Tangle - SPECIAL EDITION: The Trump guilty verdict.

Starting point is 00:00:00 Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages six months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at flucellvax.ca.

Starting point is 00:01:00 From executive producer Isaac Saul, this is Tangle. Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening, and welcome to the Tangle podcast, a place we get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking, and a little bit of my take. We are recording a bit of an emergency podcast here. We had other plans for today. I was going to publish this piece about all the things I've gotten wrong. Well, not all the things, but three of the things I've gotten wrong recently. And we told all of you that was coming today in yesterday's newsletter and podcast. And then yesterday afternoon, we got the verdict in the Trump trial. And, you know, I'm very fond of waiting oftentimes for things to kind of settle. But in this case, I think it was appropriate for us to jump right on this and make sure we got something out as soon as possible, because a lot of what has happened in this case has just been deeply reported already. We've covered it several times.

Starting point is 00:02:09 There was no new information really that came about yesterday, except that they found Trump guilty. So I felt like we were perfectly prepared to publish this podcast and to do a newsletter on it. So we are doing that. This is going to be a little bit abbreviated. We're going to have quick hits. We're going to have the main story and the left and the right, and then my take, but we're skipping the reader question and the under the radar story and some of that other stuff. And as always, we will end with a have a nice day story. So here it is, the Trump verdict. It's here. It's arrived. Before we jump in though, as always, we'll start off with some quick hits. First up, in a major shift of U.S. policy, President Biden has authorized Ukraine to conduct limited strikes inside Russia, solely near the area of Kharkiv, with American-made weapons. Number two, the United States Supreme Court voted

Starting point is 00:03:06 unanimously to reinstate the National Rifle Association's free speech lawsuit against a New York regulator who tried to get companies and banks to cut ties with the group. Number three, the FAA authorized Amazon's delivery drones to fly longer distances without visual spotters, a key hurdle for Amazon's developing air delivery service. Number four, 14 pro-democracy activists in Hong Kong were found guilty of conspiring to subvert the government under the new national security law passed in 2020. And number five, Benny Gant, a member of Israel's centrist party and war cabinet, submitted a bill to dissolve parliament and force early elections

Starting point is 00:03:45 in an effort to oust Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. 249 years of American history, 249 years of American presidents, and never has anything like this happened before. Historic, unprecedented felony conviction of Donald Trump, the 45th president of the United States. I do begin with the breaking news late today, that stunning moment in American history. The former president, Donald Trump, found guilty on 34 felony counts. The first former president of the United States convicted on criminal charges. This was a disgrace. This was a rigged trial by a conflicted judge who was corrupt. It's a rigged trial, a disgrace. They wouldn't give us a venue change. We were

Starting point is 00:04:39 at 5% or 6% in this district, in this area. This was a rigged, disgraceful trial. The real verdict is going to be November 5th by the people. And they know what happened here, and everybody knows what happened here. On Thursday, former President Donald Trump was convicted on all 34 counts of falsifying business records to cover up a quote-unquote hush money payment to adult film star Stormy Daniels. The jury deliberated for two days to find Trump guilty, making Trump the first

Starting point is 00:05:16 former president in U.S. history to be convicted of a crime. A quick reminder, Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg charged Trump with orchestrating a scheme to pay Daniels in 2016 to keep quiet about an alleged sexual encounter with Trump roughly 10 years earlier. While falsifying business records is typically a misdemeanor in New York, Bragg argued that falsified payments were felonies in this case because they were part of a larger effort by Trump to unlawfully influence the 2016 election. because they were part of a larger effort by Trump to unlawfully influence the 2016 election. Michael Cohen, Trump's former lawyer and the state's star witness, paid Daniels $130,000 one month before the 2016 election, after which he said Trump falsified business records to disguise

Starting point is 00:05:56 his reimbursement as ordinary legal expenses. Bragg charged Trump with 34 felony counts, one for each record he falsified while reimbursing Cohen. Both Cohen and Daniels testified during the trial, but Trump opted not to. You can find previous coverage of this trial from Tangle in today's episode description or by clicking through some links in today's newsletter. Judge Juan Merchant, who oversaw the trial, set Trump's sentencing date for July 11th, four days before the start of the Republican National Convention. All the charges against Trump are Class E felonies, the lowest tier of felony charges in New York, but each count carries the possibility of up to

Starting point is 00:06:35 four years in prison. If Merchant decides to impose a prison sentence on Trump, he is likely to order the term to be served simultaneously for each count, rather than one at a time for each count. Alternatively, Merchant could impose a fine on Trump or sentence him to probation. The verdict does not disqualify Trump from running for office, and he will retain his voting rights in his home state of Florida as long as he is not sentenced to prison. Trump is also expected to appeal the verdict, a process that could take years to resolve. He has until June 13th to file a motion to appeal. After the verdict was rendered, Judge Merchant credited the jurors for their service in the trial. You gave this matter the attention it deserved and I want

Starting point is 00:07:14 to thank you for that, Merchant told them. Trump's attorney Todd Blanch moved for acquittal when the jury left the room, which Judge Merchant denied. Donald Trump addressed the verdict in brief comments outside the courtroom in Manhattan. This was a rigged, disgraceful trial, Trump told reporters. The real verdict is going to be November 5th by the people. They know what happened here and everybody knows what happened here. Following the conviction, District Attorney Alvin Bragg gave a statement to the press. While this defendant may be unlike any other in American history, we arrived at this trial and ultimately today at this verdict in the same manner as every other case that comes to the courtroom doors, by following the facts and the law and doing so without fear or favor,

Starting point is 00:07:53 Bragg said. In today's special Friday edition, we'll give this story the standard tangled treatment, with views from the right and the left about the verdict, and then my take. First up, we'll start with what the right is saying. The right is outraged by the verdict, calling it the result of a sham trial. Some suggest the conviction will benefit Trump politically. Others worry the trial has worsened polarization in the United States. The New York Post editorial board said Trump fell victim to a prostituted court of law. The violations of basic fairness in the trial were legion. Merchant wouldn't let the defense call an expert witness to testify that no federal campaign finance law was violated. He routinely shut down the defense while letting the prosecution

Starting point is 00:08:49 get away with gross violations, including telling multiple outright lies in its closing statement, the board wrote. Jurors didn't realize that the only testimony indicating criminal intent on Trump's part, something utterly necessary for a guilty verdict, came from Michael Cohen, a confessed serial liar who admitted to a personal vendetta against the defendant. Nor see that Bragg's team didn't even show that Trump had actually falsified any business records. All that should get the verdict tossed on appeal. But for now, President Biden's campaign can and will call Trump a convicted felon every minute through Election Day, the board said. Most of the modern Democratic Party that Biden happily leads, or arguably is led by,

Starting point is 00:09:28 cares only about power. All Biden's other disasters aside, that by itself is ample reason for the court of public opinion to vote him out come Election Day. In City Journal, Ilya Shapiro argued the verdict is a travesty of justice. From the moment that Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg chose to indict Trump for nearly decade-old offenses that Bragg himself had previously declined to prosecute, the circus came to town. The jury's finding of guilt on all 34 counts of falsifying business records are almost anticlimactic, putting the cherry on top of multiple scoops of misused legal authority, Shapiro wrote. Trump won't go to jail, not for these charges, but the New York process continues to taint the

Starting point is 00:10:10 other, more serious prosecutions that the former president faces, for which he almost certainly won't be tried before the election. And it continues to taint the election itself, though not necessarily in Democrats' favor. After all, Trump's standing in opinion polls improved after Bragg's indictment, turning what was supposed to be a competitive Republican primary into a coronation. And these convictions are likely already factored into voters' perceptions, Shapiro said. It should never have come to this, and for that, I blame not so much the jurors, but the DA and the judge. In red state, Jeff Charles wrote that this might get ugly. It was clear from the beginning that this whole case was a ploy intended to target a political opponent. Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg's decision to go forward with these charges

Starting point is 00:10:53 had nothing to do with a pursuit of justice, but an effort to affect the upcoming election, Charles said. Democrats might live to regret this particular legal gambit. Trump and Biden have been polling at a statistical dead heat, even with all the indictments and media meddling. This conviction could very well push Trump ahead of the current occupant of the White House. This is especially true if the other pending cases produce similar results. While this fiasco is certainly going to redound negatively on Democrats, what about American society? America is already quite divided. Politics has become a top priority for many who might not have paid as much attention previously. The past decade has

Starting point is 00:11:31 seen this fissure grow even wider. This has already inflamed passions about Trump and will probably lead to more polarization over the coming months, Charles wrote. If he loses after a campaign season full of political prosecutions, it will serve to exasperate attitudes on both sides. Alright, that is it for the rightist saying, which brings us to what the left is saying. The left mostly welcomes the verdict, arguing that the justice system worked as designed. Some praise Judge Merchant and the jury for fulfilling their duties in a historic trial. Others say the case against Trump was weak, despite the guilty verdict. The New York Times editorial board said the verdict offers another reason why Trump is

Starting point is 00:12:17 unfit for office. Americans may wonder about the significance of this moment. The Constitution does not prohibit those with a criminal conviction from being elected or serving as commander-in-chief, even if they are behind bars. The nation's founders left that decision in the hands of voters, the board wrote. Yet the greatest good to come out of this sordid case is the proof that the rule of law binds everyone, even former presidents. Under extraordinary circumstances, the trial was conducted much like any other criminal trial in the city. The verdict itself establishes that Mr. Trump committed crimes in hiding pertinent information about himself from the American people for the purpose of influencing the 2016

Starting point is 00:12:54 presidential election. It revealed even more evidence of what Mr. Trump is willing to do, including breaking the law and pushing others to break the law for political gain, the board said. In the end, the jury heard the evidence, deliberated for more than nine hours, and came to a decision, which is how the system is designed to work. In the Los Angeles Times, Harry Littman wrote, Does it matter that Donald Trump just became a convicted criminal? Of course it does. The jury and the judge did their work conscientiously and even doggedly under a hailstorm of insults and threats from the defendant and his supporters. We have for years hoped for such a measure of accountability for the unrepentant former president.

Starting point is 00:13:32 It finally arrived, and the center held, Whitman said. Unlike the insults, the accolades showered on the jurors and Judge Juan Merchant are more than deserved. Having attended most of the trial, I think their seriousness of purpose matched the gravity of their duties. Trump is an altered figure in the eyes of that law. No longer presumed innocent, he has proven guilty, a convict, a serial offender. And like any other convict, he will have to sit down for an interview with the probation office, which will prepare a report and recommendation for the judge based on its assessment of Trump's offenses and his acceptance of responsibility, among other factors. That doesn't augur well for a man who has spent a lifetime failing to own up to misconduct, Lippman wrote. Today, though, the law prevailed in a fashion that was at the same time basic and

Starting point is 00:14:17 majestic. Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada,

Starting point is 00:14:49 which is nearly double the historic average of 52,000 cases. What can you do this flu season? Talk to your pharmacist or doctor about getting a flu shot. Consider FluCellVax Quad and help protect yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages six months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at flucellvax.ca. In MSNBC, Jessica Levinson suggested Alvin Bragg got lucky. Let's be honest with each other.

Starting point is 00:15:24 Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg's case. Let's be honest with each other. Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg's case was convoluted, and the jury convicting Trump shows that he got lucky in this case, Levinson said. The case morphed into an amalgamation of all the cases pending against Trump. It was at once, according to prosecutors, a documents case and an election interference case. But one case should never have been seen as a referendum on whether the criminal justice system can hold Trump to account. Even though the jury did convict him, there are still real legal issues that Trump will bring up on appeal. There may, for instance, be some question as to whether prosecutors can use the violation of a federal law to show actions by

Starting point is 00:15:59 unlawful means under New York state law. We could also ask the flip side of this question. Should the alleged violation of a state election law be used against a presidential candidate, Levinson wrote? The hush money trial may be our only answer to the question of whether the criminal justice system can withstand the behavior of someone like Trump. That's too bad. All right, that is it for what the left and the right are saying, which brings us to my take. So I've written a lot about the merits of this case, and now that the jury has issued their verdict, I haven't really changed my mind. I want to reiterate some of my main points. I haven't really changed my mind. I want to reiterate some of my main points. Alvin Bragg introduced a new legal theory against the former president for underlying actions on which the statute of limitations had expired. He stacked the charges. He pursued the case despite

Starting point is 00:16:56 other prosecutors seeing the same evidence and declining to do so, and that includes Bragg himself, who faced a staff revolt for initially refusing to pursue the case. Step back and think about it. Trump entered a consensual agreement with a woman accusing him of an affair and paid her to keep quiet about the story. This is totally legal, and it's not uncommon. The only thing illegal was how he falsified business records to cover up the payment, typically a misdemeanor, which Bragg has turned into a felony offense worthy of jail time by tying it to intent to violate a state election law. These charges never would have been and never have been brought against anyone else. Fraudulent business records

Starting point is 00:17:36 are a pretty run-of-the-mill misdemeanor crime, something Bragg has called the bread and butter of his office. Yet in order to prove a federal crime, Bragg had to show those records were falsified with the intent to commit a state election interference crime, which strikes me as a lot. Remember, Bragg had to prove that the, quote, intent to defraud included an intent to commit another crime or to aid or conceal the commission thereof, end quote. The other crime Bragg just proved Trump broke or intended to break is New York election law section 17-152, conspiracy to promote or prevent an election. Any two or more persons who conspire to promote or prevent the election of any person to a public office by unlawful means, end quote. Trump was very obviously guilty of the basic actions Bragg's

Starting point is 00:18:23 case rested on. The paper trail for the payments to cover up the story were hilariously obvious. Trump himself admitted to it, and Stormy Daniels' account of the events also made it seem likelier than not that the affair actually happened. In short, I think Trump had the affair, paid Daniels to stay quiet, and falsified business records to cover it up. It's very hard to think otherwise. Nobody, not Trump, not Cohen, not Daniels, not Bragg, not Judge Merchant, left this case looking good.

Starting point is 00:18:57 You can find me expounding on all of these ideas in past Tangle editions that are in this podcast or in the newsletter. Now, that doesn't mean my assessment is right. As anti-Trump conservative writer Tim Miller put it, quote, seems like Alvin Bragg understood the quality of his case better than the Twitter experts and Trump apologists did. Just last week, in an edition about Texas Governor Greg Abbott pardoning Daniel Perry, I emphasized that a jury of Perry's peers all had the relevant facts to make a determination in the case, and they all came to the conclusion he was guilty. Is it unfair of me to have a different standard here? Perhaps, but my quandary here isn't the jury so much as the purported federal crime. I suppose it's possible

Starting point is 00:19:37 I'm just another Twitter expert or Trump apologist, but I would not denigrate to an amateur level the very many actual legal experts who loathe Trump and also thought this case was, in so many words, very questionable. For some conservatives, like Tucker Carlson, this case is apparently a watershed revelation that our justice system is broken and can produce unjust outcomes. For people like me, it's just a reminder. Yes, I am pretty shocked Trump got convicted. In a podcast that will go up on Sunday, which we recorded moments before this verdict came

Starting point is 00:20:12 down, you'll hear me very wrongly predict a hung jury or an acquittal. I also think this ruling sets an incredibly dangerous precedent for the country. There is zero doubt in my mind that Republicans will find a way to prosecute Biden for crimes that will seem ridiculous to half the country once he is out of office. There are other strong criticisms of Bragg and the left more broadly related to this case. For one, I think this trial quickly turned into a democratic brand of election denial. One idea central to the arguments prosecutors made was that Trump's victory in 2016 was aided by keeping the story secret. Second, I think it's important to concede that Trump's victory in 2016 was aided by keeping the story secret. Second, I think it's important to concede that Trump's legal team had a strong defense

Starting point is 00:20:50 strategy on the table they did not pursue, and that they basically blew it. There are now different avenues for his team to appeal, and they very well may win an appeal. That's just something to keep in mind. That said, I still do not join the critics who go so far as to say this outcome makes us a third-world country, or that it spells an end to democracy, or that the left is willing to assassinate Trump to keep him from winning in 2024, as Carlson also suggested. I do not think it is a reminder of what you get when attorneys general are ambitious, partisan elected officials, and when a jury pool's nearly homogeneous politics impacts a case. I do think it is a reminder of what you get when attorneys

Starting point is 00:21:30 general are ambitious, partisan elected officials, and when a jury pool's nearly homogeneous politics impact a case. For whatever it's worth, I actually thought Judge Juan Merchant, despite his obvious political ties to Democrats, played his hand better than he's getting credit for. He had a couple unbecoming moments, but was more fair than a lot of people on the right are claiming. Ultimately, this decision was the jury's, not his. Plenty of people are going to disagree with me on plenty of these points, and that's fine. I happen to think Trump is actually guilty of other crimes, like mishandling classified documents and criminal acts while attempting to overturn the 2020 election results, but I happen to think Trump is actually guilty of other crimes, like mishandling classified documents and criminal acts while attempting to overturn the 2020 election results, but those cases don't

Starting point is 00:22:10 seem to be headed to trial before the election. Maybe this small, rather backward outcome is a kind of cosmic justice for the grand sum of his misdeeds, but it doesn't feel very just to me. Putting all this aside, the politics here are still worth discussing. A lot of people seem convinced this conviction is going to help Trump. I am not one of those people. Yes, he will have a fundraising bonanza. Some very wealthy people are already pledging to support him now. The WinRed fundraising website crashed last night, and the dollars from grassroots donors are going to continue to pour in, as they have throughout Trump's campaign. But guess what else? By the end of last night,

Starting point is 00:22:50 I had four friends text me and ask me if Trump can still run for president. He can. We often forget that a lot of Americans have about 15 minutes a day to spend on this stuff, and it's going to matter to a great deal of most of those people that one of the major candidates asking for their vote is tagged as a convicted felon. It's well known by now, but one poll even found a quarter of Trump voters saying Trump should not be the Republican nominee if he is found guilty in one of his criminal cases. More recently, a Quinnipiac survey released last week found that about 23% of independents said a guilty verdict will make them less likely to vote for Trump, while 11% said more likely.

Starting point is 00:23:31 If you believe those numbers, it's a net negative 12% swing for a former president who lost in 2020 and whose party has been losing close competitive elections consistently since 2016. competitive elections consistently since 2016. Remember, Trump lost in 2020 before January 6th, before the classified documents case, before the E. Jean Carroll allegations, before Roe v. Wade fell, before his business fraud case, before the January 6th cases in D.C. and Georgia, and before being convicted in this case. Sorry, but I have a hard time believing that on net he is in a stronger position now than he was four years ago. Polls be damned. Obviously, that doesn't mean Trump won't win. He very well might. Biden is a weak candidate. 2024 is still six months away. This story is going to feel like it was a decade ago by the time we get to the election, and this could play out in a bunch of

Starting point is 00:24:23 nuanced ways by then. For instance, Biden is currently leading Trump among high-propensity voters, those most likely to turn out, while Trump leads Biden among all voters. Assuming this verdict energizes voters on the sidelines more than those already committed to vote, which it might, Trump could benefit from more people participating in the election in 2024. Yet, I always come back to the main thing. Just like in 2020 and 2016, the winner of this race is going to need moderates and independents to win close races in the critical swing states. I struggle to see how this outcome is going to help Trump with those voters, especially after he spends the next several months promising revenge and counter-prosecutions,

Starting point is 00:25:05 which he will. Trump is a very good politician with incredible instincts. He's a tremendous fundraiser and a professional at emphasizing his own victimhood, simplifying his talking points, and attacking his enemies. Even with all that, though, I'm doubtful he can turn this into a net positive, and I'm still skeptical that his position heading into 2024 was ever all that strong in the first place. All right, that is it for my take. As I mentioned at the top, we're doing a bit of an abbreviated podcast today, so I'm going to jump straight to the numbers section. The percentage of registered Republican voters who said in December 2023 that Donald Trump should not be the Republican nominee if he is convicted of a crime, even if he wins the most votes in the primary, was 32%. That was

Starting point is 00:26:02 according to a New York Times-Siena College poll. The percentage of U.S. voters who said it makes no difference to their vote if Trump is found guilty in his hush money case was 67%, according to an NPR-PBS NewsHour Marist poll released on the day the verdict came out in this case. The percentage of U.S. voters who said they would be less likely to vote for him if he is convicted is 17%. The percentage of U.S. voters who said they would be less likely to vote for him if he is convicted is 17%. The percentage of U.S. voters who said they would be more likely to vote for him if he is convicted is 15%. The percentage of self-identified Trump supporters who said they'd reconsider their support for him if he was convicted in the New York case was 16%, according to a May 2024 ABC News Ipsos poll. And the amount

Starting point is 00:26:41 raised by the National Republican Congressional Committee after the verdict was announced was $300,000. That surpasses the $175,000 it raised on the day Mike Johnson was elected Speaker of the House. All right, and last but not least, your Have a Nice Day story. Dr. Richard Schoelier, a professor at the University of Sydney, has announced that he remains cancer-free one year after undergoing a new treatment for glioblastoma, one of the most aggressive and deadly forms of brain cancer. He has a skilled physician to thank for applying a new immunotherapy method to treat his tumor, himself. Dr. Scolier, who is a director at the Melanoma Institute Australia, teamed up with

Starting point is 00:27:25 co-director Georgina Long to develop the treatment plan together, for which the pair was jointly named the NSW Australian of the Year. The New York Post has the story, and there's a link to it in today's episode description. All right, everybody, that is it for today's podcast. If you have thoughts about this special edition and Trump's verdict, you know where to reach me, Isaac at readtangle.com. Stay tuned for our Sunday podcast coming out where I say a bunch of stuff that has aged very poorly in the last 24 hours. And I'll be back here on Monday. Have a good one. Peace. The logo for our podcast was designed by Magdalena Bacoba, who is also our social media manager. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet75.

Starting point is 00:28:29 If you're looking for more from Tangle, please go to readtangle.com and check out our website. We'll be right back. becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is nearly double the historic average of 52,000 cases. What can you do this flu season? Talk to your pharmacist or doctor about getting a flu shot. Consider FluCellVax Quad and help protect yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages six months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur,

Starting point is 00:29:39 and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at FluCellVax.ca.

Tangle - SPECIAL EDITION: The Trump guilty verdict.

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