Tangle - The debt ceiling standoff intensifies.

Starting point is 00:00:00 Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages six months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at flucellvax.ca.

Starting point is 00:01:00 From executive producer Isaac Saul, this is Tangle. Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening, and welcome to the Tangle podcast, the place we get views from across the political spectrum. Some independent thinking without all that hysterical nonsense you find everywhere else. I'm your host, Isaac Saul, and on today's episode, we are going to start with one major announcement and one reminder because it's Thursday. First, the major announcement. It has been a long time coming, but today I'm thrilled to announce that we finally have a date for our first ever live Tangle event, August 3rd, 2023 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The event will be held at Brooklyn Bowl, Philadelphia, and we'll be bringing the experience of the Tangle podcast live to the stage, where we are going to explore one topic

Starting point is 00:02:05 through a moderated discussion with guests from opposing sides of an issue. I will be hosting and moderating with opportunities for a meet and greet before the show and an audience Q&A afterward. This event is going to include drinks. It's going to be held at a venue that has food. It's in Philadelphia, which is a great city. Tomorrow, we are going to be held at a venue that has food. It's in Philadelphia, which is a great city. Tomorrow, we are going to be releasing password-protected pre-sale tickets for paid subscribers only. So if you are on our paid subscribers mailing list, you will get an email tomorrow with some information about the event and a password to go ahead and buy tickets. We're giving our subscribers first dibs. And then on Monday, tickets will go on sale to the general public.

Starting point is 00:02:50 I will remind you here, but I wanted to let you know that the date is out. The tickets are coming. We are super excited. This is a really big moment for me. I've really been wanting to bring the Tangle community together live in person for a very long time.

Starting point is 00:03:04 And I'm really excited about the prospect of standing up an events business. I think this could be a really awesome way to spread Tangle and to get all of you together in the same room. So thank you so much for all the support that got us here. Please, please, please, please come to the show. Consider buying tickets. We want to sell this baby out because it will lead to more shows in different cities. And that would be really, really fun. So tomorrow, tickets go on sale, pre-sale for paid subscribers. And then Monday, the tickets go on sale to the general public.

Starting point is 00:03:35 And I will remind you here, August 3rd, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Thank you very much. Okay, so that's the event. The second thing I want to let you know is we have another YouTube video that just dropped. It is up on our YouTube channel right now. It is a 20-minute long video that takes a big, wide, broad look at the immigration issue on our southern border with some solutions from the right and the left. And then my take, I know we've covered the border a little bit.

Starting point is 00:04:03 Well, we've actually covered a good bit, but with very specific lenses. This is sort of a broad, what does each side want to do about the US-Mexico border and what do I think we should do? It's getting a lot of good early feedback. So go to YouTube, type in Tangle News, check out our YouTube channel, check out the latest video, and let us know what you think. There will also be a link to the video in today's episode description. Okay, event, YouTube video, that out of the way. We're going to kick things off, as always, with our quick hits. First up, Montana Governor Greg Gianforte signed a bill into law banning TikTok from being downloaded or operated in the state, the first state to implement such a ban. It is expected to undergo legal challenges.

Starting point is 00:04:52 Number two, the Supreme Court rejected applications for emergency relief from a gun rights group and gun store owner trying to block an Illinois law that bans semi-automatic rifles. Number three, House Republicans blocked an effort to expel Georgeautomatic rifles. Number three, House Republicans blocked an effort to expel George Santos from Congress. Number four, an Islamic extremist convicted of killing eight people in Manhattan by driving his truck through a bike path in 2017 received a life sentence plus 260 years in prison on Wednesday. Number five, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Russia had agreed to a two-month extension of the UN-brokered Black Sea grain deal needed to stabilize global food prices. We begin this morning, though, with some possibly hopeful signs in the ongoing standoff over raising the debt ceiling.

Starting point is 00:05:49 The president is in Japan this morning. He arrived earlier today and will take part in the G7 summit tomorrow. But he plans on cutting the trip short so he can get back to Washington over the weekend to continue negotiating a deal with congressional leaders. to continue negotiating a deal with congressional leaders. President Biden and congressional leaders said they made progress on Tuesday towards a compromise to raise the debt ceiling before June 1st. If they fail to do so, economic experts warn there would be dire financial consequences. The immediate impacts of a default that lasts more than even a few days would likely affect all of us.

Starting point is 00:06:22 Stock prices, for example, are expected to fall by almost a fifth and wipe out $10 trillion in household wealth, according to projections by Moody Analytics. Negotiations over the debt ceiling appear to be coming to a head. President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy reiterated on Wednesday that they are determined to reach a deal to raise the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling and avoid a potential default, with McCarthy indicating a deal could be struck as soon as this weekend. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has reiterated that a deal must be struck by June 1st or the federal government will run out of money to pay its bills. A quick reminder, the United States government regularly spends more money

Starting point is 00:07:05 than it collects in revenue. To cover this yearly shortfall called the deficit, the government borrows money by issuing government securities or bonds. Investors lend that cash with the expectation the government will pay them back with interest. Those loans make up our national debt. The debt ceiling established in 1917 during World War I is the legal limit on how much debt the federal government can incur. To avoid defaulting on our loans, which would downgrade our credit and set off an economic crisis, the debt ceiling has been raised nearly 100 times since its inception. You can watch our debt ceiling explainer video on YouTube or read our debt ceiling explainer piece, both of which are linked to in today's episode description.

Starting point is 00:07:45 On Tuesday, Biden and McCarthy met at the White House with the Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell, House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries, and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. Republicans are insisting Democrats agree to spending cuts in exchange for a deal to raise the debt ceiling again and have passed their own legislation to do so. McCarthy has also said he won't accept a deal without increased work requirements for certain social safety net programs. Also central to the negotiations are how long the debt ceiling should be raised for and what caps to put on what federal spending. Meanwhile, Biden has said he won't support work requirements for Medicaid health

Starting point is 00:08:19 insurance, which serves low-income Americans, while McCarthy has said he won't support raising taxes on the wealthier businesses, which is a key part of Biden's 2024 budget strategy to raise revenue. Biden has left the door open for some work requirements, perhaps for programs like food stamps. Meanwhile, a few Senate Democrats are calling on Biden to invoke the 14th Amendment to declare the debt ceiling unconstitutional and push forward without Republicans. This path is legally perilous, we have a link explaining it in today's episode description, but appears to be growing in popularity among Senate Democrats worrying that a deal may not be struck in time.

Starting point is 00:08:55 Section 4 of the 14th Amendment says, quote, the validity of the public debt of the United States authorized by law includes debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion shall not be questioned. Some Democrats believe this is a guarantee the U.S. will always make good on its debt and actually frames the 1917 debt ceiling law as unconstitutional. The Washington Post reported that six Democratic senators, including progressives like Bernie Sanders from Vermont and Tina Smith from Minnesota and moderates like Angus King from Vermont, are suggesting Biden take this path or at least prepare for it. On Wednesday, Biden left for the G7 summit of world leaders in Japan, though he has decided to cut his trip short and come back early in the event a deal isn't struck while he's abroad. in the event a deal isn't struck while he's abroad. Any deal would require the support of dozens of House Democrats and a healthy number of Senate Democrats, according to Punchbowl News,

Starting point is 00:09:49 which is why some Democrats fear a passable deal won't be landed. Today, we're going to break down some arguments from the left and the right about the debt ceiling negotiations and then my take. All right, first up, we'll start with what the left is saying. Many on the left strongly oppose work requirements and criticize Republicans for trying to implement them. Some argue that Biden should simply ignore the debt ceiling and keep paying our debt even if we breach it. Others say Biden should invoke the 14th Amendment to take the power out of congressional Republicans' hands. In the New York Times, David Firestone said Republicans are using the debt ceiling to inflict cruelty on the poor. The debt ceiling battle might seem like an abstract argument over federal spending,

Starting point is 00:10:42 but for millions of low-income Americans who depend on the federal government for health care and basic nutrition, the debate is about their very lives. That's because Republicans have singled them out yet again as a prime target in this year's extortion scheme. Republicans' bill passed in Congress would effectively cut off health care for 1.7 million low-income people and cut off food stamps for 275,000 people. There's no crisis or scandal gripping these programs. Republicans are making these demands simply because the debt ceiling gives them the opportunity to do so, and they are persistently ignoring that the vast majority of people receiving these benefits already work. In 2021, 61% of the 25 million people on Medicaid were working full-time or part-time jobs.

Starting point is 00:11:26 The rest were retired or disabled or taking care of small children or in school. Similarly, most food stamp recipients work, and able-bodied adults younger than 50 are required to work in order to get more than three months of benefits in three years, unless they are taking care of children. In the Los Angeles Times, Neil H. Buchanan and Michael C. Dorff say the best way to deal with the debt ceiling is to ignore it. The problem is that if Biden makes any concession as the price of raising the debt ceiling, it will encourage Republicans to take the global economy hostage again and again. After all, their proposal would provide

Starting point is 00:12:00 only a short respite from extortion, setting the stage for another showdown less than a year from now, they said. Conventional wisdom is that if Congress fails to raise or suspend the debt limit, the president has to choose who to pay and who to stiff. But this conventional wisdom is wrong. The Constitution assigns the power to spend money to Congress, they said. Biden could no more fail to pay the nation's bills than he could refuse to serve as commander in chief of the armed forces. Once we hit the debt ceiling, Biden will bump into a constitutional obstacle no matter what he does. Failing to spend appropriated funds, raising taxes, or borrowing money to pay the bills would all infringe on Congress's constitutional powers.

Starting point is 00:12:39 So, they wrote, he should pick the least unconstitutional option, which is to instruct the Treasury Department to continue to issue bonds sufficient to cover the shortfall between taxes and appropriations, just as it always does. In the New York Times, Lawrence Tribe explained why he changed his mind on the debt limit and now thinks using the 14th Amendment is constitutional. Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight.

Starting point is 00:13:21 Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza cases have been reported across Canada, which is nearly double the historic average of 52,000 cases. What can you do this flu season? Talk to your pharmacist or doctor about getting a flu shot. Consider FluCellVax Quad and help protect yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages six months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at FluCellVax.ca. The question isn't whether the president can tear up the debt limit statute to ensure that

Starting point is 00:14:04 the Treasury Department can continue paying bills submitted by veterans' hospitals or military contractors or even pension funds that purchase government bonds, Tribe said. The question isn't whether the president can, in effect, become created these debts in the first place, can invoke an arbitrary dollar limit to force the president and his administration to do its bidding. There is only one right answer to that question, and it is no, Tribe said, and there is only one person with the power to give Congress that answer, the president of the United States. As a practical matter, what that means is this. Mr. Biden must tell Congress in no uncertain terms, as soon as possible before it's too late to avert a financial crisis, that the United States will pay all its bills as they come due, even if the Treasury Department must borrow more than Congress has said it can. All right, that is it for the leftist saying, which brings us to what the right is saying. First up, some on the right support work requirements and argue that Republicans have a strong proposal to enact them. Others say these negotiations should focus on fraud and

Starting point is 00:15:20 clawing back money given out during the pandemic. Some criticized the 14th Amendment proposal as a gross abuse of executive power. In Fox News, Newt Gingrich said the Republican Medicaid plan shows how to make work requirements work right. While the Congressional Budget Office estimates the Medicaid work requirements in the bill will save $109 billion over the next 10 years, the money savings are not why the reform is so important, Gingrich said. The House plan is built on the highly successful unemployment reforms Republicans passed in 1996. Prior to the 1996 reforms, our nation's welfare system had become a poverty trap. That's because its focus was on making poverty less uncomfortable rather than lifting people out of poverty. The dignity of work was disregarded.

Starting point is 00:16:08 Including work requirements in Medicaid would build on that success, he wrote. There's ample evidence that Medicaid coverage without work requirements creates a disincentive to work. In 2005, Tennessee disenrolled 170,000 individuals, 91% of whom were childless adults. A 2013 analysis from NBER found an immediate increase in job search behavior and a steady rise in both employment and health insurance savings. These requirements would also be better for the health of enrollees, not only because higher income correlates with better health outcomes, but also because more time in the workforce leads to better jobs that provide health benefits, which are usually better than Medicaid. And the Washington Examiner David Walker said Biden and Congress must address PPP fraud. What has not yet been addressed is the need to stop failed bipartisan extraordinary measures of utilizing high-risk

Starting point is 00:16:56 government-sponsored lending and grant programs to stimulate the economy, which, by emboldening bad actors and creating economic bubbles, has contributed to the current fiscal mess, Walker wrote. The government has flooded the market with cash time and time again, but this recession mitigation strategy has inflated America's debt and increased cases of fraud while ballooning the frequency of these federal debt ceiling showdowns between the two political branches of government. The Paycheck Protection Program is a recent example of this problem. The government took the program is a recent example of this problem. The government took the program too far and failed to incorporate adequate internal controls to prevent fraud and abuse. Given that two recessions in 15 years involve reckless government

Starting point is 00:17:35 lending and grant programs, we need these negotiations to include increasing transparency and oversight over federal lending and grant activities and holding the fintechs and other bad actors accountable for their fraud. Lawmakers should also work toward clawing back billions of taxpayer-funded fees that went to companies that enriched themselves during the pandemic by committing obvious fraud. National Review's editors called Joe Biden's 14th Amendment folly. Biden is musing aloud about violating his oath of office and seizing powers not granted him by the Constitution in order to avoid negotiating with the House of Representatives. This is a shameful way for the president of a constitutional republic to act, they said. The so-called 14th

Starting point is 00:18:17 Amendment option to have the president issue debt not approved by Congress doesn't actually exist. Until 2023, nobody in the executive branch has ever pretended that it does. The Constitution is quite explicit. Congress and only Congress has the power to borrow money on the credit of the United States. Congress and only Congress has the power to raise revenue, and all bills to do so must start in the House, they said. The framers were quite open in designing the system to give Congress the power of the purse so that it could bring the executive to heel. Section 4 of the 14th Amendment, designed to ensure the repayment of Civil War debts even over Southern objections, barred the federal government from repudiating its existing debts. But it did not explicitly

Starting point is 00:18:59 or implicitly change the allocation of power to issue new debt. All right, that is it for the left and the rightist saying, which brings us to my take. So reading all these arguments, I am left with the overarching feeling that this is just not how any of this should be done. The 14th Amendment stuff is just a bridge too far for me. While Tribe, under what the left is saying, raises some compelling points from a legal perspective, I can't get over the emotional element of it, the practical element of it, the historical element of it. Never once has any administration interpreted the 14th Amendment that way, and never once has anyone tried to exercise it in this way. Biden should not start now.

Starting point is 00:19:50 In a presidency that has included so much executive action and consolidated power, I think it would create more instability, more political hostility, and ultimately might fail in the courts. This is not the way out. Negotiating is. When it comes to negotiations, I also don't think this is how work requirements should be implemented in any budget or policy proposal around welfare programs. Work requirements are very complicated, and if they are going to be implemented, it should probably

Starting point is 00:20:16 happen at the state level. For instance, Arkansas experimented with them in 2018, and it went very badly, and the program was eventually struck down by a judge. A study later found 13% of people lost their health coverage and no significant change in employment occurred. I think these conditions, if they are to be implemented, need to be done much more carefully than this. If Republicans want work requirements for Medicaid, there are plenty of other ways to do it. They can convince a handful of Democrats in each chamber to come to their side and pass legislation implementing them. They can create enough political pressure on Democrats to implement them. They can win enough seats in Congress or win the White House so you don't need Democrats to implement them. Or they can find a legal way to

Starting point is 00:20:58 do it at the state level. The way not to do it is to force them through federally, knowing it is a stark red line for half of Congress with the stability of our economy hanging in the balance. So, similar to my feelings on the 14th Amendment, I'm just left thinking this is not how this should be done. As it happens, Americans appear to broadly favor work requirements, so Republicans' options on how to use the democratic process to pass them are basically wide open. It's especially hard to swallow this given how the last couple years have played out. Representative Matt Gaetz, the Republican from Florida, argued for work requirements by saying, quote, I don't think hard-working

Starting point is 00:21:34 Americans should be paying for all the social services for people who can make a broader contribution and instead are couch potatoes. As Firestone noted under what the right is saying, Gates also requested a $141.5 million earmark for a helicopter training hangar in his district. If you're going to be fiscally responsible, then do it. Many Republicans were not so careful when they had control of Congress. I'm glad Biden and McCarthy and congressional leaders are negotiating. I hope they soon come to a deal, and I'm fine if that deal includes a short-term debt ceiling lift, some spending cuts, and maybe even some very modest work requirements applied to certain programs. But the most important thing is not

Starting point is 00:22:14 defaulting, not making drastic budgetary or policy changes in a moment like this, and not taking a constitutionally untested path that would set off legal battles and more instability. I'm simply hoping both sides step off that ledge. All right, that is it for my take. We're skipping today's reader question to just give you another reminder we got a new video out on YouTube. This is, again, a broad look at the border crisis with some analysis of the left and right's biggest arguments on how to solve it, complete with graphics and data and videos and my thoughts on the overarching issue we should resolve. Again, the video is in today's newsletter, it's on our YouTube channel, and it is linked to in today's episode description. All right, next up is our under the radar section. Since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade,

Starting point is 00:23:07 Republicans have underperformed in elections at nearly every level, and many pollsters are now increasingly convinced the two are related. Jacksonville, Florida just elected its second Democratic mayor in 30 years on Tuesday, despite the Republican nominee being endorsed by popular governor Ron DeSantis. In Colorado Springs, Colorado, independent Yemi Mobilati was elected as the first non-Republican mayor since 1979. Local media called the win a political earthquake. In Pennsylvania, Democrats held on to a one-seat House majority in a special election in Philadelphia's suburbs, which will allow them to block a GOP bill to limit abortion rights. One caveat, in Philadelphia, a tough-on-crime Democratic candidate for mayor prevailed convincingly, a signal that Republicans' stance on policing has resonance there.

Starting point is 00:23:54 Still, Democrats have outperformed their 2020 results by an average of six points across 18 legislative races this year. Axios has the story with some potential explanations of why this is so, and there's a link to it in today's episode description. All right, next up is our numbers section. The share of Republicans who say they support requiring Medicaid or SNAP benefit recipients to show proof of work to receive benefits is 80%. The share of independents who say they support requiring showing proof of work is 66%, and the share of Democrats who support it is 49%. The share of Americans who favor cutting Medicare

Starting point is 00:24:35 or Social Security to reduce the deficit is just 22%. The percentage of Americans who think a failure to raise the debt ceiling followed by a default would be a crisis is 37%. The percentage of Americans who said that a failure to raise the debt ceiling followed by a default would be a crisis is 37%. The percentage of Americans who said that a failure to raise the debt ceiling followed by default would be a major problem but not a crisis is 40%. The percentage of Americans who think Republicans should agree to raise the debt ceiling only in return for spending cuts is 64%. All right, and last but not least, our have a nice day story. A Georgia resident is

Starting point is 00:25:09 transforming rundown buildings into affordable housing, and there appears to be no building that can scare her off. Margie Stagmeyer has taken several rundown properties in Atlanta and turned them into safe spaces to live with fair rents. She is a quote-unquote affordable housing innovator and recently launched a non-unquote affordable housing innovator and recently launched a non-profit that offers after-school programs at the apartments while partnering with local schools, health clinics, and other organizations for residents. At one complex, Stagmeyer was able to renovate units for $45,000 each rather than rebuild them for $130,000, which allowed her to keep rent at $725 per month instead of $1,300 per month.

Starting point is 00:25:46 Those kinds of decisions are garnering her national attention. The Week has the story, and there's a link to it in today's episode description. All right, everybody, that is it for today's podcast. As always, if you want to support our work, please go to readtangle.com slash membership. Don't forget, tomorrow we are releasing tickets, pre-sale tickets to our first ever live event. We're sending a password-protected ticket sale to paying subscribers only. So if you want to receive that or have been waiting to subscribe to Tangle, this is a great time to do it. Readtangle.com slash membership. Otherwise, there'll be an opportunity to buy tickets on Monday if they don't sell out, which I kind of hope they do. But I, of course, want

Starting point is 00:26:29 everybody to get a chance to buy them. So I kind of hope they don't. But I really want to sell a lot of tickets to this. So please consider coming to the event. We'll be right back here on Monday. Either way, have a great one. Peace. 75. For more on Tangle, please go to readtangle.com and check out our website. Based on Charles Yu's award-winning book, Interior Chinatown follows the story of Willis Wu, a background character trapped in a police procedural who dreams about a world beyond Chinatown. When he inadvertently becomes a witness to a crime, Willis begins to unravel a criminal web, his family's buried history, and what it feels like to be in the spotlight. Interior Chinatown is streaming November 19th, only on Disney+. The flu remains a serious disease. Last season, over 102,000 influenza

Starting point is 00:27:50 cases have been reported across Canada, which is nearly double the historic average of 52,000 cases. What can you do this flu season? Talk to your pharmacist or doctor about getting a flu shot. Consider FluCellVax Quad and help protect yourself from the flu. It's the first cell-based flu vaccine authorized in Canada for ages six months and older, and it may be available for free in your province. Side effects and allergic reactions can occur, and 100% protection is not guaranteed. Learn more at FluCellVax.ca.

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Tangle - The debt ceiling standoff intensifies.

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