wednesday morning, Haley announced she was dropping out of the presidential race. On the Democratic side, President Joe Biden also pulled off a near sweep, winning every race except in American Samoa, where a little-known entrepreneur named Jason Palmer defeated Biden 51 to 40 total votes. Unlike states, the territory does not have electoral votes in November, but it will send six delegates to the nominating convention. As he did in Michigan, Biden faced an uncommitted vote protest in Minnesota, where more than 45,000 voters, or 19% of the ballots,

Starting point is 00:05:26 voted uncommitted to protest his handling of Israel's war in Gaza. The goal right now is not to get people to vote against the Democrat. We just want the president to listen. And that's why this time right now in early March is crucial, said one voter. In the California Senate race, Representative Adam Schiff, the Democrat, will face Republican Steve Garvey, a former Major League Baseball all-star, in a statewide Senate race to fill the seat of the late Senator Dianne Feinstein. California uses a jungle primary, which puts all candidates, regardless of party, on the same primary ballot and advances the top two finishers in the general election. Representatives Adam Schiff,

Starting point is 00:06:05 Katie Porter, and Barbara Lee were the strongest Democratic contenders. Schiff took the risky move of elevating Garvey and buying ads tying Garvey to Donald Trump in an effort to improve his standing with Republican voters so he would not have to face another Democrat in the general election. It worked. Now, Schiff heads into the general as the dominant favorite in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly two to one. In the North Carolina gubernatorial race, Republican Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson and Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein clinched the nominations for their parties and will face off in North Carolina's race for governor this fall. They'll both be vying to replace Governor Roy Cooper. The race was

Starting point is 00:06:45 closely watched by Democratic strategists who were hoping for a Robinson victory so they could run against him in races across the state. Robinson, a pastor from Greensboro, has been endorsed by Trump and has a chance to become the first Black governor in North Carolina history. But he also has a track record for controversy. He's derided gay people as filth and maggots and caught flack for quoting Hitler. He's also promised to abolish abortion rights, an issue Democrats are planning to make central to their 2024 campaign in every state. North Carolina is a battleground state in 2024, and with Robinson as the Republican nominee, Democratic strategists think they have a better chance of pulling off the upset.

Starting point is 00:07:30 In the Texas Senate primary, once again, Democrats are trying to unseat Senator Ted Cruz, the Republican, this year. Representative Colin Allred emerged from the Democratic primary to run in the 2024 Senate race, topping nine other Democrats in a crowded field. Allred was first elected to the House in 2018 after flipping a Dallas-area seat and has focused much of his early messaging on abortion rights. Former President Donald Trump won Texas by six points in 2020, and Cruz won re-election in 2018 by three points over then- Representative Beto O'Rourke. Notably, Allred has at times distanced himself from Biden and has even sided with Republicans to criticize the president's handling of the U.S.-Mexico border. And for some quick odds and ends that happened

Starting point is 00:08:10 around the country yesterday, Barry Moore defeated Jerry Carl in the Republican primary for Alabama's first congressional district. Moore and Carl were both congressional incumbents, but ended up in the same district after Alabama's map was redrawn. Representative Jeff Jackson, the Democrat from North Carolina, won the Democratic primary for North Carolina's Attorney General seat. Jackson, the author of a popular substack detailing life in Congress, was drawn into a less favorable district last year after the state redistricted and decided to run for Attorney General. Jackson will face Representative Dan Bishop, the Republican from North Carolina, a member of the House Freedom Caucus. California Representative David Valdow,

Starting point is 00:08:49 one of just two House Republicans who is still in Congress after voting to impeach Donald Trump in the wake of January 6th, is leading early returns in his top two primary race, making it likely he appears on the ballot in the fall. Longtime pastor Mark Harris, the Republican, completed a political comeback five years after his dramatic loss in North Carolina. Harris had initially defeated Democrat Dan McCready for the congressional district, but his victory was thrown out because of ballot fraud, forcing one of the only congressional do-overs in U.S. history. Yesterday, Harris won the Republican primary for North Carolina's deep red 8th congressional district, all but assuring he'll be in Congress in 2024. Representative Katie Porter, the Democrat from California famous for her viral questioning of

Starting point is 00:09:35 witnesses in Congress, vacated her seat in the House for an unsuccessful bid in the Senate. In the race to replace her, State Senator Dave Min overcame funding from an outside group tied to the American-Israel Public Affairs Committee to win the Democratic primary and will face off with Republican Scott Ball. The race is widely considered a toss-up. Today, we're going to take a look at some commentary about the results from the left and the right, and then my take. My Take. We'll be right back after this quick commercial break. First up, we'll start with what the left is saying. The left has resigned to Trump's dominance over the GOP but hopes Haley's supporters will not fall in line.

Starting point is 00:10:25 Some focus on the California Senate race, noting the cynical nature of Schiff's campaign strategy. Others are alarmed over Mark Robinson's gubernatorial campaign in North Carolina. In USA Today, Rex Hupke wrote that Nikki Haley and her voters still have a chance to be heroes. They need to vote for Biden. Haley has fought on admirably and may continue, but she's going to lose to a cultish figure who has consumed the Republican Party and is bleeding it dry to help pay the legal costs that come with his multiple criminal indictments, Hupke said. That doesn't mean Haley and her voters can't still be heroes. They just need to vote, hard as it may be, for Joe Biden. Haley has painted the former president accurately and

Starting point is 00:11:05 indisputably as an agent of chaos, Hupke added. It's clear from the substantial support she has received, upwards of 40% of the primary vote in some states, that Haley voters agree with her. So even if Trump wins the nomination, these voters have a chance to stand by their convictions and do their part to make sure Trump doesn't win in the general election. In New York Magazine, Ed Kilgore wrote about the California Senate race and said Schiff's strategy worked. It was a cynical strategy, but a predictable and very successful one. Democratic Congressman Adam Schiff, the early frontrunner in California's top two primary for Senate, had a large war chest of about $50 million. He invested a big chunk of it in boosting the

Starting point is 00:11:45 candidacy of hapless but famous Republican Steve Garvey, Kilgore said. Schiff lent him a hand via the now-familiar tactic of saturation ads, attacking Garvey as a staunch conservative and trusty ally of Donald Trump. This love bombing was intended to consolidate a previously scattered Republican vote behind the former Dodgers and Padres star, and it worked like a charm, Gilgore wrote. Polls had shown that a Schiff-Porter general election might have been very close, but would have been a wildly expensive struggle to the very end between two champion fundraisers. But thanks to California's heavily Democratic tilt, and particularly in a polarizing presidential year, Schiff should dispatch Garvey handily. in a polarizing presidential year, Schiff should dispatch Garvey handily. In Slate, Molly Olmsted called Mark Robinson Super Tuesday's breakout offensive candidate. Robinson has the misfortune

Starting point is 00:12:32 of having spent years on Facebook without thinking about his future political career. The current lieutenant governor of the state and the first Black man to hold the position was a furniture manufacturer who was launched into politics in 2018 when he gave a viral pro-gun speech at a city council meeting in the wake of the Parkland school shooting, Olmsted said. He has not, in the time since his profile rose, worked to purge his social media of controversial content, nor has he played things safe when speaking at churches and other public events and recorded sermons and speeches. So it doesn't take a lot of probing to find how Robinson really feels about certain hot-button issues, Olmsted said.

Starting point is 00:13:10 Robinson, who is also into conspiracy theories, has voiced enough offensive comments for a full accounting to be too unwieldy. But even a sampling of his views showcases just what kind of candidate North Carolina Republicans just selected to be their standard bearer this November. All right, that is it for what the left is saying, which brings us to what the right is saying. The right is heartened by Trump's success, but notes some troubling signs in his performance. Some celebrate Katie Porter's defeat in the California Senate race as a chance for the GOP

Starting point is 00:13:49 to flip her open House seat. Others say the results in California show Democrats won't abandon Biden as their nominee. Breaking news happens anywhere, anytime. Police have warned the protesters repeatedly, get back. CBC News brings the story to you as it happens. Hundreds of wildfires are burning. Be the first to know what's going on and what that means for you and for Canadians. This situation has changed very quickly. Helping make sense of the world when it matters most.

Starting point is 00:14:22 Stay in the know. CBC News. Stay in the know. CBC News. a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. In the Washington Examiner, Jeremiah Poff wrote that Super Tuesday lays bare the GOP's class divide. The most interesting story of the results is not that Trump won, but rather where he did poorly and where Nikki Haley, his last remaining rival, showed a modicum of strength. And it happened to

Starting point is 00:15:10 be in the more liberal regions of each state, Poff said. Such was the common theme of the few areas where Haley found support, liberal enclaves dominated by white voters with college degrees, often around major population centers. There's no question Trump is going to be the nominee, but Haley's pockets of support have laid bare a lingering class divide within the Republican Party, one that pits the party's new working-class base against the old, more educated country club Republicans that dominated the party in prior decades, Poff wrote. This class divide is the only thing standing between Trump and an electoral landslide in the general election, even as he holds a consistent lead over President Joe Biden

Starting point is 00:15:50 in most polls. In red state, Joe Cunningham said Katie Porter gave up a swing seat in Congress to lose to the establishment. The bad news is that we'll have to deal with Schiff being a smug and overconfident little man in the Senate, but he won't have the power he had in the House, Cunningham wrote. But Porter? She gave up her seat in the halls of Congress to run against essentially the California national Democratic establishment. Pelosi very much wanted her protege to win and made sure he did so. Porter never stood a chance, but her leaving means Republicans have a chance to pick up a swing seat in California. Keep in mind, victories in largely Democratic states like California and New York, rather than in the Deep South and Midwest, were what gave House Republicans a slim majority.

Starting point is 00:16:33 With public polling looking like it is right now, there's every possibility that more California Democrats will be disappointed come November. In the American Conservative, Bradley Devlin explored what we learned about Biden and Democrats in the California primary. Biden also won the Democratic presidential primary in commanding fashion. His margin of victory and the lack of an uncommitted movement in one of the nation's most progressive states signals a California Democratic Party in favor of the Biden Democratic mold despite constant speculation that the previously recalled Democratic California governor Gavin Newsom could replace Biden atop the Democratic ticket,

Starting point is 00:17:10 Devlin said. Ditching Biden for Newsom was always a dubious prospect. Did anyone really think Newsom and his climate agenda would perform better than Biden in the states Democrats need to win, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, come November to hold the White House, California's results, not only in the presidential primary, but in the Senate jungle primary, make nominee Newsom all the more unlikely. All right, that is it for the left and the right are saying, which brings us to my take. So every now and then, Tangle goes through these weird phases where we cover the same people or stories over and over again. The last week or two has been very Trump-centric and pretty light on policy-oriented issues, so I don't want to spend too much time on him again here. I'll say the same

Starting point is 00:18:03 thing I said after the Michigan primaries. He is strong with his base, but there are blaring warning signs that he's underperforming and is going to have issues in the general election. None of that should be news. What is news is Haley officially dropping out, which she was right to do. It was clear her path to the nomination was never realistic, but now it's almost mathematically impossible. She took her campaign as far as it could go, and I'm glad she gave Republican voters a legitimate after the nomination, was never realistic, but now it's almost mathematically impossible. She took her campaign as far as it could go, and I'm glad she gave Republican voters a legitimate alternative option, something that didn't happen on the Democratic side. I don't expect we've heard the last from her in this election, and I'll be curious to see what she does with her endorsement, if she gives one at all. As for Biden, well, the uncommitted voters aren't going away.

Starting point is 00:18:44 Challenger Dean Phillips, whom we interviewed, seems aware of the fact that there is no market for what he's offering. The 2020 rematch that nobody, yet everybody, seems to want is here. But the most interesting stories to me are happening outside of the presidential race. Democrats are now making a habit out of boosting Republican candidates to help their own electoral chances, a strategy Adam Schiff employed to box Representatives Katie Porter and Barbara Lee out of the general election. It is an audacious, dangerous move that is also apparently effective. An interesting subplot is that Democrats are now losing Porter, one of their star young politicians from Congress, altogether. If they lose the seat she vacated in the House, the circular firing

Starting point is 00:19:26 squad will be complete. And get ready to hear a lot more about North Carolina. To me, that's the state that has the potential to become the biggest story of 2024. For starters, it has been trending purple for years, and it appears to be a genuine battleground in this year's presidential election. Remember, Trump barely won there in 2020 with 1.3% of the vote. It already has a Democratic governor, and Moody's analytics suggest this is the year it could actually flip. Things are starting to break in Democrats' favor in the Tar Heel state. The issue of abortion is salient, and Democrats will run on it hard in 2024. Republicans have nominated a candidate with some very fringe views

Starting point is 00:20:05 for governor, and you can bet every dollar you have that Biden's campaign is going to tie him to Trump as often as they can. That alone strikes me as enough to give them a fighter's chance. And with 16 electoral votes up for grabs, that's more than Michigan or Wisconsin, you can expect the money to pour in. And of course, there's always Texas, where Democrats are perpetually trying to get rid of Senator Ted Cruz. I doubt they'll have the votes to do it this year, but I suspect it'll be the strongest challenge yet. All red seems like a good fundraiser, and like North Carolina, Texas has been getting a little purpler each year. With Super Tuesday now in the rear view, you can expect the general election politicking to kick into full gear.

Starting point is 00:20:49 If it hadn't before, the 2024 campaign season has officially arrived. We'll be right back after this quick break. All right, that is it for my take, which brings us to your questions answered. This one's from David in Australia, who said, My understanding is that a large chunk of U.S. funding to Ukraine comes from sending older military supplies and then using the money to modernize your own supplies. I've not seen this really discussed a lot of places and wonder if the American public would feel differently if it was better explained. I may be completely wrong too, but if so, please tell me. So it's a good question. Understanding how the money we're allocating to Ukraine actually gets spent is not

Starting point is 00:21:37 very intuitive, so I'm glad you asked. We answered a similar question about how the aid was structured in November, and we'll work off of that as a starting point. Here's what we wrote then, quote, The United States has allocated $113.4 billion in emergency funding for the war in Ukraine. By department, $61.8 billion of that aid is allocated through the Department of Defense, $36.5 billion through U.S. aid, which is overseen by the State Department, $9.9 billion more broadly through the State Department, and $3.4 billion through Health and Human Services, and $1.5 billion through other departments. The salient fact there is that the United States

Starting point is 00:22:16 has allocated $61.8 billion in military aid for Ukraine. Of that, roughly $47 billion has already been sent. About $18 billion was sent through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative for training, equipment, and logistical support, and another $4.73 billion in monetary aid through grants or loans. The remaining roughly $24 billion has been sent through what's called a Presidential Drawdown Authority, or PDA, which is a power granted to the executive to immediately send allies weaponry from our defense stocks. The Department of Defense maintains a stockpile of weapons and funding allocated to PDA is meant to replenish DoD stocks that are to be transferred to Ukraine. That's

Starting point is 00:22:56 according to Congressional Research Service. So on the one hand, it's fair to say that a large chunk, about half of the two-thirds of our total aid that we've budgeted through the Defense Department of Ukrainian support, is spent on modernizing our own stockpile. On the other hand, we probably wouldn't have spent our money on that regardless, and it's not as if those weapons were horribly dated. Those billions still have to come from somewhere. But yes, I do think that understanding how PDA works provides helpful context, and I think it supports my belief that Ukrainian aid is part of a well-spent defense budget. Alright, next up is our under-the-radar section. Yesterday, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, or CFPB, finalized a rule that will curb the penalties for late fees on credit card payments.

Starting point is 00:23:46 The rule will reduce the maximum penalty for a late payment from $32 to $8, which the CFPB estimates will save consumers more than $10 billion in late fees annually. Prior to the rule, credit card companies had consistently increased late fees through a loophole in the Credit Card Accountability Responsibility and Disclosure Act of 2009, with the average penalty for a late payment rising from $23 at the end of 2010 to $32 in 2022. The rule is expected to go into effect later this spring. CNBC has this story and there's a link to it in today's episode description. All right, next up is our numbers section. The number of delegates needed to win the Republican presidential nomination is 1,215. The number of delegates won by Donald Trump as of this morning is 1,053. The number of delegates needed to win the Democratic presidential

Starting point is 00:24:41 nomination is 1,968, and the number of delegates won by Joe Biden as of this morning is 1,548. The number of state primaries held on Super Tuesday was 31, and the number of House district primaries held on Super Tuesday was 115. Nikki Haley's final polling average in the GOP primary was 15.7 percent. polling average in the GOP primary was 15.7%. All right, and last but not least, our have a nice day section. After returning from a routine stop at a local recycling center in Greenville, South Carolina, Melanie Harper discovered she had lost her wedding ring. Harper emailed the city's public works department and asked them if they could keep an eye out for it, and while she went home

Starting point is 00:25:24 unoptimistic, the public works employees upended the whole container in a parking lot and eventually was able to find and return the ring. Incredibly, this is not the first time Public Works employees have found a needle in a haystack, as workers in Corpus Christi, Texas, returned a precious ring lost to the trash to its owner last August. Good News Network has the story, and there's a link to it in today's episode description. All right, everybody, that is it for today's podcast. As always, if you want to support our work, you can go to retangle.com forward slash membership. Don't forget, we got tickets on sale right now for April 17th in New York City at City Winery. We'll be right back here same time tomorrow.

Starting point is 00:26:05 Have a good one. Peace. Our podcast is written by me, Isaac Saul, and edited and engineered by John Wall. The script is edited by our managing editor, Ari Weitzman, Will Kabak, Bailey Saul, and Sean Brady. The logo for our podcast was designed by Magdalena Bokova, who is also our social media manager. Music for our podcast was designed by Magdalena Bokova, who is also our social media manager. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet75. And if you're looking for

Starting point is 00:26:31 more from Tangle, please go to retangle.com and check out our website. We'll see you next time. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is nearly double the historic average of 52,000 cases. What can you do this flu season? Talk to your pharmacist or doctor about getting a flu shot. We'll be right back.

Tangle - Special edition: Super Tuesday results.

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