Tangle - SPECIAL EDITION: The Senate races.

Episode Date: October 17, 2024

On November 5, in addition to presidential, House, state and local elections, voters will be casting ballots in 34 Senate elections in 33 different states. Currently, a coalition of 47 Democrats and four independent senators holds a 51-49 advantage over Republicans in Congress’s upper chamber. This year, Republicans are only defending 11 of the 33 Senate seats up for election and are likely to hold all 11. Two of the 23 Democratic seats up for election — in West Virginia and Montana — are rated solid Republican and lean Republican, respectively, by Cook Political Report.Ad-free podcasts are here!Many listeners have been asking for an ad-free version of this podcast that they could subscribe to — and we finally launched it. You can go to tanglemedia.supercast.com to sign up!You can read today's podcast⁠ ⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠, our “Under the Radar” story ⁠here and today’s “Have a nice day” story ⁠here⁠.Check out our latest YouTube video on misinformation about North Carolina here.Check out Episode 6 of our podcast series, The Undecideds. Take the survey: What Senate races do you think Republicans will win? Let us know!You can subscribe to Tangle by clicking here or drop something in our tip jar by clicking here. Our podcast is written by Isaac Saul and edited and engineered by Dewey Thomas. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75. Our newsletter is edited by Managing Editor Ari Weitzman, Will Kaback, Bailey Saul, Sean Brady, and produced in conjunction with Tangle’s social media manager Magdalena Bokowa, who also created our logo. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Working in the trades is intense. It can be stressful and painful. Some guys use drugs and alcohol to cope. But when we ask for help, or we see someone struggling with addiction... Our silence speaks volumes. See how you can help, or get help, at Canada.ca slash ease the burden. A message from the Government of Canada. From Searchlight Pictures comes A Real Pain, one of the most moving and funny films of the year.

Written and directed by Oscar-nominated Jesse Eisenberg and starring Eisenberg and Emmy Award winner Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain is a comedy about mismatched cousins who reunite for a tour through Poland to honor their beloved grandmother. The adventure takes a turn when the pair's old tensions resurface against the backdrop of their family history. A Real Pain was one of the buzziest titles at Sundance Film Festival this year, garnering rave reviews and acclaim from both critics and audiences alike. See A Real Pain only in theaters November 15th. Based on

Charles Yu's award-winning book. Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world

beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like

to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. From executive producer Isaac Saul, this is Tangle. Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening, and welcome to the Tangle Podcast, the place where we get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking, and a little bit of my take. I'm your host, Isaac Saul, and on today's episode, we're going to be talking about the 2024 Senate races.

This is a special edition. We've identified seven races that I think are going to play a major role in the election. Some might have more. Some might have a fewer. We think seven is the right number. We're going to break down why exactly and going to share a little bit of our take on each of those. Before we do that, I do want to give a heads up that on Sunday, I'm going to be doing something with Ari similar to today's piece and similar to tomorrow's Friday edition piece that's coming out in the newsletter. I'm going to be making my predictions for the 2024 election.

about the presidential race, the Senate race, the House race, and then a few assorted things that I think we should and can expect on election night and right after the election. So if you're interested in that, a reminder that our Sunday podcast is now going behind a paywall. Ari and I are going to be producing that for our members-only offerings. And you can get that podcast by going to tanglemedia.supercast.com. So we're going to be breaking down all these races. I'm going to be putting some flags in the ground and sharing what I think is going to happen. And weirdly enough, I've come to my positions honestly,

but I have to say, I have a couple of hot takes, a couple of zags where other people have been zigging. I think I'm not really sure why, because I'm not intentionally trying to break from the sort of mainstream view on the race, but there are a few things that I landed on after just looking at stuff state by state that I think you might find interesting. All right. With that out of the way, I'm going to send it over to John for the first part of the pod, and I'll be back for my take. Thanks, Isaac, and welcome, everybody. Here are your quick hits for today. First up, a bit of breaking news. Israeli officials say Israel Defense Forces likely

killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, the organizer of the October 7th attacks. The military is waiting for DNA and fingerprint confirmation of Sinwar's identity. Number two, Israel said it allowed 50 aid trucks into northern Gaza from Jordan one day after the Biden administration warned that it would restrict shipments of military supplies to Israel if it did not better address the humanitarian situation in Gaza. Number three, the Nebraska Supreme Court ruled that state residents with felony records can register to vote immediately after finishing their sentences, granting eligibility to thousands of Nebraskans ahead of the state's voter registration deadline. Number four, in an interview with Fox News' Brett Baer, Vice President Kamala Harris faced questions about her record on immigration

and how her administration would be different from President Joe Biden's. Number five, the U.S. Navy announced that a fighter jet crashed in Washington State during a training flight.

The Navy has located the wreckage, but the aircraft's two crew members remain missing. At number six, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky presented the country's parliament with a plan to end its war with Russia in 2025. Separately, President Biden announced a new $425 million military aid package for Ukraine

that includes air defense capabilities, air-to-ground munitions, armored vehicles, and critical munitions. On November 5th, in addition to presidential, house, and state and local elections, voters will be casting ballots in 34 Senate elections in 33 different states. Currently, a coalition of 47 Democrats and four independent senators holds a 51 to 49 advantage over Republicans in Congress's upper chamber. This year, Republicans are only defending 11 of the 33 Senate seats up for election and are likely to hold all 11. Two of the 23 Democratic seats up for election in West Virginia and Montana are rated solid Republican and lean Republican, respectively, by Cook Political Report. Today, we've decided to highlight seven comparative Senate races that we think will play a major role in determining the Senate majority

in 2024. That is Arizona, Michigan, Montana, Nebraska, Ohio, Texas, and Wisconsin. In Arizona, Democratic Representative Ruben Gallego is running against former newscaster Carrie Lake for the seat that current Senator Kyrsten Sinema is vacating at the end of her term. Gallego is a current member of the U.S. House, former state legislator, and U.S. Marine Corps veteran. Lake was a news anchor for Phoenix TV station KSAZ and the Republican candidate for governor in 2022. When Senator Sinema left the Democratic Party in December of 2022, her exit set up a dramatic three-way race with Gallego and Lake, who lost her bid for governor in 2022 by less than a percentage point. Since Sinema dropped out in March, Gallego has been leading Lake in the polls, and he currently leads by an average of seven points. In Michigan,

Democratic Representative Alyssa Slotkin is running against former Republican Representative Mike Rogers for the seat that Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow is vacating at the end of her term. Slotkin is currently a member of the U.S. House and a former CIA analyst. Rogers is a former U.S. Representative and FBI agent. In a race between two national security professionals in a 2024 swing state, both Slotkin and Rogers are painting their opponent as not bipartisan enough to represent Michigan. Slotkin has maintained a slight polling average over Rogers, and she is currently ahead by four points in 538's polling average. Next up is Montana, where Democratic Senator John Tester is running to defend his seat against Republican challenger Tim Sheehy.

Tester is a three-term senator, farmer, and former music teacher. Sheehy is a former U.S. Navy SEAL and founder of two aerospace companies. Tester has held his Senate seat in Deep Red, Montana since 2006, and Democrats are unlikely to hold the Senate majority if Sheehy flips the seat. Despite being outraised by Tester by $30 million, Sheehy has pulled ahead of the incumbent and is now leading by five points in 538's polling average. In Nebraska, Republican Senator Debbie Fisher is running to defend her seat against independent challenger Dan Osborne. Fisher is a two-term senator, cattle ranch owner,

former school board member, and former state legislator. Osborne is a mechanic union leader and veteran of the U.S. Navy and Nebraska National Guard. Osborne has continued to run a tight race with Fisher despite the state's conservative tilt, with pundits believing that his independent affiliation makes the race tough to predict. Fisher has maintained an edge over Osborne, but her current polling lead is now under 1%. In Ohio, Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown is running to defend his seat against Republican challenger Bernie Moreno. Brown is

a three-term senator, former member of the U.S. House, former Ohio Secretary of State, and former state legislator. Moreno is a businessman who has run a chain of car dealerships and a blockchain company. Brown has been a popular career politician. He was first elected to the Senate in 2006 by defeating current Ohio Governor Mike DeWine by 12 percent and won in 2018 by 6.8 percent, but is maintaining a slim lead over Moreno of roughly 2 percent. On to Texas, where Republican Senator Ted Cruz is running to defend his seat against the Democratic challenger Representative Colin Allred. Cruz is a two-term senator, former law clerk to Justice William Rehnquist,

and former director of the Office of Policy Planning for the Federal Trade Commission. Allred is a current member of the U.S. House and former football player for the Tennessee Titans. Democrats have not won a statewide election in Texas since 1994, and Cruz's seat is rated as the most contentious Republican-held Senate seat for the 2024 election. Cruz has maintained a consistent lead over All Red and currently has a four-point margin in 538's polling average. And finally, we come to Wisconsin, where Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin is defending her seat against Republican challenger Eric Hovde. Baldwin is a two-term senator, former state legislator, and former lawyer. Hovde is a real estate executive, bank CEO, and co-founder of the nonprofit Hovde Foundation.

Despite being outraced 2-1 and facing an incumbent who won her last election by nearly 10 points, Hovde's campaign has tightened the race to the point where an internal Republican poll shows him up by one point. On the polling averages, Baldwin still maintains a four-point lead. Additionally, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee recently announced a multi-million dollar investment in television advertising in Florida's Senate race between Republican Senator Rick Scott and former Democratic Representative Debbie McCarcel Powell. However, polling shows Scott with a sizable lead and Cook Political Report reads the seat as likely Republican. Today, we'll get into what the left and right are saying about these races, and then Isaac's take. We'll be right back after this quick break. Are you sick of the half-truths and partisan spin this election cycle?

Well, you can get past the bluster and get back to the facts by joining The Dispatch. Jonah Goldberg and Steve Hayes launched The Dispatch in 2019 to build an enduring presence on the center right for original reporting and thoughtful analysis. There's no insulting clickbait, no false outrage, no annoying autoplay videos, just reliable journalism that prioritizes context, depth, and understanding. As we rush toward Election Day, these values matter more than ever. You can join the 500,000-plus readers and start reading The Dispatch today. Personally, I can say I go to it for reliable perspectives from the center right on the news of the day. Tangle listeners, if you're hearing this ad,

you can claim an exclusive 30-day all-access free trial by clicking the link in today's episode description. You can also go to thedispatch.com forward slash join dash offer dash tangle. That's thedispatch.com forward slash join dash offer dash tangle. Working in the trades is intense. It can be stressful and painful. Some guys use drugs and alcohol to cope. But when we ask for help or we see someone struggling with addiction our silence speaks volumes see how you can help or get help at canada.ca

slash ease the burden a message from the government of canada from searchlight pictures comes a real pain one of the most moving and funny films of the year A message from the backdrop of their family history. A Real Pain was one of the buzziest titles at Sundance Film Festival this year, garnering rave reviews and acclaim from both critics and audiences alike. See A Real Pain only in theaters November 15th. Thank you. All right, first up, let's start with what the left is saying. The left worries that Tester's seat will decide control of the Senate. Some point to Nebraska as a source of hope that Democrats could unseat a Republican incumbent. Others say Democrats have no choice but to play offense in Florida and Texas. In the Boston Globe, Kale Weston asked,

Will John Tester be the last of the Mountain State Democrats? The U.S. Senate race in Montana, where Democratic Senator John Tester is facing a well-heeled Republican challenger, will test an important question in American politics today. Can the endangered species once known as the rural Democrats survive Trumpism, Weston wrote. Tester, a moderate Democrat and gun owner who supports abortion rights and sits on the powerful Committee on Appropriations, has never had an easy Senate race. But this year, the popularity of Trumpism, particularly its warnings of a nation in decline and its calls to fear immigrants, is making his case much harder to sell. Whether Tester's stages of miraculous come from behind win or loss is expected, Democrats nationwide should pay attention to what he has to say about winning votes in tough zip codes for Democrats. He has long emphasized that the

party of FDR and JFK, both of whom won in many rural counties across the country back in their day, is now toxic in rural America, Weston said. Tester's latest stand might be his last. It could signal unexpected hope on election day for millions of Mountain West Democrats, or more likely, more hard years ahead

of persevering in the political wilderness defined by red state demographics and the domineering politics of Trump. In the Washington Post, David Vondrelli said, Democrats thought their Senate hopes were dead. They were just in Nebraska. Osborne offers himself as a nonpartisan servant of the state's working people and family farmers and sensible folks tired of the circus. In more than 150 town hall meetings, Osborne has taken every question thrown at him, patiently trying to convince voters that I am someone who looks at the issues objectively with compassion,

not someone whose hand is in your pocket, Fondrelli wrote. His essential libertarian approach to abortion and other culture war issues would seem to give him an edge against Fisher, who supports a strict national abortion ban. In fine Nebraska style, Osborne doesn't fit the mold, even if this is a state known to send the occasional Democrat to Washington. But he'd like to become the mold, Vondrelli added. A new internal poll by SurveyUSA shows Osborne with 50% of likely voters

and a six-point lead over Fisher, up from a one-point lead in the same poll last month. And data suggests that Osborne is winning one in five Trump voters. He'll need that many or more to win as an independent in these highly partisan times. But if it can happen anywhere, Nebraska's the place. In MSNBC, Hayes Brown wrote, Texas and Florida are too big an opportunity for Dems to pass up.

Democrats can look at Florida and Texas in a couple of ways. From one angle, the states are both places where victory has just been out of reach, a tantalizing what if. From another, they offer an unlearned lesson in heartbreak, a constant loop of Lucy yanking the football away from Charlie Brown at the last second, Brown said. For now, the former point of view is winning out, as Senate Democrats look to hold onto their slim majority. The electoral map was never a good one for Senate Democrats this cycle, forced to defend far more seats than their Republican counterparts. With the GOP set to claim a seat from retiring Senator Joe Manchin, the independent from West Virginia, the upper

house is already starting from a 50-50 split. Florida was once one of the biggest swing states in the country, but has shifted to the right in the last decade, producing blowout wins for the GOP in the 2022 midterms. It doesn't help that the Democratic Party there has been a bit of a mess. Conversely, Texas is deep Republican territory that Democrats have spent the last decade trying to transform into a purple state, Brown wrote. With this much on the line, there's little choice but to square up and take a running start at the football again. Better to land flat on your back than to be left wishing you'd taken the stance of dispatching the likes of Scott and Cruz. All right, that is it for what the left is saying, which brings us to what the right is

saying. The right also views Montana as a decisive Senate race, but many warn Republicans not to assume victory. Some contend the only outstanding question is how large Republican Senate majority will be. Others say Democrats' efforts in long-shot states are a sign of impending defeat. In the Wall Street Journal, Faith Bottom said, the Montana state race may decide the majority. No Democratic presidential candidate

has carried Montana since 1992. It's safely in Donald Trump's camp. But the incumbent up for re-election, Senator Jon Tester, is a Democrat who has managed since 2006 to convince Montanans that the state needs him to help with local concerns, Bottom wrote. If the Montana state Senate race comes down to national issues, inflation, immigration, interest rates, then the Republican challenger, Tim Sheehy, is likely to win.

If the election revolves primarily around local issues, immigration, interest rates, then the Republican challenger, Tim Sheehy, is likely to win. If the election revolves primarily around local issues, public land use, housing, the right to abortion initiative, Mr. Tester stands a good chance of re-election. Mr. Sheehy's polling advantage may stick simply because voters are tuning out of the candidate's incessant advertising, but Mr. Tester has been in close races before and pulled them out, Bottom noted. The real question for Mr. Tester is whether his old-style Democratic campaigning still works in Montana, where no other Democrat has been elected statewide since 2016. The republicanization of the working class, the importance of national issues, and the rising number of new conservatives in the state give the edge to Mr. Sheehy.

But it's still close, and a GOP Senate isn't a sure thing. In PJ Media, Rick Moran asked, how big a Senate majority can the GOP expect after the election? The question has never been, will the GOP win a majority in the Senate? The question has always been, how big will that majority end up being, Moran wrote. Democrats have already written off West Virginia. Elsewhere, there are several states where the GOP is ahead or in striking distance. In the presidential backgrounds of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Wisconsin, Virginia. Elsewhere, there are several states where the GOP is ahead or in striking distance.

In the presidential backgrounds of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Wisconsin, Democratic incumbents are barely hanging on. In Montana, GOP Representative Tim Sheehy is comfortably ahead of incumbent Democrat John Tester. Senator Rick Scott in Florida has pulled away from Democrat Debbie McCarcel Powell by nine points. Senator Ted Cruz in Texas is up 48 to 45 over Colin Allred in a state that Democrats have been claiming they've been on the verge of flipping for the last decade, Moran said. There's a chance the GOP could win a clean sweep of those eight seats held by Democrats. Realistically, Republicans should end up with a 52 or 53 seat majority. In the Washington Examiner, Jeremiah Poff suggested Democrats' efforts in Florida and Texas are desperate. To keep the Senate at a 50-50 tie, Democrats are facing increasingly long odds

of holding the Montana Senate seat currently held by Senator John Tester and also face a challenge in holding the seat held by Senator Sherrod Brown in Ohio. Both men represent states that are all but assured of being won easily by former President Donald Trump in the concurrent presidential race and must rest their hopes for another term on the willingness of Trump voters to vote for Democrats down ballot, Poff wrote. But in the 12 years since the class one senators last shared the ballot with presidential candidates, only one senator has managed to win a race that saw the other party's nominee win the state in the concurrent presidential election, Senator Susan Collins, the Republican from Maine. Which is why the Democratic Party's decision to invest in Florida and Texas makes little sense on its surface, but is effectively the only option the party is left

with if it wants to regain control of the Senate, Poff said. If there is any consolation for Democrats, it's this. Republican Senate candidates in competitive states are currently running several points behind Trump in the polls. Still, the scarcity of ticket splitting means that the party desperately needs Vice President Kamala Harris to win several swing states to give Democrats a shot at keeping the Senate by pulling off an upset and unfavorable territory, assuming ticket splitting does not make an unexpected comeback. All right, let's head over to Isaac for his take. All right, that is it for what the left and the right are saying, which brings us to my take.

So no matter how you look at the Senate map, I would say the outlook is pretty bleak for Democrats. I'm going to give state-specific predictions in Sunday's edition, but the simple reality is this. West Virginia's lost. Montana appears to be headed in the same direction. Other got-to-have races in Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin seem to be on shakier ground than they were a month ago. Virtually every major polling outfit thinks Republicans are more likely than not to flip the chamber, and I share that expectation. PJ Media's Rick Moran, under what the right is saying,

is probably right to say that we shouldn't focus on whether Republicans will retake the Senate, but just how many seats they will pick up. Democrats undoubtedly face a tough map in this cycle. Counting West Virginia, they have 23 seats to defend to Republicans' 11, and they have to do so in a presidential election year when turnout is typically at its highest. Conversely, Republicans are only defending reliably red states.

But party leaders and analysts have known this was coming for years, and bad luck alone doesn't explain why they are now staring down a potential catastrophe. To explore the specifics of why they are now staring down a potential catastrophe. To explore the specifics of why Democrats are struggling, I'm going to give a short take on the seven state races that seem most important to determining party control, touching on the major narratives, the latest outlook, and the chances of a surprise outcome. Of course, as a national politics reporter, I don't know these races as well as some state-level reporters and pundits might. For instance, I probably know

Pennsylvania the way a lot of reporters in Arizona or Wisconsin know those states. But in many ways, these campaigns reflect our national politics in ways that should resonate, even if you aren't familiar with the specifics of each race. All right, first up, we're going to start with Arizona. Ruben Gallego, the Democrat, has a commanding lead over Kerry Lake, the Republican, in purple Arizona. And it's sort of somewhat shocking. He was a leader of the Congressional Progressive Caucus just two years ago. And if he was known at all nationally, it was for tweets where he was cursing at senators like Ted Cruz. It's easy to understand why an astronaut veteran like Mark Kelly wins in a state like Arizona. It's harder to see how someone like Gallego could be a viable statewide candidate until you compare him to his opponent.

Put simply, voters really, really, really don't like Carrie Lake. She strikes me personally as a shameless opportunist, and her 2022 campaign for governor was defined in part by bashing John McCain and denying the 2020 election results, and then the results of her own election loss. I do not like her chances this time around either. The latest Marist poll found Lake's favorability is underwater, and those impressions are likely solidified at this point in the race. Republicans, like Mitch McConnell, have been warning about the need for strong candidates in those close races, and they can't be happy about Lake in this very winnable race. All signs point toward Gallego winning. In Michigan, a Republican hasn't won a Senate race for three decades, but Mike Rogers has a strong shot at reversing that trend. Even though Trump's 2016 upset is an outlier against a deep blue

background in Michigan, there's plenty of reason to suspect the state will be close again in 2024. In recent weeks, local organizers and Representative Alyssa Slotkin herself have been ringing alarm bells about the situation on the ground in a way that's reminiscent of the stories that came out of Wisconsin in October of 2016. While Slotkin has a significant fundraising edge, the GOP's Senate Leadership Fund is spending on the race like it believes it has a genuine chance to win. A key narrative to watch is whether suburban Michigan will continue its shift toward Democrats or whether Rogers can win back voters who stop supporting the GOP because of Trump. I think the leaks coming out of Slotkin's office

point to big trouble for Democrats, and I'll be talking more about this race in Sunday's podcast. Next up is Montana. Commentators on the left and right both view this race as not just the one most likely to swing control of the Senate, but also the one that symbolizes the political realignment in the age of Trump. To me, the race is most compelling not just for its implications, but because of the candidates. Tester, the Democrat, personifies Montana without veering into caricature, leaning into his image as a dirt farmer who's looked out for the state's interests since he was elected in the Senate in 2006. Notably, he's also one of the country's most popular senators. Meanwhile, she is a former Navy SEAL who built two successful aerospace businesses in Montana, one military technology company, which he sold, and another focused on fighting wildfires. In other words, both parties are fielding their strongest candidates. She is up big in the poll, and I think there are two

important caveats to consider when assessing the race. First, Montana is notoriously difficult to poll, and Tester has a history of finishing strong in competitive campaigns. Still, Tester's prospects look dim, and he may very well join West Virginia's Joe Manchin as the last of the rural Democrats. All right, that's it for Montana, which brings us to Nebraska. The story unfolding in Nebraska's Senate race is one of the more surprising ones of the 2024 election, and it gives Democrats a glimmer of hope that they could deny Republicans an outright flip of the chamber. To recap, independent candidate Dan Osborne is running a long-shot campaign to oust incumbent Senator Deb Fischer, the Republican, and he's kept it close enough that some recent polls actually show him in the lead. The state is expected to vote for Trump by a wide margin, with the exception of its second congressional district, which allocates its electoral votes separately. But Osborne is an appealing character whose

politics are hard to pin down. Most importantly, he centered his campaign on hyper-local issues, like right-to-repair legislation for farm equipment and rail safety measures, while prioritizing on-the-ground engagement. I think Republicans are right to worry about this race, even if I still view Fisher as the heavy favorite. Osborne Republicans are right to worry about this race, even if I still view Fisher as the heavy favorite. Osborne seems to have charisma that appeals to working class voters, not unlike Trump. And should he pull off the upset, he'd be a major wild card regardless of whether Republicans flip the Senate. That brings us to Ohio. I think this race will determine whether Republicans take back the Senate in dominant fashion, say picking up four or five seats, or whether they eke out a majority.

Brown, the Democrat, faces a challenge similar to Jon Tester in Montana. He's running in a state that's certain to go for Trump and where most other Democrats would be losing handily. But also like Tester, Brown is one of those adept politicians in the country, someone who's built a political profile over a long career in Ohio politics that enables him to stand apart from broad generalizations about the Democratic Party. He's also in the toughest fight of his career. Moreno, the Republican, has tied himself to Trump's hip,

and it looks like a smart strategy. Recent polls show the race is a toss-up. He has also cut into Brown's once-significant fundraising advantage, putting the incumbent on the defensive on sensitive issues. Moreno has his fair share of vulnerabilities, but both parties will be sweating this one out down to the wire. If Brown goes down, you can expect a very good night across the board for Republicans. And that brings us to Texas. In recent weeks, several major news outlets have published stories

about the race between Cruz and Allred, suggesting that the incumbent Republican is in trouble. If that narrative sounds familiar, it's because it's very similar to the stories from the home stretch of Cruz's 28 campaign against Beto O'Rourke. That election ended up relatively close for a Democrat in Texas, but Beto still fell short. I think we're in for a similar outcome this year. Allred is a pretty good politician, and he's generally run a very savvy campaign. But Cruz has won tough fights before, and he's running in a national political environment that seems far more favorable to Republicans than it was in 2018. Democrats have long been pining for a major upset

in Texas, the kind that would cement a political realignment that shifts the outlook for presidential elections and beyond. Remember, Texas has 40 electoral votes, second only to California. That day might come as the electoral maps have changed all throughout American history, but I don't think it's this year. And finally, that brings us to Wisconsin. This race is just going in the wrong direction for Tammy Baldwin and the Democrats. Last week, Cook Political shifted its rating for the race from lean Democrat to toss up a decision that's backed up by other recent polls.

And it's not just the polls. The surest sign that a race is close is when national parties start spending heavily and the money is pouring into Wisconsin. Whether it will be enough to propel Hovde to victory remains to be seen. He's a political rookie who lacks strong roots in Wisconsin, and Baldwin has landed some effective blows about his positions on abortion and social security. Most troubling for Democrats, though, is what Baldwin's struggles signal about their

overall prospects in the state. Baldwin won by 11% the last time she stood for re-election, but now she's fighting for her political life as Trump has cut Harris' polling lead to less than a point. Baldwin won't need to outrun Harris by the same margins as Tester or Brown, but the vice president's recent struggles in the Rust Belt mean that Baldwin may have to outperform the top of the ticket to keep her seat. Much like the Michigan and Ohio Senate races, the outcome in Wisconsin could be the difference between a big night for Republicans and an underwhelming one.

All right, that is it for my take. I'm gonna send it back to John for the rest of the pod since this is a special edition on the Senate races. We're skipping our reader question today, but keep an ear out for a special Friday edition that's exclusive for Tangle podcast listeners tomorrow. And of course, tune in for our prediction podcast on Sunday. And don't forget to go to tanglemedia.supercast.com

to make sure you get those. We'll see you guys on Monday. Otherwise, have a good one. Peace. We'll be right back after this quick break. Working in the trades is intense. It can be stressful and painful. Some guys use drugs and alcohol to cope.

But when we ask for help, or we see someone struggling with addiction... Our silence speaks volumes. See how you can help or get help at Canada.ca slash ease the burden. A message from the Government of Canada. From Searchlight Pictures comes A Real Pain, one of the most moving and funny films of the year. Written and directed by Oscar-nominated Jesse Eisenberg and starring Eisenberg and Emmy Award winner Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain is a comedy about mismatched cousins who reunite for a tour through Poland to honor their beloved grandmother. The adventure takes a turn when the pair's old tensions resurface against the backdrop of their family history.

A Real Pain was one of the buzziest titles at Sundance Film Festival this year, garnering rave reviews and acclaim from both critics and audiences alike. See A Real Pain only in theaters November 15th. Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+.

Thanks, Isaac. Here's your Under the Radar story for today, folks. The number of petitions for union membership has soared under President Joe Biden after declining during the Trump administration. 3,286 petitions were filed with the government in fiscal year 2024, over double the 1,638 in 2021, marking the first increase in unionization petitions during a presidential term since Gerald Ford's administration. Union workers are expected to be a key constituency in the 2024 election, particularly in swing states,

Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Biden won 56% of the union vote in 2020, but Trump is hoping to make headway with the group on the back of proposals to put tariffs on many imports. The Associated Press has this story, and there's a link in today's episode description. All right, next up is our numbers section. Since 1948, the number of split presidential Senate outcomes in which a state votes for a presidential candidate from one party and a Senate candidate from another is 196.

Of those split ticket outcomes, the approximate percentage that were Democratic Senate candidates winning in a state won by a Republican presidential candidate was 70%. The number of states that produced a split ticket outcome in the 2016 and 2020 elections combined is one, which was Maine in 2020. The number of states that produced split-ticket outcomes in 1968 was 18, the most of any presidential election since 1948. The number of states that produced split-ticket outcomes in 2000 was 10, the most of any presidential election in the 21st century.

The number of Senate races for seats currently held by Democrats rated as toss-up, lean Republican, or solid Republican by Cook Political Report is five. The number of Senate races for seats currently held by Republicans rated as toss-up or lean Democrat is zero. Republicans' chances of winning the Senate in 2024 is 72 percent, according to Decision Desk HQ's forecast model. And the projected number of Senate seats that will be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively is 52 and 48. All right, and last but not least, our Have a Nice Day story. At seven years old, Dhanush Ashwar was already coding. His first app was a tic-tac-toe game he played with his younger sister. By the time he reached his teens, Ashwar

was looking for ways to use coding to solve real-world issues. This year at 17, Ashwar's solution-oriented focus made him one of 50 winners in Apple's Swift Student Challenge. His submission was an app called FingerDance, which helps individuals learn ASL. Currently, he's working on an app that translates ASL hand signs to English in real time, like a Google Translate for visual languages, he said. Nice news has this story, and there's a link in today's episode description. All right, that is it for today's episode. As always, if you'd like to support our work, please go to retangle.com and sign up for a membership, or you can sign up for a premium podcast membership at tanglemedia.supercast.com. We're going to have two special offerings for

Friday. So if you're a newsletter subscriber and a podcast subscriber, Isaac is going to be making his predictions for the 2024 election in the newsletter. And on the podcast, we're going to be airing a special interview that Isaac did with Dr. Noam Weissman, Executive Vice President of Open Door Media and recognized thought leader in innovative Israel and Jewish education. Isaac and Ari will be here for the Sunday podcast, where they're going to be discussing a bit more about the Senate race and Isaac's predictions. And I'll return next week. For the rest of the crew, this is John Law signing off.

Have a fantastic weekend, y'all. Peace. Our podcast is written by me, Isaac Saul, and edited and engineered by Duke Thomas. Our script is edited by Ari Weitzman, Will Kabak, Bailey Saul, and edited and engineered by Duke Thomas. Our script is edited by Ari Weitzman, Will Kabak, Bailey Saul, and Sean Brady. The logo for our podcast was made by Magdalena Pikova, who is also our social media manager. The music for the podcast was produced by Diet75. And if you're looking for more from Tangle, please go check out our website at readtangle.com. That's readtangle.com. That's readtangle.com.