Tangle - The California primary elections.

Starting point is 00:00:00 From executive producer Isaac Saul, this is Tangle. Good morning, good afternoon and good evening, and welcome to the Tangle podcast. Place you get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking, and a little bit of my take. I'm your host, Isaac Saul. Happy Thursday. We're one more work day away from Friday, which is basically Saturday, which makes this pretty much the weekend, right? I'm guiding you through a story today. California's unusual set of elections that took place this week. Very, very interesting outcomes still coming in. Also, in case you missed it,

Starting point is 00:00:51 want to let you know that yesterday we've recorded a episode of Suspension of the Rules, our weekly talk show podcast, which is in this feed. You can find it by looking at the feed right now. And we covered a lot of ground, including the flesh-eating cattle, parasite, screw worm. Unlike Hansa Virus or Monkey Box, I think this actually has a good chance of becoming a major problem for the United States. And I use my perch in this episode to talk a little bit about what might happen, what might be coming. So it's a very good episode yesterday's recording of

Starting point is 00:01:24 suspension of the rules, which came out this morning. Highly encourage you to go check it out. It's also up in our YouTube channel. If you prefer video, you can find us at Tangle News on YouTube. And yeah, this one, this one's worth your time. One last thing before we jump in, quick reminder that we are coming to the stage in West Virginia. We are going to be in Berkeley Springs, West Virginia next weekend, nine days from now, Saturday and Sunday, VIP dinner Saturday night, matinee live recording of the podcast on Sunday. Incredible, beautiful, awesome historical little town in the heart of West Virginia. Highly, encourage you guys to check out tickets, consider driving, flying out. It'll be worth the trip. It's

Starting point is 00:02:08 going to be a really, really special night. There's a link to tickets in the episode description, also up on our website by going to readtangle.com forward slash live. With that, I'm going to send it over to John to break down today's show, and I'll be back for my take. Thanks, Isaac, and welcome everybody. Here are your quick hits for today. First up, a bit of breaking news. John Bolton, who served as National Security Advisor during the first Trump administration, has reportedly agreed to plead guilty to mishandling classified information. Bolton could receive a sentence of up to 60 months in jail and a fine of up to $2.25 million as part of his plea deal.

Starting point is 00:02:52 Number two, Iran carried out airstrikes in Kuwait, killing at least one person and injuring 63, in addition to striking the country's international airport. The attacks could further strain U.S. Iran peace negotiations. Separately, the House voted 215 to 208 to pass a war powers relative. resolution aimed at limiting the Trump administration's ability to carry out further unilateral military action against Iran. Four Republicans joined all Democrats in supporting the measure. Number three, the House voted 218 to 204 to advance a security package with over $1 billion in new military aid for Ukraine and new sanctions on Russia, among other provisions.

Starting point is 00:03:31 Six Republicans, one independent, and all Democrats voted to pass the measure. Number four, President Donald Trump said he will nominate Acting Attorney General Tynol. Blanche to succeed Pam Bondi as Attorney General. Number five, the Trump administration proposed 10% to 12.5% tariffs on 60 economies that it claimed have failed to ban goods produced with forced labor, justifying the duties under Section 301 of the Trade Act's provisions against foreign trade practices harming U.S. commerce. And number six, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rawlins said that a case of New World Screw Worm was detected in a three-week-old calf in Texas, raising concerns about a potential outbreak

Starting point is 00:04:09 among U.S. livestock. Now to the primary election in the races, everybody's watching results for the race for governor and the race for L.A. mayor still up in the air. The ballots still being counted. In Los Angeles County, ballots are being processed at the center in the city of industry. The L.A. County registrar saying tonight that more than 700,000 ballots still need to be processed. On Tuesday, California held its primary elections, headlined by the gubernatorial and Los Angeles mayoral races. With 56% of the votes counted in the gubernatorial primary,

Starting point is 00:04:50 Conservative commentator Steve Hilton leads former health secretary Javier Becerra with 27.6% and 25.6% of the vote respectively. Businessman Tom Steyer is in third with 19.8%. Separately, with 62% of the votes counted in the Los Angeles mayoral primary, Mayor Karen Bass leads all candidates with 35% and will advance to the general election. Former reality TV star Spencer Pratt has earned 29.9% And city council member Nithia Rahman is third with 22.8%. The race for the second spot in the runoff is still too close to call.

Starting point is 00:05:24 A note that California allows elections to be conducted by mail and all ballots are valid if postmarked by Election Day and delivered to county election offices within seven days of the election. Because of this system, some races may take weeks to determine a winner. For context, in 2011, California implemented a top two primary system for state constitutional offices, state legislative offices, and U.S. congressional offices. Presidential elections use party primaries. Under the system, all candidates for an office are listed on a single primary ballot, and the two candidates receiving the most votes, regardless of party, advanced to the general election. In the Los Angeles mayoral primary, if any candidate receives 50% or more of the primary vote,

Starting point is 00:06:06 they win the election outright. If not, the top two vote getters progress to a runoff in the general election. California Governor Gavin Newsom is term limited, and several candidates are vying to fill his office. In the months preceding the primary, state Democrats worried that the significant number of prominent party members in the race would splinter the vote and allow two Republicans to advance. However, President Donald Trump's endorsement of Hilton, a former Fox News anchor and conservative political strategist, boosted his candidacy, while former Representative Eric Swalwell's exit from the race amid sexual misconduct allegations cleared a key portion of the Democratic field. While the race is still too close to call, Bacera and Hilton are favored to advance. Mayor Bass, who served in Congress from 2011 to 2022,

Starting point is 00:06:51 is running for a second four-year term as Los Angeles's mayor. She has faced scrutiny for her handling of the Southern California wildfires, which devastated large areas of the Los Angeles metropolitan area over more than three weeks in January 2025, killing at least 31 people and destroying thousands of homes and other structures. Pratt, a first-time candidate known for starring on the reality TV show The Hills, lost his home in the fires, and focused his campaign on criticism of Bass's response and her perceived shortcomings on crime and homelessness issues.

Starting point is 00:07:22 Rahman presented herself as a progressive alternative to Bass, highlighting housing affordability challenges and lackluster city services. Major news decks have projected that Bass will advance to the general election, while Pratt and Rahman are in a close contest for the second spot. Today, we'll share with the left, right, and California writers are saying about the races, and then Isaac's take. We'll be right back after this quick break. The left sees the governor's race as a crucial decision for California Democrats. Others criticized the state party for lacking the energy of its past.

Starting point is 00:08:11 In The Guardian, Norman Solomon said Democrats face a huge crossroads in the California governor's race. The next governor of Deep Blue California will almost certainly be a Democrat. But what kind of Democrats, Solomon asked? Tom Steyer promises to up and up. then corporate power and give California a sustained progressive jolt. If he wins, the country's largest state party will probably go through a major ideological change. Javier Becerra is central casting for the kind of political sensibilities that have

Starting point is 00:08:37 dominated the state party, which internally boosts identity politics above rhetoric aside, such considerations as economic justice, labor rights, public health, environmental protection, or peace. The rivalry between Becerra and Steyer can also be understood as a skirmish in a nascent conflict between Governor Gavin Newsom and Representative Rokana, whose evident presidential ambitions have more than a little riding on this election, Solomon said. If Steyer becomes governor presumably aligned with Kana, that could boost the congressman's uphill quest to overtake Newsom for the Democratic nomination.

Starting point is 00:09:11 In the American prospect, Harold Meyerson asked how California politics became so lacklustic. At least as far back as 1910, when progressives swept to power and remade the state, California politics have been movement politics and opposition. positional politics, Meyerson wrote. The kind of intensity of belief and support that powered the rise of AOC and Zora Mamdani, and has historically powered the movements that once fed into and shaped California's Democratic Party has been absent from California politics this year, save in a number of hyper-local races. If such a movement can cohere around the wealth tax proposal that will be on November's ballot, that might provide the kind of boosted needs to begin to grapple with the state's

Starting point is 00:09:49 dysfunctional two-tier economy, Meyerson said. Absent that, California, Democratic, Democrats will have politics without passion, save when repealing ISIS marauders, and without plausibly passionate candidates. All right, that is it for what the left is saying, which brings us to what the right is saying. Many on the right say Californians reject progressive candidates in key races. Others say Spencer Pratt offers a model for a post-Trump GOP. The Wall Street Journal editorial board wrote about November portents from the primaries. While the mail ballots in California are still coming in, it's not too soon to detect

Starting point is 00:10:32 a modest backlash against bad progressive governance. Mr. Hilton would have an uphill battle given California's Democratic tilt, yet he'll have plenty of material, starting with how the state's high taxes and burdensome regulations drive away businesses and people, the board said. Billionaire Tom Steyer was more a distant third. Mr. Steyer backs the California wealth tax that's on the November ballot, while Mr. Bucera says he's opposed. In the Los Angeles mayor's race, incumbent Karen Bass was at roughly a third of the vote, no show of strength. Spencer Pratt, running on a reform agenda was several points ahead of socialist councilwoman that the Aramon, the board wrote. The surprising enthusiasm for Mr. Pratt's campaign is about more than AI video

Starting point is 00:11:12 showing him as Batman. It reflects how many residents are angry over the city government's many failures. Mr. Pratt might get five months to make the case that he can fix it. In the American conservative, Scott Greer described Spencer Pratt's GOP. While Spencer Pratt has his own style, he's made his name in a similar way Trump did back in the 20th. 2016 campaign. In contrast to his opponents, Pratt knows how to entertain, Greer said. One of Pratt's core issues is L.A.'s homeless problem. In stark contrast to his opponents, he's not a fan of the homeless. He lashes out at the city's leaders for allowing drugged out zombies to wander the city's streets uninhibited. None of his opponents would ever dare talk about the issue in

Starting point is 00:11:53 these terms, but Pratt does, and that's why he's getting so much support in Deep Blue L.A. There's a lot of discussion over what the GOP will look like when Trump leaves office. It's commonly thought that it may replace the persona of Trump with a more coherent ideology of Trumpism, Greer wrote. Pratt shows a different path. It will retain Trump's entertaining combativeness, but in a style that's not a direct copy of the precedent. It won't be particularly ideological, besides opposing leftists, criminals, illegal aliens, and the homeless. It will be pragmatic and at peace with most cultural trends. In this scenario, Trumpism will be more of a style than a cohesive ideology.

Starting point is 00:12:33 All right, that is it for what the left in the writer sang, which brings us to what California writers are saying. Some say the election will result in more of the same for California. Others advocate for Hilton and Pratt as change makers. In the Los Angeles Times, Mark Z. Baraback said the governor's race will end in the most consistent and predictable of ways. California has never elected a female governor. That won't change in November.

Starting point is 00:12:56 voters have never much cared for rich people trying to buy the state's highest elected office. They still don't. The California electorate has typically favored experience over youth and flavored bland and boring over razzle-dazzle. It continues to do so, Barbeck wrote. For all the speculation about one political party or the other being shut out in Tuesday's primary, the November runoff may very well turn out to be a thoroughly conventional Democrat versus a Republican matchup. Javier Bacera has a political persona that could be marketed as a sleeper. but Becerra's even-keeled demeanor seemed the perfect prescription following the overnight implosion of Eric Swalwell's scandal-scarred campaign, Barbeck said.

Starting point is 00:13:35 It was not likely, but the mere prospect of Democrats being shut out of the November runoff was enough to guarantee such a scenario would never happen in this reliably blue state. The California Post editorial board called Steve Hilton and Spencer Pratt the change California needs. The primaries are a judgment day for politicians who failed to defend our communities from wilds. fires, homelessness, crime, and drugs, the board route. Steve Hilton has been working on solutions for California for many years. He's not just a critic who complains about the state and predicts due. He looks for practical answers and policies that we could adopt today if we had the political will, ideas like suspending the gas tax, ending income taxes under $100,000 and

Starting point is 00:14:17 investigating fraud in state government. Spencer Pratt wasn't looking to run for mayor. He was thrust into it when his community went up in flames, and what should have been a minor disaster at worst, became the costliest natural disaster in American history, the board said. Pratt decided to do something about it, so that no one in L.A. would ever have to face that kind of unnecessary loss again. Pratt's campaign represents a chance for voters to tell Mayor Bazz and other elected officials that there is a political price for failure. All right, let's head over to Isaac for his take. All right, that is it for the left and the writer's saying, which brings us to my take.

Starting point is 00:15:02 At a moment when a deeply unpopular Republican president is in the White House, one might think that elections in California's deep blue political scene would be deeply uninteresting. But that couldn't be further from the truth. Counterintuitively, California has more registered Republicans than any state in America. Texas might have more Republican voters, but due to differences in the electoral systems, California has more registered Republicans with 5.8 million. This number, of course, is due to the state's size. Republicans still make up just 25% of its registered voters, but it means conservatives in the state always have a chance to make some noise, particularly with a top two jungle primary system.

Starting point is 00:15:47 This year, California's gubernatorial race and Los Angeles's mayoral race are both drawing national interest, thanks to some attention-grabbing Republican candidates. In the gubernatorial race, Steve Hilton, is framing his candidacy as a last chance to save California. to voters that it's time to make a change after 16 years of Democratic leadership. I interviewed Hilton on this podcast about a month ago, and I can see why he's got a foothold. He's a likable guy who can speak deftly about his love for America, why he immigrated here from England, and what California used to be like when he arrived. His platform focuses on over-regulation, cost of living, homelessness, and under-employment in the state, all areas where Governor Gavin Newsom is right for criticism.

Starting point is 00:16:32 I think Hilton grossly exaggerates the negative impacts of policies designed to mitigate environmental harm, and I think his decision to downplay climate change is a legitimate issue is going to turn off most California voters. But he's wisely grounded his campaign in real, tangible policy issues instead of the culture war stuff that dominates so much of U.S. politics, a smart move that bucks the trend of dark horse candidates focusing on culture war issues. He's also got the benefit of a discombobulated opposition. Newsom is a deeply polarizing figure. Representative Eric Swalwell was leading in most polls until he dropped out amid allegations of sexual harassment.

Starting point is 00:17:12 Former Representative Katie Porter, once considered a frontrunner, never refound her footing after a pair of embarrassing videos went viral. That left Tom Steyer and Javier Bacera as the likely frontrunners. Steyer is known for his stilted personality, which doesn't compare favorably to Hilton's effusive stifist. He also had an impractical and bizarre presidential bid in 2020, which cost him $340 million and earned him just 270,000 votes. The self-funded billionaire has already dumped more than $200 million of his own money into this race, positioning himself as a kind of class trader to voters, the anti-billionaire's

Starting point is 00:17:50 billionaire. His website calls for higher taxes on corporations and billionaires like him, and he's generally running to the left of Newsom, who in recent years has become a chance. check on the state's progressive bent, at least on most of the big issues. Bcerra, meanwhile, has by far the most experience of the bunch, but he's also the most establishment approved and politically moderate. In today's climate, that's more a liability than a strength. He was a California representative for more than two decades, then served as the state's attorney general, and then served as health secretary under the Biden administration. Neither Hilton nor Steyer is really close in terms of qualifications, though experience also means

Starting point is 00:18:29 baggage, and Becerra will have the distinct disadvantage of having to defend Biden's record, Newsom's record, and his own record as Attorney General throughout the campaign. Do I think Hilton has a chance in this environment? Not really. Bacera, even with his political baggage, will point to the hundreds of lawsuits he's filed against President Trump and the expansion of health care under Biden as evidence he's ready to fight for California Democrats. He oozes competence on the campaign trail, and though he has fewer sweeping plans for government expansion than Steyer, that might be a leg up in this environment. It's hard to think of anyone better equipped to navigate California's governing structure. For most of the state's registered

Starting point is 00:19:08 voters who aren't Republicans, I imagine that'll be more compelling as a package than being a Trump-endorced former Fox News host banging on about how awful California is and how much climate change policy is to blame. A few hundred miles south of Sacramento, another race defined by dissatisfaction is capturing a lot of people's attention. In Los Angeles, Mayor Karen Bass, the Democrat, may end up in a head-to-head with Republican Spencer Pratt, who is running as an independent and stumping hard against Bass's record on homelessness, drug use, government spending, and wildfire accountability. Pratt is currently second in the runoff election, though votes are still being tallied and that could change. Running as an incumbent used to be a strength, but these days it often feels like an

Starting point is 00:19:53 albatross. Grievance politics are ascendant and coming on. office anti-establishment can mean more than an identifier next to your name. While Bass was in Ghana during the Palisades Fire, despite promising not to travel internationally as mayor, and had overseen cuts to the Los Angeles Fire Department, Pratt and his family lost their home in the fire and have since taken up the fight for some government accountability for what happened. Pratt's similarities to Trump extend beyond their shared background on reality TV. He simplifies big issues with flashy ideas like insisting homelessness can be solved by forcing addicts into treatment. He uses incendiary rhetoric, like claiming housing NGOs in Los Angeles, are literally killing the homeless.

Starting point is 00:20:34 He even reaches into the bag for nicknames like calling Bass Mayor Basura using the Spanish word for trash. If Pratt advances, Bass will have a hard time weathering his attacks about Los Angeles' $1 billion budget gap, its persistent homelessness problem, and the hard to deny failures of the response to the Palisades fire. But Pratt has his own red flags. His sister warned Angelinos that he's running in pursuit of fame and to sell a forthcoming memoir, and she alleged that he beat her and used to be a member of a cult. He's a former 9-11 conspiracy theorist who appeared on Alex Jones radio show in 2009 to claim the attacks were an inside job.

Starting point is 00:21:13 His residency requirements have been called into question after he moved to Santa Barbara, and, as we discussed on the Tangle podcast this week, he has built his entire campaign to address homelessness by flattening the complex crisis combining housing costs, addiction, mental health, and the justice system into only a drug addiction problem. The sum of all of this has been rather remarkable. Campaign strategist Luis Alvarado told CBS, I haven't seen a race this close in decades, especially in the city of Los Angeles. Anecdotally, I've heard from a surprising number of longtime Democratic voters in Los Angeles, even some progressive voters who are legitimately considering punching a ballot for Pratt.

Starting point is 00:21:53 He raised more money than any candidate than the race, and the way the media attention works, I suspect he'll get tens of millions of dollars worth of free press if he advances. Is Pratt the favorite? Of course not. He may not even make it to the general election. But unlike Hilton, I can't shake the feeling that if he survives to a runoff, he's got an actual shot at upending decades of political assumptions in America's second largest metropolis. Even in a loss against Bass, a competitive race could serve as a shot across the bow of the Democratic establishment. I'll be watching very closely. We'll be right back after this quick break.

Starting point is 00:22:42 All right, that is it for my take, which brings us to your questions answer. This one's from Kerry in Castle Rock, Colorado. Carrie said Democrats said that the big beautiful bill was going to raise taxes on everybody, but the rich. I just saw Treasury Secretary Besson on a White House briefing on CNN, that most Americans got a bigger tax refund for 2025, which is true. Okay, first off, we should clarify that Democrats weren't claiming that the one big, beautiful bill would raise taxes on everyone except the rich. They argued that the bill's tax cuts would disproportionately benefit the wealthy. But the underlying question of whether this claim can coexist with Bessons is a good one. It is actually

Starting point is 00:23:22 possible for them both to be true. Yes, many Americans receive larger tax refunds in 2025 than in 24. According to IRS filing data, as of May 8th, the average tax refund amount was $3,276, while the average at this time last year was $2,939. The OBBBA's tax cuts for 2025 are partially responsible for these larger-than-usual refunds because the IRS did not update its withholding tables to reflect those tax cuts. This meant that many Americans ended up having too much money withheld from their paychecks, which larger refunds. That won't happen again in 2027 because the IRS is using new withholding tables that factor in the one big beautiful bill tax changes. However, looking at refunds alone isn't the best way to measure tax impacts on Americans. Instead, many economists and tax experts

Starting point is 00:24:16 look at the overall tax burden, which is usually defined as the total amount that Americans pay through national, state, local, and sales taxes. Here, the true impact of OBBBA is contested. Some analysts at the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy argue that for a majority of Americans, the OBBBA's tax cuts were more than offset by the end of the enhanced Obamacare credits at the end of 2025 and the impact of tariffs, while the richest Americans still mostly benefited from the tax cuts. In contrast, tax experts at the Tax Foundation have argued that the one big beautiful bill act results in more money in the average taxpayers' pockets. All right, that is it for your question to answer. I'm going to send it back to John for the

Starting point is 00:24:59 rest of the pod, and I'll see you guys tomorrow. Have a good one. Peace. Thanks, Isaac. And now for the road not taken. This week, we strongly considered covering the Trump administration's plans for America's 250th anniversary celebration, the scrapping of the $1.776 billion anti-weaponization fund, and Scott Pelley's firing at 60 minutes. Monday's edition on the newest grand platinum controversy seemed fixed, so most of our debate happened on Monday afternoon. We decided to cover the Trump accounts over the anti-weaponization fund updates and anniversary celebration because we believe those stories were ongoing, so we agreed to wait before giving them full coverage. Then our Wednesday and Thursday decisions were basically made for us, despite the rapid developments in the 60-minute story on Wednesday afternoon. The Bill Pulte nomination and Spencer Pratt's competitive performance in the Los Angeles mayoral primary were simply too immediate, multi-dimensional, and impactful for us to skip.

Starting point is 00:26:01 And last but not least, R have a nice day story. Dogs have become near-perfect partners for search and rescue operations, but they have one key limitation, working underwater. For Michael Hadsell, the president of Peace River Canine

Starting point is 00:26:15 Search and Rescue in Florida, the solution to this problem came in the form of an otter. After observing similarities to how otters and dogs are trained, he brought on Splash, an Asian small-clawed otter, and began training him in Peace River's work.

Starting point is 00:26:29 The animal's natural intelligence fine-tuned to sensory organs, and ability to hold its breath for up to five minutes, make it well-suited for recovery missions underwater. Over more than 20 missions, Splash has helped find a weapon used in a 25-year-old murder case and located human DNA on a clay brick at the bottom of a lake in a separate murder case.

Starting point is 00:26:49 As a reward, he receives pieces of salmon, preferring farm-raised to wild-caught. Good Good Good has this story, and there's a link in today's episode description. All right, everybody, that is it for today's episode. As always, if you'd like to support our work, please go to reetangle.com, where you can sign up for a newsletter membership, podcast membership, or a bundled membership that gets you a discount on both.

Starting point is 00:27:10 Our latest episode of Suspension of the Rules is available on Spotify, Apple Music, and you can even watch the full podcast episode on YouTube. A reminder that in just 10 days, we are coming to West Virginia, Isaac and a panel of sharp thinkers are going to be discussing the societal effects of artificial intelligence. They'll tackle questions like, what would happen if AI disappeared today versus five years from now? Who makes a stronger case between the cynics and the optimists? And could we ban AI even if we wanted to?

Starting point is 00:27:38 It's going to be a really great chat. You can get your tickets with the link in today's episode description. We'll be right back in your ears on Monday, folks. For Isaac and the rest of the crew, this is John Law signing off. Have an absolutely wonderful weekend, y'all. Peace. Our executive editor and founder is me, Isaac Saul, and our executive producer is John Wall. Today's episode was edited and engineered by Dewey Thomas.

Starting point is 00:28:04 Our editorial staff is led by managing editor Ari Weitzman with senior editor Will Kayback and associate editors Andre Moorhead, Lindsay Canuth, and Bailey Saul. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75. To learn more about Tangle and to sign up for a membership, please visit our website at retangle.com.

Tangle - The California primary elections.

There aren't comments yet for this episode. Click on any sentence in the transcript to leave a comment.