Tangle - Sweden and Finland bid for NATO.

Episode Date: May 19, 2022

Plus, an update on primaries, and a reader question about the baby formula shortage.You can read today's podcast here.You can subscribe to Tangle by clicking here or drop something in our tip jar by clicking here.Our podcast is written by Isaac Saul and produced by Trevor Eichhorn. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75.Our newsletter is edited by Bailey Saul, Sean Brady, Ari Weitzman, and produced in conjunction with Tangle’s social media manager Magdalena Bokowa, who also created our logo.--- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/tanglenews/message Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Hey everybody, Trevor here, your friendly neighborhood producer. I just wanted to pop in and say on behalf of Isaac, myself, and the rest of the Tangle team, thank you for your patience. I know that this episode is dropping into your feeds a number of hours later than usual. It's always been and will continue to be incredibly important for Isaac and I to bring you the news that you trust us with, that you depend on reliably every single day. We know that you have routines and we want to continue to be a part of those routines. So we always try and hold up our end of that bargain.

But you know how life goes. Sometimes it gets in the way of the things you have planned. Unexpected things happen. You got to pivot. You got to adapt. So we thank you for your patience and your continued support now and always. Without any further ado, here's Isaac with your daily news. From executive producer Isaac Saul welcome to the Tangle Podcast,

the place where you get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking, without all that hysterical nonsense you find everywhere else, I'm your host, Isaac Saul, and on today's episode, we are going to be talking about NATO expansion. Sweden and Finland both bidding to join NATO, what it means, some responses from commentators here in the West, and a few from abroad as well. Before we jump in, though, I want to start off with a brief update on what's happening in the primaries across the United States. There were a few closely watched primary races yesterday that could not be easily summarized in our quick hit section, so here's a little bit about what you need to know. In Pennsylvania, Dr. Mehmet Oz,

who was endorsed by Donald Trump, is carrying a slight, very thin lead in the GOP Senate primary, which could be headed for a recount. John Fetterman, the Democrat who is known as a progressive, defeated Conor Lamb in the primary on the other side, despite news of Fetterman's stroke last week. Doug Mastriano, also endorsed by Trump, won the Republican primary for governor and will face State Attorney General Josh Shapiro. In North Carolina, Representative Madison Cawthorn lost his primary to State Senator Chuck Edwards and will now exit Congress. Trump-endorsed Ted Budd won the North Carolina Senate primary and will face former state Supreme Court Justice Sherry Beasley.

Representative Mike Simpson, the Republican from Idaho, and Representative Brian Fitzpatrick, the Republican from Pennsylvania, both regular critics of Trump, easily defeated challenges from pro-Trump candidates. In Idaho, Republican Governor Brad Little defeated Trump-endorsed Lieutenant Governor Janice McGeechan. And finally, all across the country, progressive Democrats are celebrating a series of high-profile wins over more establishment candidates. Mail-in ballots are still being counted in several states across the U.S., and results are not final in many of these races, so we'll continue to update you as time goes on. Next up is our quick hits section. Number one, President Biden used a speech in Buffalo on Tuesday to blast the great replacement theory and warn about the threat of white supremacists and gun violence. Number two, the FDA authorized Pfizer's COVID-19 booster vaccine shots for children aged 5 to 11. Number three,

Mariupol officially fell to Russia yesterday after the last Ukrainian soldiers defending a steel plant in the city center surrendered to Russian forces. Number four, Elon Musk reiterated that his deal to take over Twitter cannot move forward until the company proves that fewer than 5% of its users are fake. Number five, Pentagon officials testified before Congress on UFOs yesterday, citing 400 unexplained incidents but no proof of alien life. Alright, that brings us to our main topic today, which is NATO expansion. This morning, Finland and Sweden formally submitted applications to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, ending their longstanding neutral positions.

Sweden has maintained neutrality for nearly 200 years, while Finland's neutrality has become so ingrained in global affairs that many have suggested a Finland-zation of Ukraine as a resolution to the war. Now, though, the two countries are attempting to join the Western alliance, whose expansion Russian President Vladimir Putin said he was trying to counter with his war. If their bids to join NATO are successful, they would double the length of NATO allies' border with Russia. Both Sweden and Finland have highly advanced, well-funded militaries that have conducted exercises with NATO in the past. All 30 current NATO nations must agree for their memberships to be accepted.

Typically, this process can take about 8 to 12 months, but NATO wants to move rapidly to avoid potential retaliation from Russia. Leaders from Canada have said the ratification could happen in mere days or weeks. However, there are already some bumps in the road. On Tuesday, member state Turkey announced its opposition to allowing the two countries to join NATO. Sweden has taken in hundreds of thousands of refugees from the Middle East, including ethnic Kurds from Syria, Iraq, and Turkey. Turkey's president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, accused both countries of not having a clear

open stance against terrorists. He said they would need to end their support of the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, a militant group that Turkey, the U.S., and the European Union have all designated as a terrorist organization. While Turkey's opposition took the West by surprise, many diplomats expressed confidence that both countries would be accepted, framing Turkey's position as a political play to gain certain concessions. In America, there seems to be a widespread agreement on this issue from the right and the left, so we are going to include a few perspectives from those writers, as well as a couple of pieces of commentary from abroad and then my take. Hey guys, this is Isaac here. If you are listening to this podcast, it's probably because you're interested in finding some common ground. If that's the case, I have a great recommendation for you. It's a new podcast called Let's Find Common Ground. They are's the case, I have a great recommendation for you. It's a new podcast called

Let's Find Common Ground. They are trying to do the opposite of what a lot of other news organizations do, which is seize on fear, anger, distrust, and division. Remarkable, innovative people who are working to bridge differences and reach an understanding with those who see the world a little differently than they do are having conversations on this podcast every day. You'll hear from politicians, scholars, activists, journalists, and everyday people. They share their personal stories about finding common ground on race, the environment, criminal justice reform, and all the other controversial topics you can think of. New podcast episodes are released every two weeks, and you can join hosts Richard Davies and Ashley Milne-Tight for Let's Find Common Ground.

You can find episodes at commongroundcommittee.org slash podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. That's commongroundcommittee.org slash podcasts. So first up, we'll start with what some folks in the United States are saying. Most U.S. commentators support accepting Finland and Sweden into NATO. They point out that Putin's war has backfired in many ways, but this may be, and even should be, the biggest. Some express caution about NATO expansion, though, and call for the allied nations to move more deliberately. The Chicago Tribune editorial board said Putin wanted to deter NATO expansion, but now he's making it essential. His military offensive in Ukraine's eastern Donbass region increasingly shows sign of sputtering, the board wrote.

Britain's latest round of sanctions targeted the Russian leader's ex-wife, a former Olympic gymnast long believed to be his girlfriend, and three of his cousins. Chicago-based McDonald's has joined a caravan of Western corporations leaving Russia for good, and the country's GDP is expected to shrink 12% this year, its worst economic contraction in 30 years. But arguably, the worst news for Putin came with both Finland's and Sweden's recent decision to join NATO, the Western military alliance that the Russian president regards as his country's primary nemesis. Even worse for Putin, NATO leaders have said they plan to fast-track membership for the two Nordic nations, it said. One of the ways Putin had justified the war in Ukraine to fellow Russians was that it was necessary to fend off

NATO's expansion up to Russia's borders. Now, because of the invasion and the barbarism his soldiers have displayed in once-beseased Ukrainian towns like Bucha, NATO is poised to establish itself along Russia's northwest flank, which shares roughly 800-mile border with Finland. Putin has only himself to blame. Though Sweden and Finland have maintained 200 years of strategic neutrality in Europe, the populations of both countries now see Russia as an existential threat and feel safer within the fold of NATO. The National Review editors said Finland and Sweden belong in NATO.

If either or both countries decide to sign up to NATO, they should be welcomed unequivocally, the editor said. For reasons of geography alone, and they have more to contribute than that, they will bolster the defense of NATO's exposed Baltic flank. As things currently stand, the Baltic states are linked to Poland, and thus the rest of NATO, by a narrow corridor near the Polish city of Swalke that separates Russia's Kaliningrad exclave from Moscow's Belarusian client state. Should Russia seal that Swalke gap, the Baltics would, for most practical purposes, be on their own. Bringing Finland just a few miles across the Baltic Sea from Estonia into the

alliance would go a long way to reducing the dangers that Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia could be cut off from their allies, they added. It thus ought to reduce the danger that today's less risk-averse Russia would be tempted to try its luck by detaching the Baltic trio and then daring the rest of the West to respond. While Finland has not spent as much as it should on defense, then that's changing, it has well-equipped armed forces and the combination of its history and its geography has meant that it maintained conscription. Finland's regular armed forces are small, but mobilizing reserves would take their numbers to over 250,000, with potentially hundreds of thousands more behind them. In MSNBC, Zishin Alim said Putin's plan to make NATO weaker has made it stronger. Russian President Vladimir Putin has got to be feeling very, very bad about all this, Alim wrote.

To the extent that Putin thought invading Ukraine could serve as a strategic bulwark against NATO, his plan has been a catastrophic failure. Ukraine's extraordinary military performance, bolstered by a steady flow of high-tech lethal aid from the West, warded off the swift conquest Moscow had hoped for. Now Russia is fighting in the Donbass region, hoping perhaps to bite off a chunk of the eastern territory to save face after its failure to even come close to fulfilling its initial goal of regime change. But even if Russia is able to achieve some kind of territorial gain in Donbass, and that is an open question, it's hard to see how Russia is better off in relation

to NATO than before the invasion. After all, Moscow had already been meddling in the Donbass region since 2014, and its backing of separatist forces there had already been effective at helping keep Ukraine out of NATO. Experts say that part of the reason Ukraine's status was perpetually deferred was because NATO couldn't allow Ukraine in until Russia ceased its meddling in Donbass, otherwise NATO would have had to declare war on Russia the minute Ukraine joined NATO. In other words, Russia was already doing quite a lot with a light touch. Now, with a heavier hand, it has made things worse for itself. In Newsweek, Daniel DePetris cautioned that NATO shouldn't rubber stamp Finland's membership. This isn't because Finland has a mediocre military or fails to meet NATO standards, DePetris said. Given the Finnish military's recent

history of training exercises with the alliance, it wouldn't take much work to fully integrate the Nordic nation into NATO's structures. Bringing another member into NATO, however, is a weighty decision that comes with serious and solemn defense responsibilities for the rest of the alliance. This is particularly true for the United States, which, by virtue of its size, military heft, and leadership role in NATO's own institutions, the alliance's top general has always been an American, has carried NATO on its back ever since the organization was established 73 years ago. Russia, for instance, won't take too kindly with NATO doubling the size of its joint border, Dmitry said. The Kremlin has already telegraphed that it could respond to the decision

with deployments of nuclear missiles into the Baltic region. The Baltic Sea could become a highly congested body of water with NATO and Russian vessels in more frequent contact. Moscow may not hold a veto over who gets to be a NATO member state, but it does have the power to retaliate at a time, place, and mode of its choosing. Simply stated, the larger the alliance is, the more territory its member states will need to defend in the event of a security crisis. By granting Finland membership, the U.S. and the rest of the alliance are in effect saying they are willing to fight a war with Russia, even a potentially nuclear one, in order to defend Finnish territory. All right, so that is some opinions from the U.S. Now here are two opinions from abroad.

The first is from Anders Fogh Rasmussen, the former prime minister of Denmark and former secretary general of NATO, who said NATO should welcome Finland and Sweden enthusiastically. Both countries would receive the security guarantee of NATO's Article 5 on collective defense, and NATO would gain new capabilities in a strategically important region. This convenient buffer zone between Russia and current NATO members would make it easier to react to any incursion by Russian forces into the Baltic states. While the debate on membership continues, the Kremlin's propaganda machine will go into overdrive. It will warn against further NATO expansion, claiming it will destabilize the region and make war more likely. Of course, this is not the case. The only person destabilizing

Europe is Mr. Putin. Russia targeted Ukraine and Georgia before that precisely because they are not members of NATO, Rasmussen added. Russia's international strategy is to threaten escalation in order to bully less powerful countries into submission and push more powerful ones toward inaction. In this war, Mr. Putin threatened to target NATO convoys bringing weapons to Ukraine and to cut off gas supplies to Europe if bills were not paid in rubles. On both of those issues, the West called Russia's bluff. The threats did not materialize. If Sweden and Finland do join NATO, especially in the face of such threats, it would show Mr. Putin that a war is counterproductive, that war only strengthens Western unity, resolve, and military preparedness.

In Turkey's pro-government paper, the Daily Saba, Muhittin Ataman laid out the reasons Turkey had its doubts. First of all, we have to underline that Turkey does not oppose the eastward enlargement of NATO. Turkey has generally supported NATO's expansionism, he wrote. However, after some leading NATO members began to otherize Turkey and remained indifferent to Turkey's security concerns, Ankara decided to question some NATO moves, such as the enhancement of NATO's military presence in the Baltic states. Turkey will not allow the membership of these two states

while they support anti-Turkish actors, including terrorist organizations. The record of Sweden is especially problematic due to its position as a safe haven for anti-Turkish political groups. Both states have been supporting the PKK, the Gulenist terror group, and Revolutionary People's Liberation Front militants and allowing them to carry out anti-Turkish activity. In addition, Sweden has been imposing embargoes against Turkey, mainly due to Ankara's opposition to terrorist organizations. Alright, so that is it for some stuff from the US and abroad, which brings us to my take. I think this is excellent. I also think it's telling.

More than anything else, Sweden and Finland making a bid to join NATO should put to bed any questions about whose narrative is closer to the truth, the West's or Putin's. As I've written here before, there are reasonable arguments out there about NATO's expansion provoking Putin, but they are mostly distractions from the core issues here. The idea that NATO expansion was the crux of Putin's desire to invade Ukraine has always beggared belief. He invaded primarily because he believes Ukraine, a country of 40 million free people, belongs to Russia, exists underneath its umbrella, and he fears the tide of a thriving democracy taking hold there. Amidst this war,

many U.S. commentators on both the left and right have sold a narrative that neatly aligns with Putin's. It goes a little something like this. America is a perpetual aggressor, more interested in drawing Putin into a long, costly war than they are in protecting Ukraine or Ukrainians. Putin's decision to invade Ukraine was a rational and predictable move, given NATO's growing presence in Eastern Europe. How would America respond if China put soldiers inside Canada, some have, they think, cleverly asked? Let Sweden and Finland present the counterpoint. For over 200 years, through dozens of conflicts, untold aggression, and international spats, the two nations have managed to simply

stay out of it. They have kept both sides happy by maintaining an unabashed neutrality. They have stood confidently in the belief that their neutrality would protect them. Even up until the Ukraine war began, neither country seriously believed that Russia was a big enough threat to join the alliance. Now, they have changed their minds. It is not America forcing their hand. In fact, allowing them to join, as De Petris notes, expands the territory America and its allies will be responsible for. Sweden and Finland are not joining NATO because America is an imperialist aggressor that forced Russia to invade Ukraine. They are joining NATO because they recognize their neighbor, Vladimir Putin, is on a pathological

tear through a country that is no threat to him, murdering innocent civilians for the cause of capturing a nation he is never going to be able to rule. They are joining NATO because they understand that securing their future freedom requires it. They are joining NATO because they know, as I and many others have warned repeatedly, there is no logical reason to believe Putin will stop at Ukraine. Finland's Prime Minister, Sanna Marin, put it plainly in just seven words, quote, Russia is not the neighbor we imagined, end quote. If they join, it'll be a boon to the West.

The territory is strategic gold, and both nations bring militaries well advanced of Ukrainians that were built to survive without NATO's help. With any luck, the news will be cause for some self-reflection. If the dead civilians, dead soldiers, debilitated economy, exodus of 4 million civilians, and strengthening of the Western alliance won't wake Putin up to his mistake, nothing will. Alright, that is it for my take on today's main story, which brings us to your questions answered. This one is from Jim in Dawsonville, Georgia, who said, How much baby formula did the federal government buy for the children of illegal aliens, and when did they buy it? Did they exasperate the baby formula shortage favoring illegal aliens

over citizens? Okay, so I've gotten a few questions about this story and I've seen it percolating online. I think it started with Texas Governor Greg Abbott, a Republican, and Representative Kat Kamek, the Republican from Florida. They shared photos of empty shelves alongside others of pallets of baby formula for undocumented immigrants at the border. The thrust of the allegation seems to be that the federal government is taking care of migrant babies while ignoring American citizens. I'm not really sure what you'd have us do, to be honest. For starters, from a purely moral perspective, our government should be making sure children

in our care after arriving at the border are being fed. Migrants are being held in detention facilities. They can't scour store shelves for formula or order something online. They are under arrest. If we don't provide them with food or water or their babies with formula, they die. There is literally no other option for them. That is why by law, and again, by conscience, forget the law, we should be doing this morally, in my opinion, we are required to care for asylum seekers and migrants who cross into the U.S. Even if you don't agree that we should be doing that, it is undeniable that we are required to. The Flores Settlement from 1997 says that facilities must provide, quote,

drinking water and food as appropriate, end quote, to minors being held in U.S. facilities. It is not ambiguous. So yes, since babies are sometimes some of the people crossing into the U.S. illegally, baby formula is necessary at the border. Again, it's the law. Donald Trump followed the law in the same way because he had to. There is no choice. Babies who end up on U.S. territory got formula under his direction too. Finally, though, I just want to say there is literally no reason to believe this is exasperating the shortage at all. The facility that picture came from houses around 1,200 people. I'd bet the number of babies there eating formula is fewer than 100.

What's happening nationwide is on a scale so much larger than that, so much larger than what a few pallets of the border could impact, that it is hard to put into words. Through the WIC program alone, which is this government subsidized program for families that are more impoverished or poor, one million babies receive formula. We're talking about a $5.81 billion market and our supply is 43% lower than it should be due to the issues we discussed here on Monday. So yes, undocumented immigrant babies are getting formula at the border. Yes, I think they should. Yes, we are required to provide it to them by law. And no,

I do not think it is having anything to do with why there's a formula shortage across the country. formula shortage across the country. All right, that is it for our questions answered, which brings us to today's story that matters. The United States is in the middle of a gun buying boom, according to new data from the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives. The new report is the first comprehensive federal look at gun commerce in nearly 20 years. The annual number of firearms being manufactured has tripled since 2000 and spiked in the new report is the first comprehensive federal look at gun commerce in nearly 20 years. The annual number of firearms being manufactured has tripled since 2000 and spiked in the last three years specifically, according to the New York Times. Beginning in 2009, the popularity of Glock-type handguns for personal protection started outselling rifles, which are typically

purchased for sport. The police also recovered 19,344 homemade weapons known as ghost guns in 2021, a tenfold increase from 2016. There are currently about 400 million guns in the U.S. according to gun ownership surveys. The New York Times has the story on this report and we also have a link to the actual report itself from the ATF in today's newsletter and you can go find it there. All right, next up is our numbers section. The number of free COVID-19 tests you can now order from the government online is eight. The number of Americans who believe the pandemic is over is one in three. The number of founding member countries of NATO

was 12. The number of NATO member countries today is 30. The length in miles of Finland's border with Russia is 800. The length in miles of the U.S. border with Mexico is 1,954. All right, last but not least, our have a nice day section. A Nepali man has climbed Mount Everest for the 26th time, breaking his own world record again. Kamirita Sherpa has already held the world record for summiting the climbing mecca and the world record of reaching the summit 5 times in 4 years. But after COVID-19 largely shut the mountain down, Kamirita got back to it the first

chance he could. The 52-year-old began his lifelong experience on Everest after his father was one of the first professional guides in the 1950s. Kamirita worked as a porter transporting gear to the base camp when he was 12 at a time when international climbers were only just being allowed on the mountain. Now he is the king of the hill, with the world record in hand as he continues to separate himself from the pack. NPR has the story. There's a link to it in today's newsletter. All right, everybody, that is it for the podcast.

As always, if you want to support our work, go to readtangle.com and subscribe to our newsletter or readtangle.com slash membership and become a paying supporter. You can also do that with some links in the episode description. If not, you know, whatever. We'll just keep doing this for free and we'll see you tomorrow. Same time. Have a good one. Peace. Our newsletter is written by Isaac Saul, edited by edited by bailey saul sean brady ari weitzman and produced in conjunction with tangle's social media manager magdalena bakova who also helped

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